Amid the trade rumors surrounding Joe Ryan’s true breakout season, there are various fan bases putting out their mock trades to acquire the Twin’s ace before the deadline. In a sellers  market, Minnesota could capitalize on Ryan’s value, which very likely may never be higher, or they could extend Ryan, signifying him as a building block for future Twins teams. So far this season through 17 starts (18 games) Ryan has pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 104.1 innings with good peripherals, which accumulates to a 3.9 bWAR. These are frontline-esque pitching stats, and although Joe Ryan was snubbed from the AL All-Star team, the league is certainly taking notice of his performance. Ryan has been a very good pitcher since his debut in 2021, but he seems to have taken the next step in 2025. Joe Ryan is under control through the 2027 season, so nothing needs to be urgent, but I think it would be wise for the Twins to extend him as soon as possible.

Joe Ryan is currently pitching in his age-29 season and has 2 years of arbitration control following the current campaign. He is making $3 million this season in his first trip through arbitration and has roughly $5.5 million in MLB career earnings thus far. At this point in the season it is difficult to predict arbitration numbers for the offseason, but typically if salaries start low, they stay fairly low in comparison to others. With that being said, for this exercise we will predict Ryan would make $6 million in 2026 arbitration and $10 million in 2027 arbitration.

Potential extension

A potential extension for Ryan could be something along the lines of 5 years, $95 million. This would give him a raise in his final two arbitration seasons, and buy out 3 free agent years. This proposed deal would have Ryan pitch his age 30-34 seasons with Minnesota before possibly re-entering the market going into his age-35 campaign, where there could still be some strong earning potential. The proposed extension would take the following structure:

This proposed deal would give the Twins 3 more years of club control and guarantee Joe Ryan approximately $79 million more dollars (accounting for expected arb-year increases). Obviously, this all depends on if Ryan is comfortable in Minneapolis and would want to accept this life-changing money now, or bet on his breakout and possibly earn more money down the road. That also goes to say who knows if the Twins front office would be able to offer a deal of this size right now, given ownership concerns. I personally have no good connections to any MLB front offices, and this is completely from a fan standpoint, but I think this could be a solid framework to begin negotiations of a possible extension. It also should be stated that extensions such as this one more often happen during the offseason, so that is something to keep in mind.

This deal also gives the Twins more stability for their rotation in the future, as the top 3 of Lopez, Ryan and Ober are all on pace to become free agents after the 2027 season. It is highly unlikely they will be able to retain all 3 guys, but getting one locked up now may increase the chance they can extend Lopez or Ober in the future if they choose. An extension would give the Twins the following rotation outlook for seasons to come.

This gives the Twins a frontline guy they can build and develop young arms around. As they say, an ace helps prevent losing streaks, and Ryan is well on his way to becoming one. The deal gives Ryan a very nice payday and great financial security, but gives the Twins upside in that if he keeps performing at this level, this deal could become somewhat of a bargain the way that the price of pitching keeps increasing.

As I mentioned before, this is purely for fun, and there is no real steam behind this (at least that I know of.) As a diehard Twins fan, I would love to see Ryan stick around for many more years to come, and would have to think really hard about my fandom if they traded him at the deadline for anything short of a crazy prospect like Roman Anthony and change. Hopefully you enjoyed the article, let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!