TopGunn#22

I haven't written a blog for a long time. But I have an observation, & that's all it is an observation. My observation is how rich the Latin heritage is in modern MLB. Players like Roberto Clemente, Luiz Tiant & Orlando Cepeda quickly come to mind. Twins' early successful years were greatly influenced by players like Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Camilo Pascual, Zoilo Versalles & Caezar Tovar, whom I loved to watch growing up. 
Throughout the years, we've had good Latin American players coming through the International Draft. Even recently, we had Luiz Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, Miquel Sano, Jhuan Duran, & Jose Miranda, who were all very promising prospects & showed early signs of greatness. While Latin players have been a viable source of our winning formula, I have to ask why our roster lacks them? They seem to put some of these players in difficult conditions to hinder their success, While the Twins love to hold onto certain players who fit their profile (many who IMO, should have been traded), they seem to be quick to trade away our valuable Latin players. I also question their International Drafting philosophy, where they focus on quantity over quality, they throw a bunch against the wall & hope something sticks. Which IMO, makes it very difficult with the Twins developing based more on getting data to the prospects & let them figure it out & less on essential good personal coaching. They have also gotten away from scouting & focus on analytics, which IMO, especially hurt our international drafting. Now I'm not saying that the Twins are biased, but I'm saying that maybe the Twins' analytics don't favor the Latin players.
I'm an old fart, I don't see baseball as fantasy baseball driven by biased stats or as HR Derby where whoever hits the most HRs wins. I love baseball because it's a strategic game played by human beings with emotions, variable intangibles & underlying conditions not hard & cold data void of all human elements. I see analytics is a valuable tool, but it should not drive the game. Latin Americans love baseball; they bring a lot to the game, and they shouldn't fall through the analytical cracks. Therefore, IMO, analytics should be put in it's place. Twins need to improve their scouting & developing, bilingual coaches should have a preference or maybe teach English better & integrate better. Buxton has expressed his desire to speak Spanish. Last but not least, IMO, I think the Twins' manager should be bilingual. This would be beneficial to provide continuity to the team. IMO, Nelson Cruz in some role should be a part of that.

Amid the trade rumors surrounding Joe Ryan’s true breakout season, there are various fan bases putting out their mock trades to acquire the Twin’s ace before the deadline. In a sellers  market, Minnesota could capitalize on Ryan’s value, which very likely may never be higher, or they could extend Ryan, signifying him as a building block for future Twins teams. So far this season through 17 starts (18 games) Ryan has pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 104.1 innings with good peripherals, which accumulates to a 3.9 bWAR. These are frontline-esque pitching stats, and although Joe Ryan was snubbed from the AL All-Star team, the league is certainly taking notice of his performance. Ryan has been a very good pitcher since his debut in 2021, but he seems to have taken the next step in 2025. Joe Ryan is under control through the 2027 season, so nothing needs to be urgent, but I think it would be wise for the Twins to extend him as soon as possible.
Joe Ryan is currently pitching in his age-29 season and has 2 years of arbitration control following the current campaign. He is making $3 million this season in his first trip through arbitration and has roughly $5.5 million in MLB career earnings thus far. At this point in the season it is difficult to predict arbitration numbers for the offseason, but typically if salaries start low, they stay fairly low in comparison to others. With that being said, for this exercise we will predict Ryan would make $6 million in 2026 arbitration and $10 million in 2027 arbitration.
 
Potential extension
A potential extension for Ryan could be something along the lines of 5 years, $95 million. This would give him a raise in his final two arbitration seasons, and buy out 3 free agent years. This proposed deal would have Ryan pitch his age 30-34 seasons with Minnesota before possibly re-entering the market going into his age-35 campaign, where there could still be some strong earning potential. The proposed extension would take the following structure:


This proposed deal would give the Twins 3 more years of club control and guarantee Joe Ryan approximately $79 million more dollars (accounting for expected arb-year increases). Obviously, this all depends on if Ryan is comfortable in Minneapolis and would want to accept this life-changing money now, or bet on his breakout and possibly earn more money down the road. That also goes to say who knows if the Twins front office would be able to offer a deal of this size right now, given ownership concerns. I personally have no good connections to any MLB front offices, and this is completely from a fan standpoint, but I think this could be a solid framework to begin negotiations of a possible extension. It also should be stated that extensions such as this one more often happen during the offseason, so that is something to keep in mind.
 
This deal also gives the Twins more stability for their rotation in the future, as the top 3 of Lopez, Ryan and Ober are all on pace to become free agents after the 2027 season. It is highly unlikely they will be able to retain all 3 guys, but getting one locked up now may increase the chance they can extend Lopez or Ober in the future if they choose. An extension would give the Twins the following rotation outlook for seasons to come.


This gives the Twins a frontline guy they can build and develop young arms around. As they say, an ace helps prevent losing streaks, and Ryan is well on his way to becoming one. The deal gives Ryan a very nice payday and great financial security, but gives the Twins upside in that if he keeps performing at this level, this deal could become somewhat of a bargain the way that the price of pitching keeps increasing.
 
As I mentioned before, this is purely for fun, and there is no real steam behind this (at least that I know of.) As a diehard Twins fan, I would love to see Ryan stick around for many more years to come, and would have to think really hard about my fandom if they traded him at the deadline for anything short of a crazy prospect like Roman Anthony and change. Hopefully you enjoyed the article, let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!
 
 

The Twins traded a year of control in the Berrios deal. Some are speculating his trading Ryan and his two additional years of control. What would it take for that deal to work out?
The Twins traded Berrios with the current and next season of control. In those two seasons he gave the Blue Jays 1.5 WAR and -0.6 WAR.
Key elements to the deal
the Twins were clearly out of the playoffs and gave up the one extra year of control with a shot at the playoffs. they acquired two well regarded prospects. Martin had a future value of 50 and Woods Richardson a future value of 45. they replaced Berrios’ salary with Sonny Gray. Their 2022 salary was virtually the same but the Twins also had an additional season of control in 2023. Lopez salary slotted in to that top spot in 2024. The Twins received a comp pick for Gray and used it for Kyle DeBarge. Woods Richardson projected as a back end starter at an FV of 45 has fulfilled that projection thus far. He may outperform that projection if he approaches an average starter. Martin has not yet fulfilled his projection of an average regular.
Overall the Twins maintained that salary slot from Berrios to Gray to an extended Lopez. Had they extended Berrios they probably would not trade for Gray or choose to extend Lopez. The cost for that slot that Lopez now fills was a season of Berrios (replaced by Gray) and Chase Petty a 50 FV prospect. Would they be better off today with an extended Berrios and Chase Petty or an extended Lopez, Woods Richardson, Martin and DeBarge? I think they are better off with that trade.
Matching up the key elements
the Twins would be trading 3 possible playoff seasons of Ryan as opposed to 1. If they play themselves out by the deadline it would be 2. to give up that extra season of control and possibly 3 seasons of playoffs I would hope they would get significantly more than players with an FV of 50 and 45. Ownership needs to be committed to replacing Ryan as they were with Berrios The elements don’t match up yet. They should wait a year and consider dealing Ryan if they are out of contention next year. At that time hopefully the uncertainty of ownership will be cleared up and there will be commitment to replacing Ryan prior to the 2027 season. Better yet let’s hope Ryan is leading them to the playoffs in 2027.

Every offseason, we offer our You’re The GM! tool (formerly the Payroll Blueprint) to build your ideal Twins roster. This year, we’ve updated and streamlined the tool a bit to improve the experience.
The idea behind this feature is to give fans a chance to play the role of General Manager (or CBO or PoBO… you get the idea) for their favorite team, the Minnesota Twins. It’s meant to give fans the opportunity to discuss (and, let’s be honest, argue) how they would approach the long, dark MLB offseason.
This tool is intended to be informal and fun, so we’ve left it as open as possible. There is a payroll “budget” that loosely resembles the Twins' 2024 payroll, but there is no penalty for going over that number. It’s a guideline, nothing more. Second, you can submit as many blueprints as you like throughout the offseason. As the offseason landscape changes, users often return multiple times over the winter and create new blueprints.
Before we get into the breakdown of the tool, you can save your blueprint and come back to it at any time. The only restriction is that you must register an account on the site to create a blueprint (so we can save a draft for you and also post the blueprint for others to discuss).
Let’s get into the tool itself. It has four quadrants that work best if addressed in a counter-clockwise order (this tool works much better on desktops due to its complexity but will work on mobile devices if need be).
Top Left: The 26-man Roster
We have created a rough guideline of what the Twins 26-man roster looks like today. The roster is flexible; any player can be added or removed as you see fit. We’ve also included either guaranteed salaries or, in the case of arbitration and contract options, the recommendations of MLB Trade Rumors. This section is where you build your roster and make changes based on the following two sections. As you make changes to players and salaries, the total payroll number (right side of the screen) will change, allowing you to track your budget on the fly.
The bottom field in both columns is for any dead money you assume during the course of your offseason. Acquiring dead money should be rather uncommon but we want to present users the opportunity to take on dead salary if it suits their purposes.
Bottom Left: Arbitration & Trade Decisions
Here, you will find a selection of arbitration options and internal options (usually from the 40-man roster or minor leagues) to assist in building your offseason roster. On the right-hand side of this column, you will see Trade Candidates, a list of the 35 players most likely to be traded this offseason, per MLB Trade Rumors. To help you get up to speed with these candidates, we offer a direct link to the MLBTR write-up on trade candidates.
Bottom Right: Free Agents
Here, you will find the top 50 free agents, again per MLB Trade Rumors. These are sorted by position to facilitate quickly finding your desired free agent and include the recommended salary for that player. Because this is a blueprint for a single year, we only include their projected salary for the coming season, not the number of years or anything else. To help you get up to speed with these free agents, we offer a direct link to the MLBTR write-up on the best 50 free agents available this winter.
Top Right: Dead Money, Your Total Payroll, & Commentary
The only unalterable field on the page is Dead Money; it is players to which the team has committed money but has no reasonable way to get out of the contract. Below that, you will see the recommended budget, your current total, and the percentage you are over or under that budget. Again, keep in mind the budget is only a guideline, and you can go above it as much as you like…
But defend your choices, coward! The following field is Title, which gives other users an idea of what to expect with your blueprint (e.g. Sign Juan Soto, Damn the Consequences). When your blueprint posts for other users, it will read “Your Username’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Sign Juan Soto, Damn the Consequences”.
The following field is Your Comments & Explanation, a long-form field meant to type out the rationale behind your decisions. Here is the place to fully explain your trades (including which players are leaving the Twins to bring in new players), why you targeted specific free agents, and, any promotions from the minors you advocate or any options you declined to extend to a specific player. This is often multiple paragraphs, you can write up as much detail as you desire.
That’s it, you’re done! At this point, you can either publish your blueprint to the forums or save it for later if you feel it’s incomplete.
Thank you for joining us at Twins Daily. I hope you enjoy playing the role of general manager, at least for a moment!
Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now

I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
 
But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.

Every year my brother and I make preseason picks just for fun just to see if we differ and who gets more right. Without further adieu:
My brother’s picks:
AL Division winners:
Orioles 
Twins
Rangers
Wildcards:
Yankees
Rays
Astros
NL Division winners:
Braves
Brewers
Dodgers
Wildcars:
Reds
Giants
Diamondbacks
League Champs
Orioles
Dodgers
World Series victors:
Dodgers
My picks:
Okay. Here's mine.
AL  Division winners:
Orioles 
Twins
Astros
Wildcards
Yankees
Mariners
Blue Jays
NL Division winners:
Braves
Reds
Dodgers
Wildcards:
Phillies
Giants
Diamondbacks
League Champs
Orioles
Braves
WS
Braves
Happy Opening Day everyone!

Let's take a look at what ESPN has the Twins Projected for stats wise. 
Jeffers- 68-280, 39 R, 13 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 32 BB, 87 K, 1 SB, .243/.331/.436
Santana- 104-454, 58 R, 23 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 65 BB, 94 K, 2 SB, .229/.324/.416
Julien- 123-494, 74 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 92 BB, 184 K, 12 SB, .249/.370/.407
Correa- 137-516, 70 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 61 BB, 116 K, 0 SB, .266/.345/.440
Lewis- 128-450, 73 R, 19 2B, 0 3B, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 45 BB, 107 K, 10 SB, .284/.353/.513
Wallner- 86-374, 55 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 59 BB, 150 K, 3 SB, .230/.356/.436
Buxton- 86-377, 66 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 53 RBI, 39 BB, 121 K, 11 SB, .228/.308/.501
Kepler- 110-439, 71 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 49 BB, 103 K, 5 SB, .251/.330/.451
Kirilloff- 109-415, 55 R, 20 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 39 BB, 113 K, 2 SB, .263/.338/.439
Castro- 90-369, 58 R, 17 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 27 BB, 100 K, 25 SB, .244/.311/.379
Margot- 92-339, 43 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 22 BB, 56 K, 9 SB, .271/.319/.392
Farmer- 72-296, 36 R, 13 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 18 BB, 62 K, 2 SB, .243/.304/.375
Vazquez- 66-280, 28 R, 13 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 20 BB, 57 K, 2 SB, .236/.287/.336
 
Lopez- 14-8, 3.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 32 GS, 196 IP, 219 K, 54 BB
Ryan- 11-7, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 GS, 166 IP, 196 K, 39 BB
Ober- 11-8, 3.78 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30 GS, 169 IP, 170 K, 33 BB
Paddack- 6-5, 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20 GS, 96 IP, 86 K, 21 BB
Varland- 9-7, 3.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 26 GS, 142 IP, 156 K, 39 BB
 
ESPN still has DeSclafani projected for 10 starts. They also have starts going to Canterino, Woods Richardson, Festa, and Boushley. These projections don't list Games for Batters. These numbers also seem similar to the CBS Sports projections, which seem a bit unrealistic compared to Fan Graphs. 

Hey Twins fans! This is the fourth post in my series about Minnesota Twins baseball cards. Please read my first post here for deeper detail on my series.
1968 Topps Game
This insert set from the 1960s is unique. It’s a very limited set and like the 1964 Topps Giants seems to contain only the best of the best. The cards measure 2.25” x 3.25” so slightly smaller than today’s standard sized card. The cards resemble a deck of playing cards. The complete set has 33 cards, three of which are Twins players. Each card has a color image of the player, facsimile autograph, and a game outcome. This set contains a second year Rod Carew (#29) after his rookie card in 1967 was a dual card with the Senators’ Hank Allen.
Rules for the game can be found at https://www.beckett.com/news/1968-topps-game-baseball/. Seems to me you would go through the cards quickly and maybe there should have been more cards in the set. But I have never played. Maybe I should try to get the full set and play?
According to the same Beckett website above, these game cards were inserted within the third series release of the regular Topps baseball cards from 1968.
THE BEST
Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew fight for the best Twins card in this subset. Because Rod Carew has no solo rookie card in the 1967 set, I’m going to choose his card as the best simply because it's one of his first stand-alone cards.

PERSONAL FAVORITE
I’m going with the #5 Killebrew as my personal favorite simply because his outcome was a double and Carew’s was, unfortunately, a ground out. Hey, I’m competitive and would want to win this game!

MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
Just like my earlier entry about the 1964 Topps Giants set, when there are only three cards in the set, somebody has to be named “most obscure,” at least according to the format I set for this series. So like Camilo Pasucal in the 1964 Topps Giants set, Dean Chance gets named most obscure Twin in this game set because the other two cards show Hall of Famers. But, hey, at least his game outcome was a strike out (which I assume was a positive for a pitcher in this game).

Dean Chance was an excellent pitcher. He won the Cy Young Award in 1964 when there was only one winner for all of MLB. His career record was 128-115 with a career ERA of 2.92. Now he did pitch during the year of the pitcher (1968), but that career ERA measures up very well. His career ERA+ was 119. Chance came to the Twins in a December 1966 trade with the Angels; the Twins gave up Pete Cimino, Jimmie Hall, and Don Mincher. The Twins got 13.1 WAR from Chance in three seasons. The trade seems like a win for the Twins as the players they gave up combined for 5.7 WAR for the Angels. While playing for the Twins, he led the American League in innings and starts in 1967, which was also one of two years he made an All-Star team. In December 1969, Chance was traded by the Twins with Bob Miller, Graig Nettles, and Ted Uhlaender for Luis Tiant and Stan Williams. This trade seems like the Twins screwed up both ways. Nettles was obviously great for many years, some contend he is worthy of the Hall of Fame. And some also argue the same for Taint, who the Twins released in 1971.
Chance retired after his age 30 season. It was said by Wikipedia and other websites that his body broke down perhaps because of funky wind up where he essentially turned his back the batter. Interestingly, in retirement he was a successful carnival operator and founded the International Boxing Association. I have vague memories of Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writing about Chance and the IBA.
If you disagree with my opinions, I would love to see your opinions, criticisms, and suggestions in the comments below. Don’t be too hard on me. Let’s have fun with this!

A lot has been said about the Twins’ offseason, especially regarding comments made by members of ownership and those in baseball operations about the payroll decreasing.
 Some frustration, on one hand, is warranted considering the optics that inevitably surround explicitly telling fans that payroll will decrease immediately after the most successful season in the past 20 years. However, with how the roster is constructed, spending a lot of money in free agency never seemed likely. The Twins have a lot of young talent under team control for a significant amount of time, including the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran just to name a few. Having that level of talent making pre-arbitration or arbitration one numbers is just naturally conducive to having a lower payroll, and it never made sense to spend for players to play positions that are already filled with those young talents. That being said, there is some room for spending during the 2024 offseason. So, let’s go back in time to November 2nd, 2023, and re-do the Twins’ Offseason.
I am going to constrain myself to some rules for this thought exercise. The first rule is that I am going to be as realistic as possible so unfortunately, Shohei Ohtani: you are not a Twin. My second rule is that for any players that have already been signed, I will be using their real-world contracts here. For example, the San Francisco Giants signed outfielder Jorge Soler to a 3-year, $42 million contract. Therefore, if I were to sign him to the Twins, it would have to be for 3 years and $42 million. This, again, is to ensure as much realism as possible for my exercise. With that out of the way, let’s get started.
1.   LHP Shōta Imanaga (4-Years, $53 Million)
     With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both being free agents, the Twins have a need to fill in the rotation. In 2023, Sonny and Kenta contributed 6.8 fWAR to the team. Maeda’s 1.5 fWAR contribution can be replaced in-house by Chris Paddack’s full return to the rotation. FanGraphs’ projections system projects the 50th percentile outcome for Paddack’s 2024 to be worth about 2.1 fWAR. That still leaves 4.7 fWAR to be replaced. Another portion of that will be filled by the progression in the young careers of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as they (hopefully) have healthier and better seasons when they enter their 3rd full year of service time. That still leaves room to fill with an outside addition, because resigning Sonny Gray never made sense as Sonny Gray himself is unlikely to replicate his 2023 season and giving 2024 Sonny Gray 3 years and $75 million never made sense due to the very likely regression of the aging pitcher. This was made more apparent by the disparity between his expected 2023 ERA, which was calculated by Statcast using his batted ball data, falling at 3.66, and his actual 2.79 ERA. While trading for a starting pitcher with control makes the most sense, teams with starters to move like Milwaukee and Miami seem unlikely to move anyone.
     This brings us to Shōta Imanaga, the 30-year-old left-hander out of NPB’s Yokohama Baystars. The 5 '10 pitcher pitched to a 2.80 ERA in 148 IP while pitching to a 10.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in NPB action. He led World Baseball Classic pitchers in Stuff+, a measurement of the movement and velocity of pitchers. This was off the back of his 4-Seam Fastball that, while it sits in the low 90s, has nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break, meaning most batters swing under the pitch expecting it to drop more than it does. To compare, Joe Ryan’s fastball averages 17 inches of induced vertical break, helping him strike out an absurd 29.3% of his batters faced. Imanaga profiles to have a fastball with a very similar effect, while also having better control than Ryan does with his fastball. Imanaga backs up his fastball with a very versatile arsenal, common for Japanese pitchers. He also throws a sweeper, a traditional slider, a splitter, and throws in a curveball, cutter, and changeup for fun. The Japanese pitcher’s fastball-slider combo is something that the Twins have valued in their pitchers and would allow him to fit right into the Twins’ rotation. In real life, Imanaga signed with the Chicago Cubs for 4-years and $53 million with player options in 2026 and 2027 and a club option in 2028, bringing the total potential value of the deal to $80 million, something the Twins could afford, especially with the year-to-year flexibility this contract gives the player and team.
     Some would point to the Twins’ failure in previous NPB dealings such as Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a reason the Twins should be hesitant to sign NPB talent. However, pitchers transitioning from NPB to MLB have a much better track record than hitters such as Nishioka. The current Falvey-led front office is also radically different from the Terry Ryan-led regime that last gave contracts to NPB talent. Shōta Imanaga looks to be a very good starting pitcher in MLB and one that could absolutely contribute to the Minnesota Twins’ rotation.
2.   1B Rhys Hoskins (2- Years, $34 million)
     Perhaps the Twins’ biggest holes throughout the 2023 season was their weaknesses against left-handed pitching and an inability to get consistent value out of their first basemen. The Twins hit a league average 100 WRC+ against LHP compared to a 111 WRC+ against RHP, ranked 5th in MLB. While Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023, he also showcased an inability to hit left-handed pitching, and his health remains a question. After missing most of 2023, Jose Miranda also needs to reestablish himself as a viable option for the Twins. A great way to kill both of those birds would be to sign the former Phillies’ first baseman: Rhys Hoskins. Though Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, he had a potent 2022 where he hit a .794 OPS (123 OPS+) with 30 home runs. Importantly, he had a .945 OPS (163 OPS+) in 174 PAs against left-handed hitting. While Hoskins’ defense is not very good, posting -6 Outs Above Average in 2022, however, 1B is the least significant defensive position. As long as whoever plays there can catch a seed from Carlos Correa, it’ll do.
     In real life, the slugger signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for two years and $34 million. The deal includes an opt-out after the first year, as well as a mutual option for a third year that would raise the total value to $48 million. A right-handed hitter was the Twins’ biggest need going into this offseason, and with that price and fit, Rhys Hoskins is likely the best option the Twins could have had.
     This is the one that gets to me personally; if Rhys had any interest in playing for the Twins with the same price and contract structure, that is a deal that the front office should absolutely have pounced on and one that the Twins could end up regretting.
3.   What I’d Keep
     The Twins did work to improve the roster in real life, and there is plenty that I would replicate in this scenario. The Twins project to have one of the strongest bullpens in all of baseball for 2024, much of which is thanks to moves made this offseason.
     In this universe, I would replicate the Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon trades, Although these two were fan favorites, they unfortunately did not have guaranteed roles on the 2024 roster with the emergence of Edouard Julien and Willi Castro. The combined return of Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Okert as well as borderline top-100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez do enough to improve the bullpen, depth, and farm system to justify moving Polanco and Gordon to Seattle and Miami respectively.
     The other move I would replicate is the Jay Jackson signing. Jay Jackson is an intriguing arm with a plus slider and fastball. He was signed for 1 year and $1.3 million with a club option that can raise the total value to 2 years and $5.45 million. For that low of a price, there is very little that can happen that can cause the Twins to regret this move.
     As Rhys Hoskins is a Twin in this alternate universe, there is no role for Carlos Santana to be on the roster, so that deal won’t be replicated.
 
For the first year in what feels like forever, the Twins came into the off-season looking very competitive and only requiring tweaks to the roster to be able to continue to compete. With the additions of Shōta Imanaga and Rhys Hoskins, the Twins could solidify themselves as powerhouses in the AL.
That being said, the Twins real-life roster looks to be very good on the backs of Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton. So, even if this offseason was a frustrating one, enjoy this upcoming summer, as it looks to be one of the most fun ones in recent memory.
 

In a previous post I had posited that the Twins should not make any moves for pitchers unless thay HAD to.  There is no NEED for a Postseason Starter until/if you make the postseason, os hang onto trade chips until you need to cash them.
Signing a FA however is a different story, even though a quality signing would necessitate dumping some salary, and that is different than trading young prospects for quality pitching..
I wouldn't touch Blake Snell. even though he has 2 Cy Youngs, he just doesnt go deep enough into games (although that would actually make him a perfect fit for our philosophy).
 
JOrdan Montgomery would be a great cherry on the top of this offseason..  Currently the Twins project to be at roughly $123M for the season.  There has been "talk" of up to $140M on the budget with a redone TV deal in place. While that is still $20M below last years payroll, it still leaves $17M on the table.
Montgomery is apparetly looking for something bigger than teh Aaron Nola deal which was 7 years $172M. or basically $25M per season..
 
at 31 years old you would be buying the back half of his 30's as a premium, that being said he has been for the most part healthy over the last 3-4 years, and really in another 5 years an average starter will cost darn near $25M. SO I would say that something around a Nola deal would not be a huge overspend. There is however another option, a short term higher AAV with opt outs, similar to the Initial Carlos Correa deal.
 
You sell him on Sonny Gray just signing a 3 year $75M at 3 years his senior after pitching with this team. A full year with 1 team (which he hasn't had in 3 years) pitching in a weak division, with the potential offense the Twins have, and he is a potential 20 game winner if he pitches to his recent season averages of right around 3.00 ball.  Lets throw a 3 year $90M deal on the table with opt outs after each year, Include a 4th year $20M option with a $10M buyout to allow him to hit the $100M mark.  
If we go there, we would need to clear about $13M from the payroll stay within the $140M top end payroll projections.
This could be done easily. with ANY combination of moves.
The usual suspects:
1) Kyle Farmer has $6.25M on the books. That is a decent amount for a utility infielder, even if he is a decent quality. We still have some depth to replace him even with trading Gordon/Polanco.
2) MAx Kepler has $10M on the books.  while losing his defense we have Larnach, Kirilloff (if Santana is primary 1B), plus Castro an possibly Martin who cold claim a spot. That being said while Max could garner the most in trade, I would hate to see him go (coming from the guy who wanted a bag of used BP balls for him last year!!)
3) Christian Vasquez also has $10M on the books. While a good clubhouse guy, Jeffers deserves at least 60% of the ABs from catcher if not more. and $10M for a back up catcher is just irresponsible for a team claiming to have budgetary concerns.
Moving JUST TWO... ANY combination of two from above clears enough to bring in Montgomery.
In other words, ask yourself this...  If Montgomery were a trade candidate and he was making $90M over the next 3 years, and his team offered you him for Kepler an vasquez, would ANYONE say no???  NOPE.
After a succesful year 1 with the Twins, and being a Boras client, he would most likely opt out of the remaining 2 years, at which point the Twins can designate him with a QO and get draft pick compensation.  And heck, he would be great trade bait in the off chance the Twins arent in contention.
 
Either way you cut it, a short term higher AAV deal, or a longer term deal closer to $25M he would/could be an affordable add. and all the Twins would need to give up is trading away redundant or overpaid pieces and ask for little in return.
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

Now that spring training is quickly coming upon us. I'd like to ask the question, will the Twins get their promised postseason SP? There hasn't been any inkling that they were focusing on anyone. Jesus Luzardo was my favorite but looks like that's he's out of the question, if ever FO was willing to make the necessary sacrifice. The rentals Glasnow & Burns are gone if FO was ever willing to pay the price (I wouldn't either). Do we have a shot at Cease (CWS)? Interdivisional trade will up the already high ante for us, I doubt it. So we're shot, right?  
I'd like to throw out a last year's suggestion. Everyone needs a 2nd chance, Trevor Bauer. He was cleared of any wrongdoing, He has made peace with Rob Manfred, he has been humbled & has matured. Now IMO isn't a great clubhouse person, but IMO he's not a clubhouse wrecker. & he has shown a willingness to work with young pitchers & he's motivated.
The best part of this is his price tag. He's asking minimal salary with incentives. Something that we can afford. IMO MN is a great place for him to start a comeback. Or would you rather wing it with what we have?

I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 

While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on.  A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here.
And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!"
The Twins have some high  quality prospects on the position side.  Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects.
 
In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no?
Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins.
Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year?  chances are probably not.  Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year?  more than likely.  Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk.  This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year.
 
The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect.
SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez,   for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara,   who says no, Twins or Marlins?

I read somewhere on Twins Daily that the MVP for the Twins in 2023 was depth. After losing a lead in 2022, the Twins added several depth pieces to their roster along with keeping Carlos Correa after it appeared that he would leave due to free agency. Adding to the starting pitching staff by acquiring Pablo López wasn't directly adding depth to the rotation, but adding a solid starter moved Bailey Ober out of the rotation temporarily, so when injuries eventually occurred, they had Ober and Louie Varland ready as the sixth and seventh guys to take the ball. The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor and with Byron Buxton's inability to play center, that depth piece became a regular. Correa's signing meant that Kyle Farmer, pegged as the regular shortstop, could assume a utility role and the Twins signed Willi Castro, a speedy guy with the ability to play several positions, as another depth piece. Nick Gordon had flourished in the latter part of 2022 and was another player capable of manning several positions. Finally, the Twins signed Donovan Solano late in the winter. He proved to be a vital hitter with the ability to fill in at three different infield spots. 
Many, including myself, lauded the front office for the foresight to be ready for the inevitable injuries and underperformances. As mentioned, Buxton never got to center field and only played in 85 games as the DH, José Miranda, coming off a nice rookie year was both disappointing and injured and only played in 40 games, Projected starters Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL and went back on the injury list later in the season. Every position player starter spent time on the IL, one rotation member (Mahle) was lost for the season before the frost was out of the ground and yet the depth (and reinforcements) kept the Twins above water and finally carried them to a comfortable division flag. 
So, this year seems to be totally different. While the Twins appear to have a pretty solid 26-man roster, they have only added a lottery ticket to their bullpen. I know it's only January, but the lack of activity seems telling. There hasn't been any speculation that the Twins were in on a substantial free agent. The club has announced they will be cutting payroll, perhaps to the point that any payroll additions would have to be countered by subtractions. There hasn't been a replacement added for either of the two rotation members who left by free agency and so far no activity to bolster the center field mix minus Taylor. It looks to me like the Twins are going to try to fill these gaps internally, a complete departure from 2023. 
I have belief that players on the roster or in St. Paul can fill those gaps. I think Austin Martin will be a capable outfielder with good speed and bat to ball skills. I think Miranda will come back and capably fill the role that Solano handled so well in '23. I think Brooks Lee will be a future star as soon as this year.  I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League. However, beyond those just mentioned, my confidence is not nearly as high. There will be injuries to the pitching staff and to position players. Most everyone on the 40-man roster will be on the major league roster at some point in the season. I don't see the proven depth to step in when the inevitable rash of injuries occurs. 
I guess the front office is gambling that a) injuries will be manageable and b) the internal options will adequately fill the gaps in the Opening Day roster. I am not so sure, but do understand how tough it is to acquire the help needed with the payroll constraints. 

* a definition of prayer- an earnest hope or wish.
- Blessings & thanks to all TD writers, who continue to give us great articles to discuss even amidst some opposition.
- Blessings to my friends at TD.
- Blessings & thanks to the moderators who keep the baseball forum civil & open
- Wisdom & insight to our FO so they can evaluate our needs & make the right decisions.
- Uplift the lowly & humble the proud.
- Health, soundness of mind & body to all our players so they can achieve their full potential.
- Qualify our coaches to help train our players
- Happy New Year to all & a prosperous season! Go Twins! 

Growing up in the 1950’s was so different for those of us who loved to play baseball. Today you can drive past a ball field during the summer and find it empty. With us we needed to rise early in the morning, have a quick breakfast and ride our bikes to the closest field hoping to be there before another group staked its claim. And besides bringing your baseball equipment, you needed to have a lunch with you. If you didn’t eat lunch at the field you took a chance that the field wouldn't be empty when you returned.
Of course our equipment was different. My glove was a Rawlings John Groth model (outfielder for the Tigers). The glove was small and the web was barely large enough to contain the ball. Only the catcher and first baseman had the "big gloves."
The ball we used was probably coming unstitched and was dark and dirty. If the stitching was too far gone, the ball was covered in electrical tape, normally the shiny kind.
Lastly, we probably only had one or two bats between us and in most cases the bat was probably broken and was held together with either a nail in the bat, or more electrical tape (the non-shiny type acted as a nice grip).  Batting gloves were not thought of at this time, and would have been perceived as unmanly.
We didn’t need adults to organize us, and we didn’t need rides to get to the field.
Most of us played Little League, but usually we were all on different teams. The good players make the “majors” at 10 years old, the lesser at 11 or 12 (12 year olds were not allowed to play in the “minors”).
Our Little League uniforms had been used for a number of years and the knees on our pants probably had a patch or two on them. The shirt and pants were made of flannel, so they lasted for many years, but during the heat of the summer, they were really hot. Our hats and stirrups were made of wool and the stirrups usually needed an elastic at the top of them to stop them from drooping every time you ran.
We had batting helmets, but they were not really helmets, but earmuffs. They were made of leather and came in a couple of sizes.
But baseball was king. There was no organized football for us and very few options for playing basketball. Most football was one or two hand touch and played in the street. Living on a quiet street was a huge plus because you wouldn’t have to keep stopping the game to let cars pass. Basketball rims were at the playground, but many of us hung a basket from our garage and played in our driveway.
Most of us collected and traded baseball cards.
Buying cards was convenient. During the school year, we would walk past two stores near our school that sold baseball cards and penny candy. During the summer our neighborhood was serviced by a traveling store. The vehicle was about the size of a self-contained RV and was like a convenience store on wheels. It came by 3 days a week, and always stopped in our neighborhood, because most of our families were Italian and we had to have Italian bread with our supper.
You could buy cards two ways, for one cent you could buy a pack with one card in it, and for five cents the pack would contain 6 cards.
There was no such strategy of collecting stars. Your goal was to have a complete set, and if you needed to trade a star for one of your missing commons, you’d do it.
Of course we all had a favorite team. Living in Rhode Island there were two options: you rooted for the Red Sox and hated the Yankees, or you rooted for the Yankees and hated the Red Sox. A lot of friends started out as Red Sox fans, but changed their allegiance because the Yankees always won and the Red Sox never did. I would collect and hoard Red Sox players and draw beards and mustaches on Yankee players. I can’t image how many Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra cards I had were ruined because of beards.
Cards were for collecting and making complete sets.
Doubles and triples were used for pitching. Pitching cards was a school yard activity. You would take your extras to school and either at recess or after lunch you’d find an empty area with a wall. Because you were pitching these cards against a wall, there were no cards in mint condition. They all had rounded edges from colliding with a wall, or have creases because you bent the card as you were picking them up off the ground (usually cement or asphalt).
We played three different games and who ever won the previous game would pick the game. The first game was “farzees (pronounced far zees)”. The game was not limited to one player against another, you could put together as large a group as you could find. With farzees you would pitch your card (one toss per player) and the person who’s card stopped closest to the wall would win all the cards. On occasion the card would stand up. A standing card would beat any other card that was tossed.
The second game was “standeez (pronouced stand eez)”. With standeez the person choosing the game would stand a card up against the wall. It would be at about a 30 degree angle. The game would end when someone tossed their card and it knocked the standing card down to the ground. If you knocked the card down, you would win all of the cards that had been tossed up to that point.  Baseball cards were severely damaged in this game. You never wanted to hit the standing card and not knock it down because you didn't toss your card hard enough.
The last game was “topzees (pronouced top zees)”. With topzees the person choosing the game would pitch a card out in the playing area, trying to keep it away from any wall. The winner of the game was the person who would toss their card and it would land on top of any of the cards already on the ground. It didn’t have to cover a lot of the card, just some part of it. The winner would pick up all of the cards that had already been tossed.
Because most of us “pitched” cards, finding cards from the 50’s or early 60’s rarely came in mint or excellent condition. We never anticipated that our cards would ever be worth anything and that the stars would be worth more than the common.  We loved our cards because they were play things, never investments.
Please feel free to leave comments on this article, especially if you are at an age where you may have pitched cards also.
My blog will try to recreate loving the game of baseball and what it was like playing and watching the game in the 50’s and 60’s.
 
 

I know everyone is starting to get a bit nervous, given the Twins' lack of activity this offseason. The season ended a month+ ago now, but I still feel it right to look over what I think the Twins should target this offseason. I'm gonna preface this by saying these are all ideas I think are realistic. I'm taking at face-value Falvey's comments on the TV-deal situation, and the idea that cutting costs is a goal (as much as us fans may disagree with it), thus most of these ideas are involve cheaper options or cutting money to spend it elsewhere.
1. Starting pitching help
This has to be the top priority of the FO going into the season. I agree with not resigning Gray and Maeda at the costs they went for, but it opens up holes that need to be filled. Right now we know the rotation projects to be Pablo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland. In that I see 4 ? marks, Ober and Paddack have durability concerns, Joe Ryan desperately needs consistent secondaries and more sustained velocity, and Varland has yet to be an effective starter at the MLB level. The goal has to be to move Varland to the bullpen, thus I think we can get away with adding just one starter, but I think two would be ideal. I was frustrated with the twins lack of use of their second "long relief" guy they permanently rostered, and worst come to worst I'd be fine seeing a 6-man rotation when needed, maybe it helps keep guys fresh and healthy. I think there are a few good ways we could go about acquiring pitching, and I will also mention the classic twins method I'd expect to see if those preferable routes fail.
1a.. Add a high upside, high risk FA for relatively cheap
-If I were to pick one guy we should be targeting in all of free agency, it would be Frankie Montas. Coming off an injury, and limited success directly before that, he'll be as cheap as he ever will be. I think the concern about pitchers injury history is overblown. All pitchers get hurt, Montas doesn't concern me, he's got a giant frame and has sustained higher inning volume in the past, if there's mechanical issues I trust we can fix those. For those unfamiliar with his repertoire, Montas has a big fastball, and a great changeup. I think if he's just healthy he slots in right behind Pablo. I also think just like Pablo, he's some small tweaks with his breaking balls away from being elite elite. I love the risk:reward ratio here, and would love to see him added on 2--3+ yr deal.
1b. Trade for front end pitching
-There's a few guys rumored to be available, that should be definite targets of the twins, they're young, the have years of control, and they have big stuff. Those are the most important factors in my mind. Because of what I just mentioned they'll cost a hefty prospect package, and rightfully so, but if I'm the twins I'm open to trading anyone not named Emmanuel Rodriguez (I think his consensus value is more representative of his floor right now). These pitchers I'm referring to are in order of my preference: Jesus Luzardo (MIA), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Mitch Keller (PIT), Tarik Skubal (DET). I've seen rumors about all of these guys being available, but if I were to place bets, I'd bet against us actually acquiring any of these names.
-There's a next tier of pitchers that should be available, again young and thus cost-efficient, but a bit less proven and a bit less going on in the developed repertoire department. The names I'd be targeting in this group are Bryan Woo (SEA), Bryce Miller (SEA), Edward Cabrera (MIA), Trevor Rogers (MIA), Reid Detmers (LAA), Patrick Sandoval (LAA), Griffin Canning (LAA). The SEA guys will still take a pretty big prospect haul, but in general these guys are gonna be a bit cheaper to acquire. Again, these are all guys I'd project to slot in as our #2 currently, with realistic developmental potential to become a top-end starter.
1c. Add a more established FA
-There's a couple guys out there that I think are interesting for the twins, they maybe aren't quite as young, but these are good value, solid upside picks. There's only a few guys in here, none of them are particularly exciting, but it's better than 1d, which I'll get too shortly. The first two I'd highlight are LHPs, James Paxton and Sean Manaea, which I think is an organizational need, and they have real solid stuff, and are gonna be relatively affordable. I'd also look at Lucas Giolito, has had some good years, and there's still the potential to develop his breaking ball and get a bit more out of him. I think because of his past success, he'll still net a good contract, possibly pricing us out. All 3 of these guys, as I mentioned, aren't exciting, probably slotting in as 4-5 guys in our rotation, but that's just fine if it allows Varland to be the weapon we know he can be in the bullpen.
1d. The Twins special, add a washed up elder with a bad stuff profile
-This is what I fear will happen. The JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy type additions. We do it way too much and it always kills me, adding these older guys who don't throw hard and don't have any other out pitches left. It's a waste of money, and it's a waste of starts when we could get the same results from AAA guys at a fraction of the cost.
2. Add a Right Handed Bat
-I honestly don't care too much about what position they play, or if it comes from free agency or trade. I do think Hoskins will be too expensive for us realistically, but would love to see that addition. One guy I'd love to see us go after that almost makes too much sense, is Jo Adell (LAA). He's got a top prospect pedigree, has killed at AAA but struggled with production at the MLB level and injuries. He just can't crack consistent playing time with the angels, and I think a straight up trade for Trevor Larnach could be great for both sides as the angels need LHH. Baseballtradevalues.com calls this a fair trade, but I love Adell for us and would be willing to go even higher.  He's a big time athlete, crazy power and can steal bases, he'd play every day against LHP, and if we can get him going he's got huge middle of the order potential. I think it'd be a great pickup with serios boom potential and almost no cost to us. As far as free agents go, Bader makes alot of sense, versatile, hits LHP, can play CF. If you're looking more for an impact bat, the guy that would be exiting to me would be Soler.
3. Trade Christian Vazquez
One of my gripes with this front office, is that they seem very slow to admit mistakes. I'd love to be proven wrong here and see them ship Vazquez off, but I doubt it happens. $20M for the next two years is just too much, he's not getting any younger, doesn't make hard contact, and we saw in the playoffs exactly where he fits into this roster...on the bench. There's a market out there for catchers, the Braves were able to move Max Stassi and his $7.5M within a day of getting him, and he's barely played this year. I'd trade Vazquez for no one, or even give up some low end prospect to give him off the books, but right now if the budget is what we're told, the $10M he's owed this year needs to be allotted to shoring up other weaknesses. I'm not sure what the Twins are gonna do, but it was interesting to see Jair Camargo get added to the 40-man, it gives me a bit of hope that they're at least trying to move Vazquez. FWIW Camargo's bat is electric, and he's gonna get a chance in the MLB some day with some team, would love for it to be here in a 70-30/60-40 type split with Jeffers this year.
4. Add Relief Help
Injuries happen, we have a good bullpen on paper right now, that is a fact, but there should always be a focus on adding depth. We have Duran, Jax and Stewart locked in to high leverage roles as long as they stay healthy, Alcala deserves a shot at that 6th inning-Emilio Pagan role, we forget too easily he's not far removed from being dominant in 2021. His stuff has been great in winter ball, and I think in a one-inning role (I'll revolt if they try and use him in a multi-inning role again coming off injury) he will be great. As mentioned before, it's yet to be seen what happens with Varland, but if he's in the pen, pencil him in for the Duran 2022-lite role, he'll face the best guys when they first come up in mid-late innings. As I said, real solid potential in the bullpen already, and I think there are a couple guys in the minors who could be difference makers too this year, Matt Canterino if he can stay healthy, and Ronny Henriquez, health abiding as well. But, as I said, depth does not hurt, guys in the bullpen will get hurt, it's just a fact. I wouldn't be looking to spend big money on the well known commodities, I'm looking at cheaper under the radar guys with big stuff, who could get a shot at a low leverage role and potentially run with it. There's a few guys I'll namedrop: Shintaro Fujinami, Codi Heuer, Josh Staumont, all of these guys could easily be DFA candidates by midseason, but they also have big time stuff and will be well worth the small risk of investment. The only two well-known names on the FA market that interest me are Jordan Hicks and Wandy Peralta, as I mentioned, I doubt we'll get either, but would be excited to see either in MPLS.
5, Don't give up on the young guys yet
Recency bias is strong, and I think in the case of Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff it's fair, they both were a bit (at the least) frustrating last year. I know both now have injury concerns, but the value their contracts provide is fantastic for a smaller market team looking to cut costs. I keep seeing bigger names thrown around on Twins Twitter for who we should sign in FA to play 1B/DH, but I think it would be perfectly wise to give that position to in house guys. For context Alex Kirilloff was rarely healthy last year, and he still put up an OPS+ of 117, that's a starting quality offensive player. I also think that's fair to assume is near his floor, his bat speed clearly wasn't what it was as a rookie last year, and he didn't provide a ton of pop, but I think there's legitimate potential to regain that bat speed/power and become the 30 HR guy he was projected to be coming up. The context for Miranda is simple, the guy has hit everywhere he went the 3 years prior to last year. Don't forget that every single one of us would have penciled him in happily as the 3/4/5 hitter in the opening day lineup this last year. Sure, his batted ball metrics were never great even in 2022, but he hit for contact and he hit for power, a combo that no one else on this team possesses to the level he did. One injury riddled season isn't indicative of his whole career, and I think he's earned plenty of shots to produce this next year. My point being, it is just too early to give up on these guys, and we've seen that when they're healthy they're just too good for AAA, that's why I do not think the 1B/DH position should be an offseason priority for this team, as the roster stands currently. Even behind Kirilloff and Miranda there's an in-house guy in Yunior Severino who is deserving of a shot at the MLB. Keep the Rhys Hoskins money and spend it on pitching and a right handed outfielder.
That's my TedTalk, let me know what you all think. 

It feels like Twins fans would burn Target Field to the ground if the team trades  Édouard Julien this offseason — roughly a year after they traded fan favorite Luis Arráez. I myself would never do it, but I don’t think it’s such a crazy possibility.
Let me start by saying my opinion right away: I don't think the Twins should trade Édouard Julien. However, one thing intrigues me: how can we be so sure Julien is the real deal? When I remember the kind of rookie season José Miranda had in 2022 and then how his bat disappeared in 2023, I can't help but feel a bit apprehensive. What are the chances the same won't happen to Julien?
Many might say, "There's no evidence that Julien will slump". Well, was there for Miranda? When you compare some of Miranda’s expected numbers with the actual ones during 2022, you find out that the gap between them wasn’t large. I’m not at all an advanced stats specialist, but I assume such a small gap didn’t point out the kind of regression he had in 2023.

Expected stats aren’t meant to be predictive, but if there's a significant gap between a player's expected stats and their traditional stats, regression to the mean should be considered. Since Miranda’s gap wasn’t significant — nor his sample size —, his regression in 2023 is hard to understand.
Was his 2022, both at the majors and Triple-A, a mere fluke?
Miranda’s case is perplexing, and we might get some more definitive answers in 2024. But with his case in mind, I come back to Julien. Say you’re Derek Falvey, and you could go 12 months back in time from today, knowing everything that would happen this year. Would you have considered trading Miranda in December of 2022? If you answer yes, given how you know he’ll regress in the following season, then considering a trade involving Julien right now isn’t the craziest of ideas.
I must remind you about what I wrote in the first paragraph and repeat it: I would not trade Julien right now. Just like I wouldn’t trade Miranda — I still hope he can bounce back. To be fair, Julien’s rookie season was better than Miranda’s, as you can you on the charts below. But even though I wouldn’t personally do it, I must admit: it’s tempting. His trade value is at its peak right now. Provided the Twins would get a haul in exchange for him, I’d be okay with it.

And a potential Miranda bounceback is actually a big part of why trading Julien wouldn’t be the end of the world. If Miranda can figure it out and handle third base on a daily basis, you can simply move Royce Lewis to second. Sign, say, Mitch Garver to be your everyday first baseman, and use Julien and Jorge Polanco as trade pieces to bring in more pitching help. There you have it.
Not knowing if Miranda is, in fact, going to bounce back next year shouldn’t stop you from trading Julien in this scenario. After all, you do have Lewis at third at this moment and wouldn’t need Miranda to step in over there right away. But that would make trading Polanco a considerable risk.
Anyway, I, personally, wouldn’t trade Julien, but I understand why anyone would, and I don’t judge. If Julien’s rookie season wasn’t a fluke, the Twins might have in him a tremendous bat for a decade. And if Miranda can figure things out, this Twins lineup can become a serious threat.
What do you think? Would you trade Julien right now? If so, what kind of return would you expect?
 

jharaldson's blog got me thinking & instead of discussing it on his blog, I was afraid we'd get off-topic so I opened a new one.
1st we have to look at the older fan which makes up a good portion of the total of fans, that would get lost streaming , So cable would make more sense, going back to Midwest Sport Channel or Fox. But cable is more expensive & we have to make Twins games more accessible. The older fans are less active so cable works but more active younger fans needs apps on their phones & something cheaper than cable. If I could buy cable the main reason is to watch the Twins but in Brazil, Twins games are absolutely not an option on cable.
Ownership needs to know that the Twins fanbase is dying out. How? #1 Twins fans are literally dying  #2 Tickets are too high for most fans #3 Twin games assessibity is very limited, #4 Twins are not as competitive as they should be, so they aren't attracting new fans, #5 as a State we are losing that family/ baseball connection on all levels.
Now with some Twins success IMO we have gained some new fans so how do we maintain them & further grow the fanbase? Creating new clean city uniforms won't do it (not that it hurts), Getting back to to main idea of making the Twins games accessible we need a combination of cable & streaming. We can be creative about this & be much more conservative with the blackouts, So even people in Brazil can watch them. Reducing the ticket prices, will attract more people along withsome of  my other suggestions. All with the goal of maxing the attendance, maxing the attendance elevates the teams moral, elevating the moral, team wins more games, win more games you increase attendance. As you can see it can produce a snowball affect. So reducing ticket prices can actually make ownership more money. Not including the extra $ from merchandizing & concessions
We must have a more competive team. That means aborting the "Plan" of drafting, signing & hoarding big bats while ignoring the rest like defense & details of small ball. FO has made good steps in upgrading premium positions of SS, CF & SPs; becoming more open to good trading opportunities instead of ignoring them.  Even trying to encourage base stealing & taking the extra base. The other premium position catcher, they got Vazquez which vastly improved the catching (which elevated it to upper mediocre) & pitching. Other than this the catching position has been completely ignored, never drafting any upper level prospects. The ranking of our catching prospects now are super low. When we lose Vazquez, the level of our catching will greatly decrease with no hope in view. We must start to focus on upgrading our catching by obtaining very good/ elite potential MLB ready & soon to be prospects. Pitching we need to at least maintain what we had. FO can't rest on their laurels & let things slide or we'll lose all the new fans that we gained.
We need to encourage & invest in the family/ baseball connection on the State level. By putting baseball in the hearts of families & individuals it's easy to be become Twins fans while improves the community, encourage young people to play baseball & could provide a better avenue of life to some kids.
Those are some that I can think of on top of my head. Maybe you have others because baseball should be important to all of us.

Seattle just traded their 3B to AZ for a back up C and pitching prospect.  They were looking for a second base upgrade before but this makes it even more important for them to trade a starting Pitcher to Minnesota for a package around Polanco.  The pitcher acquired may not replace the starter we acquire but will help give them more depth.  
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/dbacks-trade-seby-zavala-mariners-catcher.html
A deal with trader Dipoto in Seattle will get done.

Awhile back, I was working on a post (still working on it) to identify the greatest season by a Twins starting pitcher. I still haven't entirely decided on that one, but after going through the starting pitching stats for every year since the Washington Senators became the Minnesota Twins (in other words, since 1961) there were a couple of fascinating finds - stats that I doubt will ever be surpassed.
Combined Wins and Losses in a Season
The Twins record for most wins in a season was Jim Kaat's 25 in 1965. Back then, there was only one Cy Young for all of MLB, and Sandy Koufax was the unanimous winner after compiling a phenomenal set of stats: 26-8 record, 2.04 ERA, 160 ERA+, 9 shutouts, and 382 strikeouts in 335.2 innings pitched. Wow. Kaat also set another mark that I doubt will be surpassed, particularly in today's baseball: along with the 25 wins, he also accumulated 13 losses, and those 38 combined results should stand the test of time. It's notable that close behind was Bert Blyleven, with 37, and Jim Perry with 36.
Innings Pitched and Shutouts in a Season
These records are also safe, given the specialized nature of pitching these days. For innings pitched, these days 200 is considered a full season - but the Twins have had three pitchers surpass 300 innings - Bert Blyleven had 325 in the 1973 season, Jim Kaat had 304.2 in 1966, and Dave Goltz had 303 in 1977. Nowadays, pitchers get huzzahs for just a handful of complete games, let alone shutouts, but in that 1973 season, Blyleven had 9 shutouts, far and away the best ever for a Twins pitcher. 
Workhorse Pitcher Season for the Ages
Bert's 1973 season was phenomenal in many respects. On a 81-81 team, he went 20-17, but the other stats are eye openers (including innings pitched and shutouts, already mentioned). His 2.52 season ERA was third best ever among Twins starting pitchers (and those who knew that Camilo Pascual is first with 2.46 take a bow. Yes, Jim Kaat was 2.06 in 1972, but he only started 15 games so that doesn't count - same with strike or pandemic-shortened seasons). Speaking of complete games, Bert also had 25 that year, which is also far and away the best by a Twins pitcher. His 258 strikeouts are also the second most, trailing only Johan Santana's 265 in 2004. On top of that, his ERA+ of 156 was fifth best all time for a Twins starting pitcher. Quite a year!
Best Two Combined Seasons
This one could someday be overcome (give it your best shot, Pablo) but I doubt it. It is also debatable, as Frank Viola and Jim Perry both won a Cy Young and also put together another strong year. Still, this one belongs to Johan Santana. Not only did he win the Cy Young in both 2004 and 2006, he also had the two best ERA+ years, at 182(!) in 2004 and 162 in 2006. As previously mentioned, he put up the biggest strikeout total in 2004 and had an ERA of 2.61 and 2.71 in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Besides that, 20-6 and 19-6 win-loss records weren't too shabby either.

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday.  Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do:
Saturday - Ober
Sunday - Lopez
Tuesday - Gray
Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda
Friday Lopez
Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts? 
 

Why not hype Royce Lewis as AL rookie of the year? Rookies with a full year (or nearly so) in the league have a certain advantage, but none of the familiar names have numbers approaching Royce. Royce is number one in average, slugging, HR/AB, RBI/AB, and OPS.
Rankings by OPS w 200 minimum AB:
Royce Lewis .302/.365/.545 202 AB 14 HR 50 RBI and .910 OPS
Tristan Casas (Bos) .263/.367/.490 429 AB 24 HR 65 RBI and .857 OPS
Zach Gelof (Oak) .268/.335/.516 213 AB 11 HR 25 RBI and .851 OPS
Yanier Diaz (Hou) .285/.309/.536 330 AB 21 HR 56 RBI and .845 OPS
Edouard Julian (Min) .266/.379/.454 293 AB 13 HR 27 RBI and .833 OPS
Gunnar Henderson (Bal) .257/.327/.496 502 AB 26 HR 76 RBI and .823 OPS
Josh Jung (Tex) .274/.323/.489 427 AB 22 HR 67 RBI and .812 OPS

The Twins arrived in Minnesota in 1960, and I have been a close follower since about 1967.  As a kid, I was a huge Harmon Killebrew fan and attended many games where his home runs were the highlight of the day. I also got to see one of the great on-base hitting machines of that era, Rod Carew. They were far different players, but they produced, in my opinion, the two greatest offensive seasons in Twins history, and both were named American League MVP for them - Killebrew in 1969, and Carew in 1977.
What is interesting about those two seasons is how different they were, in terms of the statistics where they excelled - and yet how close they came in a statistic that I believe captures the value of both getting on base and doing it in an impactful way - OPS. For comparison purposes, those grand seasons result in what is, statistically speaking, pretty much a dead heat: Carew's OPS was 1.019, and Killebrew's was 1.011.
So, who had the better season? Carew put up an other-worldly batting average - .388. He also led the league - by a mile - in runs scored, with 128. Unlike most years, he also drove in 100 runs and hit 14 home runs. His .570 slugging percentage was, by far the best of his career. He also had an incredible OPS+ of 178. 
The MVP balloting was interesting: Carew was first on only 12 of 28 ballots. Second was Al Cowens of KC, who had an OPS of .885 and scored 30 less runs while hitting .312 with 23 HR and 112 RBI. He got 4 first place votes - how that is even possible must relate to the fact that the Royals won 102 games, the most in the AL that year. The smattering of other first place votes suggests to me that the voters still favored 'headline stats' like HR and RBI, even in the face of clearly superior overall results.
As for Killebrew, he never hit for average like Carew. In fact, his highest batting average in a full season was .288. However, he did hit 573 home runs and drove in 1,584 RBI. It is notable that his lifetime OPS was .884, and his OPS+ 143. Carew's numbers were .822 and 131.  That said, this isn't about career, it is about the year.
In 1969, Killebrew tied his career mark in HRs with 49 and set his mark with 140 RBIs. What set the season apart was the fact he also drew a league leading 145 walks. Even though his batting average was just .276, he had a .427 OBP. It wasn't Carew's .449, but it wasn't that far off.
Killebrew was a much more clear-cut winner for the AL MVP that year, with 16 first place votes, while the second place finisher, Boog Powell, had 6. It's notable that the 1969 Orioles won 109 games and their division, while the Twins won 97 and their division - and the Orioles dispatched the Twins in three straight before losing the World Series in 5 games to the Mets.
I have a hard time choosing between the two. Carew was a hit or two everyday, and that year his hits were more impactful than most years. Killebrew hit home runs and drove in runs at the highest level, and he also got on base a lot. That said, Carew still had a (slightly) higher OPS. I watched both seasons very closely. I think Carew's flirting with .400 - in a way that hasn't really been challenged since - gives him a slight nod here. That said, it is very slight.