Matthew Taylor

You're definitely right and thanks for calling that out. I certainly intended to use the word "support" rather than "prove". I didn't use Ryu as an example just because he didn't come to the majors until he was 26 so using his stats in South Korea were more of a challenge. Cole didn't have his best season at age 26 but seems to have hit his peak at ages 27-28. The aging curve isn't perfect and correct in 100% of instances but is a general curve of the history of baseball. Being a year or 2 around the aging curve certainly helps support the aging curve as well even if it wasn't exactly at age 26.

While the Twins struck out on signing an “impact” starting pitcher via free agency this offseason, they still do possess an impact starting pitcher of their own heading into the prime of his career — José Berríos. What does history tell us about starting pitchers entering their age-26 season in the majors? Let’s discuss!The aging curve for starting pitchers in baseball probably looks like what you would expect. Starters come into the league with flaming velocity and a high walk rate, their stats improve as they age until they peak, and then we see a steady statistical decline from that peak until the end of their career. What age does that peak come, though? Download attachment: Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png As you can see from the graph above from Fangraphs, the peak age for starting pitchers comes at 26. It’s after age 26 that pitcher velocity and strikeout rates begin to really decline and walk rates and FIP begin to steadily rise. It’s at age 26 that we can expect top performance from starting pitchers, which is good for Twins fans as their ace heading into the 2020 season, José Berríos, will turn 26 in May. Until this point in his career, Berríos has improved each season and followed the general aging curve shown in the graph above. His velocity (slightly) and walk rate (greatly) have declined while his strikeout rate and FIP have improved in each season. If Berríos continues to follow the aging curve that he has followed throughout his career, we could be looking at a peak Berríos season in 2020. Another thing that I looked at while I was studying the starting pitcher aging curve was to look at other recent examples of starting pitchers and how their age 26 season compared to the rest of the career. For this exercise I looked at starting pitchers who were free agents this season as we have them all fresh in our minds. Download attachment: BumStrasDK.jpg In the graph above I compiled statistics from Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg and Dallas Keuchel before, during and after their age-26 season to see how they compared. I highlighted in green when their age-26 stats represented a “peak” meaning they improved upon their career stats up until their age-26 season as well as showed a career decline in that statistic following their age-26 season. As you can see, most of these players posted career bests in their age-26 season, supporting our aging curve discussed above to be an accurate depiction of a pitcher’s career. So what does this mean for José Berríos? To this point in his career, José Berríos has posted a 4.21 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Expecting Berríos to improve on those career statistics in 2020 seems like a certainty. But just how much will he improve? If he can continue on his career trajectory and follow the starting pitcher aging curve, I think we should all be really excited about what next season could bring for the Puerto Rican right-hander. He could really be the ace that we were unable to acquire in free agency. What do you think we can expect from José Berríos heading into 2020? Leave a comment below to start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Yeah it's hard to say. He really didn't miss any games until they shut him down in the middle of September. Not to say he wasn't playing through an injury throughout the season, but who's to say.

Nice article, Nate. Very well written and great arguments (especially surrounding the defensive stuff). One thing that needs to be discussed about Josh Bell is just how different his season from June through the end of the season compared to his hot start: Beginning of season through May 31 (242 PAs): .343/.405/.704 (1.109) -- 178 wRC+ June 1 through end of season (371 PAs): .232/.342/.476 (.818) -- 107 wRC+

Homer Bailey's IP before the 2019 season (when he pitched 163 innings): 2018: 106.1 2017: 91.0 2016: 23.0 2015: 11.1 There needs to be more pitching acquired. Homer Bailey simply can't be counted on to give you 150 innings in 2019. If he gets injured in April and no other moves are made you are left with Berrios, Odo, and prospects. I truly believe an impact trade is still coming.

Matt Braun did a really nice job writing about what made Stashak so special in 2019 a couple of months ago. http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/cody-stashak-was-more-than-just-a-command-wizard-in-2019-r8537

Additional discussion question: Of Wisler, Stashak and Littell, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of moving into a consistent high leverage role in 2020?Of May, Duffey and Rogers, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of taking a step backwards and moving down into a consistent low leverage role in 2020?For me, I think Zack Littell has the best chance of becoming a top-flight reliever for Minnesota next year. He already saw a 2 MPH increase in his fastball from 2018 to 2019 and at just 24 years old I wouldn't be surprised if he sees another velocity jump (and K% jump) in 2020. From July 21 to September 14 Littell appeared in 11 games without allowing an ER. For guy looking to take a step backwards, I think it could potentially be Tyler Duffey. He was elite in 2019, but his track record before that is still so shaky so it wouldn't completely shock me if five years from now we all look back and say "remember that year in 2019 where Tyler Duffey was randomly amazing?". I think he'll be really good again in 2020, but if I'm reaching for a potential step-backwards guy, he's my pick.

After the signings of Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, the Twins’ bullpen appears to be set for 2020. But what will the pecking order be for the bullpen next season? Let’s dig in and talk about it.Heading into 2020, rosters will be expanded to 26 players, and most likely the Twins will divide up their roster to have thirteen position players and five starting pitchers. That leaves eight arms in the bullpen for us to figure out how they will fit into the pecking order. I will rank them in order from lowest leverage guys to highest. In 2019 the Twins had 26 players pitch out of the bullpen so obviously the bullpen pecking order will be continuously changing, but for the purpose of this exercise I’ll work out what I believe will be the order on opening day. Honorable Mentions A few guys that I don’t believe will make the Opening Day bullpen but should end up in the bullpen at some point. Ryne HarperFernando RomeroJorge AlcalaLewis ThorpeDevin SmeltzerSean PoppenThe Lowest of Leverages8. Matt Wisler The first move that the Minnesota Twins made this offseason was claiming RHP Matt Wisler off waivers from the Mariners. Wisler was a former highly regarded prospect who had yet to break out in the majors. He had a disappointing 5.61 ERA in 2019, but his 63/16 K/BB ratio is certainly appealing. The Twins handing Wisler a guaranteed contract makes me think he will make the Opening Day roster, however I don’t think he will be entrusted in any scenario other than the lowest of leverage spots to begin the year. Like, Twins are up 13-2 in the seventh inning-type spot. Low Leverage 7. Cody Stashak Stashak was a surprise breakthrough for the Minnesota Twins bullpen in 2019. While he had been a great pitcher in each of his stops in the minor leagues, he didn’t show any signs of struggle adjusting to major league hitters. Stashak faced 104 batters with the Twins in 2019 and walked just one (!) of them. Stashak is still young and doesn’t quite have the track record of the other bullpen arms, leaving him in a low leverage spot to start the 2020 season. Medium Leverage 6. Zack Littell At this time last year, Twins nation was all up in arms over the lack of impact additions to the bullpen by the front office. If at that time I told you that the Minnesota Twins “medium leverage” bullpen pitcher would be a guy who threw up a 2.68 ERA and a 172 ERA+ the year prior you would be absolutely thrilled. That’s the position that this Twins’ bullpen is in now. Littell was outstanding for the Minnesota Twins in 2019, but with the amount of depth in this bullpen, he’s in a position where he is sixth in the bullpen pecking order and expected to be a medium leverage guy. Medium-High Leverage/Platoon Guys 5. Tyler Clippard When the Twins signed Clippard last week, they acquired a two-time All-Star with over 10 years of big league experience. Clippard has a career 3.14 ERA and is coming off of a great season with Cleveland where he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. What makes Clippard extremely valuable for the Twins is that even though he is a RHP by biology, he acts as a lefty, allowing a career .187 BA to left-handed hitters. I expect Clippard to be a sixth- or seventh-inning pitcher and be called upon to face left-handers in medium-high leverage situations in 2020. 4. Sergio Romo While Tyler Clippard has shown extreme success against lefties throughout his career, Sergio Romo has done the same against right-handed hitters. In his career, Romo has allowed righties to hit just a .577 OPS compared to .677 OPS for lefties. I expect both Clippard and Romo to work in similar roles in 2020 as medium-high leverage/platoon guys, dominating opposing lefties and righties respectively. High Leverage 3. Trevor May A once-promising starting pitching prospect for the Minnesota Twins, Trevor May has finally put it all together in the bullpen over the past two seasons. Working under Wes Johnson, May was able to get his average fastball velocity up to 95 MPH, which he threw a whopping 62% of the time in 2019. With a K% of 30, the Twins will need to count on May in big spots in 2020, and I have confidence that he will come through. 2. Tyler Duffey There was no bigger revelation on the entire Minnesota Twins team in 2019 than Tyler Duffey. Coming into the 2019 season, Duffey had a career 5.46 ERA. In 2019, though, Duffey quickly pushed himself into the upper echelon of relief pitchers in all of baseball with his 2.50 ERA, .201 BAA and 34.4 K%. Duffey was frequently called upon as the “fireman” in 2019, and I expect him to be further cemented in as a high leverage pitcher in 2020. The Highest of Leverages 1. Taylor Rogers There aren’t enough superlatives to discuss how good Taylor Rogers was in 2019, finishing the season with a 2.61 ERA, 32.4% K%, and 2.1 fWAR (second best in American League). Additionally, Rogers was excellent in high leverage positions, being thrown in to 50 games where he faced high leverage situations, he allowed just a .626 OPS. Rogers is the cream of the crop in terms of baseball relief pitchers and he will undoubtedly be first in the Twins bullpen pecking order heading into 2020. What are your thoughts on the bullpen pecking order that I laid out? Any changes or disagreements? Do you have a good feeling for where the bullpen is at in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

In 2015, the Kansas City Royals mortgaged away their future in order to win their first World Series in 30 years. Heading into 2020, the Minnesota Twins have to face a similar question. Is it worth selling away the future in order to capitalize on the present?After coming off of a Cinderella season in 2014 which saw them come one game shy of winning the World Series, the Royals made the conscious decision to push all of their chips to the middle of the table in 2015 and gun for a title. Let’s dive into how the Royals were aggressive in pushing for short-term success and how it impacted them in the long run. The first way that the Royals were extremely aggressive in pushing for short-term success was through their free agency spending. The Royals upped their opening day payroll from 2014 to 2015 by $21.6MM after signing the likes of 34-year old Álex Ríos, 32-year old Kendrys Morales and 31-year old Edinson Vólquez to sizeable contracts. While Morales and Vólquez were instrumental in their championship run, all three players aged quickly and did not contribute to the club past 2015. The jump in short-term spending also hampered their ability to keep some of their young stars like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer who all left in free agency just two years later. Additionally, the Royals mortgaged away much of their long-term success via the trade route at the deadline in 2015. If you’ll remember, this is the deadline where the Royals acquired Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, who were both rentals and left in free agency at the end of that season. In both of these moves the Royals gave up blue-chip prospects in Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea. While they were successful in their goal of winning a World Championship, it’s fair to ask if it was worth it for the Royals. Just four short years later, the Royals now find themselves in one of the worst situations in baseball. They are coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons with little room for optimism as they have the fifth-worst farm system in baseball, per Fangraphs. But winning the World Series reinvigorated the Kansas City fanbase and they’re all about this team that won a title just four years ago, right? Well, not exactly. After winning the World Series in 2015, the Royals’ attendance numbers have dropped each season, culminating in the fifth-lowest attendance in baseball in 2019, averaging just 18,500 fans/game. Heading into the 2020 season, the Minnesota Twins are at a crossroads. Do they go all in now like the Royals and throw big money at aging stars like Josh Donaldson and Hyun-Jin Ryu who may hamper their cap situation down the line? Do they trade away their top prospects in order to get an ace pitcher? Doing this might get them to the ALCS or World Series in the next year or two, but could put their long-term future in jeopardy. Or do they make some savvy mid-tier free agency moves and trade for a low-cost high-upside player who won’t require the prospect capital of an ace pitcher? Doing so might put a title more in doubt but will extend this window that is just opening for the Twins and provide five to ten more years of excitement like was provided by the Bomba Squad in 2019. What do you think the Twins should do? Do you care if the Twins are irrelevant in five years as long as they win a title in the next two years? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Statistics in baseball are a funny thing. Often stats are cherry-picked to best support the narrative we want to push, leaving out any that contradict that narrative. I’ll show you what I mean with the current crop of potential Twins' free agent targets by pushing a “Sure Bet” and “Washed Up” narrative for each of them …Since we have talked so much about Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Josh Donaldson this offseason, I will use my personal “next three” offseason targets for the Minnesota Twins in this exercise. Dallas Keuchel Sure Bet: Dallas Keuchel is a multi-time All-Star, World Series champion and just four years removed from winning the Cy Young Award for the Astros. Over the past six seasons, Keuchel has only had an ERA over 3.75 once, and simply does not allow home runs, with a career HR/9 of just 0.91. Keuchel finished 2019 incredibly strong, posting a 2.55 ERA in 53 innings from Aug. 14 through the end of the season. Washed Up: While Keuchel has a Cy Young to his name, that was four years ago and he simply isn’t the pitcher he used to be. Over the past two seasons, Dallas has posted a 4.06 FIP and a very pedestrian 6.9% K%. Keuchel will be 32-years-old heading into the 2020 season, and operating with a fastball that averaged a velocity of just 88.4 MPH in 2019. Julio Teherán Sure Bet: Julio Teherán is just 28-years-old and has seen his ERA decrease in each of the past three seasons, highlighted by his 3.81 ERA in 2019. Teherán is coming off of a 2019 season in which he posted a career best K/9. With spin rates on his fastball and curveball in the 70th and 84th percentile respectively, Teherán certainly has the pitching arsenal to be successful. Additionally, Teherán is an incredibly healthy and durable pitcher, as evidenced by >170 IP in each of his past seven seasons. Washed Up: While Teherán had a solid 3.81 ERA in 2019, the numbers point to this coming more from luck than skill as shown by his 5.26 xFIP. Teherán has been walking more batters than ever before, posting a 4.30 and 4.28 BB/9 in each of the past two seasons. Teherán has posted an xFIP of greater than 4.00 in each of the past five seasons, and with a fastball that has declined in velocity each of the past three seasons, things might be getting worse rather than better for the Colombian right-hander. Eric Thames Sure Bet: From 2017-19, Eric Thames trails only Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt in OPS by first basemen (min. 750 PAs). Thames’ power is legit, too. In 2019, of first baseman with at least 300 plate appearances, Thames was fourth in SLG and second in ISO. Thames is not butcher at first base either, posting a positive DRS for Milwaukee last season. Washed Up: While Thames put up solid power numbers in 2019, it largely came at the expense of his plate discipline. In 2019, Thames was third of all first baseman with a K% of 29.3. Thames also has not shown that he can be a consistent option at first base, playing in less than 100 games in three of his five seasons in the MLB. Thames isn’t getting younger either — while he has only been in the majors for five seasons, the first baseman is already 33-years-old. Additionally, moving away from the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park would seemingly call for a statistical decline and disappointing 2020 for Thames. Baseball is a numbers-driven sport and statistics are extremely vital in evaluating the past and predicting the future performance for a player. As you can see from the examples above though, narratives can change completely based on what statistics are being used (and withheld) for a given player. What are your thoughts on the various narratives being pushed for this crop of free agents? How do you navigate reading the narratives that people write or tweet and formulate your own opinion when there are so many statistics out there? Leave a comment below and get the conversation started. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Great analysis. I'd agree with you and lean MadBum. He's no slam dunk, but FA pitchers hardly ever are.

Great stuff as always, Parker. The article image cracked me up, by the way. Licking a glove full of dirt is...different...

I'm firmly in the "Plan 1" camp. I am of the mind that MadBum is a top of the rotation starter for at least the next 2-3 years, and that's worth an AAV of ~$20-21MM for me. After writing this article, and doing some additional research, I would swap Travis Shaw for Eric Thames though. So I would do MadBum, Homer Bailey, Thames, and Sergio Romo to finish out the $35MM in payroll. I think that's a really, really solid (and upgraded) team heading into 2020.

As we head into the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings, the Minnesota Twins are at $99MM in payroll with spots left to fill. With plenty of options still on the board, I will outline three viable plans to fill out the 2020 roster, and you get to play general manager and choose which one they should go with.For this exercise I will be operating under the assumption that the Twins will enter 2020 with a $135MM payroll. This would be a $15MM raise from their 2019 payroll, which is a very conservative increase given their drastic leap in revenue after a team- best 101-win season. Additionally, each plan will feature the addition of two starting pitchers, one corner infielder and one bullpen arm, ensuring that each of the Twins’ needs are taken care of. It should be noted that trades are certainly a possibility for filling out the roster for the Twins, but with so much uncertainty with projecting trades, this article will assume that all Twins’ moves will come via free agency. Let’s get started: *Dollar amount represents AAV as projected by MLB Trade Rumors and the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook* Plan 1: The Elite Starter Plan Madison Bumgarner/Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP) - $21MMHomer Bailey (SP) - $5MMTravis Shaw (3B) - $6MMSergio Romo (RP) - $3MM2020 Steamer fWAR Projection: 4.8 In Bumgarner the Twins would get a true top of the rotation starter to go along with Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. With some other savvy moves, though, the Twins can round out their offseason with good players. In this plan the Twins would sign Homer Bailey to be their No. 5 starter. After getting traded from KC to OAK last summer, Bailey put up a respectable 3.65 FIP in 73 innings. Additionally the Twins would sign Travis Shaw as their third baseman, moving Sanó to 1B. Shaw had a down year in 2019, but posted a >.800 OPS and 3.5 fWAR in each of 2017 and 2018. Finally, this plan rounds out with the Twins bringing back fan-favorite Sergio Romo. Plan 2: The Elite Offensive Plan Josh Donaldson (3B) - $22MMRich Hill (SP) - $6MMDrew Smyly (SP) - $3MMBrandon Kintzler (RP) - $4MM2020 Steamer fWAR Projection: 7.2 Similar to Plan 1 with MadBum, choosing to pursue Josh Donaldson means going cheap with the rest of their FA acquisitions. Should the Twins do so though, they could still sign two quality starting pitchers while remaining at the $135MM payroll that has been budgeted. In this plan, those two starters would be Rich Hill and Drew Smyly. Hill hasn’t eclipsed 150 innings in a season since 2007, but when he is healthy he has been a consistently good pitcher, posting a sub-4.00 ERA in every year since 2013. Smyly has always had good stuff, as evidenced by his career 23.5% K%. Poor health, lack of consistency and poor control have held him back, though. If Wes Johnson can work to get Smyly’s pitches under control, he could be a solid number five starter for the Twins in 2020. Additionally with this plan, the Twins would bring Brandon Kintzler back to Minnesota coming off of his best season in the majors with a 2.68 ERA with the Cubs. Plan 3: The Spread it Around Plan Dallas Keuchel (SP) - $13MMJulio Teherán (SP) - $9MMEric Thames (1B) - $6MMDellin Betances (RP) - $7MM2020 Steamer fWAR Projection: 4.2 In the final free agency plan, the Twins would operate under the plan of spreading out their remaining $35MM in payroll and filling all of their positional hole with good, albeit not great, players. The headline under this plan would be signing Dallas Keuchel to be their No. 3 starter behind Berrios and Odorizzi. Keuchel is not the pitcher he was when he won the Cy Young, but is coming off of a season in Atlanta where he posted a solid 3.75 ERA and has pitched in no shortage of big games. Additionally the Twins would sign 28 year old, Julio Teherán and his 119 ERA + (100 is average, higher is better). The Twins would sign Eric Thames and his .851 OPS in 2019 to be their Cron replacement, and Dellin Betances and his career 40.1% career K% as the final arm in their 2020 bullpen. According to 2020 Steamer fWAR projections, Plan 2 featuring Josh Donaldson would bring the Twins the most value in 2020, but which of these three plans excites you the most? Use the comments below to share! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

These are excellent playoff what-ifs! You are right in that I was trying to keep mine more big picture but these are really good ones. Another big playoff what if..what if Schoop started at 2B in game one instead of Luis Arraez?

It seems year after year there are always those two or three moments that, had they played out differently, could have changed the entire season for a franchise. I can’t tell you how many times I have replayed key moments in Twins history in my head, trying to imagine what could have been if a certain event had played out differently.What if Francisco Liriano never blew out his elbow in 2006? What if Phil Cuzzi (correctly) called Mauer’s line drive fair in the 2009 ALDS? What if Morneau never suffered his concussion in 2010? In today’s article I will be taking a look back at what I consider to be the three biggest “What-ifs” of the 2019 Twins season. 1. What if Byron Buxton didn’t run into the wall in Miami on Aug. 1? When Byron Buxton injured himself attempting to make a play on a deep fly ball in Miami, he was in the middle of a career season. Buxton had an OPS of .827, 100 points higher than he had ever hit in any season prior to this one. Buxton was leading the team in doubles as well as stolen bases, and providing production from the nine spot that any other team in the majors would have killed to have. Losing Buxton’s bat from the lineup was a big blow. While Jake Cave stepped up big time with his bat during Buxton’s absence in the regular season, most Twins fans will remember Cave’s strikeout looking with two outs and the bases loaded to kill the second inning rally in game three of the ALDS. While there’s no way to know how Buxton would have fared in the same spot, Byron had cut his K% to a career low 23% and posted a .912 OPS in high leverage spots in 2019 and I can’t help but think that he might have put up a better fight than Cave in that spot. Where Byron’s presence was most felt, though, was in the field. Prior to his shoulder injury, Buxton was having his best defensive season to date, posting 10 DRS in 86 games and a career best 15.7 UZR/150. The ripple effect of his defensive loss extended past center field, though, as Buxton’s injury worsened our right field defense as well. The injury forced Max Kepler into being our everyday center fielder, and while he performed admirably in this role, he was taken out of the right field role where he was performing like a Gold Glove-type fielder. 2. What if Michael Pineda Hadn't Gotten Suspended? On Sept. 7, just one month before the start of the postseason, the Twins got news that Michael Pineda had been suspended for the remainder of the baseball season for taking a banned diuretic. At the time of the suspension, Pineda was 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA with an extraordinary 3.04 ERA in nine starts after the All-Star break. I can’t help but think how the Twins’ season would have played out had Pineda not been suspended. Pineda had quickly become the Twins most consistent and reliable pitcher in their rotation and losing him was a huge disappointment, especially down the stretch when Kyle Gibson and Marin Perez were as ineffective as they were. Pineda’s absence was felt most, though, in the postseason. Prior to being suspended there was talk of Pineda possibly being the game one starting pitcher for the ALDS. His absence caused Baldelli to go to Randy Dobnak for game three, and we all know how that turned out. 3. What if the Twins had been able to match New York’s offer for Marcus Stroman? According to a report by Dan Hayes of the Athletic, the Twins had indicated Marcus Stroman as their number one target heading into the trade deadline, and had a good chance at acquiring the Duke grad. After initially turning down the Blue Jays on a deal involving Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis, though, the Blue Jays sought out other deals and eventually made a trade with the Mets without giving the Twins the chance to match New York’s offer. Had the Twins been given the chance to trump New York’s offer and acquire Stroman at the deadline, Minnesota would have added a lethal arm to their rotation who would have been a valuable asset not only for the stretch run of the 2019 season, but would have also been a key member of the rotation heading in 2020, which currently stands with Berrios and Odorizzi as its only members. What are some of your biggest “What-ifs” from the 2019 season? Let’s hear them in the comments below! Click here to view the article

I don't mind this plan at all. I wrote about this a couple weeks ago. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/a-three-step-plan-to-drastically-improve-the-twins-infield-defense-in-2020-r8616

For many, Dec. 2 represents scouring the internet on Cyber Monday, trying to find the best deal on an air fryer or a new coffee maker. For MLB teams, that date holds much more weight, as it is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Nine Twins are eligible, eight decisions are presumed locks. Then there’s C.J. Cron …Cron’s 2019 season was defined by health, and lack thereof, as his performance was directly correlated with the status of his right thumb. Prior to his July thumb injury, Cron had a nifty .821 OPS in 331 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 112 and a solid 19.3 K%. After the injury, though, Cron struggled mightily to the tune of a .700 OPS in 168 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 80 and a 25.6 K%. The chart below really illustrates well just how much his play was impacted by his injured thumb. Download attachment: Cron1.jpg The case for bringing back Cron is betting that he can come back healthy and replicate his early season success from 2019. When healthy, Cron is an above average power hitter with solid defense and a knack for scooping up low thrown balls. With a projected arbitration salary of $7.7M and no commitment beyond the 2020 season, Cron brings the Twins a tremendous amount of salary flexibility by keeping the future books clean in order to make other multi-year contracts more palatable (*cough* Zack Wheeler). Cron was seemingly well-liked in the clubhouse and should the Twins brass have confidence in Cron’s thumb heading into next season, bringing him back in his final year of arbitration makes a lot of sense. Should the Twins have confidence in Cron’s thumb, though? Earlier this month, Cron underwent a surgical debridement to clean out his right thumb. Interestingly enough, this isn’t the first time that Cron has undergone this procedure. In October of 2016, after coming off of his most successful season in the big leagues to date, Cron underwent the same surgical debridement, except on his left thumb. Looking at how Cron rebounded from his 2016 thumb debridement might give us an idea of how he might rebound from the thumb debridement he just received. Unfortunately for Cron, the results were not great as he declined in every area in the season following his 2016 thumb debridement procedure. While it’s impossible to know how much of that decline was directly related to the thumb versus general regression after a great season, the stark decline should make the Twins nervous to bring back the first baseman. Below, you can see just how much Cron regressed from 2016 to 2017. Could a similar dip in production be on the horizon for Cron next season? Download attachment: Cron2.jpg Handing out nearly $8M to a first baseman with a history of hand injuries and coming off of a procedure from which he has already shown difficulty coming back seems like a risky proposition for the Twins. Especially when there are enticing alternatives out there. I would prefer they not tender him a contract, make him a free agent and make other plans at first base in 2020. The Twins could look at the free agent market and acquire a first baseman on an affordable contract, like Eric Thames or Mitch Moreland. Additionally, we could look to move Miguel Sano across the diamond and pick up a free agent third baseman, like Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas. Finally, the Twins could look to their farm system and replace Cron with a promising prospect like Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker. Do you think the Twins should bring back C.J. Cron in his final year of arbitration? If not, how would you like to see the Twins replace him in 2020? We’d love to hear your thoughts, leave a comment below! Click here to view the article