Cody Pirkl

Jordan Balazovic had reached what the Twins hoped was rock bottom this spring after struggling in 2022 and getting a late start to 2023 due to an off-field injury. Since then he’s built himself back up. Does Balazovic deserve a promotion? Image courtesy of William Parmeter What does it take for a starting pitching prospect to torpedo off of global Top 100 prospect lists aside from injury? Jordan Balazovic showed us in 2022, when he spent his entire season in Triple-A St. Paul allowing 2.55 HR/9 innings, and finishing with a 7.39 ERA in just over 70 innings. It was quite the uphill battle to regain the lost prospect status, and that was before he suffered a broken jaw during an off-field altercation at the beginning of spring training, resulting in him being the first player sent out of Major League camp. Fortunately, since returning to the mound, Balazovic has shown that he has the talent to wipe away the past. The Twins appear to have changed their view on their 2016 fifth-round pick. He began the season as a traditional reliever and has since moved back to making scheduled starts for the Saints. The Twins remain consistent in saying that they look at Balazovic as more of a potential bullpen piece for the MLB roster this season despite his starter’s workload thus far. If that’s the case, Balazovic is nearing the point where he’s more than deserving of a look. It’s been a small sample thus far in 2023 for Balazovic, but it’s hard not to be impressed. In 18 2/3 innings, the 6’5 right-hander has posted a 33.8% K rate and a 2.89 ERA with matching peripherals. Most notably, he’s allowed just one homer after struggling with the long ball in 2022. His walks have been uncharacteristically high at 14.3%, but it’s the only real blemish on his otherwise dominant line to begin 2023. Balazovic is currently built up to around 70 pitches per outing and has been able to maintain his mid-to-high-90s velocity along the way. He has secondaries to face off against hitters on both sides of the plate between his slider and splitter, though it's worth noting that during his last outing hitters did a decidedly better job of staying on him in his fourth inning. It's possible he's just destined for a bullpen role at this point rather than starting. The Twins have been churning multiple bullpen spots to begin the season, and while the bullpen performance has been acceptable as a whole, they’ve had some relievers struggle mightily. Unfortunately, Jorge Alcala appears to be a husk of his pre-elbow injury self, as his velocity remains down 2+ mph, and he continues to allow a barrage of homers. Cole Sands had an opportunity to stake his claim to a bullpen role on Saturday and subsequently allowed five walks in mop-up duty. Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick likely need to maintain their Triple-A starting jobs at this point due to the injuries to the MLB rotation. Balazovic conveniently is on the 40-man roster already as well. There are a few ways the Twins could use Balazovic. He’s built up to fill a true bulk reliever role, but that spot has been rarely utilized so far this season and regardless of how well he pitches, it would remain a revolving door with whatever pitcher filling it being optioned immediately after each appearance. They also appear to be dead set on the struggling Jorge Alcala being a multi-inning reliever, and they’ve declined to send him right back to St. Paul following his outings so far. If they want to give him a chance to cement himself onto the big league roster, they could simply send Alcala down to see if he can right the ship while giving Balazovic a chance to snag that job. He wouldn’t be so stretched to fill multiple innings and can have a real opportunity to work his way up the bullpen hierarchy. Whatever the Twins decide for his role, Balazovic is at the doorstep of his Major League debut. His main competition if Sands or Alcala are optioned back to St. Paul is likely Ronny Henriquez fresh off a rehab assignment and Josh Winder who has been an absolute disaster since being moved to the bullpen. Having just thrown over 70 pitches Sunday, it may be a few days until Balazovic is available to throw again. When that day comes, should he get the call? View full article

Donovan Solano was a hired gun brought in to do a specific job. A bit over a month into the season, Solano hasn’t been as advertised. Could the Twins' platoon first baseman be in danger of losing his roster spot? Donovan Solano was a late addition to a Twins roster that has struggled against left-handed pitching for years. Being one of the most consistent hitters against lefties in the last few years, the hope was for Donnie Barrels to carry the short side of the platoon. At 36 years old, Sovano’s start to his Twins tenure may already be in danger of ending. Through his first 55 plate appearances, Solano slashed .314/.364/.392, good for 11% above the league average hitter. In 32 plate appearances since, he’s slashing .107/.219/.143. Hitters go through cold streaks, but on the season as a whole, Solano has a .667 OPS. More worrisome, Solano is slashing .240/.240/.360 against left-handed pitching. He’s failing to a tremendous degree at the main job he was brought in to do. Solano was also a plus defender in 2022 for Cincinnati at first base. After saving 5 runs defensively, he’s been worth -1 Defensive Run Saved in 2023 at first base, and another -1 at second. His fielding struggles have cost Twins pitchers at times this season to the extent that we may not see him at second base again, and even playing first has become anxiety-inducing. At his age, it’s possible Solano is simply at the end of the line. The Twins were able to bring him in for $2m in the spring because of this possibility, and because of the small price tag, they shouldn’t be inclined to give him months of a sample size to show that his start is simply a fluke. They’ve sometimes made a habit of sticking with players too long because of their veteran status, and they’ve paid dearly for it. With the small role Solano plays and the small amount of money committed, it’s not worth waiting months to compile enough evidence that Solano just doesn’t have it anymore. The Twins have no shortage of replacement options either. Though they don’t have another right-handed hitting first baseman, they don’t need one. Alex Kirilloff’s arrival has pushed Joey Gallo to the corner outfield, once again creating a surplus of left-handed hitting corner options between him, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon . The Twins could stick to Gallo and Kirilloff as the everyday first basemen and call up Kyle Garlick to play the short-side platoon role. Unlike Solano, Garlick’s performance against southpaws can be considered all but guaranteed as long as he can stay healthy. They could also use Solano’s 40-man spot to add a right-handed player with more versatility such as 27-year-old Michael Helman who’s been playing in St. Paul for a couple of weeks after returning from injury. Helman has played every outfield and infield position aside from first base so far in his brief time in Triple-A this season. Last year, between Wichita and St. Paul, he hit 20 homers and stole 40 bases, and sports a .273/.400/.606 line with 3 homers and 2 steals in his 9 games so far this year. Helman likely wouldn’t be a regular at some of the more demanding positions such as shortstop or center, but his ability to play there in a pinch as well as his competence all across the rest of the diamond would certainly be a plus. His clear ability to steal bases would also add an element to the Twins lineup that they have very little of. It’s unfortunate, but the Twins shouldn’t need to see much more from Solano to make a move. The offense is struggling mightily and is one of the worst in baseball against left-handed pitching, a job Solano was brought in to do. They have too many alternative options to let this go on for very long, as plan B or C is almost certain to be better than what they’ve gotten so far. Donovan Solano is running out of opportunity. It may even be too late. Do you agree? View full article

It's bad

In a vacuum it's a good fit depending on whether they plan to have Buxton ever move back to the outfield because like you said, probably don't want Eloy in the field. The wild card of that one is that since he isn't a rental it may take more than just low level prospects and those types of trades always get tricky in division. I'm sure the Twins don't want to aid the White Sox too much in their rebuild.

I've been a longstanding Christian Walker fan with the DBacks. He really impacts the ball and plays gold glove caliber 1B which can push Gallo to the outfield. Of course this would require a few things to happen, including Arizona to not be contenders and Kirilloff not working out or Buxton moving back to the OF.

Can guarantee the Twins don't feel the same way and it's not an either or. There are at least two other options in Triple-A they could try if Larnach continues to struggle.

The point those two are at in their careers are very different though and Larnach's lack of power spans his entire career to this point and there are options to replace him. I just fear the Twins don't give him much more leash.

I'm definitely in agreement on Larnach>Wallner. I think the likeliest scenario is that when Kirilloff's 10 days are up and Larnach is still doing what he's been doing, the decision simply becomes too easy. I'd hope if he gets sent down he could start driving the ball again, seems like he's just fighting everything off to keep his head above water right now. I think trading for a bat is definitely in the cards closer to the deadline. Too many inconsistent hitters across the lineup and bats usually don't cost too much.

I've been a Larnach believer the entire season, and while I think he is nearing a point where they have to send him down, I don't look at that as giving up on him. They have other options to try, and if he continues with what he's been doing I think it's a pretty straightforward assumption that Larnach gets optioned for Kirilloff when his 10 days are up. Unlike a lot of people, I have no issue with Larnach's approach, including the strikeouts that come with it. There just has to be a payoff. He can't pace out as a 12-15 HR hitter at the MLB level if he wants to be a regular, which is what he's done so far in his career. He's had the two injuries, yes, but he's healthy now and so far in 2023 he has yet to show any kind of meaningful power. The bottom line is guys with 30+% K rates and SLG%s in the .300s usually don't stick around very long. The walks are likely to dry up as pitchers realize they can just throw strikes and he won't punish them for it. If a trip to Triple-A could potentially get him driving the ball again, I don't think it'd be the worst thing.

I don't mean to come across as writing him off, I was a huge believer coming into the year and still think his plate approach makes him a potentially solid regular left fielder. I do think he needs to find a viable identity as a hitter and I'm not sure the Twins will let him do so in the major. If he wants to work counts and try to force the pitcher to make mistakes, it's going to result in some strikeouts, which is fine. There needs to be a payoff when those mistakes are made though and he's struggled to do that through his first 600 plate appearances in the majors. As I mentioned in the article, he has a power hitter's plate approach without the power so far in his career. Pairing his plate approach with a slugging % in the .300s leaves him contributing little on offense aside from walks. He isn't a threat on the bases so that's just not very helpful. If he keeps failing to drive the ball the league also likely reaches a point where they stop walking him because they'll just decide he's not capable of making them pay for throwing strikes. The Twins have enough options that it's very possible that they decide to give someone else a shot very soon.

The assumed power is off the charts, he hasn't really shown it at the big league level aside from an impressive homer here or there. At this point his expected numbers are actually better against changeups than fastballs. He's gotten quite a few fastballs the last few weeks and just fouls them off. Two things I wonder about with him is whether he's 1. Pulling back on the power to keep the K% around 30 rather than disastrous levels, and 2. Whether he's actually just going up looking to fight off everything in the zone to draw a walk. He never looks ready for any pitch of any type lately. He's gotten quite a few mistakes lately and often can't do much aside from foul them off.

Why is it a bad time for an article discussing how Larnach could be running out of time the night after he strikes out four times? He could get optioned for Matt Wallner before the Cleveland series and I wouldn't be shocked.

I agree. It's not a death sentence, but it's really odd to see velocity fall off so hard by the age of 22. Usually we see players build velocity up as they age into their 20s which I'm sure the Twins have tried clearly with little success. One concern regarding the velocity though is that I do believe there's a hard drop off at a certain point, and if he's going to drop all the way down to 88-89 by the 5th inning he'd be lucky to make it out of that inning let alone ever go further.

Varland has been the 2x Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Twins, his stuff numbers look significantly better, and he's had a traditional path through the minors as a starter whereas Headrick has only made 9 starts above A ball. That doesn't mean Varland will necessarily be better, but he's also been solid across 4 starts in the majors. My guess is the Twins give Varland the first chance.

Do you want Pagán or Morán pitching let's say in the 6th inning of a 2 run ball game? The Twins just went to Lopez and Duran in a 4 run game the other night. Maybe in that scenario against the Yankees they'd have done it the same regardless, but they'll probably continue doing things like that because they probably don't and shouldn't trust either of their traditional middle relievers to get 3 outs before they give up 4 runs.

A lot of discussions have been had this season about the long relief role in the Twins bullpen, but middle relief is becoming more of a topic as those they have in place continue to struggle. Who could step in and fill such a role? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have a strong top of the bullpen in Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar. They also have a surplus of long relievers they’ve cycled through to begin the season. The bullpen problems have mostly fallen into the low-leverage, middle-relief tier, which so far has been occupied by the ineffective duo of Emilio Pagán and Jovani Morán. It may be time for the Twins to get creative. The Twins have already begun searching for an internal addition for what it’s worth. Brock Stewart was called up Tuesday after 8+ innings and 17 strikeouts in Triple-A to begin the season. The 31-year-old former top prospect may not be the most exciting option based on his age and career thus far, but the recent performance gives hope that Stewart has made some changes and can carry them over to the big league level. However, the Twins should pivot to other options if it doesn't pan out. The depth of the aforementioned “long reliever” group in Triple-A is nice in theory, but one could argue that such depth for this role is a bit overkill. Cole Sands, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Brent Headrick are all on the 40-man roster and have been used at the big-league level thus far. Jose De Leon and Randy Dobnak remain as options who could be added if needed. Their performances aren’t as inspiring, but considering they’d be pitching almost exclusively in blowouts, it’s easy to argue it doesn’t much matter. Woods Richardson remains a legitimate starting pitching prospect, with Headrick and Sands less so. Rather than having five candidates for a role that may come in handy once per week, the Twins should be looking to transition one of these options into a traditional reliever. Focusing more on Headrick and Sands assuming Woods Richardson will continue taking the mound every fifth day, there’s reason to believe either one could come up and settle into a traditional middle innings role. The benefits of changing a bulk innings pitcher into a traditional reliever have been covered plenty at this point. The velo ticks up, and they can throw their best pitches more often. Brent Headrick is averaging around 92 mph on the fastball in his debut season, and he grades out tremendously in command with a usable changeup to equalize his left-handedness against right-handed hitters. He’s a prime candidate to be one of the many fringe starting pitching prospects who move to the bullpen and flourish as we’ve seen in recent years. Sands has been an option for a similar move for a year-plus now because of his wicked breaking ball. He hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021, and it may be time to crack the door open to a consistent big-league job and see if he can kick it in. They could also pivot on Josh Winder, who’s on the rehab trail in St. Paul, though he’s also filled a multi-inning role in four of his five outings thus far. His inability to hold up to a starters' workload could be solved by putting him into a traditional reliever role given his issues with the fastball and impressive slider. The Twins have no shortage of options, and it’s becoming untenable to maintain such long relief depth to cycle guys in and out of a role at the MLB level that’s so unplanned and rarely utilized. Especially when it’s become clear that there are little to no situations in which the Twins have a lead where Emilio Pagán and Jovani Morán can be trusted to get even three outs. Hopefully, Brock Stewart’s minor league stuff translates, but the Twins should be working on a backup option now in case it doesn’t. Worst case scenario, Stewart grabs the job and runs with it, and another option establishes themselves in Triple-A in case they’re needed. They have more than enough long relief depth with not many answers in middle relief. Is it time to start actively seeking out more internal relief options? View full article