tony&rodney

My favorite ploy for handling stocks. Always worth it because my wife gets excited by the sameness of my financial acumen.

In fairness to the Twins, the team was better in the postseason than Atlanta, a team lauded as among the top three all time great offenses in MLB history. The Twins also did better with the bats than Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Dodgers as well. Any team can wind up losing a series against some good pitching. Pablo Lopez made the Astros struggle mightily. The Diamondbacks are a pretty pedestrian team but if they win tonight they will suddenly be getting plaudits and praise beyond all reason. The playoffs are fun and it isn't practical to demand victory. It is reasonable to expect good performance. Julien and Correa were terrific in the postseason as was Lewis. Farmer did fine in limited duty. I want to see better hitting too but am really having a hard time identifying someone who is both a good bet to perform and is a sensible acquisition. Ohtani? Sure, but what are the odds? Soto? Is he even available and at what cost of players sent back to San Diego? It is a down year for bats and it may be quite difficult to pry away a decent piece of lumber from any team. BTW, the trade for Mahle was highly praised nationally and favored by an overwhelming number of folks on Twins Daily. Unfortunately, Mahle hurt his shoulder and then his elbow too. Bad luck for him and the Twins. To close, all of Castro, Solano, and Farmer played significant reserve roles for the Twins and were solid contributors to the season's success. Yes, to any magical bats able to be added. Now .... how?

I believe that Falvey already made that decision for us.

Why does it sound like you pine for the days of Denny Hocking at shortstop?

200+ innings are a fair number to assess a successful season. The manner in which teams restrict pitcher usage makes reaching 200 innings a task for any pitcher in the game today. Only five in 2023, eight in 2022, and four pitchers in 2021 were able to throw 200 innings. If Pablo Lopez can throw 200+ innings in 2024, we can expect a high level of excellence and success in his starts because pitchers who struggle in innings 4-7 are lifted for a reliever pretty quickly. Pablo is a great pitcher with a fine repertoire of pitches that he knows how to use and avoiding the IL is a huge must for him and the Twins. If we can look through his stats at the end of the 2024 campaign and see 200+ innings, all other numbers will fall into the plus-plus category. Health is crucial.

The future is coming and the Twins have as good a chance or better at winning the AL Central than any other team. The club does need to continue with changes, however, to bring in a couple of players that will improve the team and solidify a hold (for now) on the division. You will recall that last April both Cleveland and Chicago were seen as more likely to win the AL Central as the Minnesota Twins. Talent, depth, and improvement are important for continued success.

No, Christian Vazquez is not too expensive for 2024. Starting pitching is critical to any winning team and then it is necessary to have someone to catch the ball. Until the Twins have someone better in their system to promote and another guy as a backup in case of an injury, Vazquez stays. Camargo is the backup now. Perhaps after next season Noah Cardenas rises to become a worthwhile MLB catcher. No more Sanchez or Garver guys behind the plate says every pitcher ever.

Royce Lewis seemed like he was being groomed for CF. The ACL injury, which had (really) nothing to do with playing centerfield changed that for him and the Twins. Of course people change their minds but Falvey and Baldelli were pretty emphatic that Lewis is a third baseman. Not totally insignificant, Boras has stated that Lewis is a superstar infielder in the making. So I think that ship has sailed, no matter what seemed possible looking at the Twins personnel from our perspective. Jorge Polanco is still a very good baseball player. What team is going to trade a valuable player for Polanco? While it is possible that there is some future star playing in the Dominican Summer League available in return for Jorge, I doubt the Twins are adding to their farm system by moving a guy like Polanco right now. The rumors of Polanco's demise may be a few years away. It is very possible that Polanco is added to a prospect or a young controlled player as the second Twins player in a trade. Louie Varland has the potential to be better than both Ryan and Ober. He pitched for a small D2 school, Concordia in St. Paul, before just two full minor league seasons before this past year. Varland is relatively inexperienced. He needs some refinement of his pitches but more importantly needs to throw all of his pitches with the same conviction that he throws his fastball. While Varland was dazzling in his relief role this year, I believe he is a strong 6-7 inning starting pitcher. The TV/media revenue stream is important for the Twins revenue. Will a deal be in place before the Twins need to be negotiating with free agents and conducting discussions on potential deals with other teams? Without a deal in place or reasonably sure on the horizon, the player payroll is unlikely to return to $155 million for 2024. A deal for a strong pitcher would be nice but seems more of an outside wish because of the money. A payroll around $150 million for next season sure would be sweet though.

There are risks and the Twins cannot afford to be risk adverse. When we began to hear small murmurs that Miami had some interest in a Twin last Fall, I was all over the idea and didn't really care who we traded if the return was notable. This offseason there should be additional opportunities, but it isn't clear if any teams see a player(s) from the Twins that is an object of desire. The Twins can afford to trade any player that makes their team better. Falvey needs to identify a player or two that can be reasonably acquired. While it would be decent to add via the free agent market, I believe the pitchers will be too expensive for the Twins and the position player options are limited to Cody Bellinger. A high risk trade for Soto seems very unlikely but he would be a difference maker and hold a spot for a miracle-like rise from Emmanuel Rodriguez. Yes, the Twins need to add talented bats (and pitchers). but it will be a tall task. I'm hopeful.

Correa makes the plays. We can quibble about his range and he did suffer all season with PF, yet at the end of the day he is a rock at shortstop. The Twins haven't had a shortstop of his caliber since Greg Gagne. The contract is a function of his time in the league and demand, similar to Seager and others. I do not consider it at all when watching a player. A huge part of fielding evaluations are the various metrics used to rate players. These tools have been almost continually refined year over year, which is probably for the better. There is also some differences between the different numbers gathered on a player by separate sites. My thought is that these are all interesting but only useful to a degree. Several decades ago I devised my own systems for the players I coached in an attempt to objectively evaluate them. This works beautifully when one guy can mark every pitch and play according to standards. It doesn't work as well when another person uses their systems or even tries to use your measures. Fielding remains subjective despite the various methods used to rate the players. We saw quite a bit of change in two Twins players this past season in reference to defense. Matt Wallner was halting and indecisive on both fly balls and hits coming to him. He has a big arm but his release was slow. By the end of the year Wallner had become much more confidant and covered more ground as an outfielder. He also became much quicker in his transfer to throw the ball. It was almost ridiculous how no player attempted an extra base if there was a chance on balls to hit Wallner. Edouard Julien was intimidated by MLB as a fielder when he arrived and it showed. His defense was .... well, not good. There were calls to get him off the field and worse. By the end of the year Julien was making the plays that should be made and it is likely the Twins can see him as their main second baseman moving forward. The metrics improved dramatically for Julien as well. That said, most would believe that there is still room for improvement. This long paragraph is mostly to ask if anyone knows where to find metrics that break down fielding by the month or weak for the players.?

Farmer is an easy decision for me. The Twins keep him unless there is a really good offer which clearly improves the team. As far as value is concerned, this is determined by each team. You might like Anderson, Berti, or another shortstop better than Farmer but we just don't know. The Twins get a ton of value from Farmer and they are in a win-win situation, either he stays and helps the team or is traded for a player who helps them even more.

Perhaps Varland takes a big step up in 2024. We can also look forward to David Festa getting his feet wet next year and claiming a rotation spot in 2025. But, yes, a trade or free agent signing this offseason is an important key to next season.

an important consideration in any trade is whether BOTH sides see value in the transaction. When one thinks of a specific player exchange, ask yourself whether this is what the other team wants. A couple os teams have already indicated what they see as needs. Miami is looking for a catcher and a shortstop. Cincinnati has position players galore but is looking for pitching. Seattle wants someone who hits at 2B, 1B, and in the outfield. So, some teams can be possibilities for Falvey while others are unlikely. The issues with BTV are pretty deep and you can see yourself some of the suggestions (Twins get Max Muncy & James Outman and send Pablo Lopez to the Dodgers). The idea of Juan Soto in any lineup is favorable. If you are a Padre fan how do you feel about a trade where Griffin Jax and Trevor Larnach head to San Diego and Soto goes to the Twins? This is an overpay by the Twins. I just don't see it. Conversely, Seattle has some pitchers and BTV has them valued very highly. Yet Seattle will listen if an offer fills their needs just as Miami was willing to add two players along with Lopez to acquire Arraez when the values by BTV favored Lopez by a significant margin. I do not know what conversations are in process or are going to occur, but the Twins have some young players to offer if they find a guy to fill their wishes without destroying their own roster. Selling high sounds great but I'm not convinced that players like Castro, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, and Lewis have peaked. They are just beginning to learn the game and have much more to add to what they showed this past season. Most importantly, the budget may be real important this offseason because players like Burnes ($16+M) and Soto ($33M) are not outlandish if the Twins player payroll remains around $155 million.

These are difficult decisions. Who knew that Spencer Steer would turn out to be so tough at the plate? He would have been the Twins MVP and ROY. I never thought trading Steer was a bad idea because of the many players who looked like they would be better than him at the MLB level. I'm always curious to know how other teams value the Twins players. Julien might be someone who begins to hit .280-.300 with 60 XBH and 100 BB each year. A question for me is how to evaluate Brooks Lee as compared to Royce Lewis or Ed. Julien. Is Lee someone that draws interest more than Julien? We know how hard it is to find really good hitters but it is almost always the case that pitching is what drives wins. So difficult calls need to be made in transactions. My belief is that a productive Logan Gilbert or George Kirby or Bryce Miller are needed more than one of the solid young Twin bats. Then again, perhaps it is time to trust that Louie Varland is ready for a full season in the starting rotation. I guess that Lewis and Jenkins should be put aside in conversations but all others should be on the table. The goal is always the same - improve the roster. Sorry for rambling.

Is it fair to say that many were shocked and a few quite angry when the Twins traded Luis Arraez? The overriding question is how do the Twins improve their team. Trades have been a preferred path compared to the free agent market.

Doubt whether Luplow, De Leon, Stevenson, Ortega, or Henriquez have 40 person spots. Gordon is iffy but I think he stays. Alcala and Moran are also iffy but with options and have shown some promise. Balazovic has done nothing to earn a spot on the roster really. He hasn't looked composed or effective with any consistency to even be mediocre. However, I think he stays until later additions bump him.

True. Love Goldy. He also has a no trade contract and has specifically stated his intent to stay in St. Louis. It's a great baseball town. I'm a little perplexed why folks keep suggesting trades of players with NTC who have also explicitly stated their wishes.

Like the idea of getting a good starting pitcher via trade. You also make a fair argument about selling high. Others have already mentioned looking to trade guys like Wallner or Julien because they believe their value is too high right now. Not me. There is going to be disagreements (naturally) with the players you featured, which is a good part of any discussion. There will also be some contention with a couple of other things. The post is a great thought though and may spur some thoughts. First, I get that BTV is fun in a way. I have looked at it too. We went over a number of examples last year where it was shown how preposterous some trades can be using the values set by that site. So I will continue to look at BTV once in a while for fun but I'm not taking much value from it. Secondly, it is important to attempt to understand more or less what another team wants in players that would improve their team. This is complicated to an extent. Miami wants a catcher and may part with a pretty good package for Jeffers. Do the Twins do that? Cincinnati needs pitching and maybe an outfielder, so they are unlikely to trade a pitcher. Seattle is a real potential trade partner for the Twins but they want a starting player with years of control. I'm not sure Castro (a utility player) works for them. Larnach may be a player that fits as the extra guy in a trade but maybe there is a team who values Trevor. I love the process proposed in the post and feel that there will be plenty of options for difficult decisions in the offseason. Sometimes trades work beautifully, where both teams get what they want and make the playoffs as a result. Other times a player gets sent away in a move to strengthen the pitching staff where injuries occur and the player who was buried on the Twins winds up with more than 60 extra base hits on his new team. I am still in favor of pursuing Edward Cabrera and/or Max Meyer from Miami. Good post, I hope the Twins find a good trade again.

Expect improvement from both this year's rookie group and from the vets like Correa, Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton. Jeffers surely needs to improve his K:BB rate too. As mentioned, replacing Gallo and Taylor will also help reduce the strike outs. I believe the offense will be improved next season.

The Twins have specifically stated (recently) that Lewis is playing third base, taking ground balls at shortstop at times for practice. Everyone can forget about Royce Lewis as an outfielder, even if you think it is a good idea. Jose Miranda lost this year to injury. We cannot know to what extent he was ineffective due to injury. The 2022 Jose Miranda had a solid MLB bat with the ability to drive the ball for extra base hits and carry a decent K rate. A return to full force at the plate brings a fair option back to the Twins roster. Nothing will be known until late March.

This is a fabulous well placed understatement. Levine is virtually anonymous in Minnesota. I doubt 10% of the people who listen to Twins games even know who he is. His job has been completely stressless from outside public pressure. At most people who closely follow the Twins have referred to "Falvine" or made comments about Falvey and that other guy. Adler, Zoll, and Anthony receive nearly the same amount of notice as Levine. I don't say that to ridicule in any fashion but to agree that Boston would be an introduction to public pressure in his job. Thad has operated in the shadows and I'm sure he is respected or he would not have been considered for an interview. We should all wish him well and hope he is offered the job if he wants it, which he must since he interviewed. On a related note, I'm a little surprised that a team hasn't already offered Ng a PBO job considering her extensive experience and success in Miami. Maybe she just wants to retire.

Analytics have provided a ton of jobs for people and also drawn interest from multiple directions. The economy is good.

Really. I mean I like all of those players but if the team can be improved a trade can happen with some of those guys (Lee, Julien, or Wallner). I'm not expecting one of these players to be traded but it would not be a surprise.

I'm a big fan of OBP, whether that is via hit, walk, HBP, or error - just get on base. Extra base hits are very cool too. The three players who led the Twins in OBP were: Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. Solano and Jeffers were tied for fourth best on the team. Only five Twins had an OPS above .800: Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, Julien, and Kepler. Kirilloff and Polanco weren't too far below the mark with Solano the next best at .760. Only two Twins had more than forty extra base hits: Correa (49) and Kepler (48). Do we start thoughts of the team going with Julien (DH), Lewis (3B), Wallner (LF), Solano-signed to new contract (1B), Jeffers (C), Kepler (RF), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), and ??? (CF)? Personally, I'm patiently waiting for the Twins player who wins a Platinum Glove over several consecutive years while hitting over 80 extra base hits and over 350 total bases. How long until Walker Jenkins arrives? Actually, the Twins offense could be really good next year. However, there will be quite a bit on the shoulders of the three rookies from this year.

There is a consensus that hopes Buxton will return to playing baseball. There are differences to what extent. I do not know what is going on with all of his various ailments and I have empathy that Buck can only sit and watch. There is always the idea that Buxton has reached a point where highly competitive athletic activity endangers his future mobility and normal every day life. Perhaps Buxton has played his last game. I hope not but the lengthy periods of time where he is disabled does not square with my own multiple knee surgeries or the experiences of many others whom I have known. I'm referring to injuries and rehabs related only to competitive sports for some context. The bottom line for me is that I have no idea what injury Byron Buxton has and the many explanations do not connect with those many I have known that were labeled similarly to Buxton's injuries. Just good luck Byron.