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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    "Twins Lose No-Hitter in Ninth Inning" Regular readers here would be excused for thinking, based on a too-rapid reading of the headline, that the Twins lost the game 1-0 or similar on some kind of weird walk/error/wildpitch scenario.
  2. ashbury
    But you're saying the idea is on the table. Good. Baby steps.
  3. ashbury
    No.
  4. ashbury
    What did you think of the Angels' 2021 draft of (essentially) all college arms?
  5. ashbury
    So you think it's 50-50 they gain four and a half in three weeks?
  6. ashbury
    What kind of odds would you consider fair? 50-50? I'll stand by my characterization.
  7. ashbury
    Sure, and I don't care much for I-told-you-so's, but, An article titled "5 Twins Predictions Certain to Come True" begs to be revisited, and It took only a week, not the month for winning the AL Central to look like a longshot rather than a certainty
  8. ashbury
    Friday and Saturday look like the defining moments of the season for me. The two free agent starters the FO selected both came up small when the situation was big. Bundy allowed 4 runs in the first inning. Archer made it through 2 innings before succumbing to injury, after five months of light duty for a starter. I don't question the two pitchers themselves, who I have no doubt worked hard and performed to the best of their abilities and who might have contributed to a championship caliber team in some different role. The Front Office's judgment, however, I do question.
  9. ashbury
    Well, sure, the sweep happened at home, but I'm confident things will change when Cleveland hosts them soon. Everything is better on the road.
  10. ashbury
    That's fair. Even before the opt-out date, the Twins do have a decision whether to try to negotiate some different deal that keeps him with the team for a different period of time than the present agreement.
  11. ashbury
    Not 100% sure from the way you phrased it, but I hope it's understood the Twins have no say regarding Correa. They are committed by contract. Correa is the one with a decision to make.
  12. ashbury
    As this roster was being constructed starting last November, half the names on the list given were known injury risks (or in the case of Maeda were already shelved for at least the first part of the season). The Front Office is getting no sympathy from me, not even patience, if they are moaning "oh, the injury bug!" Some injuries to unexpected players are an inevitable part of baseball, but this roster was constructed to court injury.
  13. ashbury
    "No idea." Apparently! Ell oh ell oh ell oh ell. So much for my reading comprehension of game logs. Thanks for the gentle tap with the Clue Bat.
  14. ashbury
    Reliable sources tell us that Cleveland is offering to pay the 2023 options/salaries for both Bundy and Archer. To stay with the Twins another season.
  15. ashbury
    The rankings I gave were for MLB as a whole, not just the AL. While the 60-game season was certainly an unusual case, my own experience dealiing with data leads me to be very wary about discarding data. "Small sample" by itself isn't a good reason, as you go on to point out by slicing the current season into segments - shall we throw out the first 43 games of this season, while we're cleansing data? It's all data to consider.
  16. ashbury
    Concur that 5 innings isn't some kind of rule. But the examples you give are outliers to what is probably their actual intention. Daniel Gossett is a 29-year old retread, and I have no idea what conditions led to him throwing 120 pitches that day but I wouldn't imagine he represents any kind of typical plan for development. Derek Rodriguez likewise is a 30-year old retread, but his 6 inning stint required only 62 pitches. Instances like Festa, well he was efficient that day too, and threw only 75 pitches to achieve that innings total. Jordan Carr likewise, with 79 pitches. At the major league level they worry about 3rd time through the order and all that. But for development, they just want to see the young arms get a measured amount of work, likely in terms of pitch counts (maybe they even get down to requiring an exact mix of fastballs vs breaking stuff, or have other measures for "work" than raw number of pitches), so innings worked is only an indirect measure of anything.
  17. ashbury
    Seems like a narrative in search of some different set of outcomes than the actual. 2019: 307 HR (#1 in majors), .623 winning percentage 2020: 91 HR (#6), .600 pct (shortened season) 2021: 228 HR (#5), ..451 pct 2022: 159 HR (#12), .504 pct (season not yet complete) Rocco won the year after the 307 HR even though the HR somewhat declined relative to the rest of the league, the HR stayed at about that same relative level but the wins nevertheless took a nosedive, and finally the HR declined some more yet the wins bounced back some. Not a very strong correlation IMO.
  18. ashbury
    The latest shiny, new, sky's-the-limit trinket? Yeah, prolly.
  19. ashbury
    I for one am going to be a LOT more circumspect in my posting, going forward.
  20. ashbury
    Or he'll muddle along.
  21. ashbury
    The manager is put in a bad position whenever a starter gives up a four-spot in the top of the first inning. Every analysis seems to assume someone fresh will come in and put zeroes on the scoreboard the rest of the way, but that isn't how even the best bullpens function. Rocco made a choice or two as the game progressed, after the first home run (nobody's saying to pull Bundy before that, are they?), and the result was 8 2/3 innings of 3-run baseball. Kudos to Aaron Sanchez of course for a lot of that. A 3.12 ERA is better than the Twins' season average. Twins woulda won if Bundy had limited the damage to 1 run in the first (4.00 team ERA for the team/game) instead of what he did (7.00 ERA for the team/game). Blame for this loss goes to Bundy, 100%. Well, 50% to him for not doing better, 50% to the FO for picking him and thinking they had accomplished much.
  22. ashbury
  23. ashbury
    Ick.
  24. ashbury
    That's true of all science fiction. With enough ifs, any article drifts into candidacy for publication in Analog Science Fiction and Fact. If Gray has a clean bill of health If Mahle isn't done for the season If Ryan becomes better If Buxton comes back at all If Larnach's batting woes were injury induced If Polanco comes back healthy I'm only barely paraphrasing what was the heart of the article, paragraphs 4 and 5. My focus on "if" didn't even include taking issue with a statement like "they can be as good as anyone during a short series." Even fully healthy, no, they can't. Except in the very basic, literal sense that sometimes even the Nationals beat the Dodgers, and the Twins are indeed better than the woeful Nats.
  25. ashbury
    Because someone's on base against Pagan, all the time? / okay, the bases are clear after each home run
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