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Everything posted by ashbury
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A Couple of Suitors Definitely Miss Carlos Correa Now
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Depends on the player, and the team's ability to finance their payroll, but I do agree that it's a tad premature to be gloating quite yet. Those teams didn't back out because they didn't think he could put together numbers like we're seeing right now, they backed out due to injury concerns, as I understand it. Long way to go yet, on the guaranteed part of that contract. The backers-outers could still be proved right.- 54 replies
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- carlos correa
- royce lewis
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Since his BA on the road is .402, that's the main component of his SLG, the difference of .087 being an ISO that isn't one of a slugger either. It's an oddity of the terminology, nothing more; it takes nothing away from his being very good at what he (actually) does, which is mostly hit singles in any ballpark.
- 13 replies
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- luis arraez
- first base
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To go back to the metaphor I used in the post you replied to, I didn't say he'd checked every box on the list yet. 😀 Consistency is something that can probably be acquired; I also haven't formed an opinion on the related matter of his game intelligence, such as coming in and deciding to be a Hero on sinking line drives, AKA Jake Cave Disease. The arm probably is not something that can be corrected if it hasn't been corrected by now. But not absolutely every box needs to be checked, in order to be a productive major leaguer. He profiles better in LF due to that arm. But we lived through a season of Ben Revere in RF, so nothing is impossible. Another unchecked box for him is power at the plate. That's another one that is looking unlikely. A three-tool player if he turns out to be that... there are uses for those.
- 34 replies
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- royce lewis
- chris paddack
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Martin: one of the boxes Austin had yet to check for me was the ability to play the outfield wall. The time or two I'd watched him try, it hadn't been impressive (or successful). As of today, that box is unchecked no longer. He may still fail to close the deal on a long, difficult fly ball from time to time, but it's not as though he simply can't.
- 34 replies
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- royce lewis
- chris paddack
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I always come back to the notion that even if Arraez is close to a one-tool player, that tool is the most indispensable one, and his hit tool is elite. To the argument that he doesn't provide power, it's easy to counter that with "it's a team sport", with some players setting the table and others driving them in. You might not want a batting order with 9 Luis Arraez types (of varying talent level - a lineup of all .350 hitters would be pretty darn good, but those are unicorns as you say), since you'll normally need 3 base hits in an inning just to score one run and not even Ty Cobb batted .500 in order to do that with regularity. But you wouldn't want 9 Dave Kingmans* either, at the other extreme. Balance is key to good offense, and Luis Arraez can be part of such. You mention OPS and I always like to point out to its detractors, who'll say things like it overrates home runs, that 1) it's only a quick and dirty stat and doesn't promise Absolute Truth about anybody, and 2) unlike any other component, it values batting average TWICE in how it's computed, homers or walks only one way each. I think it's actually pretty good for a q'n'd stat, and counting base hits twice (in OBP and in SLG) seems about right. Batting average is important, and it's how Arraez earns a good OPS even with minuscule ISO; he doesn't slug, and yet his slugging average isn't embarrassing. Ultimately, though, I turn the "team sport" argument around the other way, and point out that someone like Arraez himself doesn't do for his teammates what he expect his teammates to do for him: drive in runners. And for all his hitting prowess, he's on a 162-game pace to score only 95 runs this season. That's very good and every team would love to have that from its regulars; the average team last year scored about 750 runs, or about 83 runs for every spot in the lineup. But 95 isn't other-worldly, and the other-worldly batting average kind of misleads what his full contribution is. At some point you have to stop blaming the teammates and acknowledge he infrequently puts himself on second base to be easily driven home, and he almost never drives himself in with a homer, both of which are ways to assure yourself of scoring more runs with the same batting average. He never really "yield(s) a lot of runs scored." Not a lot lot. Plus, he's only on a pace to drive in 42 runs, and it's not useful to say it's not his job. That's part of yielding a lot of runs too. Runs are the job and every contribution matters. Yes he's a unicorn, and it's easy to over-value those. IMO we did great by obtaining an established starting pitcher in trade for him. * Old school reference, I know. One of the complaints about the "modern" three-true-outcomes style of play is that it's turned every batter into Dave Kingman. While Dave himself was a fun oddity in his day, the effect of everyone being like that is dull for many observers.
- 13 replies
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- luis arraez
- first base
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A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
A visit to an Asheville NC restaurant changed my view. Sauted in a little oil as you say (I think sesame oil was involved), garlic, lemon, some brown sugar, grated ginger - that was what I could reverse engineer, and it turned my opinion around completely. Then again maybe anything bathed in a thickened gingery lemonade, with a little cooked garlic and sesame, is probably improved except my morning corn flakes. -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I once saw Cale described as your favorite guitarist's favorite guitarist, FWIW. -
Don't draft anybody as a second baseman. Be honest and call him a good defensive first baseman or so-so left fielder, and draft because you totally believe his bat plays if he's stationed there. This is even if he's a college man. Because, a quick scan of first rounds of the draft a decade or so ago suggests this is what you end up with on a draftee designated "2B". 2B leads you to fool yourself that he's almost good enough to play SS - but he won't be. Tons of guys with the SS label in the draft aren't good enough to stick there either, so don't kid around about 2Bmen. You'll get your 2Bmen from the SS who wash out. What's that? Edouard Julien was drafted as a second baseman? Yeah, as an 18th rounder. This is a first-round discussion, yes? (And plenty of folks will argue that Eddie's not destined to stick at second, even now.) (I have to go back to 2011 to find a first-round exception, the illustrious Cory Spangenberg. Oh, okay, Kolten Wong, later that same first round - yeah he's been good.)
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- mlb draft 2024
- travis bazzana
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A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
He got a base hit in his one opportunity after being plunked. I suggest someone on the bench just keep playfully tapping him on that spot on the arm, to keep his head in the game. -
4 Triple-A Hitters Ready to Upgrade the Twins' Offense
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If you had spelled out that it could also be one, or the other, you might have earned a coveted Yes from Chief.- 37 replies
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- matt wallner
- brooks lee
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Correa strikes me as possibly like the old saying about cocky guys such as AJ: "You hate him when he's in the opponents ' dugout, and you hate him a little less when he's in yours." No, I don't think it's actually quite like that, but this survey might be reflective of something along that line.
- 37 replies
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- carlos correa
- anthony rendon
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Key is how closely the metric matches customer experience, or is simply the only proxy for it on hand. Such a different domain than baseball, though.
- 121 replies
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- alex kirilloff
- matt wallner
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A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Plus you don't even need the box to know when the Twins' *ahem* more selective hitters are getting jobbed by the umpire. 😊 -
Fifteen years ago, maybe. But, baby steps, baby steps. 😊
- 48 replies
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- max kepler
- simeon woods richardson
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A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
His acoustic version of "Over the Rainbow" was barely known until Judy Garland did her cover of it. / edit - I do lie, I do lie -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Hi-yo! -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
J. J. Cale. I don't lie. -
The A's already got Mason Miller out of Pittsburgh. 😀 Good article, and I'm not going to be constructive this time.
- 17 replies
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- jp sears
- brent rooker
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I don't necessarily hate any of these acquisitions but would not want to pay much in terms of prospects. Bader for example is Manny Margot except apparently still with centerfielder's chops; if the Mets were to accept Manny plus a low level prospect (outside our top 20 or 30, say) or two, sure, that's an upgrade worth a little effort I suspect. Severino probably will cost more than I'm willing to give up for a good pitcher on an expiring contract. Manaea looks iffy but maybe the price in prospects is close to nothing, though the question of his player-option for next season would have to be addressed. Ottavino's ERA is unsightly but at a quick glance he may have run into bad luck and is actually still at career norms for performance even at age 38. Fun to think about, devil's in the details.
- 29 replies
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- sean manaea
- luis severino
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Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He OPSed 1.104 in 133 PA, May 30 to July 1, 2023 at St Paul. Probably interesting stats could be found by compiling his career minor league stats on alternate Saturdays, too. You can find all kinds of interesting **** in small samples. 😀 -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Frog legs twitch when current is applied, even after amputation. I'll wait until Max is back in the lineup before declaring him alive. -
A's (Estes) vs Twins (Ober): 6/15/24, 1:10pm (postponed)
ashbury replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Man. I stared at those lyrics before posting, and still didn't see it. It was right there. -
Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Finding himself? He's already been at AAA two previous seasons, and did better. Recent trends may be good, but short stretches of 100 PA here and there can be misleading. Best to count all the stats. As I just got done saying in another thread, a similar "past few weeks" analysis would have us installing Manny Margot as our everyday left fielder. I'm a long time believer in Wallner, but even so I want to tap the brakes a bit here. -
Pretty sure it's the slider that does that. HTH, HAND. 😀
- 24 replies
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- david festa
- brandon winokur
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