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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    He hasn't really walked very much this year, has he?
  2. ashbury
    The strange thing to me is that despite my impression of him as a Lefty One Out Guy (modified to some extent by a recent rule change) his splits are nowhere near the death-to-lefties profile that I thought would fit. His career-long OPS-against (the only timeframe I'm willing to judge this reliever by) is in the .600s for batters of either persuasion. I don't know whether a contender looking for a final bullpen piece wants that, or wants a guy who can absolutely shut down left-handed batters, a talent Caleb doesn't quite demonstrate, although he's been pretty good, thus bringing to a close my run-on sentence.
  3. ashbury
    Kintzler was released and signed so many times, only the commissioner's office could tell you whether and how his service time played a role. Ehire was a waiver wire pickup for our Twins.
  4. ashbury
    Disappointing. But if the Dodgers are willing to settle for a good pitcher on an expiring contract, injury considerations aside, extracting a king's ransom for 1.5 years of Berrios might need a different trade partner. Then again, could also be two teams negotiating through the media.... "Gettin' lotsa offers on Berrios, just FYI." "Thinkin' hard about someone else, in case you're wonderin'."
  5. ashbury
    OK, my above post was good-natured trolling based on the subject line. To address some actual points in the article: Miguel Sano is death by a thousand cuts. Yes, his good moments are worth celebrating, but over and over the opportunities that are cost by his striking out and hitting easy outs outweigh the good, and moreover it seems like his big hits too often come when the pressure is lowest. Win Probability Added is a nice toy that tries to keep separate ledgers for the good outcomes at bat and the bad outcomes, which may or may not have all the kinks worked out (shaddap, Chief), but for Sano in 2021 it matches my eye test: his Positive WPA is fourth best on the team, while his Negative WPA leads the team, and the net is a negative for his batting contributions. Similar story for 2020. That's not a seasonal consistency to be desired. My opinion is that opposing pitchers have some say in the matter, and Miguel isn't able to adapt to the differing pitch selections he's offered, situationally. Since he can't contribute much with the glove or running the bases, that's bad. Nick Gordon is proving far better than my low expectations based on a couple of games I watched at AAA. Good for him, and good for the Twins, and don't hire me as scout. Concur on the other points - Mitch Garver fills the bill as a bat-first catcher, the pitching needs overhauling (maybe I mentioned that already), and our corner bat prospects are looking like they'll make it.
  6. ashbury
    Five Takeaways for the 2021 Twins: Take away Matt Shoemaker Take away J.A. Happ Take away Alex Colomé Take away Hansel Robles Take away Wes Johnson
  7. ashbury
    Not sure about that. Their best offer in hand might be attached to a deadline - the other team might have a plan B for if they get outbid on Berrios, and could demand enough of a window of time to carry it out. A deal today won't surprise me, if the FO judges that the "best result possible" today is only slightly inferior to a theoretical "best possible result" tomorrow.
  8. ashbury
    Pipe dream without Hosmer. Non-starter, with Hosmer.
  9. ashbury
    It depends on how much groupthink you believe there is among the extended scouting community. If you have confidence that your own scouting/evaluation department is drawing independent conclusions, then if the couple of guys they place at the top of the pecking order are the same as the other teams who keep inquiring, you might want to trust the aggregate feedback you're getting. You win championships with difference makers. If they are telling you that a bunch of your prospects are closely matched (flaws and strengths varying but more or less equal on balance), or if your analytics team is chock full of evidence that it's all a crapshoot like you say, then sure, trade the guys who are higher ranked by national media or who certain teams keep asking you for. Does require a lot of confidence in your staff, though. And be prepared for the guy you trade away to pull a Baddoo on you and cause some bad press. Finally, I question how "substantial" the players coming to you will be. Top-shelf pitching prospects aren't coming to you for a Larnach or a Kirilloff - that to me has been the flaw with the team's drafting strategy for several years now. You can't draft corner guys and then swap them for pitching that has reached high-A or AA.
  10. ashbury
    I have a feeling a lottery ticket player at minimum goes the other direction, if indeed the Dodgers don't balk at their two headliners entirely.
  11. ashbury
    Pretty soon we'll be adding the extra letter when speaking of our Twins organization, one hopes.
  12. ashbury
    This team is entirely capable of those, too. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN202105190.shtml
  13. ashbury
    Baseball-reference.com has only 6 HR for the Cubs in that game: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN195504160.shtml But I don't necessarily trust every box score online. Do you have a different source? B-r.com's Stathead tool reveals four games where a team hit 7 HR and lost: https://stathead.com/tiny/aQkvz In none of those games did the winning team hit 0. I think we have an historic event!
  14. ashbury
    Regarding waiver claims, let me offer a reminder... Burros are asses. Burrows are holes in the ground. Our front office is expected to understand the difference.
  15. ashbury
    What????
  16. ashbury
    " "The fault, dear Miggy, is not in our stars, but in ourselves." -- Cassius, baseball analyst
  17. ashbury
    Agree generally with all the points in the article - and might be fine with an opposite take on each individual player not on an expiring contract. It all depends on what is offered, and even more importantly what the talent evaluators tell me about the fundamentals of the acquired players' games. For Berrios, I anticipate either the Padres or Dodgers to emerge with the best offer, because I expect neither wants the other to land him. Seattle may be a good candidate but doesn't have quite that same jealousy to either motivate them or their rival, I think.
  18. ashbury
    In his four games since coming back up, he has assembled a .961 OPS. Not bad. Built upon a batting average on balls in play of only .125. Imagine his results when his luck starts to even out! (Ah, the joys of small sample size, coupled with an all-or-nothing approach.)
  19. ashbury
    Okay, which one of you had "Kenta Maeda scores the winning run" on your bingo card?
  20. ashbury
    We see what you did there.
  21. ashbury
    Yo, Chief, I’m really happy for you, and Imma let you finish, but RandBalls Stu had some of the best posts of all time. Of. All. Time.”
  22. ashbury
    You tolerate me! You sorta-halfway tolerate me!
  23. ashbury
    Cano's stats at AAA aren't good yet, and even throwing out that first game you want to see numbers more dominant than he's showing because they will get worse when called up to the majors. But it may be that he's pitching in a bit of bad luck, with a batting average on balls in play above .400 there. He may still be someone to watch for a major-league chance late this year or early next.
  24. ashbury
    Hadn't checked up on Sabato for a while. He's batting .187, but his on-base percent is almost double that, .356. I guess they must be coaching him to not swing at crap and he's doing that just about better than anybody* - so when he does swing, is it right through good pitches??? The contact tool is probably the one closest to indispensable, and it seems like one that can be taught if there's any aptitude at all. *Edouard Julien is no slouch in this department, and he's batting .290 on top of that.
  25. ashbury
    That's the type of game our 2021 Twins can win. If the left fielder makes an accurate throw on the first try, and then with Simmons coming to bat, the rally is probably snuffed.
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