Riverbrian

I agree... putting the proper fingers down at the proper time is probably the most important skill a catcher possesses but I have no suggestions on how to quantify that since you don't know the outcome on the fingers not chosen. Passed balls per game is something you can tack on to add to the overall story but like CS%, the pitchers have influence over those results. How quickly the pitcher gets the ball to the plate, how many spiked breaking pitches. Either way... there are not a ton of passed balls or stolen bases per game. So, you have to wonder if your investment focus is better spent elsewhere.

The Texas Rangers led the league in stolen bases with 128. The Rangers also led the league in caught stealing with 41. The league leading Texas Rangers were caught stealing approximately 25% of the time. 128+41 = 169. That's 1 attempt per game. Plus 7 extras. League Average is 110 Stolen Base Attempts per team over 162 games. .67 Attempts per game Omar Narvaez has a career CS% of 22%. Yadier Molina had a career CS% of 40% How many bases will be stolen at will? How much do you invest to prevent this specific line item?

I didn't know that... Interesting stat... Get that info to Lavine immediately. ? I agree that splits need a larger sample to stabilize. That's why I'm pointing out the potential consequences of the decision to limit his appearances against right handers at this point of his career. If you platoon Jeffers... or restrict his AB's against Right Handers. Further Development is no longer a consideration, The new plan will be getting the last drop of juice out of his carcass. He won't get better at hitting right handers if he is not allowed to get better against them. The club will be deciding the role Jeffers will play this year and the years to follow. I don't know how I feel about that. It's a big decision. Falvey's quote scares me a little.

Ryan Jeffers has been given opportunity to hit right handed pitching and hasn't done well with those chances. His splits suggest that he should indeed be platooned. This isn't the same as Garlick who was never really given the chance to hit righties. Jeffers has been given regular AB's against RH. Either way the long term prognosis is the same. The very second you hit that platoon button with him. You immediately go from development to strip mining whatever you can get out of Jeffers before eventually tossing him into the discard pile sometime during his upcoming arb years. If you limit (I understand Derek's "not saying exclusively") his AB's against right handers, he will never correct this deficiency and therefore never get the privilege back. He won't last long on the short side platoon shelf. If you limit his appearances against right handers. Your next order of business is to quickly find that next young catcher that could be developed into real value because Jeffers will not be that guy. With that said... I support the signing of Narvaez.

I really appreciate this post. Hearing from someone who knows the people involved is much appreciated. I wish Joe the best. Everything I've read it sounds like he has been working toward this for awhile and it sure sounds like he has earned it. I hope he enjoys this adventure. I will be a long for the ride as a fan with full support.

All 12 teams that made the playoffs were 3.87 or better for ERA (Toronto was the last team in at 3.87) This is true... The Twins team ERA was 3.98. The Guardians, Padres, Mariners were mid-pack in most offensive cats and the Rays were well below average offensively. The top 8 hitting teams in 2022 all made the playoffs The Phillies were a terrible defensive team according to the metrics.

Look at our current roster. Make up a batting order with the current guys on the roster. Stare at the lineup a while. If you still don't see it. Add 2022 stats to each name in the order. Look at the lineup awhile. If you still don't see it. Just quit trying. Below is how Roster Resource has our offense currently ordered. Kepler is currently slated to bat 4th. We NEED at least two bats that can join the Arraez, Buxton and Polanco group at the top of the order. Abreu is the type of hitter who can join that group. Sharpen the top of the lineup, lengthen the rest of batting order, deepen the overall hitting talent. ORIGINAL SIGNING INFO Prospect Rank Power Rank 2022 STATS more_vert ORDER POS # PLAYER BATS AGE HOW ACQUIRED Options MLB Service Time Year Team Rd Pick Ovr Rank ('22) Org Rank ('22) Org Rank ('21) Ovr PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG 1 1B 2 Luis Arraez L 25.6 Amateur FA (VEN) Nov'13 2 3.121 NOV 2013 MIN 52 603 8 4 .316 .375 .420 2 CF 25 Byron Buxton R 28.9 Drafted 1st Rd (2) '12 n/a 6.160 2012 MIN 1 2 144 382 28 6 .224 .306 .526 3 SS 11 Jorge Polanco S 29.4 Amateur FA (DOM) Jul'09 n/a 6.024 JUL 2009 MIN 134 445 16 3 .235 .346 .405 4 RF 26 Max Kepler L 29.8 Amateur FA (GER) Jul'09 n/a 6.152 JUL 2009 MIN 164 446 9 3 .227 .318 .348 5 3B 64 Jose Miranda R 24.4 Drafted 2nd Rd (73) '16 2 0.157 2016 MIN 2 73 14 129 483 15 1 .268 .325 .426 6 2B 1 Nick Gordon L 27.1 Drafted 1st Rd (5) '14 0 1.136 2014 MIN 1 5 166 443 9 6 .272 .316 .427 7 LF 13 Trevor Larnach L 25.7 Drafted 1st Rd (20) '18 2 1.101 2018 MIN 1 20 357 180 5 0 .231 .306 .406 8 DH 19 Alex Kirilloff L 25.0 Drafted 1st Rd (15) '16 1 1.141 2016 MIN 1 15 399 156 3 0 .250 .290 .361 9 C 27 Ryan Jeffers R 25.5 Drafted 2nd Rd (59) '18 2 2.089 2018 MIN 2 59 323 236 7 0 .208 .285 .363

They saved 5 million and got (in my opinion)a better player and healthier. Id hate to penalize Haniger for Teoscar being in town. I do agree though... the medicals should be a concern.

I agree Currently 15 spots on the 40 man roster are occupied by starting pitchers. There are only so many spots on the 40 man roster that can be allocated to starting pitchers before you don't have anybody playing C. Teams need 7 to 10 staring pitchers (maybe more) to get through any season so the 40 man SP allocation will have to remain high because it's a numbers game on the mound. Let the young arms develop into the pitchers we need them to be. We should be Bundy or Archer or Shoemaker or Happ type free this year.

I'm not going down this rabbit hole any further. Teams do have the right to re-sign players and they have the right to extend players so they don't reach free agency. They can also make a qualifying offer to complicate the players free agency. Players also have the right become free agents and negotiate with other teams. I understand the process. Let's refocus -- You said I disagree and I posted the actual offensive stats of both. You replied I personally think the Mariners did better with Teoscar. That isn't a slam on Haniger by saying Teoscar is better. However, it doesn't matter what I think about the Mariners though. I think Haniger is a big offensive upgrade over Kepler for the TWINS. I think the Twins desperately need a couple of top of the order bats to make sure that Kepler is NOT a top of the order bat.

After 6 years of service. Players are eligible for free agency. It says so in the CBA.

The Angels maybe finally addressing the issue that has plaqued them for a long time. Depth If they keep this up. Having Trout and Ohtani might matter in 2023.

Agreed. As hard as I've been on Kepler. I think the thing to do is roster him since you are paying the 8 million anyway and see if Kepler can improve and help the team out. We will need that Buxton replacement. However... what you don't do is say we have Kepler so we don't need anybody else. In the case of Haniger being that guy. Health is exactly why you don't do it. Everything else is why you absolutely do it. If the club can build sufficient depth. If Larnach and Kirilloff and Gordon and Kepler can show they can help us win games. A Haniger injury won't matter as much and if Hanger is healthy... that would be awesome to have Haniger, Larnach, Kirilloff, Gordon and Kepler all getting it done. I like Haniger but I'm ok with anyone they bring in... As long as that guy that is a top of the order bat. And in bring in another one along with Haniger, Correa or Drury or anyone that will OPS over .750 for the top of the order. The team will look a lot better if Gordon or Miranda is hitting 5 or 6 of 7 in the order. It's the off-season... Load up

If you look at the current Twins Roster. Kyle Garlick who isn't allowed to face Right Handed Pitching is ranked second in Slugging Percentage. Third place belongs to Nick Gordon. Let me repeat that condescendingly. 2nd place belongs to a guy who isn't allowed to face RH pitching and third place belongs to Nick Gordon. Typical hitting positions like 1B and RF are currently projected to be handled by players (Arraez and Kepler) who did not reach DOUBLE DIGITS in home runs despite over 400 AB's for both. But... whatever... Let me repeat. Kyle Garlick who isn't allowed to face RH pitching is in 2nd place and Nick Gordon is currently ranked third in 2022 slugging. We need a couple of bats who can piss pound that baseball. This is as obvious as a Naked Person walking into a supermarket. Ranked by 2022 Slugging Percentage Buxton .526 Garlick .433 Gordon .427 Miranda .426 Arraez .420 Larnach .406 Polanco .405 Farmer .386 Kirilloff .361 Jeffers .360 Kepler .348 Celestino .302

I have spent way too much time attacking Kepler and I've been telling myself that I should back off. He's a human being and I don't like being that guy. Yet... you say taking a step back offensively? Well... It's obvious now. I have indeed spent way too much time attacking Kepler because if this is the Kepler perception... there is no point in my continuing because... well... the journey is just too long it seems. So here are the actual stats copied and pasted from B-Ref. Kepler Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 8 Yrs 837 3361 2955 439 686 162 13 129 400 33 15 345 603 .232 .317 .427 .744 101 1261 30 35 2 24 11 162 Game Avg. 162 651 572 85 133 31 3 25 77 6 3 67 117 .232 .317 .427 .744 101 244 6 2015 22 MIN AL 3 7 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .143 .143 .143 .286 -21 1 0 0 0 0 0 /H9 2016 23 MIN AL 113 447 396 52 93 20 2 17 63 6 2 42 93 .235 .309 .424 .734 96 168 2 3 1 5 3 *9/8H3 2017 24 MIN AL 147 568 511 67 124 32 2 19 69 6 1 47 114 .243 .312 .425 .737 95 217 5 6 1 3 2 *98H/D 2018 25 MIN AL 156 611 532 80 119 30 4 20 58 4 5 71 96 .224 .319 .408 .727 97 217 8 5 0 3 2 *98H/D3 2019 26 MIN AL 134 596 524 98 132 32 0 36 90 1 5 60 99 .252 .336 .519 .855 123 272 5 8 0 4 0 *98/HD MVP-20 2020 27 MIN AL 48 196 171 27 39 9 0 9 23 3 0 22 36 .228 .321 .439 .760 109 75 1 2 0 1 0 *9/8HD 2021 28 MIN AL 121 490 426 61 90 21 4 19 54 10 0 54 96 .211 .306 .413 .719 98 176 2 6 0 4 3 *98/HD 2022 29 MIN AL 115 446 388 54 88 18 1 9 43 3 2 49 66 .227 .318 .348 .666 93 135 7 5 0 4 1 *9/H8D Haniger Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 6 Yrs 564 2437 2164 344 565 109 10 112 323 18 6 217 583 .261 .335 .476 .811 123 1030 42 35 1 20 10 162 Game Avg. 162 700 622 99 162 31 3 32 93 5 2 62 167 .261 .335 .476 .811 123 296 12 10 0 6 3 SEA (5 yrs) 530 2314 2055 335 540 107 9 107 306 18 6 205 556 .263 .337 .480 .817 126 986 39 34 1 19 8 ARI (1 yr) 34 123 109 9 25 2 1 5 17 0 0 12 27 .229 .309 .404 .713 83 44 3 1 0 1 2 AL (5 yrs) 530 2314 2055 335 540 107 9 107 306 18 6 205 556 .263 .337 .480 .817 126 986 39 34 1 19 8 NL (1 yr) 34 123 109 9 25 2 1 5 17 0 0 12 27 .229 .309 .404 .713 83 44 3 1 0 1 2 2016 25 ARI NL 34 123 109 9 25 2 1 5 17 0 0 12 27 .229 .309 .404 .713 83 44 3 1 0 1 2 8/7H9 2017 26 SEA AL 96 410 369 58 104 25 2 16 47 5 4 31 93 .282 .352 .491 .843 127 181 9 9 1 0 0 9/87H 2018 27 SEA AL 157 683 596 90 170 38 4 26 93 8 2 70 148 .285 .366 .493 .859 139 294 8 10 0 7 4 *98/7D AS,MVP-11 2019 28 SEA AL 63 283 246 46 54 13 1 15 32 4 0 30 81 .220 .314 .463 .778 108 114 3 5 0 2 1 98/DH 2021 30 SEA AL 157 691 620 110 157 23 2 39 100 1 0 54 169 .253 .318 .485 .804 122 301 12 9 0 8 2 *9D MVP-20 2022 31 SEA AL 57 247 224 31 55 8 0 11 34 0 0 20 65 .246 .308 .429 .736 114 96 7 1 0 2 1 9D

Brandon Drury is a better choice IMO.

When I think of Mancini... I can't help think about 2019 Mancini. .294 hitter with 35 Ding Dongs. He wasn't quite the same with Baltimore last year but he still hit decently so I would have taken him at the trade deadline last year when the choices were limited to sellers. During the off-season, the choices are not as limited so I'm looking elsewhere for a bigger bang.

I'm pretty sure this is a set up line and I know you went a different direction in your well written article. However... There are probably people out there who think Farmer becomes superfluous if we Sign Correa or one of the big 4 to play SS... or trade for one. I'll say this every chance I can. In Baseball, there is no such thing as superfluous. I'm not sure how many injuries have to happen for some to realize it but apparently the amount of injuries we suffered last year and the year before that isn't enough. We can sit here and minimize this trade by minimizing his talent/abilities and value. The Twins acquired him for a reason. Minimization is not possible with the injuries that will occur because they occur every year. If he is going to play and he will... he can't be superfluous.

Any idea where I send the invoice?

I'd guess that the correlation will be there most of the time because the traditional stats usually do a good job pointing at the good pitchers. With relief pitchers though, I occasionally do this exercise so I can find that guy who is hidden because he won't pitch enough to stabilize his ERA after giving up 5 earned runs that one time. A typical reliever throws around 10 innings a Month. If you throw 10 scoreless innings after that 1 inning of 5 earned. It took a full month to show the world you have a 4.09 ERA when the reality is 10 scoreless innings and one really bad day. Relief pitching is small sample size punishment. It takes forever to correct a wrong. The Vikings are 8-2. After they gave up 5 Earned to the Cowboys in one appearance. They are 229 Points For and 231 Points Against.

Steven Tyler back in 1973 also said "You got to lose to know how to win".

I assume that teams are using similar sources of specific data. There is a common indicator of sorts in the data set that is tripping the wire for like minded teams. Martin Perez is another example of someone who seems to have higher value than what the numbers we look at indicate. (Acknowledgement: Perez was good this year) Or maybe Pagan compares to Zsa Zsa Gabor. Looks Good but yet divorced 7 times.

Agreed with the clean inning. That's why WHIP is my favorite normal stat for all pitchers. OK since you asked Column A; 67 Appearances in 2021 - 47 Zeroes Hung - 70% Just another way to show that Pagan wasn't very good last year.

In 2021 with the Padres: Pagan 67 Appearances - 49 Zeroes Hung - 73% In 2020 with the Padres - 22 - 17 - 77% In 2019 with the Rays - 66 - 52 - 79% So his percentage has gone 79-77-73-64 That's a straight trend downhill.