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amjgt

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Everything posted by amjgt

  1. amjgt
    I think about this thread often
  2. amjgt
    Side Note: Congrats to ESPN for somehow managing to not write a single word about the Twins in this season prediction article, in spite of 28 of the 30 experts predicting the Twins make the playoffs (24 of them by winning the central) and 3 of them predicting the Twins make the World Series. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29474430/2020-mlb-season-expert-predictions-division-picks-playoff-field-world-series-winner
  3. amjgt
    Maybe it's just the homer in me, but doesn't that read like a Poor Man's version of the Twins staff?
  4. amjgt
    Family hailed from Cantstayondafield, Russia
  5. amjgt
    If you were to attempt to build in a playing time projection, what do you think the best way is?
  6. amjgt
    Maybe is doesn't make sense to do percentiles for health, but seems like a really important missing component and certainly the variable that leads the the most inaccuracy in the numbers. Seems like they should try to incorporate Very Bad/Bad/Normal/Good/Very Good health variables into the system. Where "normal" their current baseline and you dial up or down inning/games player from there.
  7. amjgt
    I tried to ask this in the BP article comments section and I think you addressed it here, but I want to confirm... The Twins is 90th percentile projection is just the 90th percentile result for all of the Twins players? While that might be simpler for the projection system to calculate, a 90th percentile result for all Twins players logically seems like it would be a 99.99th percentile result for the team.
  8. amjgt
    PECOTA 2020 SP Ranks Maeda: 14th Bugmarner: 16th Ryu: 33rd Wheeler: 35th Just sayin
  9. amjgt
    Personally, I love change. If you're going to go for it, then totally go for it. DH? Universal! 162 games? Gone! - More like 140 Two leagues? OK... that stays. 30 teams? Not enough! - Expand to 32 Three divisions per league? Gone! - Two divisions of 8, per league. 5 Playoff teams? Gone! 6 playoff teams per league - 2 div winners (they get byes) and 4 WC teams that play a best of 3 series. Followed by best of 5, then best of 7 for the AL/NLDS, then 7 for the WS Tanking? Stays! You're never going to solve tanking, and frankly, why do we want to stop it? It's probably your best chance as a small market team, to "pop up" Draft picks? You can trade any of them! Minimum Payroll? Institute it! - Around $100M. Tie revenue sharing to this. This will help with the movement of draft picks because tanking teams will take on other teams' albatross contracts if they also get draft picks. This becomes more of the NFL model of bad teams becoming playoff teams very quickly. Not exactly the same, but closer to it Minor Leagues? Contract out some teams (like 1 per MLB team), but everyone makes a livable wage! Local TV blackouts? Banned! Rip the band aid off. Solve it all in one fell swoop. Season would start at the same time as it does now and be done by mid October. Oh man... I need a cold shower.
  10. amjgt
    The Twins are hoping he makes $13M per year
  11. amjgt
    Quite simply.... Everyone moves up a spot! Nick, who’s the new #20?
  12. amjgt
    It never ceases to amaze me when people speak with such certainty about a situation that they either are only guessing at (Maeda’s ERA) or that they can’t possibly know about (Graterol could’ve gotten so much more than Maeda). Oh really? You really think that the Twins FO just got a call last night from Boston about Graterol and they accepted the deal on the spot? You don’t think they have been getting an idea of Graterol’s trade value for the last 18 months? Do people like this a) just think they are so much smarter than everyone else, or b.) have a crippling distrust of anyone in a position of authority. I feel like it’s always one of these two things that make them talk the way they do.
  13. amjgt
    This feels like a move the Rays would have made, which makes me feel even better about it.
  14. amjgt
    Updated payroll number? 142 + 2 former Dodgers pitchers incentives
  15. amjgt
    Well, heck, if Chris on the TD forum is confident there were better options for Graterol, then it surely must be true
  16. amjgt
    Maybe this has been mentioned already. Maybe is hasn’t... I’m a little surprised the Twins weren’t also in on Joc Peterson, with the cost being Eddie (to the Sox) and a prospect (to the Dodgers)
  17. amjgt
    It's unrealistic to expect him to repeat last season, but for him to enter the HOF debate I feel like he would need 3 more seasons approaching his 2019 season. That would push him over 500 HR and approaching 1500 RBI, plus have the "can you believe what he's doing in his 40s" angle that everyone loves. Not likely, but also not impossible. Winning a World Series in MN wouldn't hurt either
  18. amjgt
    "Need" can be whatever you want it to be in this thread. My frustration with the "we need impact pitching" crowd is that they presume that success in the postseason is impossible without it.. It's not. Having an ace makes success more likely, but definitely not assured. What about thinking about it in terms of percentage success? I'll use my preferred Ace-ish target, who is Jon Gray, but it can be anyone of that caliber. If the Twins trade for Jon Gray right now. Our chances of winning the central go up, but really, probably not all that much. Say 65% to 75%? What about winning in the first round of the playoffs? 40% to 60%? World Series 35% to 50%? I want an ace just like almost everyone else does, but I get tired of the same old boring "we can't go anywhere in the playoffs without better pitching" take. It's just not true. Odds will go up, but it's not a binary either/or. Now go get Jon Gray! Pay what it takes. But if you don't, I've got other reasons to believe the Twins can win the WS without him.... he just makes it a little more likely.
  19. amjgt
    Even worse.... it's their competitive balance round B pick
  20. amjgt
    I have to assume this is 4/92 + 1/18 team option, with 8m buyout
  21. amjgt
    If you listen to the Patreon version of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, their last show they talked with Glen Perkins and spin rate came up. Specifically that he would mess with grips and stuff to get higher spin rates. Also that it's so much more real time that it was for him, just a decade ago. Back then he'd throw a session, then check the data. Now they can check it after every pitch.
  22. amjgt
    History is riddled with pitchers who had confidence in themselves but blew out their arm and were never the same.
  23. amjgt
    If odds were offered for such a thing I have to think it would pay like 25-1
  24. amjgt
    I'm going to set the number at 10 and then take the over. This gambling thing is easy!
  25. amjgt
    Nick, If, let's say, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson today for 4/100, where would you put him on this list? Now, how about Gray and Arenado under their existing deals?
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