ashbury

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday.  Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do:
Saturday - Ober
Sunday - Lopez
Tuesday - Gray
Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda
Friday Lopez
Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts? 
 

Do you remember nearly 10 years ago the "Cueto, Cuetoooo" incident in the WC game between Cincinatti and Pittsburgh. Here it is to remind you. 
 
Why is this so memorable? It's because fans were so into this game (Pirates first playoff game in 30 years) that they mentally broke a pitcher that was seen as one of the best in the NL at that time. It's one of the best crowds to ever attend a baseball game that I've ever seen. You could tell how much Pittsburgh fans had been waiting for this moment to come, and even though they couldn't get past St. Louis that year, this was always the defining moment of the 2013 playoffs (besides the Victorino grand slam). I'm not asking Twins fans to be like this. Heck, I don't think this kind of crowd trolling will ever be replicated in the modern game again. But some people just can't seem to grasp how fans can have a factor in playoff games. Not the biggest factor, but it's quite literally the bare minimum. I don't care personally if the Twins are losing 6-2, 8-0, 11-4, anything. Analytics shouldn't factor into how you cheer for this team in the playoffs. Who gives a crap about "win probability" when a team legit came back from 9 runs down just a couple of days ago. Nothing will make me more excited from my college dorm room when Pablo Lopez gets a massive strikeout in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. 
And this is verbatim what I tweeted an hour ago as of this post but: If I ever attend a playoff game at Target field, I will be loud. No matter what. I attended game 2 of the 2019 ALDS and that game was pretty hopeless. I still cared no matter what. Still cheered every strike out, every base runner. Games never over until it’s over. You should probably be loud too. And It's encouraged. Be loud and proud. Show why you bought tickets. 

1987 - Laudner to Gaetti nabs Darrell Evans at third base.  Twins were ahead 4-3 in bottom of the 6th, 1 out, runners on 2nd and 3rd.  Our team goes on to clinch the series and bring a title back to a raucous party at the Metrodome. 
Read the New York Times article about it here.
2023 - Gray to Correa leaves Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. waving for air at second base.  Twins were ahead 2-0, 2 outs in the top of the 5th, runners on 2nd and 3rd.  Now able to run off the field with their lead intact.  12 outs later, the celebration is underway at Target Field!

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

Andy MacPhail, a former Twins GM who helped construct the 87 and 91 World Series Teams once said his goal was to promote 2-3 players per season up to the majors to fill roles on the team.  A good farm system can do that.  So, with that in mind let’s review the previous drafts in the Falvey era, not to grade them but to see how Falvey. Levine and company are doing in developing 2-3 starters/ regulars (or really players who can stay on the roster all year including bench and relievers) a year. Below the starters I will include several who at least played a role of some kind and list if anyone else still has a chance to make it to the show. Let me know if I forget someone.  I am not the draft hound as others here.  
2017: was their first draft year and the players who are starters include:
 3B Royce Lewis OF/DH Brent Rooker SP Bailey Ober And that is pretty much it.  There are others who may still make it up for a role including Blaine Enlow, Mark Contreras, Calvin Faucher is with the Rays, and maybe Andrew Bechtold
This draft is a success as Ober and Lewis are a big part of the team now and moving forward.
2018: has many potential role players or players who can carve out niches but there are some who start for the Twins and others who contribute.
 C Ryan Jeffers OF Trevor Larnarch RP Cole Sands RP Josh Winder RP Kody Funderburk The jury is still out on Larnarch.  Cole Sands and Josh Winder are likely to be 7th and 8th man on relief pitching with the potential to get better.  Kody Funderburk is just getting started but is off to a nice start and looks promising.  In terms of others who may make it up at some point include DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Chris Williams, Austin Schulfer
This draft needs a little more time to be judged.  Jeffers is a starter and Larnarch should be.  If Kody Funderburk becomes a solid reliever and we get some innings 20-50 from Winder and Sands in the pen in each of the next 2 seasons I would rate this draft as solid. 
2019: we had the misfortune of drafting Keoni Cavaco in the first round which set the draft performance back quite a bit.  But it looks like we still did well in this draft.
 Matt Wallner (also drafted by the Twins in 32nd round in 2016) Spencer Steer Eduouard Julien Louie Varland Inn addition to these guys Casey Legumina who we trade to the Reds for Farmer, Sawyer Gibson-Long who we traded to Detroit for Fulmer just made his major league debut and Brent Headrick pitched over 20 innings up here this season and is on the shuttle with Josh Winder and Cole Sands as the 7th and 8th relievers Alex Isola is a solid hitting C prospect in AA and Matt Canterino is a top pitching prospect who is injured. 
I gotta say this was a great draft for them. 
2020: was a lost season and while we only drafted 5 players, we do have 3 prospects from this draft.
Alerick Soularie in AA, Kala’I Rosario in A+, and Marco Raya. 
I would rate this draft a success if one player makes it up and is a starter.  The best bet is Raya if he can stay healthy. 
2021: We traded our first 4 picks from the 2021 draft to be more competitive last year.  Petty for Sonny Gray, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar were included in the trade for Mahle, and Cade Povich was included in the trade for Lopez from Baltimore. 
Festa is in AAA and is getting close to an opportunity at some point next season.  Christina Strand is now up with Cincinnati, Povich was in AA with a high strikeout rate.  Jaylin Nolin is a top prospect and Noah Miller is already a major league ready defensive specialist if he can learn to hit at all so he can at least be a solid bench player. 
I would say there are lots of depth players in this draft outside of Encarnacion-Strand if we get a few of them to contribute this can be a good draft.
2022: is too early to grade as is 2023 but there are many prospects from the 2022 draft who did well in their first full minor league season including Brooks Lee who made it to AAA and Tanner Schobel in AA. And the Twins were voted as having one of the top three drafts in terms of talent acquired in the draft in 2023. 
Overall, the Twins have consistently done a good job of developing players for the major leagues under Falvey.  I think the surprise is that they have not drafted and developed very much pitching, but have drafted many good hitters, who they developed for the lineup or trade.  I do see many promising starting pitchers down in A and A+ ball so it will be fun to see how that translates as they pitch at more advanced levels next year and so on.  I would rate the 2017 draft, 2019 draft, with 2022 and 2023 drafts looking to join them as the most successful and the 2018 draft is on the cusp.  2020 is an incomplete as COVID torpedoed the season.  The success of the 2021 draft will be determined by players no longer in the organization.  Do you feel like the Twins in the Falvey era are succeeding in drafting and developing players to contribute at the major leagues?

The Good:
The ballpark was amazing. It had such a nice feel, the people were friendly and the cost of concessions were far less than an MLB game. I think the ballpark fit around 10,000 people and I think the attendance was around 7,000.  Most of the players were no names, but the fans definitely get behind their team. The players I did recognize were Seth Gray, Yunior Severino and obviously Brooks Lee.  One player I hadn't heard of was a young kid from the DR Yoyner Fajardo. He had 4 hits and scored 2 runs and was aggressive on the basepaths, one at bat he dug for 2 right out of the box and slid in safe with a double. He also stole 2 bases, which was quite enjoyable. He may never make it to the majors but I became a fan of his. He plays the game the way I like, always looking for the extra base. The Bad:
To say I was disappointed that Brooks Lee didn't get the start would be an understatement. He came in as a pinch hitter where he walked and then was caught stealing which really killed the little bit of momentum the team had. He ended up taking another walk in the bottom of the 10th. The 10th inning. It was ugly. A 2-2 game quickly became an 8-2 final due to 2 HBP, a walk, a fielders choice that ended with 0 outs. a sac fly, a single, a double, another walk, and yet another walk before they were finally out of the inning. The bullpen was wild and ineffective. The Wind Surge weren't able to get a run across in the bottom of the inning. What was a close guys quickly became a blow out and most fans were heading to the exit before the top of the 10th ended.  
My take:
Great place to catch a game! I will definitely be going back and hope to see some of the names in the big leagues in the future. 

The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 

On MLB regional blackouts

As is my custom, I've taken a few pictures during this visit to Fort Myers.  Well, a few hundred.  Most are crap and I don't know yet which is which, and I won't be able to sort through until I'm back from vacation, probably.  But yesterday on the back fields, during an away game for the big club, was a lot of fun because of whom they left behind.  Buxton, Correa, and Kirilloff all batted (DHed) during one of the two mixed AA-AAA games.  And there were other players to watch as well. David Festa, Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp, and Jordan Balazovic in particular.





Prielipp. I think had his stuff going this day , as he struck out the side in his first of two innings if I'm not mistaken.  He gave up a run in the second inning on a lucky bouncer that put a runner on and then a solid double to right center, but he recovered to complete the inning with at least one other strikeout that made the batter look overmatched.

This is not the most flattering image of Balazovic but here he is putting in some side work before the games.  Afterward he went over to an adjoining field to practice pickoff moves to second and first but the photos are pretty nondescript.

Finally, a Derek Falvey sighting at the center of the back fields during the games.

I spent the last three days over at Lee County Sport Complex wandering, watching, taking in my fill. While I don’t have many specifics to add, I thought I’d just do one big photo and video dump. I tried to get variety and as many different players that I could. These were all taken on my phone, and yeah, I’m not a photographer or videographer, which will become obvious. And I don’t apologize for it one iota. I tried to label what I could and what I remembered. 🙂
Field adjacent to the stadium, waiting for players to start their day.

 
Autograph hounds waiting to get players to sign all the stuff they brought with them.

 
Set up ready for warm ups.

 
The infield only field, named for TK.

 
The stadium, looking toward the infield.

 
The main stadium, looking towards the outfield.

 
Joey Gallo taking some practice at 1st base

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Kepler in the cages



 
Can’t remember who all this is.

 
Tony O is the one on the left

 
Pitchers getting ready for warm ups 

 
 

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Chris Paddack throwing



 
Position players warming up

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I think this is Eduard Julien?

 
Austin Martin @chpettit19


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Can you spot Randy Dobnak?


 
I think this is Jorge López

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Randy Dobnak

 
I think that’s Nick Gordon tagging the base, with Correa looking on

 
Jovani Moran

 
A bunch of guys coming off the field

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Miranda taking swings, with Gordon looking on


 
Don’t remember who this is and I can’t tell from this photo

There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.

On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
#9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
#12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
#15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
#16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
#17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
#22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
#65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.

Since no one has any idea what’s going to happen for the rest of the offseason (Emilio Pagán traded to the Mets and then extended for four years 36M?) I thought it would be fun to try out some player comps for 2023. I’m going to go through 30 players who are on the team and figure to, if not make the team in spring, at least figure into their plans in the first half. We’ll start with their closest age player comp from Baseball-Reference for their 2022 season just to put some sort of foundation to the comparison, then move into their worst case and best case scenario for the upcoming season. These are based on nothing except the general vibe I get from following the player’s career. The B-R comps are not available for players without enough plate appearances or innings pitched (somewhere between how much Bailey Ober pitched and how much Trevor Larnach hit).
Luis Arraez
Baseball-Reference closest sim score through age 25: Fred Tenney
If we adjust this to include players who did not play in the 1800’s, we get Jo-Jo Moore, leadoff hitter for the 1933 World Series champion Giants. I had to look that up; he means nothing to me, but his inclusion underscores the old-school charm Arraez possesses. In fact, of Arraez's ten most similar batters through age 25, only Tony Gwynn played later than 1970.
Worst case: Early career Howie Kendrick
Presumed to be a perennial batting champ early on with the Angels, Kendrick hit okay, but didn’t play close to a full season until his fifth year in the league due to injury. He never lived up to his early prospect hype until his age 35 season, when he hit .340 and gave the Nationals a full 30% boost in championship WPA.
Best case: Late career Tony Gwynn
This version of Gwynn couldn’t do much except hit at an elite rate. From age 35 until he retired at age 41, Gwynn hit .352 with passable to bad defense. As defense erodes, many players lose bat speed as well and starting guessing on pitches, leading to sharp declines in production. Not so for Gwynn, who got a little chubby and realized his value could only come from his bat. Perhaps as a thirty year old DH, Arraez's legs will stay strong and he'll see a similar spike in production to Gwynn.
 
Jorge Polanco
Age 28: Ian Desmond
This one is rough, and hopefully not a harbinger or any sort. Desmond had a good start to his career with the Nationals but the moment he lost one step he became a liability at shortstop and was never an elite hitter. He could still crush a mistake, but faded into obscurity with the Rockies as an outfielder and was out of the game at age 33.
Worst case: Marcus Giles
Giles was a do-it-all second baseman for the Braves at the tail end of their glory years in the mid-2000’s. He provided a spark in the lineup, hit for power and contact, fielded well and had good speed. Injuries piled up though, and he was out of the game at age 29. Life comes at you fast in the middle infield sometimes.
Best case: Marcus Semien
Semien provides power, speed and a good eye at the plate. He handles second base well and cashed in with a 175M contract with the Rangers. His “terrible” year in 2022 resulted in 5.9 bWAR. We’ve seen Polanco have a couple of years where he approached five WAR, but Semien is one of the more durable players in the league- Polanco seems to be trending the other way.
Kyle Farmer
Age 31: Brendan Harris
Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett begot Harris and good friend Delmon Young. Harris could kind of hit, but not well enough to leave any impression on Twins fans.
Worst case: End of career Clint Barmes. 
In his prime, Barmes could pick it at short and hit 18 home runs. Towards the end he was an average defender with a sub .300 OBP and barely a trickle of power Even if Farmer only starts for half the season, the Twins and their fans will need a better effort than that.
Best case: Didi Gregorius
In his prime, Gregorius had 25 homer power and decent enough defense at short. He never controlled the strike zone very well but he was a solid player until injuries caught up with him. If Farmer approached numbers anywhere close to that, the Twins might have a good problem on their hands when Royce Lewis and /or Brooks Lee arrive.
Royce Lewis
(I really wish he had played enough to get a comp)
Worst case: Eduardo Núñez
Núñez was a fun player who may have been negatively impacted by his status as the one of the possible heirs-apparent to Derek Jeter. He never hit in the minors, never projected as a good shortstop and didn’t find his footing until he joined the Twins in 2014. From there, he provided a little speed, a little utility, some power and a flair that made him a fan favorite in Minnesota and in Boston, where he won a championship in 2018, even providing a big three-run home run in the seventh inning of game one.
Best case: Alfonso Soriano with better defense
Soriano didn’t have quite the hype that Lewis has had, but he was involved with a strange legal dispute after his first professional experience with the Hiroshima Carp. He tried to get released but the Carp wouldn’t let him, and after some drawn out legal action and Bud Selig getting involved, his dispute resulted in the inception of the  “posting system” which saw Daisuke Matzuzaka and Yu Darvish have 50M+ transfer fees attached to their negotiations. Like Lewis, the circumstances were weird at the start, but Soriano ended up with 412 home runs and 289 steals for his career, even posting a 46 home run, 41 steal season in 2006. That would be amazing from Lewis, but Royce still theoretically has the chance to stay at shortstop and be effective there, with third base and the outfield as fallback options in which Soriano himself provided negative value, having moved off of shortstop before reaching the majors. The variance is high with this one.
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

We've reached the point in the offseason where the free agent market has dried up and - aside from Correa - there's no one left for the Twins to target.  If the Twins are looking to upgrade their roster prior to opening day, they will have to turn to the trade market. The front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made numerous trades over the past couple of years, with mixed results. Giving up an aging Nelson Cruz to acquire Joe Ryan turned out to be an instant success. On the other hand, the acquisition of Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack has been anything but. Given the amount of trades over the past five years, one of the most influential deals has flown under the radar: the 2018 Eduardo Escobar trade. 
Coming off of 2017, in which the Twins snuck into the wildcard after beating out the weak American League, the Twins looked to improve upon a young core consisting of players such as Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. After the Twins got off to a poor start, they were not able to recover and found themselves sellers at the trade deadline. After all was said and done, the Twins traded Brian Dozier, Ryan Pressley and of course, Eduardo Escobar. 
In return for Escobar, the Twins received 3 players out of high A ball: 22 yr old Ernie De La Trinidad, 19 yr old Gabriel Maciel and 20 yr old Jhoan Duran.
At the time of the trade, Escobar was slashing .274/.338/.514 with an OPS+ of 129. With his defensive flexibility, he also provided the Diamondbacks with some much needed infield depth. Despite never taking the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, Escobar was solid during his time there. 
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2018 29 ARI NL 54 223 198 30 53 11 0 8 21 1 1 18 35 .268 .327 .444 .772 102 88 5 2 0 5 2 5/H   2019 30 ARI NL 158 699 636 94 171 29 10 35 118 5 1 50 130 .269 .320 .511 .831 111 325 8 3 0 10 3 *54/HD   2020 31 ARI NL 54 222 203 22 43 7 3 4 20 1 0 15 41 .212 .270 .335 .605 63 68 5 2 0 2 4 *5/D4   2021 32 ARI NL 98 400 370 50 91 14 3 22 65 1 0 29 85 .246 .300 .478 .778 107 177 1 0 0 1 1 54/H6 Over the course of roughly four years, Escobar posted a 102 OPS+ and a WAR of 5.6
Now on to the Twins.
Ernie De La Trinidad played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached AA. Gabriel Maciel also played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached A+ ball. 
As for Jhoan Duran, he was arguably the most beneficial player for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 
Before looking at his stats, it's hard to miss his stuff. His fastball was the fastest in the MLB, averaging 100.8 MPH and topped out at 103.8. His famous "splinker" was also the fastest in the league at 96.4 MPH. On top of that, his 88 MPH curve held opposing batters to just a .120 batting average and has gotten a swing and a miss almost 50% of the time. 
As you dive into his underlying metrics, it just keeps getting better. 

His chase rates and K% are elite with 89 strikeouts over 67.2 innings pitched. Duran has also done an incredible job at throwing strikes with just 16 and a 2.1 BB/9. His chase% and whiff% are both 10% above league average. 
Duran excelled at keeping batter's exit velocity and barrel percentage low, as well as forcing a groundball more than 60 percent of the time. All of this allowed for Duran to have great home run rates, something the Twins struggled with in 2022. 
As a team, the Twins' bullpen ranked 18th in win probability added at +1.26. Duran alone had a +4.56 WPA, good for second out of all relivers this past year. While it may be hard to quantify, it's no understatement to say that Duran singlehandedly kept the bullpen afloat this past year. 
In terms of overall value, Duran had a 1.5 Fwar, which Fangraphs valued at 12 million dollars. In comparison, Eduardo Escobar posted a 4.9 Fwar during his time in Arizona. It is important to note that the Twins have Duran through at least the 2027 season and he should be a prime candidate for an extension. The Diamonbacks however, got less than four years with Escobar before trading him to the Brewers. 
While it is difficult to directly compare Escobar and Duran because of their different positions, the overall value and talent that Jhoan Duran will provide to the Twins seems likely to greatly exceed what Escobar provided to the Twins. 

Fan morale is at a low, and a part of that is the front office and their lack of spending and big moves. But when they make a move that clearly worked out for them, it is important to recognize and acknowledge it. 
Because of them, we get to watch Duran pitch for the next five years.  

As the stove continues to get hotter and hotter and the Carlos Correa decision seems to be moments away, the value of his clubhouse presence is brought up as a hedge against skill regression with age. Even if he isn't able to play at an above average level, at least they'll have him in the clubhouse. But what do we actually know about the concept of "clubhouse presence" when it comes to measurable effects? Sure, it's a fun idea to throw out to express a hypothetical value, but what does it actually mean?
Get ready for an ol' Gregg deep dive. I'm going to be looking into a few findings from the field of psychology to explore what clubhouse presence is and what there is to be gained from someone like Correa. As a caveat, this type of research is still in its infancy--no more than perhaps 20 years old. Few psychologists, even sport psychologists, dive into team processes from a social perspective. Beyond that, meaningful data on the highest performing athletes (i.e., MLB teams) is nearly impossible to measure directly, given that most researchers off the street don't have the opportunity to walk up to pro athletes and start asking them questions about mental factors.
With that out of the way, here are three findings I think might be worth digging into. References for these studies will be listed at the bottom of this blog, and links will be available to the studies if I can find publicly-available versions. If you have access to a research database through a university or something similar, you might be able to locate those behind a paywall.
Informal Roles
Teams have formal roles like first baseman, middle reliever, and leadoff hitter that are related to performing on the field, but they also have informal roles that are more about interpersonal actions. About 10 years ago, a group of scientists led by Cassandra Cope of Laurentian University performed a content analysis of Sports Illustrated articles to identify potential informal roles on a team, then they got input from about 100 athletes to narrow down the list. The list they came up with had archetypes like verbal leader, sparkplug, cancer, and comedian. Since that time, researchers have been trying to understand what meaning those labels might have.
In 2020, a study was published by a team from Wilfrid Laurier University led by Jeemin Kim that looked into outcomes of having certain players on teams. Although they did not get game data for performance, they did survey 16 college athletics teams, one of which was a baseball team. They found some interesting results, such as teams with more cancers (I won't name names as an example, but you know), distracters, and malingerers (i.e., dragging out injuries) tended to be rated as less cohesive. Teams with comedians and enforcers (i.e., dudes who will protect their teammates) being on a team was associated with more cohesion.
Most pertinent to this conversation was the interesting finding that there was an inverted-U shaped relationship between verbal leaders and satisfaction with how the team attacks its goals (winning). Too few leaders was bad, and too many was even worse. The sweet spot seemed to be around 10-15% of the team being seen as a leader. In MLB terms, that would be 2-4 players per team. Correa clearly fills that role, and this is a team that is not known for having many verbal leaders. Byron Buxton fills more of a nonverbal leadership role, leading more through example. Sonny Gray comes to mind as a verbal leader, but the list runs out quickly. There are clearly not too many verbal leaders on this team, so Correa fits nicely in this regard.
An approximation of this relationship:

Knowledge Use
This second finding came from researchers Jamal Shamsie of Michigan State and Michael Mannor of Notre Dame. In their 2013 paper, they analyzed MLB teams from 1985-2001. For these kinds of studies, there are some assumptions that need to be made, given that the researchers didn't personally survey any of the players on these teams. On the bright side, though, they can attach their findings to performance data.
In their paper, they look into tacit knowledge. Tacit knowledge is knowledge that cannot be easily taught, through things like having conversations or sitting in a class. Tacit knowledge often comes from experience and is difficult to communicate. To represent this type of knowledge, the researchers rated teams based on things like years of managing for the skipper, tenure of managers and players with their current teams, number of lineup changes, and number of games played in recent years. In total they used eight markers for tacit knowledge and all of them were associated with team winning percentage.
Carlos Correa brings one big piece of tacit knowledge studied in this paper that most of the Twins lack: playoff experience, which was positively associated with winning percentage in this study. Although it's difficult to have someone say "This is how you win in the playoffs," the mere fact that he has such an extensive history playing in October would provide the Twins with something that few remaining free agents have to the same degree that Correa does.
Faultlines
Okay, this one is really fun. It might not relate super strongly to Correa, but this is one of my favorite papers ever. Faultlines within teams refer to dormant things that can fracture a team but are only seen during conflict. Often, they can be similarities between team members that can cause some to take one side in a conflict and some to take the other side. When there are several similarities between members, the fraction can be even more dramatic and likely.
In a 2016 paper written by a team of researchers led by Katerina Bezrukova of Santa Clara, MLB teams were analyzed based on faultlines. The factors they highlighted were age, race, and nation of origin.
This example took me a while to figure out, and it's not perfect, but it should help in understanding what I'm talking about. Imagine that baseball is a team with only four players. On the left we have Team 1: Miguel Sano, Royce Lewis, Jake Cave, and Jose Miranda. On the right we have Team 2: Joe Smith, Caleb Thielbar, Gilberto Celestino, and Jhoan Duran.
Both teams have two White guys and two [Black or Latino, respectively] guys, two older guys and two younger guys, and two guys born in the USA and two guys born in [broadly the Caribbean or the DR, respectively]. However, as can be seen below, the arrangement of faultlines varies greatly (the dotted line is to represent similarity--I only have 2 dimensions).

Please do not read this as me assuming the quality of relationships on last year's team. I picked these players soley based on how I could arrange them for the example. Given that each player on the left side shares one similarity with each other player, it would be more difficult to fracture that team than the team on the right side.
Anyway, there's a very complicated formula used to calculate fau, or the strength of faultlines within a team. In their study, the team looked at every MLB team between 2004 and 2008. Not only did they find that teams with stronger faultlines tended to have poorer records, but player groups tended to perform better as a whole when the faultines between those subgroups were weak. Player groups used here were starting batters, bench batters, starting rotation, and bullpen.
As a veteran Latino player, Correa can relate to both veteran players and players from Latin American countries. Other than Jorge Polanco and Jorge Lopez, none of the Latino players projected to play for the squad next year have reached their late 20s, but there are several players from the USA who are in their late 20s. Having the type of players who can bridge gaps is important.
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There are a lot of fun findings that I don't have the room to go into in these three papers (I say as I wrap up a 1,500 word blog), and I encourage you to check them out, if you're into that thing. There is evidence out there that the interpersonal side of team construction does make a difference, but we still have a long way to go. If people end up enjoying this deep dive, I have other research I'd love to share.
Cope, C. J., Eys, M. A., Beauchamp, M. R., Schinke, R. J., & Bosselut, G. (2011). Informal roles on sport teams. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 9(1), 19-30.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233355503_Informal_roles_on_sport_teams/link/00b7d526fcd315e5b4000000/download
Kim, J., Godfrey, M., & Eys, M. (2020). The antecedents and outcomes of informal roles in interdependent sport teams. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology, 9(3), 277–291. https://doi.org/10.1037/spy0000179
Shamsie, J., & Mannor, M. J. (2013). Looking inside the dream team: Probing into the contributions of tacit knowledge as an organizational resource. Organization Science, 24(2), 513-529.
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/orsc.1120.0741?casa_token=8-aXs_42nYoAAAAA:GLmBckoRaDqxm44T9vSTbsqFu7wZtgLn8uOTjUvEDHi52Ghl3pDWjUX-kOl-iFiaE0Y3MrWFTS0
Bezrukova, K., Spell, C. S., Caldwell, D., & Burger, J. M. (2016). A multilevel perspective on faultlines: Differentiating the effects between group-and organizational-level faultlines. Journal of Applied Psychology, 101(1), 86.
https://www.scu.edu/media/college-of-arts-and-sciences/psychology/documents/Bezrukova-et-al-JAP-2015.pdf