Matthew Taylor

Great stuff as always, Parker. The article image cracked me up, by the way. Licking a glove full of dirt is...different...

I'm firmly in the "Plan 1" camp. I am of the mind that MadBum is a top of the rotation starter for at least the next 2-3 years, and that's worth an AAV of ~$20-21MM for me. After writing this article, and doing some additional research, I would swap Travis Shaw for Eric Thames though. So I would do MadBum, Homer Bailey, Thames, and Sergio Romo to finish out the $35MM in payroll. I think that's a really, really solid (and upgraded) team heading into 2020.

As we head into the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings, the Minnesota Twins are at $99MM in payroll with spots left to fill. With plenty of options still on the board, I will outline three viable plans to fill out the 2020 roster, and you get to play general manager and choose which one they should go with.For this exercise I will be operating under the assumption that the Twins will enter 2020 with a $135MM payroll. This would be a $15MM raise from their 2019 payroll, which is a very conservative increase given their drastic leap in revenue after a team- best 101-win season. Additionally, each plan will feature the addition of two starting pitchers, one corner infielder and one bullpen arm, ensuring that each of the Twins’ needs are taken care of. It should be noted that trades are certainly a possibility for filling out the roster for the Twins, but with so much uncertainty with projecting trades, this article will assume that all Twins’ moves will come via free agency. Let’s get started: *Dollar amount represents AAV as projected by MLB Trade Rumors and the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook* Plan 1: The Elite Starter Plan Madison Bumgarner/Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP) - $21MMHomer Bailey (SP) - $5MMTravis Shaw (3B) - $6MMSergio Romo (RP) - $3MM2020 Steamer fWAR Projection: 4.8 In Bumgarner the Twins would get a true top of the rotation starter to go along with Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. With some other savvy moves, though, the Twins can round out their offseason with good players. In this plan the Twins would sign Homer Bailey to be their No. 5 starter. After getting traded from KC to OAK last summer, Bailey put up a respectable 3.65 FIP in 73 innings. Additionally the Twins would sign Travis Shaw as their third baseman, moving Sanó to 1B. Shaw had a down year in 2019, but posted a >.800 OPS and 3.5 fWAR in each of 2017 and 2018. Finally, this plan rounds out with the Twins bringing back fan-favorite Sergio Romo. Plan 2: The Elite Offensive Plan Josh Donaldson (3B) - $22MMRich Hill (SP) - $6MMDrew Smyly (SP) - $3MMBrandon Kintzler (RP) - $4MM2020 Steamer fWAR Projection: 7.2 Similar to Plan 1 with MadBum, choosing to pursue Josh Donaldson means going cheap with the rest of their FA acquisitions. Should the Twins do so though, they could still sign two quality starting pitchers while remaining at the $135MM payroll that has been budgeted. In this plan, those two starters would be Rich Hill and Drew Smyly. Hill hasn’t eclipsed 150 innings in a season since 2007, but when he is healthy he has been a consistently good pitcher, posting a sub-4.00 ERA in every year since 2013. Smyly has always had good stuff, as evidenced by his career 23.5% K%. Poor health, lack of consistency and poor control have held him back, though. If Wes Johnson can work to get Smyly’s pitches under control, he could be a solid number five starter for the Twins in 2020. Additionally with this plan, the Twins would bring Brandon Kintzler back to Minnesota coming off of his best season in the majors with a 2.68 ERA with the Cubs. Plan 3: The Spread it Around Plan Dallas Keuchel (SP) - $13MMJulio Teherán (SP) - $9MMEric Thames (1B) - $6MMDellin Betances (RP) - $7MM2020 Steamer fWAR Projection: 4.2 In the final free agency plan, the Twins would operate under the plan of spreading out their remaining $35MM in payroll and filling all of their positional hole with good, albeit not great, players. The headline under this plan would be signing Dallas Keuchel to be their No. 3 starter behind Berrios and Odorizzi. Keuchel is not the pitcher he was when he won the Cy Young, but is coming off of a season in Atlanta where he posted a solid 3.75 ERA and has pitched in no shortage of big games. Additionally the Twins would sign 28 year old, Julio Teherán and his 119 ERA + (100 is average, higher is better). The Twins would sign Eric Thames and his .851 OPS in 2019 to be their Cron replacement, and Dellin Betances and his career 40.1% career K% as the final arm in their 2020 bullpen. According to 2020 Steamer fWAR projections, Plan 2 featuring Josh Donaldson would bring the Twins the most value in 2020, but which of these three plans excites you the most? Use the comments below to share! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

These are excellent playoff what-ifs! You are right in that I was trying to keep mine more big picture but these are really good ones. Another big playoff what if..what if Schoop started at 2B in game one instead of Luis Arraez?

It seems year after year there are always those two or three moments that, had they played out differently, could have changed the entire season for a franchise. I can’t tell you how many times I have replayed key moments in Twins history in my head, trying to imagine what could have been if a certain event had played out differently.What if Francisco Liriano never blew out his elbow in 2006? What if Phil Cuzzi (correctly) called Mauer’s line drive fair in the 2009 ALDS? What if Morneau never suffered his concussion in 2010? In today’s article I will be taking a look back at what I consider to be the three biggest “What-ifs” of the 2019 Twins season. 1. What if Byron Buxton didn’t run into the wall in Miami on Aug. 1? When Byron Buxton injured himself attempting to make a play on a deep fly ball in Miami, he was in the middle of a career season. Buxton had an OPS of .827, 100 points higher than he had ever hit in any season prior to this one. Buxton was leading the team in doubles as well as stolen bases, and providing production from the nine spot that any other team in the majors would have killed to have. Losing Buxton’s bat from the lineup was a big blow. While Jake Cave stepped up big time with his bat during Buxton’s absence in the regular season, most Twins fans will remember Cave’s strikeout looking with two outs and the bases loaded to kill the second inning rally in game three of the ALDS. While there’s no way to know how Buxton would have fared in the same spot, Byron had cut his K% to a career low 23% and posted a .912 OPS in high leverage spots in 2019 and I can’t help but think that he might have put up a better fight than Cave in that spot. Where Byron’s presence was most felt, though, was in the field. Prior to his shoulder injury, Buxton was having his best defensive season to date, posting 10 DRS in 86 games and a career best 15.7 UZR/150. The ripple effect of his defensive loss extended past center field, though, as Buxton’s injury worsened our right field defense as well. The injury forced Max Kepler into being our everyday center fielder, and while he performed admirably in this role, he was taken out of the right field role where he was performing like a Gold Glove-type fielder. 2. What if Michael Pineda Hadn't Gotten Suspended? On Sept. 7, just one month before the start of the postseason, the Twins got news that Michael Pineda had been suspended for the remainder of the baseball season for taking a banned diuretic. At the time of the suspension, Pineda was 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA with an extraordinary 3.04 ERA in nine starts after the All-Star break. I can’t help but think how the Twins’ season would have played out had Pineda not been suspended. Pineda had quickly become the Twins most consistent and reliable pitcher in their rotation and losing him was a huge disappointment, especially down the stretch when Kyle Gibson and Marin Perez were as ineffective as they were. Pineda’s absence was felt most, though, in the postseason. Prior to being suspended there was talk of Pineda possibly being the game one starting pitcher for the ALDS. His absence caused Baldelli to go to Randy Dobnak for game three, and we all know how that turned out. 3. What if the Twins had been able to match New York’s offer for Marcus Stroman? According to a report by Dan Hayes of the Athletic, the Twins had indicated Marcus Stroman as their number one target heading into the trade deadline, and had a good chance at acquiring the Duke grad. After initially turning down the Blue Jays on a deal involving Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis, though, the Blue Jays sought out other deals and eventually made a trade with the Mets without giving the Twins the chance to match New York’s offer. Had the Twins been given the chance to trump New York’s offer and acquire Stroman at the deadline, Minnesota would have added a lethal arm to their rotation who would have been a valuable asset not only for the stretch run of the 2019 season, but would have also been a key member of the rotation heading in 2020, which currently stands with Berrios and Odorizzi as its only members. What are some of your biggest “What-ifs” from the 2019 season? Let’s hear them in the comments below! Click here to view the article

I don't mind this plan at all. I wrote about this a couple weeks ago. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/a-three-step-plan-to-drastically-improve-the-twins-infield-defense-in-2020-r8616

For many, Dec. 2 represents scouring the internet on Cyber Monday, trying to find the best deal on an air fryer or a new coffee maker. For MLB teams, that date holds much more weight, as it is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Nine Twins are eligible, eight decisions are presumed locks. Then there’s C.J. Cron …Cron’s 2019 season was defined by health, and lack thereof, as his performance was directly correlated with the status of his right thumb. Prior to his July thumb injury, Cron had a nifty .821 OPS in 331 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 112 and a solid 19.3 K%. After the injury, though, Cron struggled mightily to the tune of a .700 OPS in 168 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 80 and a 25.6 K%. The chart below really illustrates well just how much his play was impacted by his injured thumb. Download attachment: Cron1.jpg The case for bringing back Cron is betting that he can come back healthy and replicate his early season success from 2019. When healthy, Cron is an above average power hitter with solid defense and a knack for scooping up low thrown balls. With a projected arbitration salary of $7.7M and no commitment beyond the 2020 season, Cron brings the Twins a tremendous amount of salary flexibility by keeping the future books clean in order to make other multi-year contracts more palatable (*cough* Zack Wheeler). Cron was seemingly well-liked in the clubhouse and should the Twins brass have confidence in Cron’s thumb heading into next season, bringing him back in his final year of arbitration makes a lot of sense. Should the Twins have confidence in Cron’s thumb, though? Earlier this month, Cron underwent a surgical debridement to clean out his right thumb. Interestingly enough, this isn’t the first time that Cron has undergone this procedure. In October of 2016, after coming off of his most successful season in the big leagues to date, Cron underwent the same surgical debridement, except on his left thumb. Looking at how Cron rebounded from his 2016 thumb debridement might give us an idea of how he might rebound from the thumb debridement he just received. Unfortunately for Cron, the results were not great as he declined in every area in the season following his 2016 thumb debridement procedure. While it’s impossible to know how much of that decline was directly related to the thumb versus general regression after a great season, the stark decline should make the Twins nervous to bring back the first baseman. Below, you can see just how much Cron regressed from 2016 to 2017. Could a similar dip in production be on the horizon for Cron next season? Download attachment: Cron2.jpg Handing out nearly $8M to a first baseman with a history of hand injuries and coming off of a procedure from which he has already shown difficulty coming back seems like a risky proposition for the Twins. Especially when there are enticing alternatives out there. I would prefer they not tender him a contract, make him a free agent and make other plans at first base in 2020. The Twins could look at the free agent market and acquire a first baseman on an affordable contract, like Eric Thames or Mitch Moreland. Additionally, we could look to move Miguel Sano across the diamond and pick up a free agent third baseman, like Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas. Finally, the Twins could look to their farm system and replace Cron with a promising prospect like Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker. Do you think the Twins should bring back C.J. Cron in his final year of arbitration? If not, how would you like to see the Twins replace him in 2020? We’d love to hear your thoughts, leave a comment below! Click here to view the article

As much as I would like to design my offseason blueprint around the Twins pushing all of their chips into the middle of the table and upping their payroll to $150 million or more, I have years and years of history telling me that isn’t going to happen.But what if the Minnesota Twins can head into 2020 with a VERY conservative $130 million payroll, still land big time players and roll into the season as a heavy favorite not only in the Central, but in the American League. Through savvy trades and leaning on a talented farm system, the Twins are in an excellent position to make this happen. Here’s how … Non-Tender C.J. Cron, replace him with Alex Kirilloff at First Base Cron’s 2019 season was truly a “tale of two thumbs”. Pre-injury Cron was looking to be a revelation for the Twins, but after his injury his OPS dropped to .700. Now entering his final year of arbitration, and with the thumb still a question mark, the $7M arbitration price is too much for me. The price tag is even more for me considering that I can replace him with Kiriloff and save $6.5M that I can put towards starting pitching (which we’ll see played out later). Kirilloff is a young bat with plenty of upside who posted a .851 OPS in his final month in Pensacola. Kirilloff will also benefit from having Marwin Gonzalez and Ehrie Adrianza on the 26-man roster who can nobly fill in at first base as needed. Trade Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach and Jhoan Duran to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Matthew Boyd — replace Rosario with Brent Rooker in Left Field While Eddie Rosario somehow received MVP votes for his 2019 performance, I continue to find myself looking at the peripheral stats and fast declining defense as a player that the Twins can afford to part ways with. That’s why I’m trading away Rosario and prospects to the Tigers in exchange for Matthew Boyd, the 28 year old starting pitcher with a devastating slider. Boyd is set to make just $6.4M in 2020 and still has three years of team control to his name. In my offseason blueprint, I will be replacing Eddie Rosario in left field with AAA prospect Brent Rooker. Rooker was dominant in AAA in 2019 when he was healthy, posting a .933 OPS with 14 home runs in 65 games. Rooker is already 25 years old and appears to be major league ready. Swapping out Rosario for Rooker allows the Twins to acquire a potentially dominant rotation arm while saving money that can be used elsewhere. Download attachment: MTlineup.png Re-sign Jason Castro to a 1 year/$6M deal Bringing Castro back on a one year deal makes too much sense. He’s a left hander which works well for platooning with Garver and he provides enough production both at the plate and behind the plate to warrant bringing him back. Download attachment: MTbench.png Sign Gerrit Cole to a 8 year/$280M deal Because of the money we saved by replacing C.J. Cron and Eddie Rosario with minimum salary prospects, the Twins are now in a place to acquire a big time salary without sacrificing as much on the books. In my offseason blueprint they will do this by signing Gerrit Cole to a 8 year/$280M contract. While our offseason handbook has Cole tabbed for a 7 year year contract at $32M a year, I believe the only way for the Twins to have a shot at signing the superstar would be to up the years 8 and AAV to $35M. By doing this the Twins will set themselves up to have a true ace in Cole to go along with elite depth in Berrios, Odorizzi and Boyd. Should the Twins be unable to get Cole to agree to a deal with Minnesota, that $35M could be used to sign two of Wheeler, Ryu or Bumgarner, which would hardly be something we could be disappointed with. For this exercise though, the Twins nab Cole. Download attachment: MTrotation.png Sign Sergio Romo to a 1 year/$3M deal The Twins bullpen had an up and down year in 2019, but finished the regular season on an incredibly high note. I will look to keep the bullpen together to start the 2019 season knowing that I have arms in the farm system as well as plenty of trade targets throughout the season that I can always acquire if I need to. Sergio Romo is as consistent and reliable of a reliever as you can ask for, and for just a one year deal at $3M, I’m ecstatic to bring the fan favorite back to Target Field in 2020. Download attachment: MTbullpen.png With all of the previous moves taken into account, here is how final payroll will look: Starting Lineup: $33.7MBench: $18.6MStarting Rotation: $64.3MBullpen: $13.2MPerez Buyout: 0.5M$130.3 Opening Day 2020 Payroll The odds of the Minnesota Twins upping their payroll to the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees is next to zero. It won’t happen. But should the Twins decide to get creative by making strategic cuts and trades, they could up their payroll to a more conservative and realistic $130M and still make impactful moves that would put them in the driver's seat of the American League. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. Click here to view the article

Thanks for reading, John. These are all great points. I'm not sure there's a huge difference in arm strength needed between shortstop and third base, with the higher degree of difficulty throws coming from shortstop. Also, we often have our 3B alone on the left side of the infield, requiring a rangier 3B. I think Polanco fits that bill. I agree we should give Polanco a shot at third in Spring Training. That's why the trade route works better than signing a free agent. We can swing the trade at any point if we see that Polanco can handle the hot corner well. The nice thing with Ahmed is that he's just on a one year deal which could fit in with Royce Lewis's timeline of being an everyday player with the Twins (provided he comes up as a SS which is no lock).

In 2019 the Twins finished in the bottom third in Major League Baseball in errors, fielding percentage, DRS and UZR. Poor infield defense was a big reason for this, as evidenced by its -25 DRS, and should be addressed this offseason. In this article I will be laying out my three-step plan to dramatically improve the Twins’ infield defense.Step 1: Acquire a Shortstop In 2019, while he was masterful at the dish, Jorge Polanco had a woeful year in the field. Overall, Polanco committed 22 errors (second most in baseball at any position) and posted a UZR of -9.1 (second worst in baseball at any position). His poor year in the field was no outlier, as Polanco has posted a negative UZR and DRS in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018 as well. Acquiring a shortstop should certainly be something that Falvey and Levine look to accomplish this offseason. Listed below are free agency and trade targets the Twins could look at this offseason. Any one of them would be a drastic defensive improvement over Polanco at shortstop and would greatly boost the overall infield defense for Minnesota: *Statistics shown below are from 2019 Free Agency José Iglesias - .288/.318/.407 | 5.9 UZR / 8 DRSTradeNick Ahmed (Diamondbacks) - .254/.316/.436 | 1.9 UZR / 18 DRSTrevor Story (Rockies) - .294/.363/.554 | 8.6 UZR / 17 DRSFrancisco Lindor (Indians) - .284/.335/.518 | 6.4 UZR / 9 DRSFrom the players listed above, my preference would be to go after Nick Ahmed. As an impending free agent, the two-time reigning Gold Glove-winning shortstop would cost the least of the bunch, and Arizona has already shown its willingness to part with its stars. With a 2020 salary of just $7M, Ahmed is a low-cost option who would greatly improve the Twins’ infield defense without hindering their chances of signing pitching this offseason. Step 2: Shift Jorge Polanco to Third Base Acquiring a defensive minded shortstop would mean that the Twins could shift Jorge Polanco to third base. Moving from shortstop to third base is certainly not unheard of in baseball as it is widely accepted as an easier position to play. Third base requires less range, turning fewer double plays, and requiring less arm strength than throws from deep in the shortstop hole. Additionally, third basemen simply handle fewer plays than shortstops. Last season, Twins third basemen were faced with 426 fielding chances while Twins shortstops were faced with 616. Shifting the Dominican star to third base would allow him to play an easier position that faces fewer chances and allow him to continue focusing on mashing at the plate. This move would also improve the Twins’ third base defense as Miguel Sanó has been a defensive liability at third base since entering the league. According to advanced fielding metrics, Sanó has been a below-average third baseman in every season since joining the Twins and is coming off of his worst defensive season in 2019. We have only a limited sample size of what Polanco looks like playing third base, but with his experience at a more challenging position and the low bar of Sanó’s third base defense, I would expect a big improvement. Step 3: Shift Miguel Sanó to First Base Now that we have improved the Twins’ shortstop and third base defense, we can wrap up our infield defensive revamp by shifting Miguel Sanó to first base. First, this move would allow the Twins to non-tender C.J. Cron, save that salary and put it toward acquiring a good-fielding shortstop. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Cron is expected to fetch $7.7M in arbitration salary for 2020. Second, the Twins would be able to move Sanó to an easier defensive position where he is less likely to cost the Twins. Albeit in a limited sample of 223 major league innings, Miguel Sanó has proven to be an average defensive first baseman which is a stark improvement over his train wreck defense at third base. Finally, moving Sanó to first base would greatly improve his odds of staying healthy. First base is a much less taxing position to play, and keeping the 26-year-old more stationary in the field would go a long way toward keeping him, and his bat, healthy long-term. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. Click here to view the article

For those questioning the exclusion of Kurt Suzuki. There were two reasons why: He played 3 seasons with the Twins and appeared at catcher 348 times (compared to 4 seasons with 313 appearances for Mauer).Suzuki was worth a total of -1.1 fWAR for the Twins in his 3 year run with the team, never posting a single season above 0.0 fWAR. Garver had the greatest single season of any Twins catcher in the decade so he got my honorable mention.

The 2010 decade for the Minnesota Twins was one for the memory books. Target Field opened. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios debuted. We said goodbye to Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. The decade closed with the record-breaking Bomba Squad, and with the Twins getting swept by the Yankees (again).The decade of 2010-19 brought two division pennants, three playoff berths and a zero playoff wins. In total, the Twins finished the decade with a record of 765-855 and -438 run differential, both good for 23rd in the Majors. Here's my take on the Twins All-Decade team from the 2010s. After reading through my team, I would love to hear your thoughts what gripes you have with my selections. Without further ado ... C: Joe Mauer (2010-18) 1,159 Games.788 OPS24.0 fWARThe future Hall of Famer was the team MVP for the Minnesota Twins in the 2010s decade, leading the team in games played, batting average (min. 600 PAs), RBI, runs and WAR. It’s hard to come up with enough stats to quantify just how much Mauer meant to the Twins and to the state of Minnesota. While Mauer split the decade pretty evenly between catcher and first base, I put him as the catcher so that I could put in the next guy as our first baseman. Honorable Mention: Mitch Garver 1B: Justin Morneau (2010-13) 411 Games.791 OPS5.3 fWARWhile he didn’t have enough healthy seasons in his career to make it into Cooperstown, Morneau is certainly another Twins all-timer. Morneau peaked at the end of the 2000s, but did enough to be the first baseman for the 2010s all decade team. Morneau was in the middle of a possible second MVP season prior to his concussion in 2010 that ended his season in July. Honorable Mention: Joe Mauer 2B: Brian Dozier (2012-18) 955 Games.772 OPS22.5 fWARArguably the most underappreciated Minnesota Twin in recent memory, when I looked back on Dozier’s stats over the decade it struck me how truly impactful he was at the plate year after year. Dozier hit 49 more home runs than any other Twins player over the course of the decade and paced the team with 98 stolen bases. Dozier posted an All-Star Game appearance, competed in the Home Run Derby and somehow won a Gold Glove. Honorable mention: Luis Arraez SS: Jorge Polanco (2014-19) 441 Games.783 OPS7.2 fWAREven with just 441 games played, I decided on Polanco for the All-Decade team because of his consistency appearing as a shortstop for the Twins. Players like Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez certainly performed admirably at shortstop and the plate over the decade for the Twins but played so many different areas across the diamond that they didn’t qualify as a shortstop for me. Polanco has now posted three separate seasons with a .750 OPS or better and just completed his most successful season as a Twin, leading the team in WAR and starting for the AL in the All-Star Game. Honorable mention: Eduardo Escobar 3B: Miguel Sano (2015-19) 486 Games.836 OPS8.5 fWARSano led all Twins third basemen this decade in home runs and WAR, even though he played 237 less games than his predecessor, Trevor Plouffe. Concerns surrounding his health and strikeout tendencies have been well documented, however, incredible strides were made in 2019 that point towards a bright future for Sano as a potential cornerstone for the Twins. Honorable mention: Trevor Plouffe LF: Eddie Rosario (2015-19) 640 Games.788 OPS10.5 fWARDeciding between Josh Willingham and Rosario as the left fielder for the Twins all-decade team was the most challenging decision that I had to make in this exercise. Willingham posted a higher OBP, OPS and wRC+ than Rosario in the decade, punctuated by his Silver Slugger season in 2012 when he posted an .890 OPS and hit 35 home runs. I decided on Rosario, though, because of his longevity with the team. Rosario played in twice as many games as Willingham this decade, hit for a better average and slugging percentage, hit more home runs and RBI, posted 5.0 more WAR and became the face of the "Bomba Squad” in 2019. Honorable mention: Josh Willingham CF: Byron Buxton (2015-19) 393 Games.706 OPS7.4 fWARThe former No. 1 overall prospect in the Majors had arguably the highest expectations ever for a Twins player coming into the majors. Much of his time on the Twins this decade has been marred with injuries and struggles at the plate. His consistent struggles have left many Twins fans wondering if Buxton will ever be the player that we all hoped that he could be. That being said, he is still the starting center fielder on my All-Decade team for the Twins. It says a lot about Buxton’s game and his immense talent and skill that he could have so many strikes against him in Twins nation, but still post a 7.4 fWAR and be the best center fielder of the decade. Honorable mention: Denard Span RF: Max Kepler (2015-19) 553 Games.763 OPS9.8 fWARJust two seasons with the Minnesota Twins in the 2010s wasn’t enough for Cuddyer to make the cut as the right fielder on the All-Decade team. That honor, instead, belongs to Max Kepler. It’s hard to believe that the young German-born lefty has already played in 553 games, but his trajectory of improvement has been such that it’s really exciting to imagine where he could be when this article is written again about the 2020s All-Decade team for the Twins. Kepler’s 9.8 fWAR was fourth on the team in the 2010s. Honorable mention: Michael Cuddyer DH: Nelson Cruz (2019) 120 Games1.031 OPS4.3 fWARWhile I disqualified Cuddyer and Willingham for not playing enough with the Twins, Nelson Cruz’s 2019 season superseded any self-imposed rules that I made for myself. Anytime you post a 1.031 OPS and 4.3 WAR in your age 39 season, you make the All-Decade team. That’s my new rule. Honorable mention: Jim Thome Util: Eduardo Escobar (2012-18) 671 Games.729 OPS8.5 fWAREscobar was another Minnesota Twin that was underrated in my book. As a utility man, Escobar spent time in a Twins uniform playing second base, third base, shortstop and outfield. Save for 2016, Escobar saw his OPS increase in every season that he was in Minnesota, peaking in 2018 when he was traded to Arizona. In the 2010s decade with the Twins, Escobar ranked inside the top five on the team in hits, doubles and WAR. Honorable mention: Eduardo Núñez Starting Pitcher: Jose Berrios (2016-19) 596.2 Innings Pitched4.21 ERA9.9 fWARThough he had only three impactful seasons with the Minnesota Twins, Berrios was the best starting pitcher the Twins had in the 2010s. He has had an ERA under 4.00 in each of the past three years and has been an all-star the past two seasons. Berrios led all Twins starting pitchers (min. 450 IPs) in K/9 and has become the ace of this pitching staff. The next step for Berrios will be for him to maintain his April-August production into September and October. Honorable mention: Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana Relief Pitcher: Glen Perkins (2010-17) 342.2 Innings Pitched3.18 ERA120 Saves6.2 fWARIt’s easy to forget just how dominant of a relief pitcher Glen Perkins was for the Twins this past decade. After converting to a relief pitcher in 2010, Perkins became the full-time closer for the Twins in 2012. A three-time All-Star, Perkins collected 120 saves in just over four seasons, posting a save percentage of 83%. Perkins was the man during a really challenging time for the Twins and he ensured the Twins could close out any potential win opportunities there were. Honorable mention: Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Offseason Handbook Preview: Everything You'll Find Inside — 4 Under-the-Radar Relievers Who Could Help in 2020 — Assessing Eddie Rosario's Trade Market Click here to view the article

Dyson has one year of arbitration remaining. I believe the Twins will non-tender him and he will be a free agent and sign elsewhere. His surgery has a 12 month recovery timeline. I doubt that he pitches at all in 2020.

If you read my article last week on the 2019 Minnesota Twins bullpen, then you already know my thoughts on how the season went. It was a roller coaster ride for the ages. For my article today, though, I will be moving past 2019 and looking ahead to the offseason. I will be looking at where things currently stand for the Twins bullpen, what decisions need to be made, and what potential arms could be acquired on the free agent market as I look to build what I believe should be the Twins bullpen on opening day of 2020. Let’s dive right in... As we start our process for building the Twins 2020 Opening Day bullpen, we first need to establish how many arms will make up the group of relievers. In case you hadn’t heard, 2020 will be the first season where teams will employ a 26-man active roster (previously 25). With that in mind, I assume the opening day roster will shake out like this: 9 starting batters 4 bench players 5 starting pitchers 8 bullpen pitchers Now that we have established how many spots we have for our bullpen we can begin assigning names to those spots. Locks: Taylor Rogers ( L ) Trevor May ( R ) Tyler Duffey ( R ) Zack Littell ( R ) Cody Stashak ( R ) None of these names should be a surprise at this point. They all did enough to prove that they are worthy of being in the bullpen on opening day of 2020. There’s a chance that Stashak or Littell could pitch themselves out of favor in 2020 if they regress, but given their ages and their progress as the season went on, I don’t expect that to happen. Of note regarding these five names: only Trevor May is not under team control for the next two seasons following 2020. Question Mark: 6. Sergio Romo ( R ) As an impending free agent, Romo is no sure thing to be back with the Minnesota Twins. With that being said, I do think that there is mutual interest for him to come back to Minnesota on another one year deal. From the Twins’ point of view, Romo was very effective in his 23 innings with the Twins, posting a 3.18 ERA and completely shutting down right handed hitters, holding them to a .205 batting average. From Romo’s point of view, Minnesota seems to be a good fit for him as well, he quickly became a fan favorite at Target Field this year, he figures to have a prominent role in the bullpen again next season and, well, there’s this…I’ve got Romo slotted as the 6th member of the 2020 bullpen. The Long Man: 7. Randy Dobnak ( R ) There are four potential names that could fill the “long man” spot in the bullpen to start the 2020 season: Smeltzer, Thorpe, Gibson and Dobnak. I ended up going with Dobnak. First, I believe that the Twins will cut ties with Gibson. I do think that this spot would be Gibson’s if he was willing to reduce his role to a reliever, but I believe another team will offer Gibson a contract to be their starter and he will leave Minnesota. Lewis Thorpe is someone that I believe the organization has hopes of being their long term starter, with which I agree — he should start 2020 as a starting pitcher either with the Twins or at Rochester. That left me with deciding between Dobnak and Smeltzer. While Smeltzer got much of the long man work through the final months of the 2019 season, and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see another “Rochester shuttle” situation, I think that Dobnak did enough in 2019 and has the minor league track record to prove that he’s worthy of getting the first look. The Final Spot: 8. ??? This spot was originally supposed to be Sam Dyson’s, but we all know how that turned out. As a result, we need to find an 8th reliever for the bullpen. I’m going to leave my selection until the end, after parsing out all of the various options. First we’ll take a look at the internal options, then take a look at the free agent market, and we’ll make a decision. Of note: Up to this point our Twins bullpen has 6 right handers and 1 left hander. The preference will be to assign a lefty to our final bullpen spot. Internal Options Devin Smeltzer ( L ) - See above. Smeltzer is a solid option for the 8th spot in our bullpen. He would provide a lefty arm and performed admirably for the Twins in 2019, posting a 3.86 ERA in 49 innings, although his 4.58 FIP and 7.0 K/9 suggest that he may not be as good as his numbers appear on the surface. Brusdar Graterol ( R ) - Brusdar showed that his stuff was legit in limited innings with the Twins in 2019. His velocity and strikeout rate certainly lived up to the billing. I do believe, though, that he will start the 2019 season in AAA as he builds up his arm strength to join the club as a starting pitcher in 2020. It’s possible that Graterol could be a reliever eventually, but not in 2020. Trevor Hildenberger ( R ) - Crazy how quickly things can change in the MLB, huh? Just two years ago at this time we were counting on Hildy to be the relief arm of the future for this team, but after injuries and poor performance have derailed his last two seasons, I find it hard to imagine him starting 2020 anywhere other than the minor leagues. Fernando Romero ( R ) - See Hildenberger, Trevor. Poor performance from 2019 doesn’t lend any confidence in putting a once promising bullpen prospect into the 2020 opening day plans for the Twins. Free Agent Options Will Smith - SF Giants ( L ) - The 30 year old southpaw from San Francisco is the top left handed reliever option in free agency this year. Smith is coming off a great season in which he produced a 2.76 ERA and 13.2 K/9 in 65 innings of work. While he fills a need of another strong lefty reliever in the bullpen, I’m not sure that the Twins will pay the ~$8-10M/year premium that it will cost to sign him when they have a bigger need in the rotation. Jake Diekman - Oakland Athletics ( L ) - The flame throwing left hander, Diekman, is certainly another enticing free agent option for the Twins the offseason. The career 3.90 ERA and 11.2 K/9 numbers are very solid and would be a welcome addition to this Minnesota Twins bullpen. He should not be the final arm in this bullpen, though, as there is another lefty who will be a better fit for the 2020 Minnesota Twins. Which leads me to… Drew Pomeranz - Milwaukee Brewers ( L ) - Pomeranz was a longtime starter who was converted to a full time reliever this summer after being acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline. This change unlocked a dynamite arm who helped lead the Brewers to a wild card crown this season. Now an impendending free agent, I think he would be an excellent addition to this Minnesota Twins team, and shouldn’t be as costly as the Will Smith’s of the world. He is a left handed arm that destroys left handed hitters, which this team does not currently have outside of Taylor Rogers. In his career, Pomeranz has allowed left handed hitters to hit for a .626 OPS in 208 innings, including an outstanding .512 OPS against lefties as a relief pitcher. Drew Pomeranz is number 8 in my 2020 Twins bullpen. What are your thoughts on the 2020 Opening Day bullpen that I built? Please let me know in the comments below.

Thanks for reading! If we want to account for league effects, then ERA- is a good stat to look at. These numbers also show that the pitchers' careers are very comparable. In the first stat that I looked at for first ten years in the league, Verlander had a 82 ERA- and MadBum had an 83 (lower is better). For the other stat I looked at of years 8-10, JV had an ERA- of 97 and Bum had an 87. The point about innings pitched is very well taken. Bumgarner definitely ran into some injury issues, failing to eclipse 130 IP in 2017 and 2018. He did put together a fully healthy 2019 campaign, though, which is a good sign.

Completely agree. Only saying that there is potential that signing MadBum could have Verlander-type upside.

I think it's actually a really strong crop of FA arms this offseason. Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu and MadBum are all top of the rotation type arms. There is also some really nice depth with Odorizzi, Pineda, Miley, and Hamels.

For the first time in a long time the Minnesota Twins are entering the offseason in a prime position to sign top of the market starting pitchers. While Twins fans are (understandably) fantasizing about the prospect of signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, I’m here to discuss another free agent starting pitcher who I believe would be more likely to come to Minnesota, would cost significantly less, and could be the next Justin Verlander...Madison Bumgarner. When looking at the peripheral career trajectories of Bumgarner and Verlander, the similarities between the two are undeniable - starting pitchers in their 30s who debuted at a young age and are both multi-year all stars with playoff experience. Verlander was 34 years old with 12 years of big league experience when he was traded to the Astros while MadBum is 30 years old with 10 years of big league experience as he enters free agency. The Verlander acquisition obviously worked out wondrously for the Astros, so in this article I’ll be digging deeper into the careers of these two pitchers to find out if there could be some Verlander-type upside with the Twins signing Madison Bumgarner this offseason. Years 1-10 The first thing I wanted to look at when comparing these two star pitchers was where Verlander was at in his career through his first ten full seasons in the MLB, as Bumgarner just finished his tenth full season. If these numbers showed that Verlander was a drastically better pitcher than Bumgarner, then this whole exercise would be moot, but as you can see in the chart above, this is not the case. The numbers actually show that through their first 10 full seasons, Bumgarner has been the better pitcher, according to ERA, FIP and K/9. That this is the case allows us to further dig into this comparison and see if we can continue to project Verlander’s career arc onto Bumgarner. Years 8-10 The next thing that we should look at when comparing Verlander and Bumgarner was their performance in years 8-10 of their careers. At the time of the trade deadline when Twins fans were discussing the prospect of trading for MadBum, the criticism that I heard from many was that Bumgarner is no longer the pitcher that he used to be and that he has now settled into a new phase of his career. While Bumgarner has experienced a dip in his numbers the past three years, the drop is smaller than what most folks made it out to be, and is a very similar drop to Verlander’s in his years 8-10. Years 11-14 Since the past stats for Verlander and Bumgarner that we analyzed seem to follow a similar trajectory, it’s worth giving a look at how Verlander performed in his years 11-14 to get an idea of what the next three years of Bumgarner could look like if everything breaks right, like they did with Justin. As you can see above, Verlander improved in every way in years 11-14 of his career, dropping his ERA a full run and raising his K/9 a full three strikeouts from the previous three seasons. What changed for Verlander to cause his numbers to improve so much, so late in his career? Changing teams. Half way through 2017, Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros, an organization that values numbers and analytics and has shown time and time again it’s ability to work with pitchers and get the very most out of their talent. The new regime of the Twins front office has acted in a very similar way, putting a huge priority into analytics and talent development. While the sample size with Wes Johnson as pitching coach has only been one season, I definitely think it’s reasonable to assume that Johnson could have an impact on Bumgarner similar to the impact that Houston’s organization and pitching coach, Brent Strom, had on Verlander. Justin Verlander is a future hall-of-fame pitcher that the Astros acquired in spite of him having some down years through the middle of his career. They saw his track record and believed that they could get him back to the Cy Young pitcher that he once was. I truly believe that the Minnesota Twins could do a similar job in using their player development and infrastructure to turn Madison Bumgarner back into a star and earn him another World Series MVP honor. This time in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Nice piece, Cooper! I'll be fascinated to see how the Twins see (or don't see) Sano fitting into their long term plans.