Doctor Gast

Big name FAs are at best a crapshoot. FAs are rated by their stats the prior year, what are the odds that they are going to have better years with you? Not very good, the odds are that they'll have worse years, the degree of worse will vary. Looking at only stats you'll never come out ahead. So you have to look beyond stats to underlying conditions. Debating w/ Nash Walker last off season, I ceded to him that Rodon would be a good FA target. CWS old school manager La Russa wanted his SPs to go as deep as possible & Rodon couldn't go as deep as he wanted w/o injury & ineffectiveness (IMO that's why CWS let him go). Even w/ the injury risk, I ceded that if Rodon was dialed back & managed right, he be a good fit for MN. Now Rodon will be expensive with many bidding on him.

I understand my friend. But this is the lowest it has ever been. Yes it could be lower next year depending what kind of year he might have & the # of years on his contract but it could be a little higher. But this isn't the main reason my main reason is my 2nd reason. 2nd reason is we have no one capable to replace him right now. The 2 you mention are terrible, the shift helped to hide some of their warts. But now with the shift banned and possible lost of Correa, our INF will become a laughing stock & extreme embarassment to the team & fans, not to mention a deep hole we'll be in, Until they throw untested prospects in there and it'll be '21 all over again. Last year would have been a better year because he had a great year in '21 and his trade value was close to what he was worth. And we had Royce Lewis on the cusp to enter MLB and we had Correa to take up any gap. Reading Twins News today, I get the feeling that Correa is gone. I don't care about any hype that people spin, Arraez & Gordon are terrible at 2B. Any combo of them & throw in unready prospects will be disasterous like it was in '21. I get the feeling that management hasn't learned anything from the last couple of years. And this season will be another wasted season.

It's an absolute shame the way that mangement ran Polo to the ground. When he 1st shown signs of injury they should have started to give him a break on the IL to rest his knee besides the treatment they may have given him. 2 months of well below 100% production until he was lost for the season, is unexcuseable. The 2nd half is when he normally really turns it on when he's healthy. 1st reason why we shouldn't trade him now is. Besides the lost production he lost when we really needed it, he lost trade value. Too many people trade when their stock is down, that the exactly when not to sell. Polanco is well below his true trade value, so I wouldn't think about trading him. You trade someone when they are rated above their true value. I advocated to trade Maeda in the '20/'21 off season because his trade value was inflated, to trade for a bona fide ace. 2nd reason is we have no one capable to replace him right now. The 2 you mention are terrible, the shift helped to hide some of their warts. But now with the shift banned and possible lost of Correa, our INF will become a laughing stock & extreme embarassment to the team & fans, not to mention a deep hole we'll be in, Until they throw untested prospects in there and it'll be '21 all over again. Yes we have needs that we should trade for but our best bet is someone that has an inflated trade value & who's not essential defensively. I like Polo but when the prospects have gotten their feet wet & has shown that they are ready both defensively & offensively & Polo's trade value is where it should be then we can think about trade. But not now!

Our contract with Maeda is the same one that the LAD had & they used Maeda extensively in the BP. Coming off surgery recovery, I wouldn't count on Maeda to save our rotation as some think, He is better served in the BP. I don't count on Paddack at all for 2023, and like you said T&R that he might not be useful until '25. We shouldn't caught up on hype but look at reality. Beyond Gray, Mahle & Ryan we look weak as far innings are concerned. Snydergaard has all the hype but he has been injured a lot. He'll be riskier than others that we'll tried to revamp, So no thanks.

Sorry Nick, none of these really do anything for me. Odorizzi, did well for us because we handled him with "kit gloves". Away from MN they didn't & he peters out. Unfortunately we can't afford the FA SP what most MN fans are clamoring for.

Off season '21 PIT offered us Musgrove for Larnach (IMO was a good deal), all the FO had to do was give a reasonable counter-offer with a 2-3 lesser prospects. But they let it pass and SD picked him up for peanuts. Here's a great opportunity that was laid in their laps & they slept on it. We had a far superior pitcher coaching than PIT & SD, Musgrove could've been better under us than what he has already done. IMO our FO fail to see teams that are motivated to sell & capitalize on the situation. Besides PIT there other teams like Reds, Cubs & As were motivated. Those who struck 1st got the best deals. Even the Maeda trade, LAD was very motivated to move the disgruntal Maeda. We didn't have to trade our top pitching prospect. Looking back it seems like most of the best trades has passed us by. But I'm satisfied with the Gray trade which is your benchmark. Hopefully this is a sign that this FO has woken .

Maeda has never been a work horse, coming back from an injury, I don't expect much. You hope we don't get another Chris Archer, well we have one in Maeda. If Maeda can produce as many innings as Archer, I'd be satisfied. If Maeda is profiled as SP and used as one, I wouldn't be surprized if we lose him as soon as we get him back. There'll be a lot of competition for high end SP both FA & trade. I have my wish list but I'm not holding my breath. I just hope we have some one that some one wants, that FO is willing to deal.

Thanks Steve, I look forward to your weekly reports. Looks like Martin hurt something & needed some time off. Julien is progressing nicely. Martin & Julien aren't letting us down. Peguero is looking more & more promising.

Although it's not impossible it's very difficult to land that caliber of SP via FA. We just don't have the $ or the conditions that attracts them. Our best bet is trade, I like teams like maybe MIA (Lopez), CO (Marquez)or MIL (Woodruff). Because they aren't looking at rebuilding (prospects) but at reinforcing weak areas (veterans or players MLB ready), Development is another way. When has that ever happened? Maybe Blyleven? which we traded or Camilo Pasqual? The last time we really had an ace was Johan Santana. We got him via rule 5 draft & was lucky we had a key to unluck him with the circle change up. Having a keen eye and insight is our best bet for a repeat. I like the rotation we presently have, Mahle, I'm assuming that he'd be ready to go coming spring, since there was no impingement detected(he more likely had a dead arm). I expect both Gray, Ober & Ryan to be healthier and pitch more total innings this '23 season. Because we'll have a normal spring trainingI expect Maeda if he has close to a Archer type '22 season we'll be ahead in the game. I'd like a (Lopez), Mahle, Gray & Ryan rotation with a rotating # 5th SP in Ober. Varland, Winder and later in the season Maeda & SWR. When they aren't SPing they should be liberally used in long relief. We also have Sands, Paddack, Dobnak & Smeltzer to plug in when neccessary in long relief. I see a baseball game as a relay race with a long distance runner (SP)+ mid distance runner (long RP) + sprinter (short RP). Last season our sprinting group was by far our weakess group yet their plan was long distance+ sprinter + sprinter + sprinter + sprinter and mid distance runner was eliminated. This strategy was easy to see the sprinting group would faulter quickly resulted in lost races. So they made the long distance runner run an extra lap. The long distance runners started to get injured & slower resulting in more lost races. The mid distance runner (long RP) was never used all season resulting in a losing season again. Hopefully our short RPs will be much better eventually, our rotation will be stronger but the secret to winning is capitalizing on our strong long RPs. Management needs to communicate this that all SPs, long RPs and short RPs are all crucial in winning the game. If a SP is pulled before that SP thinks he's ready, it's not a slap in the face, it's a team effort. The goal isn't trying to squeezing every inning you can out of a SP, it's putting up quality- elite innings out of your pitching staff. At the end of the season, you'll have won more games, pitchers will be more rested, healthier, happier & hungrier. Pitchers will be evaluated in how many elite innings they can count on each pitcher to enter the post season.

I've recommend CO before & I had basicly traded Kepler for Marquez at BTV. I like Kepler and IMO Kepler could revitalize his career in Coors Field. I think Marquez could flurish here away from Coors. FO will have to sell the deal but I believe everyone could come out ahead in that deal.

I don't trust most defensive metrics, through all the fanangling around our catching depth took a hugh hit. But I say we won the deal mainly because it opened the door for us to get Correa and 2nd Urshella was a dependable piece which we utilized. IKF is a very good SS and a good hitter, the fact that he's not a slugger shouldn't have any bearing on this premium position. The reason NYY moved on from IKF IMO, is that they have 2 SS prospects that they are very high on. IKF was just a safety net they chose not to fully utilize. Rortvedt was hurt so he never really figured in your analysis. But if we don't land Correa this off season, I'd like to get both IKF & Rortvedt back in a trade.

I forgot to mention Miranda

Ops! Sorry but they limited one per customer but some got greedy & they ran out! Shoot Twins missed out again!

I agree with you Ted. I heard not too long ago that maybe just maybe that LAD might not pursue Trea Turner and focus on Judge and go with Lux at SS. IMO Phillies are our main competition for Correa, with Turner available they might just go after Turner instead. Reducing the demand for Correa.

I see your point and that's FO question. My point is the neccessity to profile pitchers (I think # of pitches thrown or times through the order could be more precise but I thought innings could be simpler) and not over extend them to keep them healthier, more effective & hungrier translating into more quality innings throughout the season.

The big 4 will want big bucks & long term, If we don't land Correa, I wouldn't be interested in any of the others, I don't want to sign Bogaert to big SS money for him to play 3B. If I'm paying someone big money to play SS, I want him to stick at SS and play Lewis, Lee or Martin at 3B. My 2nd choice is to trade for IKF for a 1yr.

I think you can pick one up at Ace Hardware.

I actually put this trade in at BTV, a while ago. So I'm all in favor with this idea. In my payrole blueprints, I had Correa in my 1st & IKF in my 2nd backup plan. I think NYY is motivated for the reason you mentioned & also they have 2 SS prospects coming up that they are very high on. I haven't been following the play offs that closely except CLE, there IKF were one the batting leaders. But at SS, glove is priority, the bat is the icing on the cake.

These are aces and post season games, like Reptivia said in post season season games all regular rules go out the window. The last CLE/ NYY game, especially the game postponed I was expecting Beiber to start that game to win against the "Evil Empire" but they didn't.

Sorry, my bad. I see what you mean where being well compensated & the exposure of being in NY they would overlook this setback. Maybe if a front line SP is given a premium over what they are worth to play in MN (which I doubt very much that they'd do) with a temporary sub par SS, they might consider it but I still doubt it.

The little he has played in AFL he has done very well, he has shown that he can play at this level and deserves more playing time. Aree with chpette that OF & 3B is out of the question. He doesn't have the top end speed but he's quick, which he could make it at 2B or if not he could excel at 1B. Until recently we have been drafting & hoarding players majoring in big bats and minor in the glove department. We were very deep at corner OF, 2B, 1B & DH. It was good to weed some out and get some players where we were shallow. It's easy to get excited about Julien, I believe he could get a chance at the end of '23 season if he continue on this path.

1st I'd like congratulate Arraez, Kepler & Correa. And Bogaerts at SS, What do they use to rank these players for GG?

Great evalution at SS, chpettit. We need to sign Correa, we can always trade him (when) if Lewis establish himself as an all-star SS. Yet again it's great to have 2 great SS on hand. Lee could stick at SS (but not high end), Martin won't. CF, SS, SP & catching are the bedrock of the defense so hitting should not take priority over defense. Back when pitchers would hit, you never look at pitcher if he could hit you look at what he could do on the mound.

I'm sorry Jimmy, I don't agree. Top of the line pitchers when they have a choice, they like big markets and they love a great SS behind them. Poor defense creates runs against them, that costs them games, that makes them look bad which cost them $. It's true they'll normally don't give discounts for defense (or anythingelse for matter of fact). Gordon has never evaluated well at SS. The '21 fiasco, when they forced him to transform from a SS to CF breathed life into his dying baseball career. Now he's a much better OFer than INFer.

I heard a rumor that maybe, just maybe that LAD will not pursue own SS Trea Turner, to focus on Judge. That means teams like PHL could pursue Turner instead of Correa.