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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Respectfully, we don't know what information he's working with so declaring that he read it wrong is not really fair. We can certainly dislike the ideas and the outcomes, I've voiced as much a few times lately, but some of your conclusions are a bit unfair. Analytics aren't a bulletproof strategy, they provide advantages over a larger sample size. You might notice that at no point have I used one particular example, because that isn't a good way to approach it. A single decision, using analytics, could be wrong based on the decision maker and the circumstances. (Or just dumb luck) The benefit of an analytical approach is on the macro level. To that end, the team HAS changed. Significantly. Three years ago (and again the last two years, their biggest mistakes) they went with uppercut swings, aggressive plate appearances, and minimal small ball. Driven by the data they had on launch angles and ball flight....they were right! 2019 they were a freaking launching pad that got thwarted by the small sample of the playoffs combined with MLB swapping out the baseballs on them. 2020 was largely the same positive result. The problem was that they were not flexible enough last year to realize that path was doomed. But this year they did. Their launch angles are down. Their plate appearances involve the most 1-0 counts in baseball and the league's highest OBP. (at least as of a few days ago) They have completely, radically changed their approach driven by the data and the new baseballs. (Not to mention the uptick in off speed pitches being thrown) So, frankly, you're wrong. They have quite obviously changed. They haven't just slightly altered the team's approach, it's like watching a completely different organization from 2020. Analytics is about being data driven. That comes down to having good data and good analysts. When things go south it could be blamed on either of those things. When it goes well, it also gets credit. The key for any good team using data is to be smart and ahead of the curve on which data points they value and how they translate that into success. Shouting down "analytics" like some monolithic boogeyman misses the real nature of their use.
  2. TheLeviathan
    That isn't the logical conclusion at all. It's specious reasoning. Analytics is a process/approach to decision making, sometimes it will be used to great success and other times not so much. But let's be clear: Analytics is NOT "computer says, we do". That notion is absurd. What data analysis does is look for patterns that should drive decision making towards the best chance at the best outcome. It assures nothing, it is an aggregator that guides best practices by looking for patterns. The team is simply following that guide the best it can in the context of each individual game. Sometimes it will yield wonderful results (which are easy to forget or not notice because it was successful) and other times it doesn't. There are no guarantees no matter the approach you use. Rocco going with his gut and leaving Smeltzer in there might well have blown out the kid's elbow or caused the same result. Last year the analysis the Twins did on data yielded horrible results. They incorrectly saw Simmons, Happ, etc. as viable solutions. They were absolutely wrong. This year it's abundantly clear that they shifted the focus of their analytics and strategies to better success. It's the kind of philosophical change of gears you only see with a team invested in analytics. If this was the Terry Ryan regimes of old we wouldn't see this pivot because they were never able to do anything other than "their way". (Something they were quite proud of even as it mired us in losing) Analytics offers the opportunity to be flexible and responsive, which this team's success is demonstrating. There are no perfect solutions and it isn't robotic. It definitely doesn't have to be this kind of boogeyman.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Analytics is why the team is working more counts, going the opposite way, leveling their swings, changing the way their pitchers approach their craft, employing defense and shifts, etc. Seriously, your argument is pure emotion. It has absolutely no basis in fact. Analytics is not some evil boogeyman.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Analytics is why this team is in first place.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Perhaps my phrasing of "stretched out" is problematic. Maybe it's more like he's on a regiment with limits given his time away? As in.....we'll let you flirt with 80, but we're not going past that until you've been pitching for awhile.
  6. TheLeviathan
    It's not lazy, it's just reality. In the case of any of the players you listed, did they pitch in 2021? Because Smeltzer didn't. I think people forget that he's coming back from injury and hasn't been all that stretched out given the time he's missed. Teams have pitch limits and plans for players with injuries like the one Smeltzer endured and given the time missed. It's ok not to like that, but everyone does it. It probably has medical merit as well, even if we don't like it. The mistake, IMO, was in the choice to replace him (I'm good with Duran too!) or to pull the escape hatch on Duffey when it was obvious things were going south. That was a classic "Joe Smith comes in and throws two pitches" situation and we let Duffey rot. That part is inexplicable to me.
  7. TheLeviathan
    It was the most he had thrown all year. If he wasn't stretched out for more than you don't run the risk of injury. This is the reality for all teams right now. Your argument lacks the necessary context.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Definitely feels like we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. * Going to the pen in the 8th is totally ok with me. Not warming someone up when the second guy reached was a mistake. When Duffey is on, he's on. But when things go sideways he has a tendency to unravel. * As others have said, the Royals blue-printed the way to approach it in the top of the inning, but Gordon should've been the pinch runner. *I feel like there have been a lot of times this year where I scratch my head at our third base coach's decisions. Nobody out and bases loaded is a time you have to execute, but it should've been a tie game at that point.
  9. TheLeviathan
    Phoenix is a long gameday commute....
  10. TheLeviathan
    Look, you can certainly feel that about Anderson's remark. It isn't relevant, hard as that might be to swallow. Donaldson employing that phrase in a scrum is a jackass move. He meant it to be hurtful and rub Anderson the wrong way. Pretending it was a joke only doubles down on that. And here's the part where you need to look in the mirror: MLB didn't suspend him for anything regarding racism. You think they did and imply it here, but YOU planted that into the conversation. And it sure feels like you're looking so hard to be offended by it that you never bothered to check the truth value of what you're arguing. Here's what the MLB ACTUALLY said: And they are 100% right. It was disrespectful. It did show poor judgment. It was clearly baiting given his knee on Anderson a few days earlier. He was THE key part in that escalation.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I don't know if he intended to be racist, but I know saying what he did as a slight made it possible to perceive it that way to Anderson and others. And if I were Donaldson and I opened that door, my apology would've looked a lot less jackassy. He lost my sympathy with "but I was joking....derp"
  12. TheLeviathan
    Everyone should just listen to what Judge said, he hits it spot on. And he doesn't shy away from saying it again even after a private apology from JD. Think whatever you want about whether Anderson should've made that comp in the first place, dropping it in the middle of a brawl after you kneed the dude off 3B and spent the series chirping is, at best, pure stupidity. He did it to upset Anderson, knowing why it would upset him, and then a totally BS line of reasoning to excuse it. I'd have had a lot more respect for Donaldson and his intentions if he had just said "I got heated and wanted to say something nasty because I was pissed off, but I crossed a line I shouldn't have. It wasn't ok, I'm sorry."
  13. TheLeviathan
    This deal will only look better as it ages.
  14. TheLeviathan
    1. I don't know how anyone can argue Baldelli is mismanaging the 'pen. The bullpen has been phenomenal, the Twins are all but undefeated once they have a lead, and he's getting production from a near constant shuttle from AAA. Honestly, I don't know what successful looks like if it ain't this. 2. I said it at the time: the deals with the Rangers and Yankees were about creating flexibility and looking for upside. Garver has really struggled, Rotervdt looks like damaged goods, and Donaldson is a DH a third of the time. It's possible they knew his future was there and that Buxton's health would require more use of that spot. They also bet on helping Sanchez improve behind the plate, that Urshela would be a leader and a defensive stud, and that the money freed could land them something spicy. All of those things are happening and the team is so much better for it. A similar move with Rogers/Paddock didn't work out in the near-term, but it was the same kind of thinking: don't let the past have too much influence over the future. Swing for upside. 3. The young players are really developing. They've missed on some bats it looks like, but man do we seem to have the development pipeline humming right now. Frankly, and I know I'll have boos chucked at me for this, but it's time to start thinking about extending this FO. They're doing what they came here to do.
  15. TheLeviathan
    When umpires suddenly change their strike zone....you don't have time to learn it. Arraez was forced to foul off a bunch of pitches out of the zone because the umpire was calling a weird zone all of a sudden. Arraez literally did not see a strike in that entire at-bat.
  16. TheLeviathan
    I don't know if that question fell by the wayside, but perhaps more digging should have been done into other teams passing on him for medical reasons. I feel like the question you pose here was explored more from a "can he bounce back to the top young arm he was?" and less "is his arm good to go?" I feel like that part of it did get brushed aside a bit because, let's face it, it's hard to find a pitcher these days that doesn't have a history of arm problems. I'd like to hear more from the team about why they thought differently than the Mets on the medical side.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Good process, unfortunate result so far. Anyone who judges a trade with years of outcomes undetermined is bound to look like a fool more times than not.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Is that you Beck Bradford?
  19. TheLeviathan
    Some posters here and their inspirational nonsense really need to start getting partial credit for authoring these entries.
  20. TheLeviathan
    He most assuredly did not leave a pile on the table. If this was his walk season he'd only have given the FA market yet another indication that his availability is what it is. He and his agents knew full well that this was well within the cap of what he'd earn given his circumstances.
  21. TheLeviathan
    There isn't much for the potential sellers to sell, so not sure I care at this point. The team has a lot of interesting in-house options for these positions already depending on development.
  22. TheLeviathan
    I don't think you know who Drew Butera was or what he hit like.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Clearly Lewis was holding this team back.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Yes, but that's why this contract made sense. Byron Buxton was never going to be a 7 year/300M guy despite all the posts around here about it because he simply can't stay healthy enough to warrant that. But his impact and health does warrant the deal he got. What people have to accept is that getting 100 games out of Buxton is likely MORE than we can reasonably expect. He just went through his 22-27 year old seasons averaging far fewer games than that. It is who he is: a transcendent talent, with a ton of heart, but with part-time availability.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Wrigley is a dump. Take in the history...sure, but the actual ballpark is utterly unremarkable. And since that's the case...it's hard to ignore all the absolutely awful components of it. Sightlines along first and third are atrocious. The wind off the lake there can make even a warm summer day uncomfortable. Venders are few and far between. The bathrooms are gas station level. The food isn't much better. And there isn't really much "traditional" in the experience either. I'd much, much rather hit a game on the south side.
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