There's a lot of discussion around Willi Castro and whether the Twins will pay up an estimated $6.2M via arbitration to keep him around next year. People are coming down on both sides, and really anyone could be right. I see 3 scenarios where the Castro decision shows which way the team will decide to construct next year's roster. Take a break from the Dodgers crushing the Yankees (we'll see how that statement ages), and take a walk with me...

Scenario 1 - Joe Pohlad finds his wallet

In this scenario, Derek Falvey gets approval to slightly improve the payroll number to north of $130M. Despite Castro's stature as a utility man, Falvey recognizes his value is greater to the Twins than a lot of teams due to his ability to play a number of positions decently and he remembers in most games to bring his bat. Maybe he's a more consistent version of Nick Punto, after all. $6M for a 3 WAR player doesn't seem so bad, and Falvey can perhaps get creative with other moves to find bullpen help, a first baseman, and a starter who's not considered a reclamation project. I'm not sure how to describe the probability of this scenario, but it seems plausible but not likely.

Scenario 2 - Youth movement

This time, the family believes the easiest path to selling the Twins is to pare down the team payroll (and possibly other areas). There's no way Castro stays in this scenario, and the Twins also seek to deal Lopez, Vasquez and Correa (who I hope says "no"). Even in this scenario, they probably don't deal Buxton in order to stave off a complete fan revolt. Kepler and the other free agents get the front office's best wishes and not much more, and the Twins start the year with some well-known prospects like Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and probably a couple of surprises on the roster. They would be fun to watch, but some of the more learned fans will find themselves going to more Saints games to see a more competitive team. I really hope this doesn't happen, and I'm afraid it might.

Scenario 3 - Falvey's sleeve and the tricks they hold

Maybe the salary range is a little higher. Or lower. But Derek Falvey does something or maybe a few somethings to create some flexibility. One of those might be offering Willi Castro a 3 year deal. No idea what that would look like...maybe $12M to lower his annual value to $4M? Maybe finding a trade partner for Vasquez for a little more relief? If they decide to roll with Jeffers and Camargo at catcher, maybe Falvey finds a left-handed starter? A power hitting first baseman? The possibilities aren't exactly endless, but I can almost guarantee he'll do something that isn't on anyone's radar. I think this scenario may be the most likely, but we're talking about like a 40/30/30 split.

I always love the roster construction exercise with the uncertainty and the number of paths that we as a fanbase will describe, deconstruct, argue about, and propose alternatives. While cheering the Twins on in the World Series would be a better use of our time in October, we are where we are...reading the tea leaves and dreaming of spring training.