cHawk

I was unfortunately unable to catch this game live but I kept track of the score on the MLB app. For starters, Pablo Lopez looked great. I’m not going make any declarations after one game (trust me, I know better than that) but I think he’ll be a solid component of our rotation this year. My only critique is not directed at Lopez but rather Baldelli. Lopez was dealing and had thrown only 85 pitches. Why yank him in that situation? I love the potential this pitching staff has but it will struggle if the starting pitchers cannot consistently pitch six innings. On the other hand, the offense scored 2 runs on 9 hits. That is a trend that has been constant throughout the Baldelli-era, and it annoys me to hell and back. If this team is to score more than 3 runs per game in the postseason, they must improve in this regard. Will this team get better or worse as the season plays out? We all hope the former.

It should surprise nobody that Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy remain unsigned. The decision by Falvine to rely on those two was bound to go wrong. Sanchez may have been below average as a hitter, but he could at least hit the ball hard and actually draw walks. Baseball Savant doesn’t have all the same percentile rankings for Sano, but I can confidently state that, throughout 2022, his lineup spot looked something like this:

I know the Twins traded Arraez but who is the second player you’re referring to?

After consecutive seasons of anticipation and ultimate disappointment, Twins fans find themselves in a position of uncertainty. What direction does S.S. Falvine appear to be heading? What changes await in this direction? Will the vessel come upon a World Series title in its journey? Or will it forever circulate the triangle of mediocrity? These questions haunted Twins fans throughout the land in the early winter. Uncertainty surrounding the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa raised late autumn trepidation in Twins territory. Exhibited inactivity from Captain Falvey and Captain Levine in the season of advent sparked further discontent and disarray. This pattern of sightings was not unfamiliar to Twins fans, who had witnessed their fair share of underwhelming "impact pitchers," including JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Matt Shoemaker. Fans slowly rose in arms, and the addition of outfielder Joey Gallo hardly appeased the crowd. In mid-December, all hope appeared lost, as Minnesota's prized shortstop had signed a gargantuan contract with the San Francisco Giants. However, through a remarkable series of unlikely events, Minnesota reclaimed their shortstop, signing him to a long-term contract. Not long after, they acquired starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins to significantly improve their starting rotation. Unfortunately, Lopez wasn't without cost. The Twins were forced to part with Reigning American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez. Minnesota will not only place their faith on the addition of Pablo Lopez, but also on improved health, to improve their starting rotation in 2023. While the addition of Lopez is significant, the Twins will also receive the services of Kenta Maeda in 2023, who had missed eighteen months due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Tyler Mahle, who missed the final month of the 2022 season with shoulder injury. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda appears promising. While the starting rotation appears improved, question marks fly high around the starting lineup, which will be without the reigning American League batting champion. They will look to sluggers Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to maintain good health and also to prospects such as Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and others who will see the field again after missing time due to injury. The season ahead is a pivotal one for both Falvine and manager Rocco Baldelli. The ship has drifted more and more into the incorrect direction over the past two years. If it continues to drift in that direction, Twins fans must seriously question the competence of those managing their team. Can officers Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli pilot the ship out of the triangle of mediocrity? Or is it their fate to never leave? We will know the answer in November 2023. cHawk's ("Optimistic Homer") Predictions for 2023: vs. White Sox: 7-6 vs. Guardians: 7-6 vs. Tigers: 8-5 vs. Royals: 8-5 vs. Orioles: 5-1 vs. Red Sox: 3-4 vs. Rays: 4-2 vs. Blue Jays: 2-4 vs. Yankees: 1-6 vs. Astros: 1-5 vs. Angels: 4-2 vs. Athletics: 5-1 vs. Mariners: 3-4 vs. Rangers: 5-2 vs. Braves: 2-1 vs. Marlins: 2-1 vs. Mets: 1-2 vs. Phillies: 2-1 vs. Nationals: 3-0 vs. Reds: 3-0 vs. Cubs: 2-1 vs. Brewers: 2-2 vs. Pirates: 2-1 vs. Cardinals: 1-2 vs. Diamondbacks: 2-1 vs. Rockies: 3-0 vs. Dodgers: 0-3 vs. Padres: 1-2 vs. Giants: 2-1 Total: 91-71, 1st place in the American League Central Division

Scotch Whiskey?

Additionally, the Jets signed Allen Lazard. Maybe they’ll get Randall Cobb too. Between those two and Garrett Wilson, who do you suppose will get the fewest targets? Knowing Rodgers, the answer will probably be Wilson, the best receiver of the three by far.

I can’t speak as to whether or not the Jets will be better with Rodgers. He’s obviously a better player than Zach Wilson, but…

I hope the plan is to tank for a Top 5 pick

Wow. I’m shocked at how little Miami had to give up.

Byron Buxton Home Run Total - 27.5 Couldn't agree more with Ted that Buxton's availability throughout the season will determine whether or not he eclipses this mark. As stated in the article, Buxton (barely) surpassed 27.5 long balls in only 92 games in 2022. Logic would indicate that he should accomplish this again, provided he plays at least the same number of games; however, this is no certainty. Through the span of his 8-year career, he has played in approximately 49% of his team's games. Over the course of a 162 game season, that's approximately 79 games. There's no obvious trend in the graph above, so it's most reasonable to take and predict the average (49%, i.e. 79 games in 2023). cHawk's pick: Under Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280 Through the course of his career, Correa has a career .279 batting average. He has only eclipsed the .280 mark twice in 8 years. Based on these statistics, concur with Ted; it's clearly more logical to predict that he will not clear the mark of .280. cHawk's pick: Under Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5 In Ryan's 27 starts last season, he successfully completed five innings in 19 of them (70% of the time). In the previously described instances, he amassed 13 wins; in summary, he recorded a win in 48% of his starts. This appears to be his floor in 2023. So long as Ryan amasses a minimum of approximately 25 starts, he will eclipse the mark. cHawk's pick: Over Pablo Lopez Wins - 10.5 Lopez, unlike Ryan, has never amassed 11 wins in a season. In 2022, he successfully completed five innings in 25 of his 32 starts. It may surprise some that in those 25 starts, he totaled 10 non-decisions alongside 10 wins; i.e. he had a non-decision in 31% of his starts. This could very possibly be a product of Miami's less-than-stellar lineup, which totaled the sixth lowest wRC+ of any team in the league. The lineup which Lopez will be equipped with in 2023 should be much better than that Marlin's lineup, therefore Lopez's win total should increase from 2022, where he amassed 10 wins. cHawk's pick: Over

I don't want to go 3-14...

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Buxton's absence will be a bigger ailment on the team than any other injuries listed in the article, as I didn't notice any mention of Carlos Correa, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, or Jhoan Duran. Taylor is a backup. Oftentimes backups do not easily fill in the shoes of starters. His offensive ceiling is approximately the height of the IDS Center shorter than that of Buxton.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/twins-to-sign-donovan-solano.html

A realistic expectation for Dobnak would be that he is able to get 3-6 outs in a 7-run game. If Falvine rely on him for anything beyond that, they are asking for trouble. He was a good pitcher for about two months back in the Summer of 2020. That stretch was clearly the exception, not the rule. Any positive impact Dobnak makes for the Twins this year should be looked at as a bonus, not as a foundation for the team's success.

Hell no.

I am sure Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, and Jalen Hurts are all better than Cousins. That's only eight, but close enough.

Yuk.

How come? If we were playing Houston I would agree with you but the Yankees’ pitching staff was nothing special in 2019. Scoring 2.3 runs/game against that pitching staff wasn’t something any of us expected.

I can’t imagine the Arizona job being that attractive.

I can confidently state that I’m pleased with our starting five, specifically that we won’t be relying on the likes of Bundy, Archer, Happ, and Shoemaker. That said, if injuries cut through our rotation like a hot knife through butter (again) it won’t look the slightest bit better. Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Balazovic have zero major league experience. If three of five spots in our rotation are occupied by those three at any point we will NOT be in good shape, I guarantee you. As far as how our rotation stacks up against the rest of the central, Cleveland is far superior in this regard. They’re more top heavy and their depth is better. Unless injuries cut through their rotation like a hot knife through butter, we won’t see a large portion of their AAA pitchers. As for the White Sox, Giolito was below average last year. He’s a question mark. Only two of their pitchers in which you listed (Lynn and Cease) were above average last year. I’ll take our rotation over that of Detroit and KC. We should be in good shape for 2023. It would, of course, be nice if we had a bonafide ace.

Concur with Cory Engelhardt. Given the increased rotation depth, I imagine that the rotation will get a heavier load this year. Will they add an arm before opening day? Maybe. Will it be of much significance? I imagine not.

Declining RP on the wrong side of 30? Hmm, that sounds somewhat familiar. I’ll pass.

Let’s hope the depth we’ve built will be enough. Injuries went through our roster like a hot knife through butter last year.

I could see it happening. They won't be sacking Jalen Hurts five times, and their offense definitely won't have an easier time against the Eagles' defense than they did against the Bengals' defense.