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amjgt

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Everything posted by amjgt

  1. amjgt
    Where would that evidence be? I don't think either of the main defensive metrics (OAA and DRS) take scooping throws into account. I'm not here to say he's a good scooper. I have no idea. But I'd posit that you also have no idea.
  2. amjgt
    I'm begging you to ask Aaron to go one episode without talking about Duran's velocity. 100mph is the new normal. I know it. You know it. The twins know it. They shouldn't need to "confirm" it to anyone. It just is. His other recent obsession (the Twins.TV stuff), is much more justified though. But I'd ask that you two try to do what Phil Miller was attempting to have you do, which was calling it "Cable and Satellite." Calling it "TV" is too vague, in my opinion, and can lead to confusion, since most people will probably be watching on their TVs regardless of if they are streaming or not.
  3. amjgt
    This thread is strange.
  4. amjgt
    I went down a little bit of a Eduardo Beltre rabbit hole the other day and decided to look up where the top 5-10 OPS guys in the Dominican Summer League in each season from 2018-2021 are today. Let's just say... it's pretty ugly. Julio Rodriguez in 2018 was the only notable guy and there were a lot of "Status: Released" Fingers crossed that Beltre can buck the trend.
  5. amjgt
    I'm a math guy so I have a clarifying question on the EV90 stuff... Is EV90 the average of his top 10% of exit velocities, or is it literally the raw exit velocity of his 90th percentile batted ball. (ie. 30th highest velo out of 300 batted balls).
  6. amjgt
    After digging into it this afternoon a little, it appears that OAA for infielders does take throwing into consideration, but not for outfielders.
  7. amjgt
    When's the deadline for making a QO? "Alexa, set a reminder for November 19th at 3pm"
  8. amjgt
    Does OAA take into account throwing out runners? It looks to me it's just dealing with fielding of batted balls.
  9. amjgt
    On a related note, it's weird to me that both DRS and OAA don't have decimal places (they obviously do, but they aren't shown) Imagine if we reported WAR or WPA in just integers.
  10. amjgt
    Interesting.... and said a bit more simply.... The Twins only won 1 game all season where they scored less than 3 runs. That's actually pretty amazing.
  11. amjgt
    Wallner was 0 DRS last season (and -2 for his career), and right in the middle of the pack for players with more than 300 OF innings last season. Trevor Larnach was also 0 DRS I'm not going to tell you he's a GOOD defender, but "atrocious" in inaccurate. Austin Martin, however, WAS atrocious.
  12. amjgt
    As a lefty with elite velocity and an incredible slider, his ceiling is #1 starter. It's just that the likelihood of that outcome is far less than the other options you listed. Here is my percent chance outcome list: #1 starter - 5% chance #2 starter - 5% chance Other SP - 20% chance Elite RP - 25% chance Useful lefty RP - 15% chance Career wrecked because of injuries - 30% chance.
  13. amjgt
    Because I was curious, here is a list of all of the Lefty SP in MLB with a Fastball average velocity above 94 MPH. So yeah, I'd do anything possible to keep him as a SP until it becomes abundantly clear his body just can't take it.
  14. amjgt
    If he makes it through the health gauntlet to August as an innings-limited starting pitcher then I have ZERO interest in having him try something else (relief pitching) for the major league club the last month or two. Why would you take an incredible outcome (a healthy season) and introduce any chance of things going haywire for a relatively limited impact MLB role the last month or so? Not worth it. Take the 2025 win and continue his SP progression in 2026.
  15. amjgt
    I think you're misremembering the end of the Joey Gallo era. Farmer played very little until the end of the season and was actually pretty good then Margot... wasn't good and kept playing. So that applies
  16. amjgt
    Those three had zero value at the trade deadline. They moved Nelson Cruz at the deadline because he had value.
  17. amjgt
    I think most of us are really excited for the eventual arrival of Emma, but he has 197 career plate appearances above high A. None of us would be shocked if he's trying to knock down the door into the majors this year, but it is FAR FAR FAR more likely that he's just not ready for the majors yet
  18. amjgt
    I also always feel like I should say... I like Falvey and I think he's a good GM/Whatever his new title is. But if you're a new owner and 2024 happened, then you miss the playoffs in 2025, it seems like you'd sack the top dude.
  19. amjgt
    Every time this topic comes up I like to mention that Falvey's motivations might not align with typical Twins Fans' motivations (mix of current success and future outlook) If I was a betting man, anything less than the playoff this year and new ownership will not retain Falvey. He's not a "sell the farm" kind of guy but if he can make a big improvement to 2025 (Cease would be that) for a package that might hurt a little, but is probably fair, then I wouldn't be surprised if he did it.
  20. amjgt
    Not sure what it was back then, but it's more than that now. Time to have some fun with 99th percentile projections
  21. amjgt
    A couple years ago I really dug into the individual players numbers. Every other number they publish (I think it was 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentile, at the time) is far more interesting than the 50th percentile projection.
  22. amjgt
    Quick question about DRA- League-wide, by definition, the average is 100, but what is the historic and recent breakdown of SP vs RP? My gut tells me that the average for a RP would be something like 98 and a SP something like 102, but I also don't know how some RP blowups (or positional players pitching) might sway those numbers closer to 100/100
  23. amjgt
    The "Kansas City 70 Wins" number that keeps getting bandied about was someone saying their 2024 projection, not 2025 (which PECOTA has at 81)
  24. amjgt
    Zebby and Festa are both 24 at the moment, but turn 25 before July 1 (SWR turns 25 in September). Julien, Royce, and Martin are all 25 right now. It not like they’re an old team. In 2024 they were around the 10th youngest, depending on how you track that, and our 3 oldest players on last years roster (Santana, Farmer, and Thielbar) are gone.
  25. amjgt
    I’d bump SWR up to 5. I like Keaschall as a prospect, but Sim has done it in the majors, for basically an entire year. Like if you were making a trade with another team, and said “choose between these two,” I feel like more teams would take SWR, but I could be wrong. Maybe I’d flip flop Lee and Rodriguez Hard to quibble much with the rest.
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