Matthew Taylor

It’s no secret that Emilio Pagán has been bad for the Minnesota Twins. The good news is that the Twins have four more than capable in-house options to replace him, should the Twins decide to move on from the man they acquired in exchange for Taylor Rogers this offseason. Emilio Pagán has not only been bad this season for the Minnesota Twins, but has been one of the worst relievers in baseball going on three seasons now. Our friend Aaron Gleeman said it best: Continuing to trot out Pagán every few days is actively harming the Minnesota Twins. He continues to harm the team and his upside is certainly not high enough to warrant the catastrophic performances we see from him on a weekly basis. Additionally, the Minnesota Twins have plenty of players just 15 minutes away from Target Field who could fill in for Pagán. There’s a great chance that these players would perform better than Pagán, and would give each of them valuable experience with an eye toward sticking in the bullpen for years to come. These four players are better options for the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen than Emilio Pagán: Jovani Moran Jovani Moran should be a familiar name for Minnesota Twins fans as he has been up with the Twins many times this season. In his time with the Twins, Moran has been more than solid, owning a 1.93 ERA in 23 1/3 innings in 2022. Moran is a left-handed pitcher who possesses a nasty changeup that can neutralize right-handers. Moran is certainly a pitcher who has a future in this Twins bullpen and the fact that Emilio Pagán is getting more play than him isn’t right. Ronny Henriquez Ronny Henriquez was acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Mitch Garver/Isaiah Kiner-Falefa swap early in the 2022 offseason. Henriquez has not been amazing for the Twins in 2022, owning a 5.90 ERA for the AAA affiliate, but he has been better as of late. In 26 innings since June 21, the right-hander owns a 3.12 ERA with a 29/8 K/BB ratio. What makes Henriquez an intriguing option for the Minnesota Twins bullpen is that he has yet to be tested in a true 1-2 inning bullpen role. Henriquez can get to the upper 90s with his fastball and his pitch repertoire might just be one that thrives in a bullpen role rather than the 4-5 inning stretches that he has been pitching with the Saints this season. Henriquez is currently on the 40-man roster with the Minnesota Twins. Evan Sisk The Minnesota Twins acquired Evan Sisk in its trade with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2021 for J.A. Happ. Sisk performed extremely well this season in Wichita and was moved up to the St. Paul Saints where he has continued his great pitching out of the bullpen. In 14 innings with the St. Paul Saints in 2022, Sisk owns a 2.57 ERA with a K/9 of 9.6. Sisk is not currently on the 40-man roster for the Twins so would need to be added if he were to be called up to the big-league club. Drew Strotman Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade last summer, Drew Strotman struggled mightily as a starting pitcher with the Minnesota Twins in 2021. Coming into 2022, the Twins opted to convert Strotman into a reliever and he continued to struggle in the early months of this season. Over the past month and a half, though, Strotman appears to have turned a corner and become somewhat of a weapon for the St. Paul Saints. Over his last 10 appearances, Strotman has a 1.32 ERA and opponents are hitting just .180 off of him. On the season, Strotman has demonstrated the ability to miss bats, boasting a K/9 in the double digits. Control can be an issue for Strotman, but when he’s able to locate his pitches, he can be really solid. Strotman is already on the 40-man roster, so no roster finagling would need to be done with a Strotman call-up. Do you agree that these options would be better for the Twins’ bullpen than Emilio Pagán? How would you rank your confidence in these names? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

During a baseball season, it’s easy to get so wrapped up in each individual game that one can miss larger trends in player performance. Let’s take a step back and look at who on the Minnesota Twins has been hot, and who has not. In looking at our hot or not list we will be looking at player performance since July 1. This is a long enough timespan to give a decent sample size of plate appearances and show an actual trend of performance. We’ll look at two Twins hitters who have been “hot” and two who have “not”. HOT: José Miranda .329/.400/.529 (95 plate appearances) 168 wRC+ 5 HR, 25 RBI Jose Miranda has been an absolute stud for the Minnesota Twins since his slow start immediately following his call up. Since the calendar turned to July, Miranda has easily been the best hitter on the Twins and has shown up in the clutch, too, delivering walk off hits on two separate occasions. One area in which Miranda has especially excelled is in limiting strikeouts. Since July 1, Miranda has had a K% of just 15.8, good for second best on the Twins during that span. Nick Gordon .333/.387/.561 (75 plate appearances) 165 wRC+ 2 HR, 9 RBI If you thought Jose Miranda’s hot streak was surprising, then you’re going to need to sit down for this one, because Nick Gordon has been on an absolute scorcher for the Minnesota Twins since July 1, with a team-best OPS of .947 in that span. The slim Gordon may look like a scrappy singles-hitting ballplayer, but he has been demolishing the ball with a high exit velocity and has delivered 11 extra base hits since July 1. NOT: Gary Sanchéz .155/.246/.224 (65 plate appearances) 38 wRC+ 1 HR, 6 RBI After posting a strong month of May, Sanchez had a terrible month of June and has been even worse since the calendar turned to July. To make matters worse, Ryan Jeffers has since hit the injured list, forcing Sanchez to become an everyday player for the Twins. Sanchez has been striking out at a 30% clip and has shown absolutely no power, owning a slugging percentage even lower than his on-base percentage. Carlos Correa .194/.292/.347 (113 plate appearances) 82 wRC+ 4 HR, 13 RBI Going under the radar has been just how pedestrian Carlos Correa has been at the plate over the past five weeks. Since the calendar turned to July, Correa owns the second-lowest OPS on the Minnesota Twins at .639 along with the second-lowest average exit velocity of 87.9 MPH. With a player option following the season, could Correa possibly opt in to return to the Land of 10,000 lakes in 2023? What are your thoughts on the hot/not list above? Do you think the players listed will stick in the same category over the last two months of the season? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Much has been made about the Minnesota Twins trading for Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle or Kyle Gibson, but there is one pitcher who is better than all of them and might be attainable. It would just take a godfather offer. The Minnesota Twins’ need for a starting pitcher is undeniable. The duo of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan have been rock solid for the Twins in 2022, but Minnesota needs another top-line starter to help them secure a division title and throw out in a playoff game. Frankie Montas has been talked about extensively as the top trade target, but there is another starting pitcher on a losing team who would be an even better target, right handed pitcher, Zac Gallen. Zac Gallen is a 26-year-old ace starting pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks who is in his fourth season in the Majors. In his Major League career, Gallen boasts a 3.35 ERA with a 10.1 K/9 and an excellent K/BB ratio of 3.01. In his best season, 2020, Gallen posted a 2.75 ERA and finished ninth in the National League Cy Young voting. As a young starting pitcher, Zac Gallen also brings with him years of control. The Arizona right-hander is currently in the last year of his rookie contract, of $745,600 heading into his first year of arbitration. This means that a team who would acquire him at the trade deadline would get him for the remainder of the 2022 season, along with three additional years of team control at an affordable arbitration cost. So, why might the Arizona Diamondbacks be looking to trade their young, talented, and controllable starting pitcher? Currently, Arizona finds themselves in fourth place, eight games below .500, in the best division in the national league. The Diamondbacks have not made the playoffs since 2017 and do not look poised to do so this year. While Gallen looks to be an ace starting pitcher, it’s fair to wonder just when Arizona might be ready to compete, and if their best course of action would be to cash in on their right-hander now, while his value is at its all-time peak. According to a Jon Heyman article in the New York Post earlier this month, the Arizona Diamondbacks plan to keep Zac Gallen, “unless they get an offer they can’t refuse.” This time of the year it’s always hard to tell how much to believe in these reports versus how much is posturing by teams and/or agents. But taking the post from the New York Post at face value, what would it take for the Twins to offer the Diamondbacks an offer that they couldn’t refuse? In my mind, a great offer like that would involve a Major League player right now, along with future assets. Something along the lines of Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Josh Winder and Jordan Balazovic could start the conversation and get the Diamondbacks interested in a potential deal with the Twins. Another piece of the Zac Gallen conversation that might make Twins fans nervous, but might also lessen the cost of Zac Gallen in a trade is his potential injury concerns. Earlier this season, Gallen was placed on the injured list with a UCL strain. Of course, this might bring back some bad memories from Chris Paddack and his UCL issues prior to the Twins trading for him and ultimately losing him to Tommy John surgery. At the same time, though, the injury concerns for both the Diamondbacks as well as other suitors might just lower the cost to the point that his cost of acquisition would be lower than what you would expect from an ace with three and a half years of team control. The Twins should absolutely explore trades for the Frankie Montases and Tyler Mahles of the world, but if Zac Gallen is on the market, the Twins should put together their best offer to bring him to the Twin Cities. Would you be excited about Zac Gallen coming to the Minnesota Twins? Do his elbow issues concern you? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Luis Arraez is an all-star. That much is undeniable. But with his electric bat on a first-place team, Luis Arraez should be an all-star starter. Luis Arraez has been absolutely dominant at the plate all season for the Minnesota Twins. Over 54 games in the 2022 season, Arraez is leading the American League in batting average by nine points with an average of .354. An impressive number in any season, but especially in 2022 when the league average is .240. Further, Arraez is leading all of baseball in on-base percentage with a video game-like number of .436. While he has historically been a second baseman, or even third base/left field, this season Arraez’s primary position has been at first base. Of his 43 non-DH games this season, 29 of them have come at first base, and his only eligibility in all-star voting is at first base. With that in mind, let’s look at his main competition for an all-star start. Player Batting Avg OPS wRC+ fWAR Team Winning % Ty France .322 .893 165 2.3 .444 Jose Abreu .260 .799 134 1.5 .492 Luis Arraez .354 .863 156 1.4 .569 Vlad Guerrero Jr. .259 .837 133 1.1 .597 Trey Mancini .290 .797 131 1.2 .422 As you can see in the chart above, Ty France certainly looks to be the main statistical competitor to Luis Arraez to be an all-star starter. France has a higher OPS, wRC+ and has been worth more fWAR than Arraez in 2022. What Arraez has over France, though, is the allure that comes with being a batting champion. While batting average doesn’t have the same meaning as it used to, the batting average champion still has importance in this league, and the fact that Arraez is hitting .354 in a season where offense has been down, gives him an advantage. Additionally, Arraez has an advantage over France in that he is putting up his statistics for a first place team. While the all-star game is an event that recognizes individual play, when the decision is a close one, the nod should go to the player who is in a tightly-contested division race. Not to mention, France has slowed down quite a bit after his hot start. Since the calendar turned to June, France has hit just .231 with a .764 OPS, while Arraez has hit .364 with a .917 OPS. Numbers in April count the same as numbers in June, but the arrow is pointing up for Arraez while it’s pointing down on France, which should count for something. Finally, Arraez deserves a ton of credit for picking up a Minnesota Twins team that has been absolutely decimated by injuries all season. When Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, and Larnach have missed games, Arraez has put the Twins team on his back and put up a 2-for-4 performance at the plate every single day. Arraez doesn’t get into slumps and puts the Twins in a position to put together rallies from the top of the lineup without skipping a beat. The other main competitor to Luis Arraez to be named an all-star starter will be Vladmir Guerrero, Jr. While Vladdy has been having yet another stellar year for the Blue Jays, his numbers just aren’t up to the level of Minnesota’s left-hander. Arraez leads Guerrero in batting average, OPS, wRC+, and fWAR. Certainly, Vlad has the name recognition over Arraez, but Arraez has been a better player than Vlad since day one and hopefully, the voters recognize the numbers rather than voting for Vlad on name alone. Luis Arraez has been a menace at the plate all season and he will surely be rewarded with his first all-star appearance. That’s not enough though, Luis Arraez should be an all-star starter. View full article

Alex Kirilloff has been demolishing the baseball over the last month with the St. Paul Saints, yet the Minnesota Twins still have not called him up. What are they waiting for? Cole Sands, Yennier Cano, Jermaine Palacios, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Ian Hamilton, Mark Contreras, Tyler Thornburg and Elliot Soto, these are just a handful of names that have been called up to the Minnesota Twins since May 12. Over that same time frame, Alex Kirilloff has hit .382 with the St. Paul Saints with an OPS of 1.182, including nine home runs and 15 extra base hits. Yet, Alex Kirilloff has yet to be promoted to the Big League club since his April demotion. There are a few reasons that people will give when explaining why Alex Kirilloff has not yet been promoted back to the Twins. The first reason is that the Twins need pitching. Regarding the starting rotation, absolutely, the Minnesota Twins currently have five starting pitchers on the injured list and names like Chi Chi Gonzalez and Cole Sands are absolutely understandable call ups for the Twins. Getting into the bullpen, though, is when it’s harder to justify Kirilloff not getting a call-up. The Twins currently have ten pitchers in their bullpen, five of the ten pitchers have only thrown once over the past five days. The Twins really value having depth and flexibility in their bullpen, but when arms are getting used so sparingly (and they aren’t exactly golden arms), it doesn’t seem to be completely necessary to carry so many arms. Especially when one of those arms is Tyler Duffey, whose spot on the team is certainly not a warranted one. Since his three-run implosion against the Royals on May 26, a Duffey-for-Kirilloff swap on the roster has seemed so obvious, but the Twins continue to trot out an arm every day that is actively hurting the team, while hiding a dominant bat in Lowertown. Another reason people give for the Twins not calling up Kirilloff is that there aren’t enough at-bats for him with the Twins. With Trevor Larnach mashing in left field and Luis Arraez showing fielding chops at first, Kirilloff might not have a spot in the lineup anyways. In reality, though, there would be plenty of at-bats for Kirilloff in the Majors. Utilizing the DH spot, Baldelli can have Larnach, Kirilloff and Arraez all play at the same time and cycle them through different positions. This will allow the Twins to avoid situations where they play both of their catchers in a lineup against a right-handed hitter, as was the case on Saturday. The addition of Elliot Soto on Monday was the most curious decision yet, though. The Twins are coming off of a game where they were shut out and when adding an offensive player they opt for a AAA journeyman with a .658 OPS, especially when they are already rostering Nick Gordon who has the same defensive flexibility as Soto. Alex Kirilloff has demonstrated that his wrist is healthy. He’s demonstrating that he has the ability to not only make contact but to drive the ball. Alex Kirilloff needs to be up with the Minnesota Twins, and the Twins need to stop waiting and make the call yesterday. What do you think? Should the Twins call up Kirilloff now or are there legitimate reasons not to? Leave a COMMENT below. View full article

After a surprising win from a depleted roster on Friday night, the Twins team that we expected to see in Canada reared its face as the Twins got crushed by the Blue Jays. Box Score SP: Dylan Bundy: 2 ⅓ IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (67 pitches, 42 strikes (63%)) Home Runs: Polanco (6) Bottom 3 WPA: Dylan Bundy -.463, Byron Buxton -.061, Mark Contreras -.049 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Game Notes The Minnesota Twins’ bats picked up where they left off on Friday night as they got off to a quick start on Saturday afternoon. Luis Arraez kicked off the game with a leadoff single to set up Jorge Polanco for a 2-run home run, his sixth of the 2022 season. Coming into today’s game, José Berríos owned a 5.62 ERA in 2022. The quick damage from the Twins in the first inning made it seem like the old friend’s nightmare start to the 2022 season would continue. Following the first inning, though, Berríos settled down in a big way and quieted the Twins’ bats in a big way. After getting two hits and two runs in the first inning, the Twins were only able to muster one more hit over Berríos’ seven-inning start right-hander turned in one of his best starts of the season, potentially turning around his disastrous start. On the Twins’ side of the mound, Dylan Bundy’s start went about as poorly as possible. Bundy couldn’t even make it through the third inning as the Blue Jays pounded him at every opportunity. In just 2 ⅓ short innings, Bundy allowed eight hits and five earned runs, including home runs to Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk. After a stellar night for the Twins’ bullpen on Friday, the reliever group was terrible for the Twins on Saturday afternoon. As a group, the bullpen allowed six earned runs over 5 ⅔ innings, striking out only three batters. Each of Ian Hamilton, Yennier Cano and Juan Minaya were tagged for multiple hits and at least one earned run. Overall it was a day to forget for the Minnesota Twins. Every pitcher who appeared in the game for the Twins looked bad, and after a promising first inning, the bats were completely silent all game (aside from a meaningless run in the 9th), making a poorly performing José Berríos look like prime Johan Santana. In the end the Twins ended up on the losing side, 12-3, dropping their record to 31-24. What’s Next? The beautiful part of baseball is that the Twins get a chance at redemption tomorrow. The Minnesota Twins will wrap up their three game series against the Blue Jays in a rubber match on Sunday afternoon. The Twins will trot Devin Smeltzer out to the mound to face off against AL Cy Young candidate, Kevin Gausman. Game time is 12:37pm central time. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

There is a lot of concern in Minnesota Twins Territory after the Twins four of five games against the Detroit Tigers this week. Don’t sound the alarms, though, there are plenty of reasons not to worry. 1. Reinforcements are on the way A big reason why the Minnesota Twins have struggled over the last couple weeks have been because of the sheer number of players that they have been missing in these games. Just to list the name of players that have hit the injured list over the past two weeks illustrates how dire it has been: Carlos Correa (COVID-19), Joe Ryan (COVID-19), Gilberto Celestino (COVID-19), Josh Winder (Shoulder), Sonny Gray (Pectoral), Royce Lewis (Knee), Danny Coulombe (Hip). The good news for the Twins, though, is that many of these players figure to be back shortly. It’s been just about one week since Ryan, Celestino and Correa hit the COVID-19 list and they figure to be back in the fold in just a few short days. Additionally, Jorge Alcala has already begun his rehab assignment as he reaches the end of his time on the 60-day injured list, and all reports point to his arm looking strong. The return timelines of Josh Winder, Sonny Gray and Royce Lewis are less clear, but all three of these vital players appear to have avoided major injuries and figure to be healthy in turn for the late summer home stretch of the season. Finally, the Twins are close to getting Alex Kirilloff added back onto the squad as well. Kirilloff struggled mightily during his time with the Twins, but since getting sent back down to AAA, Kirilloff has found his groove to the tune of a .863 OPS. Getting Kirilloff back to his expected form would be a big time addition. 2. White Sox Look Terrible For as bad as the Minnesota Twins have looked lately, the Chicago White Sox have looked even worse. The team that everyone expected to run away with the American League Central has not at all looked the part all season. After falling prey to a sweep from the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon, the White Sox now find themselves at 23-26 with a negative-55 run differential, the second-worst run differential in the American League. While true that the schedule is about to get tough for the Twins, the White Sox face an equally tough slate with their next six games coming against the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s hard to envision the Guardians, Tigers, or Royals making any sort of run at the American League Central, and with the White Sox looking as bad as they have looked, there’s still plenty of reason to feel optimistic about the Twins’ chances of making the playoffs. 3. Third Wild Card Spot If the White Sox do figure things out and start playing much better than they have over the first third of the season, the Twins still have a great shot at making the playoffs via the Wildcard. As a part of the new CBA agreement, there are now three Wildcard teams that make the American League playoffs. In an American League where nine teams currently have a record under .500, it shouldn’t take any more than 85 wins to make the playoffs. To put that in perspective, the Twins would just need to play .500 baseball over the balance of the season to lock down a playoff spot. Additionally, all Wildcard teams are now guaranteed an extended playoff series, rather than a one-game playoff. There is certainly reason to be frustrated with how the Minnesota Twins have been playing lately. However, with the reinforcements on the way, along with the way the White Sox have been playing and the fact that three Wild Card teams from the American League will make the playoffs, the Minnesota Twins still find themselves in a good spot to reach the postseason, where anything can happen (even if you’re the Minnesota Twins). Are you worried about the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Thanks, Rosterman. This is EXCELLENT and extremely extensive.

While we spend most of our time focusing on the players on the current Minnesota Twins squad, it’s fun to check in on our “old friends” every once in a while. The moniker, “old friend”, has been common amongst Minnesota Twins fans when talking about players who used to play for the hometown squad but have since moved on to play for a different team. Whether or not you continue to root for old friends after they leave the Twins, it’s always a fun exercise to see how they are doing. Here are top performing “old friends” thus far in 2022: 5. Josh Donaldson .764 OPS 5 HR 15 RBI 0.9 fWAR While mired in controversy over the past couple of weeks, it’s still hard to deny that Josh Donaldson is having a strong year in pinstripes after being traded to the Yankees this past offseason. Aided by an average exit velocity that ranks in the 89th percentile, the Bringer of Rain owns a 123 OPS+ while continuing to provide above-average defense at the hot corner. For many, Donaldson isn’t much of an “old friend”, but he cracks the top-five for top performing ex-Twins in 2022. 4. Kyle Gibson 48 IP 3.94 ERA 1.1 fWAR Coming in fourth for top performing ex-Minnesota Twins in 2022 is someone who flashed ace potential at times with the Minnesota Twins but never quite put it all together, Kyle Gibson. After earning his first all-star appearance last season, Gibson is having himself another solid year on the mound with the Phillies in 2022. With a FIP of 3.22, Gibson has actually been even better than his surface stats suggest. 3. Taylor Rogers 21 1/3 IP 1.69 ERA 17 Saves 0.6 fWAR It was a controversial trade this offseason when the Twins traded away Taylor Rogers in exchange for Chris Paddack, and has become even more controversial after the start that Rogers has had in 2022. Across 21 appearances this season, Rogers has allowed an earned run in just two of those appearances. Rogers leads all of baseball with 17 saves this season and has quickly become one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball. 2. C.J. Cron .942 OPS 13 HR 37 RBI 1.5 fWAR C.J. Cron only spent one season with the Minnesota Twins, but since he departed following the 2019 season, he has been excellent. In 2022, though, he is having the best season of his career with an OPS+ of 155. Cron is tied for third in all of baseball with 13 home runs and is tied for sixth with 37 RBI. 1. Martín Pérez 56 1/3 IP 1.60 ERA 1.7 fWAR Martín Pérez was not good as a member of the Twins, posting a 5.12 ERA in his sole season with the club in 2019. In 2022, though, he has pitched like the best starting pitcher in all of baseball. Pérez’s 1.60 ERA leads Major League Baseball, and his 1.7 fWAR ranks third among starting pitchers. He hasn’t been garnering many strikeouts, but he has yet to allow a home run this season and is allowing a career-low 2.2 walks per nine innings. Who do you think has been the best performing ex-Minnesota Twins player in 2022? Which of these players would you add to the current Minnesota Twins roster if you could? Leave a comment and start the conversation! View full article

While he is notoriously a slow starter, Miguel Sanó is off to his slowest start yet in 2022. While it’s tempting to write him off completely, might there be reason to cut Sanó some slack? Miguel Sanó has had an April to forget in 2022 for the Minnesota Twins. Through 15 games, Sanó has just five hits and an abysmal OPS of .380. Sanó has just one extra-base hit and has statistically been the least valuable player in baseball in this early season with an fWAR of -.07. Miguel Sanó having yet another poor start has left Minnesota Twins fans extremely frustrated with the first baseman and questioning whether it is time to cut bait. Sanó is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and with Alex Kirilloff nearing his way back from injury and Jose Miranda on the doorstep of the Majors, it might make sense to move on from him in favor of youth. I certainly have voiced my own frustrations with Miguel Sanó. Miguel Sanó’s advanced numbers, though, paint a different picture and portend that Sanó’s early struggles are largely fluky and that better days are ahead. Let’s dig deeper into the numbers. First, let’s look at his contact numbers. Through the first handful of weeks, Miguel Sanó ranks 11th in all of baseball with an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, right on par with his career average exit velocity of 93.1 MPH. Further, Sanó’s hard-hit percentage is at 50%, tied for 24th in baseball. Finally, his barrel numbers are at his typically high rate, with a barrel percentage of 15.6%, just a tick below his career average. So, if his contact numbers are at their typically high level, then it must be his poor plate discipline that explains his terrible numbers, right? Wrong. Sanó is actually showing better discipline at the plate in 2022 than he ever has in his career. Thus far in 2022, Sanó owns a career-low K% of 29.3 with a BB% of 13.8, the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, Sanó has a career-low chase rate and whiff rate of just 16.9% and 33.3%, respectively. Just look at Sanó’s statcast percentile numbers. Does this look like someone who should be hitting .083 and worthy of being cut? If Sanó’s contact rates are at his typically-elite levels, and his plate discipline numbers are at career-best levels, why is Miguel Sanó having such a terrible start to the season? Simply put, it’s been bad luck for the Dominican. A simple, yet admittedly not perfect, way to gauge luck in baseball is by looking at batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over a large enough sample size, the BABIP for most MLB players will settle at around .300. Heading into the 2022 season, Miguel Sanó had a career BABIP of .329. This season, though, Miguel Sanó is sitting at a BABIP of .097, the second-lowest mark in baseball behind Kansas City’s Carlos Santana. Another way to look at bad luck is to compare a player’s actual numbers to his expected numbers and look at the difference. The best numbers to look for this is weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). wOBA is a catch-all offensive statistic that best encapsulates offensive performance. xwOBA then looks at a player's process statistics such as exit velocity to determine what a player’s numbers should be, as we all know that luck is a big part of the game of baseball. Miguel Sanó currently has a wOBA of .192, compared to a xwOBA of .334. The -0.142 difference between those two numbers is the sixth-largest discrepancy in all of baseball, showing that Sanó has been one of the most snake-bitten players in 2022. On Tuesday night, Miguel Sanó teased what could be the start of some converted luck as he smoked a 108 MPH single over right fielder, Robbie Grossman's, head which (in the wildest way possible) wound up being a walk-off hit for the Twins. It has been extremely frustrating to watch Miguel Sanó bat in 2022, but all of the advanced numbers show that better days are ahead for the right-hander. It can be tempting to want to give up on Sanó and want to move onto other options, but the upside that Sanó brings is sky-high. Let’s cut Sanó some slack as a big summer is coming for the powerful first baseman. View full article

I just ranked the players on the 40-man roster.

As the 2022 season for the Minnesota Twins rapidly approaches, let’s rank every player on the Twins from 40 to 1. In these rankings we will only be looking at players on the 40-man roster, and we will only be looking at their value to the Twins for the 2022 season. This is different from the Twins asset rankings that Nick Nelson does each year where he ranks the Twins players in terms of the long-term value they bring to the club. In these rankings, young prospects might be ranked lower than aging veterans and past production will typically trump future projection. In the simplest of terms, these rankings will answer the question, “Who would you rather have for the 2022 season?” Tier 11: Likely Non-Contributors 40. Chris Vallimont Vallimont struggled mightily in double-A last season, but was added to the 40-man roster to be protected in the Rule 5 draft. Don’t expect to see Vallimont contribute to the Twins this season. 39. Ronny Henriquez 38. Blayne Enlow After undergoing Tommy John surgery last season, Enlow will look to get healthy in 2022 as he prepares to be a contributor for the club in 2023. 37. Drew Strotman Strotman has been converted into a reliever and will work as such with the St. Paul Saints this season. He struggled as a starter after joining the Saints last year, but in a bullpen role he will likely get a shot with the Twins at some point in 2022. 36. Cole Sands 35. Jordan Balazovic While he hopes to get a call up to the Majors at some point in 2022, Balazovic still has yet to pitch above the double-A level and will be starting the 2022 season on the injured list. Still a promising prospect, Balazovic will hope to string together some healthy months and work his way up to the Big Leagues. Tier 10: Bench Utility Guys…With Upside? 34. Gilberto Celestino 33. Royce Lewis Having not played in competitive baseball games since 2019, the 2022 season will be a big one for Royce Lewis. The former number one overall pick will look to prove that he still has what it takes to be a superstar in this league. Lewis will start the season in St. Paul and fight to work his way up to the Big Leagues where he can fill in all over the diamond. 32. Nick Gordon 31. Jose Miranda Miranda exploded onto the scene in 2021 in Wichita and St. Paul, posting one of the best minor league seasons in Minnesota Twins history. Miranda will look to ride that momentum into the 2022 season, where it shouldn’t be long until he gets a call up to the Majors. Tier 9: Who Keeps Their Job Longer? 30. Chris Archer The most recently acquired player on the Minnesota Twins’ roster, Archer has shown what his ceiling can look like. The problem is, he hasn’t reached that ceiling since leaving the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018. Now with injuries and declining velocity, we’ll see how long he can stay in the rotation. 29. Dylan Bundy Tier 8: Bullpen Cycle Guys 28. Cody Stashak After bursting on the scene in 2019 with an extremely impressive run as a rookie, Stashak has struggled mightily with injury. Last season, Stashak didn't pitch at all after May, and now again this season the right hander finds himself on the injured list with bicep trouble. When healthy, Stashak has impressive upside, but until he can prove himself to be healthy, he finds himself at the bottom of the "Bullpen Cycle Guys." 27. Griffin Jax 26. Jovani Moran After pitching the lights out in the Minors last season, Moran got called up to the Majors towards the end of the season where he struggled. Moran will begin the year in St. Paul, but is the type of high-upside left hander that could pop in his second stint up in the Big Leagues. 25. Josh Winder 24. Emilio Pagán The "other guy" acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade, Pagán has shown that he has the ability to be a lights-out reliever. In 2019, the right-hander tossed a 2.31 ERA in 70.0 IP with the Tampa Bay Rays with a 12.3 K/9. After a couple of down seasons in San Diego, he has the makeup to be a potentially dominant reliever for the Twins with a few tweaks. 23. Danny Coulombe 22. Jhon Romero The newly acquired Colombian product is still just 27-years-old and with little experience in the Major Leagues. Across double-A and triple-A last season, though, Romero posted a combined 2.95 ERA with a K/9 of 11.3. 21. Joe Smith 20. Jharel Cotton 19. Jhoan Duran Maybe this ranking is a little too optimistic for how young and unproven he is, but Jhoan Duran has a higher ceiling than almost any other arm in this bullpen. Since being moved to a full-time reliever role, Duran has upped his velocity to consistently hitting triple digits, to go along with a nasty ‘splinker’. Duran could easily be this team’s closer by season’s end. Tier 7: Which Catcher is Better? 18. Gary Sánchez Did you know that Gary Sánchez is the fastest catcher in MLB history to hit 100 home runs? Sánchez came up with the New York Yankees as a super prospect and immediately showed off his big time power en route to some incredible seasons. Over the last two seasons, though, the swing for Sánchez has looked ugly, and his poor defense lends to him being more of a DH than a catcher. If a change in scenery can spark the offense for him again, though, he could do some special things. 17. Ryan Jeffers Tier 5: X-Factor Bats 16. Trevor Larnach 15. Gio Urshela Urshela broke out in a big way in 2019, when he posted a .889 OPS over 132 games with the Yankees. After another strong season in 2020, Urshela regressed in 2021 to the tune of a .720 OPS. Urshela can play multiple spots in the infield, but whether or not his bat can rebound is what makes him an X-Factor for the Twins in 2022. Tier 4: Back of Bullpen Studs 14. Jorge Alcala After struggling to start the year in 2021, Alcala thrived down the stretch. Over the last 22 innings of last season, Alcala allowed just two earned runs while striking out 27. We could quickly see Alcala working his way to higher and higher leverage spots this season. 13. Caleb Thielbar 12. Tyler Duffey A prime bounceback candidate, Tyler Duffey will look to return to his 2020 form after a tough 2021 that saw his K/9 decline from 11.6 to 8.8, however he still managed to turn in an excellent 3.18 ERA. Tier 3: Young Gun Arms 11. Bailey Ober 10. Chris Paddack 9. Joe Ryan Ryan was acquired last season in a trade deadline deal for Nelson Cruz and quickly became a fan favorite. In his sophomore season, Ryan has already been named Opening Day starter and hopes are high for the right hander. Ryan is no doubt a Major League pitcher, but the question with him is upside. Does he have the upside to be a top of the rotation starter? Tier 2: The Next Best 8. Max Kepler After a breakout season in 2019, Kepler regressed in 2020 and was even worse in 2021. Last season, Kepler finished the year with a lowly OPS of .719. He still has the power and still has the glove to be a fringe all-star player, but he needs to prove that this season, otherwise he might wear out his welcome in Minnesota. 7. Alex Kirilloff Alex Kirilloff jumped out of the gates really strong in a Twins uniform, showing that his hype as a highly-touted prospect was deserved. The injury bug hit him hard though, as a wrist injury severely diminished his power and he limped through the season to a mediocre .722 OPS. Now, with a healthy wrist, Kirilloff figures to impact the Twins team more this season and provide middle-of-the-order numbers by the end of the season. 6. Miguel Sanó 5. Luis Arraez Tier 1: 2022 Team MVP Candidates 4. Sonny Gray While Sonny Gray profiles more as a number two than a number one, Gray has the upside to be an ace pitcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. If he can replicate his 2019 numbers and give the Minnesota Twins a true, no-doubt ace that they have been starved for, he certainly has the potential to be the MVP of the Twins in 2022. 3. Jorge Polanco 2. Byron Buxton An argument could definitely be made for Byron Buxton to fill the number one spot on these rankings. Pound for pound, game for game, Buxton arguably produces more value than any other player in baseball. Like always with Byron, though, health is the question. If Buxton can play 140+ games for the Twins this year, he will likely finish the season in the number one spot. 1. Carlos Correa In signing Carlos Correa, the Minnesota Twins are bringing in who is now the best player on the team. Correa does everything that you look for in a star player. He plays a premium position, offers gold-glove level defense and excellent offense. The best part, he’s only just entering his prime, as he is still just 27-years-old. Do you agree with the rankings above? Who is ranked too high? Too low? Leave your disagreements in the rankings below and let’s have a conversation! View full article

LET'S GO!

The Minnesota Twins just announced their 28-Man roster for Opening Day of the 2022 season. Here are the names and one question facing each player on the roster. Catchers Ryan Jeffers: Will more at-bats against LHP take Jeffers to a new level? Over the last two seasons, Ryan Jeffers had ceded at-bats against left-handed pitchers to Mitch Garver. With Garver no longer on the team, Jeffers figures to get more opportunities against southpaws which should aid his performance at the plate. Gary Sánchez: Will a change of scenery bring back the old Gary? After bursting onto the scene as a prospect and in his early years with the Yankees, Sánchez has struggled mightily, to the tune of a .698 OPS over the last two seasons. Potentially getting out of the highly-intense New York market and moving to Minnesota will be the change that he needs to get back to his past production. Infielders: Luis Arraez: Will he stay on the team all year? Arraez has been a prime trade candidate all offseason, however he is on the Opening Day roster. As needs continue to appear and the Twins make moves during the season, will Arraez be a guy they look to move? With Polanco taking second base and Urshela at third, with Miranda on the way, Arraez could prove to be moveable. Carlos Correa: Can Correa’s clutchness (finally) bring the Twins a playoff victory? Among many areas in which Carlos Correa has excelled in his young career, his clutchness might be the most exciting. At 27-years-old, Correa has already appeared in 79 postseason games and might finally be the guy to end the Twins’ playoff drought. Nick Gordon: How long can he fend off the prospects? While Nick Gordon was a surprise in the 2021 season, he still only managed to post an OPS of .647. With prospects like Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis waiting for their opportunity, how long can Nick be the utilityman before he gets overtaken for someone with more upside? Jorge Polanco: Can he provide Gold Glove-level defense this year? After a bumpy start at second base to start the year, Polanco finished strong at second base, providing excellent defense. In his second full season at the position, Polanco could turn into Gold Glover at second base, paired up the middle with Carlos Correa, who himself is a Gold Glover. Miguel Sanó: Can he avoid prolonged slumps this year? The problem with Miguel Sanó has never been a question of talent, as he can get scorching hot at the plate and single-handedly win games by himself. The problem with the first baseman has always been his propensity to go into prolonged slumps. Avoid long slumps, and he could be in for a big year. Gio Urshela: Was 2019 the outlier season or was 2021 the outlier season? In 2019, Urshela posted a .889 OPS in 132 games with the Yankees. Last season, Urshela posted a mediocre .720 OPS in 116 games with the Yankees. Which is the norm and which is the outlier? We’ll soon find out. Outfielders Byron Buxton: Will he win the MVP this year? Having already received his big payday, and coming into the season fully healthy, this looks like it could be the year that Byron puts it all together. With upside higher than almost anyone else in the Majors, an MVP looks in the realm of possibilities for Buck. Gilberto Celestino: How much upside is there? A surprise addition to the Opening Day roster, Celestino was named fourth outfielder over Kyle Garlick. Celestino has been on top-prospect lists for the Twins since coming over via the Ryan Pressly trade in 2018. Is Celestino just a fourth outfielder type, or is there more? Could he use this opportunity to really burst onto the scene? Max Kepler: Can he hit left handed pitching again? Max Kepler had the best season of his career in 2019, largely because of the success that he had against left-handed pitching, posting a .880 OPS against southpaws that year. Every other year of his career, Kepler has struggled mightily against lefties, shown by his .509 OPS against them last season. Can he hit left handers again? Alex Kirilloff: Can he burst onto the scene with a now-healthy wrist? After a strong start to the year in 2022, Alex Kirilloff sustained a wrist injury which hampered his play immensely. Following the injury, Kirilloff lost almost all of his power, managing a slugging percentage of just .387. Now healthy, what can he do? Starting Pitchers Chris Archer: How long of a leash will he have? Check out Cody’s article linked above! Dylan Bundy: Can he ride his slider to a nice season? The Twins love sliders and Dylan Bundy has a good one. Even though he had a 36% whiff rate on his slider last year, Bundy only threw it 21.1% of the time. If the Twins have Bundy throw the slider more, he could surprise some people. Sonny Gray: Can he work through his declining velocity? Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has declined in each of the past two years and now it is sitting at 92 MPH. Gray has never been a power pitcher, but if that trend continues, things could get worrisome. Bailey Ober: Has he already hit his ceiling? Bailey Ober’s 2021 season was a big surprise as he was never high on people’s prospect lists. The question with Ober, though, is if he can continue improving. Was his 2021 season the best that we’ll see of him, or is he on a trajectory to get even better? Chris Paddack: Should we be worried about his elbow? The newly-acquired Chris Paddack certainly has upside, as he showed in his rookie year in 2019. His elbow is a bit of a concern, though. Paddack previously had Tommy John surgery in 2016, and last year got an elbow injection after a UCL strain. Something to monitor, for sure, as an elbow injury would change the outlook of the Rogers trade, tremendously. Joe Ryan: Can he become a frontline starter? Joe Ryan is good, but is he a third or fourth starter type of good? Or is he a number two pitcher, potential ace type of good? He was named the Opening Day starter and will get plenty of opportunity, and the answer to this question could mean a lot for the Twins’ roster-building plans moving forward. Relief Pitchers Jorge Alcala: Will he become the Twins closer? With Taylor Rogers gone, Alcala looks like one of the prime candidates to be the 9th inning closer for the Twins in 2022. After a strong finish to the 2022 season in which he posted a 0.82 ERA in his last 19 appearances, Alcala might be the best man for the job. Jharel Cotton: Will he be the next big Falvine waiver claim? In 2019 it was Matt Wisler. Last year it was Danny Coulombe. This year, Jharel Cotton has the makeup to be the next big waiver claim reliever. Danny Coulombe: Can he reliably get out lefties? Following the Rogers trade, Coulombe is now one of two left handed relievers on the Opening Day roster. The Twins will need to look to Coulombe throughout the season to get out left-handed hitters. Tyler Duffey: Is he now a pitch-to-contact pitcher? After huge strikeout rates in 2019 and 2020, Duffey managed to strikeout less than one batter per inning last year. Is that who Duffey is now, or can he get back to his strikeout ways? Jhoan Duran: Will he be the hardest-throwing pitcher in Twins history? Duran has always thrown gas as a prospect for the Twins. After now having been moved to a full-time reliever role, Duran can let it rip even further. He has already been touching triple digits this spring with ease. Emilio Pagán: Will he be a high-leverage reliever? The other piece in the Taylor Rogers trade, the Twins will be bringing back another reliever to fill Rogers’ place in the bullpen. Pagán was excellent in 2019 with Tampa Bay, tossing a 2.31 ERA with a K/9 of 12.3. The right-hander has struggled each of the last two seasons, but has the upside to be a high leverage guy with some tweaks. Jhon Romero: Can he be a piece? Another sneaky waiver claim by the front office this offseason, Romero is just 27-years-old and coming off of a season in which he posted a 2.62 ERA with an 11.3 K/9 across double and triple-A. The numbers certainly point to him being a piece, but it remains to be scene if it will translate to the big leagues. Joe Smith: Does he have anything left in the tank? An under the radar signing this offseason, Joe Smith doesn’t possess velocity, but has been successful throughout his career. At 38-years-old, though, it’s only a matter of time before the wheels fall off. Caleb Thielbar: Can he get back to dominating with his curveball? Caleb Thielbar has one of the best curveballs in all of baseball. In 2020, Thielbar didn’t allow a single hit against his curveball. Last season, opponents hit .348 against the pitch. Josh Winder: What will his role look like? There was some thought that Winder might have gotten the fifth starter spot prior to the Twins signing Chris Archer. Still making the Opening Day roster, it’s fair to wonder how the Twins will use him. The Twins will still want to keep Winder stretched out, so I would expect to see him in a piggyback type role with Archer in April. Which of the above questions is the biggest one for the Twins in 2022? Leave a comment and start the conversation! View full article

I'll guess that the Twins' 2022 draft pick (#8 overall) will be their #1 prospect in 2024.