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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    seems about right for a floor? I think much like Kepler he will be able to play CF early in his career; what will push him to a corner is Buxton is still much better there defensively and reportedly Rodriguez is also a better fielder. How much CF Jenkins gets will depend on who else is on the Twins roster, but if things got shuffled around and Jenkins won a job in spring training I could totally see him starting in RF but being the primary backup to Buxton in CF. I'm frankly hoping that the Twins are able to deal Larnach and there's an open competition between Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez (and maybe even Fedko) for a starting spot with Outman moved on from and Roden given a chance to be the 4th OF. Larnach raises the floor a bit, but Jenkins or Rodriguez can raise the ceiling and allowing Wallner to spend more time at DH helps the defense too.
  2. jmlease1
    It's challenging to balance proven MLB players with prospects on a list like this, I think? I'm definitely a fan of GG, but to be fair, last season was a breakout year for him coming off an injury-filled fairly disappointing one. And while he's showing serious skills as a hitter, he's not a player that's adding much defensively or on the bases.
  3. jmlease1
    neither WAR metric is perfect, that's for sure. And SWR definitely may have been "lucky"...but at the end of the day, what happened, happened? But it's why a lot of times for pitchers I look at bWAR when I'm trying to describe what happened in a season for a player, and fWAR when I'm trying to project what they might be in the future? There's always a few guys that consistently overperform their xFIP, etc too. I wonder if SWR could end up being one of those guys? (That's a risky thing to bet on, of course) I do think it's interesting that while SWR has overperformed against his xFIP, he's under performed his xERA according to FanGraphs. Their projection systems have him being above the same or slightly better than last season, which again...seems to be a very solid 4th or 5th starter?
  4. jmlease1
    SWR has been a 2+ bWAR pitcher in MLB for 2 consecutive seasons. If you don't think that's a quality backend starter, then I really don't know what to tell you. You can talk about his velocity, conditioning, and xFIP all you want, but at the end of the day teams that finished ahead of us in the standings would have been thrilled to have him take the ball every 5th day because starting pitching is in short supply and a guy that can give you 20+ starts at a league average or better ERA+ is more than most of them get in the 5th slot of the rotation. But please, keep telling me how it's all in my head.
  5. jmlease1
    Lot of speculation here. Thank you. Twins were pulling SWR after short starts to intentionally keep him from facing a lineup the 3rd time through, weren't they? That's not necessarily anything to do with conditioning. And last season he was coming back from a parasitic infection that caused him to drop a bunch of weight; that's not a conditioning issue, that's after-effects of an injury. Would like to see some real evidence that he's not coachable, or that he was on his last chance in 2024. He was a prized prospect who was always super young for his level and promoted aggressively. He struggled in 2023 in his first extended time at AAA (not that unusual) at 22. The Twins have been adjusting his pitches and pitch mix for multiple seasons...that's uncoachable? He's been doing what he was asked. If you want to argue SWR isn't a frontline, playoff caliber starter...I think you've got some evidence. If you want to argue he's not a 4th or 5th starter on a playoff team, then I think you need to look more closely at the performance of 4th and 5th starters of playoff teams last season. And he just barely turned 25.
  6. jmlease1
    I don't think people are necessarily saying that Royce is the most likely to succeed, but that he could make the most impact because the ceiling is still quite high and he hit so poorly last year. A breakout season for Brooks Lee could still have him as a league average hitter. A return to form for Royce could be a 140 OPS+. Royce probably has the highest variance, the most boom or bust potential. He's also literally never had a healthy MLB season. He's never been close. Who knows what he looks like if he does?
  7. jmlease1
    Can you cite something on SWR having conditioning issues or being hard to coach? Because I don't recall that. And if SWR is "barely adequate" as a #5 after his actual performance the last 2 seasons, I would like to know what your standard is for a #5? Cle & Det would have killed to have SWR as their #5 last season.
  8. jmlease1
    I've been a big fan of SWR, who keeps getting the job done even when other shiny new objects don't. Yes, they've protected him to some extent, and he hasn't shown the highest end upside...but dude keeps working, keeps battling, and keeps performing. To me, he's earned the 4th spot in the rotation as things stand, and it's part of why the Twins rotation depth really does look so good. Bradley is a guy I don't know how to rate. He can look so good, and then look so bad. The consistency isn't there and if he finds it, he's a weapon. If he doesn't, he's heading to the bullpen. How long is the rope, especially with him out of options? Rodriguez needs to play. While I generally approve of raising the floor on the MLB club (you really can add quite a few wins by giving more ABs and innings to average/ok players rather than flat-out bad ones), it also closes off opportunities for unproven guys, and with all of the young players with higher upside in the OF, I'd like for there to be a real opportunity for one or more of them to actually play, and Emma should be one of them.
  9. jmlease1
    Disagree on Lee; while him performing better at the plate would be excellent for the Twins in many ways, Keaschall's performance will be more critical. If he's able to play close to where he was in 2025, then he's a really impactful bat in the lineup that's short of them. Lee hitting better raises the floor (unless he has an out of nowhere explosion) not the ceiling, and Keaschall maintaining where he was is more impactful.
  10. jmlease1
    I love seeing projections from things like STEAMER and ZIPS, just because it makes some people so incredibly angry. There's usually some good entertainment there as people rail against...math. It'll be interesting to see where Keaschall lands. I think there's some regression in his hitting that we should expect, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the batting average at least lands quite a bit higher than the projection here. I'm not surprised to see them seeing positives in his defense; with a good offseason and consistent reps throughout spring training, he really does have the tools to hold down 2B quite nicely. The clangs off the glove and some of the missed plays are likely to improve with reps, and we've never heard any issues with Keaschall's work ethic. The real question will be his arm, but with more time removed from the surgery and busted arm...well, we'll see? he doesn't need a great arm, just a consistent one, and the accuracy should improve (like everything else) with reps. Dude just hasn't played a ton in the field as a pro.
  11. jmlease1
    I have no idea where to rank Royce Lewis any longer. The talent is legit, the injury history is troubling, the production is...erratic? He looked a mess at the plate last season, and hopefully he gets a full re-set this winter. I did like how he started running on the bases again, and that he didn't drag his struggles at the plate into the field; he's a legit 3B. I'm nervous about Festa, and simply don't trust the Twins staff on injury recovery or projections at this point. I love his talent, and would be fine with moving the Slim Reaper to the bullpen, especially if guys like Bradley and SWR seize the back end of the rotation.
  12. jmlease1
    That's a pretty tough bar to clear, though. Because if he can't effing hit at all (and keep in mind even guys like Andrelton Simmons (who was the best defensive SS in MLB at one point) hit in the minors) people will not be ok with anything less than the best, and even then I expect to hear complaints. Again, the Simmons example is instructive: when he was with the Twins he was still playing quality defense at SS, but the .558 OPS made it painful, and after 35 games with the Cubs in 2022 he was out of the league at 32, because he simply couldn't hit. Marek Houston will need to hit at least some or his glove won't matter enough.
  13. jmlease1
    I hope a fresh start gets him back on track. He clearly needed a change of scenery and he wasn't going to get a MLB deal with anyone this season after his disastrous, horrific 2025. He might never get back to being the kind of player he was becoming, which would be a shame. It was a bummer seeing everything good about his game evaporate and for him to struggle so mightily. There's little doubt in my mind that he was seriously impacted by the beaning, and instances like this are something that baseball (and the player's association in particular) will have to wrestle with with player safety in coming years. With pitchers throwing harder than ever, all it takes is one wayward throw for a player's career to be altered permanently or even ended, regardless of intent. Good luck to Miranda.
  14. jmlease1
    Dang quad bypass? That's serious stuff, especially at 70. Hope he recovers well and gets more time with his family and friends. Heck of a relief pitcher for the Twins. He's had some rough times and hopefully this improves his quality of life and doesn't send him spiraling again,
  15. jmlease1
    Who is giving love for Kreidler? Much like Outman, he's a guy on the roster that it feels like we're stuck with. (It's my biggest issue with Falvey's roster management; they'll grab guys like this and instead of giving them a brief audition and moving on if they suck out, they keep chasing value rather than "lose the asset for nothing") They need to have a backup SS on the roster. Right now it's Kreidler by default. In this particular case, I'm not sure it makes that much difference if it's Kriedler v Fitzgerald, I guess? I'm more concerned about the OF and the lack of opportunity for any of the prospects if Outman (who looks like a quad-A guy) and Larnach (who seems to have little upside) stick. As noted elsewhere, there's not even enough PT in AAA for guys right now. Feels like the scars of a few years ago when we literally ran out of competent OF (and it probably cost the team a playoff spot) have lingered too long, and the wrong lessons were learned. I have no idea what to do with Julien at this point. I was a big backer of his, but he's got a lot more failure on his resume now. Much like Outman, why should we believe he can be fixed in 2026? I don't know that he's really blocking anyone, but 26-man spots have value and unless he figures it out fast, he's not adding any. I'm bummed about that, but feels like it's time to move on. Looking at the projected lineup, it's clear that it's dependent on several players improving or returning to form to be dangerous. Now, that's possible; Wallner & Lewis in particular should be better in 2026 than 2025 and both can be real threats. But fans should rightfully be skeptical at this point.
  16. jmlease1
    Yeah, there's no question that Rooker made improvement and adjustments after he left; it wasn't just a case of getting more opportunities. It's important to remember that Rooker flunked out in SD and KC too before figuring it out. But good for him. It would be great if someone like Rosario keeps fine-tuning his game and rises up as a better hitter and player then almost everyone is projecting, but it's not something you can count on. So far, Twins have done ok with him, giving him time in the AFL, correctly assessing his value so they haven't needed to add him to the 40-man...and who knows? Maybe he takes another leap in AAA. But GG is the most likely option; he doesn't turn 22 for another week, but hit very well in a decent sized opportunity in AAA while jumping all the way up from A-ball in one season, and earning it at every stop. There's a lot to like with his hit tool. I don't have any problems with giving GG more time in AAA, but I hope that the Twins will make it more of an open competition for the last spots in the OF, rather than just hand jobs to Outman and Larnach.
  17. jmlease1
    He's younger and has less of a track record of failure in MLB? Seems to be better defensively at this point? Roden might turn out to be a quad-A player, but he's barely played in MLB and it's not at all unusual for a rookie to suck in their first taste of MLB competition. He might not make it, but he also has options remaining, so it's not a situation where the team has to decide whether to essentially cut him if he's not performing from the jump, which is part of the problem with Outman: if he's on the roster in March we might be stuck with him longer as the old sunk cost fallacy comes into play again. GG is a better fit for the roster in some ways, but again with guys like Larnach on the roster the Twins need a legit backup CF. Right now we've got Wallner, Larnach, Outman, Martin, and Buxton as the OF and dropping Outman for GG means that Martin is the backup CF, which is...less optimal.
  18. jmlease1
    Because we've been terribly vulnerable to LHP in recent years? Because RH hitters typically have less egregious splits than LH hitters? Because a bunch of our top hitting prospects hit LH? It's reasonable to be concerned. I like Martin, but he won't hit for any real power and we still don't know if last season is reflective of his ability or he'll fumble it in 2026. Jeffers might not be here in a year and while he hits well for a catcher, when he slides to DH he's not lighting the world on fire lately. Keaschall has never played a full season. Buxton is the only real proven RH hitter we have, and people are trying to sell him off too.
  19. jmlease1
    I'd say GG is the most likely RH bat to emerge as a real MLB option from this group, but you never know how things will evolve. GG had an excellent 2025, and his improved approach was impressive. I'm not terribly concerned about his less than stellar 2024, but that was almost certainly injury related. He was healthy in 2025 and kicked butt. Rosario is a fascinating case. He's got loud power and when he gets on a run he's an impressive hitter who did well in 2025. He took a good run in the AFL in 2024 and kept it up all through 2025 to get himself back on track. But he clearly has weaknesses: he's not much of a defender, despite good athleticism, and the K-rates can get scary. But he's also a player who clearly works on his game and has been able to add things from year to year. He went from being a guy who never ran to swiping 32 bags last season. Sure, it's the minors and between catchers still learning the position and pitchers not being good at holding guys on it's easy to run wild, but going from single digit steals to 30+ still says something. (I'm not exactly sure what, but it shouldn't be ignored) Maybe he's a guy who can add to his game in increments? What if he really improves his defense in 2026? I dunno if he'll make it and not getting selected in the Rule 5 suggests the league ain't sure about him either, but he's still something and should be in AAA this year. (and with Rosario needing to be in AAA is another reason to not keep effin' Outman on the roster: if Fedko, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Roden, Gonzalez, and Rosario are all in AAA that's too many OF to give people reasonable amounts of PT)
  20. jmlease1
    It's a good list, and I'm happy to see Harper on it. He does seem to be the forgotten guy from the '91 team, but he was a really solid catcher for the Twins. You'd kill to have a guy who could hit like that now catching for you. Twins have had some very very good FA signings, but their volume is also pretty low when it comes to impact moves.
  21. jmlease1
    Pass. He might have a nice bounce-back season at the plate, but there's little reason he's going to improve defensively, and there's plenty of risk that he's going to be more like Ed Julien or James Outman: a guy that had one season, before the league caught up to him. I'm unenthusiastic about Clemens, but at least he adds something defensively while having real positional flexibility. Clemens can fill in at 3B if needed (and Brooks Lee can slide down there as well), and the reality is with only 13 position player's you won't have backups on the MLB roster for every position. Twins don't need to have a dedicated backup to Royce Lewis, and now have 3 guys who can play 1B (Bell, Clemens, and Keaschall) and everyone can DH, so giving up a bunch of prospect capital for Vientos in hoping that he bounces back and finds a position doesn't do much for me. Are the Mets selling him cheap? No? Forget it.
  22. jmlease1
    Who knows on Royce? He's shown all-star upside and meh reserve quality. Which is part of the problem with "replacing" him when he's still relatively affordable. Larnach could be a bit more than that (he was above that in 2024) but I tend to agree: the ceiling is limited. Lee is another one where it's probably too early; he really doesn't have that much track record (he's well under 1000 PA's and has only had 1 full season in MLB). He's shown improvement as a hitter year over year, but needs substantial improvement both offensively and defensively to be part of any core. Martin is slightly older, but has even less track record. He was a mess defensively and didn't hit well in his first, limited MLB exposure, but improved markedly in limited time in 2025. He's got fewer PA's than Lee. You could easily give Martin's playing time to a RH bat...but would it be the best idea? Twins need to give playing time to the prospects in the OF and put money into the bullpen so that it has a baseline of competence while they cycle guys through looking for the next Jax, Duran, etc. Upgrading at SS would be lovely, but a) is someone like IKF (who can defend but can't hit) going to be that impactful for the money, and b) how close is Culpepper really? Because the twins simply can't pay a guy like IKF $7M to be the defensive replacement/utility guy.
  23. jmlease1
    I mean, you can make the argument that any position that doesn't have an incumbent all-star is worthy of an upgrade. But that's simply unrealistic, even for the unlimited payroll teams. Jeffers certainly has proven worthy of a roster spot; a catcher who can hit even a little is valuable and Jeffers has shown he can be more than that. Grouping Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Julien all together is complicated, because while the Twins could use an upgrade out of all of them, technically, the reasons are different and the degree is different. Wallner has multiple seasons of being not just an ok hitter but a really good one, and we don't know if 2025 was an anomaly or a trend. Larnach has an ok floor but never shown much ceiling. Lee is still a young player. Lewis has battled injuries constantly, including last season. Martin looks to be rising, but is relatively unproven. Julien has fallen apart as a hitter and doesn't seem to fit with the rest other than disappointing last season too. The bullpen is where the Twins need the greatest immediate investment.
  24. jmlease1
    The answer should be "yes", but since the biggest issue is still ownership...
  25. jmlease1
    If he's the hitter from the second half of 2025, then he'll be a very useful addition to the Twins lineup. There's reason to think he can repeat that, but there's also risk. But this is the kind of risk I'm ok with them taking? He's not blocking anyone, he makes us less reliant on Clemens, and if he gets back to career averages from the right side then he'll help us not get killed by LHP. I feel like he's likely to raise the floor for the Twins while still having some potential to raise the ceiling. Now, add in a couple of veteran relievers and maybe upgrade the backup SS (I'm unenthusiastic about Kreidler for sure) while sending Outman off the roster and the outlook improves even on a Pohlad budget...
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