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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is the one most likely to have the biggest impact: he's on the 26-man roster from day 1, and if he can stay healthy he's already shown he can be an impact bat. I think he's still in the twins long-term plans, but they're going to keep hedging against him until he shows he can stay healthy. Alcala will almost certainly get another big chance this year; I think he's already in the Twins short-to-midterm plans as a middle reliever/set-up guy...but I also think they look at most relievers as being somewhat fungible and don't expect to have a reliever as a core piece for more than a few years. Miranda is the one who has the toughest road. He doesn't have a clear position, he still looks like he's getting past the injury, and he has other players of a similar age that have jumped past him, while also having guys from the minors pushing as well. Hard to see him back at 3B, almost no chance he's in the mix at 2B (which was his preferred position), so he'll need to find his way at 1B, where he could be a fine platoon partner for another guy on this list going forward, but he'll have to hit. I think Kirilloff and Alcala are in the Twins plans right now, but they're not being counted on as core performers like they were previously thought to be or projected to be. One of the best abilities you can have in sports is availability. All three of these guys have come up short there.
  2. jmlease1
    His success will depend on whether or not he can command the changeup he was developing before the big arm injury knocked him out for basically the year. Alcala has been death to righties with the fastball-slider combo, but needed a different result to be effective against lefties. It looked like it was starting to come around, but we really won't know until he gets another shot at MLB hitters outside of spring training. The velocity is looking like it's back where it needs to be, he's got a weapon in the slider, and if he can command the change he's going to be a very effective reliever if he can stay healthy. I'm a fan of his ability. He's got the talent to pitch late innings, not just be a 6th inning kind of guy. What's unknown to me is how many innings he can pitch in a typical outing; is he strictly a 1 inning guy, or can he get 3-6 outs as needed?
  3. jmlease1
    it's spring training. really hard to get a good read out of that; we've seen guys destroy the ball who couldn't get a hit later. we've seen guys cold as ice have a fine season. Always rather have a good spring training than a bad one, but I've stopped getting excited about numbers and just hope for health.
  4. jmlease1
    If he repeats last year, he's a borderline all-star. His glove would play up a little better in RF over LF (less room to cover and the arm matters more) but he's not bad out there, even if he looks a little awkward at times. He's faster than people realize, it just takes him a bit to get going. i could see his numbers improving this season as he gets more comfortable playing at Target Field and just knowing better how balls play off the bat there. He's not going to be great against LHP pitching, but he's probably better than last season might have suggested: hard to really judge when a guy only gets 46 PAs against them last season. And since he's likely to be the first choice to get platooned for Margot if Buxton is healthy, his exposure will be fairly limited again. Which will continue to make it harder to know exactly how well (or less bad) he really is against LHP but also limits any harm he could cause by facing them. It will be interesting to see if pitchers can exploit his lack of contact; I don't see them having substantially more success in making him chase pitches. His plate discipline is strong and he maintained it last season even during some tougher stretches at the plate where the Ks were really piling up and finished the season very strong.
  5. jmlease1
    SS is in pretty good shape right now (like the entire infield, really). If there's a negative, there's not necessarily an heir apparently to Correa in the system right now (Lewis is locking in at 3B, maybe he could slide back over; Lee consistently has questions asked; Castro is better as a utility guy; Farmer is here now, but might not be here past this season; Noah Miller was traded...leaving Danny DeAndrade, who hasn't played a game above Low A yet). But with the expectation that Correa can stay at SS for at least the next 3 seasons, there's time to work on that pipeline again. I know the metrics didn't have Correa as having a particularly good year at SS, and I think that's probably right: the foot injury almost certainly hampered his ability to make a strong first move, slowed him down a little more when foot speed was never a strong point, and even hindered his throwing with stress planting on the foot. But even with that...he still made the plays out there. I expect his numbers to tick up this season if he really is healthy and feeling good like he appears to be. The positioning is still excellent, the arm is elite, and he really does QB the defense for the infield out there. Watch for 2022 Correa to be out there again.
  6. jmlease1
    Context matters. Sure, Dobnak was basically a "5 and Fly" pitcher, but he was also effective before the injuries basically ruined his career...and the Twins were notably very short on pitching when they signed him to that deal. Locking down a starting pitcher for 4 years at $2M per season looked like it might be really nice business at a time when guys like Lance Lynn would come in at $12M for a season and not even want to be here and we were trying to piece together rotations with Martin Perez and hoping Pineda could get through a season, or trying to claw something together with Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. The Dobnak deal didn't work out because of injuries, but it wasn't a crazy idea and you can't predict injuries, especially one like a tendon rupture. If Dobnak is healthy this season, he could be good insurance against a run of starting pitcher injuries.
  7. jmlease1
    I hope Sabato saved his signing bonus and invested it carefully.
  8. jmlease1
    Cuddy & Koskie might both be fun. Mientkiewicz? I'm sure he'd have things to say. Always Johan. Would also like to hear from Greg Gagne, Brian Harper, and Juan Berenguer if they were interested. how about the return of naked BP and Mike Redmond? LOL Brad Radke and the Art of Not Walking Dudes?
  9. jmlease1
    I will say I think the Twins have a competitive advantage in signing former MLB players to minor-league contracts having their AAA franchise be in Saint Paul. Considering what a massive pain it is to be moving around all the time, knowing that you can sign a deal with the Twins and get one apartment and not have to move if you get called up has to be a selling point for some of these guys. (I bet it makes being a player who bounces back and forth a bunch of times from AAA to MLB during a season a heck of a lot easier too) Not sure Brigham is going to do much, but I don't mind the Twins taking a flyer on him to see if there's something to unlock. As long as you don't buy too many of these lottery tickets, it's fine.
  10. jmlease1
    Literally every thread about Brooks Lee has at least someone suggesting moving Royce Lewis to the OF. Most threads about the OF, especially related to Buxton and his ability to play CF someone wants to move Royce Lewis to the OF. Every thread about Royce Lewis has someone suggesting moving him to the OF. I would say yes, there are fans who keep pushing the idea of moving him to the OF. I don't think it's with ill-intent or anything, and it would be a way to potentially put the best players in the lineup most often...but the front office has stated pretty clearly that their plan is to keep him on the dirt, so it's a little wild for it to keep coming up as if it were realistic, especially since he has little experience there. Some of this feels more like fantasy baseball managing rather than actual MLB.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm really excited to (hopefully) see a full season of Correa and Lewis as the left-side of the infield. I think that could be awesome. Correa is really smart when it comes to positioning defensively and I'm sure that will help Lewis' development at 3B as well. And I think both will hit. SS & 3B are in very good hands.
  12. jmlease1
    I think if Kirilloff shows star talent at 1B and has a big, healthy year it's still far more likely that Julien gets moved to being a primary DH than Lewis gets moved to the OF. Everything the Twins have done and said has them installing Lewis as the every day 3B. Julien had a heck of a year mostly playing 2B and they're still giving Brooks Lee reps there, and likely will give him more time there than at 3B. Kirilloff is more likely to spend time in the OF than Lewis, but fans keep banging away on this "move Lewis to the OF" shtick. The only way Lewis is moving off 3B this season is if he gets hurt himself and doesn't play the position, Correa gets hurt and they decide they'd rather have Lewis step back in at SS rather than have Lee try to go there (not sure which way they would go there, but I'm guessing they, like me, would rather not think about it until they need to), or Lewis completely implodes this season.
  13. jmlease1
    we did. and before the payroll cut I would have said we would have been thrilled with him accepting...now, I'm afraid the FO was thrilled he declined (which everyone expected) because who knows what they would have had to do to get within the ownership's self-imposed payroll limits? That said: Gray left his start yesterday with a hamstring issue...
  14. jmlease1
    It'll be really interesting to see where Royce Lewis lands after a full season, and whether or not he can make it through a season injury-free. (he hasn't played anywhere near a full season since 2019, so it's more than fair to be concerned) It's fair to expect a little regression this season...because he was playing at an all-star level last season! There's room for him to still be pretty dang great even if he slips back a little as the league adjusts to him and he has to start adjusting back. But there's a lot to like in his performance from last season: he still took walks and didn't just hack at everything. He got better at 3B as the season went along. The work-ethic and attitude are fantastic. The depth behind him is good: Farmer and Castro can fill in short-term easily, and Lee is projected to be superior defensively at 3B and his bat certainly looks quality. I think Miranda is not much of an option there any longer; he struggled defensively before and with the lingering shoulder problems it's hard to see him being able to make those throws. 1B seems to be more of his destiny (though it's important to remember that his preferred position is actually 2B, not that he's jumping in front of Julien or Lee there either). I'm pretty happy to pencil Mr. Grand Slam into the lineup every day at 3B and letting him cook. Getting another 70 games of Royce Lewis on the Twins this season is one of the big areas where they can be better than last season, and I'm frankly just excited for him to get to show his talent. Hoping for good health for a good dude.
  15. jmlease1
    the other reason farmer is still around is his high levels of positional flexibility. he can play any position in the infield (he's even the emergency 3rd catcher) and is still probably our best option to play SS behind Correa if needed. He's even viable to run out to LF in a pinch. There's a ton of value in that, especially if he can keep thumping LHP pitching effectively; when you don't have to make a corresponding defensive move when using a player as a pinch hitter, it keeps your bench available for another move if needed. It's part of why Castro is so useful late in games, even if he's only an average-ish offensive player: he can come in and pinch-run, make some noise on the bases and then take whatever position is needed in the field. Farmer brings some of the same. Vazquez was probably the harder one to swallow: he had such a rough year at the plate that it dragged his overall value way down. But he was still quality defensively, and it seems likely that he helped Jeffers grow behind the plate as well. I think Vazquez is back based on risk-avoidance: while the twins might have felt ok about a a catching combo of jeffers and Camargo, the lack of anything proven behind them probably wasn't a risk they were willing to take. It's pretty remarkable that jeffers and vazquez were the only two guys behind the plate at all in 2023 and they reasonably thought they could be in a lot of trouble if they moved vazquez. The poor return opportunity certainly didn't help; this FO doesn't seem to like letting go of players they think have value for less than what they think they are worth. Happy to have them both back.
  16. jmlease1
    It's not a very inspiring list. Lot of guys who look like they are washed up (Grienke, Cueto, Keuchel) or are coming off significant injuries/haven't seemingly bounced back from a significant injury (Syndergaard, Odorizzi, Boyd, Velasquez, Clevinger) plus the ancient wonder of Rich Hill. On a minor league contract? Some of these guys might fit. but if Desclafani isn't ready by opening day I'd rather have Varland than anyone on this list. Syndergaard or Odorizzi probably have the best chance to get it back together, but I'm sure they both want MLB deals. I don't think I'd give it to them. (the less said about Clevinger the better, IMHO)
  17. jmlease1
    I feel like it's going to take a significant injury to have a non-roster hitter make much of an impact, if any. Guys like Larnach, Martin, Camargo, and Severino are well-positioned to step in for the short-term dings players pick up during the season, and we having even mentioned Brooks Lee who will likely be pushing for a chance. Martin (and Lee) also has a lot of positional flexibility, which limits the opportunities that someone like Helman might normally get a shot at. For Goodrum, Prato, or Helman to even have a chance to make a significant contribution will likely require not just one substantial injury but a second one at a similar position. The 40-man has tightened up with the season approaching, so without players moving on to the 60-day IL there's just not a lot of room and it seems like a lot of room at the back will be grabbed by pitchers. Pleased to have this kind of depth in AAA...but honestly I'm hoping not to see these guys at Target Field.
  18. jmlease1
    Is the question "what is the biggest question at 2B in 2024" or "when will Brooks Lee be in MLB and where will he play?" because I don't think they're the same question at all. The biggest questions at 2B in 2024 are: will Julien continue to improve defensively, will Julien get any opportunities vs LHP to see if he can improve there, can Farmer effectively punish LHP when he does play and hold up against RHP, and can Julien make a little more contact when he does swing at pitches in the zone? You might notice that Brooks Lee isn't involved in any of those. Because if Julien is hitting like he did last season and fielding like he did at the end of the year, the only way Brooks Lee comes up to play 2B in 2024 is going to be based on injury. Maybe it's Julien going down, or Kirilloff getting hurt and Julien moving to 1B. Lewis getting hurt again (please, no!) and Lee jumping in at 3B. And that's ok. I'm a huge Brooks Lee fan; absolutely thrilled that we were able to draft him and I think he's going to be an excellent player for the Twins. But last season was his first full season as a pro, and he didn't exactly light AAA (which was a hitter's environment) on fire. We don't need to be looking to clear space for Lee to play in MLB this year; space will likely make its own way through injury or ineffectiveness as it almost always does. 2025 might be where the tougher decisions will happen...but 2024 performance will probably dictate some of that as well.
  19. jmlease1
    Well, he's probably not there for that long with Lee waiting in the wings, but calling Julien "lousy" seems a bit harsh: he wasn't great defensively at 2B, but he a) wasn't awful, and b) got quite a bit better as the season progressed. Farmer is more than solid defensively at 2B, Castro is fine there as well, so there's plenty of depth. With Lee, Martin, Schobel, Keaschall in the pipeline as well 2B is well-stocked. So, no: we won't miss Arraez greatly. Julien and Arraez had almost identical OPS+ last season and we were able to get the front-line starter the team desperately needed. We would miss Pablo Lopez a heck of a lot more. Maybe it's time to move on regarding Arraez, eh?
  20. jmlease1
    interesting year. There's almost always someone you didn't expect to make the team that makes the team out of spring training...but it's hard to find one this season absent an injury. the position players are set unless someone gets hurt; even if Miranda absolutely destroys every baseball he meets, he's not getting a job out of spring training unless Kirilloff or lewis pull up lame or something. Larnach could show mastery of curveball destruction (for the first time), but isn't getting an opportunity unless Wallner or kepler can't go. Starters are set with Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, and deSclafani; Varland could add another 2 mph to his fastball and he's still not getting the nod unless someone else is dinged up. Last bullpen spot might be it. I expect it to be Staumont's if he's healthy. I have a hunch they're not going to take a long man north this season, at least not at the start, and will try to have some of their middle relievers throw more than 3 outs when a starter doesn't get past the 5th. it's a good and deep roster. There are some real ifs that will determine if this is a good team or a real contender, mostly health-related. (Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Kirilloff, Paddack, DeSclafani, Stewart come to mind) the others are things like : which Max Kepler do we get, 1st half or 2nd? how much (if any) will Wallner drop off? Do Ryan/Ober have another gear? Should be fun to figure out. but right now, not much heat in a positional battle anywhere.
  21. jmlease1
    He really has had a messed up development track: between trades, the pandemic, getting pushed up levels, and some injuries it's been a pretty rocky road for the dude. But the good news is he's also just turned 23 this season. I still like his talent and if adjusting his release point helps his velocity and he can still sharpen his command, then he's got a chance. Right now he's somewhere in the 7th-9th place in potential Twins starters IMHO (clearly behind Varland, but could be ahead or behind guys like Festa or Headrick) and I'm looking forward to seeing how he responds in spring training and starting the season in AAA. he's showed he can be effective, but he needs to command his pitches and not hand out too many free passes. when he has that BB/9 down closer to 3 he looks a heck of a lot better than when it climbs over 4.
  22. jmlease1
    the prospect they got in return seems fine, I was just a fan of Miller's glove at a position the Twins have had some trouble finding guys who could really be plus defenders at for some time. And let's be fair to Miller: career .644 OPS, which he basically was in high-A last season as well: not .600. Is that 44 pts of OPS enough to think he can hit his weight in MLB? Maybe not, but the glove is legit. he hasn't hit well at all in the minors, but he's also just turned 21. I'm mostly just worried the Margot, who is clearly slowing down, won't be good enough in the field or at the plate to be worth the ABs he could get. I'm less worried that the Twins have missed out on spotting a sudden increase in Miller's hit tool, but I did like his glove. Maybe DeAndrade is a better fielder than I think.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm unenthusiastic about this move. As insurance against a significant Buxton injury I guess it adds to the depth, but I don't see Margot really being the kind of lefty-masher we'd like to see as an OF option. He's gone from a quality defender to a not-so quality defender over the last three seasons and while he does have splits in his career that favor hitting against LHP, it's not like he's been consistently great at it. I'll be concerned that he's going to be one of those veteran players than if he struggles out the gate will keep getting chance after chance or more playing time than he merits with a better option available in Martin (or even Larnach) staying buried in the minors. TB sure seemed to want to get out from under his contract, and LAD barely assigned him a uniform before moving him out. It's a little concerning. I guess this also means the Twins are feeling certain that Miller won't hit? they might be right, but his glove seemed like it was worth keeping in the system. It's hardly a disaster, but I'm not feeling very inspired by this move.
  24. jmlease1
    Paparesta's ability to keep Buxton, Correa, Lewis, and Kirilloff on the field will be his big sign-posts for success this season. All three have had significant injury issues, and while Correa was able to keep playing and got healthy by the end of the season he was unquestionably hampered for most of the year. It's probably not fair to judge him on his ability to keep 4 guys who have struggled with durability playing and playing well...but it's going to be the key question this year for position players. Despite moving on from Polanco, Gordon, and possibly Taylor the Twins still have good depth amongst their position players with a quality bench and prospects ready to step forward. We have 2 catchers we can count on in MLB plus a prospect in AAA who looks ready to take on some of the burden if needed. Castro and Farmer provide a lot of flexibility even if they might be overstretched as every day players, and Austin Martin and Brooks Lee are high quality prospects who also seem ready for trials in MLB. (not to mention guys like Miranda, Severino, or Helman). Staring pitching is the other area where you hope Paparesta can help keep guys whole, because that is an area where they are a little thinner on proven guys. Lopez was a horse last season and hopefully Ryan learned his lesson about trying to hide an injury. (maybe the biggest knock on the new trainer, that he wasn't able to instill enough trust in the program that Ryan still thought not telling anyone and trying to play through it was a good idea?) but Ober has had issues before and Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off a lot of missed time. Team has enough relief depth that while making sure Duran and Stewart stay healthy is obviously a priority, there's a ton of depth in the relief corps going into the season.
  25. jmlease1
    Festa has the stuff and the pitches to be successful in MLB, and I expect to see him in 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if he wobbles a bit in his first taste, but that's also not the sort of thing that will necessarily downgrade him. What will be interesting to me is how he does with his command in AAA. If he can get the BBs down to 3 or so per 9 then his stuff will play and he's be on a great path to be in the rotation in 2025. And if AAA has the same tight automatic zone as last season, then if he's able to compete effectively there and command his pitches then he'll be looking up. Festa does a great job of keeping the ball in the park and he's not super hittable. He hunts Ks effectively and has the pitches to get really good hitters out. But he's got to sharpen that command and avoid too many free passes. I'll be watching his WHIP this season to see where he's landing. I think Canterino has the stuff to be more dominant, and Raya might be as well, but until Canterino shows he can stay healthy and Raya shows he can throw 5+ innings consistently then Festa is the best prospect we have to add to the rotation in the near term. Hope one of these promising starters can transition into the rotation for next season.
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