Jocko87

Both sides struggling with the zone at least.

Here’s a fresh relevant example. I can see differences but I don’t know what they mean. Apparently the Orioles do.

This discussion is a great case study for both the stat heads and the old school eye test folks. I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face, it’s not having the data, it’s knowing what data applies in a given situation and applying it correctly. No argument from me that stuff+ and all that is off the charts. Problem is a lot of bad relievers have good stuff. There is a robust trade market based almost entirely on seeing an adjustment another staff isn’t making. There isn’t an analytical number for tipping pitches that I’m aware of. Outliers eventually return to the mean. In Jax case, the weak contact numbers appear to be the outliers and not the results. Tonight wasn’t rockets all over the field but they were well hit by a hitter with a plan. Without some adjustments they will be rockets soon enough. High walks, low Ks, with a high volume of contact, soft or not, tells the old school guy in me there’s a darn good scouting report on him. I don’t think we are hearing the real story through the press conferences, at least I hope not. “Everything is great, keep doing it” is an ok public stance but it better not be what’s happening in practice. Bad luck correcting is not a strategy.

Brooks Lee did play, went 0-4 and had one the oddest missed catches on a stolen base attempt I’ve seen in the top of the 8th.

Agreed, I’m not taking someone from a different tier, rather tiebreaker in that tier. If my scouts are convinced Wilson is a tier down that’s disqualifying at #5. We’ve heard from a lot of pundits but not a lot of scouting departments yet. I’ve been looking a bit for some data on high school success rates but I’m couch bound on a phone tonight. It’s far better that it used to be but the Angels tonight remind me of the variables. Mickey Moiniak was 1-1 for someone else, Jo Adell 10th and that Trout guy.

Fun fact about me, related to absolutely nothing. Reid Detmers is from the area I just moved from. I got to watch his parents watch his no-hitter at Home Plate Bar and Grill in Springfield IL. I didn’t talk to them but everyone knew them and what was happening. It was a ton of fun to watch.

If they could all be 1-1 the mocks reflect my value proposition for the most part. College players have less unknowns and less risk. I am trying to draft best player available as well but I’m not a scout so I have to use a valuation method. I would take a long hard look at a Jack Wilson before I took Clark or Jenkins based solely on positional flexibility. Of course that becomes a scouting question but I’m trying to pick as close to a sure major league regular as possible in the 1st round. I wouldn’t even consider someone who is already a first baseman. Bringing it back to the thread topic, the only reason Nick Gordon made the big leagues is that he started as a SS. I would not have drafted him out of HS, college maybe. I agree, roster fit is the wrong term. They should absolutely be looking at competitive windows, balancing asset categories and projecting timeframes. They are absolutely overloaded with LH hitting outfielders throughout the system. As for Buxton and Lewis, a healthy one of either doesn’t exist yet. A healthy Buxton is on planet Trout and in a completely different category. I’m comparing actual Buxton, a 4-5 war 100m salary building block. I’m not against Lewis in center but I’m very against treating him like a utility player. Move him with purpose in the off-season if it has to be done.

Agreed, but they would be in the mix at 1-1 in that case. Clark may stick in center, he may grow out of it in a year. Carroll was the 16th pick. Hindsight would have him 2-5 not getting ahead of Rutshman for anyone and not ahead of Witt for me. I’m taking the shortstop almost every time. It’s a personal philosophy in general and I believe fits the next 3-5 years for the roster better. In this case I want the college RH outfielder or an ace. Mayo’s new mock yesterday had both high schoolers gone with the Twins getting Langford. To me, that’s like Lee falling to 8. Don’t limit our comps to the Twins players with Lewis. He still has a path to Machado or Altuve 2.0 which is more valuable than Buxton 2.0. They should take that path until it runs out. He doesn’t move for Miranda.

I live here and those references are things but would never think to assemble them in that order.

Whats a turbo tub?

They have a few innings. I mean a full effort over an off season with the intention of learning the position. If you are convinced they can't do it, trade them now for more shortstop types. Fill the infield with two way players whenever possible. Outfield will sort itself out. I'm not really interested in the two high school lefty outfielders in the draft this year for the same reason. Less value now and future.

On Lee, there almost no chance we see him before September. With the prospect promotion incentive program any team that brings up a top 100 propect mid season is crazy or desperate. It heavily incentivizes prospects breaking camp but penalizes half seasons. Pretty good bet for him to break camp next year though. On Julien I can’t see taking a very good glove out of the infield in Lewis to make room for an all thumbs 2nd baseman. My calculus has changed on this with Miranda showing less and less functionality at 3rd. I believe most of the speculation about Lewis in the outfield is based on Miranda assumptions. I don’t want to be in the situation the Marlins are with a never before CF and a poor fielding 2nd baseman. It degrades two spots. Even if Lewis would be good out there he’s more valuable at 2nd or 3rd. We can find center field defense. I’m convinced Miranda and Julien need to learn the outfield to have a long term future on this roster. The guys they will be fighting for playing time with are poised to be fixtures. “Knocks wood gif”

Interested to watch Zach Neto as well as the big guns. He should be a good Brooks Lee comparison.

No but I think it hit high on the leg. It doesn’t matter how much gear you wear, the ball finds the hole. I feel like the sta-puff guy when I go behind the plate and have like 5 welts as I type this. I think one of the Dodgers hit himself between the foot and leg guard?

I usually go to at least one weekend series in KC when the Twins are in town. This seems like a pretty likely opportunity. I don’t have KC connections for helping set up a tailgate but I’m good at drinking beer.

I don't think we see a roster where a Castro type isn't on it. Lewis won't fill that role. Maybe Helman works his way into the discussion when he's healthy again but they value that versatility heavily with a 4 man bench. Castro needs to be evaluated differently that a standard position player as the ask is different. He's not getting good match ups or the chance scout his day at X spot. He gets the leftovers and is functional. His role is statistical sacrificial but very valuable.

I like this comp. I don't like the idea of bouncing him around. If he was going to convert to CF make it an offseason move and stick with it. If he can stick at third base with excellent defense he is far more valuable to the team, his agent and himself. One of the main reasons I don't like him moving isn't injury risk, its lack of playing time over the last several years. His games played/age ratio is off the charts with covid and the injuries. He's going to have lots of adjustments to make, they should minimize whats on his mind for the time being. Miranda moves around to accommodate Lewis, not the other way around. 1/1 draft, potential multiple time all stars slot first, especially when they are clearly better on both sides of the ball. If we have to have this discussion vs Lee next year its a good problem to have. Lets get Lewis established first.

Cano is a good story so far this year but we shouldn't crown him after 21 innings. Relief pitching is volatile, scouting has been updated and he has a correction coming. Good for him though, I'm always happy to see traded prospects do well.

Yet somehow 10th in runs scored. Average performance with bases loaded gets them to 6-7 range. There are reasons to be optimistic about this offense when some of the odd things normalize. They will not be league leaders in average or OBP but just getting in the top 20 is reasonable and exciting. Always good to step back and compare to the league for context. It's so easy to just watch our team and make wild extrapolations. The offense can be frustrating as heck to watch especially situational hitting but you know what would really be frustrating? The Guardians and the Tigers, bottom two in the league in runs scored, by a lot. It's much harder to see upside for those offenses.

He has 3 games in the minors. I'm speaking it into existence. If he can be functional while hitting RH it unlocks so many options for this roster and frankly, it may be his only path to consistent playing time long term.

They do an incredible job overall but also agreed as part of the last contract that they would work with MLB on the ABS system so nobody is making bad calls because of it. We are just hearing about it but it’s been on their minds for years. The challenge system is a non-starter for me. If the ABS is good enough just go with it. It can be done with most fans not even realizing something changed. The call of the ump on balls and strikes has never been an item that could be questioned so if we are going with tech don’t change that fundamental. I spent way to much time in the other thread explaining how none of the people eligible to challenge can actually see what they are challenging. The challenged calls at CHS all proved the ump right. It would be a mess. I’d almost want to be the first to get thrown out for arguing against ABS. As an aside, I’m also pretty much done with phases like “without repercussions” “never anything done” etc in this conversation. Like any of us knows a damn thing about what happens behind the scenes. If anyone has a copy of the contract I haven’t seen it. We don’t know details of if they are fined, pay docked, bad assignments, sent to the minors etc. I get that everyone remembers Cuzzi from way back but stop pretending we know things that aren’t in evidence. I would also argue that we shouldn’t know about umpire discipline except in the most egregious cases. Neither Cuzzi incident would qualify for me.

Left fielders, both of them. I’m not joking either. Maybe one of them will take to it well enough to play right. They can be in the 1B, DH, OF rotation if they hit. If not they will both struggle for playing time even on less stacked rosters. I’m sure both of them can play left as well as Gordon was playing center and that will be enough if they hit. We cannot have 30 grade defense at the prime positions. I’m convinced Lewis is the primary 3rd baseman when he comes up. There is no reason to move him anymore and we’ve seen the risk it brings. From both the team and player/agent side it’s the right move. Farmer can fill the role he’s designed for. Lewis/Lee/Polo is a future discussion. Let’s get Lewis settled and productive first. We are all tantalized with the kid but he needs a lot of game time to make up for the last 4 years of minimal game action. There will be struggles but he can still glove while he adapts. The less we move him around the better.

I'll take it!

As a terminal optimist I choose to look at this series in a positive light. Buxtons quotes after yesterdays game are exactly right. Just like the Yankee series there is enough good that they realize that they can play at this level and enough kicks in the clackers to remind them there is a lot more work to do. I’m of the opinion that DFA Pagan is part of that work but chill out on the FO. This is the most talented 40 man roster most of us have ever seen in our Twins fandoms. The bullpen is the easiest group to fix in season and there is time to do it. It might have actually been worse for the overall season had they swept this and the Yankee series. Now get back to work.