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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    This may be possible but what free agent pitchers are we targeting that will take up the budget? What is your budget? $90 M? $100 M? .... $150 M? It makes a difference whether you plan to spend $90 or $150 M or any point in between. I believe enough examples have shown that Story and three good pitchers via trade will fit within a budget of near $120 M. No trades or Story make sense at a budget of $90 M. There are not pitchers available as free agents to spend money on at this time other than a risky deal for Rodon which seems completely unlikely when the Twins were not interested in any of the other free agent pitchers in that price range. Of course, never say never. The argument against Story no longer involves money unless the Twins have already maxed out their budget.
  2. tony&rodney
    The roster was done to show a couple of givens: 1) any budget to $120 M makes the Twins a possible contender; 2) Story fits on that budget; 3) there is room to add three pitchers in trades; and 4) to question whether the actual budget is really going to be near $95-105 M. I purposely left the pitching roster unfilled (names were inserted as minimum salaries) because it shows that a contending team can add three pitchers and what a team (with rookies only starting pitching) looking to win 70-75 games would look like. There are a number of very skeptical, pessimistic, sarcastic, and negative Twins fans who mock attempts by those who believe the team can be competitive in 2022. I don't know, perhaps it is time to end all discussions about the Twins and the potential 2022 rosters. MLB is locked out and I get those who want to lock out baseball, but lifetime fans keep dragging their hopes along.
  3. tony&rodney
    Below is a roster with Story. It includes the players the Twins have currently. The numbers are close. Additional signings and trades would add to the total. What is not clear at all is the budget set by Pohlad. The lack of action may mean that $100-110 M is what Falvey has been handed. Many of us used $130 M. If a budget can accommodate $120 M, more or less, then Story with the additions via trades suggested by many like TopGun#22 work and serve the team best for both 2022 and the future. Adding Bassitt and Montas adds $12.6 M (CB-$8.8 M plus FM-$5.2 M minus those two displaced, $1.4), but subtracts $1.4 M (Arraez -$2 M minus rookie salary) bringing the total to $120.45. If there is room to spend $120-130 M, there is zero reason not to make all efforts within reason to bring in pitchers with experience to help the Twins young prospects learn and grow. A figure of $100 M totally changes the entire look and plans need to reflect that reality.
  4. tony&rodney
    Story fits at $130 M if the Twins can trade for Cabrera or Meyer instead of signing Pineda, but Big Mike does have experience. Story fits either way at less than $140 M. This all just says that there are options. A number of people see opportunity and try to avoid the taste of pessimism. We hope Falvey is an optimist.
  5. tony&rodney
    Especially if it fits in a budget less than $130 million.
  6. tony&rodney
    A few people have watched me work through the years, but they didn't stay long and they never paid to watch.
  7. tony&rodney
    There was zero reason for Manfred to write a letter to fans. The negotiations should be between the two parties within a room. Clearly, without going into everything, there is blame that may be cast upon either party but the letter was egregious and nonproductive.
  8. tony&rodney
    The Pohlad's, by many accounts, have been good citizens. Nevertheless, Carl paid $5 million down to Calvin Griffith and the remainder in $5 million per year payments. MLB approves who can buy. It is a closed club as Mark Cuban found out. The owners do invest their profits back into their team on occasion but also manage to have the public pay for their stadiums. The owners would laugh at being restricted to a lifetime earnings of any player much less needing to go through the work necessary to reach those levels. I'm not against the owners making big money but their pride in keeping such tight control over the players is a little weird. They could agree to share revenues at a level of near 55% for the players and still make bank. There was a poll a number of years ago and the gist of it was that 75% of the population believed they would reach the upper 1% in wealth through their hard work. This explains why common people often support the uber wealthy over the working class or as Bob Dylan would say, "Everyone sees there self walking around with no one else".
  9. tony&rodney
    I think we are on the same page but expressing it differently perhaps. I might be more willing to trade some field players, for example. Others have given the same ideas in an attempt to bolster the starting staff. The main issue remains the budget. I never expected the Twins to sign two pitchers above the Bundy level. I have targeted Miami, Oakland, and Cincinnati. My preference is to hold on to Ober, Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, and Petty. I don't know the price of pitching but am trying to pry Bassitt and Montas away for Arraez, Larnach, and Strotman. I agree that Strotman has potential and suggest Oakland may believe the same. Additionally, if the Twins could sign Story, I would use Martin or Lewis and a pitcher to see if Miami would trade Meyer and Cabrera (unlikely) or CIN might trade Castillo for a package. The Miami trade would return young pitchers more highly rated than any of ours. In any event these trades would only diminish our stock of prospects by two prospects while returning three accomplished starters. Story is doable and allows the Twins to use prospect capital. My main point is that our young pitchers need some experienced arms to lead the way as they are initiated into MLB.
  10. tony&rodney
    The Twins have three pitchers rated by MLB as 55, four as 50, and three more as 45. There are others with bright futures too. Vallimont, Raya, and Varland rate as 40. The trick is who might interest another team. Oakland has two at 50 and three rated at 45 for comparison. Don't you believe that the Twins could trade one from each group possibly in combination with some field players to gain good pitchers? I guess my focus is to maximize the resources we already have to fill what we need, and those pitchers added via trade would complement Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, et al. It will be tough but it can be done, I believe.
  11. tony&rodney
    The Twins can still sign Story, trade for three good pitchers, and have a roster budget below $120 million. Falvey needs to work throughout the lockout, maybe some cocktail parties with Oakland, Miami, Cincy, and Milwaukee.
  12. tony&rodney
    Jamie, these are sound ideas. The key is not what we want, although this is important, but what Oakland or another team sees as important for their team. There is some good for both teams in a MN-OAK trade. Bassitt and Montas might require a bit more than Larnach, Arraez, and Cavaco. Add Canterino and Strotman, even add Dobnak to close the deal, although I might agree to add even more. I'm also still wishing to pry away a young Miami pitcher too (unlikely) by trading Lewis and Duffey for Cabrera and Meyer. This trade would only be done with the Twins signing Trevor Story to a contract for 6/$132 million. The current roster plus these changes result in a roster for about $120 million. The Twins still have a number of other options too. They could bring in an experienced reserve corner outfielder quite inexpensively. They also have retained minor league players such as Kirilloff, Rortvedt, Martin, Miranda, Celestino, Wallner, Miller, Sabato, Rodriguez, Urbina, and pitchers such as Ryan, Ober, Duran, Winder, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Petty, Enlow, Raya, and Varland. The Twins can afford to part with a few pieces if they can find the partner who looks favorably on our offers. The core of Buxton, Polanco, and others are ready and just need a little boost from the pitching staff. Falvey will unfold his plan in time. The money is not a problem in any way. A roster for less than $120 million is affordable for the Twins franchise.
  13. tony&rodney
    This all goes right back to the budget, where we were when the World Series ended. Use $130 million. Take the current roster (@$85-88), add suggested trades from TopGun#22 that includes Montas ($5.2) and Bassitt ($8.8), sign Pineda ($7-8), and there is still room for a 6/$120-132 million contract for Story. Additionally, if Story is signed the Twins could use either Martin or Lewis in a trade for the right return. There are options and it will be a matter of how Falvey is able to communicate with agents and others. Will the Twins take some risks via trade and a few free agent signings? Or back to the beginning - is the budget for 2022 really closer to $100 million than $130 million?
  14. tony&rodney
    Opinions differ. They are similar. The money will almost surely favor Berrios though. Berrios is no longer a Twin, but he did everything possible to succeed and i wish him well.
  15. tony&rodney
    The post was good, a reasonable suggestion. Thank you Nash. Internet trolls - not needed and boring. Twins fans will need to wait until the CBA is finalized to see if the team can be put together in ways many have mentioned, such as this post by Nash Walker. Unless, .... there is a last minute deal tonight.
  16. tony&rodney
    Maybe, but the Twins pitchers need to protect Buxton in kind. I'm not a fan of this but the reality has always existed.
  17. tony&rodney
    Nash, I'm all in on this post - great idea for the Twins. I would want one more pitcher too in a trade. I did chuckle at your last sentence though ... one of the best .. since last year; good sense of humor there. Despite the reputation of the Twins always struggling with pitching staffs, they have had some really good pitchers some years. Let's see it get done. The Twins have about $85 million on the books right now and $35 million more for pitchers wouldn't kill them.
  18. tony&rodney
    I also believe that Stroman will get a 5/$100 contract. Stroman is a solid pitcher but not as accomplished as Berrios. It seems unlikely that the Twins would pay Stroman more than $17-18 per year when they were not interested in a long term contract with Berrios like 6/$120. I'm not so sure that avoiding Stroman is unsound. I preferred Berrios. The better value is via trade if that can be accomplished. Twins Daily commenters keep churning out ideas and I'm sure the Twins are sifting through scenarios as well. We will need to wait but I sure hope they can pry away a few good pitchers in trades.
  19. tony&rodney
    I'm more inclined to trade some prospects than others. My basis is pure speculation based on projectable value; a pitcher's stuff and a hitter's barrel tendencies. So not very scientific. I keep Winder, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Ober, Miranda, and Martin. I'm willing to trade Duran, Ryan, Lewis, and others in the right situation. Castillo is likely worth Lewis and Kepler, but would try to offer someone else in place of Kepler. I'm still wondering about Montas and interested in what Oakland wants for Bassitt. Apparently, it seems there may be widespread interest in Kepler as a CF. This may produce something. I would want a good return for Kepler. He is very athletic and I do see him improving. But, Castillo, Montas ... yes, we still need good starting pitchers.
  20. tony&rodney
    Winder may just be the best young pitcher the Twins have. i would trade Ryan before giving up Winder. Bassitt is a good add and may not require such a high price. Trades may also be on hold as roster decisions are made, meaning we wait until February to see what happens to complete the 2022 team.
  21. tony&rodney
    The idea of adding pitching via trades is good. One thing that sticks out is the salary for Knebel. He will get $9-11 million most likely based on contracts already signed by relievers. The Yankees may bite on a trade for a catcher. Do they see Kepler as a CF? This is an interesting look.
  22. tony&rodney
    Waiting for "The Plan" is difficult.
  23. tony&rodney
    Manaea is looking better after a few signings and the Pirate-Marlins trade.
  24. tony&rodney
    Trade market seemed like a way to go, specifically Oakland and Miami. Miami opportunity has sailed and "The Plan" might unfold after the whole CBA tussle.
  25. tony&rodney
    If the Twins do sign Ray, it is a contract for years, at least five. This makes it easier to blend in their pitching prospects; good news. It also means that the Twins could add a pitching prospect to sweeten the pot in a potential trade. I'm still thinking that Miami wants something we have and we could use one or two of their pitchers. Oakland also remains a real solid trade partner. A signing of Ray would really open the possibilities for adding less expensive but additional excellent pitching via trades. It is not a stategy that i expected due to the cost of Ray, Rodon, or Stroman but it would be wonderful.
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