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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Nice day for Lewis, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Hope all three finish the year strong and healthy at AA and go into next year pushing to make the big club. (my way too early prediction: none of them make the team out of spring training, but all see time with the club in 2020, with Kirilloff hitting his way on to the team first and sticking the fastest.) I think all three are going to be in good shape if they stay healthy and can get all the AA ABs they can handle.
  2. jmlease1
    He's got to get better control of the strike zone, though. Outside of 2018 in AA, he's never put up the serious OBP numbers he's going to need to be a factor and not a AAAA player. He's had a nice power-up this year, but I'd be a little concerned that some of that is related to the new ball in AAA. He's also an older player. I'm rooting for him, but I'm not confident in his chances to be an impact player. feels like a useful minor league depth guy, I'm afraid. Rooker is younger and demonstrably better, and there are still a lot people questioning his chances, so what does that mean for Wiel?
  3. jmlease1
    Great news for Dyson to have a strong 1-2-3 inning. After his horrid, injured start hopefully this gives everyone (fans included) a little more confidence in him; I think he's going to be a really nice piece down the stretch. Romo has done a fine job since joining the team and while I don't love the HBPs, everything else looks good with him and I like adding his experience to that 'pen. If May can find some consistency and with Duffey getting on a bit of a roll (a few too many walks, but he can work around it) the bullpen should be fine again. But they could really use one more lefty in the mix, and I'm not sure we have one that makes sense. Weirdly, the thing that drove me craziest about last night's game was Polanco's error on the bunt in the 4th. Perez had plenty of time and gunned a throw that was high and outside, and Polanco was still thinking double play and clanked it. bad throw. bad catch. bad play. Just felt sloppy,
  4. jmlease1
    I think he finishes around top 5, but probably won't win it. Part of it will be playing time, but also high batting average just isn't considered sexy any longer. bWAR is less appreciative of him than fWAR; he's well behind someone like Vlad Guerrero Jr. by that measure too, not to mention Brandon Lowe who is kind of a double whammy on Arraez, since they both play 2B. That said, he's going to be a deserving candidate and is having a wonderful year. He may get a bit of a boost with the twins being in a pennant battle, especially if he keeps coming through with clutch hitting, which will get him some air time on ESPN for voters who don't see him often.
  5. jmlease1
    Celestino has been on an absolute tear for the last 6 weeks. Absolutely fantastic July, followed up with an equal great August to date. Love seeing the adjustment and the increased power in his bat. He'll be in Ft. Myers next year with an opportunity to move up quickly.
  6. jmlease1
    Max Kepler might hit 40 HRs this year. Wow. Luis Arraez continues to stake his claim for the starting 2B job, if not this year, then next year.
  7. jmlease1
    May has been struggling to hit his spots all year, and it's been immensely frustrating, because you know he's got the stuff to dominate. Frankly, I was expecting him to be the RHP partner to Taylor Rogers if he could stay healthy. Healthy hasn't been the issue, command has. nice to see him have a strong outing last night. He's got the stuff to be a weapon. Maybe Romo can help him out a little?
  8. jmlease1
    hold the phone here. Larnach was in A-ball a month ago. Graterol was on the injured list for extended time, has never pitched above AA, and just got back on the mound like a hour ago. And you want them taking on significant roles with the MLB club that's in a title hunt? Larnach looks like the real deal as a hitter, but you're ready to jump him over Rooker (who has nuked AAA) and Kirilloff (who has played solid baseball in AA and dominated A ball much more thoroughly than Larnach did) AND Cave (who can play CF, has been crushing it AAA, and only has like 100 ABs in MLB)? Gravitating to the shiny new thing is not always smart. Those kinds of moves scream panic to me. There is no reason to panic.
  9. jmlease1
    I'll admit it: I was one of those people who had concerns. I didn't have a problem with the contract extension, because with his ability to play CF his defensive value was high enough to support the deal. But I think it was perfectly fair to be concerned about whether Kepler would ever have the kind of offensive breakout people had been predicting for three years. Prior to this year, Kepler had a remarkably consistent results profile as a hitter, and it was decidedly mediocre. Low BA, solid patience, good power for CF, lower end power for a corner OF. Poor BABIP. After three years of this, it wasn't crazy to be worried that this simply might be who he was as a hitter and a player: someone whose bat plays in CF but hits below average in the corners and makes up for the lighter hitting with elite defense in the corners while being solid in CF. Fortunately for everyone involved, Kepler has taken that leap forward this year. He's really unlocked his power potential this year and it's a massive improvement. He's already hit career highs in HRs, RBIs, and WAR and will almost certainly crush his career high for 2B. Absent a signficant late slump, he's going to hit career highs in BA/OB%/SLG%, OPS, OPS+...you name it, he's crushing it. It's the breakout we've all been hoping for but many of us worried might never come. Last year Kepler took a step up in total value, but it was mostly due to defense and playing a higher value position for it. Now, he's still playing great defense and hitting close to all-star levels. I'm thrilled for him and the team. The contract extension looks brilliant now, whereas before it looked ok and required a little hope stuffed in.
  10. jmlease1
    This. bRef also defines their WAR pretty clearly: 8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Repl fWAR likes Cron less, but he's still not a replacement-level player. Cron has been good, not as healthy as we might like. Certainly better than Austin, who was the option a number of people really wanted. he's likely to finish somewhere north of 2 bWAR, probably just south of 1 fWAR. YMMV on which is the better measure.
  11. jmlease1
    The range of opinions on this trade are kind of fascinating. You've got people calling Romo now the 22nd best arm in our MLB bullpen and others saying he's just better than the worst option in our bullpen. You've got people calling this an overpay because of Diaz's future value and seeing little value in Villamont, while others are thinking it's good value because they see a small downgrade to Villamont and us losing Diaz in the offseason due to the 40-man crunch. I think it's a decent, but not transformative addition. Feels like Romo is a replacement for Blake Parker, someone who can hammer RH hitters, maybe step into the overrated closer role and add some veteran presence to the pen. It shouldn't be the end, but it's a good start.
  12. jmlease1
    He's still only 20, and it's not like he's been bad. I like his ability to keep the ball in the park. Still plenty of upside there. Lets see how he finishes the year. Nice to see Rortvedt have a big game at the plate; hes been scuffling a bit and needs to hit if hes going to keep climbing the ranks ahead of Jeffers.
  13. jmlease1
    The White Sox sure are the cure for what ails ya, huh? Kepler is having an excellent season, just excellent. I was ok with the contract extension because Kepler's ability to play CF gave him significant value even if his hitting never really broke out. Maybe its the baseball, maybe he's just unlocked his power stroke, but regardless of what it is he's slugging it like you expect from a guy playing RF. Now that deal looks like a steal.
  14. jmlease1
    Gordon is doing a nice job this year. I'm sure he's a little frustrated at sticking in AAA again and getting passed over by Arraez, but this has been a good bounce-back season for him. He plummeted down the rankings after a really rough stint in Rochester in 2018, but it's important to note that this was his first real hiccup in pro baseball. Dude was promoted every single year of his pro career before 2019 (sure it was a mid-year one in 2018, but he's never repeated a full year). He hit in A+, AA, and now he's hitting again in AAA. The luster has gone off him because he's no longer 19 and projectable (which often seems to be dreaming about a guy's ceiling while trying hard not to look at the floor...), he's 23 and getting close to who he is as a player. But he looks like a useful MLB player who could start in the middle infield for you. I'd be pretty comfortable moving on from Schoop and looking at Arraez/Gordon at 2B next year. Glad to see Hackimer back...do we know why he was suspended yet?
  15. jmlease1
    While there's all kinds of questions an issues about the way the FO has constructed the bullpen, there's little doubt about the way they've built the team in the field. No wasted roster spaces, and while I might pine a little for some additional on-base monsters and high average hitters, overall they've done a heck of a job. And one of those areas is in the utility group. Adrianza is hitting really well, and his ability to defend at multiple positions while continuing to hit this year is a significant asset. And it's not a fluky, high BABIP-induced, small sample size trip: this looks like just legit improvement. Gonzalez is also hitting well and providing quality defense all over (after a horrid start at the plate). It's really helpful to not have massive drop-offs when a starter gets a day off.
  16. jmlease1
    Blake Parker, before last night's implosion: July: 7 IP, No Runs (earned or otherwise), No Inherited Runners Scored (1-0), 2 holds and a win. He'd struggled a bit in June before getting it back together leading into last night's mess. But he'd been awfully effective in April/May. Maybe a little recency bias against him right now? He is who he is: an adequate veteran reliever. Since I think "closer" is a stupidly overrated position, I'd let him keep finishing games. Maybe Bremer just jinxed him, seeing as he said he'd been more effective than Rogers recently. Ryne Harper is a much bigger issue; you simply can't bring him in to a game with runners on base; his stats look better on the surface but unless he starts with a clean sheet he can't clean up anyone else's mess. That's a real issue.
  17. jmlease1
    Sure, but when you see reports of Lewis, Kirilloff, or Graterol being "off limits" it's in the context of the current trade market and who teams are making available. Teams are calling the Twins hoping they can fleece them of Lewis or something for a 2nd tier reliever and are being told those guys are off-limits based on the players involved in the conversations.
  18. jmlease1
    Sure, but that's fantasy land. The Reds aren't going to offer their best pitcher, a guy who's pitching at a Cy Young-level in MLB and is under team control for the next 5 years to anyone. We could offer Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Balazovic and they still would probably laugh at us, because even if those prospects have amazing value Castillo has more for their franchise because it's less risk. The pitcher the Reds might consider moving would be Sonny Gray (which would be complicated). Let's not get distracted talking about impossible trades for players who aren't on the market.
  19. jmlease1
    2019 Twins are at 187 Bombas through July 22. My goodness...
  20. jmlease1
    Except that last year at this time that's exactly what people were saying about both Lewis and Kirilloff: these were all-star, organizational changing prospects. No, neither was the next Mike Trout, but that's a once in a generation kind of a player! Vlad Guerrero Jr was seen by everyone as a can't miss prospect, an all-star organization changing guy...but he's not Mike Trout either. If that's the scale, no one registers. The only question on Lewis was whether or not he stuck at SS or would be better moved to a different elite defensive position in CF. The only question on Kirilloff was when he would start slashing base hits in MLB. This year, Kirilloff has had some injury issues that are pulling his numbers down, and Lewis hit his first development hiccup. But they're both still great prospects. I'd rather make a smaller move for a bullpen guy than hand over the farm for Bumgarner or even Stroman. (and I think Bumgarner is going to be nigh-impossible to pry away from the Giants since they went on this tear: they're 17-3 over their last 20 and are 2 games back of the wild card in the NL) People are talking like it will take a package headed by Lewis or Kirilloff to get either, along with other pieces and that seems like a Chris Archer overpay to me. Bumgarner moves the needle as a starter but is a summer rental, and Stroman is a nice piece but is more important for being a reliable consistent guy over a season instead of being dominant.
  21. jmlease1
    Some of it depends on what the Jays are looking for, of course. But Larnach seems to be a logical starting point, along with 2-3 other guys. I like Griffin Jax quite a bit and he could be very interesting to a team like Toronto...or they might not think he has much of a future at all. Someone like Gonsalves is a bit of a "sell low" right now, but there's also enough minor league track record to make a team think "we can get him back on track and make them look foolish". Considering some of the 40-man crunch that's pending, the Twins could be looking to package together more of a quantity deal with only 1 top-end player (like a Larnach). How much has Lewin Diaz or Travis Blankenhorn's stock risen with their performances this season?
  22. jmlease1
    At a certain point there's going to be a market correction on batting average in MLB too; right now it's all about power and slugging % but we're already getting to a point where ability to make consistent contact is becoming an underrated skill and a high batting average is also underrated. Having a guy in your lineup who can consistently hit solidly above .300 is a real asset, even if they don't have tons of power, because a hit is, in fact, better than a walk. I think Arraez has a chance to be one of those guys. Even if his BABIP normalizes down more around .330 or so (which it almost certainly will, but that's also not an unsustainable number for a high-contact player with good athleticism) you're still looking at a guy who could be hitting .315 or so with a .370 OBP and be a tremendous asset as a player who can hit almost anywhere in the batting order and be really productive. We'll see how much pitchers are able to adjust their approach to him. There may be some holes in his swing that they haven't found yet, but the approach is really encouraging. I'll admit, I'd really like to have a high batting average guy in the lineup. Feels like it's an underrated asset to have these days for consistent run production.
  23. jmlease1
    wow, Wander Javier is struggling right now. The overall batting line is awful, but the last week & last month are so much worse. Last 28 Days he's "slashing" .074/.182/.103 in 68 ABs. with 30 Ks. Something is broken with him, hope the coaching staff can get him right, because this is absolutely dreadful. That sequence with Rooker getting tossed and other nonsense with the ump...good grief, what happened? Who peed in Alex Tossi's cornflakes, because that was an absurd ump show.
  24. jmlease1
    It's going to be interesting to see how Cody Allen does in AAA. Be great if we were able to "fix" him and have him as a viable option. Basically this is a "did the Angels give up on him too soon or is he cooked" move. Next few weeks are going to be very interesting as some of these prospects audition for a trade possibility.
  25. jmlease1
    first off, we don't actually know that Polanco would be a better defender at 2B than SS; it's been speculated a lot but he really hasn't played there enough for this to be fact. second, we've got a guy in Schoop currently doing very well for us at 2B with a very interesting heir apparent in Arraez that's lead us to being 4th in WAA at 2B (80% of that is Schoop, btw). Neither of these guys can play SS full-time, so why would you preemptively move on from Schoop or bury Arraez as a utility guy to move Polanco over? third, the idea of "get a superior defender at SS" is all well and good in a vacuum, but who is actually going to slot in there and how much do you have to pay to get them? How much offensive drop-off do you have to accept to get the superior defender? who is that superior defender? I like Polanco just fine where he is. We have him on a long-term deal that's outstanding for the team for the value he brings. He's bringing elite overall play at SS and getting other good bats into play at 2B.
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