Cody Pirkl

The offseason has gone far differently than fans or likely the Twins had hoped. After missing on Correa and many of the impact free agents, options are dwindling. One option that simply cannot be considered is rebuilding. Image courtesy of Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports Reports are starting to surface about the possible path of the Twins taking a “step back” in 2023, with players such as Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda starting to draw trade interest. Who could blame teams for asking? It sure appears the Twins had all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket, as just two of the top fifteen free agents remained at the time the Twins got news that their star shortstop had chosen to move to San Francisco. The twins are left with a strikingly similar roster to their 2022 squad that finished in 3rd place of the soft AL Central, minus their most valuable player of course. Even if they turn to Joey Gallo and trade Max Kepler, it's hard to count on the trade off adding much value unless Gallo rebounds in a major way. With the cost of free agent pitchers and the Twins having three starters set to depart after 2023 in Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, it may become tempting as teams begin offering impressive packages to pry them away. It's easy to look at investments in a new catcher and outfielder and see the intent to compete now, but a lack of further success in acquiring players and some tempting trade offers being dangled could definitely sway a team that still looks to be on the bubble. Unless the Twins have plans to replace one of these arms after trading them, this simply cannot be a solution. Since the end of the 2010 season, the Twins have made the playoffs three times, being swept out on each occasion. They’ve been above .500 four times in those twelve seasons, including a six-year stretch from 2011 to 2016 in which the team was completely irrelevant. Since winning back-to-back AL Central division titles and appearing to be building steam as an up and coming core in 2019 and 2020, they’ve missed the playoffs twice, including in the inaugural expanded playoff season in 2022. In short, it sure looks a whole lot like Twins fans have spent the majority of the last twelve years in misery. Their only payoff is back-to-back division titles resulting in an immediate exit from the playoffs. Is that the business model the Twins want to present to their fanbase by entering yet another rebuild? The Twins were already publicly disappointed by fan attendance in 2022. It’s safe to imagine those issues accelerating greatly with any steps back in attempting to compete. They also have a TV network negotiation on the horizon, a transaction the Twins will have little leverage in as the viewership numbers almost certainly crater. From a pure baseball perspective, the Twins are in the easiest division in baseball with two more teams being admitted to the playoffs in the AL moving forward. They have one of the better rotations on paper that they’ve had in recent years. They still have star power and core contributors such as Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez on the position player side. With just a handful of acquisitions, the Twins could take the projected 78-81 wins they already have currently and easily become competitors. Having spent very little of the assumed $50m or so they had available coming into the offseason, deciding to take the easy way out would be a devastating decision for all parties involved. The prospect of the Twins actually going this route sounds ridiculous, but you can imagine a situation where they can justify it to themselves. The front office wouldn’t go this route unless they had no concern about losing their jobs. It was very heavily expressed at the end of 2022 that ownership still had faith in Falvey and company. They’ve always operated with an eye on getting value, oftentimes at the expense of acquiring players that actually make the team better. With the way free agent contracts have blown up on pitchers, this may be the most valuable time in history to trade pitchers such as Gray and Mahle who are only controlled for one year. There could be a scenario where they look at the dwindling free agent market and the likely inflated trade offers they receive and decide to once again side with value over acquiring quality players. At this point, improving this team is going to hurt and likely draw scrutiny. The majority of impact will have to come from trade at the cost of organizational talent, a disappointing outcome considering the amount of money they should have had to spend on free agents. They did this to themselves though, and the alternative is simply unacceptable in regards to Twins fans who have spent far too much time and money watching a mediocre product. In 2023, a step back simply isn’t an acceptable conclusion. View full article

The last two seasons haven’t gone the way we’d hoped for the Twins. With the offseason continuing to unfold, many questions remain unanswered. The Twins could find themselves leaning heavily on breakout candidates in 2023. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Even if Carlos Correa returns, the Twins roster will not be a geared up contender for the AL Central. Hopefully multiple acquisitions are made, but the Twins will also be relying on several players to break out. Luckily in the case of the Twins, there are plenty of candidates. Trevor Larnach Larnach now has two seasons of flashing white hot stretches at the plate followed up by extreme lows. His most recent run in 2022 began with a slash line of .299/.375/.515 through the end of May, only to finish with a .429 OPS in June. Larnach suffered a core muscle injury that eventually resulted in his season ending. Did said injury knock him off of his peak, or did pitchers adjust to his approach as they did in 2021? Larnach became a certified asset in the corner outfield because of his arm and should provide a safe floor in terms of value due to that defensive ability. The question is whether he can consistently contribute at the plate. While expecting him to be 50% above league average offensively as he was for a stretch in 2022 is too much, those two months show the talent he has hidden away somewhere. His knowledge of the strike zone and ability to punish mistakes could lead to his emergence as a legitimate middle of the order bat. Even that outcome would give the Twins lineup an entirely different look. Griffin Jax Perhaps the crown jewels of the Twins pitching pipeline at this time are of course Jhoan Duran and the underrated Griffin Jax. In the latter’s case, it is a story of great success. After failing to hold up as a started, Jax switched to the bullpen and quietly posted a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 IP in 2022. Striking out around 27% of hitters, Jax was a great setup man in a pinch. For a portion of the season he was likely the Twins second best reliever. So how could he break out and become even better? It appears for starters that Jax is working on adding velocity, never a bad idea! His wipeout slider wasn’t enough to keep hitters off his fastball which allowed a .530 SLG in 2022 so perhaps some added velocity could help. Jax also sneakily had a very effective changeup which he used around 14% of the time. Perhaps in just his second season as a reliever he can add some velocity and use his changeup as an equalizer for lefties a bit more. Given the baseline he showed in 2022, doing so could make him a devastating weapon at the back end of games. Alex Kirilloff Unfortunately at this point Kirilloff’s breakout feels like a pipedream due to his inability to remain on the field. The talented former #15 overall pick has been dealing with wrist issues for years. Following multiple surgeries, the most recent of which can be considered experimental, it’s hard to rely on Kirilloff for any kind of value moving forward. That being said, he displayed his pure hitting skills throughout the minors and flashed them in the MLB during the short stints he’s been healthy. While it’s hard to find sustained success in his brief career, it’s easy to forget that he was considered the best pure hitter in the Twins system not that long ago, regularly dominating the minor leagues. Fans may be tired of waiting, but the Twins drafted Kirilloff out of high school six years ago. If he can take the field in the spring, the Twins will give him every opportunity to succeed, as they should. We’ve rarely seen Kirilloff take the field while healthy, but at just 25 years old it’s not time to give up on him just yet. Long projected to be a cornerstone of the lineup, health is the main question that Kirilloff looks to answer in 2023. If that wrist allows him to swing the bat, don’t be surprised to see the former first rounder as one of the Twins most consistent hitters. Does anyone on this list stand out above the others? Is there a major breakout candidate not listed here? Let us know below! View full article

I'd love to see them bring in Kenley Jansen or someone like that, that'd be a super fun addition. They've just never shown an interest in spending money that way. Maybe after their process has derailed the last two seasons they're willing to change it up, but I wouldn't expect it until we actually see them pull off a signing like that.

Normally I'd agree but I think we've seen that the alternative to going to the young, unproven upside arm is likely the Twins signing a Steve Cishek or Hunter Strickland level reliever and letting them stick on the roster with a 5 ERA until August just because they're a veteran. If you want to argue for a competition between Henriquez and say Josh Winder in the spring, sure. I just think that if they bring in an external option for the bullpen it'll be someone who shouldn't be signed by a competing team and winds up retiring after one last awful season in a Twins uniform circa Joe Smith. They don't meaningfully invest in the bullpen which is fine but if they're looking to fill out the fringes, Henriquez is a better candidate than whatever 35 year old is still a free agent in February.

By the time Ronny Henriquez debuted in 2022 many fans were likely already tuned out, which is fair. His late season appearance however shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to the role he could play in 2023. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Ronny Henriquez was acquired in the Mitch Garver deal and was seen as a middling starting pitching prospect. The ERA results weren’t there, but at 21 years old, Henriquez posted a 25%+ K rate at every stop in the minors. His generous listing at 5’10 raised questions about his ability to stand up to a starter’s workload, and those concerns escalated when he posted a near 6 ERA in AAA out of St. Paul’s rotation in 14 starts. His strikeouts continued to impress however, and he was finally moved to a relief role toward the end of the season. As the Twins faded out of contention, they finally began cycling in younger talent instead of pitchers such as Joe Smith and Tyler Thornburg. In the case of Henriquez, what we saw was very encouraging. As we’ve seen with Twins pitchers who boast plus sliders, the Twins weren’t shy about having Henriquez go back to the well on his best pitch. He threw his breaking ball nearly 50% of the time as his primary pitch, and in his short stint it proved to be lethal. Despite being by far his most used pitch, the slider induced a whiff rate of over 31%. Not only did it avoid being hit, it allowed a .136 batting average and .227 slugging % when hitters did make contact. His secondary pitch being the changeup only drew a 22.6% whiff rate, but it too allowed a sub .200 average and sub .300 slugging % against as well. Henriquez flashed two plus offerings to get both left and right handed hitters out consistently. The issue with Henriquez was the fastball. His main concern in St. Paul was the long ball, and the culprit was front and center when he joined the Twins. In his admittedly limited action, his four seam allowed a .400 batting average and staggering 1.400 slugging percentage. Hitters teed off on the pitch, and it’s not difficult to see why: The good news on the rocky debut of his fastball is that the adjustment is obvious and likely easily fixed: Keep it out of the heart of the zone. The heat map at the top of the zone is fantastic. Adjusting the trend in the middle of the zone could raise his game to new levels in a bullpen role. Henriquez shouldn’t be an offspeed needy, fastball avoidant pitcher. The 55 scouting grade on his heater is easily justified, as the pitch has been noted to have tremendous ride and can often be pushed into the upper 90s when needed. While the slider was the eye popping weapon he showed in his debut, it’s possible the fastball could become just as big of a pitch moving forward despite how bad it looked through his first 11+ innings. Even pushing the pitch to average would make Henriquez a legitimate bullpen piece. Despite being just 22 years old, it can be argued that Henriquez’s days in the minors should be over. With his three-pitch mix one could argue Henriquez should still be working toward a future rotation spot. The issue is that Henriquez is currently on the 40-man roster and would likely be 7th on the starting pitching depth chart at best. He’d have to have a good bit of success in AAA before being entrusted in such a role with the big league club. Much like what’s been argued with fellow top prospect Matt Canterino, it seems like a waste of time to slow cook prospects who appear to be able to help the club right now in pursuit of the very small chance that they can latch on as a starter. It’s not entirely clear what the Twins offseason plan is regarding the bullpen, but we can assume nothing big is coming. At most they’ll likely sign a Joe Smith caliber pitcher to fill some innings and try to milk some value out of. They may make a waiver claim on a pitcher who does one thing well in pursuit of the next Matt Wisler. Instead we should be hoping for the Twins to turn to one of their young upside arms, a commodity that has been very difficult for this front office to come by. Rather than spending a few million on another veteran reliever to spend the last year of their career in Minnesota, why not turn to the 22 year old with two plus offspeed pitches and a high 90s fastball? Henriquez could take a low leverage, possibly even multi inning role and get a chance to work his way up the depth chart. If he struggles he can be optioned for another arm as opposed to the yearly bounce back candidate signing that sticks on the roster far too long due to their veteran status. Last year the Twins may have leaned too heavily on their internal pitching production. This year they have much more in place, and gambling on Henriquez in a minor role seems like a worthwhile bet. Ronny Henriquez should be in the Twins Opening Day bullpen View full article

Every offseason seems to have the same blueprint in Twins Territory: find some pitching. While far from well off on arms, for once it can be argued that the Twins should be a bit more worried about the lineup. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Talks of coaxing a high end starting pitcher to Minnesota are swirling as should always be the case when premier pitching is available, but the Twins don’t have an entire rotation to overhaul as they have in recent years. Adding an ace to the group of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober would be a massively positive move, but with a fair amount of pitching talent and depth in Minnesota, perhaps we should be turning more attention towards getting lineup help. As things stand, Carlos Correa is not currently a Minnesota Twin. Though inept in clutch spots for much of the season, a massive chunk of the Twins offense will be missing should Correa find another home. The Twins set a floor at shortstop with a savvy addition of Kyle Farmer, but the dropoff from a player who was 40% above league average offensively to one that was 9% below in Farmer would be felt on a daily basis. Farmer being the Opening Day shortstop would be far from a disaster, but in order to compete, the Twins would need to massively supplement their position player group elsewhere. Headed into 2023, the Twins have a fun group of young, high upside hitters that have some questions to answer including Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and eventually Royce Lewis. It’s a similar position to the one they were in last winter with the pitching staff. Having filled out 40% of the rotation with Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer and another 40% of the rotation with two rookies in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, the Twins gambled on contributions from their young pitching which had proven nothing yet. It was an unmitigated disaster aside from Ryan. Top prospects such as Jordan Balazovic cratered in AAA. Josh Winder was ineffective and had recurring shoulder issues. Having done so in just about every season of his career aside from 2021, Bailey Ober once again missed massive amounts of time. They didn’t have the floor they thought they did. The Twins need to avoid gambling on their player development in 2023 as much as possible. They’ve drastically overestimated their ability to produce quality regulars in recent years. And while the most recent bursted bubble was on the pitching side, gambling on unproven, often injured players such as Larnach, Kirilloff, and Lewis to keep an MLB roster afloat simply cannot be the game plan at this point. They also had to trade away several up-and-coming possible impact hitters as a result of their recent miscalculations. Also consider the health of the team. Beyond the young players having missed time in 2022, players such as Jorge Polanco no longer appear to be locks to play 150+ games. Byron Buxton’s injury risk will always be a consideration. They also no longer have Gio Urshela to add production to the fringes of the roster, and unfortunately at this point anyone expecting any kind of offensive competence from players like Max Kepler are likely going to be very disappointed. In short, the Twins lineup isn't a force to be reckoned with. It does appear to have some upside and depth, but the trick is getting said lineup to the threshold of “quality” which likely requires multiple more additions. Perhaps it is adding Correa or one of his fellow free agents such as Xander Boegarts . The heavily left-handed outfield could also use another right-handed option such as Mitch Haniger. Perhaps they’ve even liked what they’ve seen from Jose Abreu across the division enough to bring him in as a veteran RBI machine that can DH and cycle into first base. While several creative moves are certainly on tap for the winter, it may be time to recognize that the current rotation has the possibility of helping a team to a playoff run. It’s hard to say the same about the position player group. For once perhaps fans should pivot off of the “Can he pitch?” replies to every acquisition the Twins make. It’s time to worry about the bats. View full article

While far from a major problem, the Twins could use a shake up in the outfield headed into 2023. Could a journeyman on the Brewers be the answer? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are full of talent in the outfield but are a bit left-handed heavy. It’s also begun to feel like long-time Twin Max Kepler’s time is running out in Minnesota. Effectively swapping him out for a right-handed platoon option seems like a relatively small move that could pay off big time for a Twins roster which is fighting for a return to relevance. Hunter Renfroe has never been a big name in his seven seasons but has been nothing less than a solid player for some time now. In 2022 he had a career season, slashing .255/.315/.492 in Milwaukee. Having already bounced between four teams in his seven years, could yet another trade help return the Twins to the promised land? Complementing the Corners Between Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner, the Twins outfield is overly left-handed, and we’ve seen teams abuse that late in games the last few seasons. Only Byron Buxton and the recently re-signed Kyle Garlick balance things out, and recently neither has been reliable in terms of their availability. Renfroe would not only be a welcome addition in terms of production (.258/.350/.492 vs LHP in 2022), but in terms of reliability. The aforementioned Buxton and Garlick combined to play just 158 games in 2022. Renfroe played in 125 even being used in somewhat of a platoon role in Milwaukee. While Garlick in particular fills the “lefty masher” role, he’s been an easy out in his career against right-handed pitching and has been healthy enough to play in just 102 games for the Twins the last two seasons. Renfroe on the other hand was 20% above league average against same-handed pitching in 2022 while still filling the same role Garlick does, with an injury history that suggests he’d be more available on a day-to-day basis moving forward. While Garlick and the Twins recently agreed on a contract for 2023, the amount is miniscule, and if they could swing a trade Renfroe, being an upgrade over Garlick is an easy argument to make. The Twins would be well positioned with a lefty masher who’s capable against righties and can fill in at either corner to complement their many left-handed options. It seems like a win-win. Change is Coming Though nothing is definitive at this time, there’s been some talk of Kepler’s time in Minnesota coming to an end. Filling his spot with someone like Renfroe makes too much sense. Nearing 30 years of age, we know what Max Kepler is. While capable of providing gold glove caliber defense, it’s safe to say this value is outweighed by his extremely limited offensive profile. Long understood to be an incapable hitter against left-handed pitching, Kepler has recently failed to post even league average offense against righties. Too often, his at-bat results in pulling a ball either straight into the ground to second or first base, or popping out to shallow right field. He has failed to adjust his approach at all, and is no longer even a league average hitter. Yet he’ll continue to start day after day due to his defense. A pivot to Renfroe adds so many dimensions to a Twins' lineup in need of a breath of fresh air. In addition to Renfroe’s superior bat, he was also worth six Defensive Runs Saved in left field and two in right field. A slight defensive downgrade is possible, but that step down will be far outweighed by the need Renfroe would fill in the Twins lineup. In terms of financial cost, the trade off also is not that restrictive. After making a bit under $8m in 2022, Renfroe will likely be due $10ish million in 2023. Assuming the Twins can find a home for Kepler’s $8.5m salary, it won’t cost them much. It’s also possible they could get creative and include a player such as Gio Urshela in a trade to the third base needy Brewers in a deal for Renfroe, which would unload even more money. With the Twins having high free agent aspirations at positions such as shortstop, the trade market may be the place to look for offensive help. With Teoscar Hernandez recently being traded for a 28-year-old reliever and a minor leaguer, a Renfroe trade continues to look more and more affordable. The Twins should be looking to shake up the outfield with a more diverse set of players. Renfroe may just be the answer. Do you agree? View full article

The Twins need bullpen help and could certainly use another left hander to mix and match with late in games. Luckily an old friend is looking for a home this winter. Is a reunion with Taylor Rogers in the cards? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have mostly neglected the bullpen in years past and it’s more often than not blown up in their faces. The few additions they typically make are what many consider “bargain bin” pitchers, typically coming off of rough seasons in search of a bounce back. By targeting Taylor Rogers, they can stick to the strategy we’ve seen them use time and time again, though this time the payoff could be much better. Rogers is coming off of a rough season by his standards. In 64 innings he posted a 4.76 ERA. His strikeout rate remained strong at 30.7%, still in the 10th percentile in all of baseball. His walks ticked up slightly as did his homers, though neither to a worrisome degree. While his peripherals were higher than usual, they were far from disastrous (3.32 FIP, 3.26 xFIP). His season was marred by untimely meltdowns, blowing 10 saves between San Diego and Milwaukee. Is there hope Rogers could rebound in his age-32 season? As noted, Rogers was still able to strike out hitters at an impressive clip, and while his average fastball was down over a full tick from 2021, his average of 94.3 mph isn’t far off from his career norm. There isn’t much to suggest that he’s entered the decline of his career quite yet aside from his unsightly ERA. One little talked about factor of Rogers's season is that it appeared San Diego changed the shape of his slider. The pitch was three mph slower than it was in 2021 and had 40.4 inches of drop as opposed to 35.7 in 2021. Instead of the hard breaker we’d grown accustomed to seeing, Rogers was throwing more of a looping breaking ball. While the results didn’t show up on the slider, it was likely easier to differentiate between his out-pitch and his sinker. His slider’s underlying success was about the same, but his fastball produced the worst underlying numbers of his career. It seems like this would be an easy fix for Rogers to make. With the rest of his stuff appearing to be intact, Rogers could be due for a huge bounce-back. At the very least his underlying numbers as is suggest he massively underperformed in 2022. Rogers also had an absurd 16 saves through May 21, as a questionable Padres bullpen leaned on him heavily to begin the season before he began to unravel. We saw a decline in performance from the left-hander in Minnesota during several seasons when Rogers was ridden particularly hard. The Padres may have simply bent him until he broke early in the year, especially given the fact that he was coming off of a finger injury. A Twins bullpen consisting of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Lopez, etc. is a far cry from the bullpens of Twins past or the Padres early 2022 bullpen in which Rogers was the go-to guy for every situation. With more options, the Twins would be able to avoid any kind of burnout Rogers has suffered from in the past. In regards to the fit, the Twins could greatly use another left-handed option even as Caleb Thielbar has become a certified dude. Having two left-handed options who can also get righties out at a respectable clip would add an entirely new dimension to the Twins bullpen. We often saw Thielbar pitching in late situations regardless of matchup in 2022 when other arms were missing or struggling, leaving the Twins without another effective lefty if a matchup opportunity arose. Rogers would be an easy and familiar fix. Let's be honest. The Twins aren’t going to all of a sudden pony up and sign a legit back end of the bullpen reliever. It’s not in their DNA. There’s a lengthy list of their typical candidates they’ll probably be plucking a few names from in hopes that one of their bounce-back projects finally works out. Instead of hitching their wagon to an Ian Kennedy or Archie Bradley, why not reach out to a familiar face with tangible signs of a rebound in their profile? Not to mention the fact that it would be a homecoming for a homegrown player who was just recently a fan favorite. Taylor Rogers checks a lot of boxes that the Twins are looking for, and a reunion just seems like it would make too much sense. Should we be hoping to see the former anchor of the Twins bullpen added back to a new look core at the back end of games in 2023? Let us know below. View full article

Ryan Jeffers hasn’t inspired confidence in being the catcher of the future for many reasons, but now a question has been raised that’s out of his control: Should the Twins be making an effort to line up his replacement this offseason? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The catcher position is incredibly demanding, which is why we commonly see either a gold glove caliber defender with no offense or a relatively great hitting catcher who struggles defensively. It’s hard to do both. Ryan Jeffers has leaned more towards the former so far in his career, as his bat hasn’t played for more than short flashes at a time. With changes to how the game of baseball is played, however, could Jeffers’ carrying tool become obsolete? Jeffers has flashed some thump in his bat so far throughout his career, though never consistently at the MLB level. He also hasn’t made enough contact or reached base at a high enough clip to be considered an offensive contributor as shown in his .210/.285/.390 line in 591 plate appearances thus far. Instead Jeffers makes his impact with his defense, though not in a traditional sense. Jeffers has only caught 24% of baserunners trying to steal in his career. Though not all blame can be assigned to the catcher in such a measure, it’s safe to say catching baserunners isn’t Jeffers’ specialty. Instead his defensive reputation comes from stealing strikes on borderline pitches, and we’ve seen plenty of examples of him doing so in his three years. Jeffers has been in the 60th percentile or better for framing in every year of his career so far. Stealing strikes is his #1 skill, and he does it well. Converting a first-pitch ball into a strike for example can lower an opposing hitters’ OPS from .916 in a 1-0 count to .827. Or from .842 to .382 going from a 1-1 count to 0-2. There’s no doubt that Jeffers' pitch framing has helped Twins pitchers when he’s been on the field. The issue however is that the robo-umpire idea doesn’t appear to be a question of if, but rather when. No longer will catchers be able to stage pitches to sway umpires, as they’ll be measured objectively. The timeline of when we’ll see the electronic strike zone debut is unclear, but for the current version of Ryan Jeffers, this is very bad news. It’s possible that Jeffers has more development to make. He has missed his fair share of time with injury. But for the Twins, who lack another catcher even within their top 30 prospects, this should create some worry for the future. We appear to be on the fence regarding whether Jeffers can be “the guy” behind the plate for future Twins teams, but taking away his biggest strength would answer the question for us. The Twins need a long-term backup plan. There are several routes the Twins can go. Signing free agent Willson Contreras is undoubtedly the most fun scenario. Going from Jeffers to the electric former Cubs backstop who seemingly does it all would no doubt be an upgrade. Contreras however will likely require a massive deal after hitting free agency at 30 following a season in which he posted an incredible 132 wRC+ at the plate. Such a deal wouldn’t be the Twins' style and they have needs elsewhere. The rest of free agency doesn’t inspire much confidence in the long term. The Twins could also make a concerted effort to address the position in the draft. The bright side of their disappointing season in 2022 is the higher draft pick they hold. They haven’t drafted a first-round catcher since Joe Mauer in 2001 and of course the talent has to be worth the pick. If a catcher isn’t available that’s worthy of a 1st round selection, consider for example that Mitch Garver was drafted in the 9th round because of defensive concerns. They could beat the rush and target bat first catchers now rather than waiting until receiving and framing are no longer considered skills. The Twins love their “market inefficiencies” and they can take advantage of one that won’t be around much longer during the 2023 draft. Independent of the upcoming strike zone changes, Jeffers had enough question marks. The Twins have been fortunate in recent history with catchers such as Garver breaking through after not carrying a high prospect pedigree. It’s time to shore up the future with a lacking pipeline of catchers. This is the offseason for the Twins to set themselves up for a possible future without Ryan Jeffers View full article

Joe Ryan had as good of a season as we could have reasonably asked for, but it somehow feels like he left some meat on the bones. Is it possible that one of the Twins most consistent pitchers has another step they can take in 2023? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports The Rays were likely willing to part with Joe Ryan because of his pitch mix concerns, as he dominated every stop in the minors by using a unique fastball almost exclusively. The pitch was deceptive and unhittable, as his low arm slot made it hard for hitters to anticipate where the ball is going to end up. No fastball is good enough to sustainably dominate the majors, however, and Ryan is set to work on diversifying his pitch mix in 2022. He threw his fastball 60% of the time in 2022, down about 5% from 2021 as he began mixing sliders 20% of the time while also throwing an occasional changeup or curveball. His final line of a 3.55 ERA across 147 innings points to this pitch mix change being a massive success, although there is some context to consider. Ryan had a few months that prevented him from putting up some eye-popping numbers in his rookie season. In June, he posted a 5.74 ERA, followed by a 5.06 mark in July and a 4.13 in August. At the time the explanation was the difficulties he was having returning from COVID, which likely did carry some weight. Still, almost every bit of failure Ryan had in 2022 stemmed from his offspeed offerings. Ryan’s slider allowed a .245/.330/.497 line, his changeup .277/.492/.355, and his curveball .286/.333/.393. For comparison sake, his fastball allowed a .145/.263/.300 mark. It seemed like every home run he allowed was on an offspeed pitch. After plenty of scouting reports saying Ryan was a reliever because of his pitch mix, the floor that many worried about showed itself for several months. Even with his solid final numbers, the questions that were raised about Joe Ryan being able to navigate top-tier lineups remain. Moving forward there’s reason to be optimistic. The biggest issue of Ryan’s game is clearly the success of his offspeed pitches, and the final numbers on them certainly validate those concerns. Ryan got incredibly unlucky according to his expected numbers for the entire season. His slider accounted for 40% of the home runs he gave up despite throwing it just 40% of the time. The pitch allowed a .245 BA but had a .221 expected batting average. While getting clubbed to the tune of a .497 SLG, the pitch had an expected SLG of just .354, an even better mark than his highly touted fastball. This is true of both his changeup and curve as well, as all of his secondaries' actual numbers were on the wrong side of the expected stats. This is no call to reward Ryan for what Statcast says his pitches “should” be. There are a lot of factors that go into expected numbers. It is odd however that in a season where the ball was assumedly changed to negatively impact offense that Ryan would underperform so consistently. There’s no telling how these pitches will look in 2023, but it's safe to assume that Ryan and the Twins will continue to refine these offspeed pitches, and the deep numbers say they have a surprisingly strong base to build off of. His slider in particular appears to have a chance at being his best pitch based on the expected stats and the near 30% whiff rate. Things often went wrong when Joe Ryan turned to his secondary pitches in 2022. It confirmed many of the predictions that were made about the fastball first right-hander and likely still leaves a few concerned about his future as a starter. Still, Ryan put up dominant stretches despite these struggles, and the final numbers say that his pitch mix isn’t nearly the disaster some thought. In 2023, Ryan’s goal will surely be to establish one more reliable offering to pair with his fastball. Doing so opens a whole new ceiling for a pitcher that already helped anchor the rotation in 2022. The best part is, Joe Ryan is closer than we think. View full article

Last offseason the Twins made a shocking trade with the Yankees, parting with one of their highest paid players and their assumed future shortstop for a couple of pieces back. Now that we have a full season of data, it’s time to revisit. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins previous offseason was a flurry of surprising moves. A team that was typically pretty quiet and tame in terms of their acquisitions made several big trades in an attempt to return to relevance in the standings. Unfortunately, this didn’t come to fruition, but is it possible that parting with their starting third baseman and new shortstop actually better positioned them? The Twins Trade Away Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa Despite the remaining 2 years and $42m remaining on his contract, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Bronx last winter with whispers swirling that he had worn out his welcome. The former MVP played in 135 games in 2021, his most since his fantastic 2019, but still had modest results. Seeking to cleanse the clubhouse and avoid a potential drop off in production, this side of the Twins gamble worked. Donaldson continued causing issues in New York and he had his worst offensive year since 2012. He slashed .222/.308/.374, 3% below league average despite the harsh offensive environment. His defense did rebound and he stayed healthy for 132 games, but it’s safe to say the Twins are happy with this decision. Isiah Kiner-Falefa wasn’t on the Twins long enough to even have jerseys made, having been acquired shortly before in the Mitch Garver deal. The assumed starting shortstop, IKF had a reputation as a gamer even though he lacked any standout skills. He had the kind of season you’d expect from the light-hitting infielder, slashing .261/.314/.327. As usual, his defense was good or bad depending on the metric. This pair being shipped out allowed the Twins to sign Correa, who undeniably provided significantly more value than their initial plan at shortstop. IKF wasn’t even the starting shortstop more often than not come playoff time for the Yankees, a testament to how this trade just did not work out for New York at all. The Twins Receive Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela Gary Sanchez had a strange year. The Yankees just didn’t want him behind the plate anymore regardless of his bat, so naturally he came to Minnesota and his skills behind the plate became his carrying tool. His .205/.282/.377 line was surprisingly bad, as his standout bat completely cratered but his framing and general defense was his boon. In other circumstances it’s possible Sanchez would have either lost significant playing time or not finish the season on the team. Injuries, however, had him starting near everyday. His struggles will likely cost him this winter, as it’s doubtful a team will suddenly see him as a plus-defender and it seems the Twins were left holding the bag on his offensive dropoff. Gio Urshela was the prize of this deal. Similar to Kiner-Falefa, defensive metrics conflict on his value, but he routinely makes some eye-popping plays at the hot corner. His .285/.338/.429 slash line was a trip back to his 2019 and 2020 peak offensive seasons, both of which looked to be a product of the juiced ball and a shortened schedule. Sure enough however, Urshela was one of the Twins few bright spots down the stretch, and surely played himself into being tendered a contract for 2023. “Winning a trade” is all about opinion. Some argue the aggregate value tells the story, others like to be receiving the best player in the deal. In the Twins case, they won on both measures. Donaldson (1.6) and Kiner-Falefa (1.3) combined for 2.9 fWAR in comparison to Sanchez (1.3) and Urshela (2.4) equaling 3.7. If that wasn’t convincing enough, consider that Donaldson has another year remaining for $21m plus another $8M guaranteed in the form of a 2024 buyout. No longer a middle of the order bat and at increased risk for another injury, possible disaster looms for whatever team he’s on in 2023. IKF also has one remaining arbitration year, which is likely to either get non-tendered or traded after failing to nail down the shortstop job with several prospects on the horizon for the Yankees. On the Twins end, they certainly could’ve done better than Gary Sanchez with the $9m he was paid, but that was the cost of doing business and he’s off their books moving forward. Urshela’s arbitration value will likely settle around $9-10m, a reasonable price if he approaches anything near his 2022 output. In both the 2022 season and moving forward, this deal has created headaches on the Yankees side while the Twins undoubtedly became a better team as a result. This is without even mentioning the door to the Correa signing that was opened. Biases aside, it’s hard not to call this trade a win for the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that even Yankee fans would agree. There’s a chance this deal evens back out based on Donaldson’s or Kiner-Falefa’s performances in 2023, but there’s a better chance it gets even worse. Do you agree that this was a massive win for the Twins? Is it too early to make a determination? Let us know below! View full article

Blayne Enlow and Cody Stashak are separated by five years of age and 72 MLB innings, with Enlow having yet to debut. Despite their stark differences, they both find themselves on the 40-man bubble this winter. What might the future hold for these two wild card bullpen options for 2023? Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have a returning base for their bullpen in theory, though it could be argued that one more dependable arm would be a good addition. Still, this year we saw how important it is for the fringes of your bullpen to have depth and talent in addition to the back end. For that reason, the Twins have some difficult decisions to make on a pair of relievers already holding 40-man spots this winter who are far from sure things. Cody Stashak Stashak at his best is the perfect reliever to occupy the fringes of a good team’s bullpen. His low velocity, two-pitch mix has been plenty effective with a career 27.6% K-rate and 4.7% walk rate. He established himself enough in both 2019 and 2020 to make appearances in the postseason. For a reliever that seems to have endeared himself to the Twins in his career, why does he find himself on the bubble? We haven’t heard Stashak’s name in a long time, as he was shut down after just 16 1/3 innings this year with shoulder issues that turned out to be a torn labrum. Pitchers do make their returns from such an injury, but with the question marks the recovery process raises, 28-year-old Stashak is far from a sure thing. Plenty of players will have to be trimmed from the 40-man to fit all of the returning 60-Day IL players back onto the team. With no-brainers including Jorge Alcala, Kenta Maeda, etc., Stashak's limited role and ceiling even when at 100% could make him a 40-man casualty. Also consider that it likely wasn’t a given that Stashak would return at all after a 2021 season in which he posted a near 7.00 ERA, due mostly to the fact that his impeccable walk rate swelled to 13.3%. It would be awesome to see Stashak return and fill a middle relief spot, but the fact of the matter is even though he’s a solid arm for the middle innings, his ceiling is limited, his health is in question, and it may not be hard to fill his role with upcoming players such as Ronny Henriquez or Cole Sands if either get moved to the bullpen full time. The Twins will have a tough decision to make on one of the few remaining pieces of the 2019 Bomba Squad bullpen. Blayne Enlow It feels like we’ve heard Enlow’s name for years… because we have. Despite being selected 76th overall in 2017, Enlow is still just 23 years old. One of their top pitching prospects for several years, Enlow’s prospect stock has taken a hit. Having missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery, he returned in 2022 making a few starts before finishing the season out of the bullpen, making it Double-A Wichita. At 23, it’s likely Enlow could build back up and have a normal career as a starting pitcher. His move to the bullpen, however, is an indication that the clock is ticking and that the Twins were hoping to see a shortened path for the 6’3 right-hander to the majors. Having made his last start on August 6, Enlow made 12 appearances out of the bullpen. He went 1-1 with 3 saves, but his 6.06 ERA with a 22.2% K rate and 12.3% BB rate doesn’t exactly indicate that he’ll be close to the majors to start 2023. It’s easy to argue that given his new role, he needs more time to adjust to the routines of a starting pitcher, but the biggest concern in terms of Enlow’s future as a Twin is how long such an adjustment could take. It’s possible he spends the winter adjusting and comes out of the gate more well-prepared for a short-stint role in 2023. It’s also possible that the Twins decide they don’t have the 40-man roster space to make such a gamble. At this point, the best-case scenario is that everything goes perfectly and he can debut in the Twins bullpen in mid-to-late 2023. Having only periodically flashed the high-end talent that compelled the Twins to take a prep pitcher early in the 2017 draft, it’s certainly possible that they see better uses for the 40-man spot he currently possesses. For two fringe bullpen pieces, it may not seem like that impactful of a decision for the Twins to make in regards to keeping them on the 40-man roster. Still though, their decisions on these two likely impact whether the team goes out and brings in external help or possibly impacts other players who will be on the 40-man roster bubble. Should the Twins keep one or both around for one more year? Should they let them go? Let us know below. View full article

The Twins technically did improve on their record in 2021, and with that came several players taking steps forward. Nobody made a bigger leap than late-bloomer Nick Gordon. Before we pay our dues to the Twins former top prospect, several others deserve some love as well. Honorable Mentions: Griffin Jax: 72.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 26.9% K rate, 6.9% BB rate, 0.9 fWAR, 0.9 bWAR At the end of 2021, it became clear Jax lacked the pitch mix to thrive as a starter so he made the switch to the bullpen. It’s hard to expect more than what he provided the Twins. Arguably a Top 3 reliever for the team for most of the year, Jax turned to his wipeout slider nearly 50% of the time and the pitch was dominant in every way. Headed into 2023, it’ll be interesting to see if Jax can continue improving in his new role. Luis Arraez: .316/.375/.420, 8.3% BB rate, 7.1% K rate, 3.2 fWAR, 4.4 bWAR It’s hard for one of the team’s best players over the last few years to get “most improved” consideration but Arraez has earned it. Not only did he take his offense to the next level by winning a batting title and slugging a career-high eight home runs, but he also had an underrated season defensively. After struggling to stick at any one position, Arraez found himself playing first base for the first time in his career and more than held his own. Though his hamstring caused him issues at season’s end, he played a career-high 144 games. Hopefully, we can see more of the same moving forward. Gilberto Celestino: .238/.313/.302, 9.2% BB rate, 22.2% K rate, 0 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR To be fair, Celestino didn’t look to be an MLB-caliber player in 2021, and so even his modest 2022 numbers got him some love as one of the Twins most improved players. He showed flashes throughout the year that hint at his ability to at least become a solid fourth outfielder. He put up comfortably positive defensive metrics in center field across the board, and any kind of power development would be huge. Still just 23 years old, Celestino may very well find himself on this list again next year. Twins Daily's Most Improved Player Nick Gordon: .272/.316/.427, 4.3% BB rate, 23.7% K rate, 1.5 fWAR, 1.6 fWAR So much to be impressed by with Gordon’s 2022 season. Early calls to jettison him off the roster in favor of Royce Lewis were quickly rescinded, as Gordon found himself in a trial by fire due to injuries and came out on the other side looking like a legitimate piece of the Twins future. Gordon showed contact ability and power like never before and even did a little bit of damage against left-handed pitching on occasion. Though the Twins tailed off at the beginning of September, they’d have been out of the race well before without their former 2014 1st round pick. Gordon pivoted off of his longtime position in the middle infield and is likely a better defensive outfielder at this point, a testament to the work he put in and his raw physical ability. The Twins outfield has plenty of left-handed hitters, but Gordon is a nice complement to the hulking sluggers such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He seems like a favorite to fill a platoon-type role moving forward, finding himself in the lineup regularly when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound. One thing that should really be appreciated about Gordon is the joy he plays with. Perhaps stemming from the long path to get to this point, Gordon isn’t afraid to wear his heart on his sleeve in every situation. From a huge smile on his face following a big hit to his visible frustration when being pulled for a pinch hitter, you just have to love how invested he looks no matter the situation. With team control until 2028 and a versatile skill set, Nick Gordon may just be getting started. In the midst of a disappointing season, the development he’s shown was truly a bright spot. For that reason, join us in congratulating Nick Gordon as Twins Daily’s Most Improved Player! View full article