Cody Pirkl

Buxton showed last season what he was capable of when his fly ball rate was 12% lower and line drive rate was almost 5% higher. He was a legitimate MVP candidate before getting injured because he did it all at the plate. This season he has close to as many ABs as all of last year and he's sold out completely for power. As a result his BA is .214 instead of .306 and his OBP is .292 instead of .358. The payoff? 3 more home runs. Doesn't seem worth it to me. As for the Sano comparison, obviously Buxton does a million things better than Sano across the baseball spectrum. He's a much better player but it's pretty eye opening to see that Sano had a better average and OBP last season than Buxton does this season. For as much as people complain about Sano's "all or nothing" approach, it's worth pointing out that Buxton has been very similar in 2022.

He's still been good but he's capable of more. There's no reason he should be selling out for power imo, and if that's just his approach from now on he probably doesn't belong in the 2 or 3 spot. Hitting sub .200 and having a sub .300 OBP since the start of May can only be salvaged so much by an extra base hit here and there. If Miguel Sano were on the stretch Buxton's been on since the first month of the season people would be losing their minds.

I preface the entire article by pointing out his chronic knee injury and even say the change he made could be related. The fact of the matter is that a change has been made.

Streaky yes, but he's doubling down on it by hitting so many fly balls. More line drives would at least give him more positive possibilities for when he makes contact.

There’s no denying it, Byron Buxton has had a great season to date. Despite leading the team in all kinds of categories, it’s been a weird one. Is there any reason to worry about the Twins franchise icon moving forward? Coming into the weekend, Byron Buxton has put up a tremendous season so far. He’s 36% above league average offensively according to wRC+ and has topped his career-high in home runs, well on his way to over 40 despite regular rest days. That being said, it's been a puzzling season for the Twins' star center fielder. While we can’t complain about his performance to date, it is worth wondering about Buxton moving forward. The goal has always been to keep Byron Buxton healthy. Since 2019, he has been a well above league-average hitter whenever he’s been on the field. The Twins have accomplished that to an extent this season, as he’s avoided any IL trips thus far despite a few small injuries here and there leading to short absences. It’s widely understood that Buxton has been and will likely continue working through a chronic knee injury suffered in Boston back in April. Just something to keep in mind when looking at Buxton’s season. As you can see, Buxton’s season consists of incredibly high highs and incredibly low lows. It’s possible that these brutal streaks coincide with flare-ups of his ailing knee, an issue that unfortunately doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon. One thing is for certain, however, after a shortened 2021 season in which he would have paced out as one of the best in baseball, he’s completely changed his approach. After an unbelievably well-rounded line of .306/.358/.647 in 2021, Buxton has essentially failed to provide anything at all at the plate aside from power. His .218 batting average is his worst mark since 2018 and his .293 OBP is his worst since 2020, a season in which he walked only 1.5% of the time. While he’s having a career year in terms of walk rate (7.9%), his strikeout rate of 28.2% is his highest since 2018 as well. His batting average on balls in play of .210 is also a career-worst by a long shot. Why might that be? After a shortened 2021 season in which Buxton was one of the best hitters in baseball, his flyball rate has absolutely exploded from 38.4 to 50.3%. To put it simply, in more than half of his batted ball events he’s hitting the ball in the air. 26.5% of those fly balls have found the seats, but the other 73.5% are easy outs. This increase in fly balls has come at the expense of his line drives, a batted ball type that typically rewards hitters league-wide with a near .700 batting average. It’s worth noting that Buxton’s quality of contact remains intact and has afforded him a .262 xBA and .358 xWOBA to this point, but it seems flyball-oriented hitters league wide have underperformed so far in 2022. Regarding the short term, it’s worth considering how such a flawed plate approach could affect him moving forward. Since May 11, Buxton is slashing .192/.273/.479, still a 110 wRC+, but nowhere near the superstar levels we’ve seen him achieve in the past. The entirety of that measure comes strictly from slugging percentage, as the batting average and on-base ability are quite frankly terrible. Masking those numbers are several high-profile home runs in the clutch, a trait that many believe isn’t a predictive or repeatable skill. His overall batting line wouldn’t change if just a few of his homers hadn’t come in such clutch spots, but would the perception around him change at all? In the long term, you have to desperately hope this change in approach isn’t an active choice that he intends to continue. We’ve seen that Buxton is still a valuable player while he’s selling out for fly balls, but becoming so one-dimension offensively cuts off any chance of being the MVP level player he’s capable of being. Furthermore, he’s able to take the mistakes he’s given and drive them over the fence regularly enough to mask his other deficiencies in 2022. What happens a few years down the road when that ability decreases with age? There’s no action to take with Byron Buxton at this time, and it’s incredibly hard to be dissatisfied with his season thus far. Still, it’s worth pointing out that there has been a major change in his approach this season that has made him a decidedly worse offensive player. This “sell out for fly balls” approach has resulted in just three more big flies than he had in a near-identical amount of plate appearances in 2021, and every other offensive stat of his has suffered greatly as a result. Hitting home runs is fun, but he’s going to have to continue to do so in high-leverage spots to make any meaningful contributions on offense. Perhaps it’s his knee injury, or perhaps it was an active choice to get the ball in the air as much as possible coming into the season. Either way, after several brutal stretches already this season followed by glimpses of what Byron Buxton can be, hopefully another change in approach is on the horizon. Perhaps it’s not fair to judge the way somebody achieves success. In Buxton’s case, however, it’s so hard to imagine why we’re seeing such a dramatic shift in approach coming off an MVP-caliber performance. Does this change in approach concern you? Are you happy to enjoy the big flies while they last and worry about the future when we get there? Let us know below! View full article

I think you're underestimating how terrible Joe Ryan looked. He was 89-90 from the start and I don't think he came close to hitting a spot all day. He was lucky he made it through 4 without the game being out of hand.

The Twins bullpen is unforgivably bad, and it’s cost them dearly over the past week. As the starting rotation has mostly held up recently, it’s time to hit the panic button and start evaluating some of the starting depth in AAA for a bullpen role. The stats are out there, the Twins bullpen is one of the worst in all of baseball as some of the worst teams in the league have lucked into better units for the back end of games. The waiver claims such as Tyler Thornburg and Jharel Cotton continue to churn with several similar tier pitchers waiting in Triple-A. Instead of continuing this seemingly endless attempt to get any kind of value out of these types of pitchers, it’s time the Twins try something new. With several younger arms in St. Paul’s rotation, it may be time to switch them over to the bullpen to help a big league club that has no help on the way for another month. Josh Winder Winder has become one of the Twins' better starting pitching prospects these last couple of years and was fantastic in his first start off of the IL in the doubleheader against Cleveland. His long-term outlook still looks very much like a middle-of-the-rotation starter. The Twins don’t need that right now. Winder began the season in the bullpen as a long reliever, something the Twins could definitely use. They could keep him in that role, or perhaps shortening his outings could help him limit his innings after his recent trip to the IL for shoulder issues for the second year in a row. Winder’s 96 mph fastball we’ve seen occasionally in starts may play up to 97-98 in the pen, and paired with his slider and changeup, Winder could become a major weapon in a bullpen that desperately needs it. The Twins can always stretch him back out next season and return him to a starters role assuming they don’t take the same route they did with this year’s bullpen. Cole Sands Sands is seen as more of a fringy starting pitching prospect but has been pretty good in St. Paul recently. The righty has thrown 14 innings since he was demoted allowing only two runs and striking out 16 batters. While it would be nice to keep him as starting pitching depth for this year, perhaps it’s Winder who fills that role and Sands who makes the bullpen transition. Sands has one pitch that could be an absolute weapon in a bullpen role in his 70-grade curveball. Pitches that grade out that high are the ones you can bump up to throwing over half the time in shorter stints and become absolutely dominant. While he only throws 92, it’d be safe to bet on seeing more 94s which doesn’t sound like much but would pair very well with a legitimate breaking ball. He’s also only halfway to his 2021 innings total and doesn’t have any injury concerns, making him a candidate to play an early-season Griffin Jax role pitching multiple innings when the team needs it. Ronny Henriquez Acquired in the Mitch Garver trade, the Twins were aggressive with Henriquez, sticking him in AAA as a 22-year-old and keeping him in the rotation despite many scouts believing he was a future reliever. To be quite honest, it’s hard to say why he’s still a starter at this point. The 5’10 right hander (who’s reportedly shorter than listed) has a near 7 ERA in 44 innings in the Saints rotation. Henriquez has everything you’d want in a reliever, as his fastball has a very high spin and can already touch 98 mph. He has two usable secondary offerings in the slider and changeup which both can be plus pitches at times. Even as a starter he’s typically been around 10 K/9 in his minor league career, making his potential as a reliever easy to dream on. Perhaps it’s unfair to say that the likelihood of Henriquez sticking in the rotation is low, but it’s certainly lower than Winder or Sands. He’s also already on the 40-man roster, which may entice the Twins to switch him to a role that gets them value out of his roster spot sooner rather than later. Perhaps Sands or Winder are able to come up in the next few days and fill a bulk role, but Henriquez may be the favorite to make the transition and just become a traditional dominant reliever for the rest of his career. The Twins have a massive mess on their hands in a bullpen that’s solely responsible for a 10-game swing in the AL Central. In addition to relievers just not being effective, the coaching staff is also failing to effectively manage a 13-man pitching staff as we saw Thursday when they had to try to close out a win with Tyler Thornburg because there were no other options. Not only could one of these minor league starters add quality to one of baseball’s worst late-game units, but having already been stretched out they can make that 13-man pitching staff feel more like 14 by being able to provide bulk innings. One thing is for certain, if they’re going to wait until the deadline to add, they need to start preparing these arms to be relievers immediately. We’ve tried the reclamation waiver wire route, and it’s safe to say that continuing down this road could take the Twins out of the running before it comes time to add at the deadline. For a front office that talks so much about a pitching pipeline and relied so heavily on it this season, it’s time to take a leap and turn to the youth movement. What we’re doing right now simply isn’t working. View full article

For what it's worth, Urshela and Arraez are miles apart in terms of how valuable they've been this year. Arraez is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement, Urshela is 12th. Barely ahead of Nick Gordon who plays 3 days per week. Just two days ago Urshela came in at 0 Wins Above Replacement.

Gio is definitely just fine. I'd be fine with giving him the majority of the time at 3B. I just don't think he's good enough to play 7 days per week with no question of anybody else ever stepping in. I get people's worry about Miranda's defense, he's been terrible at 1B. 3B is his primary position though and he has such a small sample playing there in the majors so far to judge too harshly. Just wish we'd see him there a little more so we could fairly evaluate.

Jose Miranda has been treated more like an expendable veteran than an up and coming top prospect since his recall. It's time for the Twins to take a leap and see what they have in their former minor league hitter of the year. Jose Miranda was brought aboard the Twins organization as a shortstop/second/third base type player years ago. Despite that fact, he's played first base almost exclusively since making his debut, and basically only plays a couple days per week against left handed pitching. Not only has his usage directly contradicted the Twins handling of top prospects in the past, but it's also crippled his ability to show that he belongs in the MLB. Jose Miranda is deserving of so much more. Defensive Ability Miranda has come to develop the reputation as a terrible defender among fans already, which is true if you're talking about first base. Many are quick to judge his ability at third base as surely if he can't handle what's considered the easiest infield position he can't play anywhere else. Unfortunately for Miranda, he was thrust into the role he has now as the Twins lack any other right handed hitters capable of playing first base. Miranda played some first the last few years in the minors, though his innings there were insignificant compared to his time at second and third. We've seen him mess up all kinds of in between plays on defense, which makes sense considering he's been forced to debut at what is not his primary position. In his limited time at 3rd base with the big league club, he's made one error and there isn't close to enough of a sample size yet to deem him a bad defender. Offensive Ability Despite the Twins unwillingness to budge from their current platooning of Miranda, his bat has been good enough to warrant more of a look. While players such as Sanchez, Kepler and Larnach are limping through June, Miranda has posted a .314/.340/.510 line which almost directly coincides with his recall from AAA at the end of May. Any hitter can go on a hot stretch, but Miranda's numbers since returning to Target Field are showing off what made him the 2021 minor league hitter of the year. He has contact skills, he has plate discipline, he has power. We saw a defensively inept Luis Arraez make himself expendable in 2019 based solely on his bat and look at him now. What else does Miranda have to do at the plate? The Twins Can Make Room The Twins don't have quite the log jam it appears they do in the lineup. It's understandable why Miranda is on the short end of a platoon at first base when they have Kirilloff and Arraez to mash right handed pitching. Across the rest of the lineup however, opportunity should exist. The Twins just continue to write out lineup cards that include both Gary Sanchez and Ryan Jeffers. Not only does this open them up for disaster if the starting catcher gets injured, it's just plain ineffective. Both catchers are capable of going on a run offensively for short periods, Jeffers is on one now. Both however are below league average hitters at the moment, and going an extra mile to get a second catcher in your lineup regardless of the name seems like getting too cute. MI'd argue it's worth getting Miranda some DH at bats instead of one of the catchers that we expect little offensive value from. In addition to DH, Gio Urshela just does not need to be the 7 days per week starting third baseman. The best day at the plate he's had all season on Wednesday elevated him from a below average hitter to slightly above. He was worth 0 fWAR coming into that game making him exactly a replacement level player. His increase by 0.2 in one game is impressive, but his total value on the season still isn't anything special and I don't think we expect such performances from him regularly. In addition, Urshela's defense appears to be overrated by many, mainly because he can make some incredible plays at the hot corner while also booting plays that should be routine. It's a very interesting skillset for Urshela who definitely holds his own but doesn't have a gold glove like defensive skill to keep him in the lineup regardless of his bat. Mixing Miranda in every once in awhile just to evaluate him at his primary position just shouldn't be difficult. The Twins usage of Miranda has been perplexing. We've heard them say it a million times, most recently with Royce Lewis. They don't want him on the big league club if he can't play everyday. Miranda isn't the high profile prospect Lewis is, but they're treating him like they don't care about his development at all. They're DHing below league average catchers and awarding 100% playing time to players who don't deserve it while Miranda, one of the team's hottest hitters in June, plays a couple days per week. It's possible the Twins don't see Miranda as a future regular, an odd conclusion to already be drawing. Perhaps they see him as a trade piece as many have suggested, although I'd argue playing him solely at a foreign position on very rare occasions isn't the best way to showcase his skills. At any rate, Jose Miranda needs more of a look. After one of the single greatest minor league seasons in Twins history, Miranda has earned more than pinch hit and weak side platoon duty on a big league club that hasn't exactly been steamrolling the competition recently. Would you like to see more Jose Miranda in the Twins lineup? Let us know below! View full article

They haven't been rumored to be shopping him but keep in mind, they weren't really shopping Zac Gallen a few years ago until they found out they could get someone they loved in Jazz Chisholm. The Twins have a good amount of near MLB hitting prospects which the Marlins need and I've been watching them for a few years now wondering when they'd part with some of their pitching to make a more well rounded team. Maybe Rogers is off the table, or maybe they're willing to cash in on a struggling pitcher who's value is still riding high off of last year. I wouldn't call a deal like this likely because it never is when it comes to a challenge trade involving all young players being exchanged but I do think this is a rare fit that would really help both sides.

If Trevor Rogers goes back to last year's level (he still has the same velo, spin rate, and pedigree) he's without a doubt our #1 starting pitcher. The only measurable difference between 2021 and 2022 is a slight drop in release point, he doesn't look broken or injured or missing spider tac or anything along those lines. As I've pointed out, we can keep calling for somebody like Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas, but when the Dodgers or other big market teams with more reckless tendencies decide they want these guys, the Twins will be the first out of the mix based on everything we've seen the front office do since they were hired. Nothing wrong with wanting these ready made aces, I just personally don't find it worthwhile to put a whole lot of thought into the idea because I just don't see it happening.

Here's the issue with trade ideas like this (and why I'm writing about names that aren't very appealing): The front office has never shown any hint that they'd do something like this. There are other teams with better farm systems and more money who will want guys like Montas, Bednar, etc. and the Twins have to win a bidding war against them. This is why they do things like trade for Kenta Maeda and change his pitch sequencing. It's the only way they can win without emptying their farm system. A trade deadline that brings in Frankie Montas and Bednar/Stratton probably costs somebody like Kirilloff, Larnach, Arraez etc. in addition to a bunch of other players at the top of our prospect lists. Regardless of whether or not you think they should do that, do you think they will?

IMO the reason Miami would sell low is because they still have an incredible rotation with a bunch of other monster arms approaching the MLB. That alone isn't enough to trade someone just to trade them but they have a desperate need for controllable bats and I think they match up well with the Twins in that regard.

I'm not super worried about expenses for next year, as you said they'll cost less to acquire and we can count on Correa's $35m falling off for next season. We also shouldn't have to invest much in the rotation and we know they won't do so in the bullpen regardless of where things stand there. I get the nervousness around trading for a pitcher in need of fixing, but this is what they do. In Maeda's case he needed a pitch mix change that made a huge difference. In Paddack's case it was performance and health based. Regardless of how they worked out, I think the history of this front office operating on the trade market tells us these names are more realistic than a pitcher that comes in and is immediately our #1. I'm not saying they shouldn't trade for Mahle, Montas, Castillo etc., it's certainly the safer value. I just think they're going to be one of the first teams to bow out when the bidding wars begin.

Better than Ober or Dylan Bundy as playoff starters I'd argue yes. The point of these names isn't that they're ready made improvements to the front of the rotation, they all have tweaks to make that could get them there. I don't think anybody thought we were getting anything better than a low end #3 when we traded for Maeda. I get why people don't want to see names like this as trade targets but unfortunately I find them more worthwhile to talk about than someone like Frankie Montas until the front office proves me wrong.

The trade market will be here before we know it and some teams are already getting some rumors swirling. The Twins have some needs as we know, and there may be some targets that fit their style. The lineup is solid and an addition probably isn’t 100% necessary. The bullpen is probably in need of two solid arms at the very least. The question is whether the Twins see it necessary to add to the rotation. With arms shuffling in and out with injury and none of their top prospects in AAA looking like options as late-season additions, it’s possible the front office finds themselves searching for help. The Tyler Mahle’s and Luis Castillo’s of the world are fun to dream on, but the Twins have a type. We’ve typically seen them target arms that need fixing as we saw with Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack. The prices are lower and despite injuries to both, they’ve shown that they can be trusted to fix talented arms that haven’t reached their full potential for whatever reason. There are a few such pitchers that could be available this summer. German Marquez Could this finally be the year? The Rockies could have gotten a haul for Marquez at one point if they had only accepted that their best-case scenario was fourth in their own division with no shot at a wild card. Present-day not much has changed in that regard and perhaps their tune has changed. Since the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Marquez’s performance has dropped off precipitously despite being just 27 and now the Rockies will likely have to accept a much more modest return in trade if they ship off their former ace. Part of his issue is plain bad luck this season as Marquez has posted a 6.09 ERA with better peripherals despite pitching in Coors. His home runs have spiked and his strikeouts have dried up. With a year and a half of control left, the Twins could swoop in and save Marquez from the thin air of Colorado. His once-vaunted mid-90s fastball and disgusting slider are getting clubbed this season and just a few tweaks paired with a better park could revitalize Marquez. It’s unclear whether the Rockies intend to continue trying to contend, but the Twins have plenty to choose from at all levels of their system for a trade return. Kyle Hendricks “The Professor” as he’s known in Chicago has had a storied career on the North Side, helping the Cubs break their World Series drought in 2016 and serving as their ace for several years. The back end of the four-year deal Hendricks was given has not gone according to plan, as he’s posted middling numbers at best in 2021 and to begin 2022. The Cubs have a lot of question marks in their near future and they may finally be open to talking trade in regard to their 32-year-old soft tosser who has a year and a half left under contract. Hendricks' average fastball has settled in around 87 mph at this point which sounds scary, but the right-hander has never averaged even 90 on the heater as he’s dominated lineups with command and poise. It’s certainly walking a tightrope with such little velocity, but Hendricks has done it before and nothing in his stuff screams that he can’t do it again. He’s recently changed to a changeup-heavy approach, his best pitch which has led to a few better outings lately. Perhaps the Twins have their own ideas to fix, but given Hendricks’ 4.95 ERA so far this season, the Twins would be paying far from the ace starting pitcher price. Trevor Rogers Perhaps the riskiest target, Rogers has legitimate ace upside and has very recently shown it in the MLB. During the minor league shutdown, Rogers gained significant velocity on his fastball which has held ever since, contributing to his 2.64 ERA in 133 innings in 2021. So far this season, however, Rogers has been a completely different pitcher, posting 5.87 ERA and seeing his K rate drop from 28.5% to 18.7%. At 24 years old with four and a half years of control remaining, this could be the highest upside gamble the Twins could make. Rogers’ decline is puzzling, as his plus-plus changeup has underperformed and the rest of his repertoire has followed suit. His release point has steadily dropped ever so slightly since his debut which could be one issue the Twins could look to clean up. The Twins and Marlins have long been discussed as a great trade fit, as the Twins need young pitching and the Marlins need some young MLB-ready bats to support their already fantastic rotation. Make no mistake, this would be a blockbuster, likely involving someone like Jose Miranda and several other painful pieces leaving Minnesota. Still, Rogers might be just a small tweak away from a return to form, an outcome that would likely make him the undisputed #1 pitcher in the Twins rotation. That’s a possibility that’s hard to ignore. It’s possible this is the year the Twins go and get a ready-made ace. Personally, I’d hold off on such ideas until we actually see it. Instead, there are several pitchers that could be on the market that fit the Twins mold of acquiring talented arms in need of a tweak or two. Do you think any of these names are likelier than others? Do you have any names that aren’t on this list? Let us know below. View full article

The Twins bullpen is in need of some aid in high leverage. Help may be on the way from outside sources, though not for at least another month with the trade deadline on the horizon. Luckily, they have a few internal options that could possibly make a leap. After opening the season in near spotless fashion, the Twins bullpen has shown some significant blemishes in the form of late-blown leads in particular. Help appeared to be on the way in the form of Jorge Alcala before his rehab stint was paused due to recurring elbow pain. The pipe dream of Matt Canterino coming to save the bullpen is also on hold as he was recently placed on the IL with elbow issues. What we’re left with is Jhoan Duran appearing to be the one and only high leverage option we can trust with little internal help on the way. The Twins however have a few pitchers who could change that belief. Jharel Cotton Once a top starting pitching prospect, Cotton dealt with a plethora of injuries before taking off in the Ranger’s bullpen in 2021 only to be DFAed despite solid results. The Twins saw an opportunity and have bounced him on and off the 40 man in 2022, recently adding him back on Wednesday. Unlike his first few stints in the Twins pen, this time there’s ample opportunity for him to stick. Cotton has an unspectacular profile for a reliever with his low 90s fastball and changeup as a primary offspeed. Unlike most changeups however, Cotton’s is relatively effective against both right and left handed hitters. The pitch is good enough to carry his entire repertoire with its 44% whiff rate, and neither his fastball or changeup have allowed hitters any opportunities for success in his 10.2 innings thus far. He may not be a closer or even setup man in waiting, but Cotton came out and performed when the Twins needed it most during the Toronto series. We saw DJ LeMahieu touch him up for a homer on Thursday after a borderline call that could have ended the at bat, but Cotton looked like one of the better relievers in that game and his peripherals still look great. Caleb Thielbar Many were quick to call for Thielbar’s release after four bad outings to start the year despite his massive contributions to the Twins bullpen in seasons past. Unsurprisingly, the 35 year old appeared to be missing some feel in those appearances following a shortened Spring Training which resulted in some uncharacteristic walks. Since then, Thielbar has been incredible. Thielbar may currently hold the “lefty specialist role” to an extent due to his devastating numbers against left handed hitters (.154/.313/.154). That being said, he’s far from your typical fastball/slider lefty. He mixes in a curveball with differing speeds and an occasional changeup to help equalize right handed hitters. He doesn’t have a single pitch that’s allowed a batting average above .240 or slugging percentage above .400 despite 63% of his opposing hitters being righties. With the current state of the bullpen, Thielbar’s stuff may be too good to pigeonhole him into lefty/lefty matchups. As we saw early in Taylor Rogers’ relief career, if the opportunity and talent are there, being left handed doesn’t have to mean you need to be used as a matchup reliever. Jovani Moran Perhaps the favorite of this group, Moran could legitimately find himself shooting up the depth chart with just a few successful outings. The left hander simply dominated the minors last year with a K rate of around 40% between AA and AAA. After taking his lumps in his debut in 2021, his unbelievable stuff has been on full display in his 8 plus innings so far in 2022. Walks will always be a part of Moran’s game and he’s walked 17% of hitters so far this year. That being said he’s always limited home runs and hard contact to cancel it out. Furthermore, his 37% K rate so far shows that his raw stuff should be good enough to make this work despite the free baserunners. Regardless of the small sample, Moran has a whiff rate of over 44% on both his fastball and changeup which he uses to give opposing hitters absolute fits. He rarely uses his slider, but so far every opposing hitter who’s swung has come up empty. While such dominance simply cannot hold up to that extent, stretches like this don’t happen by accident. Jovani Moran is absolutely nasty. It’s possible the Twins have a big move in them to provide the bullpen with a huge boost. I’d argue such a move is a must. That being said, the team has a month plus worth of games to play before even considering such an addition. We’ve tried Tyler Duffey, we’ve tried Pagan, it may be time to look at some unlikely candidates to pick up some high-leverage work. Do you think any of these arms can grab the job and run with it? View full article

Yet againm Jorge Polanco is off to a slow start in 2022, something that has gone largely unnoticed until the Twins recent difficult stretch. With multiple staples of the lineup missing, it’s worth asking whether the Twins struggling second baseman can pick up the slack. Jorge Polanco has proven to be a difficult player to assess in recent years. After a 2019 breakout, the Twins second baseman required ankle surgery and suffered through a brutal 2020 before requiring yet another surgical intervention. He also missed a few games here and there in 2021 and more recently 2022 with ongoing issues with the same ankle. The issue just never seems to fully improve. What we’re left with is the constant worry that Polanco’s ankle is holding him back during any stretch in which he struggles. In 2021, he looked cooked through the end of May with no signs of life before turning his season around and finishing as arguably the Twins' player. Can we expect the same 2022? Through the end of May this year Polanco has once again not been good. His wRC+ suggests he’s actually been 2% above the league average hitter, but this is during one of the most pitcher-friendly starts to a season in years. His .227/.324/.358 line through May is a massive disappointment. Unlike in recent years where he struggled early, however, there are a lot of positives the further you dig. In 2021m Polanco was worth over 4 wins by Fangraphs measures, a threshold that indicates a very high-quality player. Polanco slashed .269/.323/.503, slugging 33 home runs down the stretch. As you can see, Statcast’s measures aren’t painting the picture of a major fall off from 2021. Polanco’s .228 average is ugly, although underneath the hood his .277 expected batting average is better than his monster 2021 season. His .356 slugging percentage is far below his .498 expected slugging, which is also ten points higher than his 2021 mark. In short, Jorge Polanco has not been a very good hitter, but his results are lagging behind his process at the plate which appears to still be elite. So what could be going on with Jorge Polanco? For starters, it’s fair to wonder whether we’re just watching some bad luck. Expected stats aren’t predictive, but Statcast suggests that if Polanco continues what he’s been doing he’s in for some major regression in a positive way. It’s fair to consider however that the baseball MLB is using may be impacting him negatively. Polanco doesn’t have big-time raw power as his 33-homer 2021 suggests. With reports surfacing almost daily of players noticing different baseballs even on an inning to inning basis, Polanco could be a victim of MLB’s newest favorite game to play: Which baseball are we using today? Statcast’s expected stats are based on how players impact the ball and what kinds of results that impact has historically led to. It’s possible that the historical significance of Polanco’s batted balls needs to be thrown out the window as MLB tries to encourage a move back to early 2000s style baseball. Polanco’s 20.2 degree launch angle is a career-high. Without Miguel Sano type power, it’s possible that Polanco’s increasing launch angle is going to lead to more lazy fly balls than balls over or off of the wall if the baseball is designed to kill offense. At any rate, It’s difficult to say whether Polanco is in for a major rebound, although it may be safer to lean in that direction. He’s done all he can so far to repeat his star level performance in 2021, but it’s possible his actual results are out of his hands to a degree. Offense has seen an uptick across the MLB in recent weeks (difficult to imagine if you’re watching the Twins I know), and it’s hard to say whether it’s the weather, luck, or yet another baseball commissioned by the MLB. All Polanco can do is continue to grind out his plate appearances as he has been and hope the hits start falling. Do you think Jorge Polanco is due for a rebound? Are his struggles more than just bad luck or a sabotaged baseball? Let us know below. View full article