tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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While I totally agree that the betting line is rolling back the same team, it would be a near first to have all 26 players be returning players. Seems to defeat the purpose of the TD GM idea as well as a bit of a down vote on all of the articles run on the site. However, it does look like a Falvey plan.
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TopGunn#22’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: TopGunn Shake It Up
tony&rodney replied to TopGunn#22's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Good job of creating some change. Dalton Rushing can hit, but he is still pretty rough behind the plate. There is promise there though. I'm more focused on acquiring one or both of Jeferson Quero and Kyle Teel. I would overpay for both. Luzardo has great stuff but the injuries have put him in a no box for me. I would enrich Miami's farm system for Alcantara though and maybe the Marlins like the salary relief if offered enough quality and quantity. Love O'Neill but wonder about price and his health. I'm ready for EmRod now. He is ready too. The Twins will play him or trade him. I'm playing him. Westburg was a guy I wanted early on but was a little concerned about his strikeouts, lack of walks, and speed. Still, he is worth acquiring. I would like to believe that Simeon Woods Richardson should be sufficient to return Westburg, but don't know where Baltimore gets a better offer. I enjoy reading other folks' ideas. -
I'm sorry to report that Roki will not be coming to play for the Twins. Maybe Romo is possible, but Colorado would want players they can use for their team. You are very happy with the current Twins roster since 23 of your 25 person squad is already in the organization. This is the consensus, more or less, on Twins Daily. Thank you for putting your team up on TD.
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I'm out on Luzardo at any price because of injury concerns. Falvey needs to find bats that can also use a glove when in the field.
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Miami doesn't need a guy like Larnach right now. I'm not sure why the Marlins would trade Mack when they are desperate for catching. Lewis for Luzardo might work, but maybe Larnach and Lewis for Bryce Miller works too. I cannot envision Falvey trading Royce Lewis. Could a Julien, Charlee Soto, and Billy Amick for Luzardo be fair?
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- jesus luzardo
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Yah, my point is a little raw but at some point the Twins will need to put players on the field who can turn routine grounders and fly balls into outs. The defense last summer was not major league and the results were inevitable from my seat and yet a fair number of people pointed to the pitchers who too often just threw double play ground balls and pop ups marked as singles and doubles on the official scorecard.
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Morris is an uncomfortable plate appearance for hitters. He doesn't wow anyone with his velocity or make pitches where batters look totally foolish. Morris was a guy I tuned into early in 2024 to watch him pitch. What I saw was someone who totally controlled most of the opponents. Yes, there is a distinct slider and cutter variance. The delivery is what sets Morris apart from his peers though. The batter doesn't seem to pick up the pitches and as a result the contact is usually poor. Quite a few guys shake their heads after meekly making an out or wondering how they swung through a pitch. I'm thinking Morris just needs to continue working on his command and control which is already pretty good. At some point in 2025, we should all get to see how MLB batters fare versus Morris. I see all of Festa, Matthews, and Morris as solid MLB starting pitchers once they gain a little experience.
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Jenkins still needs to navigate AA and AAA. He will almost certainly play right field, maybe left. EmRod will either bust or flourish. He doesn't need any more time to develop. He can hit MLB pitching now and will need to make adjustments as a Twin. Because of the wide variance of outcomes for Emmanuel, he is a very controversial player. I wonder if the Twins will become skittish about EmRod and wind up trading him this winter. I also wonder whether this might be the case with Luke Keaschall too. I would keep both. On the other hand, I think Jenkins just needs repetitions / experience and will possibly debut sometime in 2026.
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Jose Rodriguez is not a very accomplished outfielder but still working on his skills. If you are referencing Emmanuel Rodriguez you have evidenced zero knowledge of his talent with the glove. I have seen him play dozens of times but will simply refer you to Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs. Helman is a useful player. I could easily see him making the Twins squad in a utility role.
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Yandy Diaz, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Campusano can all hit if they are healthy and on their game. It is a ton of offense. Falvey, and most of Twins Daily, love an offense first roster. However, that is a significant number of DH's for one team to carry. They would all need to OPS near .900 to cover for their stationary poses on defense. The bench looks fair though. Maybe Castro, Rosario, and Pham still are prime utility players. I can see that. The Twins dealt a promising pitcher, Chase Petty, for Sonny Gray. I'm not sure why guys like Adrian Bohorquez and Eduardo Beltre or more gets moved for Yandy Diaz? Interesting to read these guesses at roster builds. We are all just thrashing in the winter winds looking for a recipe that brings success to Target Field.
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3ToedSloth’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint:
tony&rodney replied to 3ToedSloth's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
23 years of control versus 2 years and with a team in the division makes this a tough trade. The White Sox would probably want Jenkins or EmRod instead of three pitchers. The Sox have some pretty good pitching prospects and young guys who were in MLB last summer. I, too, like Emmanuel on the MLB roster. -
Agree. Is it possible to move Dobnak via the international bonus money? Personally, I keep the guy unless something easy pops up, which is tough to imagine right now.
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Interesting trades. I like #1-4 and #7. I would think they are possible too, which may not be the case in some of the roster guesses. I can see Goldschmidt at 1B. My only question with your team is using both Larnach and Wallner in the outfield and having Lewis at 2B. All three could certainly play those positions, but I think they would need to OPS over .900 to make up for the missed plays. I would choose one to hold down a spot. However, Twins Daily agrees with you. Good job on this roster.
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tony&rodney’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Take 2
tony&rodney replied to tony&rodney's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Thanks. I agree the Twins are unlikely to invest in both Lopez and Alcantara, but they can if they want to win. Do you believe Miami see promise in the bodies going their way? If I'm the Marlins GM, I see a stronger future with Soto and the others. Perhaps ask for Kaelen Culpepper or Yasser Mercedes. Falvey needs to try something. Every single time I put the current team together I see another ground ball roll through the infield or a fly ball evade our left fielders. I like see everyone's ideas though. -
tony&rodney’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Take 2
tony&rodney replied to tony&rodney's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yah, seems like Teel might be off limits .... unless ..... Pablo Lopez for Kyle Teel? The Red Sox won't get a better pitcher for the next three years at his price. Or maybe the Twins push for Quero and roll with their catchers now until Quero proves himself ready? My original thought is to push hard to trade for both Teel and Quero. -
Focus is to improve the defense. A deal to acquire a catcher must be accomplished before either Vazquez or Jeffers are moved. I list a trade of Brooks Lee for Jeferson Quero below but that can easily be reversed, putting Lee at 3B and Lawler at AAA. Although most are skittish about whether EmRod is ready, he is a now or never talent; play him or trade him. I also am thinking that Luke Keaschall is close to ready despite his short time as a pro. Trades: 1.) Brooks Lee to Milwaukee for catcher Jeferson Quero, should help both teams. 2.) Jose Miranda, Charlee Soto, Chris Paddack, Billy Amick, and Gabriel Gonzalez to Miami for starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara. Marlins get 2 players to for now and 3 for the future. Miami may choose any one of Miranda, Julien, Larnach, or Martin. I wrote down Miranda because he has the highest value for the Marlins. 3.) Jhoan Duran, Justin Topa, and Kyle DeFarge to Arizona for Jordan Lawler, a gamble for both teams. 4.) Simeon Woods Richardson and Willi Castro to Boston for catcher Kyle Teel. 5.) Christian Vazquez plus $3.75 in international bonus money to San Diego for a PTBNL. Potentially, Dobnak can be traded in a similar type of move. The tool does not allow us to delete Dobnak's salary. I'm above budget. 6.) Sign FA infielder Jose Iglesias for 1/$4M. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) 2B: Jose Iglesias ($4.00M) 3B: Jordan Lawler ($0.76M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.33M) LF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.76M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.15M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.78M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. ($0.76M) Utility: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.76M) Backup C: Kyle Teel ($0.76M) NA: Kyle Farmer buyout ($0.25M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Sandy Alcantara ($17.33M) SP5: David Festa ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.78M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.78M) RP: Brent Headrick ($0.76M) RP: Michael Tonkin ($1.55M) NA: Jay Jackson buyout ($0.20M) Payroll is 0.85% under budget
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What Did Michael Tonkin Ever Do to You?
tony&rodney replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I believe you are correct. My own shabby first attempt at a roster forgot to add him and I actually meant to include him but just absent-mindedly put two LH relievers down. Tonkin goes on the next form. -
bean5302's 2024-2025 Twins Offseason Plan
tony&rodney commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
Curious if you read anything that suggests that Arizona would trade Moreno or that Seattle would trade Robles? The D-backs are fighting money woes, which means taking on Lopez seems iffy. Seattle dumped Topa already for obvious reasons, health. I'm also wondering why the Mariners want a DH? The plans written this offseason face stiff challenges. I still cannot figure out 2B, but would move Lewis to 1B in hopes he can pick it up adequately. I like your plan ideas but cannot imagine those trades going through or that the Twins can continue to roll with poor infield defense. -
The problem for this roster is similar to many, poor defense at 5 positions with maybe one plus and two average defenders. No player to back up Correa might be a disaster. A ground ball pitcher with that infield won't make it to June. To be fair, everyone who believes that catching the ball is remotely important is struggling to put together a roster. The payroll is less of a problem than finding infielders and outfielders to turn routine plays into outs. Those who are hoping that the situation miraculously changes using the current roster are finding increasingly creative means to justify their stances, which is natural and understandable. The future is unknown and rolling back a largely similar roster faces long odds versus improved AL Central foes. Nevertheless, as Twins fans, we pick our team to win the World Series in 2025.
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Enjoyed watching his plate appearances last summer. There is talent there. The size creates a few challenges but the next two years should answer the questions. Winokur is a player worth tuning in to watch whenever his teams play. In my opinion, there was sufficient progress last summer and the comparison to Elly isn't as wild as it first seems. For those who have only read about Winokur, you can catch his games via milb.com. It is well worth it. I thought Winokur was among the top five position players worth watching last summer. The players I most often sought out were: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Carson McCusker, Luke Keaschall, and Brandon Winokur.
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The idea of trading international bonus money is interesting, especially as a way to move two guys who have some, but limited, value to the 2025 Twins. While I'm of the belief that the Twins need to keep several million for signing a number of players, there are bound to be a few teams very interested in accumulating the pool numbers. San Diego seems like an obvious choice. Reducing Vazquez and Dobnak may be possible in this manner.
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This iteration of the roster makes the team more defensively oriented with speed and a youth focus. I really wish that Royce Lewis could play 3B or 2B, but I haven't seen any evidence of that yet. Perhaps I reconsider and retrench with another guess that uses Lewis elsewhere. I put Eeles at 2B as a hope because I'm not sold on the other options but trade #4b gives me a defender there. Although most are skittish about whether EmRod is ready, he is a now or never talent; play him or trade him. I also am thinking that Luke Keaschall is close to ready despite his short time as a pro. The payroll is nearly $20 million higher than my first roster, which can essentially be accomplished by subbing in trade #4b for #4a. Potentially, the Twins could trade either Vazquez or Jeffers to reduce payroll costs. Trades: #1 Brooks Lee to Milwaukee for catcher Jeferson Quero (should help both teams); #2 Jose Miranda, Charlee Soto, Chris Paddack, Billy Amick, and Gabriel Gonzalez to Miami for starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (Marlins get players to play now and for future); #3 Jhoan Duran, Justin Topa, and Kyle DeFarge to Arizona for Jordan Lawler (a gamble); #4a Simeon Woods Richardson and Willi Castro to Boston for catcher Kyle Teel; or #4b Pablo Lopez and Willi Castro to Boston for Kyle Teel and Ceddanne Rafaela. (Boston should like trade #4a because they still can sign another SP. Perhaps Vazquez goes too plus $5M). People who are afraid of too many rookies will dislike this roster, but the Twins have a pile of near rookies (less than 600 PA) already and the new guys above are better defensively. SS, CF, catching future, and starting pitching are covered. The challenge we face is in guessing whether another team will accept a trade. I really like some ideas that have been promoted but many seemed too much in favor of the Twins. I'm trying to fit Royce Lewis at 2B or 3B, in a different grouping. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) 2B: Payton Eeles ($0.76M) 3B: Jordan Lawler ($0.76M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.33M) LF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.76M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.15M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.78M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. ($0.76M) Utility: Edouard Julien ($0.78M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.76M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) NA: Kyle Farmer buyout ($0.25M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Sandy Alcantara ($17.25M) SP5: David Festa ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.78M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.78M) RP: Ronnie Henriquez ($0.76M) RP: Brent Headrick ($0.76M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.76M) NA: Jay Jackson buyout ($0.20M) Payroll is 2.99% over budget
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Moves can be made, this we know. However, before the Twins trade either of Jeffers or Vazquez another catcher must already be in place. It is worth noting that catcher is a tough spot to fill and the Twins have skated by the last two years with fair results and good health from their catchers. While Vazquez may not be easy to move in a transaction, there would be significant interest in Jeffers from a number of teams.

