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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Twins have had some success adding/working a splitter into a pitchers mix as a weapon before, so maybe they'll be able to work Bradley's up into a better position that he can keep it working effectively. It sounds like if he has that working it makes a real difference for him. TB has an excellent development program, so it's a little chancy to say that we're going to be able to "fix" Bradley better/faster than TB would, but sometimes a player needs a new voice and new environment to have things sink in or just hearing the same message in a different way helps someone put it together. We've plucked a good from them before, worked with him to make adjustments in pitches and mix to see great success, so while presuming we can do what TB did not is probably a little too arrogant, you also shouldn't presume that anyone who TB will trade isn't salvageable or that they can't be improved either. There's a lot of talent there and it'll be interesting to see if he can put it together. I'm less concerned about the infield defense behind him right now, even if it means he's giving up some extra hits right now. Process will matter a bit more than results for the rest of this (lost) season, so if he's getting ground balls and limiting the dingers again, they can look at infield defense in the offseason. In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and sell the team!
  2. jmlease1
    Man, I go on vacation and the Twins get a new pack of a prospects. This is going to take a while to sort through. (that said, I do believe I'll be starting or ending most of my comments with Eff the Pohlads until they sell the team) Looking forward to getting to know the new kids, but it's nice to see that Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins continue to roll along at AA. Jenkins seems to have found some of the power stroke that some people were starting to worry over (I assume some naysayer will be along to tell me that we shouldn't be happy about it because he plays in Wichita and therefore it doesn't count?). Both of these guys will be in AAA next season for sure, which is pretty great and fast development. (Thank god, because MLB is looking a little dire) I'm excited to see what the new catching prospects can do, but it's probably going to take some time with these guys. But it is nice to have some high/higher end prospects at that position. If the Pohlads can't get the team sold, Jeffers will probably get dealt in a further cost-cutting move, so we'll need at least one of these guys to develop quickly. In closing, Eff the Pohlads...sell the team!
  3. jmlease1
    No, most fans want a team that wins like MKE is doing right now. Most fans loved the Bomba Squad Twins, and they stole waaaay less bases than say the 2024 Twins. Most fans don't care how they get there, and no one was whining about how "boring" the baseball was. The team isn't good enough right now. They're not hitting enough homers; they're not hitting enough period. The starters have too many injuries and some of the young pitchers simply aren't showing out enough yet. If the Twins stole 200 bases but finished 78-82, people would be clamoring for more homers, I guarantee it.
  4. jmlease1
    SWR pitched pretty well overall, but could not finish off Bregman, who clobbered him. Was not his best inning, but he did some other good things out there. Alcala still gonna Alcala. He'll look great for weeks and then have a game like this that will tear your hair out. Nice to be on the other end of it I guess? Clemens made a bad read on Wallner's deep fly, but the BoSox Duran made a good play on the ball as well with a quick throw. If France comes through there or Vazquez doesn't GIDP it wouldn't have been a big deal. (still hoping France will get moved out, since I see no future for him here) A good win against a good team. Sort of encapsulates the team's season: good enough to beat good teams, bad enough to lose to bad ones, never know which squad will show up.
  5. jmlease1
    I think that's fine, and I agree that he should be expected to have command issues as he's finally getting back on the mound for real baseball after years of missed time for injuries. But it's a reminder that maybe he's not ready to get thrown up to MLB just yet, even though the stuff is elite. I think he's a really exciting prospect, and would be fine with him coming up to AAA. But I'd pump the brakes on him joining the MLB bullpen
  6. jmlease1
    Look, by missing the playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years (which is certainly the way this season is going), Falvey is probably going to be on the way out with a new owner. But most of what's in here...where are the facts? What specifically did Falvey stab the fans in the back with? That suggests he lied to people at TwinsFest, and I'm pretty sure that telling them he thought this team could compete wasn't a lie: a lot of people thought this team could compete. Where's the evidence that other teams and/or their players are out of Falvey? Twins fans may be done with him (mostly for not actually winning) but there's zero evidence that Twins player or other teams or other team's player's dislike or mistrust him. Where's the evidence that he grabs credit when things are good and hides when it's bad? He meets with reporters regularly, and that's never seemed to change. Where's the supposed "closed door" policy? Because he hasn't gathered up fans and given them the opportunity to throw rocks at him this year? Falvey and his team are probably all going to lose their jobs when new ownership comes in, and while I like a lot of things they've done here, the record doesn't give them enough to say they deserve more time and a new regime to work under. (I still blame ownership the most for where we're at; they totally pulled the rug out from Falvey and the front office by cutting payroll after the 2023 season) They've done some good things in rebuilding a barren farm system, and broke the playoff losing streak. But it's more than fair to say they haven't won enough to keep going. That said, some of these accusations are ridiculous.
  7. jmlease1
    How many useless outs did each guy have by bunting to move a guy from first to second? How many times did they attempt to bunt for a hit and make an out? It's lovely that Hrbek bunted for a hit once a year or so, but hopefully he didn't attempt it very often, because dude was not fast and it wasn't going to work. No one is complaining when a guy bunts for a hit. but as valuable as runs are, you score more of them when you don't sacrifice outs for a base. Weaver's teams don't make the argument for the tactic you think they do: look at who was actually making the sacrifice hits: Belanger and Blair, two fast guys (and Belanger was a terrible hitter with zero power, while Blair became a terrible hitter with little power) who were on the team for their defense. Before the DH like half of the O's SH's were from pitchers, and after the DH like half of them were from Belanger & Blair, because they couldn't do much else. Notably, by the end of the 70's Weaver's O's teams were consistently under 50 SH's in a season, not in the 70's. The people who want the next GM to build a team that bunts a lot are going to be disappointed. The people who want a manager playing for 1 run in the 4th inning are also going to be disappointed. Can they add more speed and guys who have a more varied skill set at the plate? Sure. And we've seen with picks like DeBarge that they're not opposed to drafting a fast guy who is going to add his offense by stealing bases, etc. And yes, having more guys who can lay down a bunt when you only need 1 run to win it in the 9th or extras is probably helpful (notably, it's just as useful to send the ball well into the OF with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs in the same "just need 1 run to win" situation) But there's this obsession over bunting around here that's simply inconsistent with winning.
  8. jmlease1
    When dealing with a sell-off at the deadline, how much impact does Falvey's theory on game management matter? That's a different discussion on whether or not the manager should be fired as part of a larger reshaping of the team, I think. Which isn't going to happen under current ownership, who seem highly unlikely to eat any salary on their way out the door even if it's just for the rest of this season. We can fight about who stays and who goes after the team is sold. (seem likely at this point most of the senior decision-makers will go, and it's hard to say they've done so much they deserve to stay. I suspect, however, that the next group still won't bunt enough to make some people happy...)
  9. jmlease1
    Ross will need to get his velocity up or have something else in his arsenal to do more as he advances. He's fine, I guess, but at 22 in low-A he should be pushing around those kids, and so far he's just been ok, really. He's been fine in his first pro season, but still looks more like a suspect than a prospect to me. Hidalgo is better positioned with his stuff, but he's still clearly working his way back from the injury and needs a lot of work on his command & control. He's got the stuff to hunt K's, but also doesn't always know where the ball is going, and that WHIP needs a lot of work. Maybe he can crack the Twins top 30, but I'd want to see more. Prielipp is the real prospect here: he's finally staying on the field and letting his talent shine. The stuff is filthy and you can see exactly why the Twins took a risk on him despite the injury history. He's been oddly hittable this season, however, and it's something to watch with him. Curious to see where his splits end up at the end of the season; he hasn't crushed LH hitters like you might expect, but it's also a pretty small sample. If he can stay healthy, he's a real guy, but until he gets a couple of healthy seasons under his belt it's going to follow him like a dark cloud unfortunately.
  10. jmlease1
    I've been outspoken around here that I would consider selling Joe Ryan to be franchise malpractice. I maintain that view: even with a great offer, it'll still won't be enough to replace a frontline, deserving all-star starter any time soon...if at all. But I do think the team should be looking to move guys like Bader & Castro, even if the returns aren't jaw-dropping. Bader will be in line for a multi-year deal int he offseason the way he's played for us and shouldn't really be int he twins near future plans. Castro is a valuable and fun player, but he's getting too expensive for the role, might be aging out of being an effective infielder, and his value at the deadline might be as high as it'll ever get. I would strongly consider moving either Duran or Jax (whichever would bring the most) but wouldn't back off what I consider a fair return just to move them. Their value would still be high in the off-season. I would look at the market on Brock Stewart or Coulombe if there's any real value to be had there, because I think the Twins know how to build a bullpen and considering how volatile relievers can be...that's not where you generally want to be paying out significant cash. It's the best spot to flip guys, and I'd be happy if the Twins made someone pay through the nose for one of their better relievers. I'd entertain offers on Larnach, who would be a useful LF platoon bat to a contender. Or Clemens, who put a jolt in the Twins at a good time, but is unlikely to be a core piece. By fumbling out of the all-star break against Colorado & Washington (two very beatable teams) the Twins haven't done enough to be buyers, since we know ownership isn't going to add significant salary to bring in the kind of difference-making bat they need right now. Move the pending free agents (including France), take serious offers on the relievers, promote some guys from AAA and use the rest of the season to get guys healthy and evaluate what you have in players like Lewis, Lee, Julien, Keaschall, Wallner, Sabato, Martin, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Raya, etc
  11. jmlease1
    I still like SWR quite a bit as a pitcher, and I like how he's constantly working to evolve. He might never become a guy who is considered a frontline starter, but he can also be more than just back of the rotation filler too. He's still unfinished as a product and his mindset suggests a player than won't be satisfied or stop trying to improve. If he can induce more chase with his breaking stuff and the new split, I think he can be very successful. When he's finishing off hitters efficiently, he can really get rolling. Plus, I just like the dude.
  12. jmlease1
    I'm less off on Lee than you seem to be, but I generally agree. I think there's more room for someone like Sabato to get actual PT than Eeles (I wouldn't swap Lee for Eeles at this point; while I'm rooting for him, I think there's a bit of "backup QB syndrome" going on with Eeles where he's being overestimated because we haven't seen him and he's the new shiny toy than enough indicators that he's actually going to be better than someone like Lee) I would trade one of Jax/Duran if there's a strong market with real value there, and which ever one commands the most return would be the one I would deal...but only if it's a good return. I'm not interested in something like the idiot Bowden kind of trade where we throw a team both of those guys (Bowden had us giving them Castro too!) for 1 real prospect, a suspect, and a lottery ticket.
  13. jmlease1
    I think the biggest downside to a "light sell" at this deadline is if the team isn't sold and we remain stuck in the mud for another off-season. I'm honestly not particularly worried in a real decline in value for Jax, Duran, or Ryan over the next 2 months; the track record is strong enough that it won't impact their value much. But trading Ryan in particular is a signal of surrender for 2026 and potentially beyond, and making that kind of deal needs to happen under new ownership. Beyond that, all three of those guys will have substantial trade value in the offseason. YMMV on whether it will be more or not right now, but I think it will have more varied interest where different types of talent would be available. Deal them now and it's prospects only. The upside to selling now on relievers in particular is you might get someone to overpay.
  14. jmlease1
    There's some cognitive dissonance in here: you want the AAA guys to come up, but are also basically advocating for Adams to be thrown off a cliff. There's going to eb a lot more Adams-like performances if/when they turn things over to the AAA guys. Now, I still think they should sell off (or cut if necessary) every veteran whose contract is up and won't be back next season and open up some PT and roster slots for those AAA guys...but let's be realistic on what we're going to get from most of them, including Eeles. Cossetti is a guy I can't decide on: he's been pretty good this season, but the BA is low enough that I'm still not sure he could ever hit enough to be even a decent backup. He's still catching, which is good, but is he good enough defensively? He's already 25, but is still relatively inexperienced as a pro. Just don't know about him. Nice for him to have a good day, but I just don't really see it...and I wanted to.
  15. jmlease1
    Were they? I'd argue that the Ryan/Gardy teams were fun to watch when they were winning (mostly) but watching them implode in the playoffs was as bad as anything going on today. Ryan/Gardy v1 was generally fun to watch, because teams were good, but Ryan/Gardy v2 sucked with those poor teams, which weren't very fundamentally sound, because they weren't GOOD. I mean did anyone say "hey the Twins lost 9-2 last night, but they didn't make any errors or baserunning mistakes so it was fun to watch" between 2011-2015? It's not fun right now because the team is playing poorly. But the Bomba Squad was fun as hell, and the 2023 team was fun as hell too (with a lot of very likable players). Twins front office is probably getting swept out with new ownership, so if you want them gone, pray for a sale soon. (I'm fine with this; while I don't think Falvey & Co have been bad and think they got badly undermined by ownership, at the same time they also are going to miss the playoff in 4 out of 5 seasons in an era where it's easier than ever to make the playoffs so it's not like they've earned a guarantee)
  16. jmlease1
    This is why I'm unexcited about significant sell-offs; most of what I see proposed aren't guys in the top 1/3 of the Top 100 prospects, it's guys that are in the bottom 1/3 at best. Guys that are more like Winokur or Houston than a Walker Jenkins. Offers that protect the other organization's top 2-3 guys and the expectation that the Twins should be ok with that. Screw that. You want a Jax or Duran, come big or GTFO. And frankly, I don't know there's an offer big enough to get Ryan right now, which means that the offers that are coming in are woefully inadequate.
  17. jmlease1
    You realize that Earl Weaver is one of the great managers in baseball history, right?
  18. jmlease1
    I watched it live and the only Twin I would have expected to score might have been Buxton, because he's really fast and can turn it on quickly. It was a hard-hit double and fielded well. The disappointing part of that inning was Bader striking out and not getting a ball to the OF.
  19. jmlease1
    Dealing Ryan would be franchise malpractice and a signal of surrender not just for this season but for 2026 and possibly 2027 as well. There's little chance even a supposed "godfather" deal for Ryan would actually pan out that quickly, and frankly I haven't seen even prosed deals from non-Twins Daily sources that wouldn't be far better for the team acquiring Ryan than for the Twins. If they want to make a deal with Jax or Duran, while I wouldn't be thrilled I'd be more forgiving if they got a huge offer at the deadline. It's just easier to develop relievers than frontline starters. But at the end of the day, there's no choice but to "trust" Falvey to make the decisions on this because he's the guy in charge of baseball operations. Who else is there? (and not doing anything is a choice too, probably a bad one) Ownership is stuck in the mud, which makes it hard to make bigger decisions on whether or not to tear down this core and go into a rebuild or try and redesign and reset more on the fly. Sell the team, please!
  20. jmlease1
    Nice to see DeBarge stringing together some good games at the plate. I'm still concerned about his power outage in June & July (only 2 xbhs in July is not good), but he's collecting hits again and with his speed he can add bases if he gets on at least. But he's also not taking as many walks lately either. He's not having a bad season, but he's definitely faded after a hot start. I do wonder if we'll see Julien and Sabato after the deadline if the Twins sell off some parts. Julien seems to be back on track; he's taking his walks and driving the ball pretty well, and Sabato's power is certainly playing (though I'm a little concerned that his plate discipline has slipped a bit). In other AAA news, Martin has been slumping; I still think I'd rather give him a shot over wasting a bench slot with Kiersey, but he's not really forcing this issue with his meh July. And disappointing to see Raya have back-to-back poor outings again after 4 good ones. Just not sure what to think of him at this point.
  21. jmlease1
    Twins need to find a way to get more hits and punish LHP; their struggles against southpaws continue. (though notably player bias also continues around here as Correa is getting beat up for not scoring on a double that was played well and he wouldn't have been running off contact with only 1 out, while Bader handing in a K with runners and 2nd & 3rd with 1 out is ignored...) Zebby was excellent. 7 K's, no walks? That's how you handle a lineup that's been unimpressive and shut them down. His velocity was really good and he stayed around the plate. Good work from the bullpen, but I'll admit: I thought Jax was going to blow the game again. His stuff is excellent, but he hasn't been as in control this season and has fallen down in some big moments. Span was not great in the booth last night; he was overamped, and really needs to slow it down. I think he's got some interesting things to say, but he was struggling to get it out. Hopefully he works past it. Feels like he thought he had to rush or get cut off; even in a game where it was moving along at a brisk pace through the lack of offense, it's still baseball and you have time to take a breath. Morneau had this problem early (and still does occasionally), but worked past it. Relax a little Denard!
  22. jmlease1
    He's got the stuff, for sure, but he has to be able to throw strikes and the jury is still out on that one. Somewhere in the low 20's is probably the right range for him: very good upside, big red flag. Could make it as a reliever if he doesn't end up throwing enough strikes consistently to keep starting. I like him and he's trending in the right direction, but there are also a lot of guys with great stuff who can't throw strikes in A-ball, so we'll see where he goes.
  23. jmlease1
    Bohorquez with a nice outing; the formula on him is pretty simple right now: when he's finding the zone, he's doing well and putting up strong outings. When he's not, he wobbles. If he's keeping his BB/9 under 3 he's doing fine and when it pops over that with these 3 walk stints he doesn't get far. He's had a pretty good stretch lately; only 7 BBs in his last 6 outings and his WHIP for the past month is sitting at a neat 0.500. He clearly has the stuff to handle guys at low A if he puts it in the zone. He's on track to get moved up to Cedar Rapids next season at the latest, if he can keep throwing strikes. Interesting lower-tier prospect.
  24. jmlease1
    This is far too rational a take to be allowed.
  25. jmlease1
    2022 the Twins were in first place in the division at the deadline. Should they have blown it up then? They were tied for the division lead in Sept before injuries wiped them out down the stretch. Should they have blown up the team in the offseason and started over then? 2023 they won the division, won a playoff series for the first time in a billion years. Should they have blown up the team at the deadline there? Should they have blown up the team after ownership cut the payroll in the offseason and quit on the season? 2024 they were a wild card team all the way into September before falling completely apart and missing the playoffs (but still finishing with a winning record). Should they have blown up the team at the deadline that year? Guess they should have blown up the team in the offseason? This is the first season since 2021 where they haven't been in it at the deadline, so they've had chances at the playoffs. I'd prefer they go for those opportunities rather than throw my hands up at the deadline and go "well, they're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, let's blow it up". (I'm also bored with the "the AL Central is weak" arguments; it might be weaker than the AL East, but it hasn't been weaker than the AL West, even with CWS no longer trying.) They should sell now because there's little to suggest they're capable of making a big run to get back in this: too many underperformers plus some injuries on a roster that should have been good enough to contend but was never great without some players really stepping up. But the ownership quagmire keeps them stuck in the mud.
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