Using History to Decipher Who the Twins Will Sign This Offseason

While it’s fun to speculate on which free agents we think the Minnesota Twins should sign this offseason, it might be more worthwhile to use recent history as an indicator of who the Minnesota Twins are most likely to sign. To do this, we will take a look back at the prior four offseasons for the Twins under the Derek Falvey regime and the archetypes of players that Falvey & company have signed. Then using that history, we can see which types of players in this free agency class match that archetype and could be a realistic free agent for the Twins this offseason.

Archetype #1: Veteran Relievers on 1 Year Deals

Prior examples:

• Zach Duke, 1 year/$2.15M (2018)
  
• Fernando Rodney, 1 year/$4.5M (2018)
  
• Tyler Clippard, 1 year/$3M (2020)
  
• Sergio Romo, 1 year/$5M (2020)
  

2021 possibilities:

• Joakim Soria
  
• Sean Doolittle
  
• Darren O’Day
  
• Tyler Clippard
  

Like most teams, the position that the Minnesota Twins have attacked most frequently in free agency over the past four seasons has been relief pitcher. Upon looking at those reliever free agency signings, there is one singular theme that binds them together — they are largely veteran on one-year deals. Over the past four years the Twins have signed 8 relief pitchers. Seven of those eight relief pitchers have been signed on one-year deals (only Addison Reed’s two-year deal being the outlier), and the average age of those seven relief pitchers has been 37 years old.

So, while it’s fun to speculate on the Twins going out and signing a top-tier free agent reliever like Liam Hendriks or Brad Hand, chances are the Minnesota Twins are going to stick with what has worked for them, and sign another aging veteran on a one-year contract. Players like Joakim Soria (36), Sean Doolittle (34), Darren O’Day (38) or Tyler Clippard (35) definitely fit the archetype for a Falvey-like free agent more than Liam Hendriks and are the names we should expect to see the Minnesota Twins go after this offseason.

Archetype #2: Starting Pitchers Recovering from Injury

Prior examples:

• Rich Hill, 1 year/$3M (2020)
  
• Michael Pineda, 2 years/$10M (2018)
  

2021 possibilities:

• Cole Hamels
  
• Corey Kluber
  

Another archetype that we have seen the Falvey-era Minnesota Twins sign in free agency has been starting pitchers recovering from injury. This is a category of player that typically comes with a built-in discount due to the inherent risk of pitching injuries, and the Twins haven’t shied away from capitalizing on that discount. The previous names that we have seen the Twins sign under this archetype have been Rich Hill, who was originally scheduled to miss half of the following season due to elbow surgery, and Michael Pineda who was signed with the understanding that he would miss the entirety of the first season of his contract due to elbow surgery. Teams like the Minnesota Twins might not be able to compete for the Gerrit Coles of the world, but if they hit on a discounted pitcher due to injury, they could acquire a top-flight pitcher for a fraction of the cost.

This offseason there are two starting pitchers that fit the bill for a starting pitcher recovering from injury, Cole Hamels and Corey Kluber. Hamels signed with the Atlanta Braves last offseason, only to pitch 3 1/3 innings and ultimately be shut down with shoulder fatigue. Kluber was another starting pitcher with a new team last season only to struggle with injury, pitching just one inning for the Rangers before being shut down with a shoulder tear. Both of these players would make a lot of sense on the Minnesota Twins on reclamation projects, and there has already been buzz of the Minnesota Twins showing interest in Kluber.

Archetype #3: Veteran, Frame-Savvy, “Clubhouse Guy” Catchers

Prior examples:

• Jason Castro, 3 year/$24.5M (2017)
  
• Alex Avila, 1 year/$4.25M (2020)
  

2021 possibilities:

• Alex Avila
  
• Jason Castro
  

With Alex Avila becoming a free agent, the Twins have a backup catcher spot to fill on their roster this offseason. Under the Falvey regime, the two catchers that the Twins have signed (Castro and Avila) have both been veteran, frame-savvy, “clubhouse guy” catchers. They have been field-first catchers who excel in making pitchers look better, while being high character guys in the clubhouse.

With a hole at backup catcher, the Twins could certainly go out and acquire another framing specialist behind the plate, with the two most likely names, ironically, being Alex Avila and Jason Castro. The most likely path for the Twins, though, will be to not sign either of those names as they have their own frame-savvy catcher within their organization in Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers might not be a 10-year veteran in the Majors like Castro and Avila, but he showed last season that he is an adept pitch framer, and by all accounts has what it takes to be the backup catcher, if not ultimately the starting catcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2021 and beyond.

Archetype #4: Top-Tier, Superstar Free Agent

Prior examples:

• Nelson Cruz, 1 year/$14M + $12M second year option (2019)
  
• Josh Donaldson, 4 years/$92M (2020)
  

2021 possibilities:

• Trevor Bauer
  
• Masahiro Tanaka
  
• Marcell Ozuna
  
• Nelson Cruz
  

The final archetype of free agent that the Falvey-era Twins have shown that they are capable of signing is the top-tier, superstar free agent. While the Twins have looked to find discounts on the reliever market or by signing starting pitchers coming off of injury, they have also shown that they are capable of ponying up and signing a star when the opportunity presents itself. They somewhat showed that in 2019, when the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to a nice contract, but they really proved it last offseason, when they signed Josh Donaldson to a franchise record $92M deal. Twins fans might still cry “Pohlad Pocket Protector”, but this front office has shown that when the right player is out there, and the need presents itself, they will spend big-time money to bring in talent.

Because they have shown in the past that they are willing to spend, no free agent should be thought of as completely off the table for this Twins front office. The big time players this year are Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcell Ozuna and Nelson Cruz. Look for the Twins to explore deals with all of these free agents, and potentially ink a deal.

Which archetype of free agent do you think the Twins are most likely to sign this offseason? Is there another theme of free agent that was missed? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email