tony&rodney

Enjoyed watching his plate appearances last summer. There is talent there. The size creates a few challenges but the next two years should answer the questions. Winokur is a player worth tuning in to watch whenever his teams play. In my opinion, there was sufficient progress last summer and the comparison to Elly isn't as wild as it first seems. For those who have only read about Winokur, you can catch his games via milb.com. It is well worth it. I thought Winokur was among the top five position players worth watching last summer. The players I most often sought out were: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Carson McCusker, Luke Keaschall, and Brandon Winokur.

The idea of trading international bonus money is interesting, especially as a way to move two guys who have some, but limited, value to the 2025 Twins. While I'm of the belief that the Twins need to keep several million for signing a number of players, there are bound to be a few teams very interested in accumulating the pool numbers. San Diego seems like an obvious choice. Reducing Vazquez and Dobnak may be possible in this manner.

This iteration of the roster makes the team more defensively oriented with speed and a youth focus. I really wish that Royce Lewis could play 3B or 2B, but I haven't seen any evidence of that yet. Perhaps I reconsider and retrench with another guess that uses Lewis elsewhere. I put Eeles at 2B as a hope because I'm not sold on the other options but trade #4b gives me a defender there. Although most are skittish about whether EmRod is ready, he is a now or never talent; play him or trade him. I also am thinking that Luke Keaschall is close to ready despite his short time as a pro. The payroll is nearly $20 million higher than my first roster, which can essentially be accomplished by subbing in trade #4b for #4a. Potentially, the Twins could trade either Vazquez or Jeffers to reduce payroll costs. Trades: #1 Brooks Lee to Milwaukee for catcher Jeferson Quero (should help both teams); #2 Jose Miranda, Charlee Soto, Chris Paddack, Billy Amick, and Gabriel Gonzalez to Miami for starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (Marlins get players to play now and for future); #3 Jhoan Duran, Justin Topa, and Kyle DeFarge to Arizona for Jordan Lawler (a gamble); #4a Simeon Woods Richardson and Willi Castro to Boston for catcher Kyle Teel; or #4b Pablo Lopez and Willi Castro to Boston for Kyle Teel and Ceddanne Rafaela. (Boston should like trade #4a because they still can sign another SP. Perhaps Vazquez goes too plus $5M). People who are afraid of too many rookies will dislike this roster, but the Twins have a pile of near rookies (less than 600 PA) already and the new guys above are better defensively. SS, CF, catching future, and starting pitching are covered. The challenge we face is in guessing whether another team will accept a trade. I really like some ideas that have been promoted but many seemed too much in favor of the Twins. I'm trying to fit Royce Lewis at 2B or 3B, in a different grouping. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) 2B: Payton Eeles ($0.76M) 3B: Jordan Lawler ($0.76M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.33M) LF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.76M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.15M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.78M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. ($0.76M) Utility: Edouard Julien ($0.78M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.76M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) NA: Kyle Farmer buyout ($0.25M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Sandy Alcantara ($17.25M) SP5: David Festa ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.78M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.78M) RP: Ronnie Henriquez ($0.76M) RP: Brent Headrick ($0.76M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.76M) NA: Jay Jackson buyout ($0.20M) Payroll is 2.99% over budget

Moves can be made, this we know. However, before the Twins trade either of Jeffers or Vazquez another catcher must already be in place. It is worth noting that catcher is a tough spot to fill and the Twins have skated by the last two years with fair results and good health from their catchers. While Vazquez may not be easy to move in a transaction, there would be significant interest in Jeffers from a number of teams.

Mayer has some skills and has status as a top twenty prospect, but he is not a target or a match for an arm like Pablo Lopez. Mayer is Brooks Lee with less experience with Mayer having a better shot at sticking at shortstop. However, the Twins have a shortstop and don't need to consider any trades for utility players.

Ryan is really good and inexpensive. The Twins could demand (and receive) a prospect like Kyle Teel. There may be more efficient ways to acquire talent though.

Teams move a guy to the rotation because of a need. I sense a lack of confidence among a number of people on Twin Daily in the starting pitching. Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson as a top five with Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya working in AAA to prove their worth until needed/called upon seems like a solid collection. Moving Jax to the rotation might make sense if the Twins trade a starting pitcher. Jax may prefer to start and this may boost his value to teams who are looking at acquiring him in a trade. As is, Jax would not slot in to the current rotation options, certainly not above the top five or six. The Twins need to be focused on adding several position players. As of today, only three spots in the field are spoken for (SS, CF, RF) with a collection of DH's to distribute around the remaining positions. The largest gain to the pitching staff, by far, would be to improve the defense behind the guys on the mound.

The Twins seem pretty settled with their starting pitching. There are some who have been somewhat dismissive of Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, and even more so for Zebby Matthews. Put just a couple of fair defenders in front of these guys and watch them flourish. Jax might be a candidate for starting but the Twins should value ($) him as a pen arm. I'm not too keen on this plan.

Last offseason Ober was predicted to be a reach for 150 innings. Despite being pulled early a couple of times, Bailey finished with 178 and 2/3 innings pitched, 24th in all of MLB. Additionally, Ober finished 5th in WHIP and #8 in BA against him. Ober had a fantastic year, is getting better, and has the easy delivery to deliver around 200 high quality IP per season. The price for Ober should be high, higher than Crochet of the CWS. Consider how Seattle values their pitchers.

I'm eager to see how Gonzalez has improved to show promise in 2025. The hitting was not such a problem last year but his defense was lower than late career Josh Willingham or Delmon Young. I don't believe Gabriel has any trade value but he is young and can turn it around with improved play in 2025.

Not a bad trade if the Twins are at all interested in upgrading the defense. How would a Duran, Topa, and Mercedes for Jordan Lawler look for you?

Mayer struggles with off speed pitches and while he is a top prospect he is also slow. The Twins need to improve in that area. Try to interest Arizona in Duran, Topa, Castro, plus $4M or perhaps Yasser Mercedes for Jordan Lawler. If Falvey talks with Boston his target is Kyle Teel.

Any trade or transaction has to be toward making the 2025 team better, potentially. A big question is certainly debatable - Do pitchers have more value than position players? How does a relief pitcher fit into an equation versus a starting pitcher? A couple of people have rejected the idea of receiving prospects in any trade. There are prospects that are questionable and there are more solid inexperienced players. How much separation, really, is there from Twins with barely a years worth of games or less and prospects? It feels like all of Miranda, Julien, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Keirsey Jr., and Martin are not too far from rookie or prospect status. Vazquez, Jeffers, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, and Castro are beyond the previous group, veterans. Is it unreasonable to think that prospects such as Jeferson Quero, Kyle Teel, Dalton Rushing, Jordan Lawler or a few others are not that much different than our shaky young guys? It sure feels like 2025 might be a time for the Twins to find a few athletes that they believe in. Playing only in a platoon doesn't seem like a genuine belief in the player. I would think the right moves can improve the team. While I don't see a good trade using Griffin Jax, that is more because of my preference for keeping him. A trade of Jax for Teel (mentioned above in the comments) plus a low lottery player seems beneficial to both teams, which is probably why that deal doesn't work. I like to hear what ideas people have for improving the team for 2025. I do not agree that rolling it back is a plan. I do accept that many folks truly believe in the current roster, as it is.

Both Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall may hit their way into the lineup. I'm quite curious to see what Payton Eeles shows in Spring Training. He isn't too young to throw to the wolves and his numbers from last summer are intriguing. Perhaps there is some attention paid to earning jobs. The Twins have experience at C, SS, CF, and DH. That is it. The players who show should get the opportunity.

who knows - this may be his expertise.

... little miscommunication here. I don't dislike anyone connected with the Twins ownership and office group and didn't suggest you like them. Rather I simply believe that the organization proceeds according to a plan and are as aware of all of the contingencies in the industry as they could possibly be. I don't see the naiveté or obliviousness. FWIW, I was not surprised by the $25M cut in budget from 2023 to 2024 and don't believe it hamstrung Falvey. I understand there is very widespread disagreement with that.

I understand that you have one view of Derek Falvey. You do a good job of defending his work on numerous occasions. My belief is simply that there is complete transparency between the front office types with each other and that Falvey has known all along since he was hired (day one) the guidelines and barriers inherent to putting together the roster. Falvey is the architect of this team. On numerous occasions Falvey has stated that he has been given all the resources necessary to do his job. We can say he is a liar or maybe just believe him. Would I prefer the barrier be $200-250M for the Twins? Yes. However, I am also aware of the competition in the AL Central and the Twins, under Falvey, have been funded adequately. You seem to think there was non-communication within the corporation, which is possible, while I find it unlikely. I would actually be flabbergasted if Falvey didn't know and understand all of his parameters. Let us hope for some things, whatever that may be, to happen where the Twins are watchable in 2025.

Lewis has considerable promise as an athlete despite his past injuries and halting development. However, it seems a little odd to consider Royce Lewis as a "core" player for the Twins as so many have already done. Lewis has not even played the equivalent of one season yet and he is a "core" player. 2024 was a bit of a nightmare for Royce as it was for Ed Julien. So far, I have yet to read an article or a comment suggesting Julien as a "core" player for the Twins. In 2023 Julien provided more oWAR than Lewis and we all know how much everyone loves stats. Defensively, they are a wash too. I do not hold out nearly as much hope for Julien as I do for Lewis, but feel the context on Lewis is more jacked up than he is. Those who are pumped about Royce can rest easy because Falvey will not trade his #1-1 guy. The article asked for any ideas of fair trades. Does anyone have one?

We might differ here. My take is that Falvey has always 100% known what budgets he has to work with on every occasion. Walking away from Sonny Gray was a Falvey baseball business decision. The Twins had the means to replace him via trade but chose to roll back their youngins. The Twins are likely to roll it back again in 2025. While I'm not opposed to the Twins running payrolls of $150-200M, that didn't ever seem like much of a reality. I get that some believe that the Pohlads crunched opportunities for the Twins, I look at the type of players and teams that the Twins put on the field year after year and the transactions they make as a Falvey thing. I would add that Correa was an outlier of unknown origin, perhaps BAM money.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. The concern for me is not any return at all - I would trade CP for a PTBNL. Looking at this from the perspective of another team, however, why trade for an oft injured player who is likely to peter out at 75 innings of 4.80 ERA at a best case scenario. On the other hand, some team is likely to believe that $7.5M may be a worthwhile gamble considering their needs. The Twins need to act fast.

Fair comment. I guess I am one person who believes that the Twins have sufficient pitching to compete. The weakness of the team is more the other eight positions in my view.

An examination of player personnel and their trade worth is always a decent exercise even if we know a player will not be moved. Royce Lewis was a hot topic last offseason and the potential return was high. Right now, Lewis would not return value in terms of MLB talent. Lewis might allow the Twins to gain a decent prospect, but that would seem foolish considering Lewis is still closer to a prospect himself with less then 162 games of experience. For the right player, sure. Falvey won't trade Lewis though. Who would I like to acquire for Lewis? Lewis for any one of Bryce Miller, Kyle Teel, Jeferson Quero, Jordan Lawler, and these types of players. Falvey won't trade Lewis though.

The Twins do have a number of talented players. The problem is balance. Additionally, the use of "core" indicates players that a team has and can count on to perform as regulars at an above average level of play. This probably needs to be examined. Core players usually would not include players with less than one season's games worth of experience. I do believe the Twins have talent. The question is if that talent can return a performance in 2025 that is an improvement on 2024. I'm not seeing it with the current 40 person roster.

Roque? Consider that Festa and Matthews are closer to rookies too with far less than a year in MLB. The pitching is decent.

The last few years it has seemed like the Twins team/roster was exactly what Falvey saw as an ideal. Yesterday, I hopelessly posited whether Levine actually had a role in the player talent collection. Alas, the announcement tells us that the Twins are Falvey's toy. For those who see Falvey as the cog, this is wonderful news. I simply sighed. At least the words directed towards ownership should be reduced as we now all can see who directs the franchise. I wish us all good luck.