Cody Pirkl

Prospects flame out every year in baseball. It’s just the nature of the game. From organizational depth to top prospects, no young player’s impact is guaranteed. Three former top Twins prospects have particularly important seasons on the horizon in 2023. Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson, Twins Daily The Twins have three prospects who have tailed off in recent seasons after sitting relatively high in the organizational rankings. Though they don’t share much in regards to their positions or skills, all three have reached a point in their careers where 2023 may reach “make or break” status. Keoni Cavaco The Twins were aiming for upside in 2019 when they selected Cavaco 13th overall, and Cavaco had shot up draft boards due to a stellar 2019 high school season. His raw tools were evident just by watching him connect with the baseball and run the bases. Unfortunately for the Twins, those tools just haven’t translated to professional baseball yet. Cavaco hasn’t progressed above Low-A ball thus far. At age 21, that’s not a huge red flag, as patience is key with high school draft picks. In this case, Cavaco hasn’t done much to force the issue. In his three seasons, he’s failed to reach even league-average offensive output (though this totals just under 800 plate appearances). His 30%+ strikeout rate in each season has not been made up in the on base or slugging department, as he has yet to post an OPS above .633. Cavaco also moved off of shortstop in 2022 to third base, a premium offensive position. He’s tumbled down prospect rankings for some time, but his 2023 season is very important if the 21 year old wants to keep himself in the conversation for the team’s future plans. Aaron Sabato Unlike Cavaco, Aaron Sabato was seen as more of a “safe” pick, though lacking upside because of his build and defensive profile. After simply dominating in two college seasons at North Carolina, the Twins saw a chance to grab a premium bat that could make all other questions irrelevant. The adjustment from college to professional baseball has been difficult thus far. Sabato has flashed the offensive potential the Twins drafted, as he’s been above league average in A and A+ ball. He’s been extremely streaky, and while his on base ability and power continue to carry him, making contact continues to be an issue. Batting average has become far from the standard for valuable offensive players, but Sabato hit .226 in High-A ball for most of 2022 and struggled mightily hitting .179 in his first taste of Double-A action. His strikeout rate has consistently been above 30%. Twins fans know all too well that there’s a point of diminishing returns when it comes to things like on base ability and power making up for average. Sabato walking that tightrope in the low minors raises red flags. With little to no defensive versatility, Sabato’s bat has to carry him in 2023. The power and on base ability appear to be real. The missing piece of the puzzle is the consistency, particularly with contact. If Sabato can find it in 2023, he’ll shoot up through the minors. If not, his prospect status will continue to plummet. Jordan Balazovic Fans have been hearing about Jordan Balazovic for years and continue to do so. Unfortunately it’s been for all the wrong reasons lately. After his prospect stock soared to new heights from 2019 through 2021, it’s all been downhill. While dealing with nagging injuries in 2022, Balazovic got absolutely crushed at Triple-A to the tune of a 7.39 ERA. A good final month improved his numbers and offered hope, but the damage to his prospect status was done. Balazovic had major questions headed into this spring. This of course was before news dropped that Balazovic would be missing time due to an off-field altercation resulting in a broken jaw. Right at the beginning of likely the most important season of his professional career, Balazovic will be playing from behind because of off field choices, and the Twins do not seem pleased in the slightest. In 2023, Jordan Balazovic not only has to make a complete 180 on the field production wise, but it appears he has to win back the trust of the organization that drafted him out of high school in 2016. Time is becoming a factor not because of his age, but because he now takes up a spot on the 40 man roster. As a team that churns through their roster as the Twins do, another year of struggles from Balazovic would put both parties in a difficult situation. It’s safe to say all three names listed have the talent to bounce back in a big way in 2023, and just some minor changes could go a long way. Are there any other prospects coming up on a make or break 2023? Do you agree with the three listed? Let us know below. View full article

A pair of Twins pitchers ventured outside the organization this winter for their offseason training. Now that we’re finding out a bit more of what they’d been working on, what could it mean for 2023? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list. Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans. Tyler Mahle The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle. Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters. From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud. Joe Ryan After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter. For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch. Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well. Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement. Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels. View full article

News has started to trickle in from Spring Training as we start to learn more about the Twins plans for players in 2023. One bit of news that’s dropped is particularly interesting regarding their depth of young pitchers. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports For once, the Twins have some depth to their pitching staff with a mix of holdovers and younger arms in both the rotation and the bullpen. After a 2022 in which they turned Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax from starters to impact relievers, many have become interested in what struggling starting pitching prospect could be the next to follow that path. There are plenty of candidates to be fair. For now however, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll see those plans play out immediately. Such a small piece of news but so much to draw from it. Assuming health, Bailey Ober appears to be headed for Triple-A to begin 2023 due to the MLB rotation depth. For once, however, the Triple-A rotation will be tons of fun with names such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Jordan Balazovic behind him. It’s going to be a treat to attend CHS Field this summer to see some legitimate young arms throwing every day. With only limited spots in the Saints rotation, the Twins immediate plans to keep everyone starting is interesting. Not being too quick to transition starters into the bullpen is good practice. Especially considering the health questions in the Twins rotation, it’s good to make sure there are as many arms as possible to step in if things go south. For now, it appears the last spot in St. Paul is a three-way battle with names such as Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. With a few injuries this spring, those three options for the #5 spot in St. Paul could all find themselves starting games consistently. It may quickly become an issue that works itself out. It’s also just much easier to transition a pitcher from a starter to a reliever in a hurry than it is vice versa If the Twins health holds through the spring and they reconsider a few of their young arms, they could switch them over in no time as they did with Sands and Henriquez down the stretch in 2022. It may not have them as ready to relieve as they would be had they been preparing from Day 1, but some guys are able to flip the switch very quickly. Not committing young arms to those spots also opens up a few more possibilities. The Twins may not have as much Opening Day bullpen depth with all of these young arms remaining starters, but they can go and get external depth to build up even more. As of February 15, players such as Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack can all be put on the 60-Day IL, opening 40-man spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins choose to fill these spots, but it’s probably safe to bet on one addition to the bullpen at the very least. The reliever market has been nearly bare for some time now, but a few fits still exist. They’ve already been linked to Chaska native Brad Hand, who’s far from the bullpen ace he once was but has continued to limit hard contact. Several other arms remain that they could take fliers on such as Will Smith or Trevor Rosenthal. They’re also due for their yearly waiver claim that makes the Opening Day roster. If they have any moves left to make, it’s easy to see at least one of them being a reliever because of the position-player logjam, and the Twins have at least two 40-man spots to fill if they feel inclined to make an addition. It also may be too early to rule out a trade. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely to hold onto Max Kepler, but this could easily be posturing on the Twins part. The left-handed hitting outfield depth is to a point where it can be argued that it doesn’t make sense. They aren’t trading recently-signed Joey Gallo, and Trevor Larnach’s value is likely at a low point despite a hope that he can still become an impact hitter to pair with the plus defense that graded out in 2022. This still leaves Kepler as the likeliest player shipped out if a trade is made. As a "two-ish" win player who gets most of his value from defense at this point, he’s certainly a candidate to be sent out in a trade involving a reliever. The Twins are left with a non-obvious answer for the next man up if one of the current MLB bullpen arms misses time. The Triple-A bullpen likely won’t have a young, obvious option to get the call if needed early in the season, although any acquisitions would likely push Jovani Moran into that spot once again (to this writer’s exhaustion). It’s likely that as the year goes on, we start to see some of these pitchers transition into the bullpen depending on the Twins MLB roster needs and how the young arms perform in the rotation. Sands is noted as the closest one to making this switch after struggling all-around last season. Henriquez got hit far too hard as a Triple-A starter in 2022. Winder’s shoulder appears to be a chronic issue at this point. If any of these issues persist, look for the Twins to pivot quickly off of their preseason plans to keep these arms in the rotation. By season’s end, we’ll likely be seeing a few of them making appearances out of the bullpen. View full article

In my opinion he showed enough last year to be the last guy in the bullpen of a competing team. His numbers are also weighed down heavily by the last two months where he appears to have been trying to work a brand new pitch into his second most used offering which is tough. Even if he's a low to mid 4s ERA guy that's a decent win for someone snagged off waivers. With his stuff there's always the possibility he can be even better though.

Once again the Twins have essentially foregone any bullpen upgrades this offseason. With young arms hopefully nearing, this choice could turn out to be justified. One low profile reliever could factor into the equation too. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today Trevor Megill could be called a relative success when compared to the other acquisitions the Twins made to the 2022 bullpen. Megill debuted with the Cubs in 2021 but was DFAd after the season. The Twins claimed him and soon after they DFAd him and he was outrighted to Triple-A. Megill found his way onto the roster in late May. He returned to the Saints for one appearance in early July but was able to stick with the big-league club for the remainder of the season. He may remain there as we head into the 2023 campaign. Megill threw 45 innings with a 4.80 ERA. He struck out over a batter per inning, kept walks to a respectable level and was incredibly stingy in the longball department. This led to FIP and xFIP painting the picture of a mid to low 3s ERA reliever, even if xERA disagreed. Averaging 98 mph on the fastball, the raw stuff alone was probably enough to justify Megill remaining in a low-leverage role throughout the season. After bouncing around a few organizations with little MLB experience, some may assume that at 28, Megill may not have much development left. But what if they were wrong? For much of the season, Megill was a two-pitch pitcher. Plenty of relievers get by on a limited repertoire, but typically one of their pitches are an equalizer against same-handed hitters. Megill, who threw almost exclusively a high 90s fastball and a big overhand curve, didn’t have such a repertoire. In fact, Megill performed significantly better against left-handed hitters than right. His strikeout-to-walk rate was three times higher against lefties than righties. His OPS against was nearly .150 points lower. He was actually more of a lefty specialist, and a dominant one at that. Still though, there isn’t much reason that Megill shouldn’t be getting right-handed hitters out consistently. The Twins undoubtedly took note of this along the way, as Megill started throwing a pitch that was classified as a slider in August around 27% of the time, and this became his second-most used pitch for the final two months of the season. It’s easy to assume that the Twins were trying to provide Megill with a pitch to match up better against right-handed hitters, as any kind of improvement in that department would have raised Megill’s game to a whole new level. Their midseason attempt to make an adjustment doesn’t show up well on paper with Megill posting his worst two months of the season with this new pitch, but it’s likely been a focal point of his offseason and could have much better results come spring. Another issue with Megill is that for all of the spin and velocity he gets on his fastball, it’s one of his most-hittable pitches. Opponents hit nearly .300 on the pitch, and while they didn’t slug well against it, the expected numbers say Megill got lucky. Looking at where he threw his heater gives an obvious answer as to what’s going on here. Averaging 98 mph is a huge plus for Megill, but the days of even a triple-digit fastball overpowering lineups are gone. Hitters were bound to get around on it every so often, and when they did, the fastball was often right where they could drive it. We’ve seen the Twins fix this with pitchers such as Tyler Duffey. Dropping the fastball at the top of the zone consistently keeps it out of the danger zone and allows it to play up a few miles per hour. It worked with Tyler Duffey working low-to-mid 90s. For Megill, it may make the pitch unhittable if he has the command to make a change. It’s possible that Megill remains the low-leverage middle reliever he was in 2022. The fact that he remains on the roster, and the Twins didn’t push hard to replace him, however, hopefully means that they have hopes that he has more ceiling to reach and a plan to get him there. They began the process midseason in 2022 but with a full offseason to develop a new pitch, Megill could wind up with a devastating pitch to pair with his high-octane fastball against right-handed hitters. In 2023, Trevor Megill could factor into the bullpen mix in a surprisingly big way. Do you agree? View full article

Tyler Mahle has become a bit of an afterthought when considering the team’s success in 2023. Given his season-ending injury, this may be fair. It’s easy to forget, however, that if Tyler Mahle is healthy, he could make a huge impact. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Twins would probably like a redo on the Tyler Mahle trade at this point given how 2022 ended up. They paid a premium for pitching help at the deadline, shipping out three solid prospects in Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to try to hold onto first place in the AL Central. The Twins would get just 16 1/3 innings from Mahle who immediately wound up on the IL with shoulder issues. It’s impossible to argue that his stock has dropped precipitously, likely to the point where had Mahle remained in Cincinnati, an offseason trade likely wouldn’t even be on the table for teams across the league. Despite Mahle’s remaining questions on the shoulder, he still has an entire season to make good on the Twins investment. Though not what they were focused on when they acquired the right-hander last summer, 2023 could easily turn a 180 on the perception of that trade. People seem to forget that Tyler Mahle was blossoming into a very good pitcher prior to injury. Some might argue that he had already emerged as a top of the rotation option. After a few years of struggles, Mahle quietly broke out in the shortened 2020 season. In just under 50 innings pitched, he posted a near 30% K rate and a 3.59 ERA which was supported by his peripherals. His 1.1 Fangraphs WAR projected out to a 3+ win pitcher. The Twins leader by this measure in 2023 was Sonny Gray with 2.4 WAR. Mahle carried his success over to 2021, setting a career high in innings with 180 and posting a 3.75 ERA and nearing the 4 WAR mark. In 2022 Mahle got off to a rough start with an ERA over 6.00 in the first month, but was otherwise on track to finish as the same level of pitcher down the stretch. In regard to his skill set when on the mound, the Twins had good reason to pay up for him, as he’s rock solid as is and may have some untouched ceiling from his days in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of baseball's premier offensive stadiums, he’s been a premium starting pitcher. The big blemish in his profile has always been the longball, which should surprise no one as Cincinnati’s park has ranked top 3 in homers in each of the last three seasons. By Statcast measures, the 18 expected homers allowed by Mahle in Cincinnati’s ballpark in 2023 drops all the way down to 11 at Target Field. Not only can we expect a healthy Tyler Mahle to post a mid to high 3s ERA when he’s on the mound, it’s incredibly easy to dream of his game finding another level just by a few more fly balls staying in the park. The Twins current construction of their roster also points to further improvement in Tyler Mahle’s game. As is the case with most pitchers who allow a healthy amount of homers, a majority of balls in play off of him are hit in the air. In 2022 Mahle had a 46.8% fly ball rate. The Twins would love to see a repeat given the depth of defensive outfield options on the roster including Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor etc. Not only should Target Field keep a few more homers in the ballpark, but it’s easy to see a few more singles and extra base hits finding the glove with how the Twins have put together their outfield. It’s been interesting to see references to a solid Twins rotation with limited mention of Tyler Mahle. His end to 2022 was disappointing and left a lot of question marks, but nothing was acutely wrong with his then ailing shoulder. On one hand this could be bad news as there’s nothing specific to fix, but on the other he’s had an offseason to correct the issue and there would likely be more reason to worry had the fix been something like shoulder surgery. Mahle is certainly a risk to have a recurring injury, but why does his shoulder get so much more attention than Sonny Gray’s rash of ailments that kept him from reaching even 120 innings? Recently acquired Pablo López has an even more colorful history of shoulder injuries, and while he reached 180 innings in 2022, he noticeably was not the same pitcher in the second half as he wore down. At the very least, Mahle is on the same level skill wise as these pitchers, and it can be argued that he’s shown more consistency and has a better argument to show further improvement. The first step, as is the case with so many players on the Twins roster, is health for Tyler Mahle. If he provides us with a favorable answer, he’s going to be one of the biggest contributors to a pitching staff that desperately needs a rebound season. Do you agree? View full article

I definitely agree, he's a far better player than Gallo or Kepler and is much more valuable. He isn't at a make or break point in his career, my point is he's nearing the make or break point of his Twins tenure. I just can't find any reason to believe they won't give him the Arraez treatment if his defense doesn't come around. For better or worse, they're very willing to part with bat first players and hold glove first players to a very high standard. See Arraez vs Kepler.

Agreed. Nobody wants to part with good players, and Polanco is a good player. Luis Arraez was a good player too though, and it takes a good player to get good players back.

Exactly. Polanco is a great player on a reasonable deal. If after 2023 they feel like they can fill 75% of Polanco's value at 2B with one of the prospects and trade Polanco for a really good deal, history says there's no way they wouldn't do it. There aren't too many untouchables on the Twins roster in my opinion.

Polanco isn't a concern, but if they feel his defense is costing them, they start to look at him as expendable. We've seen that play out several times with this regime. We just watched them trade Luis Arraez who was also well liked and cheap. There's no obvious replacement behind him at 1B other than hoping Kirilloff is healthy and good, Gallo coming in from the OF to play there, or Miranda going back. I think people underestimate this front office's willingness to trade off pretty much anyone if they feel like they can replace them and get good value out of it.

It won't take going 4 for 4 on the prospects. If one or two look like possible MLB contributors it gives the Twins something to think about. Also I pointed out within that his salary is incredibly affordable and didn't imply that would be a reason to trade him. Luis Arraez was affordable too however.

The Twins previous core continues to be dismantled as young players continue approaching the MLB and veterans fizzle or get shipped out of town. For Jorge Polanco, 2023 may have a huge bearing on his future with the Twins. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco has been with the Twins through good and bad. Debuting in 2016, he's been a part of some of the most irrelevant and prolific teams in recent Twins history. At 29 years old and under team control through 2025 with a very affordable contract, he could still be around for some time. 2023 will have a lot to do with this possibility, however. Polanco has been up and down the last few years, being a great regular in 2019 before an ankle injury made him something of a non-factor in 2020. In 2021, he was arguably the best player on the team, but in 2022, he missed significant time and wasn’t quite the same player on the field. It’s hard to argue that Polanco is currently very valuable to the team, but he may have to become a more well-rounded player in order to cement his future in Minnesota. It would be surprising to see Jorge Polanco struggle offensively in 2023. A switch hitter, he’s certain to be an everyday player, as regardless of the opposing pitcher he can take advantage of platoon splits. His slash line of .235/.346/.405 could be considered a down season by his standards, but when compared to the league average, he was still 19% above offensively. It’s easy to bet on Polanco being 15-20% above league average again in 2023, but it’s his defense that may determine his future. Polanco ranged from below average to horrendous defensively depending on the defensive metric in 2022. His -9 Outs Above Average was better than only two players who qualified at 2B across the entire league. His -1 Defensive Runs Saved was certainly passable, but context matters. With multiple infield prospects capable of playing second base knocking on the door of the MLB, Polanco needs to finally be the second baseman we all hoped he could be. Injuries may have played a part in Polanco’s defensive struggles, though there isn’t really much evidence to the theory that it cost him defensively. In 2021, when Polanco played 152 games and put up a career year, he was worth -10 Outs Above Average with a more impressive 3 Defensive Runs Saved. Even that positive 3 isn’t what you’d expect from a former shortstop who’s moved to second base. Sprint speed is a good way to judge a player's health in a given year. Typically in seasons riddled with injury, sprint speed declines. In 2020, Jorge Polanco was visibly taking half swings all season as he hobbled on an ankle that required surgical repair in the offseason. He posted a career-low 27.8 average sprint speed. In 2022, Polanco’s average sprint speed was the highest it had been since 2019. In regard to second basemen, he actually improved from 30th by sprint speed in 2021 to 22nd in 2022, and for players of his same age, he was the 14th fastest player by average sprint speed. It’s possible that his knee and back issues affected his defense, but playing through injury certainly isn’t reflected at least in this metric. The fact that his 2022 defensive measures mostly match his healthy 2021 doesn't paint a great picture either. It’s possible that despite Polanco moving off of shortstop, where he was stretched, the defensive boost we expected simply isn’t coming. Since the position change, we have roughly 1,800 innings of data telling us that this is the case. With the shift ban debuting in 2023, it’s possible things will get even worse. Polanco can play a less-than-ideal defense and still be a valuable contributor because of his bat, but the Twins have shown they aren’t interested in this mold of player. Look no further than recently-departed Luis Arraez. There are offense-needy teams throughout the MLB, and the Twins have shown that they don’t value players who accrue all of their value at the plate. With possibly two years and $22.5 million remaining on Polanco’s contract after 2023, several teams across the league would likely give up a good bit of value if they’re willing to tolerate shaky infield defense to boost their offense. The Twins love value. Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis. These are the players to watch in 2023. If they give the Twins any hope whatsoever of being able to provide close to Jorge Polanco’s level of value, the Twins will likely see him as expendable to improve the team elsewhere. If Polanco’s defense doesn’t improve in year three as a full-time second baseman, the possibility of one of these prospects meeting that threshold becomes very likely. It’s a make-or-break year for Jorge Polanco. Do you agree? View full article

I think Gallo was signed to replace Kepler but they misjudged Kepler's value in trade. My issue with Urshela vs Kepler is that they dumped Urshela to open playing time for a younger player but would rather jam up the roster to hold onto Kepler who quite frankly hasn't been a starting caliber player in years. People can cite his defense all they want, he's replaceable as evidenced by the 3-4 other plus defensive corner outfielders on the roster. His lack of offense at a premium offensive position makes him a bench player, but the Twins unfortunately can't let 2019 go. If somebody offers a Gio Urshela level trade package for Kepler, I guess I just don't understand why they wouldn't take hit. Get rid of his money and get a right handed bat or reliever who will offer more value to the roster. Or, as I wrote about, just identify the left handed, defense first outfielder as the more expendable one from day one of the offseason and instead of dumping Urshela, just peg him as a utility infielder and dump Kepler for the low minors reliever.

Roster context is important though. The Twins have three left handed corner outfielders who are plus defenders and Michael A Taylor who will also likely play in the corners from time to time. That level of defensive value starts to reach the point of diminishing returns pretty quickly considering all of those players can't be on the field at the same time. Urshela is essentially the opposite of what Kepler and Gallo were last season: All of his Fangraphs WAR was gained from his offense. Would we rather have multiple players who get all of their value from defense and cripple the lineup, or one of those players and a right handed hitter who can match up better? I'm not concerned about Urshela's lack of ability to play the outfield, the "depth" turned into an excess the day Gallo was signed.

I agree with you regarding further roster moves. This opinion is based on the recent reporting that they don't seem likely to trade Kepler. I think Urshela is more valuable as an overall player and to this particular roster than Kepler. If they still did and the roster jam got cleared up then I'm happy to call Gio for Farmer a worthy 1:1 swap. I just don't like where they're at currently with players like Wallner and Larnach (Who have a chance to be better than Kepler) buried on the depth chart and Gallo potentially playing out of position.

It's reading the tea leaves based on the reports we have regarding the limited work Kirilloff is getting in terms of swings and the soreness that persists in his wrist. In that same article there's a fair amount of referencing Joey Gallo playing 1B. I'd rather have kept Gio Urshela than have the left handed outfield logjam they have now, especially if Gallo is going to have to play out of position from where he's earned two gold gloves. I'd also prefer to have Urshela over Kepler simply due to redundancy. They've replaced Urshela with Farmer, a worthy trade off considering Farmer's ability to play SS. They replaced Celestino with Taylor to give the younger guy time to develop more in AAA, another worthy trade off. They also dropped Garlick from the 40 man roster and replaced him with another left handed corner outfielder in need of a bounceback in Joey Gallo despite the fact that Max Kepler is essentially at the same crossroads in his career. A team that got abused by AAA level left handed pitchers last season because of their inability to put themselves in advantageous matchups has actually made the active choice to become more left handed. I don't like that roster construction, and a lot of it appears to be tied to their refusal to admit Max Kepler is nothing more than a defense first fill in level player just because he had one single great season three years ago. That's my issue with the current roster and why I think dumping Gio Urshela was a mistake. In regards to Lewis, you simply can't justify offseason roster decisions based on a guy with 41 career plate appearances who won't be back until July at the earliest after tearing his ACL a second time. That's a bonus player, not one you count on if you're a serious team.

Kirilloff will probably need a lot of days off early in the season anyways though so it'd work out well. That's also best case scenario. I think people underestimate the chance that Kirilloff provides nothing at all. It's an unfortunate reality, but one I thought they could have planned better for.

They basically traded what would have been 3B depth in Urshela (when Miranda moved over) for SS depth in Farmer, but they could've had both. I think if there's one thing the roster could use right now, it's one more right handed bat to play 1B if Kirilloff needs to platoon. I think Gio would have been able to fit that description very well, even if Farmer was still here.