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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    There really is very little question that Trevor Bauer is a low risk, high reward type of player. I don't believe the other players give a crap about any potential distractions from Trevor Bauer. They are actually grown adults. Ask yourself - why hasn't any MLB team signed Bauer? The pen is in the hands of corporate. What do you think the odds are?
  2. tony&rodney
    There are basically two directions to consider. In both cases I will say that I have zero knowledge to verify any potential actions. 1. The Twins have some financial flexibility and sat on it all offseason to see how things played out and can now make an addition if a player can be brought to terms. Jordan Montgomery has had two solid seasons. Perhaps the Twins agree with many on Twins Daily that he would be a good signing. I am not a fan of Monty. Bellinger had a pretty good year for the Cubs. Can the Twins outbid the Cubs and other teams? Do they want a Correa like deal? If the money is there, Belly helps. Snell has won two CY Awards. He turned down a pile of money from the NYY. Do the Twins gamble there? Hmmm? That is about it for free agents. Odorizzi? 2. The money squeeze is a real thing. A budget of $125 million would be an absolute ceiling. Bauer? Maybe the financial situation was an issue in making a trade for Burnes too. In the case of money being tight .... the roster is set. The Twins had some options in the trade market. The prices for a controlled inexpensive starting pitcher of high value was too much for Falvey to pull the trigger. The Twins chose to trade Polanco for DeSclafani, Topa, Santana (essentially - Falvey's words), and two lottery tickets (A ball players). A pile of relief pitchers are on the market this year and the Twins picked up a handful. So there we are. Either one believes there is a significant pile of cash available to make a deal of some sort or the offseason is over because there is only about $1-3 million still left to spend on the 2024 budget. But ... like i said at the top, I don't know anything.
  3. tony&rodney
    Well said and right on. When I saw the "expected" $170 million payroll figure last Fall from Bonnes, I thought "ok, what do i know. Maybe the Twins spend $150 million tops". About four days later after thinking about it for seven seconds I put out a team for $120 million because I saw $130 million as a ceiling. But then again, what do I know? The answer is straightforward - nothing. Aaron is best when he sticks to baseball. He has made me laugh and read his stuff since he lived on Chinese takeout in his mom's basement in Highland Park and was angry that the U of M didn't allow him to write for The Daily. Gleeman wrote what many Twins fans thought well before any baseball writers chimed in later on .... "Free Johan". Good times, good times.
  4. tony&rodney
    Sure, might as well trade Kepler for Soto too as long as we are having fun. Then, with such a call for Luzardo, just send Farmer and Vazquez to Miami. Offseason complete, unless Snell will sign a minor league contract with a camp invite. Maybe X (formerly Twitter) means something.
  5. tony&rodney
    Well, I tried to help you out by also including the detail and an explanation of the BAM money, but I'm not sure it stuck or was understood due to zero responses returned by comments, thumbs up/down, or whatever. The teams around baseball spent their extra money and moved on. I expected a budget of $125-130 million. Perhaps the ability of teams to keep all finances relatively private is an ongoing issue for many. I just care for baseball. I could care less for the owners except as a general "hope they are well" general thought. One thing that is bound to be true - if kids and younger people cannot turn on the television and watch a game of baseball - the audience for MLB will shrink eventually. A product that doesn't have a place in the market doesn't sell as well as one that is present and visible. For older people, such as myself, there is the radio or watching games the next day via mlb.com if the games are not available on tv. I don't need to see everything live, but I would bet the younger audience is less likely to have those habits. I wonder what the numbers show for radio listeners versus television viewers? The Twins can say whatever they want because they always do, but the media fiasco cannot be a sound business decision. A down season like 2022 might really punish the Twins at the gate and in potentil media deals going forward. But, like someone else has said, winning it all cures everything and erases every poor decision.
  6. tony&rodney
    Hmmm. Nick you do a really good job of supporting your point and I can see how one might see the additions this offseason to the relief corps as leading to a possible strategy change. However, I don't know about that and don't see it. From high school through any other leagues, teams use what ever combination of pitchers helps them to get the most outs. The major leagues have a cost-benefit concern which can impact how a team uses its available pitchers in addition to the limitations of talent within a system. The Twins had an offseason where the team took a step back on spending as did a few other teams. Relief pitchers were inexpensive to add. Does this necessarily effect how the team proceeds toward a goal of winning games? I think Seattle and Minnesota are similar to some extent. Each team has built strong bullpens that should make life difficult for teams to score runs. Seattle has the more heralded starting staff but Minnesota has a strong unit as well, perhaps just a notch behind the Mariners crew. Either way, the best pitchers on each team are the starting pitchers. The way to win the most games is to use your best pitchers to an optimum level to get the most outs. It would be unusual if the Twins or Mariners with their staffs were to restrict their starters from going deep into games when they are effective at gaining outs with relative ease. All of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Varland are capable of throwing 180 innings. Naturally, health is always a concern but this is true in the February workouts as well. Witness Verlander feeling a little punk right now. Neither Sonny Gray nor Kenta Maeda were particularly known as pitchers who would throw a pile of innings on a consistent basis from year to year. I would suggest that the Twins have great depth in the relief corps which should help the team avoid times when healthy bullpen options are limited. I fully expect the Twins to use their starters as much as last year if their health and effectiveness holds, which i speculate it will. The depth in the bullpen should protect from reliever burnouts later in the year.
  7. tony&rodney
    I totally agree with this comparison. The concern with Paddack, which was voiced by both Perkins and Hawkins in an interview at TwinsFest, is that his innings and outings need to be closely monitored for stress. Hopefully he beats the over/under of 120 innings, but the Twins will want him healthy for 2025 too. There will be times to skip Paddack in the rotation, but I do think he replaces Maeda very nicely. Quickly, I state my appreciation to Maeda for his outings. He was mostly very good but had less room for error when his control was off as do all pitchers with less velocity. Paddack has good velocity and we hope he has an excellent year.
  8. tony&rodney
    I'm not sure how to communicate with those who have so little faith in Louie Varland. He has a 4.40 MLB ERA. He compares to some extent to Bryce Miller with a 4.32 ERA and Bryan Woo with a 4.24 ERA, both of whom are seen as stalwarts after one season. I think I'm real close on those numbers. We can pick away at the differences but the main idea is that if a pitcher is ever to become a bonafide middle or even good backend member of a starting rotation, those guys needs to get the ball. Varland has the pitches, the stamina, and the work ethic to succeed. Anthony DeSclafani would fit just fine as a swingman in the bullpen. While teams need multiple starting pitchers during any given year, my pure speculation is that the Twins cannot count on Cleveland and Detroit to crater again this season. Last season, Mahle went down fast and Ober began his run of starts in late April. Varland does not need his innings monitored after reaching 150 in each of the last two years. The Twins best shot out of the gate is with their best pitchers.
  9. tony&rodney
    The answer to all dilemmas and worries is Louie Varland. I may be a voice in the wilderness but it has spoken.
  10. tony&rodney
    Doubt the Pohlads buy lottery tickets.
  11. tony&rodney
    This is so true which is why I had hoped that the Twins would keep Polanco. So it goes. I'm just hoping for the best.
  12. tony&rodney
    Varland is written in ink in the rotation for me. 180 innings of ball with somewhere in the vicinity of 4.00-4.50 ERA. He is in nearly the same spot as Ober was last year but the Twins do not have a Mahle this year. We each pick our guys, right?
  13. tony&rodney
    When I have listened to Julien's interviews in the past it seemed like he was surprised to be playing major league baseball. Most players have it in their heads that they will be stars some day once they become really good in high school, some earlier. Trust me, I have heard that from a thousand players. Julien sounded different in a few interviews since the end of the season. I think he awoke to the possibilities for himself. I'm thinking Julien could bust out in a big way.
  14. tony&rodney
    Actually, several people (including me) on Twins Daily were suggesting/ trying to pry Cabrera away from the Marlins the offseason before this one. The hope was that a blockbuster deal for Cabrera and Luzardo for Arraez could be done. Both players were not as highly thought of then, although they still carried a decent price. People also suggested Lopez but the consensus for many (influenced by BTV) was that the Marlins would want Arraez plus two more considerable pieces for Lopez. Most of my plans for 2023 centered on acquiring both Cabrera and Luzardo because I too believed that Miami would not trade Pablo. Shows you what we all know.
  15. tony&rodney
    I'm just wondering if you are jousting/playing the grumpy old man Gladden routine where he gets down on everything as opposed to the excited happy Gladden who loves everyone and everything? Gladden's two routines can be funny, in a way. Or, do you feel the Twins will struggle to be a .500 team? The post is on the starting pitching. Would you take the five starters from last year versus the five from this year? 2023 = Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda? 2024 = Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack?
  16. tony&rodney
    I think that none of the above may be your initial choice. However, perhaps you want Lewis in the outfield, so there - click that box. I chose none of the above because the logjam is not apparent yet.
  17. tony&rodney
    Cabrera was a trade I proposed last November, but I put him in the bullpen. He is out of options and a little shaky with his control, but basically unhittable when going well. In terms of coaching, I love the cool and confidence that Maki projects. However, we should remember that Miami is a franchise that seems to develop more pitchers than most organizations and certainly more than the Twins. It might be a stretch to say out guys could do what their guys could not accomplish. Still, sometimes an organizational change and some maturation wakes up a player and helps them to focus where before they had problems.
  18. tony&rodney
    These are likely ongoing front office debates. The cost ($25,55) of Vazquez, Farmer, Santana, and DeSclafani could perhaps be spent on a single or two better players. Sometimes it does seem like those smaller contracts will get cut off more. That said, the conversations may counter that a Hoskins can bomb or get injured which negates the ability to add those peripheral players who can be critical to a team's depth. Agree that Vazquez was added at a time of need at the price the market set.
  19. tony&rodney
    Just curious - did you see him play when he was in high school or later when he played for Auburn?
  20. tony&rodney
    I agree that Lewis will not be traded. Lewis would be the name in a big trade. I don't think the Twins should trade Lewis. This is why the Twins do not have either Kirby or Gilbert right now. They are not willing to trade Lewis. I agree with that, although I have hesitated and weighed the pros and cons many times. The Twins have one pitcher that is in their rotation who was developed in the system, Bailey Ober. It is now time to completely remove the limitations from Louie Varland. He belongs in the rotation. Furthermore, i believe he is a key to the staff. Why? Because Varland has stamina and can deliver 180 innings of 4.00 - 4.50 pitching. None of the others considered for the back of the rotation can deliver that production. Varland is a big reason I would not trade Royce Lewis for George Kirby. While Varland will not come close to being the ace that Kirby is, having Lewis at third base along with Varland's more than decent pitching for a #4 starter makes the Twins a better team.
  21. tony&rodney
    I'm a little confused as to the title of the post. National writers and various prediction engines (ZIPS, etc.) all predict the Twins to have a minimum of a top ten rotation. Going into last season, the Twins were not in the top half of baseball. If your starting staff this year has greater respect in predictions than the starting staff that started last year did, how does that equate to fallen? Might be a good idea to wait until the year is finished before we compare 2023 to 2024.
  22. tony&rodney
    The comparisons from the start of each season is a fair thing to do. You cannot compare how a pitcher X did last season to how pitcher Y did this season. This season has not been played. Pablo Lopez was an hopeful unknown last season, but he is now looked at as a potential Cy Young Award guy. Joe Ryan was looked on as a solid guy and he still is. Experience should mean he is better. Bailey Ober was seen as someone who could be counted on and now he is counted on. Louie Varland has pitched effectively but is still unproven. Sonny Gray was proven and pitched wonderfully. Chris Paddack closed last season looking healthy and should replace Kenta Maeda who entered last season in a similar position to where Paddack is currently. Anthony DeSclafani says he is 100% entering Spring Training as did Tyler Mahle last year. So there it is, apples to apples. Gray gives the 2023 staff a big win, Paddack/Maeda is a wash, Lopez, Ryan, Ober are a plus for this year, and DeScla cannot be any worse than Mahle unless he too goes down for the year. Final tally is 3-1 with 2 draws in favor of the 2024 starting staff. If you want to compare how each starting staff does, wait until November of this year.
  23. tony&rodney
    The answer depends on how you felt about the guys who left and whether you expected them (if resigned) to be better than what is present currently. Health is always the key. Pablo Lopez was pretty good last year. I hope he repeats. Joe Ryan had a good year but should be even better this season with experience and health. Ober should better than last year with more experience. Paddack should be good for 100-120 innings of solid pitching, enough to replace Maeda, who was good. Sonny Gray cannot be replaced. Mahle was a loss due to injury. I believe that Varland can be very good. In summation, the starting staff clearly needs to be healthy but that is true for every team every year. I'm as bullish on the 2024 starters as I was for the 2023 ones. I also think an improved offense this year should help the pitchers.
  24. tony&rodney
    None of Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, or Wallner have even one year at the MLB level. Lee (Happy Birthday to him) has just 168 PA at AAA. We are getting way ahead of ourselves here. Does anyone remember a player by the name of Jose Miranda?
  25. tony&rodney
    The lower numbers for Funderburk may well be due to uncertainty of his appearances/innings due to options. The same can be said for Varland. I'm hoping with the depth of the pen that the Twins choose the best pitchers for their staff. The Twins opened last year with Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Ober had a great camp but it would have been rare to choose him over a returning, healthy, accomplished veteran. That decision made sense. This is not the situation this year. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are the returning, healthy, accomplished vets now. That leaves two rotation spots. The Twins are invested in Paddack for the #5 SP position. He will need to have his starts and innings monitored. There isn't any reason to not make the #4 SP spot a competition in camp. The Twins should be playing to win.
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