Cody Pirkl

The Twins went and got their guy this winter, inking Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30m deal. Unfortunately in the early going, the red flags are already piling up. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Christian Vázquez was a plus defender in 2022 and around league average hitter, making him one of the premier catchers on the market. It was enough for the Twins to outbid other interested teams in uncharacteristic fashion. Between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, Vázquez’s bat in particular looks to be headed in the wrong direction. Is it worth worrying about? Vázquez had an all-around solid 2022 season, albeit with a rough ending. The Red Sox-turned-Astros backstop was traded at the deadline and struggled down the stretch, posting a .470 OPS in September. It’s a trend you’ll sometimes see from a catcher as they wear down late in the season, and often is tough to avoid. Vázquez’s struggles have carried into 2023 as we’ve reached a third of the way through. The Twins backstop has posted a sub .600 OPS so far at age 32, and he’s showing signs that his age is catching up to him at the plate. The most obvious issue is that Vázquez has yet to collect a barrel at the plate. By definition, a barrel is categorized as a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph struck at a launch angle of 26-30 degrees. For every tick above 98 mph, the launch angle expands to meet the definition of a barrel. Thus far, Vázquez has an average exit velocity of 86.3 mph. His launch angle is 10.4 degrees. Both are his worst since 2017. Vázquez has a reputation of being a hitter that puts the ball in play for better or worse, rarely walking or striking out. So far, his 24.1% K rate is up from any other season in his career. Digging deeper into his K rate is an even more worrisome trend. Vázquez has whiffed more against offspeed pitches and breaking balls, but he’s also posting a career-worst whiff rate against fastballs at 23.6% after doing so 15.1% of the time last season and 11.7% of the time in 2021. Vázquez is undeniably trending in the wrong direction when it comes to catching up to fastballs. Vázquez is still by all accounts a great defender behind the plate despite a few errors early in the season. That being said, this isn’t what the Twins signed up for. With a 71 wRC+, Vázquez has been a zero in the Twins' inconsistent lineup. Catchers are almost always defense-first players and often provide no offensive value at all. The Twins had their choice of several such catchers this winter if they chose to go that route, but decided to pick out Vázquez due to his ability to provide a bit more. So far he has not. Hopefully, this is just some sort of slump for Vázquez in the early going, but anytime a 32-year-old catcher loses all power and starts slipping against fastballs, red flags go up. The catching position endures so much wear and tear that players at the position can fall off quickly. There’s a lot of time and money left on the contract, and while Vázquez has been as advertised behind the plate, the Twins would leave a good bit of value on the table over the length of the deal if this is the offense he provides. Luckily they have Ryan Jeffers to hopefully pick up the slack if need be, but the beginning of Vázquez’s Twins career is disappointing. Can he turn it around? View full article

Yeah either betting on a Kepler hot streak or hoping he becomes a more valuable player again, because if he even had a 110-115 OPS+ his $10.5m option on 2024 becomes a steal. I just don't see that happening, though I do believe if they allow him to stay through the season that they'll pick that option up.

But what is the value of knowing what they're getting when they know what they're getting isn't very good? He ranges from respectable to just as bad as the downside of any prospect they could possibly call up. Even Wallner's 8 consecutive PAs reaching base shows more of an upside than Kepler has shown in years. This would be different if the lineup didn't stink, but I think currently his best case scenario of a league averagish bat doesn't really help them a lot. I'd prefer they try someone with the possibility of legitimately helping the lineup rather than Kepler whose best case scenario is not actively hurting it.

I think Kepler gets too much credit for being "stable". He doesn't have the strikeout rate of a Joey Gallo but he's just as streaky and the highs aren't as high. He opened the season going 2-17 before going on the IL, was a respectable hitter for a time, but is now 2 for his last 28. He is a solid overall player but it's his defense that keeps him from being completely without value. This lineup needs more imo.

1. They could have sent Kepler on a rehab stint but they're not just going to keep him on the IL if he's healthy and that would have created a couple more days for Wallner is all 2. They don't want Solano playing 2B and this wouldn't open up any ABs for Wallner 3 and 4. optioning a reliever opens roster spot for Wallner but not any at bats.

Max Kepler is the worst qualified player in baseball against left handed pitching since his debut and still gets semi regular starts against left handed pitching. He has a below league average batting line since 2019 in large part because he continues to get these matchups and yet he's an everyday player for the Twins. They've come right out and said they think he's better offensively than his results indicate, which have been below average in every season but 2019 and the shortened 2020. If he were on any other team he'd be in a strict platoon, but the Twins love him too much to make that decision. He's absolutely an organizational favorite. Another team would have cut bait for whatever value he had years ago.

Max Kepler is the 41st ranked right fielder in baseball by wRC+ minimum 550 plate appearances. 20th in fWAR during that time. That's pretty darn mediocre if you ask me. There's a level of diminishing returns in right field when almost all of the value comes from defense.

The broader point of the entire piece though is that the Twins are struggling offensively and Wallner has been a positive at least for a few days. Ideally they give Wallner room to keep playing and see what happens, but they've set themselves up for that to be impossible and the big payoff is getting Max kepler back in the lineup. I'd just argue they don't have good enough players to leave zero opportunity for prospects to earn jobs without injury. In Kepler's case it feels like he could miss 2 months and have Wallner, Larnach or whoever put up all star numbers and they'd still send them right back down to get their best buddy Max back in the mix.

They technically could but then he has to stay down for 15 days and it'd only be a temporary fix for Wallner staying up. Plus they're going to play Kepler everyday. Just an unfortunate reality. I don't think they want Wallner to stay up unless he's in the lineup near everyday.

The Twins clearly feel differently. Larnach was up for Kepler's injury, so when Larnach hit the IL, Wallner came up. Castro has been playing well and now has to be used in CF so they're not sending him down. They're also not going to DFA Solano or Kepler in May no matter how much fans call for it, so those aren't options that can seriously be argued. There isn't much else they could have done.

Kepler being a proven mediocrity is exactly my point. Yeah he was a 2.0 Win player last season but he did it almost completely with his defense at an offensive premium position. That's probably the least impactful way of being a 2 win player. I also think when looking back on the Kepler decision, there are several considerations. Do you think any combo of Wallner/Larnach etc. can combine to produce 2.0 fWAR throughout a season? You could call it a stretch. Consider the value of however small of a return they could've gotten for Kepler in addition to his salary that could have been spent elsewhere. Those three add up to more than a defense first platoon outfielder with no impactful ceiling for me personally. I understand if not everyone agrees with that, but that's just how I look at it.

Kepler himself is inconsistent too though. He routinely goes on stretches of providing nothing just like everyone loathes from players with Wallner's profile, except instead of striking out he's weakly grounding out to second base. The decision to do what they did is justifiable, it's easy to see why they did it. That being said, it stinks to see a prospect come up and show what he can do in an offense that desperately needs contributors and he gets sent down for someone who I think we're all certain at this point isn't an offensive game changer at all. We saw it yesterday with Kepler going 0-5 with 2 Ks and 3 groundouts with several opportunities to help us win that game squandered. Unfair to bash him for his first game back, but he's got plenty of similar games on tap.

How do you figure that? If Kepler weren't here it would have been more ABs for one of the many left handed options. It's not like Kepler is the barrier keeping Garlick from playing everyday.

I think people underestimate how difficult it is to just be thrown into right field with that overhang too. That takes time to learn. Wallner may not have Kepler's range but the arm brings a whole different form of value.

That's a piece of it, yes. The question to ask is whether the veterans like Kepler are valuable enough to justify the lack of opportunity for players who may be better than him.

This winter the Twins chose not only to hang onto their overwhelming depth of left-handed corner outfield bats but to add to the group. Finally, as they approach June, they’re starting to feel the effects. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Matt Wallner has become something of a forgotten top prospect before his recent stint in the big leagues. Many write him off because of his lack of range as a defender and his heavy swing-and-miss tendencies. He’s been stashed in St. Paul for much of the season where he’s dominated the competition, as he has at every other stop in the minors. Having finally been given a chance to show what he can do at the big league level, Wallner has come through. Unfortunately, the Twins have set up a situation where it doesn’t matter what Wallner shows, he’s buried too far down the depth chart. This winter the Twins reportedly had trade offers on the table for Max Kepler. He’s underperformed expectations in every year of his career aside from the juiced ball 2019 and was coming off of a 2022 season in which he failed to produce at even league-average levels. It seemed Kepler’s time as a Twin was coming to an end, especially when they signed Joey Gallo to hit from the left side and play a gold glove-caliber corner outfield. Instead, they kept them both. To be fair, neither move has been an albatross. Kepler has been a shade above average offensively, and his defense remains a plus. Gallo has been a boon at least at times as a source of power in an offense that has been the team's Achilles Heel. Unfortunately, those are just two pieces of the left-handed puzzle. Nick Gordon was still in the picture, as was the switch-hitting Willi Castro, not to mention Trevor Larnach, who was recently placed on the IL with pneumonia. It took injuries to three left-handed outfielders for Matt Wallner to get an opportunity at the big-league level despite posting a 120 wRC+ at every stop in the minor leagues. Last September he was called up and posted an above-league-average slash line in the MLB as well. Wallner was called up for a brief five-game spell when Larnach hit the IL and has showcased what he could do. His total after 11 big league games this season includes a .368/.520/.579 slash line. The major red flag in his profile is the strikeout rate, and he’s kept the whiffs below 20% so far. Wallner’s on-base power combo has been a refreshing addition to a Twins lineup that continues to sink further into the abyss. With news of Max Kepler’s IL trip coming to an end, however, Wallner is getting sent back to St. Paul. There isn’t a corresponding move that makes more sense than sending down a left-handed corner outfielder for Max Kepler’s return. If Larnach were healthy and playing he would have been the casualty considering it was Kepler’s injury that got him up in the first place. That being said, it’s a huge bummer. There was never any level of performance that would have kept Wallner in the big leagues, and they set themselves up for this situation. The only route for young left-handed bats to get an opportunity is through injury. No matter how well they perform, they’re doomed to be sent back down when the corresponding player is healthy. The Twins find themselves in the middle of a no man's land that they had to have known was a possibility. It’s possible that Wallner’s recent stretch of success puts him ahead of Larnach on the depth chart, but they’ll both still fall behind two players in Gallo and Kepler who have been too good to cut bait with but have no possibility of being cornerstones of a lineup. Alex Kirilloff will hopefully be up to stay. Nick Gordon will also be back later this season. The Twins have an undeniable unwillingness to turn the page on organizational favorites like Max Kepler, and to be fair, Kepler has justified the move. Joey Gallo has been a strong addition to the team even with his well-known deficiencies. Rostering both is beginning to stretch the definition of the word “depth” As the lineup continues to find new lows it’s becoming fair to wonder whether new faces might be the answer rather than relying on a full lineup rebound. Matt Wallner will head back to St. Paul having reached base in eight consecutive plate appearances. There’s a small chance at the very least that he was becoming a much-needed contributor to the Twins lineup, and if they had the ability, it’s fair to say the Twins would have allowed this hot streak to play out. Unfortunately, we really won’t know until another injury occurs, and that’s a shame. View full article

The Twins are having some bullpen issues between over usage, performance, and injury. An addition at the deadline may be in the cards, but it’s too early to move on that. What do the Twins have for internal bullpen options? Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports If the Twins front office has developed an identity for themselves, it’s that they don’t care about bullpen additions at all. Their one big external addition was Jorge Lopez in 2022, who cost them dearly in prospect capital after ignoring relief additions in the offseason. Still their approach to bullpen construction didn’t change. Their relief corps is off to a better start in 2023 than last season, but it’s been far from ideal. Griffin Jax is struggling, Caleb Thielbar is on the shelf, and after a solid start, Emilio Pagán is Pagáning it up once more. It may be time for the Twins to take a leap and try a new reliever in the big league bullpen. What internal options do they have? Cody Laweryson Laweryson is a former 14th-round pick from 2019 who’s worked his way up to Triple-A this season. He doesn’t throw hard and lacks any particular wipeout pitch, but his results speak for themselves. Geared with 70-grade command, Laweryson posted a sub 2.00 ERA between Wichita and St. Paul in 2022 and boasts a 2.66 mark so far in 2023. His 1.33 HR/9 to begin the season is inflated by an absurd 15% HR/FB rate, and he’s striking out over 27% of hitters so far and holding them to a .211 average. It’s possible the prospect pedigree and lack of velocity keep him from being a quality MLB reliever, but at 25 years old it may be worth a try. If Laweryson can replicate anywhere near his homer-limiting, high-strikeout ways at the MLB level, he should be more than capable of contributing to some degree. Kody Funderburk Like Laweryson, Funderburk is far from a top prospect. Selected in the 15th round in 2018, he’s another example of the Twins doing an impressive job of getting such a lottery ticket draft pick so far into a minor-league career. Funderburk was promoted to St. Paul after allowing a single run in 9 innings for Wichita, and while he’s given up a few since his promotion, his skills look fantastic. Striking out 31.4% of hitters and walking under 9% Funderburk looks like he really has it working so far in 2023, and in his age-26 season, the Twins may be inclined to see if those gaudy numbers can translate. It’s almost odd we haven’t seen a test run yet with Thielbar out, as Funderburk is a left-handed pitcher and their only current southpaw in the bullpen is Jovani Moran who’s essentially a righty. Even when Thielbar returns, Funderburk may be an option for this very reason. Ronny Henriquez Acquired from Texas in the Mitch Garver trade, Henriquez was feared to be lost to injury earlier this spring when his elbow kept him off the field. Henriquez has since returned and looks to be completely healthy. Still just 23 years old, Henriquez appears to be on the reliever path for good in St. Paul. He’s listed at 5’10, though many reports say he’s closer to 5’8, leading to questions about his ability to hold up as a starter. He has a high spin fastball that plays up beyond its velocity and likes to use it at the top of the zone similar to Joe Ryan, which leads to some homer problems. In short stints, however, Henriquez is capable of running it up into the high 90s and has a good changeup and solid slider to pair it with. His numbers in St. Paul thus far aren’t incredibly impressive, but his most recent outing is one that may catch the Twins eye. He’s already on the 40-man roster and made his debut at the end of 2022, so Henriquez could be fast-tracked to the Twins bullpen. Many thought he could have broken camp on Opening Day if healthy, but Henriquez is still capable of helping the Twins now that he’s finally in good shape. The Twins will likely start digging beyond the long relief types to help the bullpen soon here. You never know which ones could come up and stick around if they catch fire. Are there any other underrated bullpen options you’d like to see them give a shot to? View full article

Jordan Balazovic had reached what the Twins hoped was rock bottom this spring after struggling in 2022 and getting a late start to 2023 due to an off-field injury. Since then he’s built himself back up. Does Balazovic deserve a promotion? Image courtesy of William Parmeter What does it take for a starting pitching prospect to torpedo off of global Top 100 prospect lists aside from injury? Jordan Balazovic showed us in 2022, when he spent his entire season in Triple-A St. Paul allowing 2.55 HR/9 innings, and finishing with a 7.39 ERA in just over 70 innings. It was quite the uphill battle to regain the lost prospect status, and that was before he suffered a broken jaw during an off-field altercation at the beginning of spring training, resulting in him being the first player sent out of Major League camp. Fortunately, since returning to the mound, Balazovic has shown that he has the talent to wipe away the past. The Twins appear to have changed their view on their 2016 fifth-round pick. He began the season as a traditional reliever and has since moved back to making scheduled starts for the Saints. The Twins remain consistent in saying that they look at Balazovic as more of a potential bullpen piece for the MLB roster this season despite his starter’s workload thus far. If that’s the case, Balazovic is nearing the point where he’s more than deserving of a look. It’s been a small sample thus far in 2023 for Balazovic, but it’s hard not to be impressed. In 18 2/3 innings, the 6’5 right-hander has posted a 33.8% K rate and a 2.89 ERA with matching peripherals. Most notably, he’s allowed just one homer after struggling with the long ball in 2022. His walks have been uncharacteristically high at 14.3%, but it’s the only real blemish on his otherwise dominant line to begin 2023. Balazovic is currently built up to around 70 pitches per outing and has been able to maintain his mid-to-high-90s velocity along the way. He has secondaries to face off against hitters on both sides of the plate between his slider and splitter, though it's worth noting that during his last outing hitters did a decidedly better job of staying on him in his fourth inning. It's possible he's just destined for a bullpen role at this point rather than starting. The Twins have been churning multiple bullpen spots to begin the season, and while the bullpen performance has been acceptable as a whole, they’ve had some relievers struggle mightily. Unfortunately, Jorge Alcala appears to be a husk of his pre-elbow injury self, as his velocity remains down 2+ mph, and he continues to allow a barrage of homers. Cole Sands had an opportunity to stake his claim to a bullpen role on Saturday and subsequently allowed five walks in mop-up duty. Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick likely need to maintain their Triple-A starting jobs at this point due to the injuries to the MLB rotation. Balazovic conveniently is on the 40-man roster already as well. There are a few ways the Twins could use Balazovic. He’s built up to fill a true bulk reliever role, but that spot has been rarely utilized so far this season and regardless of how well he pitches, it would remain a revolving door with whatever pitcher filling it being optioned immediately after each appearance. They also appear to be dead set on the struggling Jorge Alcala being a multi-inning reliever, and they’ve declined to send him right back to St. Paul following his outings so far. If they want to give him a chance to cement himself onto the big league roster, they could simply send Alcala down to see if he can right the ship while giving Balazovic a chance to snag that job. He wouldn’t be so stretched to fill multiple innings and can have a real opportunity to work his way up the bullpen hierarchy. Whatever the Twins decide for his role, Balazovic is at the doorstep of his Major League debut. His main competition if Sands or Alcala are optioned back to St. Paul is likely Ronny Henriquez fresh off a rehab assignment and Josh Winder who has been an absolute disaster since being moved to the bullpen. Having just thrown over 70 pitches Sunday, it may be a few days until Balazovic is available to throw again. When that day comes, should he get the call? View full article