Matthew Taylor

On Tuesday evening, the Minnesota Twins agreed to a one-year, $10.5 million deal with free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Within are the five biggest takeaways from the massive offseason addition for the reigning AL Central Champs.1. Andrelton Simmons Drastically Improves the Minnesota Twins Infield Defense The biggest asset that Andrelton Simmons brings to the table for the Minnesota Twins is the all-world defense that he provides from the shortstop position. Through the first nine years of his career, Simmons has taken home four gold gloves and shown that he has the reaction, range and arm to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all time when his career is all said and done. Defensive statistics typically aren’t always the most reliable metric, but the amount of separation that Simmons has put between him and every other shortstop in the league shows just how talented he is at the “6”. From 2015-2020, Andrelton Simmons has saved a total of 123 runs from the shortstop position, this is 44 more runs than second place Nick Ahmed and 78 more runs than fifth place Trevor Story. Simmons brings a defensive prowess to the shortstop position that Twins fans have never before seen and will be a massive improvement over the shortstop defense that Twins fans have grown used to with Jorge Polanco over the past handful of years. The addition of Andrelton Simmons not only improves the Twins’ shortstop defense, but figures to improve their defense at second base as well. For all of Jorge Polanco’s struggles at shortstop, his hands and athleticism were never the issue. Polanco’s issues have mostly come as a result of his shaky arm. At second base, where Polanco played much of his career in the minors, Polanco won’t be stretched with his arm and will be able to utilize his range and soft hands to upgrade the defense over Luis Arráez who had repeatedly been stretched from that spot as the everyday second baseman over the past two seasons. 2. Royce Lewis is Now Set to Take the SS Baton in 2022 It was not by accident that Andrelton Simmons was signed to a one year deal. By signing Simmons for just the 2021 season, the Twins were able to fill their shortstop/utility need for the upcoming season, without clogging up the shortstop position for future seasons. By doing this, the Twins were able to perfectly set up the Royce Lewis era in Minnesota in 2022. The Twins can now allow their top prospect time to learn and develop in the minors for the 2021 season without the pressure of needing to call him up early or force him into a starting role before he is ready. Further, both Royce Lewis and all of Minnesota Twins Territory all know that the shortstop position will be Royce’s for the taking for 2022 and beyond and there should be no shortstop controversy this time next winter. 3. Re-Signing Nelson Cruz is Now Even More Imperative While the signing of Andrelton Simmons drastically improves the Minnesota Twins’ defense, his signing only further solidifies their need to acquire a big bat, something Simmons does not possess. Over the course of his career, Simmons has only once eclipsed 15 home runs in a season and has posted an OPS of just .730 over the past 4 seasons. With Simmons most likely headed for a bottom of the order spot in the lineup, the Twins need to replace the middle of the order bat left behind by Eddie Rosario and (potentially) Nelson Cruz still has yet to be addressed. The easiest path for the Twins to fill that middle of the order spot in the lineup is simply by bringing back Cruz. The Twins still have ~$20M in payroll money to play with, allowing room to bring back Cruz and still sign a lower level pitcher to fill out their roster. 4. Andrelton Simmons spells good news for Randy Dobnak Many benefitted from the Minnesota Twins signing of Andrelton Simmons, but perhaps no player benefited more from the move than Minnesota Twins pitcher, Randy Dobnak. In his rookie season, Dobnak utilized his sinker to induce ground balls at an absurd rate of 62.1%, the most in all of baseball. With such a high ground ball rate, Dobnak relies on excellent infield defense behind him who can convert those ground balls into outs. With improved defense at the shortstop and second base positions, combined with the great defense at the hot corner from Josh Donaldson, it’s fair to expect some good numbers from Randy Dobnak in 2021, who is currently slated to be their #5 starter heading into the season. 5. Falvey and Levine Again Show they Aren’t Afraid to Mix Things Up Last offseason, the Minnesota Twins front office showed they weren’t afraid to mix things up with the Twins’ roster when they made the decision to shift Miguel Sanó to first base and sign Josh Donaldson. Falvey and Levine did the same thing again this offseason, by bringing in a shortstop and shifting their all-star caliber players in Jorge Polacno and Luis Arráez into new roles. This move again showed us that the Twins front office is willing to pivot in any number of directions and will always drift towards where there is value to be found. This offseason with three great shortstops on the market, they found the value at shortstop and didn’t let roster construction hinder their opportunity to capitalize on that value. In a sport like baseball where so many are hesitant to change or put players in new positions, it’s refreshing to see a Twins front office with an open mind to make whatever move improves their team. What were your biggest takeaways from the Minnesota Twins signing of Andrelton Simmons? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE ANDRELTON SIMMONS COVERAGE — BREAKING: Twins to Sign Andrelton Simmons — Offseason Live Replay: Twins To Sign Andrelton Simmons — Simmons Down, 1 to Go: Securing the Middle Infield MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Matthew Taylor on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Hi Mike — I linked the other 3 Faceoff stories at the top of my article right after the photo. So far, none have signed, but it sounds like Kiké Hernández is close to signing with the Red Sox.

Although relief pitchers have been flying off the market over the past week, there are still some intriguing names available. Would Brad Hand or Trevor Rosenthal be a better fit for the Minnesota Twins?Before reading the final entry of the “Free Agent Faceoff” series be sure to check out the previous three installments: Designated Hitter: Marcell Ozuna vs. Nelson Cruz Utilityman: Kiké Hernández vs. Tommy La Stella Starting Pitching: Jake Odorizzi vs. James Paxton Brad Hand Contract Estimate: 2 years, $14M The Case For: Brad Hand has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past half decade. Since the start of the 2017 season, Hand ranks 5th among all relievers in ERA (2.61), 8th in K/9 (12.60) and 7th in fWAR (5.5). Hand is coming off of the best season of his career, posting an ERA of 2.05 and leading the American League with 16 saves in the abbreviated 2020 season. Hand is still just 30 years old and has been tremendously durable over the course of his career, throwing at least 50 innings in every season since becoming a full time reliever, and throwing at least 70 innings in all but one. As has been well documented within Twins fan circles, Brad Hand is a Minnesota native, playing his high school ball for Chaska High School. Bringing Hand home to play for his hometown ball club in front of friends and family would be a poetic next step in the all-star closer’s career. The Case Against: After deciding to bring back Taylor Rogers and Caleb Thielbar via arbitration earlier this offseason, the Minnesota Twins set themselves up well with left handed arms in their bullpen. Adding in another high-leverage left handed arm might be a bit of overkill, as their biggest need is to replace the right handed bullpen arms that they lost in Trevor May, Matt Wisler, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard. The other reason against bringing back Brad Hand is the philosophical approach the Minnesota Twins have against spending money on relievers. The reliever position has been proven to be extremely volatile over the years, and the Twins have shown repeatedly that they would prefer to get the most out of waiver claims and sign veteran relievers than to sign the top tier arms on the free agent market. Signing Hand would likely require a sizable monetary investment, and the Twins have shown time and time again they are unwilling to do so, especially as a third left hander in a bullpen that’s starving for righties. Trevor Rosenthal Contract Estimate: 2 years, $14M The Case For: Trevor Rosenthal was an elite closer in baseball for a long time, repeatedly finishing top-10 in the majors in ERA and strikeout numbers. After struggling with injury and undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2018, Rosenthal struggled on the mound. In 2020, though, Rosenthal proved that his injury issues were behind him as he posted the best season of his career, throwing up a 1.90 EAR with a career-best K/9 of 14.5. Rosenthal re-gained his top-notch velocity, repeatedly hitting triple digits on the radar gun throughout the 2020 season. Trevor Rosenthal would slot in perfect as a replacement for Trevor May as a fireball-throwing right handed pitcher who generates plenty of swings and misses and strikeouts. Rosenthal would instantly be thrust into the high-leverage spot of the bullpen and allow everyone in the bullpen to slot down a rung in the bullpen pecking order. The Case Against: Rosenthal has by no means been a man of clean health over the past five seasons, as he hasn’t pitched more than 48 innings in a season since 2015. If the Minnesota Twins were to commit money to an elite reliever, it would be hard to do so for a reliever that has not proven that he can stay healthy for an entire season. To bring in an injury risk to a bullpen that will already be struggling with depth after losing Trevor May, Matt Wisler, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard would be an enormous risk for this Twins club. Additionally, Rosenthal proved over 23.2 innings that he can be effective out of the bullpen, but it hasn’t been since 2017 that he has pitched more than 40 innings and proven to be effective. Should the Minnesota Twins sign Rosenthal they would be taking a big bet that he can be both healthy and effective for a long stretch for the first time in a long time. The Verdict Although the health and consistency concerns with Rosenthal are very real, Trevor would make a lot of sense as an addition for this Minnesota Twins bullpen and is the winner of this free agent faceoff. After losing out on nearly 100 innings of right-handed bullpen arms from 2020, the Minnesota Twins need to be able to replace that right handed production. To be able to do someone with the elite upside of the former Padre makes a lot of sense. Rosenthal being able to lock down the back of the bullpen and being able to replace the velocity and strikeout ability of Trevor May would allow younger players like Jorge Alcalá and Cody Stashak the ability to thrive in lower leverage situations. Although Brand Hand makes sense in a lot of ways, it’s hard to envision the Twins committing money to a third left hander in the bullpen. Hand making more money than even his contract prediction would not be a surprise, and it’s difficult to see the Twins get into a bidding war for the southpaw. Which of these two relievers would you like to see the Minnesota Twins sign? Are there any other relievers on the market you’d like better? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Matthew Taylor on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have a need to sign another starting pitcher this offseason. Jake Odorizzi and James Paxton are two of the biggest names left on the market. Which would make for a better fit for the Minnesota Twins this offseason?If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the first two editions of “Free Agent Faceoff”: Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz vs. Marcell Ozuna Utilityman: Kike Hernández vs. Tommy La Stella For the third edition of “Free Agent Faceoff” we will be evaluating two starting pitchers with a high ceiling, but coming off of an injury-riddled 2020: Jake Odorizzi and James Paxton. Jake Odorizzi Contract Estimate: 3 years/ $39M The Case For: When healthy, Jake Odorizzi has pitched like a top level starter with the Minnesota Twins. The 2019 season was a breakthrough year for Odorizzi, when he reached his first career all-star game, tossed a 3.51 ERA and threw the best playoff start for any Twins starter in the 2019 ALDS. At his best, Odorizzi has been a #1 pitcher for the Twins and at the age of 30, might still have more untapped potential in that right arm. Throughout his career, Odorizzi has been a durable pitcher, tossing at least 140 innings in 5 straight seasons from 2014-2019. 2020 was a difficult season for Odo in terms of health, but the injuries he sustained were much more fluky in nature than injuries that should be of concern heading into the future. Odo has clearly taken a liking to the coaching staff in Minnesota and has embraced the analytics that unlocked a career best 10.1 K/9 in 2019. The familiarity that comes with Odorizzi makes bringing him back an easier decision and removes a lot of the uncertainty that comes with bringing in a free agent arm. With three years of team control, the Twins would be able to lock down a top starter to pair with Kenta Maeda and José Berríos for the foreseeable future, a position that has been in flux for the Twins over the past handful of seasons. The Case Against: 2020 was nothing short of a lost season for Jake Odorizzi, who struggled with injury all year. In the end, Odorizzi pitched in just 4 games, tossing 13.2 innings to the tune of a 6.59 ERA. Committing 3 years to Jake Odorizzi with him not having fully shown himself in 2 years would certainly be a risk for the Minnesota Twins. Although Odorizzi has been effective during his time with the Twins, his effectiveness has come in short stints. Over the course of 66 starts in Minnesota, Odorizzi has averaged just over 5 innings/start, rarely ever pitching into the 7th inning of games. After the past 15 months for Jake Odorizzi in a Minnesota Twins uniform, it could just be best for the two sides to move on. From the Twins boxing in Odorizzi with the qualifying offer last winter, to the injury issues all season, to not utilizing Odorizzi out of the bullpen in the playoffs, the last year has played out more like a couple ready to separate rather than renew their vows. James Paxton Contract Estimate: 2 years/$30M The Case For: Since breaking into the league in 2013, James Paxton has consistently been one of the better starting pitchers in all of baseball. Over the course of his career, Paxton owns a 3.58 ERA and a K/9 of 9.9, numbers that would qualify him as a #1 or #2 pitcher on most MLB teams. Stuff-wise, Paxton is about as good as they come, posting statlines like his 16 strikeout game or no-hitter in 2018. Paxton owns a fastball velocity and whiff percentage that are both in the top-25% of baseball. Though Paxton is 32-years-old, he has just 750 innings of mileage on his arm, signaling that there should still be plenty of juice left in him. Given the contract estimate and that the Twins would only need to commit two years to him, the Twins could get an ace-quality pitcher in his prime without dolling out exorbitant dollars or committing to him into the back end of his 30s. The Case Against: Unfortunately for James, Paxton has become more known for his injury history than for his pitching ability throughout his career. In each of his seven full seasons in the Majors, Paxton has spent time on the injured list including injuries to his middle finger, back, knee and most recently, his forearm. Paxton has only thrown 100 innings in a season 4 times, and 160 innings just once. Another argument against signing Paxton is the fact that he is left handed. Just down highway 94, the Chicago White Sox have assembled a team of right handed hitters that absolutely crush left handed pitching. The White Sox lineup, headlined by righties Tim Anderson, José Abreu, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert, combined to post the second-highest OPS against southpaws in Major League Baseball history in 2020 with a mark of .887. With the Twins and White Sox sure to battle all season for the division title, throwing a left handed pitcher out there against the White Sox could spell trouble for the Twins. Two of the other rivals of the Minnesota Twins in their pursuit of an American League pennant, the Astros and Yankees, are 2nd and 3rd respectively in OPS against LHP since the start of 2019. As a left handed pitcher, acquiring James Paxton could prove trouble for the Twins when the games matter the most. Twins Twitter’s Take: The Verdict: Upon review of the cases of the two starting pitchers, Jake Odorizzi fits the bill as the better fit for this Minnesota Twins ball club. In addition to being two years younger, Odorizzi has the experience with the Twins clubhouse and coaching staff to where the fit between the two sides is undoubtedly a good one. Being just 30 years old, Odorizzi could still have some untapped potential to take his game up yet another level, especially given the increased velocity that he showed during his short time on the mound for the Twins in 2020. In signing Odorizzi, the Twins would finally gain some stability on the mound to pair with Maeda and Berríos and would be able to do so at an AAV lower than what it would take to bring in James Paxton. James Paxton would certainly be a notable consolation prize should Odorizzi be ready to move on from the Twins given the reasons previously noted, but the risk that comes with his injury history is just too great for the Twins to seek him out as the man to solve their hole in the rotation. Would you rather the Minnesota Twins go out and sign James Paxton or Jake Odorizzi this offseason? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! Be on the lookout for the conclusion to the “Free Agent Faceoff” series later this week at Twins Daily! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

With Marwin González and Ehrie Adrianza both free agents, the Minnesota Twins have a massive hole at the utility spot this offseason. There are many names available, but two names make a lot of sense as options for the Twins.“Free Agent Faceoff” is a multi-part series where I will be pitting two free agent targets against each other and determining which would be a better option for the Minnesota Twins. In case you missed it, be sure to check out part 1: Marcell Ozuna vs. Nelson Cruz. While the Minnesota Twins are looking to sign a utilityman, they are not looking to sign a bat off the bench who will appear in 60 games over the course of the season. Because of the way that the Twins have suffered injuries, as well as their tendency to rest their players, the utilityman position for the Twins has become an everyday starter. Take Marwin González for example — in the two seasons that he was with the Minnesota Twins, Marwin appeared in 75% of the team’s possible games. With that being said, the decision of who to sign in this role will certainly be a big one. The two utility men that will be squaring off in the second edition of “Free Agent Faceoff” will be two of the biggest names on the market, Kiké Hernández and Tommy La Stella. Kiké Hernández Contract Estimate: 2 years/$12M The Case For: Kiké Hernández’s biggest asset for the Minnesota Twins would be his versatility in the field. Unlike any other free agent utilityman on the market, Hernández has the rare ability to play all 9 positions in the field. For a Minnesota Twins team that has been ravaged with injuries over the past two seasons, having a utilityman who can play anywhere is a big deal. While defensive runs saved isn’t a fail-proof metric for defensive performance, the fact that he produced a positive number in that metric at each position shows that he can bring some serious juice to the field for a Twins team that began to pride themselves on that skill in 2020. Hernández is known more for his ability in the field than his ability at the plate, as he has been pretty much an average hitter over the course of his career. What Kiké has shown at the plate, though, is his ability to hit left handed pitching. Over the course of his career, Hernández owns a .820 OPS against southpaws, which would certainly help out a Minnesota Twins club that struggled mightily against lefties in 2020. Finally, what Hernández brings as a free agent is something that doesn’t show up in box scores — big game experience. Playing with the Dodgers over the past 6 seasons, Hernández has had his fair share of postseason experience. In total, the former Dodger has appeared in 58 postseason games in his career, and now owns a World Series title. For a team like the Twins that has struggled so much in the playoffs, acquiring players with playoff pedigree who have won on the big stage before isn’t a bad idea. The Case Against: As previously mentioned, with the primary utility position the Minnesota Twins will be signing an everyday player expected to amass between 450-500 plate appearances. With that in mind, the Twins cannot afford to sign a player who is going to be a minus at the plate, which Hernández has been in recent seasons. While Kiké Hernández has been a league average hitter over the course of his career, over the past two seasons he has been downright poor at the plate. Since the start of the 2019 season, the utilityman has hit just .235 with a meager .707 OPS. His numbers against left handed pitching haven’t been much better, posting an OPS against southpaws of just .739 over the same time frame. Outside of a breakout season in 2018, Hernández has never posted an OPS above .730 in a season in which he amassed more than 225 plate appearances, a number that he will surely eclipse in 2021. While the fielding flexibility is a huge plus, the Twins showed in 2020 how challenging it is to compete in games when struggling at the plate, and Hernández’s downside at the plate might just be too steep. Tommy La Stella Contract Estimate: 2 years/$14M The Case For: Though he doesn’t have the name recognition of other great players around the league, Tommy La Stella has been excellent at the plate for a really long time. Since the start of the 2017 season, La Stella has hit .284 and posted an OPS of .800. Focusing in on more recent seasons, La Stella has been even better, posting a .827 OPS since the start of the 2019 season — a mark better than sluggers such as Francisco Lindor, J.T. Realmuto and José Altuve. In addition to hitting for a high average and showing power, La Stella has proven himself to be one of the smartest hitters in baseball, as his 5.3 K% in 2020 was the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball. La Stella can play 1st, 2nd and 3rd base, and his left handedness presents the opportunity to spell Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sanó against right handed pitching. As two of the more injury-prone players on the team, the ability to get each of them consistent rest without suffering a huge dropoff in production at the plate would be an enormous opportunity. The Case Against: The biggest strike against Tommy La Stella as an option for the Minnesota Twins this offseason is his inability to play shortstop or play in the outfield. The Minnesota Twins are extremely thin at the shortstop position, with Ehrie Adrianza a free agent and Jorge Polanco undergoing ankle surgeries in back to back seasons. Signing a backup shortstop is one of the greatest needs for the Twins, and La Stella would not be able to fill that need. Additionally, La Stella’s left handedness wouldn’t do much in addressing the clubs biggest weakness at the plate in 2020, hitting against left handed pitching. Since the start of the 2019 season, La Stella owns just a .662 OPS against left handed pitching, so would only further cement the issues that this team has against southpaws. Twins Twitter’s Take: The Verdict: While Kiké Hernández brings plenty of big game experience and championship pedigree, Tommy La Stella is the better option for this Minnesota Twins team. With the offseason departure of Eddie Rosario and the uncertainty surrounding Nelson Cruz, the Twins cannot afford to give 500 plate appearances to an average or below-average bat in 2021, which is what Kiké Hernández would bring. In Tommy La Stella the Minnesota Twins would be bringing in an excellent bat who has hit baseballs at the rate of much better known stars in the league. Further, the fact that he has an opposite handedness of Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sanó is a huge advantage, as 1st and 3rd base have been the two positions in the diamond where the Twins have most needed to utilize their utilityman position. While the fact that La Stella can’t play shortstop isn’t completely ideal, the Twins still have a second utility spot to fill where they could bring back Ehire Adrianza or call up any of their minor league glove-first infielders they have signed this offseason to eat innings at shortstop. Tommy La Stella has played with 3 different franchises in the Cubs, Angels and Athletics and proven at every stop that he can be an excellent hitter. La Stella was an all-star 2019, and possesses all the tools to be an all-star with the Twins, should he be the man they ink as their utilityman this offseason. Do you think the Minnesota Twins should sign Kiké Hernandez or Tommy La Stella this offseason? Is there another utilityman you would prefer over these two options? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! Be sure to continue to check back to Twins Daily this weekend for another edition of "Free Agent Faceoff"! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Matthew Taylor on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have a clear need for a designated hitter this offseason, and the free agent market has some intriguing names. Nelson Cruz and Marcell Ozuna are the top designated hitters available. Which would make for a better fit for the reigning AL Central Champs?“Free Agent Faceoff” will be a multi-part series in which I will pit two free agent targets against one another, examining their candidacy as a free agent for the Minnesota Twins. Ultimately I will decide the winner of the faceoff as the better fit for the Twins. The first faceoff, two designated hitters: Marcell Ozuna vs. Nelson Cruz Marcell Ozuna Contract Estimate: 4 years/$72M The Case For: Marcell Ozuna finished 6th in MVP voting in 2020 after leading the National League in both home runs and RBI and posting a massive 1.067 OPS in 60 games. Ozuna’s numbers were no fluke, either, as the free agent finished in the mid-90s percentile for both exit velocity and barrel %. Ozuna possesses elite power and contact skills and is also extremely smart at the plate, posting a BB% of 14.2 in 2020, good enough for the top-12% of baseball. Further, Ozuna will only just be entering into his age-30 season in the Majors in 2021. He is right in the middle of his prime, and figures to have many seasons of crushing baseballs ahead of him over the next half-decade. In addition to being a designated hitter, Ozuna also possesses the ability to play the outfield. Since entering the league in 2013 Ozuna has over 8,000 innings of experience in the outfield, playing all three outfield positions. Ozuna hasn’t been super effective in the field, but the flexibility that he provides by being able to chip in on defense makes him extremely valuable. The Case Against: While Ozuna undoubtedly put up elite numbers in 2020, his career has been wildly inconsistent over the years. Since entering the league full-time in 2014, Ozuna has posted more seasons in his career with an OPS under .775 (4) than over .775 (3). If the Minnesota Twins were to sign the former Atlanta Brave this offseason, they would be acquiring him at his absolute highest value, paying top dollar after a great performance for 60 games. The small sample size could easily be more of an outlier for Ozuna’s career, where his realistic production expectation might be closer to the .816 OPS that he had averaged for the four seasons prior to his 2020 breakout. Because the Minnesota Twins would be acquiring Ozuna at his peak value, the contract to sign him would need to be quite generous, likely requiring 4 years and somewhere in the range of $72M, handicapping the Twins payroll for years to come and making additional moves harder to come by. Further, with Ozuna’s spot as the team’s designated hitter on the payroll for the next four years, the Twins could find themselves in a tough spot should players like Miguel Sanó or Josh Donaldson decline enough in the field to necessitate becoming designated hitters themselves. Nelson Cruz Contract Estimate: 1 year/$16M The Case For: Nelson Cruz requires little introduction for Minnesota Twins fans. In two seasons with the Twins, Cruz has posted a combined OPS of 1.020, leading the team in home runs in both seasons. Off the field, Cruz has been a leader in the Minnesota Twins clubhouse and become a fan favorite for those in Twins Territory. While it’s natural to be fearful of Nelson Cruz’s production dropping off in his age-41 season, the same could have been said for Cruz going into his age-39 and 40 seasons, when he defied historical precedent and provided the Twins monstrous numbers at the plate. Cruz has made it clear year after year, that past age-related production precedent does not apply to him. Signing Nelson Cruz would allow the Minnesota Twins a tremendous amount of flexibility. First, signing Cruz would allow the Twins to fill their designated hitter spot without tying up their future payroll, as Nelson’s age will likely only require a 1-year contract, or potentially a second year that would kick in if certain incentives are met in the first year. In addition to the financial flexibility, the shortened Cruz contract would also provide the Twins with roster flexibility. Given the injury history of Miguel Sanó and Josh Donaldson, the Twins could certainly find themselves in a spot over the next two seasons where they might need to shift Sanó or Donaldson to the designated hitter position, and signing Cruz this offseason wouldn’t inhibit them from being able to do so. The Case Against: Sure, Nelson Cruz has defied all past precedent when it comes to age-related production, but at the same time ... he’s going to be 41 years old next season! There is certainly an imminent drop off coming for Cruz, and that drop off could certainly be coming next season. Teams constantly make the mistake of moving on from their aging stars a year too late rather than a year too early, and there is a very real chance that the Twins could be moving on from Cruz a year too late, should they decide to bring him back in 2021. Down the stretch of the 2020 season, Nelson Cruz began to suffer from knee soreness, and his production took a dip as a result. After posting months with an OPS greater than 1.000 in both July and August, Cruz saw his OPS dip down to a more modest .844 OPS in September and October, perhaps hinting at a larger-scale production drop off in 2021. Twins Twitter’s Take The Verdict Looking at the cases for both designated hitter free agents, Nelson Cruz makes much more sense as a target for this Minnesota Twins ball club. While the Twins have shown the willingness to open up their pocketbooks and spend money under this front office regime, this club is still a middle-market team that can only afford so many high-dollar contracts on their books. Signing Ozuna, a designated hitter, to a high-dollar deal for four years would simply hamper the Twins books too much and hamper them on such a replaceable position like designated hitter. Additionally, the Twins have multiple players in the pipeline who could fill the designated hitter position down the line, whether it is for an aging player declining in the field like Sanó or Donaldson, or a current prospect needing a roster spot like Brent Rooker or Aaron Sabato, the Twins simply can’t afford to tie up a roster spot on a designated hitter for the next four seasons. In Nelson Cruz, there is definite risk with his age and likely dip in health and production, but his upside on this Twins team has been seen in each of the past two seasons on and off the field. The likely commitment of just one season greatly minimizes Minnesota’s risk and leaves the Twins with clear books to go out and sign players in future seasons while this contending window is still wide open. Do you think the Minnesota Twins should go after Nelson Cruz or Marcell Ozuna at their likely price points? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! Be sure to check back to Twins Daily throughout this week for more editions of “Free Agent Faceoff”! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Matthew Taylor on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Monday night the San Diego Padres traded for starting pitcher, Yu Darvish. While the deal closed the door on a potential trade target for the Minnesota Twins, it might have opened up the door for a new trade target.After trading away Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres, the Chicago Cubs signaled to the baseball world that they were open for business and ready to begin a rebuild, especially after team president Theo Epstein stepped down earlier this year. Players such as Kyle Hendricks, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are now likely on the table, as well as all-star shortstop, Javier Báez. Much has been made this offseason about the Minnesota Twins pursuing a shortstop and reports have confirmed that this is a direction that the Twins are, indeed, exploring. Names such as Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons and Trevor Story have been discussed, but Javier Báez now instantly becomes the most intriguing name of the bunch. Over the past half-decade, Javy Báez has been one of the best shortstops in baseball. From 2016-2019, Báez posted a .822 OPS, earned two all-star bids, and finished second in MVP voting in 2018 after posting a .290/.326/.554 slashline from the shortstop position. Báez has flashed serious power at the plate and absolutely mashes left handed pitchers. 2020 was admittedly a tough season at the plate for Báez (.203 AVG in 59 games), however his overall body of work points to this 60-game sample size being an outlier rather than a trend for the Chicago Cub. When Báez isn’t mashing at the plate, he has shown himself to be a whizz in the field, leading the league in outs above average in 2019 before taking home the Gold Glove trophy in 2020. Baez has the range, arm, and flashy tagging ability to turn the hole between second and third base from a liability to a strength for the Minnesota Twins in 2021. Javier Báez will be playing in his final season of arbitration in 2021 before becoming a free agent in 2022. The “expiring” contract would allow the Twins to acquire a bridge shortstop while Royce Lewis prepares to take the shortstop baton for the future. The singular year of team control would also bring with it a suppressed cost, likely allowing the Twins to hang onto their top-tier prospect capital in a hypothetical trade for the Puerto Rican. Of course, one cannot discuss a connection with Javier Báez and the Minnesota Twins without bringing up the kindred relationship between Báez and his brother-in-law, José Berríos. While Berríos’ wife and Báez’s wife being sisters doesn’t necessarily give the Twins a leg up in any trade discussion, bringing family together on the diamond would certainly bring a smile to the faces of the brothers-in-law and give Dick Bremer plenty of talking points during Twins broadcasts in 2021. What would you think about the Minnesota Twins pursuing a trade for Javier Báez this offseason? How much would you give up to acquire him? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Matthew Taylor on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Since joining the Minnesota Twins after the 2016 season, Derek Falvey and the Twins front office have signed 22 MLB free agents. What can those 22 prior free agency signings tell us about who the Minnesota Twins might sign this offseason?While it’s fun to speculate on which free agents we think the Minnesota Twins should sign this offseason, it might be more worthwhile to use recent history as an indicator of who the Minnesota Twins are most likely to sign. To do this, we will take a look back at the prior four offseasons for the Twins under the Derek Falvey regime and the archetypes of players that Falvey & company have signed. Then using that history, we can see which types of players in this free agency class match that archetype and could be a realistic free agent for the Twins this offseason. Archetype #1: Veteran Relievers on 1 Year Deals Prior examples: Zach Duke, 1 year/$2.15M (2018)Fernando Rodney, 1 year/$4.5M (2018)Tyler Clippard, 1 year/$3M (2020)Sergio Romo, 1 year/$5M (2020)2021 possibilities:Joakim SoriaSean DoolittleDarren O’DayTyler ClippardLike most teams, the position that the Minnesota Twins have attacked most frequently in free agency over the past four seasons has been relief pitcher. Upon looking at those reliever free agency signings, there is one singular theme that binds them together — they are largely veteran on one-year deals. Over the past four years the Twins have signed 8 relief pitchers. Seven of those eight relief pitchers have been signed on one-year deals (only Addison Reed’s two-year deal being the outlier), and the average age of those seven relief pitchers has been 37 years old. So, while it’s fun to speculate on the Twins going out and signing a top-tier free agent reliever like Liam Hendriks or Brad Hand, chances are the Minnesota Twins are going to stick with what has worked for them, and sign another aging veteran on a one-year contract. Players like Joakim Soria (36), Sean Doolittle (34), Darren O’Day (38) or Tyler Clippard (35) definitely fit the archetype for a Falvey-like free agent more than Liam Hendriks and are the names we should expect to see the Minnesota Twins go after this offseason. Archetype #2: Starting Pitchers Recovering from Injury Prior examples: Rich Hill, 1 year/$3M (2020)Michael Pineda, 2 years/$10M (2018)2021 possibilities:Cole HamelsCorey KluberAnother archetype that we have seen the Falvey-era Minnesota Twins sign in free agency has been starting pitchers recovering from injury. This is a category of player that typically comes with a built-in discount due to the inherent risk of pitching injuries, and the Twins haven’t shied away from capitalizing on that discount. The previous names that we have seen the Twins sign under this archetype have been Rich Hill, who was originally scheduled to miss half of the following season due to elbow surgery, and Michael Pineda who was signed with the understanding that he would miss the entirety of the first season of his contract due to elbow surgery. Teams like the Minnesota Twins might not be able to compete for the Gerrit Coles of the world, but if they hit on a discounted pitcher due to injury, they could acquire a top-flight pitcher for a fraction of the cost. This offseason there are two starting pitchers that fit the bill for a starting pitcher recovering from injury, Cole Hamels and Corey Kluber. Hamels signed with the Atlanta Braves last offseason, only to pitch 3 1/3 innings and ultimately be shut down with shoulder fatigue. Kluber was another starting pitcher with a new team last season only to struggle with injury, pitching just one inning for the Rangers before being shut down with a shoulder tear. Both of these players would make a lot of sense on the Minnesota Twins on reclamation projects, and there has already been buzz of the Minnesota Twins showing interest in Kluber. Archetype #3: Veteran, Frame-Savvy, “Clubhouse Guy” Catchers Prior examples: Jason Castro, 3 year/$24.5M (2017)Alex Avila, 1 year/$4.25M (2020)2021 possibilities:Alex AvilaJason CastroWith Alex Avila becoming a free agent, the Twins have a backup catcher spot to fill on their roster this offseason. Under the Falvey regime, the two catchers that the Twins have signed (Castro and Avila) have both been veteran, frame-savvy, “clubhouse guy” catchers. They have been field-first catchers who excel in making pitchers look better, while being high character guys in the clubhouse. With a hole at backup catcher, the Twins could certainly go out and acquire another framing specialist behind the plate, with the two most likely names, ironically, being Alex Avila and Jason Castro. The most likely path for the Twins, though, will be to not sign either of those names as they have their own frame-savvy catcher within their organization in Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers might not be a 10-year veteran in the Majors like Castro and Avila, but he showed last season that he is an adept pitch framer, and by all accounts has what it takes to be the backup catcher, if not ultimately the starting catcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2021 and beyond. Archetype #4: Top-Tier, Superstar Free Agent Prior examples: Nelson Cruz, 1 year/$14M + $12M second year option (2019)Josh Donaldson, 4 years/$92M (2020)2021 possibilities:Trevor BauerMasahiro TanakaMarcell OzunaNelson CruzThe final archetype of free agent that the Falvey-era Twins have shown that they are capable of signing is the top-tier, superstar free agent. While the Twins have looked to find discounts on the reliever market or by signing starting pitchers coming off of injury, they have also shown that they are capable of ponying up and signing a star when the opportunity presents itself. They somewhat showed that in 2019, when the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to a nice contract, but they really proved it last offseason, when they signed Josh Donaldson to a franchise record $92M deal. Twins fans might still cry “Pohlad Pocket Protector”, but this front office has shown that when the right player is out there, and the need presents itself, they will spend big-time money to bring in talent. Because they have shown in the past that they are willing to spend, no free agent should be thought of as completely off the table for this Twins front office. The big time players this year are Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcell Ozuna and Nelson Cruz. Look for the Twins to explore deals with all of these free agents, and potentially ink a deal. Which archetype of free agent do you think the Twins are most likely to sign this offseason? Is there another theme of free agent that was missed? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Great question. They have not. It's just an educated guess given the state of the economy of baseball. I usually prefer to be conservative when I estimate payroll numbers. Twins could definitely spend more than I'm thinking.

While free agency has been slow-moving for the Minnesota Twins to begin the 2020 offseason, the Twins have plenty of moves yet to make and plenty of funds yet to spend. How the Twins will allocate those funds, though, is another question.Now that the team option and arbitration deadlines have passed, the Minnesota Twins payroll picture has become much clearer. Currently, the Minnesota Twins have ~$84.5M guaranteed to 14 of its players. That leaves anywhere from $5M to $65M in room for Derek Falvey to go out and sign free agents. Where exactly the Minnesota Twins will land in that range of offseason spending is impossible to know for sure, but scaling back the payroll 10% to a $125M opening day payroll in 2021 remains the most likely path. Could the Twins surprise fans and take advantage of their open window by outspending rival teams? Absolutely. As we plan for the Twins spending, though, it’s best to be conservative and realistic and assume a $125M payroll, or $40M in spending room this offseason. Below is an illustration of where the payroll sits now: Download attachment: current payroll.png Each of the blue spaces are areas that the Twins have yet to solidify for next season. Whether it is through free agency, through trade, or through their own 40-man roster, each of those blue spaces will need to be filled by Opening Day 2021. How the Twins choose to fill those spots remains to be seen, but with the remaining $40M in our proverbial “budget” let’s lay out different ways that the Twins could choose to do so. (Check out last offseason's version of "Choose Your Own Path" where the Twins ended up following one of the plans very closely"). Plan 1: The Bauer Plan Download attachment: bauer.png As you can see, with a $125M budget, there is next to no way that the Twins would be able to bring in Trevor Bauer and still field a competitive ball club. Signing Bauer at a $30M/year price tag (likely conservative estimate), would leave the Twins with essentially no room to sign anyone else on the free agent market to fill out their roster. The Twins would be forced to roll with rookies and minimum salary players up and down the roster to make the money work, negating any of the value that would be added by signing Bauer. It could still be possible that the Twins go out and spend on Trevor Bauer this offseason, but increased spending past what anybody expects would have to come along with it. Plan 2: The “Elite Pitching” Plan Download attachment: pitching.png While signing Trevor Bauer might not be realistic, the Twins could still acquire top end pitching talent this offseason. The additions shown above would not only give the Twins the best pitching rotation in the American League central, but put them in the conversation for the best rotation in the American League. With this plan the Twins would add Masahiro Tanaka, a multi-time all-star as well as Alex Wood. In the 4 seasons of his 7 year career in which he has been fully healthy, Wood has posted ERAs of 2.78, 3.84, 2.72 and 3.68. Additionally with this plan, the Twins would bolster their bullpen by adding 100+ MPH flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal and bring back Tyler Clippard who was excellent in 2020 for the Twins. Going all-in on pitching would admittedly leave the Twins thin at the plate, but the hope would be that they could get Eddie Rosario-type production from Alex Kirilloff in left field, while a Rooker/Cave platoon at DH would produce above average numbers. Plan 3: The “Elite Offense” Plan Download attachment: hitting.png In 2020, the Minnesota Twins finished second in the Majors in pitching fWAR, so maybe the strategy for the Twins going into 2021 should be to sure up their offense, as they finished 15th in baseball in terms of OPS last season. Attacking the offensive side of the plate with their payroll dollars could definitely put together a scary offensive attack for the Twins in 2021. Under this plan, the Twins would bring back Nelson Cruz and his back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards. Additionally they could bring in Yasiel Puig, a proven slugger, as a 4th outfielder to fill in for Alex Kirilloff against left-handed pitching. The Twins don't have to stop there, as Minnesota could still bolster their bench by signing utilitymen Tommy La Stella (.800 OPS from 2017-2020) and Jonathan Villar (20+ home run power with great speed). Plan 4: The “Spread it Around” Plan Download attachment: spread.png For those who don’t want the Twins to spend too much on a specific area of the Twins roster, the “Spread it Around” plan might be of most interest to you. In this plan the Twins would spend ~$17M on their batters and ~$20M on their pitchers, forming a well-rounded team, while staying under our self-imposed $125M budget. We were able to do this by substituting in Kyle Schwarber for Nelson Cruz, which still provides a potent bat while saving on the money needed for Nelson Cruz. Additionally, the Twins would sign a mid-tier free agent starting pitcher, in Jake Odorizzi, while signing Trevor Rosenthal who has the ceiling of a top-tier reliever with a more reasonable salary than someone like Liam Hendriks. Plan 5: The “Run it Back” Plan Download attachment: bring back.png The final strategy that the Minnesota Twins could employ this offseason would be to simply run it back. After all, the Twins are coming off of back-to-back AL Central titles and 100-win pace teams, why mess with what has been working? The Twins obviously won’t be bringing back Eddie Rosario or Trevor May, but they could bring back Cruz, Marwin, Adrianza, Odorizzi, Romo and Clippard and still come in under budget. It wouldn’t be the flashy offseason that Twins fans are hoping for, but could running it back actually make the most sense? Which of the above offseason plans do you think makes the most sense for the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! Want to create your own plan? Head over to www.TwinsPayroll.com and share your own! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I'm starting to come around on Kluber as a 1-year flyer similar to Rich Hill. Also a big fan of your bullpen options. Think Bradley on a 2-year deal would be really solid. Nice work!

I posted this on Twitter, but think it's worth posting here as well:

Much has been made this offseason about what the Minnesota Twins should do at designated hitter. Should the Twins bring back Nelson Cruz? Should they make a big offer for Marcell Ozuna? What about Yasiel Puig? What if, though, the best DH option for the Minnesota Twins is no DH at all?After the other-worldly production that the Minnesota Twins have received from the designated hitter position over the past two seasons, it’s easy for Twins fans talk themselves into spending money on bringing back a big name designated hitter again for 2021 and beyond. However, with the scarcity of payroll capital in a COVID economy, as well as the replaceability involved with the DH position, rolling with internal options could make a lot of sense. There is another benefit involved with entering the 2021 season without a de-facto designated hitter though ... In each of the past two seasons, the Minnesota Twins have suffered from critical injuries at inopportune times. In 2019 Byron Buxton (shoulder) missed the entire postseason while Max Kepler (shoulder) and Marwin Gonzalez (oblique) were extremely hampered by injury in October. In 2020, the Minnesota Twins suffered all season with injuries, finishing third in the American League with its batters spending 212 days on the injured list throughout the course of the season, and had Byron Buxton (concussion) and Josh Donaldson (quad) miss some and all of the postseason, respectively. Some injuries are inevitable and will happen no matter what, but there are ways to curb the likelihood of injuries for a Major League clubhouse. One of those ways is to utilize off days and have players spend entire games on the bench. Another way is to utilize the designated hitter position as a way to give players rest from the field while keeping their bats in the lineup. The former is something that Rocco Baldelli has done constantly since joining the Twins, while the latter has yet to be used in the Badelli era. The reason that the Twins have not been able to cycle players through the designated hitter position over the past two seasons is because of the presence of Nelson Cruz. While Cruz is an absolute force at the plate, he has no ability to play in the field and is thus permanently penned in as the Twins designated hitter. This then puts the Twins in a position where they need to either play their players nine innings in the field and suffer the health consequences, or not play them at all and suffer the on-field production consequences. While the Twins would certainly feel the giant loss of Nelson Cruz’s right handed bat from this lineup next season, the added flexibility that the Minnesota Twins would gain in the health and freshness department would be a huge development for the team. Additionally, the DH flexibility would allow the Twins to platoon the position and play the matchup game to set themselves up for success and minimize the impact felt by the loss of Nelson Cruz. Against right handed pitchers the Twins could platoon any of Jake Cave, Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, or Luis Arráez who all own an OPS above .800 against RHP and against southpaws the Twins could cycle Miguel Sanó, Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver who similarly all mash left handed pitching. Together, the Minnesota Twins could put together a “cumulative” designated hitter with an OPS above .800. This “cumulative” DH would be a downgrade over the production that Cruz has put up by himself over the past two seasons, but as he continues to age will likely match the numbers that Cruz will put up and will provide the team with tremendous flexibility to both stay fresh and healthy, expose matchups, and provide the team with a financial boost to spend their payroll space in other areas. What would you think about the Minnesota Twins entering the 2021 season without a designated hitter? Do you think the added financial and health flexibility gained would be worth the loss of a bat like Nelson Cruz? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Matthew Taylor on Twitter here Click here to view the article

If Gardy was still in Detroit, they would 100% go after Eddie. He just seems so much like a future Red Sock.

With only three pitchers locked into the rotation for the 2021 season, starting pitching is a need that the Minnesota Twins must address this offseason. After free agent targets Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman came off the market on Wednesday, it became clear that Jake Odorizzi needs to be a priority for the Minnesota Twins.Wednesday afternoon was the deadline for Major League players to accept or decline the one-year, $18.9M qualifying offers that they were offered. Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman were two of those players, and each of them opted to accept the one-year offer and re-join the Mets and Giants respectively. This was major news for the Minnesota Twins as Stroman and Gausman were both pitchers who made a lot of sense as free agent targets for the reigning AL Central champions. With Trevor Bauer likely a pipe dream for the Twins and Tanaka likely returning in pinstripes next season, Stroman and Gausman were in that next tier of free agent starting pitchers with tremendous upside at a more reasonable cost. Now that they are both off the table, the list of impact starting pitchers has been trimmed considerably. Left in that group are James Paxton, who has injury concerns and will need to be pried away from the Yankees, José Quintana, who doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, Charlie Morton, who has already expressed a desire to stay on the east coast, and a name that Minnesota Twins fans are very familiar with — Jake Odorizzi. Jake Odorizzi has had an up-and-down tenure with the Minnesota Twins over the past three seasons. After a shaky debut in 2018, Odorizzi added velocity to his fastball in 2019 and posted the best season of his career, with an all-star appearance and a 3.51 ERA. 2020 was, unfortunately, a lost season for Odorizzi, who battled injuries all year and was only able to throw 13 2/3 innings. Because of his lost season in 2020, it’s easy to forget just how dominant of a pitcher Odorizzi was in 2019. While Kenta Maeda just posted an incredible season for the Minnesota Twins en route to finishing second in American League Cy Young voting, Jake Odorizzi had arguably a better 60-game stretch to start the 2019 season. Over the first 60 games of the 2019 season, Odorizzi bested Maeda in both ERA and FIP. Some additional highlights from Odorizzi’s 2019 season: Odorizzi’s ERA+ of 131 is the second best single-season number by a Twins pitcher since 2010.Odorizzi’s K/9 of 10.08 remains the third best single-season K/9 in Twins history after Tom Hall in 1970 and Johan Santana in 2004.Odorizzi delivered the best pitching performance for the Minnesota Twins in the 2019 postseason, allowing just two earned runs in five innings while striking out five in Game 3 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees.Odorizzi and the Minnesota Twins organization both have great deal of familiarity with each other, so bringing back the right hander makes a lot of sense. Additionally, there’s reason to believe that the price tag on Odorizzi may be depressed due to his struggles from the 2020 season. Odorizzi is still just 30 years old and might still have his best years ahead of him. Assuming that the price tag is within range of what the Minnesota Twins are looking to spend, the key question will be what the interest level is for Odorizzi to return to the Land of 10,000 lakes on a potential multi-year contract. All signs point to Odorizzi enjoying his time with the Minnesota Twins, and a great fit with Wes Johnson as his pitching coach. However, after the qualifying offer kept him from cashing in on a long-term deal last offseason, as well as being held out of the 2020 postseason, it’s fair to wonder if Odorizzi is ready to move onto a different franchise and hopefully find better luck elsewhere. As currently constructed the Minnesota Twins would be relying on Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak as their fourth and fifth starting pitchers, with the hope of a younger prospect such as Jhoan Duran making an impact later in the season. With championship aspirations in mind, the Twins simply need to add more impact pitching. The trade market will certainly be something the Twins will look to explore this offseason, but adding an impact starting pitcher via free agency is another area the Twins will need to capitalize on. While it’s often tempting to look outside the organization for those impact free agents, the Minnesota Twins don’t need to look far to bring back their impact pitcher, as Jake Odorizzi would be a huge piece to kick-start a big season in 2021. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article