Cody Pirkl

The Twins have an important part of their lineup on the comeback trail in Jorge Polanco. With Edouard Julien more than holding his own in Polanco’s absence, Byron Buxton should be the loser of playing time when Polanco returns. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports We’ve seen the Twins operate on a 1:1 replacement basis this season, sticking to the plan to a fault at times. Previously it was white-hot Matt Wallner sent down for a returning Max Kepler simply because Wallner was the replacement when Kepler hit the IL. In the case of Jorge Polanco, we saw this play out during his first IL trip with Edouard Julien, who took his place for a brief time, showed some flashes, and was sent back down when Polanco returned. Julien again took Polanco’s spot in the previous, more lengthy injury absence. This time, however, the Twins would be downright foolish to stick to their usual 1:1 trade-off when Polanco returns. Shipping a second baseman out for a returning second baseman makes sense, but Julien has emerged as one of the key cogs of an underwhelming Twins lineup. The left-hander has slashed .298/.373/.525 on the season, a batting line that places him 49% better than the league-average hitter. His eye at the plate and ability to ambush mistakes are welcome additions to the Twins lineup, and it’s hard to imagine what the offense would be without him at this point. So what can the Twins do? Unfortunately, at this point, the answer has become far too obvious that the best-case scenario for the Twins' chances of winning involves Byron Buxton losing in a significant way. The full-time DH is one of the worst offensive regulars in the lineup, a devastating development for the offense. There were some raising minor issues with Buxton’s change in approach last season making him boom-bust at the plate. This season Buxton has crossed the line where it’s impossible to argue that the bust has completely outweighed the boom. He appears to be completely guessing, taking pitches right down the middle while swinging at others that were never even close to the strike zone. It feels like the only positive potential outcome at this point when Buxton is hitting is for him to guess correctly and pull a ball in the air over the fence. His 31+% strikeout rate is his worst since 2016, and it’s easy to see the change in what he’s trying to do at the plate since 2021. Rest assured, it’s not paying off. This change in approach may be injury related. We should hope so, as such a change from the multi-dimensional approach Buxton showed in 2021 to what we see now would be an unjustifiable adjustment to make on purpose. At any rate, Byron Buxton is doing the Twins no favors. His wRC+ is approaching Michael A. Taylor who gets negative attention at times for his subpar offense. Unlike Taylor, Buxton is providing nothing defensively, and instead of settling into the nine spot, he’s disrupting the lineup with his constant hitless streaks and non-competitive at-bats coming in the three-hole. So what can the Twins do? If the Twins are willing to be real with themselves, the Buxton situation can’t continue the way it has. They’re a worse team with him in the lineup over several other options at the moment. When Jorge Polanco returns, they can go in a few different directions. They could send Wallner back down and greatly decrease Buxton’s playing time in favor of Edouard Julien filling the DH spot. Buxton can focus more on physical maintenance and get mental breaks while still cycling into the lineup here and there. The solution fans have discussed for some time is simply placing Buxton on the IL indefinitely. He may not like it, but there’s no way he’s not dealing with some kind of physical impairment worthy of an IL trip. This would open a roster spot for another player deserving of a shot, such as Matt Wallner or a bat acquired at the deadline. It may not fix anything with Buxton physically, but it at least allows him time to work on things and go on a lengthy rehab assignment to try to get things straightened out. It’s easy to say at this point that it would be a massive boost to the lineup to add Polanco while keeping Julien in Buxton’s stead. The Byron Buxton situation is officially untenable. Even the highs at this point last for a handful of days and are promptly followed by a week plus of absolutely nothing. The Twins quite simply have too many better options if this is the Byron Buxton they’re going to get. They can no longer ignore what they’re watching on a nightly basis, and his being under contract long-term can no longer trump his actual production when it comes to what spot in the order he hits and more importantly who he plays over. When Jorge Polanco returns, it should be at the expense of Byron Buxton, not Edouard Julien. Do you agree? View full article

It's a drop off but here's my thoughts regarding the regular season: If the offense turns it around, they run away with this division with or without Sonny Gray. They have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball remaining. If the offense doesn't turn it around, I think they're depending more on teams like Cleveland losing than they are on themselves winning, because as we've seen, the offense can be so bad with regularity that prime Randy Johnson could be taking the mound everyday and they're probably still going to hover around .500. I say go ahead and keep him, my only point is if he's legitimately considering retirement which would wipe out any QO value, just put out some feelers and see if a team is willing to do something silly. I think they have enough rotation depth that their playoff hopes don't sink or swim with Sonny Gray.

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

I'd expect the Twins to have more info regarding Gray's comments and a better feel for what he's actually thinking. That's kind of an advantage for them to plan around if that's the case.

FWIW they got a combined 10 IP and 1 ER from Maeda and Berrios in 2020 and still got swept out of the playoffs. Teams usually have 3 playoff starters, which the Twins would still have even without Gray imo.

Totally fair, and I wouldn't say I "want" to trade him. IF he seems serious about retiring, I'd just put feelers out and see if a team wants to do something crazy and offer a difference making return. I feel like either the offense comes around or it doesn't and if they do they win this division with or without Gray and still have 3 solid playoff caliber starters. If the offense doesn't come around it's probably still a coin flip, but if Gray seems open to playing next year then I'd still keep him and QO him because that's a lot of value in itself. Basically I just see a small path to trading him if he's serious about retiring.

The Twins are very much still in the AL Central fight, and under normal circumstances should be looking to add at the deadline. 2023 has been an odd season though, and shopping Sonny Gray given recent news makes sense. Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports The idea to trade Sonny Gray in 2023 does not come from the same thought process as the calls to trade Carlos Correa in 2022. At least not entirely. The Twins have reached a point of extenuating circumstances where they should at least be fielding calls on the All-Star right-hander, and it took a few steps to find themselves at this point. For starters, the Twins are not a playoff-caliber baseball team. The possibility of them accidentally finding themselves in the postseason is there, but what is that really worth? Typically the thought is that you just have to make it into the playoffs and anything can happen, but having watched this team thus far, it’s hard to argue that they’re capable of putting together a stretch of winning baseball for any period of time, let alone when it matters most against the highest level of competition. Not only would one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball history be facing the game’s best pitchers in October, but teams have the ability to bring in any left-handed pitcher on the roster and completely shut them down, as evidenced by the Twins' .218/.289/.365 slash line against southpaws. They’ve shown that for how good their pitching staff is with Sonny Gray and company, the offense is bad enough to cancel it out on a regular basis. The Twins season-high win streak is four games, a testament to the team’s ability to go on any kind of run to this point in the season. They’ve been unable to separate themselves from the worst division in baseball. The postseason is unpredictable, but what are the odds that this team can go on any sustained run across multiple series against the best teams in baseball? If this were the only argument, it would be worth keeping Sonny Gray, but Sonny has dropped some interesting quotes the last few days that should have the Twins really considering their next move. The plan all season has been very straightforward with Sonny Gray. A free agent after 2023, the Twins have the ability to extend him the qualifying offer of around $20 million. Recent free agent history is ripe with examples of similar pitchers getting strong enough multi-year deals to decline this offer, leaving their previous team with a high compensation draft pick. If Sonny were to sign elsewhere with the qualifying offer attached for at least $50 million, the Twins essentially get another first round pick in the 2024 draft. If he signs for less, they’d get a competitive balance pick at the end of the second round, a much easier value to beat in a trade return from a pitching-desperate contender at the deadline. For this reason, it can be argued that the value may skew towards a trade return rather than offering him the qualifying offer and having him potentially sign a one-year deal at best. If Gray won’t be pursuing the Chris Bassitt-type three-year, $60m deal next winter, the Twins should be weighing that value against what they could potentially get in trade. It’s not always best practice to make these types of decisions based solely on what is considered on paper value, but the Twins have put themselves in a position where they should consider it. In a vacuum, a contending team shouldn’t be parting with their All-Star starting pitcher in the middle of a playoff race. That being said, even with Sonny Gray, the Twins are a below .500 team whose playoff aspirations likely hinge more on their opponent's poor play in the second half than their own success. As they’ve crossed over the halfway point, their mediocre play is no longer a slump. They could make the playoffs even without Gray should the rest of the Central continue at their current pace. Should they make it to October, they still have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for a playoff series. It’s still a formidable rotation and admittedly would be an even better one with Gray. As we’ve seen though, if this is the brand of offense the Twins employ, the pitcher on any given day doesn’t matter unless we believe they’re riding shutouts all the way to a world series title. The Twins don’t need to go full-on fire sale. They’ve established enough pitching depth to continue to compete in the pillow fight that is the AL Central race without Sonny Gray if an offer blows them away. While the 2023 season is still up in the air, they should still have an eye on 2024 and beyond given what we’ve already learned about this team. In what should be a pitching-thin market, they could have an opportunity to get a difference-making return on a 33-year-old All-Star who may not be in the league next year, let alone with the Twins. Should they seize the opportunity? View full article

That is an interesting question. Larnach has been ahead of Wallner every step of the way, which is fair because he was "MLB ready" sooner. We've seen more than a full season's worth of ABs from Larnach now though (in segments at a time) and it hasn't been impressive. I personally don't care if he strikes out 30% of the time when he walks and uses the whole field the way he does. That being said, he can't slug .380 along with that plate approach, it just doesn't work. Wallner potentially has the bigger strikeout risk, but he's shown the same ability to walk and I have very little doubt that the ball is going to fly off the bat if he makes enough contact. Ideally both get run, but if you're trying to help the offense immediately, I'd see if Wallner can come up and make a big impact first.

Trevor Larnach is slashing .244/..327/.578 in games where he played right field. Really makes you think!

I think Kepler is the exception to the whole "not making moves out of stubbornness" thing. They've watched his value crater year after year after year while passing on opportunities to get value on him. They may not be legitimately thinking "we can't cut bait now because we'd look stupid", but they clearly have a blindspot to him. In regards to the money argument, we've reached a point where they just need to ask themselves whether they want to win or not. It's unfortunate that Gallo's $11m deal is looking worse and worse, but that's no reason to just ride out the storm for example. We've also reached a point regarding defense, Wallner or Larnach could be worse, etc. arguments have to go out the window. The Twins have been one of the worst teams in baseball since May and they can't even hold a lead in a division that doesn't include a single team above .500. It can always get worse, but it's already quite bad.

I'm the co president of the Max Kepler hater club and I agree, Gallo has probably put himself ahead. The tiebreaker for me is that it appears Gallo is no longer even an average defender.

Larnach and Wallner may very well not be the answer, though it's an easy case to make that both could easily be better than Kepler and Gallo. For as much hate as Larnach gets, he has .3 fWAR to Kepler's .4 in 50 less PAs, and .3 to Gallo's .5 in about 60 less. I was an unabashed Larnach believer to start the year which has receded, but I feel like the perception on him is incredibly low when he probably paces out around the same as Kepler or Gallo through the same amount of PAs, and it comes with the potential payoff of him finding something and being a regular on the team for years to come. Wallner is the reigning minor league hitter of the year and his main knocks are the strikeout rate and defense. He's lowered his K% significantly in Triple-A which is exactly what the Twins wanted him to do, and he'll almost certainly not strike out as much as Gallo. Gallo also hasn't been a good defender. At the end of the day, Gallo and Kepler have lowered the bar so far that it doesn't take much confidence to take a leap on a prospect replacing one of them in my opinion. I've seen people say it could be a disaster if they give these guys a chance and they aren't up to the task. If that's what a disaster looks like, what have we been watching so far this year, ya know?

They probably do believe that Larnach and Wallner aren't MLB worthy because at this point the only other explanation is that they don't want to admit they were wrong. The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong. I'd say we've reached a point in the season where the risk of these guys coming up and being worse are so low that it doesn't even matter. The Twins have one of the worst records in baseball dating back to May and two corner outfielders have been very bad while two top prospects rot in Triple-A. The absolute worst case scenario is they come up, perform a little worse than the incumbents, and the bad baseball team gets a little more bad while young players get experience for the future.

I agree that Buxton and Correa are the main issues but that doesn't give everyone else a pass. Twins offensive production in left field is 23% below league average and in right field is 9% below league average. Unlike center, those are offensive premium positions, and elite defense alone doesn't make a meaningful difference to make up for it. Taylor has been exactly what the Twins wanted and wouldn't be an issue if the players manning offense-first positions did their jobs. They can't get rid of Buxton or Correa, but they can get rid of a corner OF. Hell, there are eager replacements that could be around 5+ years after Gallo and Kepler are off the team. It's an easy lever to pull with little downside at this point.

It's been reported that Kepler has made it known to the Twins that his preference is not to play centerfield FWIW. If it were more of a question of whether he's still capable, I think it would be reported that way. I also can't imagine a scenario where the Twins just think his defense wouldn't be up to snuff there. Nick Gordon played there plenty before getting injured and Willi Castro still starts games there. I'd bet on both of those players being decidedly worse defensively than Max Kepler.

It’s time to make some personnel changes to try to shake up the lineup, and two obvious options exist to move on from. If the Twins finally decide to make some tangible changes, which left-handed corner outfielder should it be? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have two corner outfielders in Triple-A with nothing to prove. Trevor Larnach currently has a 140 wRC+ for St. Paul, and despite his struggles at the MLB level, the clock is ticking on the former 1st round pick. Matt Wallner may have passed him up, as his 132 wRC+ comes with a reduced strikeout rate and a recent red-hot stretch with the Twins. The argument has been made for quite some time that these young bats deserve a look over struggling veterans Max Kepler and Joey Gallo. The opposing view is that they could wind up being even worse. As the Twins have surpassed the halfway point of the season and Kepler and Gallo have tanked so significantly, that argument should now be off the table. They have almost nothing to lose by turning a lineup spot over to a potential piece of the future. Which struggling veteran should be let go? Joey Gallo Gallo has been versatile and looked like a great acquisition to begin the season. Unfortunately, since May 1, Gallo owns a .167/.281/.368 slash line with a 43.7% strikeout rate. He's still taking his walks at 13.7%, but the whiffs have become untenable in a Twins lineup that's on pace to break the MLB strikeout record. In addition, Gallo's days as a gold-glove-caliber defender are behind him at 29 years old. Being the massive athlete he is, age has led to a decline in sprint speed to below-average levels, and his cannon of an arm isn't put to use all that often in right field. In addition, he's had multiple soft tissue injuries leading to IL stints, making him unreliable to even remain on the field aside from his production when he is in the lineup. He looked fantastic defensively at first base at the beginning of the year, but Kirilloff's return has filled the left-handed first-base role, and first-base defense isn't a premium skill. Gallo's immense struggles make parting ways with him a bit more complicated, as although the Dodgers traded a Double-A pitcher for him at last season's deadline, his struggles persisting through a second season suggests that he could be in a full-on decline. Even a Double-A pitcher seems like a longshot trade return on Joey Gallo. Not being able to get a respectable return shouldn't keep him on the roster all season, but he is still capable of going on white-hot streaks of offensive damage, as we saw to begin the season. The Twins are likely considering that possibility as they ponder whether they want to gift him to another team for free. They could cut down on the strikeout problem by parting with Gallo, but do they want to risk missing out on the potential upside he showed to begin the season while likely paying the remainder of his $11m to not play for the Twins? Max Kepler Kepler was slashing .189/.261/.365 through June 18, when he went on a hot streak for four games, going 6-16 with three homers. He then went on an 0-11 stretch before heating up again, going 8-18 with two more homers. He finished the first half riding an 0-16 stretch into the break. Some say Kepler's two hot streaks may have saved his job, but that may give the Twins too much credit. Since the beginning of 2021, Kepler has been slashing .216/.306/.387, good for an OPS around .50 points below a league-average right fielder offensively. His defense has been great (though he's had some questionable play lately), but he's declined to be part of the solution in center field and is now a glove-first corner outfield option on a team struggling offensively. All of this was just as true coming into the season when the Twins declined trade offers for Kepler and dedicated $8.5m in payroll with several top prospects on their way that were deserving of the opportunity. The fact that the Twins may have been on the precipice of parting with Kepler before his hot stretch is likely wishful thinking, as it seems at this point that no level of offensive struggles will keep the Twins from admitting they made the wrong decision this winter. In terms of keeping Kepler over Gallo, he has the defensive prowess he appears to have lost. His game also has less swing-and-miss, another potential tiebreaker for the Twins' whiff-happy lineup. He's also shown more offensively than Gallo recently, even though it came in tiny spurts surrounded by more of the same of what we've seen the last few years from Kepler. Kepler also has a team option for 2024 attached to him, which can be viewed as either positive or negative. On the one hand, $10m would be a bargain if he can hit even league-average levels with his typical defense. That adds value if anyone believes Kepler can hold up that end of the deal. Conversely, teams won't pay for a league-average bat with two years of control. Given how long his offense has trended down, the asking price, even from last winter, will have dropped even further. The Twins may continue to overvalue him and not only hold onto him at the deadline but run it back in 2024 regardless of his output in hopes that Kepler somehow rebounds from three years of below-average production at age 31. It's now a well-known fact that nobody values Max Kepler as highly as the team he's burned repeatedly. It's almost always good to have options on a Major League roster. Unfortunately, the Twins have multiple options for which underperforming players can be jettisoned from the roster to try to create a spark. There's no shot it would happen, but there's an argument to be made that they should move on from both Gallo and Kepler. Operating under the assumption that there's one move to make, it likely comes down to Gallo vs. Kepler. Is there a wrong answer regarding who the Twins should move on from? Should they ride it out with both? Let us know below. View full article

The Twins bullpen is incredibly short currently with several injuries to key contributors. While it could hurt the team, it could create long-term opportunities. Could any of the stand-ins pitch themselves into a future role? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports At one point, the Twins had four pitchers in their bullpen who were essentially called up from St. Paul out of necessity. Brent Headrick was recently sent back upon Jorge Lopez’s return, and Josh Winder was replaced by Cole Sands who was activated from the IL. Three arms remain, and Thielbar and Brock Stewart are not quite on the verge of returning, there’s a short window for these guys to prove themselves. Jordan Balazovic Perhaps the likeliest candidate to find himself as a textbook reliever down the line, the Twins have already started the process of switching Balazovic to a traditional relief role It’s a bit disappointing, but this is the path many pitching prospects take. Balazovic was being used as a long reliever in St. Paul, and the hope is that his stuff plays up enough to legitimately help in the late innings rather than bouncing up and down to Triple-A after making bulk inning appearances. Balazovic’s stuff hasn’t shown through, as despite his sub 2.00 ERA, he’s not even struck out 15% of the hitters he’s faced. He has cut down on the walks significantly though, and his slider and changeup have drawn some whiffs. If he can harness the stuff that once made him a top starting pitching prospect, Balazovic could become a legitimate weapon in the bullpen down the stretch. Oliver Ortega Ortega was one of the Twins few waiver claims prior to the season and later passed through waivers and stuck around. Like Balazovic, the stuff hasn’t shown through in his brief MLB stint so far, but Ortega was dominant in St. Paul, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an over 30% K rate. He has a curveball and slider that each draw a whiff rate of at least 36% to pair with a fastball that’s been around 95 but has been in the upper 90s in previous seasons. It’s easy to see why the Twins took a flier, as even at 26 years of age, Ortega has all of the tools to become a valuable MLB reliever. Cole Sands Most people think of the two inning, five walks performance from Sands on May 13, but he’s been great otherwise. Sands was working on a change in arm angle and has looked dominant at times. In St. Paul, he’s struck out nearly 35% of batters faced and struck out over a batter per inning in the MLB. The walks haven’t been an issue aside from the one outing and he’s avoided the homer-happy concerns that have popped up last year. Sands has leaned into a split finger this season to pair with his plus breaking ball and fastball that has ticked up near 94 mph now that he’s fully transitioned to the bullpen. He should in theory have a pitch mix to attack hitters from both sides of the plate, and given his success in Triple-A, it may just be time to see what Cole Sands can do to help the Twins at nearly 26 years of age. The Twins lack of proven bullpen depth hasn’t hurt them as of yet, and hopefully the offense and starting pitching can continue to soften the blow of the injuries they’ve suffered. While they wait for some of their proven relievers to return, it doesn’t have to be all negative. There’s a chance one of these arms could come out on the other end of this as a semi-established option in the late innings. Do you agree? Does anyone stand out above the rest? Let us know below! View full article

There aren't numbers we can point to. These are Major League hitters, they have the ability to make their own decisions and they're the ones executing. I do believe the philosophy of the organization has something to do with the way the offense has struggled, but we can't know to what degree that's been a factor. If someone like Carlos Correa doesn't like what the hitting coaches are telling him, he's not going to get cut for choosing not to follow that plan.

Because not every middle of the order hitter is at the top of the leaderboards for grounding into double plays. There may be more middle of the order hitters on that leaderboard but that doesn't make it any less significant when a particular player is leading all of baseball in that category. That's just a small piece of info that alludes to how many rallies he's killed, and other examples of him not being clutch are referred to later.

I get the concept but he's 4 away from his career high in double plays halfway through the season... which he set last year. There's not really a point in painting this as a good thing when the overall numbers are so poor. If the context were that he's been producing overall and in the clutch but also happened to be leading the league in double plays it wouldn't be worth pointing out. That's the exact opposite of what's happening though.

People have different opinions!