Cody Pirkl

The Twins hopefully still have a move coming to address the rotation, but it’s becoming more likely that the position player side is set. With the center field remaining a question mark, it may be worth breaking down where the Twins sit. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the Twins did well to insulate center field with Michael A. Taylor. They knew Byron Buxton wouldn’t be ready to play to begin the season, and as it turned out, he never advanced beyond DH duties. Many hoped they would do the same in 2024 despite some optimism around Buxton’s repaired knee, but the current group may be what they’ll go with. So, what can we expect in center field in 2024? Byron Buxton Buxton is a significant question mark, as he's reached 100 games played in center field once in his career (2017) and hasn't reached 80 games played at the position since 2019. He underwent surgery on his ailing knee again this offseason, and the Twins are hopeful that he can return to form in some facet in 2024. Buxton’s upside remains one of the highest on the entire roster, and if healthy, he’s the undisputed everyday center fielder for as long as he can physically handle it. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether the Twins would be better off getting a locked and loaded starting worthy center fielder should things go south again in 2024. Buxton’s health could have a massive swing on the Twins season. Willi Castro Willi Castro is approaching Astudillo-esque folk hero status in Twins territory, deservedly so. He had a career year in which he showed versatility and chaos-inducing baserunning while finishing as an above-average hitter. After being thrust into center field action, he adjusted and made himself a viable option. Castro is likely the first in line should Buxton miss time again, and the hope is that 2023 was a breakout season and not an outlier. As a switch hitter, Castro can hold his own in center field as a near-everyday option for what should be a potent lineup around him if it comes to that. Nick Gordon Nick Gordon continued to mix into center field when a foul ball off his shin knocked him out for the entire second half of the 2023 season. He certainly has the athleticism to hold down the position. However, he’ll likely still have some learning on the fly after advancing through the minor leagues predominantly as a middle infielder. Gordon struggled mightily before his injury last season, with a .503 OPS in his 93 plate appearances. It’s possible this was just a small sample slump, but what the Twins think of the former top prospect is unclear. Now, out of options, Gordon will have to earn a roster spot out of Spring Training as a 4th or 5th outfielder, and the ability to play center field would help his chances tremendously. Austin Martin Austin Martin’s bat showed some life in St. Paul last year, following up an injury-delayed and slow start to his season by slashing .287/.428/.456 the last two months. At this point, he’s likely to wind up either at second base or the outfield, and the Twins and Martin himself seem confident he can play a solid center field. Martin will debut in 2024; it’s just a matter of when and where. Like Gordon, he’s a former infield prospect who likely needs more experience to hone his outfield skills. If he can play a solid center field, the offensive concerns become less of an issue, but it was encouraging to see him show some pop down the stretch in 2023. Bubba Thompson Bubba Thompson was claimed by the Twins this week on waivers. The former first-round pick has bounced around the league but boasts the third-highest sprint speed in baseball. This makes him an obvious candidate to play some center field, though what he can provide beyond that remains to be seen. Thompson has a career .591 OPS in just under 250 at-bats, and his minor-league track record suggests this may not be a fluke. Regarding the Twins needing a right-handed outfield bat, Thompson has hit southpaws worse in his career so far. It’s possible he doesn’t head north with the team come Opening Day, but it’s easy to see why the Twins took a flier on the speedy former top prospect. The Twins probably have more options for center field than most teams, but the list is riddled with question marks. From health to performance to inexperience, center field may be one of the more fluid positions on the 2024 roster. The Twins are banking on one of these players putting together a solid season up the middle, and to be fair, there’s a lot of potential for things to turn out exceptionally well. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether they should have done more to set a floor at the position as we’ve seen them do so much in years past. There are still a few options left should they still decide to do so, but it’s unclear whether this is a priority. Can the Twins get an adequate return from their current group of center fielders in 2024? Should they still be looking to add a more established name to this group should things break the wrong way? Let us know below! View full article

Joe Ryan’s 2023 season fell apart due to injury after a dominant start. Can better health and a few adjustments help him sustain that success throughout 2024? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports Joe Ryan had a 3.70 ERA through his first 107 innings in 2023 before that number ballooned to 6.09 in 54.2 second-half innings. A groin injury is a likely explanation, but pairing better health with a few adjustments could make him the front-end starting pitcher the Twins desperately need after Sonny Gray’s departure. Joe Ryan was rolling along in a dominant 2023 season when he allowed five homers in three innings to a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup on June 27. He would make six more starts, never looking quite the same before he admitted to an ongoing groin injury, which ultimately sent him to the IL. He did return and even made a start in the postseason, but the Twins clearly had lost faith, and Ryan looked far from his dominant first-half self. It’s a fair assumption that Joe Ryan and the Twins won’t just be banking on good health. They’ll likely be looking to make a few adjustments to his game as well. Joe Ryan was thought of as a fastball-only pitcher by many when the Twins acquired him. He had some risk of becoming a reliever with his lack of pitch mix variety. Homers have certainly been the Achilles' heel of his career thus far, as his rate of allowing the long ball has increased year over year consistently since reaching the MLB. Notably, Ryan has allowed 56 homers, with 31 coming on his fastball. He still uses the pitch over half of the time, and while it’s responsible for many of his strikeouts and a good bit of poor contact, it has gotten punished when hitters catch up to it. As he’s dropped the fastball usage from 65% in 2021 to 56.9% in 2023, he’s also diversified his arsenal. In 2022, the Twins introduced a sweeper into his repertoire. The pitch succeeded in minimal sample size, and he used it even more in 2023 with positive results. The sweeper became his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a 32.3% whiff rate, and was an excellent counter to tough right-handed hitters. In 2023, Ryan added a splitter and instantly made it his second most used pitch, using it plenty against right and left-handed hitters. The pitch replaced Ryan's straight change in 2022, which had uneven results. Ryan now has a pitch mix that should be capable of turning over lineups 3+ times when he’s at his best. The trick in 2024 will be perfecting the actual mix. The Twins may believe that the 56.9% of the time Ryan used his heater in 2023 is still too high. While nobody else on the Twins compares to Joe Ryan regarding effectiveness with their fastball, it’s interesting to compare him to the rest of the rotation. Pablo Lopez throws his fastball less than 35% of the time. Ober threw his 45.7% of the time. Chris Paddack’s fastball has had a similar reputation to Joe Ryan’s throughout his career, and it’s noteworthy that in his limited debut with the Twins in 2022, he threw his dominant four seams a career-low 51.8% of the time and looked like the best version of himself before the injury. We can likely count on Joe Ryan lowering the fastball usage even more in 2024, and as he gets more comfortable with his offspeed pitches, it should only help him. Joe Ryan’s 2023 came to a quiet end as he was skipped over several times in the playoffs before being essentially used as an opener in the season finale last October. His injury and late-season struggles have likely made us forget just how good his season began, and the year as a whole was filled with positives for a pitcher who was once thought to have only one usable offering. Another step forward is undoubtedly in the cards for Joe Ryan, as he and the Twins will continue to fine-tune his approach. The hope is that he can return a clean bill of health in 2024, as he’d shown for the entirety of his professional career before 2023. If the second half of the season made you forget, here’s your reminder: Joe Ryan will be a massive piece of the 2024 rotation. View full article

It was pretty surprising news that Arraez was available again, and many fans spent much of last year wishing Arraez was still in the lineup. I think there are people that would agree that it's a fun discussion to have.

"Continuing to give him troubles" may not be the correct phrasing, but back in mid December the Twins still weren't willing to put a timeline on his return to baseball activity. As usual I'm sure that's about all we'll get for news until Spring Training or unless they acquire another first baseman, in which case we can read the tea leaves.

That's the expectation, but a lot of folks were pretty certain Kirilloff would be ready for Opening Day last year and that wasn't the case. Completely different injury, but I guess my point is with a player that has his injury history, it's very possible something comes up before OD, whether it's the shoulder or something else. He's one of the players I wouldn't blame the Twins for if they went completely over the top on an impact backup.

The Miami Marlins appear willing to listen to trade offers on Luis Arráez, despite a great 2023 season with the team. Is there any scenario wherein Arráez returns to Minnesota? Image courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports There probably isn’t a single team in MLB who would say they don’t need Luis Arraez, who slashed .354/.393/.469 in 2023. With two years of team control left, he might not cost quite what the Marlins gave up to acquire him last season, but his price remains high. Now that the Marlins appear willing to part with him, is there any scenario in which the Twins bring him back? When the Twins dealt Arráez last offseason, they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH, as his health had started to limit his range in the field. The Marlins thought of Arráez as at least a part-time second baseman, which is why they thought he was valuable enough to give up Pablo Lopez (plus two prospects) to acquire him. The Marlins followed through on their plan, but it didn’t pan out as expected. Arraez had a positive Defensive Runs Saved at second base, but his Outs Above Average showed the Twins were correct to be concerned about his declining range. He played a career-high 1,124 innings at second base in 2023 and posted -10 OAA. For reference, Edouard Julien put up -3 OAA in about half as many innings at the position. The Marlins have probably arrived at the same conclusion the Twins reached a year earlier, hoping an offer presents them with more value than moving Arráez to first base moving forward. The Twins and Arráez are an interesting fit at this point. Their low-contact, power-focused lineup makes him a solid complementary piece, as many fans pointed out while the strikeouts piled up in 2023. The Twins could certainly use help at first base, with Alex Kirilloff struggling against southpaws to start his career and having repeated injury concerns. Unfortunately, Arráez is another left-handed bat with platoon issues, and has plenty of health concerns of his own. It’s more likely that the Twins will look for a cheap, right-handed platoon bat to pair with Kirilloff, rather than pay what will still be a high price for Arráez in trade. In the wake of his second consecutive batting title, La Regadera is in line to make more than $11 million, which could be prohibitive given the Twins' payroll plans. Regarding the fit on the currently constructed roster, Arraez is tough to slot in regularly. The Twins, of course, have been known to get creative on the trade market in the past. A team could call up the Twins and coax them into parting with someone like Kirilloff, or even Kepler--the latter of which would solve the money problem for them. Catcher is a glaring weakness for the Marlins, with Nick Fortes penciled in to start and the utterly fungible Christian Bethancourt signed to be the backup. Might they take on Christian Vázquez, to help balance the money exchanged, if the Twins offered an impressive offensive player under long-term team control? Could Arráez fit into a framework in which the Twins acquire one of the Fish's available starting pitchers, like Jesús Luzardo or Edward Cabrera? As the season nears, Kiriloff's shoulder injury continues to give him trouble. As quiet as this winter has been, history says there could be some shakeups before Opening Day. A reunion with Luis Arraez is a fun idea, but in all likelihood, the Twins won’t see adding him back as a priority. Their most significant needs continue to be pitching, center field, and potentially a right-handed hitter, and they have no shortage of impact left-handed hitters in the lineup. It’s hard to resist one of the most unique hitters of this era of baseball if he’s available. Is there any fit for Luis Arraez on the current roster? Should the Twins pay the price to bring him back to Minnesota? Let us know below! View full article

Well for starters I'm sure they're aware of Clevinger not being the greatest clubhouse presence to have around. Aside from a lot of negative off field stories, I remember him giving up a game winning homer to Polanco in 2019 and immediately saying he must still be doing PEDs postgame. I also think there's a reason Clevinger is still out on the market. He had the lowest HR/FB rate of his career in 2023 and his strikeout rate keeps plummeting. I'm not saying he can't be a solid starter for somebody, but I'd guess the Twins are aiming for more upside, and I think Clevinger will cost a bit more than we expect based on some of the other SP deals that have been signed.

The Twins not shopping on the high end of free agent pitching also has nothing to do with the Twins cutting payroll. That's never been how they operate even as they were steadily increasing payroll the last few years. Just because they aren't giving Jordan Montgomery $150m doesn't mean they're getting worse, there's plenty of time left for them to add another pitcher. If you think it sucked to lose a few prospects in trade that didn't have spots here anyways, just imagine what would happen if they sign a 30+ year old pitcher to a long term deal that becomes an albatross.

Personally I don't see a scenario where Lewis is traded, and I think he's a tier up from Julien and Lee in terms of how the organization views them. Even for a front office that's willing to trade anyone whether they're a fan favorite, home grown talent, etc., I think there's an attachment there that will make it difficult. He was the first draft pick they ever made after taking over the job, and after a winding road to the MLB which led to him basically carrying the team to their first playoff win in almost 20 years last season, I just can't see it. I'm sure there's a price, but I don't see anyone meeting it. I think Lewis is too athletic to move him down the defensive spectrum to 1B. I think it's likelier that they'd move him to 2B if they're that intent on Lee playing 3B, but I suspect they won't mess with a good thing. Also of note, Lee's offense will probably profile better at 2B.

I think the general (public) consensus is that while Lee is playing exclusively SS in the minors, that's not where he'll wind up. Maybe the Twins think differently behind closed doors, but they did the same with Austin Martin all the way through the minors despite there never really being a chance for him to actually play there full time in his MLB career. I've seen Lee play SS in person a few times and personally I do think he could play a passable shortstop if they wanted him to. I don't think he'd be a plus defender there, though, and I think with Correa around he's left with either 3B or 2B. Add in Royce and I think he's left with 2B. Twins plans for him may change this conversation entirely, but just in my opinion, I could see Lee's offensive profile and defense being the best possible fit as a second baseman in the long run.

It's a fine line, because Kyle Farmer's role in the MLB at this point relies heavily on hitting LHP, and he did so to the tune of an almost .900 OPS last season. It's going to be extremely hard not to use him in those spots in high leverage if he's on your bench.

FWIW I believe Aaron Gleeman mentioned the Twins told Julien not to run out grounders with full effort at the end of the year. He had a pretty noticeable hamstring problem for the last two months or so.

I agree with the point that these good young hitters should get a chance to sink or swim against same handed pitching certainly. I think it needs to be looked at with a bit of nuance and on a case by case basis when it comes to pinch hitting. I think at times the Twins got carried away with their platooning when they were pulling players in the 2nd or 3rd inning to get that platoon matchup, only to not have an option to adjust back in the later innings when another pitching change was made. The opposite side of this argument is that there will be times in the late innings where everyone would agree that Kyle Farmer should pinch hit for Julien against Aroldis Chapman for example. There's plenty of space in between these two scenarios to get these guys at least some exposure which I believe is your point. I also think it's worth noting that the Twins may be more open to letting a lefty or two stay in the lineup against a southpaw if guys like Buxton and Correa are taking care of business. There were times last season where the lineup needed every percentage point of an advantage that they could possibly get

People have a lot of opinions on this one I guess! I remember an article of mine from way back in the day regarding the likelihood of the Twins non-tendering Eddie Rosario the following offseason that really blew up. Sometimes you get to writing about a topic and more people have strong thoughts on it than expected. It's fun to see people so involved with such little news to react to to be honest. The views on articles and where those views come from i.e. Facebook, Twitter, Google etc. are tracked privately. Not sure if there's a grand total on the amount of comments individual writers draw in!

It's all dependent on the market and many teams are on the same boat. Consider this though: The Twins last year traded Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and two prospects, extended Lopez for below market value, and then he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We can't count on that every time, but if they can make a similar deal for a pitcher they think they can improve, it's a much more effective route to take than doing something like bringing Sonny Gray back on the deal he got based on the healthiest and most effective season he's had since 2019. It all comes down to making the best addition and not necessarily how much money is being spent. A lot of times those two factors don't line up.

I think every team sees Polanco as a startable 2B with the ability to fill in at 3B and a bat worthy of DH on occasion, I just think we overrate how much that profile is worth in trade. I do think adding Festa or even ERod would significantly increase the return. Probably depends on the team and what they think of the other player.

FWIW, Ken Griffey Jr. was 11% below league average in his career vs LHP. Just something to keep in mind regarding the possibility that Julien is a legitimate impact hitter that will likely struggle vs LHP for his entire career to at least some degree.

And I didn't agree with Julien's platooning at all times last season either. The day he started at 2B against an opener and was pulled before he got an AB was downright ridiculous. I will say part of the reason they platooned him as aggressively as they did was because they had a bench with players like Solano and Farmer who gave them a significant upgrade in those matchups. Would it be better to let him take most of those at bats for his development's sake? Probably, but those bench players were on the team for those specific spots. The 48 PAs he had vs LHP may not be a strong enough sample size to say he needs to be platooned for the rest of his career, but he did struggle exceptionally in those spots, and it is a mark against him especially because that's typically the way those lefty on lefty matchups play out. I'm not saying ship him out because he may not hit lefties, but if they view Julien and Lee in a similar light, the switch hitter may have the tie breaker.

Strongly agree. He made a few horrible plays that really stick in our minds. He also made some incredible plays down the stretch at the end of the season, and became more reliable overall. The fact that the Twins have insisted on keeping him there should be enough for fans to trust that he's capable of playing an acceptable 2B.

Yup, and that's certainly a consideration as well, but the way they're already platooning Julien tells me they don't expect him to overcome that issue. It's also just a better bet to expect the guy capable of hitting right-handed to be able to develop vs LHP than the left-handed hitter. I'm just playing devil's advocate here and trying to consider how the FO might weigh things. I'll be forthcoming and say I would strongly prefer to keep Julien over Lee if one had to be traded. The success he's shown in the MLB is hard to beat.

I'm not saying he's doomed to be platooned forever, but his platoon split history is absolutely a consideration the front office will have and is a strike against him when comparing him to a switch hitter. FWIW I'd continue to play him against LHP whenever possible in 2025 and I believe he's still a game changer even if he has to occasionally take a day off with a lefty on the mound.

He also has an OPS of around .700 vs LHP in the minors between 2022 and 2023. It's not a knock on him, there are very few LHHs who hit LHP consistently well in baseball history. It's a consideration with Brooks Lee being a switch hitter.

For Lee or Julien it would absolutely have to be for a high end starter to part with them. I think we need to be realistic on Jorge Polanco's trade value. Eugenio Suarez was traded earlier this offseason for a backup catcher and lottery ticket minor league reliever. Suarez has a similar contract to Polanco with team control for 2024 and a team option in 2025 for $3m more. He was basically exactly as valuable as Polanco on a per game basis, except he played all 162 games in 2024, whereas Polanco's injury concerns continue to pop up and he only played in 80. I think Suarez is going to be the closest trade comp to Polanco we'll see this offseason in terms of an aging infielder with a 2025 team option, and the return he brought was miles away from anywhere close to a high end starting pitcher. It was basically a salary dump by Seattle, and they're likely a worse team for trading him.