tony&rodney

Too much focus on the payroll and the Pohlad's role in shaping a team versus the opportunities for Falvey. The Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez trade was quite a gamble for Falvey and the Twins. That trade could have gone bad quickly if Lopez ruins his arm. The Mahle trade was a horse of a different color. Fans liked the trade because it was a statement that the Twins were trying to win. However, that 2022 team was going nowhere and it turned out to that Falvey lost that gamble. This offseason Falvey had a few opportunities for a bigger gamble and he decided to hold the big chips. That's the way that PBO's and GM's win and lose their jobs. It is a tough position (PBO/GM), which is why they make the big bucks. The payroll is fine and so is the team. The chance to make some gambles will roll by again.

Naturally (greed) I want both players on the Twins. There really isn't a position for Lee right now but if he forces his way on to the roster the Twins will find a position for him. I don't believe that health is as easy to predict as we all wished. Alex Kirilloff has had years ruined by TJ surgery, Covid, his wrist X2, and shoulder. That is a bunch of injuries. I don't know about injury-prone. Look at what AK did in 2018 and at how he dominated in AAA at St. Paul in 2022 and 2023. Perhaps Alex is healed and fully healthy. We will find out soon enough. For both now and going forward, an Alex Kirilloff who can get in his zone at the plate has the ability to hit for average and power on an every day basis. We may have subdued expectations because of the repeated time missed, which is to be expected. Like I said, Lee is real close and should be good, but he has never dominated like Kirilloff at the plate and still must conquer AAA. BTW - I believe Brooks Lee will do very well at AAA.

The injuries have really put a damper on the thoughts concerning Kirilloff. I do not expect AK to get traded this season unless some team suddenly and against all odds sees him as the missing piece for their team. I don't have a good feel for how Alex is with his wrist , shoulder, conditioning, and swing right now. When i think about the maximum potential of Lee versus Kirilloff in the lineup, I believe more in AK.. Brooks Lee will almost certainly have a strong career, hopefully for the Twins, but Kirilloff has a swing to really boost the lineup. Again, that potential has been muted by injuries up to now. I'm guessing the Twins want a long look before any trade.

Can Julien prove that he was underrated by playing a full season productively?

Just curious why you think this? Julien and Lee have more control financially. Is that the major piece in your thinking? I'm more of a believer in Julien than most and like Lee a ton too. Also I'm a little frustrated with how Kirilloff has had trouble staying on the field. However, in terms of hitting and holding down the middle of the lineup, Kirilloff has a far greater ability to achieve this task than either Julien or Lee. Can he? I don't know. But I think Falvey held him to see if he can do in Minneapolis what he did in St. Paul.

I'm wondering what team is going to trade a pitcher, the caliber of a Pablo Lopez, one for one for Alex Kirilloff? Even if the Twins add a couple of guys like Gabriel Gonzalez and Kyle Lewis, it seems unlikely to gain a Luzardo or Kirby type starting pitcher. Do the Twins really need to add more #6-10 starting pitchers? I'm not sure why. The thing about Alex Kirilloff is his ceiling. The injuries and his status as only having two more arbitration years mean his value is quite low. AK has one complete season, 2018. Take a look at those minor league numbers. Then when one looks at the 2022 and 2023 stints in St. Paul, we can see the possibilities for Kirilloff. Brooks Lee has a very bright future. Does moving him into the Twins lineup and removing Kirilloff strengthen or weaken the Twins? The Twins are in a difficult position with a full infield, some solid reserves, and a couple of decent guys stashed at AAA. That seems like a fantastic problem to live with unless Miami wants to send Luzardo or Seattle wants to give us Kirby. The chances for those trades are pretty much zero. Alex Kirilloff played with injuries and seemed ineffective last season but he produced pretty much in line with each of the trio of Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. A whole, fully functioning AK could really be a huge cog in the middle of the Twins lineup. I'll admit that when Alex let that double play ground ball hop over his glove against Houston, I was down on him. I didn't know his shoulder was that bad though. Injuries can decimate performance - witness Byron Buxton. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don'y make.

Martin has very little value in the trade market. Most of the conversation, which looks at Martin in a positive light, puts him on the team as a 26th player playing a utility role. These types of players are widely available. Alex Kirilloff, on the other hand, has a very high ceiling. His value is quite low right now due to past injuries. If you look at how he massacred AAA pitching playing for the Saints in 2022 and 2023 or what a full season (2018) of Kirilloff is, you can see the possibilities of a healthy AK. Miami isn't or shouldn't be trading pitching unless they get an absolute haul for Luzardo or Garrett. Think Lee and Lewis, which is a no way from the Twins point of view. Cabrera is out of options and an expensive gamble. Miami wants to see what Max Meyer can do for their team. I think the door is closed for now with Miami. Besides the Twins have a pretty good set of starting pitchers. Any future additions should be at the top not merely for depth. Sorry for a longer answer. The quick answer is that the Twins would have zero interest in trading Kirilloff now, unless a team wants to give up a Luzardo, Kirby, etc. in a straight one for one deal and that isn't happening.

A huge difference in the last 20 plus years is the publishing of data from various people and sources. Baseball teams have always kept data and used formulas, but it seemed like most of it was private. As a coach and when I played I used a whole (fairly complex) system of ratings that eventually were broken into numerical values to attempt to keep an objective idea of things such as fielding, running, batting, and pitching. These models were used for predictions, assessments, and devising optimum strategies. They were just my way of making sense of what was in front of me. The ability to make some money by putting together everything in a fashion that someone else could understand and use never occurred to me or others. I'm not sure anyone would understand the maze I created. I don't think I could simplify it. I think it might be correct to say that all of the analytics today give a more complete picture to a consuming public but it is the data and information produced from recent technology that has made a more substantial difference for players (trackman and that sort of thing). When managers used platooning and shuffled certain pitchers to specific roles in the bullpen 50 years ago, it wasn't just a hunch. There were systems in place. The change (my opinion) has been in the vast collection of published data which may be homogenizing how teams evaluate and use players. The one constant is change.

This is a fair comment. Kirilloff last had that many plate appearances in 2018. Take a look though and you can see what AK is capable of accomplishing with the bat. In both 2022 and 2023, Kirilloff destroyed AAA pitching with pretty delicious numbers. I can see the frustration fans have with Alex and Byron, but these guys healthy are prime middle of the order bats. Kirilloff tried to play through some issues last season before he was finally just shelved. It is a little interesting to know that AK did have more PA than Royce Lewis last year. Also, while the year was largely considered a loss for Kirilloff, his numbers weren't really that far off from the heralded young guns. The Twins could really use a healthy thumping Alex Kirilloff batting third this season. Eyes will be on him because his arbitration time is short. I half expected Kirilloff to be traded this offseason, but believed it would be a mistake to sell low. Finally, a healthy finely tuned performance from each of the four expected to fill the infield positions is one of the keys to a great run this season and their promise is likely a reason that Falvey decided to hold off on a big trade for a pitcher.

I remember that. I actually also remember my reaction, which was to say, "Shenanigans with words." DSP is (he is unknown to me in any other way) very unfamiliar or just plain clumsy with the English language.

When MLB expands, and in consideration of the enormous upfront fee to join the good old anti-trust club, it would be cool if teams could only protect 10 positions players and 5 pitchers within each entire organization.

Perhaps Carlos repeats his 2021 year.

Welcome to Twins Daily.

I saw that and wondered what the Twins were thinking as well. Infield repetitions are important early in camp because the players practice their timing, footwork, and cohesion on double plays, cutoffs, and the sort. It is important to have a player work on those skills for a solid week (muscle memory) before games begin. Outfield jumps/reads, communication, and throws (hit the cutoff) are more basic and a player like Martin can fill in with the needed outfield reps after getting down his infield timing. I'm a big believer in Martin as a strong and useful utility player. He plays well in numerous positions. I thought he looked really good at second base and in the outfield, but also played well enough to use at any other position. I guess the question about his arm will remain. The post that likes the idea of Martin batting leadoff with Julien behind him would be sweet. Martin can run, Julien will take pitches, and both take good at bats which is pretty important for any lineup and a real annoyance for pitchers.

I would go with the same 15 guys, perhaps swap out Jax for Canterino depending on what transpires in the 2024 season. Good list.

MLB has explicitly stated that expansion cannot be considered until both of the teams currently in Oakland and St. Petersburg have settled their stadium problems and are in their new locations. That is at least 3-5 years from now. I could see Manfred wanting to announce two new expansion teams at his final press conference in 2029. I would protect Walker Jenkins.

"What does ..... do to the Twins future?" If one has followed the Twins for years, it is reasonable to say that the philosophy has not changed and the future is largely unaffected. The Twins have made a few "splash" signings: Puckett, Mauer, Donaldson, Buxton, Correa, and Lopez to name a few. They also moved on from guys like Santana, Hunter, and Polanco. The team has never really seriously entertained signing a free agent pitcher of note, salary-wise. The 2025 roster payroll is likely to end up around $135-140 million, depending on factors that play out this season. Falvey will need to determine where the roster needs bolstering through inexpensive moves, trades, and use of the waiver wire - same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Falvey and crew are quietly being evaluated. The problem with going too far down the road with projections runs into the vagaries of totally unpredictable forces, such as injuries. For right now, the Twins look like they have the players in place to be a competitive squad. Despite my disappointments with how the offseason rolled out it looks like some good games will be played this summer.

FWIW, it seems like there may have been some double counting. The revenue pile is 48% of each team's monies is collected and then distributed to all 30 organizations. This means that one can only add 52% of whatever revenue the Twins created to that number. Factually, we don't know all of the numbers and frankly it seems like a futile task that ends in disagreement.

This is my concern as well. Add a player at the top if possible. To the ongoing numbers debate ..... a jharaldson has a post on the sidebar on TD that uses links and numbers to question the expected 50% of revenue for players idea. Essentially (read the post) the posts states that revenue sharing sends near $110 miilion per year plus near $90 million per team for national media deals. I don't check these numbers but perhaps someone has a better handle on all of the numbers. When one adds $200 M to a guess of $40 M for a local tv deal and then adds in the Twins share of tickets, the numbers don't seem to square up. Forbes (my simple opinion) is purely an entertainment magazine. We should expect businesses to operate for profit/gain in order to maintain employment and such. Pretty much all big corporations suck major money from the public in various formats and the public is nearly always happy to go along for the ride. Only the Pohlads CFO and a few others actually know the numbers and I'm not too sure we can come that close with our napkins. When Liberty Media took control of the Atlanta team and subsequently had to publicly report all of their financial information, it kind of exposed some funny numbers being reported by various media about MLB teams when the actual data was completely private. Having no control, I try not to get up in arms. The 2024 Twins should be better than last year's team.

"The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll." - from your post Your post and the numbers you used raise legitimate questions.

Yesterday on a Fangraphs chat with Ben Clemens a reader asked which team might crater in the coming season similarly to the Cardinals last year. Clemens said, the Twins, injuries could tear the team down. So it is out there. While I have suggested that Falvey mishandled the trade market (just my opinion - don't hate), I think the Twins should be a better team this year than last and win the AL Central again even if it is with fewer wins. Not sure who will be the 26th person on the roster, but it seems slightly possible that Michael A. Taylor returns. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Jair Camargo, and DaShawn Kiersey Jr. should be able to provide adequate depth in case of injuries. Might be worth a reminder that nobody really expected much from Wallner or Julien going into last year and Lewis was a question mark as well. A big question this year remains Alex Kirilloff. No doubt that injuries and regression could cause some angst this season, but I like the team. As always, the games need to be played for us to know.

I sorta remember who was out on Mahle, etc. My comment was only really for those who are suggesting that the money for Buxton, Correa, or Lopez is too much and curious whether those same folks had the same specific thoughts and comments in on Twins Daily back before and right after the deals were completed. It was a response to a comment down on the expenditures and made me curious because I don't remember many speaking against Buxton or Correa.

The numbers for those clubs may be sheer speculation, much like has been done (mol) on TD. The deal, (supposedly or at least as published) included a non disclosure addendum on spilling or reporting details for all of the teams.

In an interview, Lee said he has taken some ground balls at second base and played a few games at third base, but pretty much always has been a shortstop. I have watched Lee quite a few times (via milb.com), but it is much harder to learn anything about a fielder watching via tv than watching at bats. We can see quite a bit in every movement in at bats but are restricted in what we can see from a fielder. In fact, it is easier to see what an outfielder can do because of the angle of the camera than what goes on in the infield. Lee is projected by nearly every report i have seen to be slated for third base. The scouts suggest he can do a decent job at both shortstop and second base, but universally say his best position is going to be third base. This year should allow the Twins to see Lee play a position other than shortstop and determine where he looks best defensively. Playing in St. Paul allows for some of us to watch his game live too. Last year, I thought Lee looked fine but certainly not special as a defender. But as I already suggested, it is nearly impossible to make really good judgments about an infielders play via tv. Fair to say that Brooks Lee is solid depth at AAA right now.

My only question is whether you can pull up specific posts/comments where you immediately and consistently voiced your disapproval both before and after the Buxton and Correa signings? There were people who did not want to sign either player and said so. I was just curious. Or perhaps you meant that the numbers in those contracts reflect an outsized percentage of the total payroll. For example, I was completely opposed to trading for Tyler Mahle before the trade and especially did not want the Twins to send off Christian E-S. However, once the trade was made I thought that the trade reflected an attempt to make the Twins better and then supported that trade. I posted a suggested trade of Arraez plus a couple of others to Miami for Luzardo and Cabrera immediately after the end of the 2022 season. We are just fans and make our guesses.