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amjgt

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Everything posted by amjgt

  1. amjgt
    It's not a perfect comparison, but this feels like the Varland situation from last year, a little to me. With the main difference being the length of success Sands has had in the Major League Bullpen (1+ years) compared to Varland being more like half a season by the start of 2024. The Twins, it seems, wanted to just make sure that Varland as a starter was no longer viable at the beginning of 2024, giving him a rotation spot to start the year and then keeping him stretched out when he went back to AAA, before finally realizing (I think) that Varland is better suited as a reliever. Like I said, the situations are a little different, but I could see the 2025 Twins wanting to just make sure that Cole Sands as a starter is no longer viable.
  2. amjgt
    Just a random thought since deferrals came up.... The Twins could theoretically make their free agent offers (assuming they start doing those again eventually) more appealing with some deferrals. It's a way to avoid tax obligations if the player sets up their permanent residence in a low/no tax state prior to the deferred payments starting to roll in. I think state taxes get a LITTLE overblown, but it's certainly a big deal to some people.
  3. amjgt
    The most likely reason why this would happen is because Falvey can’t feel super secure about his job, with new ownership coming in. The Twins underperforming in 2025 could very easily mean the end of Falvey’s tenure. While I support the idea of trading for Cease (or King), job security isn’t really the best reason to make a big move, though it certainly can be a big motivator.
  4. amjgt
    I can't imagine what it's like to be this type of fan. Must be exhausting.
  5. amjgt
    You quoted a very small part of my original post. I put out a trade in the Cease specific thread My thought are much more complete there
  6. amjgt
    This is precisely why I’d trade for Cease. It seems pretty clear that he available.
  7. amjgt
    I trust their pitching more at this very moment than their hitting. But I also think the crappiness of the last 50 games of last season has made people forget how good this offense looked in the first 4 months last year. I believe that spending prospect capital on a really good LF would probably have a larger regular season effect than spending that same prospect capital on a SP. But adding Cease would have an outsized positive effect on post season success (as well as helping you get there). Upgrades at LF and 1B can be more easily added at the trade deadline than a front line SP. I also want to a) take advantage of an opportunity to add an Ace at a relatively cheap cost, and b) take advantage of what looks to me like a very down year for the AL.
  8. amjgt
    Everything fell apart in the last 50 games. Post All-Star break, the offense scored the 18th most runs and the pitching was ranked 21st in runs allowed Pre All-star break those numbers were 6th and 15th respectively. It's hard for me to look at those numbers and say definitively "pitching is good. We need hitting." You're absolutely right that we've probably lost more on the hitting side (Santana and Castro) than on the pitching side, but I don't think either of those are that big of losses (other than their defense).
  9. amjgt
    Worth a reminder that the Twins scored the 10th most runs in MLB last year.
  10. amjgt
    Obviously I have no idea, but thinking about it logically, it makes sense. Why would he have any confidence regarding his job security, with a new owner, if the Twins just have a mediocre 2025? I think he's done a good job the last handful of years, but would a new owner? Probably not. Especially with the turd that was 2024 and what, to this point, has been a completely uninspiring offseason running into 2025.
  11. amjgt
    With a rotation of Cease, Lopez, Ober, and Ryan, a well regarded bullpen and a little bit of health luck from the lineup.... why not? Who's scary in the AL? Yankees got worse. Astros got worse. Cleveland got worse. Mariners and Orioles treaded water. Rangers got.... healthier.
  12. amjgt
    re: Square peg / round hole Yes. But that presumes the F.O.'s goal is what many of us are assuming it is... Limp to the regular season with a perfectly decent team. Get a new owner. If we do something in 2025, great. But otherwise focus on 2026. I think many of us are assuming that what the Twins are going to do. But what if that assumption is wrong. What if Falvey is like "screw that." What if Falvey looks at the AL and thinks "damn... that's pretty weak." And he also realizes, with a new owner, he needs to make a good first impression and his job isn't really guaranteed beyond 2025. Maybe ownership has OK'ed $140M as the payroll and Falvey is trying to maximize the chance that $140M can lead to 2025 success?
  13. amjgt
    Worth at least mentioning because I haven't seen it mentioned above, that Cease would likely (though not definitely) garner a compensatory pick if he left in free agency after 2025. That needs to be baked into what a team would give up to get him.
  14. amjgt
    The idea of getting Cease is very interesting, but the idea of including Vazquez is such a deal doesn't make a ton of sense. I realize that part of taking on Cease's $13M is getting rid of money and Vazquez is a prime candidate, but losing him leaves us pretty thin at catcher and while I have confidence that Jeffers can handle a little more workload and do a great job with the pitching staff, what happens if his incredible run of health comes to an end? Things get real scary after that. We would be a team build on pitching with nobody to catch the pitches from them. If we were to acquire Cease, I'd much rather smooth out the salaries (perhaps in a separate move with different teams) by trading Castro and Paddack. I feel like we can backfill both of those spots with competence far more easily than catcher. As for what I would give up... Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Festa + Prielipp (who Preller might view as a high upside play) + A low minors prospect of SD's choosing in the 10-20 range + One other 25+ ranked prospect if necessary.
  15. amjgt
    Unfortunately, many of the Twins who did get vaccinated last Friday might not have had time to build up their initial immunity before being exposed, either by Simmons, or by whoever infected Simmons. Definitely in for a few days of holding our collective breath.
  16. amjgt
    Will do
  17. amjgt
    I know that was the main reason. Most people know that was the main reason, but it was framed as something else. I just think that that framing will make it difficult to not respect a fallen officer the next time it happens. After all, they rely on law enforcement officers for stadium security.
  18. amjgt
    This is a difficult precedent to come back from. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad precedent, but it definitely is one. It’s nearly impossible for the Twins to play a baseball game the day after the next time a MN law enforcement officer gets killed in the line of duty. Not because those two events are similar, but because they are inherently linked. And maybe they shouldn’t play in that case, but as a poster said above, you can’t cancel a game every time there’s an injustice or tragedy (edited to add: or maybe you can... we’ve just had a relative lot recently) and who becomes the arbiter of that.
  19. amjgt
    When I hear that, all I can think is... "we were hoping things would cool down, but they didn't." If at 8am, after consulting literally nobody the Twins would have said "out of respect for the tragic events.... the game is postponed." And they could've told anyone with a problem with that to pound sand. THAT would have been a statement.
  20. amjgt
    I don't understand the "as early as possible" part of your post. If they did it for the reason they said, then what changed between 7am and 1:30pm? Don't get me wrong, I support the postponement. I just think they really screwed up by waiting until the last minute, when most of the fans were already there, ready to see a baseball game.
  21. amjgt
    I'm curious to see if that adjusts over the next handful of years because of the geographic realignment of MiLB
  22. amjgt
    Maeda's contract is so good that you almost don't want to touch it, but just for the sake of argument what might be some options for a contract revision, that leave both sides happy. Current Contract: 2021-2023 Base Salary - $3M $250k for each 10 inning threshold from 90ip-200ip $1M for each of 15GS and 20GS $1.5M for each of 25GS, 30GS, and 32GS Opening day Roster Bonus of $150k What the Twins might want: Additional Years, Cost certainty What Maeda might want: Guaranteed Money If we look at a good year for Kenta, let's call it 30GS and 170ip. That would be $10.4M. With any sort of significant time missed, it's pretty easy for his salary to drop to $5M. And with a season ending injury, all he's really guaranteed is $3M The next three years are his age 33,34,and 35 season. So, it's not like you're dying to add on years. But what about something like: 4yr/32M + Team Option for $8M in year 5? Who says no to that?
  23. amjgt
    ESPN's top 100 prospect list just came out 15 - Lewis 22 - Kirilloff 37 - Larnach 57 - Jeffers 92 - Balazovic
  24. amjgt
    Seems to me that generally, PECOTA dislikes young players. So that's one thing going against Chicago. I can't say that I know Chicago's depth very well, but that tends to be a big variable with PECOTA based on how they dole out playing time. IP or AB isn't a variable that they consider in their percentile outcomes. Maeda pitches 150 innings in his 5th percentile season and 150 innings in his 99th percentile season (or whatever his IP number is). It's a flaw that if they had a great answer for, they would've implemented it. This indirectly forces depth to be more of an issue than it might be. So, if your depth is young guys and PECOTA doesn't like young guys.... that's one way to get the CWS to 83 wins
  25. amjgt
    This is one reason I half expected to scroll down and see Jeffers in the 75-100 range. Seems like just the type of guy Law would want to be "first" on. Although if I'm not mistaken, there was a list that had Jeffers top 100 earlier this offseason
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