Twins GFP
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Everything posted by Twins GFP
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Julien is the Twins poster child for make-or-break this year. I imagine the leash for him will be relatively short this year. If he gets off to a slow start, it would not surprise me in the slightest to see him moved. I also think he his one of those guys that may need a change of scenery to see success.
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You are incredibly more optimistic than I am. Last year: 1) The big 3 SP combined for 86 starts, with Ryan ending with 23. 2) SWR, Paddack, and Festa all had positive WAR and ERA+ of 99, 85, and 83 respectively. 3) None of these 3 hit 125 games, Only Buxton played 100. 4) All of my listed names had OPS+ over 100. Last year's team won 82 games. You are telling me that if everyone back repeats what they did last year, 25 more games played from Buxton 40 more games from Lewis and Correa would result in an increase of 18 wins? I am not even addressing the nearly 5 WAR lost in Santana and Kepler that was not really replaced...
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Nick addresses the primary issues. 90 wins is possible IF: 1) The big 3 SP stay healthy enough to make 25 starts each. 2) The mixture of SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews pitch close to SP4/SP5 quality. 3) Correa, Buxton, Lewis stay healthy enough to play 125 games each. 4) Larnach, Wallner, Castro, Jeffers, Miranda all have OPS+ over 100 There are a lot of IFs, but nothing that unattainable. I think the Twins margin for error right now is extremely small. If any of of the above mentioned items do not happen, the Twins chances for 80 wins (much less 90) drop exceedingly fast.
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I think the 4th spot is Paddok's spot to lose. Podack's contract kind of forces the Twins to give him the spot early on. But if Padok doesn't pitch well, I could see Padook getting moved to the pen. Another reason to give Padeck the nod is if he pitches well, the Twins could look to move him and his salary. With the high cost of SP right now, Podock could command a semi-decent prospect. Ultimately, it comes down to how P'Dack pitches in ST.
- 67 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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I think the first thing that needs to happen is the Twins need to publicly make a decision on if they are preparing Varland as a SP or a RP so us commenters here at TD don't have to speculate or opinionate anymore. Young pitchers are rarely in a truly make-or-break scenario if they are willing to do whatever is asked of them. The Twins may bounce him around for a few more years, then another team or two will take a flier on him. He will get opportunities.
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While they don't have a prototypical 1B guy in MiLB, they really don't even have someone defensively capable there that is close to coming up. Has there been any discussion of moving a bat-first prospect to 1B to speed up their path or fill a hole? As I have seen mentioned in other posts, there seems to be a lot of discussion regarding the lack of organizational depth at Catcher, but nothing about 1B.
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I understand this doesn't address the main concern of the article (mainly the opinion that the Twins give too long a leash to veterans that aren't performing). The bigger issue right now is that the Twins have absolutely nothing in the way of 1B prospects in the minors. They continue to patch that position because they do not have great options there. I understand and accept the argument for Miranda, but who is after him on the organizational depth chart? A bunch of guys being forced into that role?
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Classify impact player. They brought him in as a potential bench player and organizational depth at a few positions. Players like this can't be ignored because he may earn a MLB spot out of ST. If not, and he stays in the organization, he might see any number of AB throughout the season and bring a veteran presence to the MiLB teams. Most every team brings guys like this every year. He could easily play some sort of role for the team this year. That is all I am saying here. Him seeing MLB time does not equate to this team being the CWS this season.
- 33 replies
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- byron buxton
- carlos correa
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Three Hospitalized with Ty France Fever
Twins GFP replied to RandBalls Stu's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ty France = World Series -
IMO the health of the big six throughout the year will determine the success of this team. If they all stay relatively healthy, the Twins could be a legitimate threat. Unfortunately history is not on their side. Blewett could be the first RP call up from AAA after the season starts, depending on how the rotation shakes out. I would not be shocked if Paddack ended up in the BP. I don't see both Julien and France making the team. They are both very limited and somewhat redundant on the field. Gasper's potential impact can't be ignored here either.
- 33 replies
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- byron buxton
- carlos correa
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The Pohlads care as long as they own the team. The shaking of the financial trees as of late (as small as it is) may be an indicator a Twins sale is closer than we know.
- 16 replies
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- willi castro
- christian vazquez
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IMO the biggest issue regarding this was not addressed: What is the viewership for the pre-game and post-game shows? I am guessing that there are not enough people watching these to make them worth the cost and effort. If the viewership was high enough, the Twins would have found a way to keep the longer shows around.
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Poor Miranda and Larnach... left out of the party.
- 18 replies
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- royce lewis
- matt wallner
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If this is the case, then why is the entire TD staff treating Varland like a BP is the only option here? There has not been one discussion of him as a SP (what we as fans are hoping for is irrelevant).
- 52 replies
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- chris paddack
- simeon woods richardson
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I know Varland was relegated to the BP at the end of last season, but has there been any news (official or otherwise) that the Twins have given up on him as a SP or are we all just assuming? I ask because I do not recall seeing anything from the Twins on that front.
- 52 replies
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- chris paddack
- simeon woods richardson
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A hard no on Lewis and Jeffers, unless you can get them on a very favorable extension with inexpensive team option years. I like the idea of extending Ryan and Ober. Quality pitching, even SP4/SP5 guys, is insanely expensive right now and will only keep going up. There is a pretty good idea of their arbitration costs over the next few years. You buy out one-two FA years at a below-market price, with possibly another market priced year that is a team option. You aren't paying a premium for guys in their late 30's. We are talking 4-5 year contracts, not 7-8. There will always be risk in these types of deals, but this feels like acceptable risk IMO.
- 31 replies
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- joe ryan
- bailey ober
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When he was signed, I don't think the intention was to have Santana be the full-time 1B. His performance kind of forced the issue. I don't think Julien is a realistic option at 1B. It feels like his Twin's career is on fumes at the moment, with this year being a make-or-break scenario. He is probably a prime candidate for a change-of-scenery type move. I agree that we have every reason to be optimistic about Miranda. Playing him at 1B seems like a logical decision. However... I am not one of those ready to hand him the keys. His inconsistency at the plate and field is what is causing this ruckus. Bring in someone that can adequately handle 1B along with 2B or 3B as insurance.
- 51 replies
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- jose miranda
- edouard julien
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Stop bringing facts to an emotional argument... Take out the horrible PH stats and those numbers would go up (but yes, PH is part of the story). Players gotta perform when given the opportunity.
- 90 replies
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- rocco baldelli
- harrison bader
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