Cody Pirkl

Brent Rooker finds himself in no man’s land as he finishes his age 26 season for the Twins. On a team with many questions about their future, Rooker has plenty of his own, and the Twins find themselves with a decision to make. Rooker has had an unbelievably up and down season. In March and April the right handed slugger posted a putrid -5 wRC+. After being sent down to AAA for a good while, he came back up in July and posted a 164 wRC+, only to dip back down to an 82 mark in August. Rooker appears to be finishing strong however, as he’s been 44% above league average in September. Rooker has essentially switched off every other month between looking like an unusable player and being a pitcher’s worst nightmare. His final line of .206/.294/.413 is good for a wRC+ of 114, 14% above league average. The nature of how he got there however isn’t so straightforward and leaves the Twins with a few options to choose from. Business as Usual Rooker has cycled in and out of the lineup all season and at no point has really had a starting position. The Twins could continue to pick their spots to get him in the lineup as they have to try to put him in favorable matchups. This issue with this however is Rooker has historically had reverse splits when it comes to hitting lefties and righties. 7 of his 8 home runs in 2021 have come off of right handed pitching and it’s a bit difficult to slot him into a lineup over someone like Kepler, Kirilloff or at some point Larnach against a right handed pitcher when these other bats have such a stark advantage. Furthermore, it’s fair to wonder whether the inconsistent playing time is partially to blame for Brent Rooker’s hot and cold streaks. For a player who has so much swing and miss with such little plate discipline, consistent reps may be keeping him from unlocking his full potential. Hand him the Keys To combat any kind of concerns with splits or reps, the Twins could simply play Rooker nearly everyday. Larnach will likely begin 2021 in the minors and it could create an opening for him to really get a fair shake at showing what he can do between the DH spot and the corner outfield. The down side of this idea has been well documented, as Rooker is far from an even league average defender. In his brief time in the outfield he’s been worth -2 Outs Above Average in left field and -1 in right. The bat would simply have to be unbelievable to make up for the troubles such a defensive downgrade would create. It’s also difficult to envision anything close to a full time DH role. With Kirilloff back and Sano showing little improvement at first base, it’s easy to see the former filling nearly all of the time at first base, leaving Sano to more often than not fill the DH spot. For as frustrated as the fan base is with Sano, Rooker has a long way to go to prove that he deserves those at bats over him. Find a Trade Partner It’s a strong possibility that the National League will be adopting the designated hitter this winter which would create 15 more suitors for a defensively-challenged slugger such as Rooker. While he likely wouldn’t draw much of a return on his own, it’s easy to see him being a nice peripheral piece to a bigger deal with a team that has no immediate options at their newly opened DH spot. While it’s always nerve-racking to part with a prospect who once had such shine, the Twins need to be realistic this winter. At 27 years old headed into 2022, Brent Rooker still has more questions than answers about his future in Major League Baseball. Those answers won’t be found while playing every 3rd or 4th day, and unless the Twins are prepared to provide a real opportunity, it’s really not even fair to him. So which road should the Twins take? Does Brent Rooker need a fair chance at a full time job or has his window with the Twins closed? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It absolutely is. The nice thing about these 3 guys is if you doubt the Twins player development program these arms have been developed by other teams. In all 3 cases they've already thrown plenty of innings in the MLB and are ready to throw into a rotation (admittedly on the back end) for relatively cheap. We could still sign or trade for a front line starter or two, these guys are meant to be additional acquisitions that could turn develop more since they're controlled for 3+ years.

Kepler may be disappointing but he's a valuable player on a very affordable contract. He's still a gold glove level defender with the ability to fill CF and he can still hit right handed pitching well. I agree on him not being enough for someone like Javier, but I'd bet he'd easily get us Hernandez and would be close on Toussant.

After almost completely ignoring the trade market last winter, the Twins almost surely won’t be able to afford to do so this year. Luckily for the pitching-needy Twins, there are plenty of controllable arms to target. The Twins could easily patch together a rotation by signing a small army of one-year rentals with an expensive front of the rotation starter for several years. Unfortunately, that may be a bit of a band-aid on their pitching troubles. The Twins should be looking for arms that can immediately take the reins in the rotation with several years of control and plenty of upside to grow. While the Twins can surely find a lengthy list of such arms to choose from, I found three that could be particularly interesting. Elieser Hernandez Hernandez has been far from a star in pitching-rich Miami, likely being their #5 starter at best. At 26 years old, his 4.70 ERA through 210 innings pitched doesn’t tell the whole story. Hernandez has posted a K/9 of 9.0 or better the last three years as well as showing impeccable control. He also has the kind of slider the front office loves, as the pitch has annually generated a whiff rate over 30% with a .158 xBA and .267 xSLG allowed in 2021. He’s also been working on a changeup which has a 34% whiff rate as well this year despite getting hit around a bit. The big red flag on Hernandez is the home run rate which nears 2.0 per 9 innings in his career. His fastball gets crushed which is why he’s been working on the changeup. In short, Hernandez is already in the process of trying to correct his biggest issue and the early results are somewhat encouraging. With a pipeline of upcoming pitching in Miami, Hernandez may be out a spot as soon as opening day and therefore would be a low risk high reward acquisition for the Twins who would control Hernandez for the next three years. Christian Javier This may be shooting for the stars but Javier has the kind of upside the front office should be looking to acquire for this winter. Like Hernandez, Javier finds himself overshadowed in an impressive rotation. In this case, the result was a move to the bullpen. Javier owns a 3.30 ERA in his MLB career through almost 150 innings with a 10+ K/9 so far. Walks and homers have been an issue, but the raw talent far outweighs the red flags for the 24-year-old. Javier is likely in Houston’s rotation plans for the 2022 season although not as the front line starter he could potentially develop into. The price would certainly be high, perhaps involving an already established player such as Max Kepler or Mitch Garver. That being said, it’s a chance to buy low on Javier whose price may never be lower coming off a second half in the bullpen. The Twins can get an established, talented young pitcher to mould into their next stud over the next four years. Touki Toussaint Toussaint is probably the most fun pitcher on this list because of his GIF worthy repertoire. A former first-round pick, it’s easy to see Toussaint’s talent in just about every pitch he throws. Unfortunately, the nasty stuff that leads to his near 10 K/9 also accounts for his 5+ BB/9 in his career. Through 145 innings his 5.46 ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence, though the raw talent is as obvious as can be. The Twins reputation for turning around pitchers took a hit in 2021, but Toussaint isn’t Matt Shoemaker. It may just take a small tweak to turn Toussaint into a legitimate rotation piece, and his success in the MLB thus far is likely holding down his acquisition cost. The Twins can target any number of pitchers on the trade market, but these are just three candidates that can be brought in with a good amount of potential payoff. Do you like any one the three more than the others? Is there another pitcher the Twins should inquire on? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The difference in Buxton is it looks like he'll be an MVP level player when he's on the field. Now that Pineda is throwing under 90 mph it's fair to wonder whether he can even get by in a rotation at all over the course of a full season.

The Twins are in need of rotation help for 2022 and have a convenient candidate in Saturday-starter Michael Pineda already on the team and likely willing to come back. Perhaps the Twins shouldn’t be so quick on a reunion, however. Pineda has been one of the success stories of the current front office when it comes to free agent acquisitions. In between a suspension and time on the Injured List, he threw 260 innings across three seasons and accumulated a 3.94 ERA. It seemed like it was a given Pineda was on his way out at this July’s trade deadline. Lo and behold, here we are near year’s end and Pineda is still in Minnesota. It was reported that there just wasn’t a whole lot of interest in Big Mike from contenders at the deadline, and for several good reasons. The Twins may be wise to consider these reasons this winter as they weigh the idea of bringing Big Mike back to Target Field. Declining Health It may be jumping the gun to say Pineda’s health is “declining” as he’s had somewhat frequent IL trips for the entirety of his Twins career. The Twins originally signed him coming off of Tommy John surgery. After an expected debut late in the 2018 season was called off due to a torn meniscus, Big Mike was on and off the IL in 2019 with recurring knee issues. He then had a freak forearm injury after being hit with a comebacker earlier this year and just recently was reactivated after missing time due to an oblique strain. Pineda will be 33 years old in 2022. While many pitchers can continue being effective into their early and mid 30s, Pineda’s body has been through a lot in his career. Things like knee injuries and pulled obliques can have long standing repercussions with athletes and can certainly be recurrent injuries. Teams in need of a starting pitcher at the deadline likely weighed the chances of Pineda actually being healthy down the stretch and passed. Rightfully so, as Pineda still didn’t look right and hit the IL shortly thereafter. The Twins have a significant amount of innings to fill in 2022. They may be wise to consider just how many of those innings they can really count on Pineda to fill. Walking the Tightrope For the first time since Pineda became a full time member of the Twins rotation, it’s fair to question just what quality of innings you can expect from him moving forward. Once possessing a mid 90s fastball, Pineda averaged a respectable 92.5 on his heater in 2019 and 92.1 in 2020. In 2021 Pineda is averaging just 90.1 mph, two entire ticks off of his fastball in just one year. More recently it’s been rare to see Pineda even hit 90 mph. This decline in velocity could be tied to the aforementioned injuries he’s dealt with this year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it can be disregarded. Pineda likely isn’t getting any healthier and his fastball has already declined to the point where not being at 100% appears to leave him with a sub 90mph fastball. We’ve seen the high-wire act it takes to succeed in the majors with a fastball that fails to reach 90. Arms like Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe have flashed success but have never been able to fully maintain Major League success for long periods. Pineda, whose repertoire consists of two pitches being thrown near 85% of the time, likely wouldn’t be an exception. Big Mike may not have been on the field as often as the Twins hoped these last three years, but he’s been one of their steadiest arms when healthy. Headed into a season where every pitching acquisition will be incredibly important, Pineda is a risk to both the quantity and quality of innings he can provide. It’s entirely possible that Pineda tries to leverage his successful three years in Minnesota into one last payday. In a vacuum, his previous performance could likely net him another multi-year deal with upwards of $8-10m per year, and it’d be fair to look for good money. I’d argue that in order for Big Mike to return to Minnesota, it likely has to come on a much cheaper deal to account for the risk involved on the Twins end. The Twins need to avoid making such a risky pitcher one of their main additions to a currently bare 2022 starting rotation just because he’s a familiar face. Pineda was passed by at the deadline by contenders for several concerns that still very much exist. The Twins, having several additions to be made and needing to hit on all of them, need to be extremely careful if they want to pursue a reunion. Do you agree? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Bailey Ober wasn’t a top prospect headed into 2021 but now looks like a fixture in the 2022 rotation. While not a highly-touted arm, Ober has vaulted himself into the Twins plans. Who could be the next Bailey Ober in 2022? There appear to be plenty of innings to go around in 2022. While we hope to see prospects such as Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran debut, Bailey Ober is proof that it isn’t always the shiny top prospect that storms into the Major Leagues. The Twins have a few arms in the minors who could be a pleasant surprise to the MLB club next season. Drew Strotman - Twins MLB.com Ranking: 17 The less-hyped player in the Nelson Cruz return this summer, Strotman went straight to St. Paul upon his arrival where it appears he’ll finish his season. Once a strong control pitcher, Strotman has had a walk rate over 12% this year. The Twins may be able to attribute this to his 2018 Tommy John surgery and inability to knock off the last of the rust with the lack of a 2020 season. Still, Strotman has plenty to like. He can hit the mid-90s as a starter with his best offering being a cutter with a decent curveball to pair with it. He was striking out nearly 25% of his hitters faced with a mid-3s ERA with Tampa’s AAA team in Durham before struggling across the board with the Saints, possibly a result of him hitting an innings wall in his first full season back. Strotman will be 25 next season and already possesses a 40-man roster spot. He’s in the most convenient spot of all three of these pitchers to get one of the first calls next season, especially if he comes out on fire to open the season. Cole Sands - Twins MLB.com Ranking: 19 Sands has spent 2021 exclusively at AA after a brief debut there in 2019. Despite his 10.4% walk rate this year, he’s long had the reputation as a strike-thrower, never before walking more than 6.3% of hitters. It’s a safe bet on Sands regaining that control which would bode well for his future considering he’s maintained a strikeout rate of 30% in 2021. Sands has also limited the long ball in his minor league career. 2021 is his career-worst with a still-respectable 0.93 HR/9. With a 2.93 ERA at AA this year, Sands will get the call to the next level sooner rather than later. At that point, his high floor for strikeouts, low walk totals and limiting homers puts him in a great spot to get an opportunity when the Twins need innings filled in 2022. It’s the same baseline of skills that Bailey Ober used to get to the big leagues. Chris Vallimont - Twins MLB.com Ranking: 21 In some ways, 2021 has been a disappointment for Chris Vallimont who’s sporting a 6.00 ERA at the AA level through 78 innings. He hadn’t shown a huge control problem prior to this year but has walked 14.4% of batters faced. He used to limit homers but has allowed a 1.27 per 9 innings this year. Still, that 6.00 ERA indicates a bit of bad luck according to his 4.40 FIP and 4.62 xFIP. Vallimont still shows a strong ability to strike out opponents, and has done so at a 32.1% rate. If he can return to his career norms in terms of walks and homers allowed, he could move aggressively to the MLB level as he’ll be 25 to begin 2022. He seems to have the raw stuff to dominate hitters if he can manage to iron out some kinks. If there’s one thing we can expect from the pitching staff next season, it’s that there will be plenty of opportunities. Bailey Ober appears to be a diamond in the rough, thrown into a trial by fire due to a pitching staff that completely turned over by season’s end. Could one of these three be the next development arm to take this route to success? Could it be one not listed here? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins brass has continued to hold the position that the team intends to compete in 2022. Standing in their way is one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in 2021. Competing in 2022 will take a major rebound, but what might that rebound look like? The Twins had a tall order when it came to the 2022 pitching staff even when Jose Berrios and Kenta Maeda were slotted into the first two spots. Berrios has since been traded and we’ve received word that Maeda has an ominous elbow injury and will have exploratory surgery next week which could turn into Tommy John. Kenta Maeda That brings us to the number one factor in the Twins rotation rebuild in 2022: Kenta Maeda needs to be anchoring it. The Twins can’t really affect whether Maeda is healthy and at this point it appears him being relied on in 2022 is a long shot, but not having a single veteran arm returning creates a scenario in which some might call it nearly impossible to field a reliable 1-5. Even if Maeda isn’t the bona fide ace we hoped, having him at 2 or 3 in the rotation would at least give the Twins something to work with. Without Maeda, the rotation troubles likely become too much to recover from. Build From Within There’s no doubt that the Falvey/Levine pitching pipeline is growing ever closer to MLB ready and some of it has already arrived. Bailey Ober is likely a favorite to shore up the rotation on Opening Day after he put up an ERA around 4.00 in his first 68 innings. Griffin Jax will likely finish the season in the rotation, and Randy Dobnak should be back in the rotation before year’s end. Joe Ryan may be up in short order as well. Additionally, the Twins do have Duran and Winder at the AAA level with newly-acquired Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands and Jordan Balazovic at AA. The issue with using internal options is it largely depends on youth, much of which hasn’t even pitched in the majors yet. For as talented as many of the Twins young arms might be, there’s no telling how they’ll perform in their first taste of the big leagues. Furthermore, the Twins simply won’t let any of these young arms throw enough innings to take the ball every fifth day through season’s end even if they are effective. Duran threw over 100 innings in 2019, had 2020 off, and has thrown 16 innings this season. Winder followed a similar trend and has thrown 72 innings this season. Bailey Ober, whose fans typically express their disgust with his limited innings in starts, leads this group with 84 innings in 2021. It would be simply shocking to see any of these young arms reach even 150 innings in 2022. Some innings will be filled internally, but it will likely take some of them debuting down the stretch rather than being leaned on throughout the entire season. Outside Help The Twins are going to have a heavy offseason of trying to acquire pitching on the free agent and hopefully trade market. Even coming into this year they preferred to spend $10m on a combination of Happ and Shoemaker to take up two spots rather than spending on a higher quality arm and dedicating a rotation spot to a young arm like Dobnak. Picking up two free agent starters with three already penciled in in 2021 hints that the Twins will likely pursue three to four starting pitchers this winter at the very least. There are some high level free agent arms available this offseason, but it’s hard to see the Twins pursuing any of them. Spending $15-20m on one single pitcher would limit the Twins ability to effectively fill 3-4 other rotation spots. Instead the Twins will likely have to fill their rotation with middling arms that they can try to tweak and unlock something with. Their rotation’s success will likely have everything to do with their ability to effectively identify some under the radar arms and make the necessary tweaks. So essentially the Twins are relying on a miracle when it comes to Maeda and their effectiveness in bringing in outside options when it comes to their pitching rebound. They’ll certainly be counting on some younger pitchers contributing, but they’re almost certainly going to try to make them complementary pieces. In short, the Twins are in a difficult spot no matter how you spin it. They’re likely going to be headed into 2022 with either four or five starting pitchers in the rotation that weren’t there on Opening Day 2021. That’s an incredibly steep mountain to climb for any front office trying to compete, let alone one that missed on nearly every pitching decision they made just last winter. It’s no fun being negative, but 2022 may be a year to just sit back and enjoy whatever positives shake out with this pitching staff rather than having soaring expectations. There will be a fair share of excitement along the way, but it may be wise for Twins fans to temper expectations. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins might have a bit of a 40 man roster crunch in 2022. The Rule 5 eligible players are one consideration, but the six players on the 60 day IL are another. Not all of these players should necessarily be back. The 60-Day IL allows teams to stash an injured player away without holding a 40 man spot. The Twins have utilized this six times this season in the way of four pitchers and two hitters. With young players needing 40 man roster spots to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this winter, it’s worth revisiting these players on a case-by-case basis. Alex Kirilloff This is probably the easiest one. The Twins former top prospect should be back with a healthy wrist by Opening Day and likely penciled in at first base. There isn’t anything that would change the Twins minds. Randy Dobnak Despite a nightmare season in which Dobnak put up a 7.83 ERA in 43 innings, he’s an easy add after the Twins extended him through 2026 on a very team-friendly deal. Regarding his role, it’s anyone’s guess at this point how the Twins plan to use him, but he’s been throwing bullpens recently and could even return from a finger injury before the end of 2021. The Twins can’t cut Dobnak loose given their commitment, not to mention his recent success in the MLB. Devin Smeltzer Smeltzer only threw 4 2/3 innings without allowing a run before being put on the IL with an elbow injury. His 2022 may largely depend on the nature of his injury and whether his health can be counted on. Perhaps his lack of ceiling may give the Twins pause, but he has shown to be a competent Major League pitcher and perhaps deserves a little bit of run in a bullpen role. If he’s ready to pitch for opening day in 2022, I’d expect to see Smeltzer get one more look. Edwar Colina Colina got shelled in his lone MLB appearance in 2020 but boasts what some call the best slider in the Twins system to go along with his high-90s fastball. Colina was an arm many were excited to see get some real run this year before he underwent elbow surgery which ended his season before it began. As the Twins look to rebuild a bullpen in 2022, it’s hard to imagine them not gambling on the upside of Edwar Colina assuming his injury appears to be recovering as expected. Cody Stashak It’s possible Stashak was dealing with his back injury longer than the Twins knew, but it was a bit surprising to see him get as much of an opportunity as he did in 2021. With a 91 mph fastball, Stashak’s skillset revolved around his ability to limit walks when he debuted in 2019 which made his 13.3% walk rate this year all the more unacceptable. He upped his strikeout rate to nearly 35% at the expense of every other skill a pitcher could have as he finished with a 6.89 ERA. Stashak will be 28 next year and his ceiling is probably just an okay middle reliever which may make him an easy roster spot to dedicate to protecting another player from the Rule 5 draft. Kyle Garlick Garlick looked like the Twins best offseason acquisition for awhile and slashed .232/.280/.465 before being shut down with a sports hernia. Garlick does one thing well and that’s mash lefties, something the Twins were unable to set him up for consistently as injuries piled up. Unfortunately for Garlick, the Twins just don’t have a lot to gain from keeping a defensively-challenged 30-year-old with such a niche skillset. It’s hard to see the Twins not parting ways with Garlick unfortunately. It’s easy to look at this list of players who haven’t been contributing for quite some time and forget about them, but the Twins do have some solid players coming back off injury next year. The tricky part is trying to balance the roster on who is worthy of a return as they try and protect the necessary players to avoid another Akil Baddoo situation. Should any more of these six be definitively kept or let go this winter? Let us know below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins pulled off quite the swap to acquire two top 100 prospects for Jose Berrios at the deadline in Simeon Woods-Richardson and Austin Martin. In the case of the latter, however, the front office saw an opportunity to buy at reduced cost and took advantage. Austin Martin is a highly-regarded prospect and has been since well before he was drafted 5th overall by Toronto in 2020. Many evaluators even saw Martin as the top hitter of the entire draft. He was arguably the most talented prospect to change jerseys at this year’s deadline as well. Making it all the more incredible is the Twins not only received Martin in their Berrios deal, but also another top 100 prospect in right handed pitcher Simeon Woods-Richardson. It seemed too good to be true at the time, and it may be worthwhile to consider how the Twins talked the Blue Jays into parting with a player who was drafted 5th overall just a year ago. Contact Concerns In his senior season at Vanderbilt, Austin Martin struck out just twice in 69 plate appearances against some of the best collegiate pitching in the country. It set him apart from the typical college masher as a savant when it came to bat-to-ball skills. Such a skillset comes with a high floor which is likely why Toronto was aggressive enough to assign Martin to AA in his professional debut in 2021. His 2021 season hasn’t been a complete disaster, but it has raised some eyebrows. Martin has struck out over 20% of the time which was an outcome not many scouts saw coming. Some attribute it to his passive approach which while leading him to a near 15% walk rate, may also get him unnecessarily deep into counts that he can’t battle his way out of. Martin may need to find a happy medium between drawing his walks and being just aggressive enough to take advantage of hittable pitches early in counts. Impacting the Baseball: You typically hear of prospects “flashing plus power”, whereas Martin has been cited to flash average power. Given his eye at the plate and impressive bat-to-ball skills, the Twins won’t need him to become a 40 home run hitter in order to be a success. That being said, his .383 slugging % in 2021 paired with an 8 mph drop in average exit velocity has been enough to cause worry among some scouts. It’s easier to develop power as a player ages than it is elite contact ability, and the Twins will be counting on Martin to do so to some extent as he continues to inch closer to the Major League level. Defensive Future: By almost all accounts, Martin is not the Twins shortstop of the future. While athletic and soft handed, his arm may be lacking for the most important position in the infield. While listed as a shortstop, he played third base for much of his senior year before being moved to center field due to throwing issues by year’s end. Scouts have yet to come to much of a conclusion in regards to Austin Martin the center fielder. The Twins will surely get a closer look at their new top two prospect at shortstop, but don’t be surprised to see them pivot to trying him as an heir to the center field position in the case of a Buxton departure. A player of such a skillset just doesn’t slot in well to the traditionally power-heavy corner positions in the outfield. Such a lack of clarity on a defensive future is enough to rub some of the prospect shine away on a 22 year old. Austin Martin is certainly an incredibly exciting prospect and one that isn’t too far off from the Majors in all likelihood. There are further questions that have been raised in the last year about his ceiling however that without a doubt contributed to the Twins ability to receive both him and a highly-regarded pitching prospect. The front office admitted they were enormous fans of Martin during the 2020 draft but had no shot at drafting him. While his stock hasn’t crashed, Falvine and company have bought relatively low on a prospect that caught their eye a year ago and now have the opportunity to develop a possible cornerstone of the next great Minnesota Twins team. Can the Twins come out on the winning end of the gamble they made on trading away their home grown ace? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It’s easy to feel hopeless about the Twins pitching staff and bullpen in particular after such an abysmal 2021. There may be help on the way, however. A trio of arms in St. Paul just might be worth holding out hope for 2022. Some possible solutions to the rotation were found with the return from the Nelson Cruz trade on Thursday. Still, the front office has their work cut out for them to improve the pitching staff as a whole. More trades are surely on the way and a fair share of the available payroll will likely be spent on arms. There are three relievers at AAA however who we may see by season’s end that could put a massive patch in the sinking ship that is this pitching staff. Ian Hamilton Nick summarized just about every reason to have hope for Hamilton in one tweet. Hamilton was drafted in the 11th round in 2016 and quickly proved to be an exciting up and coming bullpen arm in the White Sox system. Unfortunately Hamilton’s career was thrown off course by two freak accidents. He struggled thereafter and eventually bounce around waiver claims before the Twins claimed him (and then successfully DFAd him) this spring. Hamilton has spent the entire season in St. Paul which is by no means an indicator of his effectiveness. Instead, it almost seems like the Twins are developing the 26-year-old as if he was a prospect as he weathers his first full season of professional baseball since 2018. This plan appears to have paid dividends, as Hamilton has posted a 34% K rate with a 0.58 HR/9 so far and has sorted out his early season walk issues. He should get a chance by season’s end to showcase his high 90s fastball at Target Field in an attempt to earn a place for 2022. Yennier Cano Signed in 2019 as an international free agent out of Cuba, Cano is a bit different than most prospects in the Twins top 30 as he’s 27 years old. Cano has moved a bit more slowly through the system than expected when he was signed, but he appears to be on the precipice of the Major Leagues after debuting at AA ball this year and getting called up to St. Paul a few weeks ago. Cano got hit around a bit in his AAA debut allowing three Earned Runs in 1 2/3 innings. He’s settled down since then, dropping his ERA to 4.50 with a 3.05 FIP. He’s struck out 28.4% of the hitters he’s faced. He has a pitch mix that profiles extremely well with a mid 90s fastball to go with a great slider and a splitter to equalize left-handed hitters. It’s honestly a bit surprising that Cano hasn’t received The Call already, but it’s easy to foresee him in Minneapolis very soon. Jovani Moran Moran was Cano’s partner in crime when it came to terrorizing opposing lineups out of the AA bullpen to start the year. Moran has long had the reputation of having nasty stuff but has struggled with control thus far in his career. After having 14% walk rates at both levels in 2019, it was encouraging even to see those numbers drop to 10% at AA to start the season. Moran is a left-handed pitcher with a low-to-mid 90s fastball, but his changeup is likely one of the best the Twins system has seen since Johan Santana as Lucas points out (tweet above). The pitch allows him not only to avoid big lefty/righty splits, but is also his go-to weapon for swings and misses. He seems to have the right idea, as he’s struck out 46% of AA hitters and 44.4% of AAA hitters thus far. His late arrival to AAA makes him a bit more questionable to debut with the Twins this season, but it’s certainly a possibility depending on how the trade deadline shakes out. Skepticism is warranted after this season, but it’s been a long time since the Twins in particular have developed arms with such high octane, can’t miss stuff. While far from a sure thing, we should get a look at at least a few of them this year. At the very least it’s a bit of excitement in what will be an inconsequential finish to 2021. At best, we just might get a glimpse into a more effective stable of arms for 2022. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Jorge Polanco looked to be on the precipice of irrelevancy through the first month or so of the 2021 season after a train wreck 2020. Once looking like a future cornerstone, the shortstop appeared to have tumbled into questionable territory. We may have been too quick to judge. In 2019, the Twins signed Jorge Polanco to a five-year $25.75 million deal with options for 2024 and 2025. Up to this point, Polanco was already well worth his team-friendly deal with his slash line of .275/.333/.434. Even coming back from an 80-game suspension for a banned substance, Polanco appeared to be a steady bat the Twins could rely on for the next five years. In 2019, however, Polanco rewarded the Twins' show of faith with more than they ever could have expected. Polanco was the starting shortstop in the All-Star Game for the American League. Polanco was a dynamic player in the best lineup in the AL and finished the season with a 120 wRC+. TwinsDaily cited Polanco as the Twins most valuable asset following the season, and for good reason. While questions lingered regarding Polanco’s long-term defense, he looked to be an offensive force for years to come. In retrospect, Polanco’s offseason ankle surgery probably shouldn’t have been taken so lightly. In a season where it became clear the Bomba Squad was a one-year deal, Polanco was simply putrid on offense. Slashing .258/.304/.354, Polanco was 20% below a league average hitter during the 2020 season. After being a lock near the top of the lineup, Polanco finished the season shoring up the bottom of the order. It was plenty easy to call the 2020 season a one off, but Polanco followed it up by actually being worse to begin 2021. Through the end of April, Polanco was hitting just .209/.267/.286. He was still regularly showing off the half-swing that indicated his ongoing ankle issues. Then came May. Since the turn of the calendar, Polanco has been even better than the All-Star version of himself. His .270/.337/.487 line was 24% above league average. His wRC+ has shot up from 53 to 105. In addition to his offensive rebound, Polanco also appears to be acclimating to his new second base role well. He’s pegged for -1 Outs Above Average per Statcast and has been worth 1 Defensive Run Saved per Fangraphs. After a bit of an adjustment period, Polanco has really appeared to settle into what will probably be the position he fills for the entirety of his Twins career. It would have been easy to say “It’s just 100 or so games” and call it a cold streak, but it was much more difficult to do so with Polanco’s years-long ankle injury. It was well in bounds to wonder at some point if Polanco was bound for a bench or platoon role which would have left the Twins looking for a future second baseman while already having to address so many issues after this season. That makes Polanco’s turnaround all the more incredible. Polanco may not be the most valuable of the Twins' assets anymore with Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach looking like a formidable young duo. That being said, you can argue that Polanco has lifted himself back up to the top of the list of what many believed to be the Twins’ core headed into 2021. The Twins will need to address plenty this offseason from pitching to shortstop to center field depth. At second base, however, it appears the gamble they made two years ago on a steady hitter stretched at his shortstop position will continue paying off. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Jorge Alcala had steadily built up status after being acquired for Ryan Pressly and transitioning to the bullpen. Heading into 2021, he was expected to be one of the better relievers in the Twins bullpen. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out that way at all. The 6-foot-2 Jorge Alcala has fared reasonably well in his career in terms of results as he’s sporting a 3.70 ERA. Indicators don’t paint nearly as kind a picture, however, as his FIP is nearly a full run higher, signaling a bit of luck along the way. 2021 has been far from lucky as Alcala has been worth -0.4 Wins Above Replacement per Fangraphs. Despite his high-90s fastball and highly-touted slider, Alcala’s strikeout rate has dropped from 28.7% in 2020 to 22.4% in 2021 which has led to his indicators spiraling out of control. So what’s happened to the high-upside arm the Twins received in the Ryan Pressly trade? As is the case with all pitchers who come up, the league has likely put together a book on what Alcala has to offer. In his case, this includes largely a fastball-slider combo. Relievers in particular can sometimes get by with two pitches but doing so typically requires both of the pitches performing at an elite level. When it comes to Alcala, his slider is effective enough weighing in at a 2.8 pitch value per Fangraphs and garnering a 34.7% whiff rate. His fastball, however, has been a net negative on the season with a -0.6 pitch value. The pitch has allowed a 91 mph exit velocity on the 2021 season and has allowed four home runs. (five if you count what shows up as a two seamer on Baseball Savant). Fastball command seems to be a factor in Alcala’s fastball turning in negative value, as even though he’s decreased his walk rate in 2021, his heater clearly still finds the heart of the plate too often. The other factor at play is that his mistake pitches down the middle of the plate could possibly skate by more often if he had another offering. Luckily, Alcala has started showing a change up a bit more. Alcala’s used the pitch 13% of the time so far this year as he looks to add it as a regular part of his repertoire. Early returns aren’t too shabby. The pitch has only allowed a .200 batting average and .400 slugging percentage. Not only would further development of the pitch be big to throw any given batter off the trail of his struggling fastball, but it would be an equalizer against left handed hitters, who have an OPS of .839 against him on the year. 2021 has been a huge step back for Alcala as he’s had plenty of opportunity but failed to capitalize. That said, he’s still 25 years old and likely to get plenty of innings this season to build for 2022 and beyond. He's already showing some adjustments that could pay dividends with just a bit more exposure. Alcala was an arm the Twins thought of highly at the time of his acquisition, and he still has plenty of time to make good on their initial assessment. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Many thought Max Kepler reached a new baseline in a breakout 2019. Two disappointing years later however it’s become clear that 2019 was a mirage. The clock is ticking on the Twins right fielder. What does the future hold for Max Kepler? Kepler’s career can be split into three parts. One was his 2019 season where he led the Twins in fWAR and punished pitchers no matter their handedness. He slashed a fantastic .252/.336/.519. Unfortunately this stretch lasted all of 596 plate appearances. The other two parts are the near 2000 plate appearances of just not being anything too special surrounding that 2019. He was 7% above the league average hitter in 2020, but this was just the 2nd of his seven seasons in the MLB where he was even league average at the plate. Kepler has basically always held his own against right handed pitching, but it’s against lefties that really brings him down. In his career he’s slashed .214/.284/.359 against southpaws, 29% below league average. Also keep in mind that those numbers are significantly inflated by his one fantastic season in 2019 where he was 30% above league average against lefties. At this point we have about three years prior to that performance and plenty of data compiled since to say that Max Kepler is a terrible hitter against left handed pitching. Expecting anything other than an out every time he takes an at bat in those matchups is a mistake. So what can the Twins do with Max Kepler? He’s not a bad player but his usage everyday regardless of matchups significantly hurts his production and the team’s success. Find the Right Trade Kepler is still a good defender in the corner according to his 80th percentile rating in Outs Above Average. He’s also been 12% above league average against right handed pitching in his career. It’s entirely possible that there’s a team out there who sees these bright spots as well as his affordability and actually makes a decent offer on the trade market. Despite the amount of injuries the outfield has had this season, the Twins system as a whole has incredible depth in the corner outfield, especially of the left handed variety. On the big league club alone the Twins have Kirilloff, Larnach and Arraez. Kepler won’t bring in the haul he once would have, but finding a decent package based on what he still does well could be a great option for the Twins to try to shake up a roster that’s been incredibly disappointing. Move to a Platoon This season may be lost but the next time the Twins are looking to compete it’s really difficult to make a case that Kepler adds to those plans while he’s taking at bats against left handed pitching. They may give him the rest of the season but if they want to keep Kepler around it should come with the condition that a right handed hitting corner outfielder is brought in to platoon with him. So far Kirilloff and Larnach appear to be avoiding the biggest flaw in Kepler’s game, but the Twins are still very left handed heavy in the outfield. Bringing a right handed bat into the mix with the intention of sitting Kepler against lefties and occasionally one of the young left handers would likely be an all around better situation. I once found Kepler to be one of the most exciting players on the Twins when thinking about his future. At 28 years old however it’s become far too obvious that he’s not a future star and likely shouldn’t be thought of as one of the “core” pieces of the next great Twins team. He’s a solid player who can succeed in specific situations if you manage around his shortcomings to get him there. It’s time for big changes. Max Kepler is not an everyday difference maker in this Twins lineup, and it’s time they stop treating him that way. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article