Matthew Taylor

[Ed. note: If you missed it earlier this morning, check out the counterpoint to this piece, from our Eric Blonigen, arguing that the Twins would be better off facing the Astros. Here's Matt making the case for taking on Walltimore.] For much of the season, fans have been eyeing the AL West champion as the better matchup in an eventual playoff showdown. At the time, the AL East runner-up would have likely meant heading to Yankee Stadium, or dealing with the surging Orioles. But now, with the regular season winding down, I'd argue that the Twins should hope for a matchup against Baltimore, as they appear to be the more vulnerable team right now. At the start of the year, Baltimore looked like a potential juggernaut, jumping out to a 49-25 record. They were in the conversation for the best team in baseball. But since Jul. 1, things have fallen apart for them. They’ve gone 33-39 over that stretch—one of the seven worst records in baseball. Think about how frustrated we’ve been with the Twins' showing since July began (34-38), and yet, the Orioles have been even worse. Since Sept. 1, things haven’t gotten any better for Baltimore. They're 8-11, and have completely taken themselves out of the running for the AL East title. It’s been a rough go for them, across the board. Since the start of July, they rank 21st in OPS (.710), 19th in starting pitching ERA (4.36), and their bullpen has fallen to 26th in the majors, with a 4.78 ERA. They’re not hitting well, their starting pitching is shaky, and their bullpen—which was once a strength—is now a glaring weakness. They're not getting it done in any phase of the game. One of the bigger concerns for Baltimore is their lack of playoff experience. They’re loaded with young talent, but they don’t have many players who have performed under the bright lights of October. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Cowser are incredibly talented, but they’ve only been in the postseason once, and that was last year, when they got swept by the Texas Rangers. It’s hard to bank on unproven players in a playoff series when the pressure ramps up. Compare that to the Houston Astros. This is a team that has been through everything—deep playoff runs, World Series wins, and the ups and downs that come with postseason baseball. Players like José Altuve and Alex Bregman have delivered in the biggest moments. There’s a certain comfort level Houston brings to the playoffs that Baltimore just doesn’t have. One side last saw the ALCS in 2014. The other has been there in each of the last seven years. That’s not to say facing the Orioles wouldn’t be challenging. Their ace, Corbin Burnes, is lined up to start Game 1. Burnes is a top-five pitcher in baseball, and he can shut down any lineup on his day. The Twins would have their work cut out for them in that matchup. But if they can survive Game 1, the rest of the series could tilt in Minnesota’s favor. After Burnes, the Twins have a clear advantage in starting pitching. And if they can get into Baltimore’s bullpen, which has been shaky for months, they could take control of the series. This weekend’s series against Baltimore will give the Twins an opportunity to size up the Orioles, but it’s worth noting that Baltimore might not be playing their top guys with their playoff spot already locked in. Still, it’s a good chance to see how they match up. It will also be a radically different setting than what the two teams would shift to for the playoff series, if it came to that, so the visitors wouldn't be able to extrapolate overmuch from whatever the Twins show. Target Field and Camden Yards play very, very differently. All in all, if the Twins make the playoffs, their best chance at advancing is probably through Baltimore. The Orioles’ recent struggles, combined with their lack of postseason experience, make them a beatable team. If the Twins can handle Burnes and get to Baltimore’s vulnerable bullpen, they could find themselves moving on in October. Would you rather the Twins get matched up against the Orioles or Astros? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

Before diving into whether it was the correct decision, let's lay out the logic behind Rocco Baldelli’s move. First, Zebby Matthews had just given up a double to Ceddanne Rafaela, the No. 9 hitter in the Boston lineup. Next up? Jarren Duran, the Sox's leadoff hitter, for the third time in the game. Here’s where the context is key: while pitch counts used to be the dominant factor in determining when managers lifted their starters, times through the order has become the more telling framework in recent years. Numbers consistently show that pitchers facing hitters for the third time in a game are significantly less effective. This season, Matthews has barely been allowed to see a batter a third time, and when he has, the results haven’t been pretty: 16 plate appearances and a .375 batting average against him. Then there’s the matchup itself. Jarren Duran is a lefty, and Matthews has struggled all year against left-handed batters, allowing them an OPS of 1.011. Meanwhile, Duran thrives against right-handed pitching, boasting a .913 OPS in those situations. Baldelli knew this wasn’t a favorable setup for the rookie, especially with Duran representing a pivotal out. On top of all this, Matthews is a rookie, approaching a career high in innings pitched, and hasn’t exactly been the picture of consistency. The context is clear: leaving Matthews in would have risked a catastrophic inning. So, the skipper turned to his bullpen and decided to bring in lefty Cole Irvin. The goal was to neutralize Duran with two outs. It was its own kind of risky, since the three-batter minimum rule would force Irvin to face right-handed hitters in a less-than-ideal scenario. With two outs, Irvin just needed to retire Duran. If he did, the Twins could reset the bullpen in the next inning. The logic there is sound. Had there been only one out, the decision might’ve been harder to justify. Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: Cole Irvin. Irvin was claimed off the scrapheap, after no team with a higher waiver priority than the Twins' wanted him. That's despite the fact that he's controllable beyond this year. It's understandable, because his 2024 season has been nothing short of miserable. However, his splits against left-handed hitters are solid—he’s held them to a .529 OPS this year, and Baldelli has shown a preference for deploying Irvin in these mid-inning matchups. The only other lefty available was Caleb Thielbar, who hasn’t inspired much more confidence than Irvin this season. So, Minnesota’s options were limited. Could Baldelli have gone to one of his high-leverage arms, like Griffin Jax, Jhoan Durán, or Cole Sands to escape the jam? Sure--especially coming off an off day with the rainout on Saturday and a planned day off on Monday. Pushing extra hard on the top of your bullpen was certainly in the cards. But still, it was only the 5th inning, and burning one of your top bullpen arms that early in a game with so much baseball left to play is rarely ideal. The issue wasn’t in the decision to bring in Irvin—it was what happened next. Irvin walked Duran. That was the one thing he couldn’t afford to do. Compelled to stay in and face a right-handed batter, Irvin’s numbers take a nosedive. Against righties, Irvin has allowed a .942 OPS this season. The result was heartbreakingly predictable: Romy González hit a three-run bomb, and the inning spiraled out of control. Here’s an interesting observation to fold in from a broader perspective: The Twins' starting rotation, almost exclusively right-handed the past few seasons, means the team enjoys the platoon advantage more often than any other club when their starter is in the game. This year, they’ve had the platoon advantage in 52.2% of their starter matchups, first in MLB. However, that setup also invites opposing teams to stack their lineup with left-handed bats. The downside? The Twins lack reliable left-handed relievers. In fact, while most teams gain more favorable platoon matchups when they turn to their bullpen, the Twins don’t—once again landing at that 52.2% mark. The Irvin walk exposed the flaw in this bullpen construction: when you can’t rely on your lefties to at least get lefties, the advantage evaporates. In the end, Baldelli’s logic was solid—he protected the rookie from facing a dangerous lefty for the third time, gave himself a chance to avoid the three-batter minimum trap, and put Irvin in a position to succeed. But baseball is a game of execution, and Irvin’s inability to throw strikes cost the Twins dearly. The problem wasn’t the decision-making—it was the options available. When your two left-handed bullpen arms are inconsistent at best, and one walks the one batter he can't, it’s tough to find a winning outcome.

When one thinks about what has plagued the Minnesota Twins in the dog days of this season, a few things immediately come to mind: the bats have gone cold at the worst possible time, and the bullpen has crumbled in late innings. But there's another key area that’s often overlooked—defense. Over the past two months, the Twins' fielding has become a glaring weakness, contributing just as much to their potential playoff collapse as any other issue. For the first four months of the season, the Twins boasted one of the league’s best defenses. Ranked comfortably in the top third of the MLB, Minnesota seemed to lock down the field behind their starters, turning hits into outs and runs into saves. But in August and September, the gloves fell apart. The team posted a combined -15 Outs Above Average (OAA) during that span, slipping to a lowly 27th in August and 25th in September. This is a stunning regression for a team that was so strong in the field to begin the year. But why such a steep drop-off? The simple answer lies in injuries. Defensive stalwarts Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, two Gold Glove-caliber defenders, have both missed significant time over the past couple of months. When healthy, Buxton is a game-changer in center field, covering more ground than almost anyone in baseball. Correa, meanwhile, is a vacuum at shortstop, turning would-be hits into routine outs. Without them, the Twins were forced to scramble. In Buxton’s absence, Minnesota has deployed a revolving door of replacements in center field, none of whom come close to matching his elite defensive skill set. Austin Martin, Manuel Margot, and Willi Castro have all tried to fill the void, with Castro taking on most of the load in September. While these players offer their own strengths, defensive consistency hasn’t been one of them, and the drop-off in the outfield has been evident. Similarly, Correa’s injury woes forced Willi Castro to cover shortstop for most of August. As a utility player, Castro is versatile but isn’t built for an everyday role at one of the most demanding positions on the field. The domino effect saw José Miranda thrown into the hot corner more frequently—and his defense struggled mightily, both because he's not a standout at third base, and even more so because he himself is banged up right now. At second base, Edouard Julien has also contributed to the team’s defensive woes. Julien had looked promising when called up earlier in the season, showing major strides at the position and even bolstering the Twins' middle infield. However, his play has taken a sharp decline in recent weeks. From August through September, Julien posted -6 Outs Above Average, a disappointing figure for a player who showed so much potential. His struggles have turned second base into another weak point in the defense, compounding the team’s issues. Corner outfield has not been safe from defensive miscues, either. With Max Kepler on the injured list, the Twins lost another Gold Glove-caliber defender and have replaced him with Matt Wallner, a fellow left-hander who has a cannon for an arm, but doesn't range as well in right field or manage its carom quite the way Max does. We’d be remiss not to mention the defensive impact from an unexpected area—pitcher fielding. Last year, Twins' pitchers combined for 7 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). This year, that number has flipped to -8, a drop that’s been quietly costing the team runs. Pitcher defense is tricky to evaluate since it’s a secondary responsibility, but it’s notable that Twins pitchers made big plays last year that they simply aren’t making this season. It's a small but telling part of the defensive puzzle that has broken down across the board. When we talk about Buxton and Correa, the conversation often centers around their bats—how much their absence hurts the lineup, their offensive production, and the impact of missing those big, clutch hits. But the reality is that their gloves have been just as important, if not more so, to the Twins’ overall success. This team was built on elite run prevention, and much of that was predicated on the reliability of Buxton and Correa at the two most important positions on the diamond. With both of them out, the Twins have had to shuffle through players who aren’t capable of providing the same level of defensive security. And while the bats have indeed gone silent at times, the missing gloves have hurt just as much, contributing to the slump and leaving the pitching staff with less support than they had earlier in the season. As the Twins head into the final stretch, teetering on the edge of missing the playoffs entirely, the focus will likely remain on the struggles of the lineup and bullpen. But don’t be fooled—fielding is playing a significant role in this team’s collapse. If Minnesota is going to turn things around and salvage their season, it won’t just be the bats and arms that need to step up. The gloves are going to have to find a way to rebound, too.

Heading into the 2024 trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins had a glaring issue that needed addressing: their bullpen. This wasn't some minor flaw; it was a growing concern that everyone from the front office to the fans could see. Brock Stewart’s injury was a red flag waving in the wind. He got hurt, came back, and then got hurt again. Chris Paddack, a rotation member to that point but an obvious candidate to move back to the bullpen, as he did last year, had just gone through the same pattern of return and reinjury. And after the deadline passed, Stewart would undergo surgery, perhaps never to pitch another inning for the Twins. Even more alarming was the regression of Caleb Thielbar, a once-reliable lefty who no longer had the consistency the team needed. But despite all these warning signs, the Twins sat on their hands. With a deep farm system at their disposal and clear bullpen needs, they opted to do... nothing. Well, almost nothing. Trevor Richards came aboard, but let’s be honest, he’s a name we’d all rather forget, memorable only the way a fall from a tree is if you break your ankle when it happens. The inactivity at the deadline wasn’t just about roster evaluation—it was about money. Ownership didn’t want to spend, and you could almost feel the hesitation stemming from past failures (looking at you, Jorge López). However, this cautious, do-nothing approach has backfired spectacularly. Since the trade deadline, the Twins’ bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA and 27th in WPA, only faring better than the likes of the White Sox, Pirates, and Red Sox. Simply put, it’s been a disaster, and the team is feeling the effects in the standings, now fighting to even stay in the Wild Card race. Now, let’s flip to the other side of the country and take a look at the San Diego Padres. At the deadline, they found themselves in a strikingly similar position. Their bullpen ranked 17th in ERA, just behind the Twins, who sat 14th at the time. The Padres were 59-51; the Twins, 59-48. Both teams were battling for playoff positioning. But here’s where the two clubs diverged. The Padres didn’t hesitate—they got aggressive. They brought in two of the top relievers available, in Jason Adam and Tanner Scott. It wasn’t cheap, requiring prospect capital and the risk of a trade blowing up in their faces, but the Padres’ front office believed in their scouting. And since the deadline, their faith has paid off in massive proportion. Adam has posted an absurd 0.78 ERA across 23 innings, while Scott has been rock solid, with a 2.45 ERA over 22 innings. Together, they’ve anchored a bullpen that now ranks 5th in baseball since the trade deadline. While the Twins are 21-25 post-deadline and their bullpen is bottom-five, the Padres have surged, posting the best record in the major leagues during that same span. The difference? One team decided to stand pat, and the other pushed all their chips in. Sure, the Twins could point to their past mistakes and say, “We’ve been burned before,” but at some point, caution turns into cowardice. Look, we all remember the López trade in 2022 and how that turned out. But for every López, there’s a Jason Adam or a Tanner Scott waiting to be acquired. The Padres took that chance, and it’s paying off in real time. What’s even more frustrating is that the Twins knew they had to build some depth in the bullpen, knowing Stewart wasn’t coming back and needing insurance in case other guys—like Kody Funderburk or Justin Topa—couldn’t hold up. But instead of anticipating those losses and preparing for the inevitable, they crossed their fingers and hoped things would just work out. Things didn’t. And now, here we are. The Twins are in a dogfight to even make the postseason, while the Padres are cruising into October with a fortified bullpen and a team built for the playoffs. Ownership’s lack of willingness to invest in this roster at the deadline is directly responsible for the Twins' current predicament. The aggressive approach could’ve positioned this team for a playoff run, but instead, they missed the boat. It’s not just about what could’ve been—it’s about what should’ve been. The Padres are the perfect case study in why aggression at the trade deadline matters. They believed in their scouting, made bold moves, and are now reaping the rewards. The Twins, on the other hand, played it safe. And now, they’re paying the price.

It’s no secret that the Minnesota Twins have been stumbling over the past couple of months. Despite flashes of brilliance, inconsistency has left them clinging to the final playoff spot. Frustration is mounting, and it’s easy for fans to feel resigned to another short-lived postseason or, even worse, a season that ends before October. But before we give in to pessimism, I think it’s time we look at why this team still has hope in the playoffs. One name, in particular, stands out: Pablo López. In baseball, one starting pitcher can change the course of an entire postseason. We’ve seen it before with the likes of Madison Bumgarner, who willed the Giants to a World Series in 2014, or Josh Beckett’s masterful performances in 2003 that carried his team to the title. López has the potential to be that guy for the Twins in 2024. His arm alone might just carry the Twins through a playoff series—and maybe further. Let’s rewind to last postseason, when López proved he can more than handle the spotlight. In two critical playoff starts, he allowed just one run over 12 2/3 innings, striking out 10 while helping the Twins secure both victories. His standout performance came against the Houston Astros, where he pitched seven innings of shutout baseball on the road. It was no fluke, either—López was dominant from start to finish, and absolutely blew through the reigning champions. Unlike past playoff runs, wherein the Twins have often been up against the most intimidating arms in the American League, this year’s field doesn’t feature especially daunting matchups. Gerrit Cole is no longer the untouchable force he once was. Justin Verlander isn’t the same pitcher who dominated the postseason in years past. Frankly, there’s a real argument that López is the best starter in the American League right now--or at least that, if the Twins can hold off Tarik Skubal's Tigers, he'll be the best on a playoff team. Over his last 12 starts, López has been lights out, posting a 2.11 ERA with 71 strikeouts and just 15 walks. Only Framber Valdez of the Astros has been in the same conversation during that span, and we know how the Twins handled Valdez last October. The beauty of the MLB playoff structure is that a dominant starting pitcher can change a series. In a best-of-three format, one stellar performance can put your team on the brink of advancing. In a best-of-five, that same pitcher could take the mound twice, potentially securing two of the three wins needed to move on. And in a best-of-seven? If you’ve got a guy like López, he could feasibly pitch three times in the series, delivering you to the brink of a championship almost single-handedly. These are the kinds of performances we’ve seen from legends like Bumgarner in 2014. No matter who else is on the mound for the opposing team, if you’ve got a pitcher that’s this locked in, you always have a chance. Pablo López has shown us he’s more than capable of being that guy for the Twins, offering them a clear path to success in October. His lieutenant in the rotation, Bailey Ober, only reinforces that feeling, and augments the potential value of López continuing to be brilliant. López has the makeup and the talent to step onto that mound and say, “I’ve got this,” unlike anyone they have had on the roster since Johan Santana. Don't forget, in the darkness of this late regular-season moment, the light that was his speech about accepting and embracing pressure last fall. Yes, it’s been tough watching this team struggle down the stretch, but all it takes is one legendary playoff performance to turn things around. And if there’s anyone on the junior circuit capable of delivering that, it’s Pablo López.

Just a month ago, it seemed like the Twins had a playoff spot locked up, and the Detroit Tigers weren't even on Minnesota fans' collective radar. On Aug. 16, the Twins sat comfortably at 69-53, holding a 10.5-game lead over the Tigers, who had just a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. But baseball, as it often does, had other ideas. Since then, the Tigers have surged with a 19-9 run, while the Twins have stumbled through a rough 10-18 stretch. That’s brought these teams much closer, and this two-team race has become much more fierce than anyone expected. This battle for a postseason berth feels awfully familiar to Twins fans. In fact, it’s impossible not to compare it to the unforgettable 2009 AL Central race between these very same teams—though this time, the roles are reversed. Fifteen years ago, it was the Tigers sitting comfortably in the driver’s seat, leading the AL Central for nearly the entire season. They were the favorites, much like the Twins appeared to be a month ago in 2024. Meanwhile, the scrappy, never-say-die Twins, led by the piranha style of play, hovered around .500, doing everything they could to stay in the race. Although Detroit's lead never reached the 10.5-game cushion Minnesota held in August of this year, their grip on the division seemed just as secure. On Sept. 8, 2009, Detroit held a 6.5-game lead over Minnesota with just 24 games left to play. For Tigers fans, the postseason seemed inevitable. But just like the recent reversal of fortunes in 2024, both teams took off in opposite directions down the stretch. The Twins went on a tear, winning 17 of their final 24 games, while Detroit stumbled to an 11-14 finish. This collapse set the stage for one of the most memorable moments in Twins history—Game 163. The dramatic tiebreaker, filled with tension and clutch moments, culminated in the Twins walking off the Tigers in 12 innings, clinching the AL Central crown in what felt like a destined comeback. Obviously, that was one of the things in this world too good to last. Baseball has done away with those tiebreaker contests, taking a little bit of the potential thrill out of this version of the race. Fast-forward to 2024, though, and it’s the Tigers playing the role of scrappy underdogs clawing their way back into the race, while the Twins are the team on the verge of a collapse. It’s a strange twist, especially for long-time Twins fans who remember the pain Detroit endured in 2009. Now, the tables have turned. The Twins, who once looked like a sure bet for the postseason, are desperately trying to hold on, while Detroit is playing with house money. It’s a dynamic that makes this final stretch fascinating. Can the Twins rediscover their early-season form and fend off Detroit’s late charge? Will the Tigers complete the comeback, as the Twins did to them in 2009? The tension is palpable, and the memories of Game 163 loom large as we wonder whether these two teams are headed for another dramatic finish. While the stakes are different—this isn’t a division title on the line, but rather a Wild Card spot—the drama is just as intense. The 2009 race ended in unforgettable fashion for Twins fans, with jubilation in the Metrodome. In 2024, Twins Territory will be hoping they don’t find themselves on the other side of history, watching the Tigers sneak into the playoffs at their expense. This rivalry, once again, has delivered in a way only baseball can. And while we don’t know how the story will end this time, the 2024 season has already drawn striking parallels to that fateful year. Let’s hope, for the sake of Twins fans, that history doesn’t fully repeat itself.

Marco Raya and Cory Lewis, two of the most exciting arms in the Twins system, have been promoted to Triple-A St. Paul Saints. While these late-season promotions aren't atypical and don’t necessarily guarantee where they’ll start next year, they offer a clear sign: their path to the majors is getting clearer and shorter. Marco Raya’s Rise Raya, a 22-year-old right-hander, has long been viewed as one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects. Currently ranked 10th in the organization by Twins Daily, Raya’s stock is only set to climb as players like Brooks Lee, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews move out of the rankings. Drafted in the 4th round of the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Raya’s development has been methodical. The Twins have taken extra care with his arm, bringing him along cautiously, routinely only allowing him to throw three to four innings per start. This year, he’s been with Double-A Wichita all season, where he’s shown flashes of brilliance, though control has been a recurring issue. In 92 2/3 innings, Raya has posted a decent 4.27 ERA and struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings. However, his walk rate is concerning, with a career-high BB/9 of 4.3. Despite the control struggles, Raya finished his time in Wichita on a high note, allowing one run or fewer in five of his last six starts. Now, he’ll make one more start this season—but this time, as a Saint. Cory Lewis Joins the Mix Alongside Raya is fellow right-hander Cory Lewis, currently ranked 13th on Twins Daily’s prospect list. Like Raya, Lewis is expected to rise in the rankings with the upcoming shuffle. He's had a stellar season across multiple levels, earning his late-season promotion to Triple-A. Lewis, a 9th-round pick from the 2022 draft, has been a surprising stud for the Twins' farm system. This season, he’s posted a 2.43 ERA across various levels, with a K/9 of 10.9 and a BB/9 of 4.5. His promotion marks the culmination of a breakout season that’s seen him rise from rookie ball to Triple-A in just one year. Lewis, like Raya, will likely make just one more start this season, but his ascent through the minors has him firmly on the radar for a big-league debut in the near future, especially given the fact that he will turn 24 years old next month. What’s Next? As the minor-league season winds down, Raya and Lewis find themselves on the doorstep of the majors. Whether or not they start 2025 with St. Paul or go back to Wichita remains to be seen, but the Twins clearly see them as part of the future rotation plans. What are your thoughts on these promotions? Do you see either Raya or Lewis making an impact at the big-league level next season? Let us know in the comments below!

With just over two weeks left in the regular season, the Twins are right in the thick of the Wild Card race. With their magic number sitting at 12, the Twins are in a strong position, but plenty of scenarios are still in play as they head into this crucial stretch of the season. Let’s take a look at the tiebreakers and what the Twins need to do to secure the final Wild Card spot. First, the good news: the Twins have already clinched key tiebreakers over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, thanks to their season-long head-to-head advantage against both teams. This means that neither Detroit nor Seattle can leapfrog the Twins in the standings by way of a tie. However, the Boston Red Sox still present a threat. The Twins currently hold a 2-1 lead in the season series against Boston, with three games remaining at Fenway Park next week. Depending on how those games go, there are three potential outcomes for the tiebreaker with Boston. If the Twins get swept, the Red Sox will clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Twins win two or sweep the series, they’ll claim it. If the Twins go 1-2, the teams would finish tied, and the tiebreaker would move to intradivisional records, where the Twins hold a slim advantage (28-20 in the division, compared to Boston’s 20-21 with 11 divisional games left). While that gives the Twins an edge, a strong performance against Cleveland this weekend would help solidify that path. I mapped out every possible scenario for the Minnesota Twins and how each of the Tigers, Mariners, and Red Sox would need to perform in order to overtake the Twins for the final playoff spot. Looking at all of the scenarios, here are the key takeaways as we head into the most exciting part of the baseball season: - The magic record down the stretch is likely 8-7, which would almost guarantee a Wild Card berth, requiring their competing teams to go at least 11-3 to overtake them. A 7-8 finish keeps them in good shape, but things get a little tighter if they end up 6-9 or worse. Either way, staying near .500 over these final 16 games leaves the Twins in control of their own destiny, for all intents and purposes. - This weekend’s series against Cincinnati could be pivotal. If the Twins stumble and get swept, they’d find themselves needing to go 8-5 over the remaining 13 games against tougher competition—Cleveland and Boston—to reach that magic number of 8-7 and feel secure in their playoff chances. Things could tighten up quickly if they falter at Target Field. Friday night's game didn't go well, but the Twins can't let this weekend slip away from them like they did last weekend in Kansas City. - The Twins end the season with 3 games against Baltimore. The Twins don't want to find themselves in a position where they are chasing wins in the final series of the season against a talented Baltimore team that has crushed them all season. Cashing against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Miami is their best chance to gain a playoff spot. While the second Wild Card spot is technically still in play, with the Kansas City Royals just 2.5 games ahead, the focus should be on holding off the teams behind them. Besides, the second Wild Card doesn’t offer much comfort this season, with a trip to Baltimore or New York being the "prize" in that scenario. Better to control what’s in front of them and secure the spot they’re in. With 15 games remaining, the Twins are in a good position to make the postseason, but they still have work to do. If you want to follow along with the playoff chase, head over to my Twitter (@MatthewTaylorMN), where I’m updating the Twins’ playoff outlook chart daily. How are you feeling about the Twins’ chances in the final stretch? Leave a comment below and let’s talk about it.

It wasn’t long ago that Edouard Julien seemed like one of the most promising young hitters on the Minnesota Twins. After a stellar rookie campaign in 2023, he looked like a potential fixture in the lineup for years to come. Yet, like many young players, the sophomore slump hit Julien hard. His patience at the plate—once an asset—became almost a detriment, as he found himself among the league leaders in called strikeouts. Now, however, things may be starting to shift in Julien’s favor. While the numbers don’t jump off the page at first glance, a closer look suggests that Julien could be on the verge of turning a corner. For most of the season, Julien’s chase rate has been impressively low, consistent with his reputation for superb plate discipline. But recently, there’s been a noticeable increase in the number of pitches he’s swinging at outside the zone, with his chase rate spiking to 33.3% over the past month, a stark increase from his 16.9% chase rate early in the season and 14.8% chase rate last season. For a hitter who had been so selective earlier to start his career, this might seem concerning at first glance. But instead of signaling a decline, this recent aggressiveness may actually be a sign of positive change. In fact, Julien hasn’t walked in his last 10 games—a significant departure from his usual approach. This marks only the second time in his career that he’s gone this long without drawing a free pass. However, rather than being a red flag, this shift could indicate that Julien is feeling more confident at the plate, trusting his ability to put the ball in play rather than relying solely on walks. Looking deeper into his recent performance, it’s clear that Julien has been making more solid contact, reminiscent of the line drives and well-hit fly balls we saw during his breakout last season. Before his most recent promotion in mid-August, Julien’s fly-ball rate was a high 36.4%, while his line-drive rate had dropped to 19.6%—a far cry from his 2023 numbers. Since coming back to the big leagues, he’s brought those numbers back in line with his successful rookie season. His fly-ball rate is now down to 25%, and his line-drive rate has climbed to an impressive 34.1%. This change in batted-ball profile is key. Julien is getting back to his roots, focusing on driving the ball through gaps rather than trying to elevate too much. This is evident in his BABIP, which has risen from .300 earlier in the season to .350 since his return. The numbers suggest that he’s finding more success when putting the ball in play, giving himself better chances to beat the defense. Another big factor in Julien’s resurgence has been his shift in approach. Earlier this season, his patience at the plate bordered on passivity. He led the league in called third strikes, watching too many hittable pitches sail by. In 63 games before his August promotion, Julien had racked up 39 called strikeouts, an alarming number for a hitter of his caliber. Since his return, though, he’s only been caught looking six times in 24 games. That’s a dramatic improvement, showing that he’s being more aggressive when it counts. His walk rate has dropped from 12.9% to 7.2%, but it’s important to see this in context. Julien’s decrease in walks corresponds with his willingness to swing at more pitches, both in and out of the zone. For a hitter like him, striking the right balance between selectivity and aggressiveness is key. And while his recent chase rate might seem worrisome at first glance, it could actually be a sign that Julien is starting to feel more comfortable attacking pitches and taking control of his at-bats. The next step for Julien is finding that middle ground, where he can harness his natural patience while also being assertive at the plate. We haven't seen his offensive numbers change too much yet, but with his revamped batting profile and a fresh aggressiveness at the plate, an offensive explosion may be just around the corner. What do you think? Has Edouard Julien turned a corner at the plate, or is there still work to be done? Leave your thoughts in the comments and join the conversation!

Superstitions are as much a part of baseball as peanuts and Cracker Jack. From a pitcher refusing to step on the foul line to a batter adjusting his gloves a certain way, there's always something quirky about the game. But for the 2024 Minnesota Twins, the one with the most staying power is the strangest: the rally sausage. An increasingly inedible log of summer sausage has somehow found its way into the fabric of the team, so deep as to be irremovable. Earlier this year, when the team was struggling mightily, they stumbled upon a peculiar solution. Kyle Farmer attempted to share a freebie he'd received with the team, and when it found few takes in the clubhouse, someone transported it to the dugout. After Ryan Jeffers launched a home run, the sausage was tossed to him in celebration, as if it had some mystical powers to spark offense. Incredibly, the introduction of this rally sausage aligned perfectly with a sudden surge in the Twins’ play. A team mired in that ghastly 7-13 start suddenly began winning games and hitting home runs with regularity. It became a thing. Throughout the season, the rally sausage has made appearances during both the Twins’ slumps and hot streaks. Each time, it coincided with the team turning things around at the plate. Superstitious or not, you can’t argue with the results. Everyone had quietly assumed that the thing was finally gone, though. It had slipped off the radar for the final time months ago, and though it was somewhat overblown, there was a real level of disgust and discomfort about the cased and ritualized meat even then. Fast-forward to last night. Farmer, one of the glue guys on this team, surprised everyone by revealing that the rally sausage was still alive and well (although, if it be alive, that would not be swell). Whether for its own protection or all of ours, it's now carefully protected by layers of plastic wrap and foil, like some sort of sacred artifact, but it's still there. And, sure enough, just as it had before, the rally sausage worked its magic. The Twins’ bats, which had been dormant for what felt like an eternity, suddenly came alive. Kyle Farmer, Matt Wallner, and Carlos Santana each homered, contributing to a 10-run outburst—the most runs the team had plated since Aug. 21. It was a much-needed spark for a team that had been floundering at the plate, and while the sausage didn’t hit any of those home runs, it sure felt like it played a part. Now, let's be clear: almost no one actually believes the rally sausage is the reason the Twins are hitting again. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t important. It's like when the Mighty Ducks switched jerseys in the final period of D2: The Mighty Ducks. It's like when Bugs passed around Michael's Secret Stuff at halftime in Space Jam. At the very least, it's a mental break from the season's grind. At most, it's just enough like a miracle to make you believe--or to remind you how good you really are, so you can play that way. Baseball wears its gladiators down, both physically and mentally. The 162-game season offers few opportunities for players to mentally reset, which is why when things start to spiral out of control, it can happen quickly. A long losing streak or a slump at the plate can snowball, and suddenly, a season that seemed promising begins to slip away. That’s where something like the rally sausage comes into play. It provides a distraction, a unifying symbol that can take the focus off the bad and redirect it toward something lighter, something that can bring the team together. The rally sausage has become more than just a quirky superstition for the players—it has become a symbol of camaraderie and hope. It reminds the players, and in many ways, the fans, that baseball is still just a game, and it’s supposed to be fun. When the pressure is mounting, a little levity can go a long way in helping a team loosen up and get back to playing their best baseball. But the impact of the rally sausage isn’t just felt inside the clubhouse. In many ways, it has become even more important for the fans. If you’ve spent any time on social media or in Twins message boards recently, you’ve probably noticed the mounting frustration and negativity. The fanbase, understandably, has been growing restless as the season has dragged on, with inconsistent performances. Injuries, managerial decisions, and a tightening playoff race have added to the angst. But last night, after the reappearance of the rally sausage, there was a shift. Suddenly, Twins Twitter was filled with memes, jokes, and lighthearted banter. The focus had moved away from the Pohlads' spending habits or Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen management, and instead, fans were having fun again. And that’s the beauty of baseball superstitions. They create a sense of community, something for fans to rally around. Much like the Rally Monkey for the 2002 Anaheim Angels or the Baby Shark craze that took over the Washington Nationals’ fanbase in 2019, the rally sausage is giving Twins fans something to hold onto, something to believe in during an up-and-down season. Is the rally sausage magic real? Of course not. It’s a smelly piece of meat that probably shouldn’t be within 50 feet of anyone. But it is real, in the sense that it’s bringing joy, hope, and unity to a team and a fanbase that desperately need those things. And in baseball, where the line between success and failure is often razor-thin, sometimes that little bit of belief—however irrational—can make all the difference. For the 2024 Twins, the rally sausage may not be listed on the box score, but its importance to this team is undeniable. It’s silly, it’s weird, and it’s exactly what this team needs.

Suddenly, the road to the playoffs looks bumpier than anyone in Twins Territory would like. Now, the Twins find themselves in a fight, with three teams breathing down their necks for the sixth seed in the American League: the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, and Detroit Tigers. So, let’s take a look at these teams and rank them based on their threat level to the Twins. We’ll factor in rosters, tiebreakers, strength of schedule, and any remaining head-to-head matchups that could make or break Minnesota’s postseason hopes. The Tiebreaker Situation The good news for the Twins? They’ve already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the Tigers and the Mariners. With a 7-6 season record against Detroit and a 5-2 record against Seattle, the Twins essentially hold an extra half-game cushion on these two teams. If they finish the season tied, the Twins would claim the Wild Card spot. Boston, however, is a different story. The Twins lead their season series 2-1, with three games remaining in September at Fenway Park. If the Twins avoid a sweep in that series, they will most likely secure the tiebreaker against the Red Sox, as well. In a scenario where the Sox take two of three when the Twins go there and then catch them the rest of the way, the battle for the Wild Card would come down to intradivision record--where the Twins currently hold a slight edge. Thanks, White Sox. Now, let’s break down the three teams. 3. Seattle Mariners Of the three teams chasing the Twins, the Seattle Mariners rank as the least threatening. Yes, they have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball, with a league-leading 3.55 team ERA, but their offense has been a serious weak spot all year, ranking 25th in OPS at just .675. They're going to break the team strikeout record the Twins just set last year, but they have very little power to counterbalance that. In a playoff chase where every game matters, that’s not going to cut it. Another point in the Twins’ favor is the Mariners’ grueling remaining schedule. Seattle still has seven games left against tough opponents, in the Astros, Yankees, and Padres, who are all still fighting for playoff positioning. On top of that, they face the reigning World Series champion Rangers seven times. While the Mariners could put up a fight, their offensive struggles and challenging schedule make them the least concerning of the three. 2. Detroit Tigers Coming in at number two are the Detroit Tigers—a team many wrote off after they sold at the trade deadline. Yet, since early August, the Tigers have become a sneaky threat, thanks largely to their dominant pitching. With a 2.85 team ERA since the deadline, they’ve actually had the best pitching in the American League over the last few weeks, even after dealing away Jack Flaherty. What makes Detroit a bigger threat than Seattle is their schedule. They have the third-easiest remaining slate in baseball, including five games against two of the league’s worst teams, the Rockies and White Sox. While their offense is hardly a juggernaut, ranking 24th in team OPS, the Tigers’ favorable schedule means they could pick up easy wins and close the gap. Fortunately for the Twins, they’ve already clinched the season series against Detroit, which adds a bit of breathing room. But Detroit’s surge in pitching and their remaining schedule make them a team to keep an eye on. 1. Boston Red Sox And now, we come to the biggest threat: the Boston Red Sox. Despite having the 7th-toughest remaining schedule in baseball, Boston’s high-powered offense, paired with their ability to control their own destiny, makes them the most dangerous competitor. Their offense ranks second in the league in OPS, and with sluggers like Rafael Devers and breakout star Jarren Duran, the Red Sox have the firepower to get hot and take control. Unlike Seattle and Detroit, Boston still has a head-to-head opportunity to make up ground against the Twins, with a crucial three-game series at Fenway Sept. 20-22. If Boston sweeps that series, they could at least force a stressful final week, for all involved. That, combined with their offensive firepower, makes the Red Sox the most immediate threat. With the pack tightening, the Twins can’t afford any more slip-ups. While Seattle and Detroit pose challenges, it’s the Red Sox who present the most dangerous roadblock between Minnesota and October baseball. If the Twins take care of business, they should be able to hold onto that third Wild Card, but fans would be wise to keep an eye on these three teams in the weeks to come.

The 2024 Minnesota Twins may be in a rough patch right now, but if there’s one thing baseball teaches us every year, it’s that the postseason is a fresh slate. It’s easy to feel like the sky is falling when the team is stumbling toward the finish line, but before jumping ship, consider last year's Texas Rangers—another team that looked destined for greatness, before experiencing an even worse September slump. And yet, they rebounded in time to sneak into the playoffs, get hot, and win the World Series. Let’s set the scene. Through 110 games, the 2023 Rangers sat at 64-46, riding high off a red-hot offense. The Twins, at 62-48 through the same mark in 2024, looked like they were on a similar trajectory. For a long stretch, the Twins boasted one of the top offenses in the American League. While they didn’t put up quite the numbers of the Rangers, they were a consistent threat, at one point arguably the best offense in the league. But baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Much like the 2024 Twins', the 2023 Rangers’ season took a dramatic turn for the worse in late summer. Between August and early September, the Rangers lost eight straight games and dropped 16 of 20. It was a collapse that had fans worried their playoff dreams were over. What went wrong? Injuries The Rangers were hit hard by injuries to key players like Jacob DeGrom, Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, and Adolis García. A year later, the Twins have faced a similarly brutal injury situation, with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Max Kepler, and others missing significant time. Bullpen Woes During the Rangers’ 4-16 stretch, their bullpen imploded with a 7.06 ERA and 10 blown saves, ranking worst in the American League. Sound familiar? The Twins’ bullpen, which has struggled for much of the season, has only gotten worse down the stretch. Regression Key Rangers players like Leody Tavares and Ezequiel Duran, who had carried the team through early success, went into deep slumps. The Twins have seen similar drop-offs from previously hot players, most notably Willi Castro and José Miranda. As a result, the offense has sputtered just when it’s needed most. While the Twins’ recent struggles are frustrating, they’re not unprecedented. In fact, the Rangers’ 2023 season offers a clear parallel—and a reason for hope. Despite their brutal slump, the Rangers stabilized just enough, finishing the regular season with a 14-8 run over their last 22 games. That was good enough to secure a Wild Card spot, which meant facing a difficult path with all their playoff games on the road. Yet, they thrived in the role of underdog, getting healthy at the right time and riding standout performances from their stars. Seager and García regained their elite form; Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi delivered clutch pitching; and the bullpen that had been a mess suddenly figured it out. The beauty of baseball, more than any other sport, is its unpredictability. In a three-, five-, or seven-game series, anything can happen. The Twins still have the talent to be dangerous in October. Correa is expected back soon. Pablo López, who has already proven himself as a postseason ace, could lead the rotation. Griffin Jax is one of the best relievers in the game, and Royce Lewis has shown a fearlessness that’s built for big moments. It’s easy to look at the current state of the Twins and feel like hope is fading. But just one year ago, the Rangers found themselves in an even worse spot, and went on to lift the trophy. If the Twins can stabilize in time for October, they have the pieces in place to make a run. After all, baseball is a “just get into the tournament” sport. And as we’ve seen time and again, anything can happen once you’re there.

It was a light week in the Minor Leagues with most affiliates on break along with the Major League teams. Zebby Matthews' debut with the Saints along with a Minor League Player of the Week award for Luke Keaschall were the highlights. TRANSACTIONS Connor Prielipp was activated from the 60-day IL and is active immediately with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. RHP Kyle Bischoff and LHP Christian MacLeod have been transferred from Cedar Rapids to AA Wichita. RHP Ricky Castro transferred from Low-A Fort Myers to High-A Cedar Rapids. RHP Tomas Cleto reinstated from the 7-day injured list. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Pirates 6, FCL Twins 0 It was a tough game for the FCL Twins’ offense, which was only able to muster together two hits on the day, singles from Jayson Bass and Yilber Herrera. On the other side of the ball, poor defense plagued the FCL Twins as throwing errors contributed to crooked numbers in both the second and fourth innings, giving the Pirates three runs in each of those. On the mound, Anthony Narvaez allowed seven hits across four innings, striking out five. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Yankees 2, DSL Twins 0 (Top 3 - Suspended) Not much to report on for the DSL Twins, as rain suspended the game just as the top of the third inning kicked off against the DSL Yankees. In 2+ innings, Cristian Hernandez allowed three hits and two walks, contributing to three earned runs. WEEK IN REVIEW Triple-A: St. Paul Saints Overall: 47-48 (3-0 last week) Fifth place in IL West Overview: Saints came out of the break hot with a convincing sweep on the road against the Toledo Mud Hens. Zebby Matthews had a strong triple-A debut, earning a win after throwing five innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out six. Chris Williams tied Mark Contreras for the St. Paul Saints franchise career home run record with his 43rd blast in a Saints uniform. Williams was 9-for-13 on the weekend for the Saints. Anthony Prato connected with a career-high four RBI in Saturday’s 11-3 win for the Saints. What’s Next: The Saints return home for a six-game set against the Omaha Storm Chasers. Josh Winder struggled again for the Saints in relief, allowing two hits, while walking two and giving up earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge Overall: 38-58 (2-1 last week) Fifth place in the Texas League North Overview: Wind Surge rebound from Friday night loss with a couple of stellar pitching performances to take the series over the Frisco RoughRiders. Andrew Morris continued his dominance with an excellent outing on Saturday night, throwing six innings of one-run ball. Jordan Carr had a strong outing for Wichita, pitching five innings and allowing one earned run while striking out four. Luke Keaschall was named Minor League Player of the Week after posting nine hits, two home runs, four RBI, and four runs scored to go along with zero strikeouts in four games the week prior. He also participated in the 2024 All-Star Futures Game this past Sunday. High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels Overall: 51-37 (1-2 last week) Second place in the Midwest League West Overview: After trading a win and a loss on Friday and Saturday, the Kernels dropped their rubber match on Sunday to take a weekend-series loss against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. Rubel Cespedes hit two home runs for the Kernels on Sunday in a losing effort. Cespedes was 6-for-13 with three RBI on the weekend for the Kernels. Christian Macleod was stellar for Cedar Rapids on Friday night, throwing six innings, allowing just one run, and striking out seven en route to a 2-1 victory. Darren Bowen struggled for Cedar Rapids, allowing five hits and three earned runs, while not getting out of the third inning. Ricardo Olivar also struggled, going hitless in 12 at-bats with four strikeouts. Low-A: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels Overall: 46-41 (3-0 last week) Third place in Florida State League West Overview: Mighty Mussels ride hot hitting and a stellar starting pitching outing to a weekend sweep of the Clearwater Threshers. Ricky Castro turned in a stellar start for the Mussels, tossing five innings of one-hit ball while striking out seven. Walker Jenkins stayed hot for the Mighty Mussels this weekend, going 3-for-6 with a triple and five walks in 11 plate appearances. Rixon Wingrove connected with two home runs, a double and a triple in 14 at-bats this weekend. Brandon Winokur had a tough weekend, going hitless in 13 at-bats with 10 strikeouts. Connor Prielipp pitched for the Mighty Mussels in a rehab start and threw two promising innings, only allowing one hit, while not allowing a run and striking out three. Complex League: FCL Twins 26-30 (1-3 last week) Fourth place in Florida Complex League South Yasser Mercedes had a strong week, going 7-for-13 with five extra-base hits. Bryan Acuna had a solid week as well, with two extra-base hits and two RBI across four games. Devin Kirby was a star on the mound this week, pitching 5 ⅓ scoreless innings, while striking out six. Dominican League: DSL Twins 17-16 (2-2 last week) 4th in Dominican Summer League South Irvin Nuñez connected with a home run and a double in just six at-bats last week. His seven total bases led the team. Alver Medina swiped four bases for the DSL Twins. Neftali Rodriguez finished two games for the DSL Twins this week, tossing 2 ⅔ innings without allowing a run and striking out four. PROSPECT SUMMARY #1– Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) – 3-6, 2 R, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 1 K #2 – Brooks Lee (Minnesota) – 2-9, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K #5 – Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) – 2-11, 3 K #9 – Luke Keaschall (Wichita) – 3-10, 3 R, 2 BB #10 – Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers) – 0-16, 2 BB, 10 K #11 – Simeon Woods Richardson (Minnesota) – N/A #13 – Tanner Schobel (Wichita) – 1-10, 1 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K #14 – Zebby Matthews (St. Paul) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K #17 – Connor Prielipp (Fort Myers) - 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K #18 – Yunior Severino (St. Paul) – 5-13, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K #20 – Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids) – 0-12, 1 BB, 4 K Hitter of the Week - Chris Williams (St. Paul) - 9-13, 6 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K Pitcher of the Week - Ricky Castro (Fort Myers) - 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K