Brett

There's a lot of discussion around Willi Castro and whether the Twins will pay up an estimated $6.2M via arbitration to keep him around next year. People are coming down on both sides, and really anyone could be right. I see 3 scenarios where the Castro decision shows which way the team will decide to construct next year's roster. Take a break from the Dodgers crushing the Yankees (we'll see how that statement ages), and take a walk with me... Scenario 1 - Joe Pohlad finds his wallet In this scenario, Derek Falvey gets approval to slightly improve the payroll number to north of $130M. Despite Castro's stature as a utility man, Falvey recognizes his value is greater to the Twins than a lot of teams due to his ability to play a number of positions decently and he remembers in most games to bring his bat. Maybe he's a more consistent version of Nick Punto, after all. $6M for a 3 WAR player doesn't seem so bad, and Falvey can perhaps get creative with other moves to find bullpen help, a first baseman, and a starter who's not considered a reclamation project. I'm not sure how to describe the probability of this scenario, but it seems plausible but not likely. Scenario 2 - Youth movement This time, the family believes the easiest path to selling the Twins is to pare down the team payroll (and possibly other areas). There's no way Castro stays in this scenario, and the Twins also seek to deal Lopez, Vasquez and Correa (who I hope says "no"). Even in this scenario, they probably don't deal Buxton in order to stave off a complete fan revolt. Kepler and the other free agents get the front office's best wishes and not much more, and the Twins start the year with some well-known prospects like Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and probably a couple of surprises on the roster. They would be fun to watch, but some of the more learned fans will find themselves going to more Saints games to see a more competitive team. I really hope this doesn't happen, and I'm afraid it might. Scenario 3 - Falvey's sleeve and the tricks they hold Maybe the salary range is a little higher. Or lower. But Derek Falvey does something or maybe a few somethings to create some flexibility. One of those might be offering Willi Castro a 3 year deal. No idea what that would look like...maybe $12M to lower his annual value to $4M? Maybe finding a trade partner for Vasquez for a little more relief? If they decide to roll with Jeffers and Camargo at catcher, maybe Falvey finds a left-handed starter? A power hitting first baseman? The possibilities aren't exactly endless, but I can almost guarantee he'll do something that isn't on anyone's radar. I think this scenario may be the most likely, but we're talking about like a 40/30/30 split. I always love the roster construction exercise with the uncertainty and the number of paths that we as a fanbase will describe, deconstruct, argue about, and propose alternatives. While cheering the Twins on in the World Series would be a better use of our time in October, we are where we are...reading the tea leaves and dreaming of spring training.

I’m not sure operating margin on an annual basis has as much to do as asset appreciation over the last 40 years. A $44M investment in 1984 growing to a $1.5B valuation now shows how crazy the market is for sports teams. That’s a raw 3400% increase over 4 decades without considering other investments (e.g scoreboard) the Pohlads have made along the way. I need to think about this a little more, but I’m pretty sure making sure they get x% return off of y revenue is not a major consideration for the overall purchase price of the team. And, if that’s actually true, stripping salary from the roster and accepting performance decline might actually make the team less valuable. Sorry, that’s a lot. I’ll go back to work now.

Surprised you didn’t mention Spencer Torkelson. Until I looked up his stats…what happened to him? I thought he was “can’t miss” as a prospect.

Love this column. It seems like we’re loading up on college pitchers in the middle rounds, and some of them are turning out quite well. Nice to understand the strategy rather than thinking this is just the lottery ticket perspective.

Since I have an unnatural attraction to portfolio risk, I would evaluate AK as part of the whole roster rather than individual performance. In my assessment, the Twins are already over leveraged on players with injury histories (and accompanying future injury risk). That makes me a “no” on retaining him. As a fan, I hated typing all that. I really wish the best for Alex.

This is literally the money shot here. Bill Smith and what was left of Terry Ryan ran a rather uninspiring team from 2007 to 2016, wasting the prime Joe Mauer years.

Cody, you must be too young to remember Ron Davis. It’s been 40 years, and I can still feel that stabbing pain when I heard “Ron Davis is in”. 14 blown saves does that to a guy.

Thanks for the hope, Cody. It’s in short supply right now.

I think $15M for 3.6 fWAR is an excellent return on investment. I don’t care to see him playing hurt…we’ve seen enough others do that.

I was hoping for a few more innings for Connor Prielipp. That would have been fun to see.

If memory serves, either Steamer or Zips projected this team at 84-78. Not sure if they built in a horrific start, 4 months of really good ball, and then a complete collapse or not, but on balance it seems like we’re meeting expectations overall. With that said, this all still sucks and I don’t really think any sort of offseason makes up for it.

Surprised you didn’t mention Connor Prielipp. At least he’s thrown some innings this year.🤔

I’m surprised by Helman over Keirsey. I get the positional flexibility, but thought Keirsey has a higher upside bat. Appreciate if someone can help me understand.

This seems to be more of a playoff roster type of move, but our outlook does seem pretty desperate. Maybe pairing up Festa and the Dobber to get us 6-7 innings every 5 days?

Andrelton Simmons

Somewhere in Eden Prairie, an old man is getting a little misty reading this. Thanks John. Many happy returns.

Nice write up. In summary, meh.

I spent the first month of the year thinking we were super thin in outfield depth. And then everyone started hitting and haven’t stopped (except Kepler). This is so fun to watch that I sometimes forget I have no way to watch them.

I hate that this idea makes so much sense.

It may not be the right choice, but it probably is. When Julien finds his swing again, they can swap him back in. That’s when the roster decision will be tough, and a DFA will be in play for Farmer or Margot.

I still have PTSD from 2021. Happ, Shoemaker, Simmons, year 2 of Donaldson…I need to lay down for a minute.

I’m just thankful you didn’t say his comp was Nick Punto.

This is the first noticeable reporting error since I joined the community in 2012. Any other news organization would be delighted with that record. Don’t change a thing. Me and a whole bunch of other folks on this thread have your back.

Seems like Lee is an injury replacement for Correa, Lewis, Julien, and Farmer. Love that flexibility!

We’re asking a lot of Paddack and Varland to make 30 starts each, based on their respective track records. We’ll need at least 8 starters over the course of the year, not counting the doubleheader specials. Thinking of people we can honestly see making 5-10 starts each…Festa and SWR, sure. Then who? Canterino?