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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. Whammy
    Maybe it's just the homer in me, but doesn't that read like a Poor Man's version of the Twins staff?
  2. Whammy
    Family hailed from Cantstayondafield, Russia
  3. Whammy
    Michael Kopech - Certainly the one with the most affect on the Twins, so far.
  4. Whammy
    Here's what I've been saying from the get go... Keep the first $500k completely whole (like it was a 162 game season). Fully prorated for $500k-$3M. Then 50% prorated above that. Assuming an 81 game season (for easy math)... Garver who was due to make $620k, would get all of the first $500k, then a prorated amount (half in this example) for the remaining $120k - So he would make $560k Berrios who was due to make $4M would get all of the first $500k, fully prorated for the next $2.5M, then a 50% prorated share for the final $1M $500k + $1.25M + $0.25M So he makes $2M, which actually happens to be the same full prorated amount (happy accident by me) Where the owners really start saving money is for the $10M+ guys. Jake Odorizzi - $17.8 $500k + (2.5M/2) + ($14.8/4) = ~$5.5M I don't know how this idea compares to the ideas being thrown around by the owner or players, but it seems overall more owner friendly financially, while still remaining player friendly for those making less that $4M annually. If that went to a vote from the full union, you'd have to think it would pass.
  5. Whammy
    If you were to attempt to build in a playing time projection, what do you think the best way is?
  6. Whammy
    Maybe is doesn't make sense to do percentiles for health, but seems like a really important missing component and certainly the variable that leads the the most inaccuracy in the numbers. Seems like they should try to incorporate Very Bad/Bad/Normal/Good/Very Good health variables into the system. Where "normal" their current baseline and you dial up or down inning/games player from there.
  7. Whammy
    I tried to ask this in the BP article comments section and I think you addressed it here, but I want to confirm... The Twins is 90th percentile projection is just the 90th percentile result for all of the Twins players? While that might be simpler for the projection system to calculate, a 90th percentile result for all Twins players logically seems like it would be a 99.99th percentile result for the team.
  8. Whammy
    Someone needs to get in Thorpes ear and tell him not to be so damn whiny on Twitter. If you don't know why you got sent down, then you're the problem.
  9. Whammy
    I'm not sure if the team previews are behind the paywall or not Written by Twins Daily contributor Matthew Trueblood: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/57555/playing-the-percentiles-minnesota-twins-2020-season-preview/
  10. Whammy
    Reusse made some non-specific comments on the "Baseball with Reusse" podcast. (SKOR North). I inferred a lot from them, but wont put my speculation here.
  11. Whammy
    I tried to do some math on this a while back and I'm not going to go back and look for it, but basically the premise was.... Ober throwing 90 is about the same as Berrios throwing 94, based on the time is takes for the pitch to get to the hitter (because Ober is releasing the ball 18" closer to the plate than Jose).
  12. Whammy
    Law has a low opinion of Larnach's future, so that's dragging down our ranking. I bet if he had Larnach ranked where other places had him ranked, we'd be up around 10th.
  13. Whammy
    Law's system rankings came out today. Twins: 15th
  14. Whammy
    I look at force plates kind of like all the silly measurements they take for NFL prospects... It might be meaningful and it might not be meaningful, but you'll DEFINITELY never know if it's meaningful if you don't measure it and track the results.
  15. Whammy
    Graterol is at 0.0K/9 Sounds like a bust to me.
  16. Whammy
    PECOTA 2020 SP Ranks Maeda: 14th Bugmarner: 16th Ryu: 33rd Wheeler: 35th Just sayin
  17. Whammy
    PECOTA had Severino as the 25th most valuable pitcher in the league ZIPS had him at the 10th most valuable. Steamer had him around 40th, mainly because they had already dialed back his innings (Steamer600 had him at 12th)
  18. Whammy
    Duran made his just missed list. Larnach did not.
  19. Whammy
    I wrote a question in the comments section of the article asking what he is hearing on Larnach that makes his opinion lower than the consensus. While Law usually is decent with fan interaction, it seems like it's usually on his terms (weekly Chats), so I'll be surprised if he answers it.
  20. Whammy
    Should someone tell him that PECOTA has Maeda as the 14th most valuable pitcher in 2020?.... 31 spots above Giolito.
  21. Whammy
    I know we've already established that PECOTA loves Maeda but.... Some names that have been talked about this winter, in connection to either Free Agency in general, of the Twins' pursuit of top level starting pitching. Name - 50th percentile PECOTA rank among SP: Cole - 4th Strasburg - 9th Maeda - 14th Bumgarner - 16th Ray - 31st Ryu - 33rd Wheeler - 35th Gray - 38th Archer - 39th Price - 40th Boyd - 46th Kuechel - 56th Berrios - 57th Pineda - 58th Odorizzi - 63rd Hamels - 75th
  22. Whammy
    Personally, I love change. If you're going to go for it, then totally go for it. DH? Universal! 162 games? Gone! - More like 140 Two leagues? OK... that stays. 30 teams? Not enough! - Expand to 32 Three divisions per league? Gone! - Two divisions of 8, per league. 5 Playoff teams? Gone! 6 playoff teams per league - 2 div winners (they get byes) and 4 WC teams that play a best of 3 series. Followed by best of 5, then best of 7 for the AL/NLDS, then 7 for the WS Tanking? Stays! You're never going to solve tanking, and frankly, why do we want to stop it? It's probably your best chance as a small market team, to "pop up" Draft picks? You can trade any of them! Minimum Payroll? Institute it! - Around $100M. Tie revenue sharing to this. This will help with the movement of draft picks because tanking teams will take on other teams' albatross contracts if they also get draft picks. This becomes more of the NFL model of bad teams becoming playoff teams very quickly. Not exactly the same, but closer to it Minor Leagues? Contract out some teams (like 1 per MLB team), but everyone makes a livable wage! Local TV blackouts? Banned! Rip the band aid off. Solve it all in one fell swoop. Season would start at the same time as it does now and be done by mid October. Oh man... I need a cold shower.
  23. Whammy
    Maybe they are already over what they are being told by ownership their max is. Just because we all feel this shouldn't be the case, doesn't mean it isn't the case.
  24. Whammy
    There was some question about whether this was $10M spread over 4 years, or $10M this year. It was reported yesterday that the $10M is immediate. No spreading.
  25. Whammy
    Odo and Pineda were 1.6 and 1.5, but I don’t remember which was which. Either way, Pineda, is projected higher per game because they’ve baked in his reduced IP because of the suspension.
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