Whammy

I don't believe there are adequate words in the English language to describe how much I disagree with this take. Usually the Germans have good words for extreme emotions. I'll see if Kepler can help me out.

Seems to me that Keith Law changes his tune on Lewis's defense about twice a year.

I'd trade Kirilloff and Lewis and not even blink. That's incredible value for Chapman. Chapman already is at 3rd base what we all dream of Buxton being in CF. Incredible defense with really good offense. I believe it was Baldelli that said Chapman is the best 3b defender he's ever seen.

My thought from “Offseason Blueprint: Bet the Farm”..... Chapman for Buxton, Kirilloff, and Balazovic. It’s painful and seems like a little much, which probably means it’s just right

I’m not sure value of the dollar is particularly applicable once you cross into that level of wealth/earnings, but, tremendous work none-the-less

This was a missed opportunity... “The CJ Cronundrum”

Obviously Cole is the big stretch here. Wheeler (5/100) & Ryu (3/60) might be more realistic and cost close to the same as Cole in total AAV. You could still do the Boyd trade and he’d nudge Dobnak out of the lineup. Since were betting the farm here.... let’s do it. Wheeler Berrios Ryu Odorizzi Boyd Let’s play

Since we are going for broke.... Do everything you said but Move Sano to 1st Trade Buxton, Kiriloff, Balazovich for Matt Chapman (who says no?) Sign a defense-first CF free agent That’s roughly payroll neutral to the original proposal

It was mostly rhetorical because it was unlikely anyone would know, but I thought I'd take a shot

This is off topic, but I'll ask because why not.... What if a player goes on the IL? So let's say I'm making $30M per year. Scenario 1) If I'm healthy all year I pay taxes in all the states my team played games (regardless of if I play, or I'm on the bench). Scenario 2) I get hurt, but not too bad. I'm on the 10day IL for a stint and I rehab for a week at AAA. For the days I'm on the IL where do I pay taxes? Home? Where my team is playing? How about that stint at AAA? I assume I pay taxes where those games are played. Scenario 3) I blow out my arm. Out for the season. 60day IL. Now where do I pay taxes? Is it different than the 15 day IL?

Also, historically, there are almost always 1 or 2 than are a bit surprising.

I’m a math guy, so recognizing prime numbers is just something I do. 2-digit ones are pretty automatic. 3-digit ones are usually dumb luck

LaMarre (2) Wade Jr (2) Adrianza (5) Castro (13) Schoop (23) Garver (31) Cruz (41)

General question.... Who would people rather have Rendon or Cole? Let's assume the annual price tag is the same, although Rendon is likely asking for a longer contract.

Before the season? I'd say that's at least up for discussion. During the season, there's only so much they could do. Maybe they made a legitimate trade offer for an ace, but the other teams just weren't interested.

As for what I would try to do... Offer Odorizzi a 3/45 contract. A qualifying offer wouldn't be the worst thing for the Twins, which would be something like 18M for next year, but I'm sure Odo and his agent really want to avoid hitting the free agent market with draft compensation hanging over their head. Go for Cole, but realize that there literally might not be a number he would accept and quickly Pivot to Bumgarner if necessary. I'd have no issue going 5/150 for Cole, but hey, it's not my money. As for MadBum, I'd be good at 2/32, but he's only barely 30yo and is probably looking for a longer deal than that. Offer Pineda a choice between 1/12 or 2/18. I'm good with either one. If he doesn't have interest, then task the analytics department with finding a buy low reclamation project. Assuming we don't get Cole that leaves us with still a boatload of payroll "space" for a big splash in the lineup. Why not try for Rendon? The window is open, but why are we worrying about windows when we can go full KoolAid man on the wall....

I tend to not think that way, but can understand the people that do. The "wait until the window is open" talk from the FO needs to end now. It's obvious the window is open. If that talk doesn't end and aggressive action isn't taken, more people will be on your side of things.

It's going to be a long four days before Game 1 so I was thinking about the 2020 payroll situation. Specifically, how much money we will have to spend on the barren pitching rotation. I'm assuming Perez's option isn't picked up, non-tender for Dyson and initially I'm assuming Cron is non-tendered (although I could see him getting offered arbitration). I'm assuming all others are tendered and Cruz's option is picked up. I'm rounding the Pre-Arb guys down to 500k for easy math and I'm making WILD guesses on arbitration numbers. Seriously. I might be way off, I didn't want to dig into all that research. Please correct me if you have better speculation than my wild guesses. 26-man Roster C - Garver - 500k 1B - ?? 2B - Arraez - 500k 3B - Sano - 5M (arb) SS - Polanco - 3.8M LF - Rosario - 6M (arb) CF - Buxton - 3M (arb) RF - Kepler - 6.3M DH - Cruz - 12M B - Wade/Cave 500k (take your pick, but I doubt it's both) B - Adrianza - 2M (arb) B - Astudillo - 500k B - Gonzalez - 9M SP - Berrios - 2.5M (arb) SP - Dobnak - 500k SP - ?? SP - ?? SP - ?? RP - Rogers - 3.5M (arb) RP - May - 2M (arb) RP - Duffey - 1.5M (arb) RP - Littell - 500k RP - ?? RP - ?? RP - ?? RP - ?? I believe that rolls up to $60.1M The lineup is pretty much set with a question at 1B (Marwin?), backup Catcher (Tortuga?), and maybe that last bench spot depending on what you consider Marwin. As for the pitching staff, there's where we have our question marks. Lot's of internal options on the relief side. New year... new fresh look for Hildy and Romero? Maybe. I hope so. Regardless, I suspect Romo is back for ~$3M, two internal guys making the minimum, and one other mid-tier RP signing for, let's say $5M. So that puts us at $70M and probably three SP slots to fill. It's incredible to me the variety of payroll answers you can get, depending on what website you go to, but let's call 2019's payroll $130M once you include dead money (Hughes and Reed) and buyouts (Morrison and Santana). That leaves us $60M to spend on filling out the rotation. Plenty of money.

The Twins are some PRIME homerun hitters.

Could be... but where is the point where the Twins (or any other team) would deem it an acceptable risk. I'm sure Dyson doesn't want to go an entire calendar year without getting paid. Sign him to: 2020 - $2M 2021 - $3M That's probably a little more than is necessary, but that probably gets it done on Dyson's side. At that point you're competing against all 29 other teams, so a little overpay (if you want him) will likely be required. You might get Dyson toward the tail end of 2020 and you'd have him for 2021. If Dyson gets fixed, then $5M is worth it. If he's not fixed, then you're lighting $5M on fire.

I know people keep saying that.... but is it actually true?

To me this is like saying “if that’s not evidence of a juiced ball....” Of course the ball is juiced and of course teams are tanking. No sane person is saying otherwise.

Updated "Last game of the series" numbers Last game of a series: 24-26 All other games: 69-33

If we have a healthy Bailey Ober through next July, I expect him to jump in the top 100 in the midseason rankings

His chats aren't the easiest to find. I literally searched "Keith Law Chat" yesterday morning and came up empty. Anyone please feel free to borrow my question next time he has a chat.