TopGunn#22

In an earlier article that also brought up the "possibility" of trading Lewis, I had mentioned (as MikeLink45 did at the outset here) that trading Lewis when his value is at it's lowest ever---much like Byron Buxton), is not wise. I still feel that way. I think the Twins, in Arraez have a GREAT trade chip for a team like Oakland. Oakland has something I very much want: Frankie Montas. Given how certain teams like the Dodgers and Yankees ALSO have SP'ing concerns it's going to make getting SP'ing on the trade market more difficult if those teams decide to "compete" for SP's. Face it, the Twins need GOOD SP's. In fact, we're desperate. If I HAD to, I'd deal Arraez AND Lewis for Montas and Bassitt, and I'd throw in Donaldson to get Chapman. Maybe I toss an arm like Winder or Canterino in as well. THAT's the only kind of scenario I give up Lewis for. A true blockbuster to set the Twins up for 2022 and beyond. If I'm giving the A's an infielder who could be a future batting champ AND a former #1 overall pick who still has tremendous potential I'm swapping the 3B-man as well. If the A's are truly considering a major rebuild, they take on Donaldson's contract for the short term and have the Twins take on Chapman's for the longer term. They give up two GOOD SP's to get a solid bat with versatility (Arraez) and as I said, a former #1 overall pick who is just 22 years old and still has tremendous potential. But otherwise, I'm very much likely to keep Lewis than to trade him.

Tony-O was my first favorite Twin and is still my first ! I think I'll be traveling to Cooperstown, NY for the July 22 induction. MikeLink, I don't include Morris in my top Twins arms because even though it was the "MOST MEMORABLE" season, I put Jim Jerry in there instead. 1969 20-game winner, 1970 A.L. Cy Young winner and several other "solid" Twins seasons. Morris belongs in a "special" category of Twins one-season wonders (and he would be far and away #1 in that category).

They need to prioritize what is #1, #2, #3 and #4. Is #1 signing a front of the rotation SP like Rodon ? Rolling the dice on his tremendous upside while gambling his health doesn't betray him and the Twins ? Or is it filling the gaping hole at SS ? Number 2 will be determined by what #1 is. Do they use the money they have to spend on a SS like Story ?? Do they make a blockbuster trade with Oakland to acquire Montas and possibly another SP ? Number 3 is signing Big Mike to fill a hole in the rotation. And number 4 is a trade with the Royals or Cardinals for Mondesi or DeJong if signing Story isn't a priority or an attempted signing falls through. There are a LOT of things the twins FO needs to do and do quickly once the lockout ends. How they prioritize them and how aggressively they go after their priorities will be telling. They need to plan for several contingencies depending on what they CAN and CAN'T do and on how the FA and trade market develops.

I will say again, that Ryan and Ober need to be considered ONE pitcher in a starting rotation. I could see each of them pitching 100-110 innings. That's 200-220 innings. They need a COUPLE of arms. I would: Think very hard during this break what my #1 priority is NOW (now that Buxton is signed). Is it a SS like Story or a SP like Rodon. That's the BIG DECISION. I might sign Pineda first (and quickly) because ONE SP won't be enough. Big Mike is a known commodity. He will pitch to an acceptable level. Spend at least one stint on the I.L. but for the most part be "steady." If I sign Rodon, I make a trade with Oakland for Frankie Montas. It would be something along the lines of Arraez, Sabato and Sands. Then my SP is: Rodon, Montas, Bundy, Pineda, Ryan, Ober. That's 6 guys and I can lean on minor league depth for spot starts and such. I also would make a smaller trade for Mondesi or DeJong to get a SS. Both should be available because there are players who have moved past them. If I decide to go with Story instead I expand the trade with Oakland by including Larnach and maybe another smaller sweetener to include Bassitt. Then the SP staff looks like this: Montas, Bassitt, Bundy, Pineda, Ryan and Ober. I have Donaldson, Story, Polanco and Kiriloff in the IF. Garver & Jeffers catching and Buxton & Kepler in the OF. I need a LF'er. Miranda, Celestino & Martin could compete for it. I could sign a vet at a bargain price instead. That team can compete with the White Sox, Tigers and anybody else. I still have PLENTY of young minor league pitchers to evaluate and elevate as needed throughout the season and I still have Lewis, Martin and other highly thought of prospects to evaluate and elevate as needed during the season if their play in the minors dictates that and/or injuries force my hand. I will keep pounding the drum on this: We were the two-time defending division champs. We had a dumpster fire last season but we still have TALENT. We CAN and SHOULD compete for the division crown in 2022 and beyond.

Nope. I agree with prouster. Baines doesn't deserve it either but if I had to choose between the two of them, I'd take Dick Allen !!!!

They have the money to sign Story now that they dithered on FA pitchers, but as has been written, signing Story is unlikely. I'm in the "NO" camp for Simmons. I'd rather trade for Mondesi or DeJong or someone similar and see how Palacios as well as Lewis and Martin develop. But going to the "Simmons" well is not an option for me. Let the Yankees give him $15 (just because they can) !!

A lot of times, veteran catchers on the down side of their career (thinking the Jason Castro types) who are "competent" but not "good" sort of hang around until spring training begins or so, and then they latch onto a team once said team identifies a need not yet addressed. Teams ALWAYS need catchers. This is why I really wanted the Twins to use the leverage they had with Jeffers in a trade for a SP. Jeffers has his flaws, but his value is rated such that he really projects as a "catcher of the "Now" and "future" for a catching needy ballclub. The hope of trading Jeffers to Miami for a Max Meyer evaporated when the Marlins acquired Stallings from the Pirates. However, the Brewers could use a catcher. So could the Yankees. Jeffers carries a value of 19.2. Luis Severino carries an 11.4. Maybe a trade of Jeffers for Severino and Zach Britton where the Yanks pick up some of the salary would work. Someone, not long ago wrote an article about how the Twins could make trades taking on some other team's bad contracts (guys like Myers and Hosmer from the Padres). It was an interesting idea now that the Twins are left with a pile of money to spend a few worthy FA's to spend it on. Severino would be an interesting Top of the Rotation guy and Britton could be a potential closer. I think both still have excellent upside and could be key pieces in 2022. Then I sign a Jason Castro type LH hitting catcher while Rortvedt develops at AAA.

You just can't trade this kid at this time. His primary position is one the Twins need to fill. He's versatile enough to play other places should he need to. He was the #1 overall pick and all reports are that he's a high character person. His value has never been lower. This is a lot like Buxton in that Byron's value was probably never lower prior to his extension. Lewis may never pan out. But he's an asset the Twins simply must stick with because the "upside" (like Buxton) is just too great. There are other assets the Twins can trade to rebuild their pitching staff, which is something they simply MUST do, not just for 2022 but beyond.

Very Nice Andrew. I think I "get' the criteria you're using. I'm one of those old, traditional guys who just looks at the baseball card stats and determines, more by "feel" or "the eye test" what was the "best year." Or all time team. Determining it by WAR based on bang for your buck by salary makes it pretty cut and dried, so it's not something anyone can really effectively disagree with any of your selections. For example: I could maintain Killebrew in 1969 should be the 3B. Heck he won the MVP !! But Harmon was making $100,000+ that year. Koskie was probably making close to the league minimum, Or how about Nellie Cruz in 2019 for DH ?? But as awesome as his season was he was making $14-$15 million. His value to WAR just isn't competitive at $14-$15 million. This is an interesting way to evaluate. Thanks for doing the "work" and providing it.

Doc, I totally agree Kaat should also go in as a broadcaster some day. I'll tell you, Oliva was just a treat to watch hit. He was all coiled up and when his swing uncoiled it was smooth and "wicked !!" As a kid, I used to scour the box scores in my local paper each night just to see how many hits Tony-O got. I would read the ENTIRE box score. But the FIRST place my eyes would go was to: AB Runs Hits RBI Oliva RF 4 2 3 3 And then I would scan for extra base hits: Oliva 2B-2 (36) HR-1 (22) Ahhhh, the memories. Trov, great point ! I remember many years ago, looking at Oliva's stats on the back of a 1972 baseball card. It had stats that went thru his 1971 third and final batting title. His career average was .313 and in the pitching dominated era he played in, that's pretty. darn. good. Clemente, Rose, Carew, there were only a handful of guys who were better. That HAROLD BLEEPING BAINES got in before Tony-O is criminal. That Kaat won 283 games and 16...SIXTEEN Gold Gloves and had to wait this long is frustrating. But all the frustration and angst over the injustice of them not being elected while others (not as deserving in my opinion, WERE) is gone. washed away like a warm summer rain. I believe my wife and i will be driving to Cooperstown N.Y. from Rochester this coming July. Maybe I'll see Tony-O and he'll sign a picture for me that says H.O.F. 2022. What a great feeling for long time Twins Fans.

Fantastic Topic Doc Munson ! I've been considering this as well, just not in the more insightful topic you've introduced "The Salary Floor" sure to come from the new CBA. My whole approach to this Twins offseason has been to scheme ways in which they are competitive right out of the gate for 2022. In the A.L. Central, and just one year removed from having won back-to-back division titles, I don't think the FO should consider anything LESS than competing in 2022. One of the prime ways to do that is to take on bad contracts. Doing this adds players who have talent. They just don't perform to what their "cost" is. It's kind of like Kirk Cousins. He's played very well this year. Yesterday he converted a late turnover into what should have been the game winning TD drive, only to see Zimmer's defense give up the game losing points in the end (for the FOURTH time this season). Kirk is not a $40 million player, but in today's sports world this is the norm. Guys like Myers (LF) and Hosmer (1B) would fill big holes for the Twins both in the field and in the lineup but would also allow us to add a young player or two of tremendous talent/potential by taking on those contracts (Abrams, Gore, Weathers). It's the dirtiest way but also the quickest way to rebuild the talent. You could swap an Arraez or a Lewis or Martin to maximize the haul, or swap out lesser pieces but you have to be willing to take on the salary for the period of time before their contracts expire. I'm not sure how much time Myers and Hosmer have left and what the per season cost is (about $20 for each I'd imagine, Hosmer a little more, Myers a little less) but that's the price of poker. It's an interesting scenario that is waaay outside what Twins ownership has ever considered. But it SHOULD be a consideration.

Great point Doc Munson. Puk is one of those "buy low" get great production type of gambles the Twins should be actively pursuing. Ideally, Puk would be in the starting rotation. But he could also be a key BP piece as well. Maybe a change of scenery is just what he needs. I've considered players like Clint Frazier (already snapped up by the Cubs) and Miguel Andujar and other similar players as buy low/high upside signings. Andujar would give the Twins a "potentially" solid RH bat who could play a little 3B, 1B and LF. Admittedly, that conflicts with what Miranda could do. But if Andujar ever got back to hitting like his rookie year it would be a great acquisition. Maybe the league has figured him out. Maybe it's just been the nagging injuries. But guys like him and Puk and really been hampered by those nagging injuries. Maybe good health unlocks the tremendous potential each have.

I have never been to Cooperstown, but have always wanted to go. My wife has heard me say dozens of times with hope in my voice "If Tony-O ever gets elected, we have to make the drive from Minnesota to Cooperstown, N.Y. and be there for the ceremony." Well, we will probably be making the trip this July. This is so wonderful for Tony-O AND Jim Kaat to be going in together. I'm also happy for Buck O'Neill (a better ambassador for baseball there has never been, although Tony-O and Kaat are his equal) and I'm happy for Gil Hodges and his family. Tony-O was my FIRST ever favorite player in any sport. I was 6 years old when he won Rookie of the Year and 7 when the Twins played the Dodgers in the World Series. It was when I became a lifelong baseball fan and always will be. Those are magical years for a kid, and there will always be a special "magic" for Tony Oliva with me.

So is this "Sosa" the Cardinal SS NOT the Sosa who basically beat out Paul DeJong at SS ?? Or is it a different Sosa entirely ?? Speaking of DeJong, shortstops like him and Adelberto Mondesi can be acquired via trade very inexpensively. I'd "consider" a Rule 5 guy. But I'd rather give up a little somethin' for a Mondesi or DeJong.

I decided to check "headlines" on ESPN before I hit the sack last night. Saw the headline "O'Neill, Minoso, Hodges "among others" elected to Hall. And I thought, "Good for Buck O'Neill, there has never been a better ambassador of Baseball than him !" And I was happy for Hodges being a Brooklyn Dodger fan from reading about them in my youth. And as I read the article, BAM !!! There it was. "Twins teammates Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat, both 83, and the only living former players were also selected." And I was just stunned for a moment. I had to re-read and re-read again just to make sure. After the Vikings stunning loss (yet again) what a treat to finish the day. I have never been to Cooperstown but have always planned on going sometime. Probably after I retire. In fact, I've told my wife that if Tony-O (my FIRST favorite player and my ALWAYS favorite player) ever got in we would have to make the trip to celebrate him. Going in with Jim Kaat is just icing on the cake. I never thought I'd see the day Tony-O was finally honored. WOW !!! I may be in Cooperstown come July of 2022.

You might be right about them wanting to run a kid out at SS "In My La Z Boy" but I think Story and Donaldson while similar, are also much different. Both are good RH hitters. Guys you generally can count on to produce. Story plays a much more premium position (SS) than Donaldson (3B) and he plays it at an elite level. Story is a darn good SS. Plus, Donaldson has had injury concerns for virtually his entire career. Story does not. So there are similarities, but also differences. And Dr. Gast, I agree that Lewis and Martin could become super-utility types and that's what I would see from them when they first come up. But I don't think the Twins would limit them to that. Martin could very well develop into a heck of a LF'er who could play some CF to spell Buxton. Lewis could still turn into a pretty good SS while also becoming valuable as a guy who could play all around the field. Remember, Chris Taylor has played a lot of SS for the Dodgers when Seager had been hurt. Story may eventually move to 3B and Lewis become the SS after 3-4 years. The Twins may draft a kid who is a tremendous SS prospect as well. it's hard to project 3-5 years down the road. But what I'm trying to do is put the Twins in a competitive position for 2022 as well as beyond that with a Story signing and the blockbuster trade with Oakland for BOTH Montas and Bassitt. And the Twins have the assets to remake and even out their roster if they have the guts to do it.

I agree Cody. The Twins DO have money to spend. They've signed Buxton to a reasonable contract that protects both him and the team. They've done nothing to replace Berrios and the money he would/should have been making. So in my opinion, it comes down to this: Do the Twins spend on starting pitcher Carlos Rodon and assume all the risk and reward that would come from such a commitment ?? Or do they take that money and invest in Trevor Story ?? If it was up to ME, I'd sign Story and make a blockbuster trade using Arraez and Larnach to bring Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt over from Oakland. Things have come to a screeching halt with the expiration of the CBA but that's what I'd be working on. Sign Story for 5 years and $125 million. Trade Arraez, Larnach, Sabato, Cole Sands and Thorpe to the A's for Montas and Bassitt. It's a lot to give up and the Twins could lose Bassitt after the 2022 season, but they need an arm like Montas to replace Berrios at the top of our rotation and who will be under team control for a couple years. The Twins also need a quality arm like Bassitt to bridge the gap from opening day 2022 to whenever arms like Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, Winder and Woods-Richardson are ready. The ability to add an arm or two via free agency has passed in my opinion. And a pitching staff of Bundy, Ryan and Ober just isn't enough. The above proposed trade is worthy, as judged by Baseball Trade Values, but I'd even go a little higher and swap some players out and swap in a Canterino, Winder or Duran if I had to. They are all great prospects, but the Twins need a starting rotation NOW for 2022. And there would be nothing preventing the Twins from working on extensions for Montas and Bassitt as soon as we acquired them. For the short term, Montas and Bassitt are affordable. But with all the young talent coming, even if minimum salaries go UP in the new CBA the Twins could have an affordable pitching staff with guys like Montas, Bassitt, Bundy, Ryan, Ober, and possibly Pineda if he's also brought back on a reasonable deal with guys like Balazovic, Dobnak, Woods-Richardson, Duran, Canterino, Winder and eventually Petty possibly being in the mix in mid-2022 and further down the road. Story gives the Twins an All Star caliber SS to pair up the middle with Polanco and Buxton. In this scenario the Twins still have Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt behind the plate. That's a strong up the middle defensive core and Story's bat in the middle of the lineup doesn't hurt one bit. The best FA pitching options are gone. It's time to invest that money in a long term SS like Story and build the rotation through some bold trades. Would 5-years $125 million get it done ? I don't know. But I'd sure as heck find out.

The allure of Rodon is obviously TALENT. But since the Twins would never dream of actually PAYING to get a Star Quality SP then the other side of the coin (Health) could work in the Twins favor. Boras is tough to deal with, but maybe a 2-year $40 million dollar contract gets it done. The Twins aren't on the hook for a long term contract but there is the potential for elite production. Remember, Rodon was the first half of the season Cy Young. He was nothing short of awesome. I offer that contract and see what Boras does. Then, instead of trading for Bassitt I trade Arraez, Cole Sands, Sabato and Thorpe for Frankie Montas. Then I sign Big Mike. Rotation in 2022: Rodon, Montas, Pineda, Bundy, Ryan, Ober. Dobnak and Balazovic are in the minors providing depth. (as are several others). Maybe I bring back Gant as well. Now I have two potential All Stars heading my rotation with young pitchers pushing for their chance by mid season. My lineup is still relatively intact. By signing Rodon, I have to give up on the Trevor Story dream, so I work a deal with K.C. for Mondesi or the Cards for Paul DeJong. Neither should cost an arm and a leg, but both K.C. and the Cards have other guys who are ahead of Mondesi and DeJong. KC has Lopez and Bobby Witt Jr. and the Cards have Sosa. Mondesi has great potential but is very injury prone. DeJong has his flaws but he's a solid glove who hits with power. These are deals the Twins FO could certainly make. As Nash has eloquently stated...you don't lock Buxton up long term to waste even one year of that on "rebuilding." Now that this FO has committed to Buxton, the idea is to maximize what we can accomplish while he's in his PRIME. To do anything else just wouldn't make any sense. The Twins FO has made a bold FIRST STEP. Can they follow through and make the additional moves necessary to make the FIRST step pay off.

You're projecting 3 FULL seasons from now. I expect there to be greater roster turnover by then. Yes, Buxton will be in CF and Polanco will probably be at 2B but too many of our current players are in your 2025 projection. I'm not down on Larnach. Far from it. I just see Larnach being dealt for SP'ing. I see Rortvedt as the starting catcher. And maybe Trevor Story as our SS. We have no idea who the Twins would have drafted and who would have matriculated up to the Big leagues quickly. Maybe we sign an international player who explodes in the minors and is the next Juan Soto ?? I like the overall topic, but looking three FULL seasons ahead you need a crystal ball, and none of us have that.

Jamie, GREAT article ! You're identifying great options and providing great "grist" for discussion. And again, I find myself wondering if tony&rodney is some long lost brother I never knew. And I agree with Ron Coomer who also opined "why not TWO of Oakland's pitchers. I will mention yet again, that Ryan and Ober SHOULD be considered as ONE SP. Innings limits puts the Twins hoping they can get 100-110 innings out of each for a total of 200-220. In "the old days" we would refer to that as ONE pitcher. tony&rodney nailed it. Make a blockbuster for Montas AND Bassitt. Arraez is a talent, but we have Polanco firmly entrenched at his primary position and Miranda on the way to replace him in his role. I like Larnach as a prospect and he could develop to be a VERY GOOD major league hitter. But I'm willing to give up Larnach to improve our pitching. I depart from Kipp35's thinking. He makes good points and backs them up with sound reasoning. But I see it differently. I make the blockbuster trade tony&rodney suggests for Montas & Bassitt in a heartbeat! In fact, I also think I'd up the ante a little more with Oakland if I had to as well to close that deal. (your suggestions to up that ante are very reasonable tony&rodney). Starting Rotation: Montas, Bassitt, Bundy, Miami SP, Ryan/Ober. (with young pitchers percolating in the minors) Lineup: Largely Intact and bolstered with an All Star Caliber SS. Garver catching, Kiriloff, Polanco, Story, Donaldson around the infield. Buxton flanked by Kepler and ? in the OF and Sano the primary DH. And a Bullpen that could use a closer but that has good potential. Despite what the White Sox and Tigers have already done (and may still yet do) this is a Twins team that could compete. And we have more talent in the minors on the way. All at a $120 million budget as tony&rodney laid out. It's clear the BEST SP's on the FA market are gone. Rodon is too big a risk. But THIS PLAN retools the Twins to compete in 2022 and beyond with enough talent added thru trades and investing the money that could have gone to FA pitchers in an All Star caliber SS. Brilliant !!

With the inability of the Twins to add SP'ing of any significance in the FA market it is probably time to sign a SS. The best option to me is Trevor Story. Correa ain't coming here (he's probably heading back to Houston) and the others are just filler. Villar is a good offensive player, but I'd want a better glove at SS. Simmons...been there, done that. Galvis. Iglesias ? O.K. if you'd already added Eduardo Rodriguez and Jon Gray/Michael Pineda to your pitching staff. But if I'm the Twins and I have money to spend (which they most certainly do) I'd rather spend my money on Trevor Story than a risky Carlos Rodon. Once I've signed Story, I can focus on where I want Lewis and Martin to eventually play, cause it ain't gonna be SS. Story would also look pretty good hitting #3, #4, #5 in the twins lineup. Story & Polanco up the middle with Buxton in CF is a pretty strong defensive/offensive core. Another reason the Twins should sign Story: They have young pitching percolating in the minors and very close to coming up. Trade for Bassitt/Manaea type SP's to bridge to when the young pitching arrives. Or make a BIG deal for Montas.

Yeah, for a team that entered the off season with signing Buxton as their #1 priority (yes, it's done, glad about that but it took waaaay too long) and rebuilding the pitching staff as a clear #2 (with a SS also needed) the Twins FO approach of "slow and steady as she goes" is just maddening. Rodriguez was the move I wanted with a couple SP's acquired via trade and one guy, like Bundy, for a low risk/high reward type of signing (although THAT guy for me was Andrew Heaney). Rodon is head and shoulders above anybody else left, but there is a HUGE injury risk for him. The $18 million annually SEEMS about right, but ohhhh, that shoulder scares me. Especially with the White Sox not being all over bringing him back. What do the White Sox KNOW ??

The Twins certainly DO have some assets to deal. And they have value. The issue with the Twins is that they have a glut of talent clustered around less important positions (but positions that MAY be important to certain teams). I put Arraez at the top (33.30 He has a higher trade value than Jeffers 19.2 or Garver 10.9 on Baseball Trade Values. I would have put Jeffers second but that was primarily for Miami who now have their catcher of the future. So that puts Kepler 23.6 and Larnach 18.9 next. Polanco has the highest value at 45.6 but I'm not trading him. There are good SP's to be had in the trade market with varying lengths of team control. Unfortunately, all our glorious speculation will come to a halt until the "Business" end of baseball is taken care of.

Larnach still has pretty good value at this point. If I added him to the trade I laid out out I'd be able to add Chris Bassitt to the Montas deal. That would give the Twins two solid arms at the top of their rotation in Montas & Bassitt, with Bundy, Ryan and Ober. Would still need one more SP (can't count on Dobnak at this point). So I would still look to Miami or the Brewers.

Arraez is our BEST trade chip this off season. I'm trading him for pitching. I think Dr. Gast and i have advocated for a trade with Oakland: A's get: Arraez 33.3 Sabato 3.0 Cole sands 3.3 = 39.60 Twins get: FRAKIE MONTAS 39.6 !!! If I had to, I'd throw a little somethin' extra Oakland's way to clinch the deal. Montas, Bundy, Ryan, Ober. I count Ryan and Ober as ONE SP due to innings limits. Go out and make a deal with Miami for Max Meyer or Jesus Luzardo. Our staff would be frustratingly inconsistent, but with Balazovic and others coming at least they'd be BUILDING a starting rotation. And Miranda moves right into Arraez's spot on the roster.