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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I mean, I assume the Twins would be willing to trade Polanco or Kepler or Farmer for prospects, but only if they already had a deal lined up to trade prospects for the MLB pitching they need. Three team deals are hard, though.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm sure he wants multiple years, but if that's not on the table for him coming off an injury, he might be interested in a pillow contract, bet on himself having a quality year and go back on the free agent market at 31. He's an interesting player, and while he destroys LHP, it's not like he gets beat up by righties over his career. He can play pretty much full-time. I wish he was better defensively; at best he's just another guy at 1B, which may be another reason why the 3-4 year deal he's likely hoping for isn't to be found. (but it also might be because several teams are like the Twins and have a lot of uncertainty/losses in revenues because of the fall of the RSNs, constricting the market) This is the sort of signing the Twins seem inclined to try to do at the end of the offseason when someone is playing musical chairs and worried about getting caught without a seat. I'm not opposed, but the roster is a little jammed right now, so unless someone like Polanco or Farmer gets dealt, we'd be pushing Gordon (presumably) off the team, which leaves things very thin in the OF.
  3. jmlease1
    I just don't think Hicks can hold up in CF if we needed him there; defensively he's just not particularly good any longer, and while he might still cover more ground than Matt Wallner in the corners, he doesn't have Wallner's arm. So he doesn't really provide the kind of Buxton insurance I would want in signing an OF. the ability to punish lefties is nice, but last year's work was only 74 PAs and he doesn't exactly have a consistent track record of mashing lefties. And he certainly doesn't start over Wallner or Kepler. If Kepler gets moved as part of a deal for pitching, I might be interested in him for depth, but I think I'd rather roll with Castro and Gordon as the OF depth with Martin in the wings than throw millions at Hicks (who you have to think is going to get $5M or more, even if he's not going to get $10M). Bit risky to hope that an aging OF with a real injury history and 5 seasons of struggles has been fixed just by getting out of NY, based on a decent half-season in Balto.
  4. jmlease1
    A pretty fantastic team. Interesting that Carew only swiped 19 bags total under Martin, considering that from '73-''77 he averaged 40 SBs, but it was still a huge jump as he'd only taken 17 in total for his career before the '69 season. The Rich Reese season is a heck of an outlier, and maybe screwed the team up for the future: If he doesn't pop like that maybe Harmon stays at 1B (where he belonged) and Nettles gets logged in at 3B and we don't send him packing for a Tiant rental. (I'd completely forgotten Nettles was on this team; imagine if he'd stayed and played 3B for the 70's! Billy was unsustainable as manager (he was so self-destructive he was unsustainable anywhere) but as a turnaround artist he was as good as anyone has ever been in MLB. He's one of the most fascinating characters in MLB, a maddening lunatic, a brilliant manager, a self-destructive alcoholic, a master motivator, a nasty SOB, a loyal friend, and a talented baseball mind. He was all of it and more. I doubt there will ever be anyone else like him. (if for no other reason than he either would have gotten help and the care he needed or been run out of the game) Tough beat for this era of the Twins: those Baltimore teams were really damn good.
  5. jmlease1
    Stick with your first instinct. :P Seriously though: comp Torii against guys like Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton, who spent significant time in their careers playing against Torii and can fairly be said to have played in the same era. All three played CF for a long time (though Torii shifted to RF for the last several years) and all had careers in MLB that were 15+ seasons where they were real players for their teams (Torii's first 2 seasons were cups of coffee that shouldn't really count against him, same with Lofton & Edmonds first seasons). Was Torii better than either of them? I'd have to say no, even though I love Torii. Edmonds was substantially better on offense and while he was overrated on defense...so was Torii when it came to the Gold Gloves. Lofton was more fairly evaluated on his defense (he might not have won the Gold Glove in his best defensive seasons, but he was worthy of 4 of them to be sure) but was also better overall on offense than Torii: those 600 steals make a pretty big difference; Lofton stole more than 400 bases than Torii, but was only caught 61 more times. Hunter had more power, Lofton got on base more. I think Lofton's candidacy was hurt by bouncing around a lot after leaving Cleveland, but I'm not really sure why Edmonds got so little love. Both had the peak years that Torii was missing, and while we remember Torii as being still really good from age 35 on,..Lofton was actually about as good. (both were better than Edmonds at the end, but Edmonds peak was awfully long) Unfortunately, Torii is a fairly distant 3rd to both of those guys.
  6. jmlease1
    Hunter was very good, and was consistently good for a long time. But I think his lack of elite seasons hurts him. Some of his awards were...questionable, and may have had more to do with him being popular and visible rather than him being the best. Out of his 9 GG's, he probably should have landed more around 4-5. All-stars? More like 3 rather than 5. Lots of highlight reel catches and he had some memorable moments, but never had any truly big seasons. One top 10 MVP vote, and that really wasn't deserved. He was really healthy over his career, and that definitely helped his teams: you could almost always count on him as a quality starter for almost every season in his career. But "Better than Baines" is a bad argument for the Hall, and I think Torii's lack of big seasons will keep him (rightly) out of the Hall. And Torii isn't going to have a bunch of ex-teammates and/or managers on the Veteran's Committee shoving him in.
  7. jmlease1
    Hopefully Ryan also learned the lesson about trying to hide an injury: don't effing do it! That was his biggest mistake last season. The splitter looks like it could be a really effective 3rd pitch for Ryan, one that can keep him out of trouble and change hitters eyelines nicely. It also might help him to have his 3 pitches locked in, so that he can work on refinement rather than trying to work on an entirely new pitch, or bouncing back and forth between offerings to see what might stick. I think Ryan is going to chew up a lot of good innings for the Twins in 2024. I think he's a playoff caliber starter, and would argue his use as an opener of sorts in the playoffs in 2023 had more to do with the position team was in than faith in him. (they were in an elimination game, so it made sense to throw everything at it, plus if they win they have a day off following, and then have their ace lined up to take the ball for game 5. I suspect that if the Twins had been up 2-1 rather than down 2-1 Ryan would have gotten a more typical start)
  8. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous about the number of times "doesn't generate a lot of swing and miss" for Morris, but we'll see how his off-speed stuff continues to develop. I think it's very hard to sustain success as you rise through the minors and be a MLB option if you don't have an off-speed pitch that generates the whiffs. That weak contact usually becomes harder contact and the Ks you might have gotten from guys looking at it as it slides on by get spotted by better hitters. But there's still interesting potential here. Matthews fastball impresses, and if he can find the consistent secondary offerings he could take another fast leap. I do think that the change of speed on a change up that otherwise doesn't move much can still work, especially from a fastball-heavy pitcher, but getting better movement will certainly help it play up. It's a very fun group of pitchers to track to see how they're developing. I do think we'll find out a lot more about them when they get to AA and are competing against more experienced and sophisticated hitters. College pitchers should have an advantage over most A-ball hitters.
  9. jmlease1
    If Max Kepler is still on this roster Opening Day, please please keep using your "A" swing, Max. Hit the ball in the air, take your walks, have a good season. It'll turn better results for him than trying to push him into hitting the ball the other way. I don't know if the shift ban really had all that much impact, but even if had a little to improve offense, fine. It probably made the game a bit more aesthetically pleasing and kept the pace up (one less thing to do between hitters as guys shuffled around). I won't miss the people arguing that your team's best hitter should bunt their way on base because of the shift either.
  10. jmlease1
    I mean, I think these guys need to make it work this season for their own careers as much as the Twins do. Alcala is in the best shape: he's shown some success before and his biggest issue is injury, which means someone will take another chance on him even if this season busts for the Twins. Arguably, Balazovic in the next best positioned in that he has all that theoretical "upside" attached to a player who was a highly rated prospect once upon a time, and doesn't have a lot of innings in MLB to drag him down. Sands has had some success and hasn't been awful. Winder is in the diciest spot, as his fastball has been incredibly hittable and it seems unlikely that he can survive even in the bullpen just chucking curveballs. I'm thinking there's 2 spots in the bullpen right now and these guys are fighting for them. Right now, I'd bet on Alcala and Sands, but Balazovic could surprise. Unless Winder unlocks something at Driveline with a new pitch...I think he's about done as anything other than a mop-up dude. I still like Alcala; the slider is a weapon and if the changeup is working he's got something to slow down lefties (which might help his fastball from getting pummeled). we'll see how the rest do. the 8th spot won't get much work and is fairly wasteful unless the starters are back to "5 and Fly"; the last 2 spots are more about being the first calls up to higher leverage spots if someone gets dinged out of the Duran/Jax/Stewart group.
  11. jmlease1
    It's also fair, considering the decision from Twins management to follow up a promising season by cutting payroll. While I don't expect that franchise to be top 5 or even top 10 in terms of payroll, they had quite a few years where their payroll was below average and they reaped substantial profits. With the playoff run, it's likely they at least broke even in 2023 (and I wouldn't bet against them making money; Twins are good at making sure they stay profitable). If ownership/senior management is getting a little uncomfortable seeing "self-imposed payroll limits" being interjected into every Twins discussion...good.
  12. jmlease1
    I'm a fan of Martin, who has a lot of skills, and seems very well suited to being a 4th OF on a team where he might be needed to play a lot and could step into several roles effectively. I think he'd be above average in CF defensively and plus in either corner with his range. While I think his best position right now is on the grass, I'd have no qualms about slotting him in at 2B or even having him patching things together on the left side of the infield in a pinch. not sure where his offensive upside lands: I think he'll get on base and hit for a good average, but he'll hit the limiter if he can't find a little more pop in his bat. That said, his willingness to take walks, swipe bases, and get on base however he can (dude isn't afraid to lean into a pitch; 53 HBP in 3 minor league seasons matters) suggests he'll be an asset. I wouldn't be upset if he got the first crack at being the Twins 4th OF in 2024. but I wish he would have finished the season a little stronger at AAA, since he had a real power outage in Sept. That said, he kept getting on base!
  13. jmlease1
    Reinsdorf wants a new stadium again? I guess he did it wrong in 1990. But it's going to get very ugly for baseball if suddenly there's a run on "we need a new stadium!" from ownership on facilities that are only 20-30 years old. Atlanta & Texas not managing to get 20 years out of their previous stadiums is pretty egregious and this just sounds like Jerry, who is obscenely rich and staggeringly clueless about his own fanbases just wants more. Entitled scumbag. Interesting note: Target Field is currently the 4th newest stadium in MLB.
  14. jmlease1
    It still could make a real difference for the Twins in not having their rights completely cratered though, because if the streaming rights are worth $20M per season even if the broadcast rights are only worth $25M we're no longer looking at a need to drop payroll by $20M+ and wouldn't feel pushed to move Polanco, Kepler, or Vazquez.
  15. jmlease1
    I generally feel like almost no prospect should be considered untouchable; there's a gazillion things that can go wrong even with guys that have the highest upside, most projectable skills, and demonstrated minor league production. But your absolute best prospects need to be guarded carefully and only moved for players that increase your ceiling as a team and will get you guaranteed multiple years. No rentals, and I'm not interested in dealing the best guys to raise the floor of a team, even if there is a gaping hole on the roster. Emmanuel Rodriguez is more challenging to project than some top prospects. He can play CF, but he's not likely to stick there and his tools don't project him to be a great OF anywhere (that said, he should be at least above average in the corners and certainly isn't bad out there at all). His patience is pretty spectacular and having a great eye at the plate is a skill that can translate all the way up the ladder. His contact rates are a little concerning, but the ball explodes off his bat. I think it's probably easier to teach a player to be a little more aggressive at the plate than to go the other way, but does Rodriguez need real work on his contact skills? What kind of holes does he have in his swing and can those be toned down? He's a real test for talent evaluation and player development, because the ceiling is incredibly high, but the floor isn't all that high. If you don't think he can make enough contact as he rises in the org, is going to get taken advantage of for not jumping on his pitch earlier in counts as pitchers get more sophisticated and skilled, and that he definitely cannot play MLB-quality CF...then dealing him for a big haul is a smart play. But if you get your evaluation wrong, it really will come back to haunt you. David Ortiz has haunted the org for a long time, but a lot of teams missed on him before Boston took a flier. Getting it wrong on Rodriguez would be a bigger indictment of the organization. Tough one. Really, really tough. As long as his ceiling is this high, I would have trouble trading him.
  16. jmlease1
    A lot of it depends on how much the Twins try to stack their lineups against pitching matchups, but if I were going to go pitcher-independent, it would probably look something like this (assuming it's the roster we have right now): Julien Polanco Correa Kirilloff Buxton Wallner Lewis Kepler Jeffers Dang, that's potentially a really brutal lineup to have to face. Seems harsh to slot Lewis in at 7, but Correa is the best fit to hit 3rd and if we keep our lefties split up then it's either 5th, 7th, or 9th. Do I have too much faith in Kirilloff as a hitter? Maybe, but I like his upside a lot. If he's healthy, he hits. Feel free to bump Wallner or Kepler up higher if you don't believe in Kirilloff. If Martin makes the roster, he could fit in nicely up top against lefties. His skill set is quite good for leadoff, IMHO.
  17. jmlease1
    Such a shame about Liriano; I saw one of his dominating starts that season and was absolutely blown away. (I think it was the July start against MKE, but not 100% sure.) He was just filthy. Such a shame the elbow couldn't hold up, it would have been amazing to see what he and prime Johan could have done together in the playoffs. I was also at Game 2 of that playoff series and the Dome was absolutely rocking. When Cuddyer and Morneau went back-to-back to tie it up it was absolutely deafening in there, painfully loud. Torii Hunter took all the air out of the place when he decided to play hero ball rather than hold Kotsay to a single; it was a staggeringly bad play. This was a pretty dang terrific team. They were one hitter short and Terry Ryan's dumpster diving for a veteran bats just didn't work out at all: we got nothing from Nevin, Batista, White, Sierra. Take away injuries to Liriano and Kubel (who hadn't recovered from his catastrophic knee injury yet...and even then he was never really the same) and what might have happened? This is definitely a What If? team.
  18. jmlease1
    scholarship from being drafted so high. team that drafted him that high has to prove they weren't wrong, then someone else takes a chance on him because there had to be a reason he was drafted to high, right? then if they have any success at all, someone who try again, convincing themselves that there must be some value to unlock from such a high pick. people have trouble moving on...
  19. jmlease1
    I'm hoping Julien gets unleashed at the top of the order. He seems like a perfect lead-off man: gets on base a ton, is dangerous enough to punish a pitcher who tries to groove one as a "get by" pitch, and has good speed and quality base-running skills. He's been successful swiping bases in the minors and should get more of a green light this season, IMHO. If he doesn't get 10+ steals, then something is amiss. Castro will run free again, for sure. Lewis and Buxton both have the ability for it and the speed, it's just the injury concerns. I feel like neither will run much in the first couple of weeks, but if their knees are feeling good once the season has started they might get a few more opportunities. If Gordon sticks, it would be interesting to see if he can do more swiping bases with the changed rules; he hasn't been that great at it (but not bad either) and if he could do a little more while being more efficient it would certainly help his status as a role player. Martin certainly should be seen as a threat if he makes the club. It would be nice for the Twins to be a bigger threat on the bases, and this year they are better equipped for it than in the past. 2021 & 2022 teams didn't steal much, but who on those teams were you really excited to see try more? I mean, Kepler is a good baserunner, generally...but I don't exactly want to green light him.
  20. jmlease1
    What "blah attitude"? He's been perfectly fine, seems like a good due, and dealt with Farmer ragging him all season without losing it and instead just improved in the field. This reminds me of the days when people thought Torii Hunter was better than Joe Mauer because Hunter was "fiery". I say no to trading either of them; there's no roster issue that says we really need to move one of them right now. I think Polanco is going to get moved, which means there's even less of a roster issue. Julien destroys righties, gets on base a ton and this season I expect him to get unleashed more on the bases. (we'll see if he does better against lefties/gets more run against them) Lee is going to fight his way on to the team sooner rather than later, and that's also just fine. There's plenty of PT at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH for this team to fit Lewis, Julien, Lee, and Kirilloff in (along with maybe Miranda) for the next few seasons while they're all still pretty cheap. Make the decisions when their arbitration numbers start to jump and the team control is running lower. Not to say they are untouchable; if you get a deal for starting pitching for multiple years it might be worth it. But don't dangle them for anything less than star returns and certainly not for any rentals.
  21. jmlease1
    2023 Matt Wallner had an OPS+ of 139. (2021 Miranda was still in the minors, but had a massive season.) Brooks Lee coming up and dropping an OPS+ of 140 or better would be rookie of the year stuff. I think people forget just how good Wallner was at the plate in 2023.
  22. jmlease1
    I think we can pump the brakes on anyone needing to leave the infield: Royce is locked in at 3B as long as he stays healthy, same with Correa. Lee can slide in at 2B and Julien can shift to either DH or 1B, or Lee can spend his first season or so as a super-utility guy who takes all the innings we've been giving to someone like Farmer and play some SS, 3B, and 2B as well as DHing occasionally to get his bat in the game. There's not really that much of a numbers problem going forward, because there seems to be little chance Polanco will be here in 2025 (if not 2024) and a similar issue is cooking with Farmer. And once Julien, Lewis, and Lee are all in MLB it's not like we have a bunch of can't miss prospects hot on their heels (our best ones at that point are OFs like Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins). But even if someone does make a big leap...that's the problem I want to have. Injuries will happen, so Brooks Lee is likely to get some time. Kinda hope everyone is playing well enough and is healthy enough that we don't need him until June/July.
  23. jmlease1
    I think the odds are good we'll see all of these guys in MLB at some point except for Rodriguez and Lewis. Injuries will happen, and even a couple of relatively minors ones at the same time can have you digging in to the minors pretty quickly. I tend to agree there's a good chance Martin will get an early chance in CF, and he's a fine choice defensively for the OF (with ability to step on the dirt in a pinch). I think his on-base skills will translate quickly even if we don't really know what kind of hitter he's going to be out the gate. but I do think the Twins might be comfortable with Castro and Gordon as options in CF behind Buxton, especially if Buxton starts the season with the team confident that he can actually play field from the jump. Rodriguez and Lewis are both very interesting prospects with very different paths, but i don't see the Twins jumping E-Rod to MLB this season unless they have a major need in the corners that they can't fill another way and he's showing better contact skills and less passivity at the plate while still hammering the ball and taking walks. Lewis is interesting, and as a college pitcher he's probably a little more mature (mentally and physically), but he's still behind Festa, Woods Richardson, and Brent Headrick as call-up options to start a game, and I think there's a real likelihood the Twins will add a starter to the MLB rotation and push Varland down as well, so the team would have to start reaching deep like the bad injury/ineffectiveness years to need Lewis in 2024. And I think we're stronger than that now.
  24. jmlease1
    bWAR also counts defense, they just seem to frame it differently.
  25. jmlease1
    double-post
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