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It was a light week in the Minor Leagues with most affiliates on break along with the Major League teams. Zebby Matthews' debut with the Saints along with a Minor League Player of the Week award for Luke Keaschall were the highlights. TRANSACTIONS Connor Prielipp was activated from the 60-day IL and is active immediately with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. RHP Kyle Bischoff and LHP Christian MacLeod have been transferred from Cedar Rapids to AA Wichita. RHP Ricky Castro transferred from Low-A Fort Myers to High-A Cedar Rapids. RHP Tomas Cleto reinstated from the 7-day injured list. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Pirates 6, FCL Twins 0 It was a tough game for the FCL Twins’ offense, which was only able to muster together two hits on the day, singles from Jayson Bass and Yilber Herrera. On the other side of the ball, poor defense plagued the FCL Twins as throwing errors contributed to crooked numbers in both the second and fourth innings, giving the Pirates three runs in each of those. On the mound, Anthony Narvaez allowed seven hits across four innings, striking out five. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Yankees 2, DSL Twins 0 (Top 3 - Suspended) Not much to report on for the DSL Twins, as rain suspended the game just as the top of the third inning kicked off against the DSL Yankees. In 2+ innings, Cristian Hernandez allowed three hits and two walks, contributing to three earned runs. WEEK IN REVIEW Triple-A: St. Paul Saints Overall: 47-48 (3-0 last week) Fifth place in IL West Overview: Saints came out of the break hot with a convincing sweep on the road against the Toledo Mud Hens. Zebby Matthews had a strong triple-A debut, earning a win after throwing five innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out six. Chris Williams tied Mark Contreras for the St. Paul Saints franchise career home run record with his 43rd blast in a Saints uniform. Williams was 9-for-13 on the weekend for the Saints. Anthony Prato connected with a career-high four RBI in Saturday’s 11-3 win for the Saints. What’s Next: The Saints return home for a six-game set against the Omaha Storm Chasers. Josh Winder struggled again for the Saints in relief, allowing two hits, while walking two and giving up earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge Overall: 38-58 (2-1 last week) Fifth place in the Texas League North Overview: Wind Surge rebound from Friday night loss with a couple of stellar pitching performances to take the series over the Frisco RoughRiders. Andrew Morris continued his dominance with an excellent outing on Saturday night, throwing six innings of one-run ball. Jordan Carr had a strong outing for Wichita, pitching five innings and allowing one earned run while striking out four. Luke Keaschall was named Minor League Player of the Week after posting nine hits, two home runs, four RBI, and four runs scored to go along with zero strikeouts in four games the week prior. He also participated in the 2024 All-Star Futures Game this past Sunday. High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels Overall: 51-37 (1-2 last week) Second place in the Midwest League West Overview: After trading a win and a loss on Friday and Saturday, the Kernels dropped their rubber match on Sunday to take a weekend-series loss against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Rubel Cespedes hit two home runs for the Kernels on Sunday in a losing effort. Cespedes was 6-for-13 with three RBI on the weekend for the Kernels. Christian Macleod was stellar for Cedar Rapids on Friday night, throwing six innings, allowing just one run, and striking out seven en route to a 2-1 victory. Darren Bowen struggled for Cedar Rapids, allowing five hits and three earned runs, while not getting out of the third inning. Ricardo Olivar also struggled, going hitless in 12 at-bats with four strikeouts. Low-A: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels Overall: 46-41 (3-0 last week) Third place in Florida State League West Overview: Mighty Mussels ride hot hitting and a stellar starting pitching outing to a weekend sweep of the Clearwater Threshers. Ricky Castro turned in a stellar start for the Mussels, tossing five innings of one-hit ball while striking out seven. Walker Jenkins stayed hot for the Mighty Mussels this weekend, going 3-for-6 with a triple and five walks in 11 plate appearances. Rixon Wingrove connected with two home runs, a double and a triple in 14 at-bats this weekend. Brandon Winokur had a tough weekend, going hitless in 13 at-bats with 10 strikeouts. Connor Prielipp pitched for the Mighty Mussels in a rehab start and threw two promising innings, only allowing one hit, while not allowing a run and striking out three. Complex League: FCL Twins 26-30 (1-3 last week) Fourth place in Florida Complex League South Yasser Mercedes had a strong week, going 7-for-13 with five extra-base hits. Bryan Acuna had a solid week as well, with two extra-base hits and two RBI across four games. Devin Kirby was a star on the mound this week, pitching 5 ⅓ scoreless innings, while striking out six. Dominican League: DSL Twins 17-16 (2-2 last week) 4th in Dominican Summer League South Irvin Nuñez connected with a home run and a double in just six at-bats last week. His seven total bases led the team. Alver Medina swiped four bases for the DSL Twins. Neftali Rodriguez finished two games for the DSL Twins this week, tossing 2 ⅔ innings without allowing a run and striking out four. PROSPECT SUMMARY #1– Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) – 3-6, 2 R, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 1 K #2 – Brooks Lee (Minnesota) – 2-9, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K #5 – Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) – 2-11, 3 K #9 – Luke Keaschall (Wichita) – 3-10, 3 R, 2 BB #10 – Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers) – 0-16, 2 BB, 10 K #11 – Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota) – N/A #13 – Tanner Schobel (Wichita) – 1-10, 1 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K #14 – Zebby Matthews (St. Paul) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K #17 – Connor Prielipp (Fort Myers) - 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K #18 – Yunior Severino (St. Paul) – 5-13, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K #20 – Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids) – 0-12, 1 BB, 4 K Hitter of the Week - Chris Williams (St. Paul) - 9-13, 6 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K Pitcher of the Week - Ricky Castro (Fort Myers) - 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
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It was a light week in the Minor Leagues with most affiliates on break along with the Major League teams. Zebby Matthew’s debut along with Chris Williams's record-tying swing were the highlights. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints It was a light week in the Minor Leagues with most affiliates on break along with the Major League teams. Zebby Matthews' debut with the Saints along with a Minor League Player of the Week award for Luke Keaschall were the highlights. TRANSACTIONS Connor Prielipp was activated from the 60-day IL and is active immediately with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. RHP Kyle Bischoff and LHP Christian MacLeod have been transferred from Cedar Rapids to AA Wichita. RHP Ricky Castro transferred from Low-A Fort Myers to High-A Cedar Rapids. RHP Tomas Cleto reinstated from the 7-day injured list. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Pirates 6, FCL Twins 0 It was a tough game for the FCL Twins’ offense, which was only able to muster together two hits on the day, singles from Jayson Bass and Yilber Herrera. On the other side of the ball, poor defense plagued the FCL Twins as throwing errors contributed to crooked numbers in both the second and fourth innings, giving the Pirates three runs in each of those. On the mound, Anthony Narvaez allowed seven hits across four innings, striking out five. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Yankees 2, DSL Twins 0 (Top 3 - Suspended) Not much to report on for the DSL Twins, as rain suspended the game just as the top of the third inning kicked off against the DSL Yankees. In 2+ innings, Cristian Hernandez allowed three hits and two walks, contributing to three earned runs. WEEK IN REVIEW Triple-A: St. Paul Saints Overall: 47-48 (3-0 last week) Fifth place in IL West Overview: Saints came out of the break hot with a convincing sweep on the road against the Toledo Mud Hens. Zebby Matthews had a strong triple-A debut, earning a win after throwing five innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out six. Chris Williams tied Mark Contreras for the St. Paul Saints franchise career home run record with his 43rd blast in a Saints uniform. Williams was 9-for-13 on the weekend for the Saints. Anthony Prato connected with a career-high four RBI in Saturday’s 11-3 win for the Saints. What’s Next: The Saints return home for a six-game set against the Omaha Storm Chasers. Josh Winder struggled again for the Saints in relief, allowing two hits, while walking two and giving up earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge Overall: 38-58 (2-1 last week) Fifth place in the Texas League North Overview: Wind Surge rebound from Friday night loss with a couple of stellar pitching performances to take the series over the Frisco RoughRiders. Andrew Morris continued his dominance with an excellent outing on Saturday night, throwing six innings of one-run ball. Jordan Carr had a strong outing for Wichita, pitching five innings and allowing one earned run while striking out four. Luke Keaschall was named Minor League Player of the Week after posting nine hits, two home runs, four RBI, and four runs scored to go along with zero strikeouts in four games the week prior. He also participated in the 2024 All-Star Futures Game this past Sunday. High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels Overall: 51-37 (1-2 last week) Second place in the Midwest League West Overview: After trading a win and a loss on Friday and Saturday, the Kernels dropped their rubber match on Sunday to take a weekend-series loss against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Rubel Cespedes hit two home runs for the Kernels on Sunday in a losing effort. Cespedes was 6-for-13 with three RBI on the weekend for the Kernels. Christian Macleod was stellar for Cedar Rapids on Friday night, throwing six innings, allowing just one run, and striking out seven en route to a 2-1 victory. Darren Bowen struggled for Cedar Rapids, allowing five hits and three earned runs, while not getting out of the third inning. Ricardo Olivar also struggled, going hitless in 12 at-bats with four strikeouts. Low-A: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels Overall: 46-41 (3-0 last week) Third place in Florida State League West Overview: Mighty Mussels ride hot hitting and a stellar starting pitching outing to a weekend sweep of the Clearwater Threshers. Ricky Castro turned in a stellar start for the Mussels, tossing five innings of one-hit ball while striking out seven. Walker Jenkins stayed hot for the Mighty Mussels this weekend, going 3-for-6 with a triple and five walks in 11 plate appearances. Rixon Wingrove connected with two home runs, a double and a triple in 14 at-bats this weekend. Brandon Winokur had a tough weekend, going hitless in 13 at-bats with 10 strikeouts. Connor Prielipp pitched for the Mighty Mussels in a rehab start and threw two promising innings, only allowing one hit, while not allowing a run and striking out three. Complex League: FCL Twins 26-30 (1-3 last week) Fourth place in Florida Complex League South Yasser Mercedes had a strong week, going 7-for-13 with five extra-base hits. Bryan Acuna had a solid week as well, with two extra-base hits and two RBI across four games. Devin Kirby was a star on the mound this week, pitching 5 ⅓ scoreless innings, while striking out six. Dominican League: DSL Twins 17-16 (2-2 last week) 4th in Dominican Summer League South Irvin Nuñez connected with a home run and a double in just six at-bats last week. His seven total bases led the team. Alver Medina swiped four bases for the DSL Twins. Neftali Rodriguez finished two games for the DSL Twins this week, tossing 2 ⅔ innings without allowing a run and striking out four. PROSPECT SUMMARY #1– Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) – 3-6, 2 R, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 1 K #2 – Brooks Lee (Minnesota) – 2-9, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K #5 – Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) – 2-11, 3 K #9 – Luke Keaschall (Wichita) – 3-10, 3 R, 2 BB #10 – Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers) – 0-16, 2 BB, 10 K #11 – Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota) – N/A #13 – Tanner Schobel (Wichita) – 1-10, 1 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K #14 – Zebby Matthews (St. Paul) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K #17 – Connor Prielipp (Fort Myers) - 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K #18 – Yunior Severino (St. Paul) – 5-13, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K #20 – Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids) – 0-12, 1 BB, 4 K Hitter of the Week - Chris Williams (St. Paul) - 9-13, 6 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K Pitcher of the Week - Ricky Castro (Fort Myers) - 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K View full article
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Full season Minor League Baseball returns tomorrow, but there was short season action today to dive into. TRANSACTIONS FCL Twins placed RF Gregory Duran on the full-season injured list. The outfielder has been injured since July 5. FCL Twins placed RHP Bianger Liendo on the full-season injured list. The 20-year-old has yet to throw for the Twins’ organization this season. Minnesota Twins sent RHP Zack Weiss outright to St. Paul Saints. Weiss was signed by the Minnesota Twins in February and has spent time on the injured list all season. After making a few rehab appearances the Twins didn’t have room on their 40-man and Weiss cleared waivers, accepting an assignment with the Saints. All full-season affiliate teams remain off today in conjunction with Major League Baseball, but both short season teams were in action. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Pirates 6, FCL Twins 5 Box Score It was a rough outing for 19-year-old 5th round pick, Dylan Questad, who walked five batters in just three innings, including four consecutive walks to start the second inning before allowing a two-run double to finish off his day before recording an out in the second inning. The Twins put up some runs in the bottom of the third inning thanks to an error and a bases-loaded walk of their own, followed by an RBI single from Dameury Pena to give the FCL Twins a 4-3 lead. In the top of the fourth inning, the FCL Pirates scored three more runs which proved to be the game-winning runs off of FCL Twins pitcher, Eduardo Soriano, who struggled with command of his own by walking three in the inning in addition to a wild pitch. Yilber Herrera connected on an RBI double in the top of the fifth inning to put the FCL Twins within a run, but the comeback fell short as the final score ended up at 6-5. DOMINICAN DAILY DSL Marlins 7, DSL Twins 5 The DSL Twins got the scoring start on Thursday afternoon thanks to a Luis Rodriguez RBI single and a balk, giving the Twins an early 2-0 lead. It was a tough start from 17-year-old Leonardo Rondon, who was unable to get out of the first inning for the DSL Twins. In 2/3 of an inning, Rondon allowed three hits and a walk to go with four runs (three earned). The Marlins quickly rebounded to a 4-2 lead after one. After tying the game in the second inning, the DSL Marlins again took the lead in the fourth inning, when Miami’s Adrian Bello connected with an RBI single off of DSL Twins’ pitcher Aiberson Ventura. The highlight of the game for the DSL Twins, though, was a first-pitch home run from Irvin Nunez to left field to tie the game. This marked the second home run of the season for the 18-year-old catcher. Unfortunately, the DSL Marlins didn’t wait long to get the lead back once again, thanks to a pair of Twins throwing errors that allowed the DSL Marlins to score the winning runs of the game, handing the loss to Neftali Rodriguez, despite not allowing a run. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day - Neftali Rodriguez, DSL Twins (L, 2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 4 K) Hitter of the Day - Irvin Nunez, DSL Twins (1-for-2, 2 R, HR (2), RBI) UPCOMING MINOR LEAGUE ACTION Minor League action will resume on Friday with all affiliates back in action: Saint Paul Saints: Randy Dobnak will take the mound for the Saints as St. Paul begins a series against the 42-50 Toledo Mudhens. Wichita Wind Surge: Marco Raya will toe the rubber for the Wichita Wind Surge as they begin a series against the 55-32 Frisco RoughRiders. Cedar Rapids Kernels: Christian MacLeod will pitch for the Kernals as Cedar Rapids begins a series against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: Ricky Castro will take the mound for the Mussels as they begin a series against the Clearwater Threshers. Leave any thoughts or questions below as we prepare for full-season Minor League Baseball to kick off again this weekend. View full article
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TRANSACTIONS FCL Twins placed RF Gregory Duran on the full-season injured list. The outfielder has been injured since July 5. FCL Twins placed RHP Bianger Liendo on the full-season injured list. The 20-year-old has yet to throw for the Twins’ organization this season. Minnesota Twins sent RHP Zack Weiss outright to St. Paul Saints. Weiss was signed by the Minnesota Twins in February and has spent time on the injured list all season. After making a few rehab appearances the Twins didn’t have room on their 40-man and Weiss cleared waivers, accepting an assignment with the Saints. All full-season affiliate teams remain off today in conjunction with Major League Baseball, but both short season teams were in action. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Pirates 6, FCL Twins 5 Box Score It was a rough outing for 19-year-old 5th round pick, Dylan Questad, who walked five batters in just three innings, including four consecutive walks to start the second inning before allowing a two-run double to finish off his day before recording an out in the second inning. The Twins put up some runs in the bottom of the third inning thanks to an error and a bases-loaded walk of their own, followed by an RBI single from Dameury Pena to give the FCL Twins a 4-3 lead. In the top of the fourth inning, the FCL Pirates scored three more runs which proved to be the game-winning runs off of FCL Twins pitcher, Eduardo Soriano, who struggled with command of his own by walking three in the inning in addition to a wild pitch. Yilber Herrera connected on an RBI double in the top of the fifth inning to put the FCL Twins within a run, but the comeback fell short as the final score ended up at 6-5. DOMINICAN DAILY DSL Marlins 7, DSL Twins 5 The DSL Twins got the scoring start on Thursday afternoon thanks to a Luis Rodriguez RBI single and a balk, giving the Twins an early 2-0 lead. It was a tough start from 17-year-old Leonardo Rondon, who was unable to get out of the first inning for the DSL Twins. In 2/3 of an inning, Rondon allowed three hits and a walk to go with four runs (three earned). The Marlins quickly rebounded to a 4-2 lead after one. After tying the game in the second inning, the DSL Marlins again took the lead in the fourth inning, when Miami’s Adrian Bello connected with an RBI single off of DSL Twins’ pitcher Aiberson Ventura. The highlight of the game for the DSL Twins, though, was a first-pitch home run from Irvin Nunez to left field to tie the game. This marked the second home run of the season for the 18-year-old catcher. Unfortunately, the DSL Marlins didn’t wait long to get the lead back once again, thanks to a pair of Twins throwing errors that allowed the DSL Marlins to score the winning runs of the game, handing the loss to Neftali Rodriguez, despite not allowing a run. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day - Neftali Rodriguez, DSL Twins (L, 2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 4 K) Hitter of the Day - Irvin Nunez, DSL Twins (1-for-2, 2 R, HR (2), RBI) UPCOMING MINOR LEAGUE ACTION Minor League action will resume on Friday with all affiliates back in action: Saint Paul Saints: Randy Dobnak will take the mound for the Saints as St. Paul begins a series against the 42-50 Toledo Mudhens. Wichita Wind Surge: Marco Raya will toe the rubber for the Wichita Wind Surge as they begin a series against the 55-32 Frisco RoughRiders. Cedar Rapids Kernels: Christian MacLeod will pitch for the Kernals as Cedar Rapids begins a series against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: Ricky Castro will take the mound for the Mussels as they begin a series against the Clearwater Threshers. Leave any thoughts or questions below as we prepare for full-season Minor League Baseball to kick off again this weekend.
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Four Twins hitters are performing considerably worse or better than their numbers. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Underlying statistics, particularly batted ball metrics such as exit velocity and launch angle, are far more predictive of future performance than traditional stats like slugging percentage and OPS. These advanced metrics help us understand the quality of a player's contact and provide insight into whether their current performance is sustainable. To determine which Twins hitters have been the luckiest and unluckiest this season, we’ll use two key metrics: Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA). wOBA captures a hitter's overall offensive value, while xwOBA predicts what a player's wOBA should be based on the quality of their contact (exit velocity, launch angle, and batted ball type). The difference between these two metrics can indicate whether a player has been particularly fortunate or unfortunate. Luckiest Twins Hitters 1. José Miranda wOBA: .353 xwOBA: .328 Difference: 0.025 José Miranda is coming off one of the best months of his career in June, where he posted a .940 OPS across 25 games. On the season, Miranda is posting career-high numbers in just about every metric. However, the advanced metrics suggest a dip in his performance could be coming. Miranda is currently hitting like a top-30 player in baseball with an OPS of .821, yet his barrel rates and hard-hit rates are only in the 50th percentile. While he has made significant improvements in his approach at the plate—lowering his K% and whiff%—his batted ball metrics still outpace his 2022 numbers. The reality is that the 2024 José Miranda likely sits somewhere between his 114 OPS+ in his rookie season in 2022 and his current 131 OPS+. 2. Willi Castro wOBA: .353 xwOBA: .332 Difference: 0.021 Willi Castro's breakout season at the plate is one of the most surprising developments of the 2024 MLB season. While he has made strides at the plate, luck has played a significant role in his impressive numbers. Castro currently sports an OPS of .804, ahead of the likes of Corey Seager, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson, despite having an average exit velocity in the 29th percentile and a barrel percentage in the 45th percentile. Castro’s luck is evident in his .356 BABIP, the fifth highest in baseball. Although BABIP isn't purely about luck, his career BABIP of .319 suggests a regression to the mean is likely in the second half of the season. Castro has certainly improved, but his underlying metrics indicate his numbers have been somewhat inflated by luck. Unluckiest Twins Hitters 1. Manuel Margot wOBA: .294 xwOBA: .344 Difference: -0.050 Manuel Margot had a nightmare start to the 2024 season. Through the month of May, Margot owned an OPS of .528 and caused many fans to petition for a DFA. The Minnesota Twins decided to stick with the struggling veteran, likely because they looked at his underlying metrics and saw that he was better than his numbers showed. Minnesota's patience with Margot has started to pay off as the right-hander has posted a .899 OPS since the start of June and is hitting like they expected him to when they acquired Margot this offseason. Even with his hot month of June, Margot still ranks out as the unluckiest hitter on the Minnesota Twins this season, and one look at his Baseball Reference page makes it easy to see why. Despite hitting like a far-below average player over the course of the season, Margot has batted ball metrics, like average exit velocity and hard hit % near the 50th percentile, not dissimilar from the likes of José Miranda. Additionally, Margot is in the 87th percentile for K%, with a career-low strikeout rate of 15%. Margot clearly won't hit like the .899 OPS that he showed in the month of June, but his underlying metrics certainly point to a guy with an OPS that starts with 7 rather than the OPS of .528 that we saw for the first couple of months of the season, and for a backup outfielder that's been solid on the base paths, that's a quality player to have on your team. 2. Trevor Larnach wOBA: .323 xwOBA: .361 Difference: -0.038 Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball. Larnach leads the Minnesota Twins in average exit velocity and barrels per plate appearance. He hits the ball hard (95+ MPH) 43.8% of the time and can hit tanks to all parts of the ballpark with no problem. With a hitting profile like that, it's surprising to see that he only has a wOBA of .323 and a solid, but not excellent OPS of .746. Larnach has a career-low BABIP of .271, though everything in his profile points to him posting an OPS in the 800s. Larnach has a career-low K% and career-best plate discipline numbers, he's just unfortunately ripping balls to the wrong spots. Like the example below. Did any of the discussed names surprise you? Do you think regression will hit all of the players listed? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
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Who are the Luckiest and Unluckiest Twins Hitters This Season?
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
Underlying statistics, particularly batted ball metrics such as exit velocity and launch angle, are far more predictive of future performance than traditional stats like slugging percentage and OPS. These advanced metrics help us understand the quality of a player's contact and provide insight into whether their current performance is sustainable. To determine which Twins hitters have been the luckiest and unluckiest this season, we’ll use two key metrics: Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA). wOBA captures a hitter's overall offensive value, while xwOBA predicts what a player's wOBA should be based on the quality of their contact (exit velocity, launch angle, and batted ball type). The difference between these two metrics can indicate whether a player has been particularly fortunate or unfortunate. Luckiest Twins Hitters 1. José Miranda wOBA: .353 xwOBA: .328 Difference: 0.025 José Miranda is coming off one of the best months of his career in June, where he posted a .940 OPS across 25 games. On the season, Miranda is posting career-high numbers in just about every metric. However, the advanced metrics suggest a dip in his performance could be coming. Miranda is currently hitting like a top-30 player in baseball with an OPS of .821, yet his barrel rates and hard-hit rates are only in the 50th percentile. While he has made significant improvements in his approach at the plate—lowering his K% and whiff%—his batted ball metrics still outpace his 2022 numbers. The reality is that the 2024 José Miranda likely sits somewhere between his 114 OPS+ in his rookie season in 2022 and his current 131 OPS+. 2. Willi Castro wOBA: .353 xwOBA: .332 Difference: 0.021 Willi Castro's breakout season at the plate is one of the most surprising developments of the 2024 MLB season. While he has made strides at the plate, luck has played a significant role in his impressive numbers. Castro currently sports an OPS of .804, ahead of the likes of Corey Seager, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson, despite having an average exit velocity in the 29th percentile and a barrel percentage in the 45th percentile. Castro’s luck is evident in his .356 BABIP, the fifth highest in baseball. Although BABIP isn't purely about luck, his career BABIP of .319 suggests a regression to the mean is likely in the second half of the season. Castro has certainly improved, but his underlying metrics indicate his numbers have been somewhat inflated by luck. Unluckiest Twins Hitters 1. Manuel Margot wOBA: .294 xwOBA: .344 Difference: -0.050 Manuel Margot had a nightmare start to the 2024 season. Through the month of May, Margot owned an OPS of .528 and caused many fans to petition for a DFA. The Minnesota Twins decided to stick with the struggling veteran, likely because they looked at his underlying metrics and saw that he was better than his numbers showed. Minnesota's patience with Margot has started to pay off as the right-hander has posted a .899 OPS since the start of June and is hitting like they expected him to when they acquired Margot this offseason. Even with his hot month of June, Margot still ranks out as the unluckiest hitter on the Minnesota Twins this season, and one look at his Baseball Reference page makes it easy to see why. Despite hitting like a far-below average player over the course of the season, Margot has batted ball metrics, like average exit velocity and hard hit % near the 50th percentile, not dissimilar from the likes of José Miranda. Additionally, Margot is in the 87th percentile for K%, with a career-low strikeout rate of 15%. Margot clearly won't hit like the .899 OPS that he showed in the month of June, but his underlying metrics certainly point to a guy with an OPS that starts with 7 rather than the OPS of .528 that we saw for the first couple of months of the season, and for a backup outfielder that's been solid on the base paths, that's a quality player to have on your team. 2. Trevor Larnach wOBA: .323 xwOBA: .361 Difference: -0.038 Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball. Larnach leads the Minnesota Twins in average exit velocity and barrels per plate appearance. He hits the ball hard (95+ MPH) 43.8% of the time and can hit tanks to all parts of the ballpark with no problem. With a hitting profile like that, it's surprising to see that he only has a wOBA of .323 and a solid, but not excellent OPS of .746. Larnach has a career-low BABIP of .271, though everything in his profile points to him posting an OPS in the 800s. Larnach has a career-low K% and career-best plate discipline numbers, he's just unfortunately ripping balls to the wrong spots. Like the example below. Did any of the discussed names surprise you? Do you think regression will hit all of the players listed? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!- 31 comments
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The Minnesota Twins had an outstanding offensive month in June, scoring the third-most runs in the American League. It was an excellent month at the plate for many hitters, but only one can be named hitter of the month. As June comes to a close, it's time to celebrate the outstanding performances by our Minnesota Twins hitters. This month was packed with exciting performances, but only the best of the best made the cut for the Twins' hitter of the month for June. Honorable Mention: José Miranda Stats: 25 G, .333/.388/.552 (.940 OPS), 9 2B, 3 HR, 20 RBI What a difference a season makes, huh? The José Miranda we're witnessing this season looks nothing like the Miranda of 2023, when he appeared in just 40 games and posted an OPS+ of 57. Now fully healthy, Miranda is showing that his excellent rookie season in 2022 was no fluke. Miranda just finished his best month of the 2024 season, playing in 25 of the team's 27 games, posting an OPS of .940 and finishing second on the team in RBIs for the month, with 20. Additionally, Miranda had the second-best WPA on the team for the month, meaning that he wasn't simply producing, but that he was producing in big moments. No moment was bigger than Miranda's massive three-run home run when the Twins were down to their last strike against the Rays, to tie up the game. The moment from Miranda might be forgotten by some fans due to the Twins ultimately losing the game, but it was certainly a moment that Miranda will not soon forget. Third Place: Royce Lewis Stats: 22 G, .259/.326/.624 (.950 OPS), 4 2B, 9 HR, 15 RBI For the first two months of the 2024 season, everyone joked that Royce Lewis would re-join the team in June and immediately start hitting home runs and dominating, like he has every other time that the superstar has re-joined the Twins' lineup following a lengthy absence. But even the most optimistic of predictions couldn't have guessed that Lewis would be this dominant after returning from his quad injury. In his first month of games following a two-month absence, Lewis led the Twins with nine home runs and posted a .951 OPS. He showed no signs of rust after being away from the game for so long, and until the last week of June, he had us all believing that maybe he really doesn't do slumps. Lewis's 2-25 slump over the last week of the month prevented him from finishing higher in the rankings, but the way he transformed the Twins' lineup the second he was re-inserted is something that should excite Twins fans everywhere. Second Place: Carlos Santana Stats: 25 G, .337/.396/.565 (.961 OPS), 9 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI After beating the Twitter campaign for his DFA with a solid month of May, Santana just put up his best month of the 2024 season, and his best month at the plate since August 2019. Across 25 games last month, Santana finished second on the team with a .961 OPS, while getting on base nearly 40% of the time. Santana posted 1.2 WAR in June, which pays for the $5.25 million contract that he was handed this past offseason all by itself. No moment for Santana was bigger than his pinch-hit, walk-off single in the bottom of the 9th inning against Phil Maton and the Tampa Bay Rays. Coming fresh off the bench with two outs, Santana laced a liner to center field, scoring Manuel Margot and clinching a win for the Twins in front of the Target Field crowd. First Place: Carlos Correa Stats: 25 G, .388/.441/.582 (1.023 OPS), 4 2B, 5 HR, 21 RBI José Miranda, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Santana all had excellent months, but no player on the Minnesota Twins (and no player in the American League not named Aaron Judge or Gunnar Henderson) had a better June than Carlos Correa. Correa led the Twins with a .388 batting average, 1.023 OPS, 38 hits, and 21 RBI in June, while also leading the Twins with 1.7 fWAR. In the 25 games in which he appeared in June, Correa contributed a hit in 17, with 12 of those being multi-hit games, including a five-hit performance against the Rockies on Jun. 12. Correa contributed some clutch hits this month as well, including a go-ahead home run against Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners in the top of the 6th inning and a 2-run home run against Sean Newcomb and the Oakland Athletics to put the game away in the bottom of the 7th inning. Correa is finally fully healthy and is showing just how dominant he can be when he has two fully-functioning feet, and it is an absolute joy to watch. Do you agree with the rankings for the Twins hitters of the month in June? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
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As June comes to a close, it's time to celebrate the outstanding performances by our Minnesota Twins hitters. This month was packed with exciting performances, but only the best of the best made the cut for the Twins' hitter of the month for June. Honorable Mention: José Miranda Stats: 25 G, .333/.388/.552 (.940 OPS), 9 2B, 3 HR, 20 RBI What a difference a season makes, huh? The José Miranda we're witnessing this season looks nothing like the Miranda of 2023, when he appeared in just 40 games and posted an OPS+ of 57. Now fully healthy, Miranda is showing that his excellent rookie season in 2022 was no fluke. Miranda just finished his best month of the 2024 season, playing in 25 of the team's 27 games, posting an OPS of .940 and finishing second on the team in RBIs for the month, with 20. Additionally, Miranda had the second-best WPA on the team for the month, meaning that he wasn't simply producing, but that he was producing in big moments. No moment was bigger than Miranda's massive three-run home run when the Twins were down to their last strike against the Rays, to tie up the game. The moment from Miranda might be forgotten by some fans due to the Twins ultimately losing the game, but it was certainly a moment that Miranda will not soon forget. Third Place: Royce Lewis Stats: 22 G, .259/.326/.624 (.950 OPS), 4 2B, 9 HR, 15 RBI For the first two months of the 2024 season, everyone joked that Royce Lewis would re-join the team in June and immediately start hitting home runs and dominating, like he has every other time that the superstar has re-joined the Twins' lineup following a lengthy absence. But even the most optimistic of predictions couldn't have guessed that Lewis would be this dominant after returning from his quad injury. In his first month of games following a two-month absence, Lewis led the Twins with nine home runs and posted a .951 OPS. He showed no signs of rust after being away from the game for so long, and until the last week of June, he had us all believing that maybe he really doesn't do slumps. Lewis's 2-25 slump over the last week of the month prevented him from finishing higher in the rankings, but the way he transformed the Twins' lineup the second he was re-inserted is something that should excite Twins fans everywhere. Second Place: Carlos Santana Stats: 25 G, .337/.396/.565 (.961 OPS), 9 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI After beating the Twitter campaign for his DFA with a solid month of May, Santana just put up his best month of the 2024 season, and his best month at the plate since August 2019. Across 25 games last month, Santana finished second on the team with a .961 OPS, while getting on base nearly 40% of the time. Santana posted 1.2 WAR in June, which pays for the $5.25 million contract that he was handed this past offseason all by itself. No moment for Santana was bigger than his pinch-hit, walk-off single in the bottom of the 9th inning against Phil Maton and the Tampa Bay Rays. Coming fresh off the bench with two outs, Santana laced a liner to center field, scoring Manuel Margot and clinching a win for the Twins in front of the Target Field crowd. First Place: Carlos Correa Stats: 25 G, .388/.441/.582 (1.023 OPS), 4 2B, 5 HR, 21 RBI José Miranda, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Santana all had excellent months, but no player on the Minnesota Twins (and no player in the American League not named Aaron Judge or Gunnar Henderson) had a better June than Carlos Correa. Correa led the Twins with a .388 batting average, 1.023 OPS, 38 hits, and 21 RBI in June, while also leading the Twins with 1.7 fWAR. In the 25 games in which he appeared in June, Correa contributed a hit in 17, with 12 of those being multi-hit games, including a five-hit performance against the Rockies on Jun. 12. Correa contributed some clutch hits this month as well, including a go-ahead home run against Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners in the top of the 6th inning and a 2-run home run against Sean Newcomb and the Oakland Athletics to put the game away in the bottom of the 7th inning. Correa is finally fully healthy and is showing just how dominant he can be when he has two fully-functioning feet, and it is an absolute joy to watch. Do you agree with the rankings for the Twins hitters of the month in June? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!
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We are about a month away from the trade deadline, and while the Minnesota Twins will surely be buyers, it might actually make a lot of sense for them to look at trading away their longtime right fielder. Here’s why. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler recently broke the record for career home runs at Target Field. He has been an important member of the Minnesota Twins and will likely be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame one day. All that withstanding, the Twins would benefit from parting ways with their veteran left fielder and trading him away this July as they prepare to make a postseason run this Fall. The first reason the Twins should consider trading away Max Kepler is that he is an impending free agent and will likely leave the team at the end of the season anyway. Trading Kepler could be a way for the Twins to recoup some assets for a player who will be gone at the end of the year. It's smart to get something in return rather than letting him walk for nothing (save for potentially a comp pick. More on that later.) Second, the Twins have plenty of depth when it comes to left-handed corner outfielders. Trevor Larnach is already a regular in left field. Additionally, Matt Wallner is knocking down the door to the majors with the Saint Paul Saints. Since the calendar turned to June, Wallner has posted a 1.190 OPS with 11 home runs and 25 RBI in 20 games for the Saints. Wallner outperformed Kepler in the majors last season, posting a .877 OPS in 76 games. Given how Kepler has looked at the plate over the last month (.179/.239/.274 slash line), I would bet on Wallner out-producing Kepler for the remainder of the season. In addition to Wallner, the Twins have DaShawn Keirsey, who is excelling at Triple-A with a .937 OPS in 48 games and excellent speed and defense. The depth is there, making Kepler more expendable. Another reason the Twins should consider trading Kepler is that it might be the only way to afford veteran talent at the trade deadline. The Twins' ownership group made it clear that there was a strict (self-imposed) cap on spending this offseason. It’s unclear if ownership will be willing to increase spending. Given the worsening television deal since the offseason, there's a decent chance they won’t invest more money into their contending team. Similar to how the Twins traded away Jorge Polanco this past offseason to bring on Carlos Santana, they might consider trading Kepler and the $4 million he’ll be owed over the second half of the season to either acquire a bullpen arm like Kyle Finnegan, for example, or make payroll room for another need. While Kepler could be deemed expendable by the Minnesota Twins, he would certainly bring value back to another team pushing for the postseason and looking to shore up their outfield. Kepler has a high-upside bat that we saw over the second half of last season, is a borderline Gold Glover in right field, and has the ability to play capable centerfield if the right team can convince him to do so. The left-hander is still just 31 years old, and as a guy who has spent the past 15 years with the same organization, they could certainly get a jolt in the arm with a change in scenery. A few teams come to mind as potential trade partners for Kepler. The Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves (sans Ronald Acuña Jr.) are both contending teams who could use help in the outfield and might be interested in Kepler as a potential trade deadline addition. The team that might make the most sense as a trade partner, though, is the Philadelphia Phillies who currently possess the best record in baseball and will certainly be looking to bolster their roster for a potential World Series run this fall. Despite having one of the best offenses in baseball, the Phillies have received poor production from their outfield, which sports the fourth-lowest slugging percentage in baseball (.357). Kepler would immediately slot into a corner outfield spot for the Phillies. The Phillies have the second-best fWAR in baseball from their bullpen, with plenty of depth that the Twins could explore a trade package involving Kepler and a Phillies reliever. Or, they could bring in a third team to complete the package. Or the Twins could receive prospects to help replenish their farm system if they want to "buy" from another team. Philadelphia has never been afraid to spend money and would have no issues paying Kepler his remaining salary and potentially working out an extension past this season. Trading Max Kepler would obviously be a big deal that would shock the Twins fanbase, and there are some clear objections that fans could have to such a move. First, the Twins already lack left-handed hitters. After sending down Alex Kirilloff a couple of weeks ago, Kepler and Larnach are the only true left-handed hitters on the roster. However, in the hypothetical scenario of a Kepler trade, the Twins would replace him with another left-handed bat in Wallner while still having Keirsey in Triple-A as the next man in line. Switch hitters like Willi Castro, Carlos Santana, and soon Brooks Lee give the Twins the flexibility to roster any number of righties or lefties without hamstringing themselves either way. Second, the Twins might oppose trading Kepler due to the opportunity cost of losing out on a comp pick should they decide to give Kepler a qualifying offer this offseason and he turns it down. While this is a real possibility, there is also a growing chance that Kepler is playing himself out of a qualifying offer altogether. After his hot start, Kepler looks more like the player we saw from 2021 through the first half of 2023 rather than the All-Star caliber player we saw in the second half of 2023. Lastly, a Kepler trade may not happen simply because this front office has shown how much they value what Kepler brings to the team. After three straight years of articles being written on trading the German right fielder, the front office has stood by his side. or at least demonstrated that they value him more than any offers they've received. The likelihood of them trading him now, in the middle of the season, just months before a potential final playoff run, doesn't seem like a move they would make. That said, this front office has frequently made moves people didn't expect and is great about keeping things under wraps. They could certainly surprise us all once again. While trading Max Kepler would be a shock to many, there are plenty of reasons for the front office to explore the potential of a deal. Trading away the slumping Kepler would clear the way for Matt Wallner, give the Twins an avenue to upgrade their struggling bullpen without sacrificing prospect capital, and provide a way for ownership to bring on additional salary without breaking their (self-imposed) spending limits. The move makes all the sense in the world. Would you consider trading away Max Kepler? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
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Max Kepler recently broke the record for career home runs at Target Field. He has been an important member of the Minnesota Twins and will likely be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame one day. All that withstanding, the Twins would benefit from parting ways with their veteran left fielder and trading him away this July as they prepare to make a postseason run this Fall. The first reason the Twins should consider trading away Max Kepler is that he is an impending free agent and will likely leave the team at the end of the season anyway. Trading Kepler could be a way for the Twins to recoup some assets for a player who will be gone at the end of the year. It's smart to get something in return rather than letting him walk for nothing (save for potentially a comp pick. More on that later.) Second, the Twins have plenty of depth when it comes to left-handed corner outfielders. Trevor Larnach is already a regular in left field. Additionally, Matt Wallner is knocking down the door to the majors with the Saint Paul Saints. Since the calendar turned to June, Wallner has posted a 1.190 OPS with 11 home runs and 25 RBI in 20 games for the Saints. Wallner outperformed Kepler in the majors last season, posting a .877 OPS in 76 games. Given how Kepler has looked at the plate over the last month (.179/.239/.274 slash line), I would bet on Wallner out-producing Kepler for the remainder of the season. In addition to Wallner, the Twins have DaShawn Keirsey, who is excelling at Triple-A with a .937 OPS in 48 games and excellent speed and defense. The depth is there, making Kepler more expendable. Another reason the Twins should consider trading Kepler is that it might be the only way to afford veteran talent at the trade deadline. The Twins' ownership group made it clear that there was a strict (self-imposed) cap on spending this offseason. It’s unclear if ownership will be willing to increase spending. Given the worsening television deal since the offseason, there's a decent chance they won’t invest more money into their contending team. Similar to how the Twins traded away Jorge Polanco this past offseason to bring on Carlos Santana, they might consider trading Kepler and the $4 million he’ll be owed over the second half of the season to either acquire a bullpen arm like Kyle Finnegan, for example, or make payroll room for another need. While Kepler could be deemed expendable by the Minnesota Twins, he would certainly bring value back to another team pushing for the postseason and looking to shore up their outfield. Kepler has a high-upside bat that we saw over the second half of last season, is a borderline Gold Glover in right field, and has the ability to play capable centerfield if the right team can convince him to do so. The left-hander is still just 31 years old, and as a guy who has spent the past 15 years with the same organization, they could certainly get a jolt in the arm with a change in scenery. A few teams come to mind as potential trade partners for Kepler. The Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves (sans Ronald Acuña Jr.) are both contending teams who could use help in the outfield and might be interested in Kepler as a potential trade deadline addition. The team that might make the most sense as a trade partner, though, is the Philadelphia Phillies who currently possess the best record in baseball and will certainly be looking to bolster their roster for a potential World Series run this fall. Despite having one of the best offenses in baseball, the Phillies have received poor production from their outfield, which sports the fourth-lowest slugging percentage in baseball (.357). Kepler would immediately slot into a corner outfield spot for the Phillies. The Phillies have the second-best fWAR in baseball from their bullpen, with plenty of depth that the Twins could explore a trade package involving Kepler and a Phillies reliever. Or, they could bring in a third team to complete the package. Or the Twins could receive prospects to help replenish their farm system if they want to "buy" from another team. Philadelphia has never been afraid to spend money and would have no issues paying Kepler his remaining salary and potentially working out an extension past this season. Trading Max Kepler would obviously be a big deal that would shock the Twins fanbase, and there are some clear objections that fans could have to such a move. First, the Twins already lack left-handed hitters. After sending down Alex Kirilloff a couple of weeks ago, Kepler and Larnach are the only true left-handed hitters on the roster. However, in the hypothetical scenario of a Kepler trade, the Twins would replace him with another left-handed bat in Wallner while still having Keirsey in Triple-A as the next man in line. Switch hitters like Willi Castro, Carlos Santana, and soon Brooks Lee give the Twins the flexibility to roster any number of righties or lefties without hamstringing themselves either way. Second, the Twins might oppose trading Kepler due to the opportunity cost of losing out on a comp pick should they decide to give Kepler a qualifying offer this offseason and he turns it down. While this is a real possibility, there is also a growing chance that Kepler is playing himself out of a qualifying offer altogether. After his hot start, Kepler looks more like the player we saw from 2021 through the first half of 2023 rather than the All-Star caliber player we saw in the second half of 2023. Lastly, a Kepler trade may not happen simply because this front office has shown how much they value what Kepler brings to the team. After three straight years of articles being written on trading the German right fielder, the front office has stood by his side. or at least demonstrated that they value him more than any offers they've received. The likelihood of them trading him now, in the middle of the season, just months before a potential final playoff run, doesn't seem like a move they would make. That said, this front office has frequently made moves people didn't expect and is great about keeping things under wraps. They could certainly surprise us all once again. While trading Max Kepler would be a shock to many, there are plenty of reasons for the front office to explore the potential of a deal. Trading away the slumping Kepler would clear the way for Matt Wallner, give the Twins an avenue to upgrade their struggling bullpen without sacrificing prospect capital, and provide a way for ownership to bring on additional salary without breaking their (self-imposed) spending limits. The move makes all the sense in the world. Would you consider trading away Max Kepler? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!
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If you asked Minnesota Twins fans about Aaron Sabato a year ago, you'd likely hear a mix of frustration and disappointment. The 27th overall pick in the 2020 draft was supposed to be a safe bet at the plate. He may not have had the upside of an up-the-middle, do-it-all player, but his massive raw power and a 6-foot-2, 230-pound frame to go along with his patient approach at the plate made him someone intriguing as a bat-first first baseman/designated hitter. Drafted out of the University of North Carolina, Sabato's college numbers were nothing short of incredible. In 2019 and 2020, he posted OPS figures of 1.149 and 1.186, respectively, and hit 46 extra-base hits in 64 games during his freshman season alone, boasting a slugging percentage that flirted with .700. Given his impressive college stats and an advanced age of 21 at the time of the draft, Sabato seemed destined for Major League success. However, his transition to professional baseball has been anything but smooth. In his first three full seasons in the Minors, Sabato's OPS languished in the 700s, and his strikeout rate was much higher than we saw in college, with strikeout percentages consistently over 30. The power-hitting prospect who once looked like a can't-miss player at the plate was now a shell of his college self, struggling to find his footing. The fall from grace was steep enough that the Twins opted not to add Sabato to their 40-man roster last offseason, exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. The potential for another team to snap up a former first-round pick was real, but no one took the bait, and Sabato remained with Minnesota. It seemed like the writing was on the wall for Sabato's career with the Twins, but things have changed over the past eight months. Sabato found his stride in the Arizona Fall League last fall, posting a .905 OPS with seven home runs in 18 games. This resurgence was no fluke. Sabato has been tearing it up in Double-A Wichita by carrying that momentum into the current season. Through 31 games, he has a .837 OPS with 13 extra-base hits. Since June 1, he's been even hotter, posting a .925 OPS with five home runs in 13 games. This is the Aaron Sabato we've been waiting for. Adding to the optimism, in Triple-A this season, Sabato has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26.9%—a massive improvement after posting seasons in the 30s every year since being drafted. Sabato is pulling the ball more than he ever has before, now doing so 54% of the time, helping him drive the ball more than he has in previous seasons. At 25, Sabato may have passed the prime window to be considered a top prospect, but that doesn't mean his value is gone. He still possesses the first-round pedigree, the ability to get on base at a solid 34% rate, and, most importantly, the raw power that every team in the MLB covets. His recent performance should prompt the Twins to reconsider their stance on him. The Twins must decide whether to add Sabato to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. While leaving him off last year was an easy choice given his struggles, his performance this year makes that decision much harder. Sabato will soon earn a promotion to Triple-A, where the Twins can better understand his readiness for the big leagues. Sabato will likely never live up to his first-round draft selection, where he was taken four years ago. He may never even end up being a full-time Major League Baseball player. But if we have seen anything from the Minnesota Twins this season, you can never have too many bats in your organization to call up, especially ones with the pop that Sabato presents. And with many of the Twins up and coming players coming from the left side of the plate (Emmanuel Rodriguez, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien), a player with Sabato's bat to come up even as a platoon first baseman/designated hitter is something of value. Power-hitting bats are always in demand, and Sabato's resurgence suggests he could still fill that role, even if in a limited capacity. The journey hasn't been easy, and Sabato still may never make it to the Big Leagues with the Twins, but his performance this season has given the Twins a reason to see what they have in their former first rounder. There's still plenty of reason to believe in Aaron Sabato. Do you still believe in Aaron Sabato as a prospect for the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!
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Once a promising prospect, Aaron Sabato fell off of everyone’s radar following three disappointing Minor League seasons. After a strong showcase in the Arizona Fall League and a promising start to his Minor League season in 2024, Sabato is showing why we shouldn’t give up on him yet. Image courtesy of William Parmeter If you asked Minnesota Twins fans about Aaron Sabato a year ago, you'd likely hear a mix of frustration and disappointment. The 27th overall pick in the 2020 draft was supposed to be a safe bet at the plate. He may not have had the upside of an up-the-middle, do-it-all player, but his massive raw power and a 6-foot-2, 230-pound frame to go along with his patient approach at the plate made him someone intriguing as a bat-first first baseman/designated hitter. Drafted out of the University of North Carolina, Sabato's college numbers were nothing short of incredible. In 2019 and 2020, he posted OPS figures of 1.149 and 1.186, respectively, and hit 46 extra-base hits in 64 games during his freshman season alone, boasting a slugging percentage that flirted with .700. Given his impressive college stats and an advanced age of 21 at the time of the draft, Sabato seemed destined for Major League success. However, his transition to professional baseball has been anything but smooth. In his first three full seasons in the Minors, Sabato's OPS languished in the 700s, and his strikeout rate was much higher than we saw in college, with strikeout percentages consistently over 30. The power-hitting prospect who once looked like a can't-miss player at the plate was now a shell of his college self, struggling to find his footing. The fall from grace was steep enough that the Twins opted not to add Sabato to their 40-man roster last offseason, exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. The potential for another team to snap up a former first-round pick was real, but no one took the bait, and Sabato remained with Minnesota. It seemed like the writing was on the wall for Sabato's career with the Twins, but things have changed over the past eight months. Sabato found his stride in the Arizona Fall League last fall, posting a .905 OPS with seven home runs in 18 games. This resurgence was no fluke. Sabato has been tearing it up in Double-A Wichita by carrying that momentum into the current season. Through 31 games, he has a .837 OPS with 13 extra-base hits. Since June 1, he's been even hotter, posting a .925 OPS with five home runs in 13 games. This is the Aaron Sabato we've been waiting for. Adding to the optimism, in Triple-A this season, Sabato has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26.9%—a massive improvement after posting seasons in the 30s every year since being drafted. Sabato is pulling the ball more than he ever has before, now doing so 54% of the time, helping him drive the ball more than he has in previous seasons. At 25, Sabato may have passed the prime window to be considered a top prospect, but that doesn't mean his value is gone. He still possesses the first-round pedigree, the ability to get on base at a solid 34% rate, and, most importantly, the raw power that every team in the MLB covets. His recent performance should prompt the Twins to reconsider their stance on him. The Twins must decide whether to add Sabato to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. While leaving him off last year was an easy choice given his struggles, his performance this year makes that decision much harder. Sabato will soon earn a promotion to Triple-A, where the Twins can better understand his readiness for the big leagues. Sabato will likely never live up to his first-round draft selection, where he was taken four years ago. He may never even end up being a full-time Major League Baseball player. But if we have seen anything from the Minnesota Twins this season, you can never have too many bats in your organization to call up, especially ones with the pop that Sabato presents. And with many of the Twins up and coming players coming from the left side of the plate (Emmanuel Rodriguez, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien), a player with Sabato's bat to come up even as a platoon first baseman/designated hitter is something of value. Power-hitting bats are always in demand, and Sabato's resurgence suggests he could still fill that role, even if in a limited capacity. The journey hasn't been easy, and Sabato still may never make it to the Big Leagues with the Twins, but his performance this season has given the Twins a reason to see what they have in their former first rounder. There's still plenty of reason to believe in Aaron Sabato. Do you still believe in Aaron Sabato as a prospect for the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
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After being so good for so long, we are witnessing some major struggles from Caleb Thielbar this season, which has put the Twins in a difficult situation. What do the Twins do with the left hander? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA Today This decade, the Minnesota Twins have had their share of ups and downs with the bullpen, but Caleb Thielbar is one name that's been a steady source of reliability. Since his remarkable return to the Twins in 2020 after a five-year hiatus from the Big Leagues, Thielbar has been a crucial piece of Minnesota's bullpen, perhaps the most critical piece. From 2020-2023, Thielbar was second among Twins' relief in ERA and WPA, trailing only Jhoan Duran in both statistics, with an ERA of 3.21 and a cumulative WPA of 4.08. He threw the most relief innings at that time (174 IP) and collected the most fWAR (3.1). Whether as a left-handed specialist or a fireman to get the Twins out of precarious situations, Thielbar has been nothing short of a rock. This year, however, has presented a starkly different narrative for Thielbar. He is currently enduring the most challenging season of his career. After starting the season on the injured list with a hamstring injury, Thielbar has posted a 7.71 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. His WHIP is over two, and he is walking batters at a higher rate than ever before in his career. Thielbar has been responsible for -0.1 fWAR this season with a WPA of -0.51. And this was after a tough finish to the season last year in which he posted a 4.66 ERA in September and got knocked around in both of his appearances in the ALDS against the Houston Astros (I apologize in advance for the Twitter clip below.) Thielbar is 37 years old, and in an era where relievers are regularly throwing in the high 90s, it might be that Thielbar doesn't have the juice anymore to keep up with the direction that MLB bullpens have headed. Thielbar is getting knocked around, and the Twins suffer as a result. The southpaw is getting barreled up 16% of the time, allowing harder contact than ever. He came into the season as their top lefty arm but has quickly moved down the bullpen pecking order as he just has not been reliable enough to get crucial outs down the stretch of games. So, the Twins find themselves at a critical juncture with Thielbar. Do they stick with him and keep throwing him out there despite some very concerning signs that his prime reliever days are very much behind him? Or do they stick with the guy who has been so consistent for them over the past four seasons and hope that he works his way out of it? There are certainly reasons to stick with their veteran left-hander. Underneath the hood, the numbers for Thielbar provide optimism for the Twins. He has significantly lower expected numbers than actual numbers (though still not great expected numbers, truth be told). His velocity is the same as it has always been, and he is striking out and generating the same swing-and-miss numbers as he always has. Thielbar has been bad, but after being so excellent for four consecutive seasons for the Twins, cutting the guy after 16 bad innings seems hasty and not wise. Additionally, the Twins don't have many reliable left-handed relievers in their organization to fill that role in the bullpen. Steven Okert has been solid but has had signs of trouble lately, and Kody Funderburk has looked good but is still young and unproven. Thielbar has shown that he can go through slumps on the mound (just as every reliever does) and come back in a big way. Take 2022, for example. Through the first three months of the season (28 innings), Thielbar owned a 5.46 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Once the calendar turned to July, though, Theilbar turned things around in a significant way, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP down the stretch of the season. The Twins owe it to Thielbar to stick with him, at least up until the trade deadline. He has been too good for too long and is too beloved in that locker room to move on from him at the first sign of trouble. If we get to the end of July and Thielbar shows that he is just truly cooked, then at that point, the Twins can explore moving on from the veteran and looking to the trade market for a southpaw that can replace him. But for now, the Twins should do their best to give Thielbar advantageous lefty-lefty matchups and low-leverage appearances when they can and help get their reliever back on track. Should the Twins move on from Caleb Thielbar or stick with him? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. View full article
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This decade, the Minnesota Twins have had their share of ups and downs with the bullpen, but Caleb Thielbar is one name that's been a steady source of reliability. Since his remarkable return to the Twins in 2020 after a five-year hiatus from the Big Leagues, Thielbar has been a crucial piece of Minnesota's bullpen, perhaps the most critical piece. From 2020-2023, Thielbar was second among Twins' relief in ERA and WPA, trailing only Jhoan Duran in both statistics, with an ERA of 3.21 and a cumulative WPA of 4.08. He threw the most relief innings at that time (174 IP) and collected the most fWAR (3.1). Whether as a left-handed specialist or a fireman to get the Twins out of precarious situations, Thielbar has been nothing short of a rock. This year, however, has presented a starkly different narrative for Thielbar. He is currently enduring the most challenging season of his career. After starting the season on the injured list with a hamstring injury, Thielbar has posted a 7.71 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. His WHIP is over two, and he is walking batters at a higher rate than ever before in his career. Thielbar has been responsible for -0.1 fWAR this season with a WPA of -0.51. And this was after a tough finish to the season last year in which he posted a 4.66 ERA in September and got knocked around in both of his appearances in the ALDS against the Houston Astros (I apologize in advance for the Twitter clip below.) Thielbar is 37 years old, and in an era where relievers are regularly throwing in the high 90s, it might be that Thielbar doesn't have the juice anymore to keep up with the direction that MLB bullpens have headed. Thielbar is getting knocked around, and the Twins suffer as a result. The southpaw is getting barreled up 16% of the time, allowing harder contact than ever. He came into the season as their top lefty arm but has quickly moved down the bullpen pecking order as he just has not been reliable enough to get crucial outs down the stretch of games. So, the Twins find themselves at a critical juncture with Thielbar. Do they stick with him and keep throwing him out there despite some very concerning signs that his prime reliever days are very much behind him? Or do they stick with the guy who has been so consistent for them over the past four seasons and hope that he works his way out of it? There are certainly reasons to stick with their veteran left-hander. Underneath the hood, the numbers for Thielbar provide optimism for the Twins. He has significantly lower expected numbers than actual numbers (though still not great expected numbers, truth be told). His velocity is the same as it has always been, and he is striking out and generating the same swing-and-miss numbers as he always has. Thielbar has been bad, but after being so excellent for four consecutive seasons for the Twins, cutting the guy after 16 bad innings seems hasty and not wise. Additionally, the Twins don't have many reliable left-handed relievers in their organization to fill that role in the bullpen. Steven Okert has been solid but has had signs of trouble lately, and Kody Funderburk has looked good but is still young and unproven. Thielbar has shown that he can go through slumps on the mound (just as every reliever does) and come back in a big way. Take 2022, for example. Through the first three months of the season (28 innings), Thielbar owned a 5.46 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Once the calendar turned to July, though, Theilbar turned things around in a significant way, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP down the stretch of the season. The Twins owe it to Thielbar to stick with him, at least up until the trade deadline. He has been too good for too long and is too beloved in that locker room to move on from him at the first sign of trouble. If we get to the end of July and Thielbar shows that he is just truly cooked, then at that point, the Twins can explore moving on from the veteran and looking to the trade market for a southpaw that can replace him. But for now, the Twins should do their best to give Thielbar advantageous lefty-lefty matchups and low-leverage appearances when they can and help get their reliever back on track. Should the Twins move on from Caleb Thielbar or stick with him? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.
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4 Right-Handed Relievers Twins Should Pursue at the Trade Deadline
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
The Twins' bullpen has been a strong point this season, ranking in the top half of baseball with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.7 fWAR. Despite this success, there is room for improvement, especially in terms of depth. The team has leaned heavily on the back end of their bullpen, and adding another reliable arm could provide much-needed support as the season progresses and the wear and tear on their current relievers increases. Right-handed pitchers are particularly important for the Twins' bullpen strategy. Griffin Jax is performing like an All-Star, and Jhoan Durán, while elite, has shown occasional vulnerabilities. Brock Stewart has been excellent when healthy, but is a massive health wildcard, and Jorge Alcalá (despite his promise) has not yet earned complete trust. Introducing another dependable right-handed reliever could significantly strengthen the Twins' bullpen, providing stability and flexibility for manager Rocco Baldelli. Below are four players whom the Minnesota Twins should consider pursuing as they approach the trade deadline, looking at teams that currently have 10% or worse odds of reaching the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. I listed the relievers in ascending order of my personal interest in these relievers as targets, taking skill, contract and cost to acquire in consideration. Declan Cronin A lesser-known right-handed reliever that the Twins could explore going after at the trade deadline this season would be Miami’s Declan Cronin, who is still a rookie after only having thrown 11 innings prior to this season. Though he is young, Cronin has looked the part of a solid MLB reliever in 34 innings for the Miami Marlins this season, with a 2.65 ERA, backed up by a 2.77 FIP. While Cronin doesn’t boast much in the velocity department (just 93 MPH on his fastball), he does an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a 62% ground ball rate, meaning Cronin also excels at keeping the ball in the ballpark. Still relatively unknown, Cronin figures not to come with a high price tag. The Twins have the opportunity to buy low on the former White Sox jetsam while he is still pre-arbitration, and to have him as a low-cost member of the bullpen (if they want him) for years to come. Kyle Finnegan In the fifth year of his major-league career, Kyle Finnegan has been one of baseball's largest bullpen breakouts this season. In 30 ⅓ innings this season, Finnegan has a career-low 1.78 ERA, to go along with a 0.85 WHIP and 20 saves, second-most in the National League. While the right-hander has really broken out this season, he’s hardly a no-name reliever. Over his first four seasons in the bigs, Finnegan had a career 3.53 ERA, and has been a consistent back-end arm for the Nationals year after year. Finnegan’s 1.78 ERA this season makes him look like one of baseball’s best relievers. However, there is legitimate reason to wonder whether he truly is that bullpen ace, or if he is simply a solid reliever. Finnegan has an xERA of 3.82 and a FIP of 4.24, numbers that much closer resemble his career numbers coming into this season than they do of his All-Star-caliber numbers this year. Either way, Finnegan is a name that the Twins should explore, though with his trade value higher than it’s ever been and him still having a year of control past this one, he may be a bit more costly than other relievers on the market. Carlos Estévez Building on his first career All-Star campaign in 2023, Carlos Estévez is currently in the midst of the best season of his eight-year career. In 23 innings for the Los Angeles Angels this season, Estévez owns a 3.52 ERA with an excellent 0.87 WHIP, and he's racked up 13 saves. While Estévez was a steady force in Colorado’s bullpen for years before his All-Star season last year, he has taken things up a level this year, thanks to his outstanding control. After a career walk rate of 9.3% coming into the campaign, the Dominican right-hander has only issued three walks all season for a 3.4 BB%, good for ninth-best in baseball. Estévez relies heavily on his 96-mile-per-hour fastball, which he throws 63% of the time, but he also has a strong slider and changeup that generate swings and misses against righties and lefties, respectively. Estévez is set to be a free agent at the end of this season. As a result, the cost to acquire the righthander shouldn’t be too drastic, and the 31-year-old should fit right into the middle of the bullpen hierarchy, following Durán, Jax and Stewart. Hunter Harvey Another back-end reliever from the Nationals whom the Twins could explore on the trade market is righty Hunter Harvey. Harvey is in the midst of his third straight excellent season for the Nats, with a 2.75 ERA to go along with a 28,2% strikeout rate. After battling injury and poor performance for the Baltimore Orioles in his three-year stint with them from 2019-2021, Harvey bounced around waivers a bit before landing with the Nationals--where he's been outstanding, ever since. Harvey throws a high-90s four-seamer, to go along with a devastating splitter that generates a 39% whiff rate. He is truly one of the best relievers in all of baseball. He limits walks and home runs. Harvey would walk into the Twins bullpen and immediately be right there with Durán and Jax, fighting for the highest-leverage opportunities. Hunter Harvey won’t be cheap to acquire, though. Along with Mason Miller, Harvey is likely the most talented reliever who will be on the trade market this summer, and he still has a year of team control following this season. That being said, if the Twins simply wanted to go with the best arm from the players listed here, Harvey would be that guy. Which of the above right-handed relievers are you most interested in? Were there any names not listed here that you think the Twins should pursue? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!- 12 comments
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The MLB trade deadline is just six weeks away, and the Minnesota Twins are likely to be active participants in the market. One of their primary areas of interest will be acquiring a right-handed reliever to bolster their bullpen for the stretch run. Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports The Twins' bullpen has been a strong point this season, ranking in the top half of baseball with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.7 fWAR. Despite this success, there is room for improvement, especially in terms of depth. The team has leaned heavily on the back end of their bullpen, and adding another reliable arm could provide much-needed support as the season progresses and the wear and tear on their current relievers increases. Right-handed pitchers are particularly important for the Twins' bullpen strategy. Griffin Jax is performing like an All-Star, and Jhoan Durán, while elite, has shown occasional vulnerabilities. Brock Stewart has been excellent when healthy, but is a massive health wildcard, and Jorge Alcalá (despite his promise) has not yet earned complete trust. Introducing another dependable right-handed reliever could significantly strengthen the Twins' bullpen, providing stability and flexibility for manager Rocco Baldelli. Below are four players whom the Minnesota Twins should consider pursuing as they approach the trade deadline, looking at teams that currently have 10% or worse odds of reaching the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. I listed the relievers in ascending order of my personal interest in these relievers as targets, taking skill, contract and cost to acquire in consideration. Declan Cronin A lesser-known right-handed reliever that the Twins could explore going after at the trade deadline this season would be Miami’s Declan Cronin, who is still a rookie after only having thrown 11 innings prior to this season. Though he is young, Cronin has looked the part of a solid MLB reliever in 34 innings for the Miami Marlins this season, with a 2.65 ERA, backed up by a 2.77 FIP. While Cronin doesn’t boast much in the velocity department (just 93 MPH on his fastball), he does an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a 62% ground ball rate, meaning Cronin also excels at keeping the ball in the ballpark. Still relatively unknown, Cronin figures not to come with a high price tag. The Twins have the opportunity to buy low on the former White Sox jetsam while he is still pre-arbitration, and to have him as a low-cost member of the bullpen (if they want him) for years to come. Kyle Finnegan In the fifth year of his major-league career, Kyle Finnegan has been one of baseball's largest bullpen breakouts this season. In 30 ⅓ innings this season, Finnegan has a career-low 1.78 ERA, to go along with a 0.85 WHIP and 20 saves, second-most in the National League. While the right-hander has really broken out this season, he’s hardly a no-name reliever. Over his first four seasons in the bigs, Finnegan had a career 3.53 ERA, and has been a consistent back-end arm for the Nationals year after year. Finnegan’s 1.78 ERA this season makes him look like one of baseball’s best relievers. However, there is legitimate reason to wonder whether he truly is that bullpen ace, or if he is simply a solid reliever. Finnegan has an xERA of 3.82 and a FIP of 4.24, numbers that much closer resemble his career numbers coming into this season than they do of his All-Star-caliber numbers this year. Either way, Finnegan is a name that the Twins should explore, though with his trade value higher than it’s ever been and him still having a year of control past this one, he may be a bit more costly than other relievers on the market. Carlos Estévez Building on his first career All-Star campaign in 2023, Carlos Estévez is currently in the midst of the best season of his eight-year career. In 23 innings for the Los Angeles Angels this season, Estévez owns a 3.52 ERA with an excellent 0.87 WHIP, and he's racked up 13 saves. While Estévez was a steady force in Colorado’s bullpen for years before his All-Star season last year, he has taken things up a level this year, thanks to his outstanding control. After a career walk rate of 9.3% coming into the campaign, the Dominican right-hander has only issued three walks all season for a 3.4 BB%, good for ninth-best in baseball. Estévez relies heavily on his 96-mile-per-hour fastball, which he throws 63% of the time, but he also has a strong slider and changeup that generate swings and misses against righties and lefties, respectively. Estévez is set to be a free agent at the end of this season. As a result, the cost to acquire the righthander shouldn’t be too drastic, and the 31-year-old should fit right into the middle of the bullpen hierarchy, following Durán, Jax and Stewart. Hunter Harvey Another back-end reliever from the Nationals whom the Twins could explore on the trade market is righty Hunter Harvey. Harvey is in the midst of his third straight excellent season for the Nats, with a 2.75 ERA to go along with a 28,2% strikeout rate. After battling injury and poor performance for the Baltimore Orioles in his three-year stint with them from 2019-2021, Harvey bounced around waivers a bit before landing with the Nationals--where he's been outstanding, ever since. Harvey throws a high-90s four-seamer, to go along with a devastating splitter that generates a 39% whiff rate. He is truly one of the best relievers in all of baseball. He limits walks and home runs. Harvey would walk into the Twins bullpen and immediately be right there with Durán and Jax, fighting for the highest-leverage opportunities. Hunter Harvey won’t be cheap to acquire, though. Along with Mason Miller, Harvey is likely the most talented reliever who will be on the trade market this summer, and he still has a year of team control following this season. That being said, if the Twins simply wanted to go with the best arm from the players listed here, Harvey would be that guy. Which of the above right-handed relievers are you most interested in? Were there any names not listed here that you think the Twins should pursue? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
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The 2024 Chicago White Sox are in the midst of one of the worst baseball seasons that we have seen in recent memory. Chicago currently sports an MLB-worst record of 19-54, with the worst offense and second-worst pitching in baseball. While trades within the division are rare, they are not unprecedented. History has shown us that when one team is far enough out of contention, the interests and timelines of two division rivals can line up well enough to permit a deal to come together. Notable examples include Roger Clemens being traded from the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners sending Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers--then, more recently, those same Mariners sending reliever Kendall Graveman to the Astros in 2021. The White Sox would certainly count as a team so far outside a contending window that they should be willing to trade with any team, even one that resides in their own division. With the White Sox struggling this season and clearly in rebuilding mode, the Twins might find some valuable pieces to enhance their chances of making a deep postseason run. Here are a few players from the White Sox who could pique the Twins' interest, broken down by position: Hitters Luis Robert Jr. is obviously the name at the top of the list for the Sox in terms of star power and potential. A previous top-5 prospect in the world, the only thing that has kept Robert down since making the big leagues is injury. Healthy now, Robert represents the biggest trade chip that the White Sox have. While Robert joining the Twins would be exciting, it’s hard to come up with a scenario in which this happens. Not only are the White Sox unlikely to trade a player of Robert’s caliber to a rival, but with Byron Buxton already manning center field, there really isn’t a scenario in which this should be necessary. Gavin Sheets might be closer to plausibility. Sheets is a 28-year-old left-handed corner outfielder, who has a 121 OPS+ on the season. Left-handed bats are a big area of need for the Twins that Sheets could certainly fill. Additionally, Sheets won’t hit arbitration until next season, so he is affordable and controllable, and could fill Max Kepler’s spot in right field for the next few years if he keeps up his performance at the plate. Given that he is young and cheap, Sheets would probably be a bit more costly than a rental player, but that might be a sacrifice this front office is willing to make for a higher-upside player. If the Twins wanted to find a cheaper rental on an expiring contract, they could look the way of a right-handed corner outfielder to whom rumors tied them at times this offseason, Tommy Pham. Pham is a right-handed hitter who has a 110 OPS+ this season, with an extremely impressive .864 OPS against southpaws. Pham could replace Manuel Margot on the roster, as a right-handed fourth or fifth outfielder, but with the tear that Margot has been on of late, they may just prefer to stay the course with that position. Pham is currently on the injured list, but is slated to return within the week. Starting Pitchers For a pitching staff that ranks second-to-last in baseball in ERA, the White Sox surprisingly have a few intriguing starting pitchers whom they will consider trading at the trade deadline. Garrett Crochet has been the ace of the White Sox pitching staff this season, boasting a 3.33 ERA to go along with a 12.3 K/9, the highest strikeout rate in the majors. At just 24 years old, Crochet is playing in his first season of arbitration eligibility, with two years of control remaining after this one. Crochet is bound to fetch a fortune on the trade market this season, and as with Robert, the White Sox just can't send him to the Twins. A starting pitcher more likely to be dealt within the division is another guy having an excellent year, Erick Fedde. A relative unknown who struggled in the majors for years before crossing the Pacific to play in Korea, Fedde has been outstanding for the Sox in his return to MLB, with a team-best 3.10 ERA in just over 80 innings. Because of his age and lack of pedigree, Fedde wouldn’t command the same price as other top trade targets, but could provide the Twins with a more capable fourth or fifth starter than they've had thus far. Relievers In the bullpen, Michael Kopech could be an intriguing name for the Twins to look at. By all accounts, he is having a terrible year, with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP, but there are reasons to believe that the Twins could target the righthander and turn him around. Kopech was once a top-10 global MLB prospect, and he did experience some success as a starting pitcher as recently as 2022. Kopech boasts a fastball that touches triple digits, but has struggled with a secondary pitch. If the Twins can tinker with Kopech’s slider, they could turn him into a potentially dominant reliever for an affordable price. Another reliever option would be Steven Wilson, whom the White Sox acquired in their trade of Dylan Cease in March. Wilson has been a dominant reliever throughout his short MLB career and started off the season well, with a 2.84 ERA and 9.0 K/9 in 19 innings. Wilson is just 29 years old and still has three years of team control after this one, so his price could well be steep, but the payoff could be strong for the team who acquires him down the stretch. Even though the White Sox are a terrible baseball team, they still have several names that figure to be of interest for the Minnesota Twins this offseason. Which name from the Chicago White Sox interests you the most? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.
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As the 2024 MLB trade deadline approaches, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a position to bolster their roster for a potential playoff push. One of the more intriguing trade partners could be the Chicago White Sox. The 2024 Chicago White Sox are in the midst of one of the worst baseball seasons that we have seen in recent memory. Chicago currently sits with an MLB-worst record of 17-51 and owns the worst offense and second worst pitching in baseball. While trades within the division are rare, they are not unprecedented. History has shown us that when one team is significantly out of contention, deals can be made, even with a division rival. Notable examples include Roger Clemens being traded from the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners sending Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers. The White Sox would certainly represent a team that is so far out of a contending window that they should be willing to trade with any team, even one that resides in its own division. With the White Sox struggling this season and clearly in a rebuilding mode, the Twins might find some valuable pieces to enhance their chances of making a deep postseason run. Here are a few players from the White Sox that could pique the Twins' interest, broken down by position: Hitters Luis Robert is obviously the name at the top of the list for the Chicago White Sox in terms of star power and potential. A previous top-5 prospect in the world, the only thing that has kept Robert down since making the Big Leagues is injury. Healthy now, Robert represents the biggest trade chip that the White Sox have. While Robert joining the Twins would be exciting, it’s hard to come up with a scenario in which this happens. Not only are the White Sox unlikely to trade a player of Robert’s caliber to it’s rival, but with Byron Buxton already manning center field, there really isn’t a scenario in which this would happen. Gavin Sheets is a name that could pique the Twins’ interest. Sheets is a 28-year-old left-handed corner outfielder for the Twins who has a 121 OPS+ on the season. Left handed bats are a big area of need for the Twins that Sheets could certainly fill. Additionally, Sheets won’t hit arbitration until next season so he is affordable and controllable and could fill Max Kepler’s spot in right field for the next few years if he keeps up his play at the plate. Given that he is young and cheap, Sheets would probably be a bit more costly than a rental player, but that might be a sacrifice this Front Office is willing to make for a higher-upside player. If the Twins wanted to find a cheaper rental on an expiring contract, they could look the way of a right handed corner outfielder that they were tied to at times this offseason, Tommy Pham. Pham is a right handed outfielder who has a 110 OPS+ this season with an extremely impressive .864 OPS against southpaws. Pham could replace Margot on the roster as a right-handed 4th/5th outfielder, but with the tear that Margot has been on they may just prefer to stay the course with that position. Pham is currently on the injured list, but is slated to return within the week. Starting Pitchers For a pitching staff that ranks second to last in baseball in ERA, the White Sox surprisingly have a few intriguing starting pitchers that they will consider trading at the trade deadline. Garrett Crochet has been the ace of the White Sox pitching staff this season, boasting a 3.33 ERA to go along with a 12.3 K/9, the highest strikeout rate in the Majors. At just 24-years-old, Crochet is currently in his first year of arbitration with two more years of control still remaining. Crochet is bound to fetch a fortune on the trade market this season and, similar to Robert, the White Sox are unable to deal such a name to the rival Twins. A starting pitcher more likely to be dealt to the Minnesota Twins is another starting pitcher having an excellent year for the White Sox, Erick Fedde. A relative unknown who struggled in the Majors for years before skipping last season to play in Korea, Fedde has been outstanding for the Sox this season with a team-best 3.10 ERA in just over 80 innings. Because of his age and lack of pedigree, Fedde wouldn’t command the same price as other top trade targets, but could provide the Minnesota Twins with a 5th starter to provide the Twins with depth in the rotation. Relievers In the bullpen Michael Kopech could be an intriguing name for the Twins to look at. By all accounts he is having a terrible year in the bullpen with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP, but there are reasons to believe that the Twins could target the right hander and turn him around. Kopech was once a top-10 global MLB prospect and he did experience some success as a starting pitcher as recently as 2022. Kopech boasts a fastball that touches triple digits, but has struggled with a secondary pitch. If the Twins can tinker with Kopech’s slider, they could turn him into a potentially dominant reliever for an affordable price. Another reliever option would be Steven Wilson, who the White Sox acquired in their trade of Dylan Cease this offseason. Wilson has been a dominant reliever throughout his short MLB career and started off the season well, with a 2.84 ERA and 9.0 K/9 in 19 innings. Wilson is just 29-years-old and still has three years of team control after this one, so his price could well be steep, but the payoff could be strong for the team that acquires him down the stretch. Even though the White Sox are a terrible baseball team, they still have several names that figure to be of interest for the Minnesota Twins this offseason. Which name from the Chicago White Sox interests you the most? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. View full article
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Make it Official! Twins 6, Athletics 2: Carlos Correa Rakes
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
Box Score SP: Joe Ryan 7.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (78 pitches, 54 strikes) Home Runs: Carlos Correa (6) Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.253), Joe Ryan (.191), Byron Buxton (.174) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) After trading scoreless innings in the first, the scoring began for each team in the second inning. Beginning with the Oakland Athletics who followed up a Miguel Andujar walk with a Tyler Soderstrom two-run shot to dead center to take an early 2-0 lead on the Twins. Minnesota quickly struck back in the bottom of the second inning with two runs of their own thanks to a Byron Buxton two-run single up the middle that plated Carlos Correa and Max Kepler. The single for Buxton marked his fifth hit in the past six games, a much needed string of solid performances from the talented center fielder who had been having a tough start to the season. The Twins were able to quickly push out to a 4-2 lead thanks to a two-out RBI single from Carlos Correa in the third inning, followed by a run-scoring ground out from freshly promoted Austin Martin in the fourth. The game stood in the balance until the bottom of the seventh when the red hot Carlos Correa took reliever Sean Newcomb deep for a two run blast to left field for his 6th home run of the season. The homer notched a hit day for Correa, making it eight hits for the shortstop in the past two days. More importantly, the home run birthed a new home run celebration for the Minnesota Twins, courtesy of Pablo López, and it’s amazing. Aside from allowing the home run from Soderstrom in the second inning, Joe Ryan was lights out on the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight, tossing seven innings and only allowing three total hits on the night. The performance lowered Ryan’s ERA to 3.24 on the season, strengthening his case to become an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. The seven inning outing for Ryan was especially huge given the fact that the Twins are in the midst of playing 13 games in 13 days and the bullpen was in need of rest. The little that was required of the bullpen was smooth sailing tonight as Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala both finished off the game unscathed with back-to-back shutout innings to clinch a 6-2 win for the Minnesota Twins, who lower the deficit in the division to 7.5 games with Cleveland having an off-day today. Notes Earlier today, the Twins formally announced that they optioned Alex Kirilloff to Triple-A and recalled Austin Martin. In his first game back with the Twins, Martin went 2-for-4 with an RBI. What’s Next The Minnesota Twins will face the Oakland Athletics again tomorrow night at Target Field in what will be the on-field debut of their City Connect jerseys. Simeon Woods Richardson will take the mound for the Twins and face off against right handed pitcher Mitch Spence of the A’s. Bullpen Usage Chart- 27 comments
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After an explosive offensive performance on Wednesday afternoon against Colorado, the Minnesota Twins kept the good vibes rolling against the Oakland Athletics, winning 6-2 and taking the first of a four-game series. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Joe Ryan 7.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (78 pitches, 54 strikes) Home Runs: Carlos Correa (6) Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.253), Joe Ryan (.191), Byron Buxton (.174) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) After trading scoreless innings in the first, the scoring began for each team in the second inning. Beginning with the Oakland Athletics who followed up a Miguel Andujar walk with a Tyler Soderstrom two-run shot to dead center to take an early 2-0 lead on the Twins. Minnesota quickly struck back in the bottom of the second inning with two runs of their own thanks to a Byron Buxton two-run single up the middle that plated Carlos Correa and Max Kepler. The single for Buxton marked his fifth hit in the past six games, a much needed string of solid performances from the talented center fielder who had been having a tough start to the season. The Twins were able to quickly push out to a 4-2 lead thanks to a two-out RBI single from Carlos Correa in the third inning, followed by a run-scoring ground out from freshly promoted Austin Martin in the fourth. The game stood in the balance until the bottom of the seventh when the red hot Carlos Correa took reliever Sean Newcomb deep for a two run blast to left field for his 6th home run of the season. The homer notched a hit day for Correa, making it eight hits for the shortstop in the past two days. More importantly, the home run birthed a new home run celebration for the Minnesota Twins, courtesy of Pablo López, and it’s amazing. Aside from allowing the home run from Soderstrom in the second inning, Joe Ryan was lights out on the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight, tossing seven innings and only allowing three total hits on the night. The performance lowered Ryan’s ERA to 3.24 on the season, strengthening his case to become an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. The seven inning outing for Ryan was especially huge given the fact that the Twins are in the midst of playing 13 games in 13 days and the bullpen was in need of rest. The little that was required of the bullpen was smooth sailing tonight as Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala both finished off the game unscathed with back-to-back shutout innings to clinch a 6-2 win for the Minnesota Twins, who lower the deficit in the division to 7.5 games with Cleveland having an off-day today. Notes Earlier today, the Twins formally announced that they optioned Alex Kirilloff to Triple-A and recalled Austin Martin. In his first game back with the Twins, Martin went 2-for-4 with an RBI. What’s Next The Minnesota Twins will face the Oakland Athletics again tomorrow night at Target Field in what will be the on-field debut of their City Connect jerseys. Simeon Woods Richardson will take the mound for the Twins and face off against right handed pitcher Mitch Spence of the A’s. Bullpen Usage Chart View full article
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Why the Twins Were Right to Demote Alex Kirilloff to Minors
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
The demotion of Alex Kirilloff might come as a surprise to some who remember him as a stud, top-20 global prospect, but it shouldn't be shocking to anyone who has been following the Twins closely this year. On the season, Kirilloff has posted a disappointing .669 OPS, and the trend line had been pointed steeply downward. After an encouraging start with a .754 OPS in April, he slumped to a .613 OPS in May and hit rock bottom in June, going 2-for-23 with a .360 OPS. He hasn’t recorded a multi-hit game since May 25 and has only managed two such games all season. While some might have pointed to his underlying statistics as a sign of potential improvement, even those numbers painted a grim picture. Kirilloff's expected batting average (xBA) sat at .220, only marginally better than his actual .206. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) was .442, compared to his actual .394, and his expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) was .312, slightly above his actual .292. These expected metrics suggested a minor regression to the mean, but even in the best-case scenario, Kirilloff would still have been an underwhelming hitter. Injuries may have played a role in his struggles, whether they were current, unreported issues, or lingering effects from his previous wrist or shoulder surgeries. Regardless of the cause, Kirilloff simply wasn’t the same batter the Twins hoped he would be when he was first called up as a top prospect. Instead of driving the ball with authority, he had been hitting grounders at an alarming rate, with a ground ball percentage (GB%) nearing 50%. What made Kirilloff’s offensive struggles even more pronounced for the Twins were his limitations on the defensive side of the ball. As a strict corner bat, offensive production is even more pivotal from him, as it is the easiest offensive production to replace. To make matters worse, he wasn’t even fielding those positions well, with a -4 Outs Above Average output in the field this season. Given his prolonged struggles and the team's pressing need for offensive production (save for Wednesday's performance against the Rockies), the Twins could not afford to keep Kirilloff in the lineup. Over the past 17 games, the Twins had scored three runs or fewer in eight of them. Changes were necessary, and Kirilloff, who still had minor-league options, was the logical choice to be sent down. The name that will be promoted in Kirilloff's place is still yet to be announced. The Twins have viable alternatives waiting in the wings. Matt Wallner, boasting a scorching 1.113 OPS with four home runs for the Saints in June in eight games, and Austin Martin, who has posted an .818 OPS while getting on base 46% of the time since mid-May, both offer more promise at the plate at the moment. Either would also be a defensive upgrade, with Wallner's arm in the outfield and Martin’s positional flexibility all over the field. According to reports Wednesday night, Martin is getting the nod. With 880 najor-league plate appearances and nearly 1,500 as a professional, it’s not a slam dunk that sending Kirilloff down to Triple-A will fix him as a player, or that he has any more to learn. The truth is, however, that the Twins could not sit around and wait any longer for him to figure it out at the MLB level. Demoting Alex Kirilloff is a tough but necessary decision that could help reignite their offense and give the team a much-needed spark. Hopefully, it's not the last we'll hear of Kirilloff, but given his age and track record, that's become a legitimate question. Do you think the Twins made the right choice in demoting Alex Kirilloff? How should they redistribute playing time in his absence? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!- 121 comments
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The Minnesota Twins have made a difficult but necessary decision by demoting Alex Kirilloff. According to the team website's transaction page, the Minnesota Twins have optioned the left-handed hitter to Triple-A. Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports The demotion of Alex Kirilloff might come as a surprise to some who remember him as a stud, top-20 global prospect, but it shouldn't be shocking to anyone who has been following the Twins closely this year. On the season, Kirilloff has posted a disappointing .669 OPS, and the trend line had been pointed steeply downward. After an encouraging start with a .754 OPS in April, he slumped to a .613 OPS in May and hit rock bottom in June, going 2-for-23 with a .360 OPS. He hasn’t recorded a multi-hit game since May 25 and has only managed two such games all season. While some might have pointed to his underlying statistics as a sign of potential improvement, even those numbers painted a grim picture. Kirilloff's expected batting average (xBA) sat at .220, only marginally better than his actual .206. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) was .442, compared to his actual .394, and his expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) was .312, slightly above his actual .292. These expected metrics suggested a minor regression to the mean, but even in the best-case scenario, Kirilloff would still have been an underwhelming hitter. Injuries may have played a role in his struggles, whether they were current, unreported issues, or lingering effects from his previous wrist or shoulder surgeries. Regardless of the cause, Kirilloff simply wasn’t the same batter the Twins hoped he would be when he was first called up as a top prospect. Instead of driving the ball with authority, he had been hitting grounders at an alarming rate, with a ground ball percentage (GB%) nearing 50%. What made Kirilloff’s offensive struggles even more pronounced for the Twins were his limitations on the defensive side of the ball. As a strict corner bat, offensive production is even more pivotal from him, as it is the easiest offensive production to replace. To make matters worse, he wasn’t even fielding those positions well, with a -4 Outs Above Average output in the field this season. Given his prolonged struggles and the team's pressing need for offensive production (save for Wednesday's performance against the Rockies), the Twins could not afford to keep Kirilloff in the lineup. Over the past 17 games, the Twins had scored three runs or fewer in eight of them. Changes were necessary, and Kirilloff, who still had minor-league options, was the logical choice to be sent down. The name that will be promoted in Kirilloff's place is still yet to be announced. The Twins have viable alternatives waiting in the wings. Matt Wallner, boasting a scorching 1.113 OPS with four home runs for the Saints in June in eight games, and Austin Martin, who has posted an .818 OPS while getting on base 46% of the time since mid-May, both offer more promise at the plate at the moment. Either would also be a defensive upgrade, with Wallner's arm in the outfield and Martin’s positional flexibility all over the field. According to reports Wednesday night, Martin is getting the nod. With 880 najor-league plate appearances and nearly 1,500 as a professional, it’s not a slam dunk that sending Kirilloff down to Triple-A will fix him as a player, or that he has any more to learn. The truth is, however, that the Twins could not sit around and wait any longer for him to figure it out at the MLB level. Demoting Alex Kirilloff is a tough but necessary decision that could help reignite their offense and give the team a much-needed spark. Hopefully, it's not the last we'll hear of Kirilloff, but given his age and track record, that's become a legitimate question. Do you think the Twins made the right choice in demoting Alex Kirilloff? How should they redistribute playing time in his absence? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article
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Why We Shouldn't Be Too Concerned About Pablo Lopez's 5.45 ERA
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
Pablo López is coming off his best season to date--a season in which he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting and threw one of the most dazzling playoff starts in Minnesota Twins history, solidifying his status as one of the league’s elite pitchers. Over the past four seasons, López has consistently posted an ERA in the 3s, which has caused such an outlier season for him to raise so many eyebrows. There is, however, substantial reason for optimism. Last season, López experienced a similar pattern. Through his first 15 starts, he had an ERA of 4.40, yet his FIP was a much lower 3.47. This discrepancy indicated that López was pitching better than his ERA suggested, and indeed, the underlying metrics proved to be a better predictor of his performance. Over his final 17 starts, López posted a stellar 3.03 ERA, including a 2.00 ERA in August. This season, López's ERA of 5.45 is undoubtedly higher than we'd like to see, but once again, the underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story. His FIP is 1.30 points lower than his ERA, and as we look even further under the hood, there are even more promising figures. López currently boasts an xERA (Expected ERA) of 3.19, an xFIP (Expected FIP) of 3.43, and a SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 3.31. These advanced metrics, which incorporate strikeouts and walks in addition to batted-ball data like exit velocity, suggest that López’s true performance level is much closer to what we’ve seen in previous seasons. History has shown that pitchers with López's advanced metric profile tend to see their actual ERA regress toward their expected metrics, rather than having the opposite happen. As the season progresses, we should expect López’s ERA to align more closely with his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. This regression toward a truer talent level is a common phenomenon in baseball, where luck eventually evens out. And true talent is definitely something that Pablo López still possesses. López is still striking out batters at a 10+ K/9 clip; still throwing his fastball in the mid-90s; and still limiting hard contact, like he usually does. Just take a look at his Baseball Savant profile and you won’t see a pitcher whose ERA belongs in the 5s. For Twins fans, now is the time to buy López stock. His track record, combined with his underlying metrics, strongly indicates that his current ERA is a blip on the radar, rather than a trend. López has the tools and talent to be a cornerstone of the Twins’ rotation, and as the season continues, we can expect to see his performance stabilize and improve. Though it’s easy to get caught up in the worry of a high ERA, a deeper dive into López's statistics shows that there is reason for optimism. His advanced metrics paint the picture of a pitcher who is still performing at a high level, just waiting for the results to catch up. Obviously, the runs he's given up already are real, but we should expect him to surrender fewer going forward. Do you still believe in Pablo López? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! -
Of all the disappointing performances for the Minnesota Twins this season, none have been more surprising than Pablo López's inflated 5.45 ERA. However, a closer look at the underlying metrics (and López's track record) suggests there's no need for alarm. In fact, there's every reason to believe that López will soon return to his dominant form. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Pablo López is coming off his best season to date--a season in which he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting and threw one of the most dazzling playoff starts in Minnesota Twins history, solidifying his status as one of the league’s elite pitchers. Over the past four seasons, López has consistently posted an ERA in the 3s, which has caused such an outlier season for him to raise so many eyebrows. There is, however, substantial reason for optimism. Last season, López experienced a similar pattern. Through his first 15 starts, he had an ERA of 4.40, yet his FIP was a much lower 3.47. This discrepancy indicated that López was pitching better than his ERA suggested, and indeed, the underlying metrics proved to be a better predictor of his performance. Over his final 17 starts, López posted a stellar 3.03 ERA, including a 2.00 ERA in August. This season, López's ERA of 5.45 is undoubtedly higher than we'd like to see, but once again, the underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story. His FIP is 1.30 points lower than his ERA, and as we look even further under the hood, there are even more promising figures. López currently boasts an xERA (Expected ERA) of 3.19, an xFIP (Expected FIP) of 3.43, and a SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 3.31. These advanced metrics, which incorporate strikeouts and walks in addition to batted-ball data like exit velocity, suggest that López’s true performance level is much closer to what we’ve seen in previous seasons. History has shown that pitchers with López's advanced metric profile tend to see their actual ERA regress toward their expected metrics, rather than having the opposite happen. As the season progresses, we should expect López’s ERA to align more closely with his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. This regression toward a truer talent level is a common phenomenon in baseball, where luck eventually evens out. And true talent is definitely something that Pablo López still possesses. López is still striking out batters at a 10+ K/9 clip; still throwing his fastball in the mid-90s; and still limiting hard contact, like he usually does. Just take a look at his Baseball Savant profile and you won’t see a pitcher whose ERA belongs in the 5s. For Twins fans, now is the time to buy López stock. His track record, combined with his underlying metrics, strongly indicates that his current ERA is a blip on the radar, rather than a trend. López has the tools and talent to be a cornerstone of the Twins’ rotation, and as the season continues, we can expect to see his performance stabilize and improve. Though it’s easy to get caught up in the worry of a high ERA, a deeper dive into López's statistics shows that there is reason for optimism. His advanced metrics paint the picture of a pitcher who is still performing at a high level, just waiting for the results to catch up. Obviously, the runs he's given up already are real, but we should expect him to surrender fewer going forward. Do you still believe in Pablo López? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

