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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    When dealing with a sell-off at the deadline, how much impact does Falvey's theory on game management matter? That's a different discussion on whether or not the manager should be fired as part of a larger reshaping of the team, I think. Which isn't going to happen under current ownership, who seem highly unlikely to eat any salary on their way out the door even if it's just for the rest of this season. We can fight about who stays and who goes after the team is sold. (seem likely at this point most of the senior decision-makers will go, and it's hard to say they've done so much they deserve to stay. I suspect, however, that the next group still won't bunt enough to make some people happy...)
  2. jmlease1
    Ross will need to get his velocity up or have something else in his arsenal to do more as he advances. He's fine, I guess, but at 22 in low-A he should be pushing around those kids, and so far he's just been ok, really. He's been fine in his first pro season, but still looks more like a suspect than a prospect to me. Hidalgo is better positioned with his stuff, but he's still clearly working his way back from the injury and needs a lot of work on his command & control. He's got the stuff to hunt K's, but also doesn't always know where the ball is going, and that WHIP needs a lot of work. Maybe he can crack the Twins top 30, but I'd want to see more. Prielipp is the real prospect here: he's finally staying on the field and letting his talent shine. The stuff is filthy and you can see exactly why the Twins took a risk on him despite the injury history. He's been oddly hittable this season, however, and it's something to watch with him. Curious to see where his splits end up at the end of the season; he hasn't crushed LH hitters like you might expect, but it's also a pretty small sample. If he can stay healthy, he's a real guy, but until he gets a couple of healthy seasons under his belt it's going to follow him like a dark cloud unfortunately.
  3. jmlease1
    I've been outspoken around here that I would consider selling Joe Ryan to be franchise malpractice. I maintain that view: even with a great offer, it'll still won't be enough to replace a frontline, deserving all-star starter any time soon...if at all. But I do think the team should be looking to move guys like Bader & Castro, even if the returns aren't jaw-dropping. Bader will be in line for a multi-year deal int he offseason the way he's played for us and shouldn't really be int he twins near future plans. Castro is a valuable and fun player, but he's getting too expensive for the role, might be aging out of being an effective infielder, and his value at the deadline might be as high as it'll ever get. I would strongly consider moving either Duran or Jax (whichever would bring the most) but wouldn't back off what I consider a fair return just to move them. Their value would still be high in the off-season. I would look at the market on Brock Stewart or Coulombe if there's any real value to be had there, because I think the Twins know how to build a bullpen and considering how volatile relievers can be...that's not where you generally want to be paying out significant cash. It's the best spot to flip guys, and I'd be happy if the Twins made someone pay through the nose for one of their better relievers. I'd entertain offers on Larnach, who would be a useful LF platoon bat to a contender. Or Clemens, who put a jolt in the Twins at a good time, but is unlikely to be a core piece. By fumbling out of the all-star break against Colorado & Washington (two very beatable teams) the Twins haven't done enough to be buyers, since we know ownership isn't going to add significant salary to bring in the kind of difference-making bat they need right now. Move the pending free agents (including France), take serious offers on the relievers, promote some guys from AAA and use the rest of the season to get guys healthy and evaluate what you have in players like Lewis, Lee, Julien, Keaschall, Wallner, Sabato, Martin, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Raya, etc
  4. jmlease1
    I still like SWR quite a bit as a pitcher, and I like how he's constantly working to evolve. He might never become a guy who is considered a frontline starter, but he can also be more than just back of the rotation filler too. He's still unfinished as a product and his mindset suggests a player than won't be satisfied or stop trying to improve. If he can induce more chase with his breaking stuff and the new split, I think he can be very successful. When he's finishing off hitters efficiently, he can really get rolling. Plus, I just like the dude.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm less off on Lee than you seem to be, but I generally agree. I think there's more room for someone like Sabato to get actual PT than Eeles (I wouldn't swap Lee for Eeles at this point; while I'm rooting for him, I think there's a bit of "backup QB syndrome" going on with Eeles where he's being overestimated because we haven't seen him and he's the new shiny toy than enough indicators that he's actually going to be better than someone like Lee) I would trade one of Jax/Duran if there's a strong market with real value there, and which ever one commands the most return would be the one I would deal...but only if it's a good return. I'm not interested in something like the idiot Bowden kind of trade where we throw a team both of those guys (Bowden had us giving them Castro too!) for 1 real prospect, a suspect, and a lottery ticket.
  6. jmlease1
    I think the biggest downside to a "light sell" at this deadline is if the team isn't sold and we remain stuck in the mud for another off-season. I'm honestly not particularly worried in a real decline in value for Jax, Duran, or Ryan over the next 2 months; the track record is strong enough that it won't impact their value much. But trading Ryan in particular is a signal of surrender for 2026 and potentially beyond, and making that kind of deal needs to happen under new ownership. Beyond that, all three of those guys will have substantial trade value in the offseason. YMMV on whether it will be more or not right now, but I think it will have more varied interest where different types of talent would be available. Deal them now and it's prospects only. The upside to selling now on relievers in particular is you might get someone to overpay.
  7. jmlease1
    There's some cognitive dissonance in here: you want the AAA guys to come up, but are also basically advocating for Adams to be thrown off a cliff. There's going to eb a lot more Adams-like performances if/when they turn things over to the AAA guys. Now, I still think they should sell off (or cut if necessary) every veteran whose contract is up and won't be back next season and open up some PT and roster slots for those AAA guys...but let's be realistic on what we're going to get from most of them, including Eeles. Cossetti is a guy I can't decide on: he's been pretty good this season, but the BA is low enough that I'm still not sure he could ever hit enough to be even a decent backup. He's still catching, which is good, but is he good enough defensively? He's already 25, but is still relatively inexperienced as a pro. Just don't know about him. Nice for him to have a good day, but I just don't really see it...and I wanted to.
  8. jmlease1
    Were they? I'd argue that the Ryan/Gardy teams were fun to watch when they were winning (mostly) but watching them implode in the playoffs was as bad as anything going on today. Ryan/Gardy v1 was generally fun to watch, because teams were good, but Ryan/Gardy v2 sucked with those poor teams, which weren't very fundamentally sound, because they weren't GOOD. I mean did anyone say "hey the Twins lost 9-2 last night, but they didn't make any errors or baserunning mistakes so it was fun to watch" between 2011-2015? It's not fun right now because the team is playing poorly. But the Bomba Squad was fun as hell, and the 2023 team was fun as hell too (with a lot of very likable players). Twins front office is probably getting swept out with new ownership, so if you want them gone, pray for a sale soon. (I'm fine with this; while I don't think Falvey & Co have been bad and think they got badly undermined by ownership, at the same time they also are going to miss the playoff in 4 out of 5 seasons in an era where it's easier than ever to make the playoffs so it's not like they've earned a guarantee)
  9. jmlease1
    This is why I'm unexcited about significant sell-offs; most of what I see proposed aren't guys in the top 1/3 of the Top 100 prospects, it's guys that are in the bottom 1/3 at best. Guys that are more like Winokur or Houston than a Walker Jenkins. Offers that protect the other organization's top 2-3 guys and the expectation that the Twins should be ok with that. Screw that. You want a Jax or Duran, come big or GTFO. And frankly, I don't know there's an offer big enough to get Ryan right now, which means that the offers that are coming in are woefully inadequate.
  10. jmlease1
    You realize that Earl Weaver is one of the great managers in baseball history, right?
  11. jmlease1
    I watched it live and the only Twin I would have expected to score might have been Buxton, because he's really fast and can turn it on quickly. It was a hard-hit double and fielded well. The disappointing part of that inning was Bader striking out and not getting a ball to the OF.
  12. jmlease1
    Dealing Ryan would be franchise malpractice and a signal of surrender not just for this season but for 2026 and possibly 2027 as well. There's little chance even a supposed "godfather" deal for Ryan would actually pan out that quickly, and frankly I haven't seen even prosed deals from non-Twins Daily sources that wouldn't be far better for the team acquiring Ryan than for the Twins. If they want to make a deal with Jax or Duran, while I wouldn't be thrilled I'd be more forgiving if they got a huge offer at the deadline. It's just easier to develop relievers than frontline starters. But at the end of the day, there's no choice but to "trust" Falvey to make the decisions on this because he's the guy in charge of baseball operations. Who else is there? (and not doing anything is a choice too, probably a bad one) Ownership is stuck in the mud, which makes it hard to make bigger decisions on whether or not to tear down this core and go into a rebuild or try and redesign and reset more on the fly. Sell the team, please!
  13. jmlease1
    Nice to see DeBarge stringing together some good games at the plate. I'm still concerned about his power outage in June & July (only 2 xbhs in July is not good), but he's collecting hits again and with his speed he can add bases if he gets on at least. But he's also not taking as many walks lately either. He's not having a bad season, but he's definitely faded after a hot start. I do wonder if we'll see Julien and Sabato after the deadline if the Twins sell off some parts. Julien seems to be back on track; he's taking his walks and driving the ball pretty well, and Sabato's power is certainly playing (though I'm a little concerned that his plate discipline has slipped a bit). In other AAA news, Martin has been slumping; I still think I'd rather give him a shot over wasting a bench slot with Kiersey, but he's not really forcing this issue with his meh July. And disappointing to see Raya have back-to-back poor outings again after 4 good ones. Just not sure what to think of him at this point.
  14. jmlease1
    Twins need to find a way to get more hits and punish LHP; their struggles against southpaws continue. (though notably player bias also continues around here as Correa is getting beat up for not scoring on a double that was played well and he wouldn't have been running off contact with only 1 out, while Bader handing in a K with runners and 2nd & 3rd with 1 out is ignored...) Zebby was excellent. 7 K's, no walks? That's how you handle a lineup that's been unimpressive and shut them down. His velocity was really good and he stayed around the plate. Good work from the bullpen, but I'll admit: I thought Jax was going to blow the game again. His stuff is excellent, but he hasn't been as in control this season and has fallen down in some big moments. Span was not great in the booth last night; he was overamped, and really needs to slow it down. I think he's got some interesting things to say, but he was struggling to get it out. Hopefully he works past it. Feels like he thought he had to rush or get cut off; even in a game where it was moving along at a brisk pace through the lack of offense, it's still baseball and you have time to take a breath. Morneau had this problem early (and still does occasionally), but worked past it. Relax a little Denard!
  15. jmlease1
    He's got the stuff, for sure, but he has to be able to throw strikes and the jury is still out on that one. Somewhere in the low 20's is probably the right range for him: very good upside, big red flag. Could make it as a reliever if he doesn't end up throwing enough strikes consistently to keep starting. I like him and he's trending in the right direction, but there are also a lot of guys with great stuff who can't throw strikes in A-ball, so we'll see where he goes.
  16. jmlease1
    Bohorquez with a nice outing; the formula on him is pretty simple right now: when he's finding the zone, he's doing well and putting up strong outings. When he's not, he wobbles. If he's keeping his BB/9 under 3 he's doing fine and when it pops over that with these 3 walk stints he doesn't get far. He's had a pretty good stretch lately; only 7 BBs in his last 6 outings and his WHIP for the past month is sitting at a neat 0.500. He clearly has the stuff to handle guys at low A if he puts it in the zone. He's on track to get moved up to Cedar Rapids next season at the latest, if he can keep throwing strikes. Interesting lower-tier prospect.
  17. jmlease1
    This is far too rational a take to be allowed.
  18. jmlease1
    2022 the Twins were in first place in the division at the deadline. Should they have blown it up then? They were tied for the division lead in Sept before injuries wiped them out down the stretch. Should they have blown up the team in the offseason and started over then? 2023 they won the division, won a playoff series for the first time in a billion years. Should they have blown up the team at the deadline there? Should they have blown up the team after ownership cut the payroll in the offseason and quit on the season? 2024 they were a wild card team all the way into September before falling completely apart and missing the playoffs (but still finishing with a winning record). Should they have blown up the team at the deadline that year? Guess they should have blown up the team in the offseason? This is the first season since 2021 where they haven't been in it at the deadline, so they've had chances at the playoffs. I'd prefer they go for those opportunities rather than throw my hands up at the deadline and go "well, they're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, let's blow it up". (I'm also bored with the "the AL Central is weak" arguments; it might be weaker than the AL East, but it hasn't been weaker than the AL West, even with CWS no longer trying.) They should sell now because there's little to suggest they're capable of making a big run to get back in this: too many underperformers plus some injuries on a roster that should have been good enough to contend but was never great without some players really stepping up. But the ownership quagmire keeps them stuck in the mud.
  19. jmlease1
    I think Winokur is going to move off SS, but where he lands is going to be interesting. He's got the athleticism to be an excellent CF too. But maybe they prefer him on the dirt? Not a lot of other highlights from the top prospects in this report. Nice to see DeBarge have a good game after scrabbling for a while. It'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm not sure that's actually true; there are some people around here that hate the front office and/or manager so much they want this team to lose to get these people fired. But the "winning it all" aspect is part of the issue too: there are definitely people who think that if you're not one of the absolute best teams in the league you should blow it all up and try to re-assemble a new roster from top prospects until you get there rather than compete in as many seasons as possible. I would argue that winning it all is possible with any team that can reach the playoffs in baseball more than any other team sport (hockey is arguably there too because you can ride a hot goalie to a title even if the rest of the squad is middle of the road. and to be clear, I'm not saying you WILL, I'm saying you CAN) In baseball, I'd rather get more chances in the playoffs than try the tear down & rebuild cycle more often because if you miss on some of these prospects (or they simply get hurt), we're not a franchise that can buy our way out of it and never will be.
  21. jmlease1
    It's still ownership #1, because the "right-sizing" of the payroll absolutely screwed the roster development that was going on. Signing Correa and making big extensions for Buxton and Correa (even if they're actually below market rate) along with making the play for Vazquez made much more sense in the context of the 2023 payroll, not what followed after. It's not that the team isn't spending "enough" money, precisely it's that ownership allowed payroll to make a jump up in class and then ratcheted back, which screwed over the front office's ability to build in smaller moves around what they saw as the core and sent them back to dumpster diving. They might not deserve the largest share of blame exactly, but their absolutely terrible decision-making and cash-first attitude has had dreadful results and made the franchise look inept, cheap, and stupid. Players need to take a large share. Guys have underperformed this season, and at the end of the day if the players aren't playing well, little else matters. Wallner has disappointed and was injured, Miranda and Julien didn't bounce back at all, Lee hasn't taken a step forward at the plate, Correa hasn't been anywhere near what the team needs from him, Royce has struggled for most of the season (and was hurt, again), Larnach and Jeffers have just been ok. The pitching was the strength, but injuries really dinged things up losing Pablo, Ober, Matthews, and now Festa and Jax has been erratic while Sands took a step back. Outside of Ryan & Varland who took a step forward? (Duran and Stewart have both been good, of course, but didn't go to a new level, really) Front office is probably 3rd for me. Their off-season moves this year haven't turned out too badly, but they were very limited in what they could do. Bader & Coloumbe worked, and moving Varland into the bullpen has been (predictably) good; Tonkin was a miss but a marginal move. France was a miss as well IMHO, but when you're shopping in the dented can aisle you shouldn't expect much. If you want to argue they should have taken a much more aggressive stance in the offseason in trying to trade salary to bring in more talent...I guess? But there really wasn't that much to move without dealing Pablo (Buxton & Correa weren't going anywhere). They haven't covered themselves in glory, but worked tied to a chair I think. Last is the coaching staff, who will almost certainly take the fall for this anyways. They've been fine. Not great, but not awful. A few bad choices. They haven't done enough positive things to make me feel like defending them, but they're probably going to take more of a share of blame than they actually deserve, nature of the job. It's a very frustrating season, because I can see the path to a playoff spot with this team and I like a lot of the players. But they haven't gotten it done.
  22. jmlease1
    A disastrous loss that basically puts the nail in the season, which sucks. Team needed a good road trip, instead they fumbled it. Hate seeing it. Nice to see Royce finding his form again, at least and maybe Paddack's outing gets someone hot for him that they'll overpay. But not much good to find when they look like they have to be sellers now. I guess that will make some people happy? Next ownership probably cleans house and Rocco gets fired if a deal gets done by the end of the calendar year or so. Feels like some people would prefer anything that got the current group fired, including losing. Kiersey as a pinch runner helped a little this game, but when he came up with an opportunity to hit, all I could think was we'd be better off with Jerome Kersey in that position.
  23. jmlease1
    Walker JenkinsLuke Keaschall won't be here long, about to lose his "prospect" statusKaelen Culpepper doing everything you could hope for in his first full pro season & earned his promotion rather than get to AA on scholarshipConnor Prielipp The stuff is finally getting to play since he's finally healthy. if he can stay on the field, he's elite.Emmanuel Rodriguez Talent is immense, but can't stay on the fieldGabriel Gonzalez Having a healthy season has made a difference. he can flat out hitCharlee Soto missing time sucks, but he's still massively talented.Dasan Hill doing very well, looks on trackBrandon Winokur streaky but talented.Marco RayaAndrew MorrisMarek Houston says something about the strength of the system that he slots in here, rather than a reflection on him. Good to have another legit SS in the systemRiley Quick Big upside here, hope he stays healthyCJ Culpepper Last name got stolen by another prospect, but he's still worth watchingKyle DeBarge scrabbling after a hot start, can't get too distracted by the steals in A-ball. Needs to find his swing againBilly Amick missed time set him back a bit, but still looking interestingQuentin Young Betting on athletic talent. reasonable spot to make that betEduardo BeltreRicardo Olivar has the hit tool to matterDanny De Andrade still believe in him and he's healthy again. still young.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm not really a fan of Tommy Watkins out there, but I have to wonder if it's just that I see him all the time. Are other team's 3B coaches the same? Am I just always remembering the bad? And how much is on the player's decision-making?
  25. jmlease1
    Culpepper & GG continue to roll along. Love to see it. Good for them to show the power potential with dingers, even if the ball flies in Wichita. Again, they're doing everything you could ask for. Fedko is a guy I'd like to see moved up sooner rather than later. His BA is relatively pedestrian, so I think it's going to be important to know whether or not he can sustain this level of contact against more advanced pitchers, and in AAA he'll see guys who are ex-MLB players, top prospects, guys who are moving back and forth as they sit on the cusp and it should be a good challenge. Because he's done a good job controlling the strike zone and letting his power play this season, but at 25 and on a repeat at AA there's really nothing left to prove there. Sounds like the Twins had lost faith in Camargo's ability to hit enough and be a realistic catching option. I had a lot of hope, but last season's poor performance in AAA and this year's equally unimpressive work suggests he might have hit his ceiling. He's only 25 and catchers do develop later, but the International League is a good hitting environment and he's well below par.
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