Cody Pirkl

Jorge Polanco has dealt with a fair amount of lower body injuries in his career. After knee issues ended his 2022 season, Polanco got off to a late start to 2023 before hamstring issues sidelined him. With the same issue landing him on the IL again, this recent injury is likely to keep him down for a solid stretch. While disappointing for Polanco and the Twins, Edouard Julien is the recipient of a massive opportunity to show why the Twins are such big fans. Julien has been an on-base machine throughout his minor league career. Though he did have his fair share of whiffs, he had been able to limit the punch outs to under 25% of his plate appearances in his last two minor league seasons while approaching a near 20% walk rate. As could be expected, neither has translated directly to his MLB debut, with a walk rate of around 11% and a bloated 34.6% K rate. It’s fair to say Julien hasn’t quite hit his stride yet, especially when it comes to controlling the strike zone. That becomes a scary thought considering the rookie is already slashing .260/.353/.493, good for 35% above league average. For a hitter with such an advanced plate approach, one may expect him to adjust quickly, and that’s exactly what Julien has done. While continuing to flash his power at the plate, the former 18th-round pick from Auburn via Quebec has continued to improve month over month in his sporadic MLB debut season. In addition to the increase in walk rate, Julien reduced his whiff % from 44.2 to 38.7 from April to May, and has only swung and missed about 15% of the time in his two games since being recalled. They’re all small samples, but signs of adjustment nonetheless. Aside from plate discipline, Julien has some other questions to answer while Polanco is away. For starters, Julien has yet to prove much against left-handed pitching. It may be a lack of opportunity, as the Twins have only allowed him to take seven plate appearances against southpaws and will likely continue to platoon him to some degree. He’ll still likely get the occasional lefty-on-lefty matchup, and if he can capitalize on a few opportunities, it’s possible he opens the Twins’ eyes to him being a capable everyday player. For as well as Julien is expected to hit right-handed pitchers, even holding his own against lefties would take his already can’t-miss bat to an entirely different level. The biggest question, of course, is the defense. For how athletic Edouard Julien clearly is, reports have had him stretched as a second baseman, and early results in the MLB have so far matched up. In just 140 innings at second base, Julien has been worth -3 Defensive Runs Saved. Outs Above Average grades him at -3 as well in his limited time in the field. His defensive struggles have been apparent on the most superficial levels, as despite just one official error, he’s had a handful of awkward-looking plays. Julien is presented with an opportunity. Jorge Polanco’s contract for 2024 has already vested for $10.5m, but the Twins have a $1m buyout. Make no mistake, that’s an absolute bargain for a player at Polanco’s skill level. That being said, the injuries could be on the verge of spinning out of control. Julien could put some thoughts in the front offices’ heads about his future on the club beyond 2023 if the bat continues to play, and the defense is even passable. Polanco seems like a near-impossible hole to fill, but in the business of baseball, young, effective, cost-controlled players can push front offices into some difficult decisions. In the near term, the Twins are missing one of the more underrated pieces of their lineup as they have been for much of the season. The hope is that Julien proves to be the leadoff hitter this lineup has missed all year, and that when and if Polanco is ready to return, Julien has done enough to make it more than just a procedural move to send him back to St. Paul. We’ve heard about Edouard Julien for some time, and he finally has an extended opportunity to show what he can do. Can he be part of the solution in what has been a frustrating Twins lineup, or will we be counting down the days until Jorge Polanco’s return?

One can expect variation from year to year regarding things like walk and strikeout rates as teams cycle out old personnel and bring in new players. What has happened to the 2023 Twins, however, isn’t normal. Going from an above-league-average team at avoiding strikeouts to being on pace for the most strikeouts in history doesn’t just happen by signing Joey Gallo. The evidence is throughout the lineup. As things currently stand, six semi-regulars in the lineup would have the worst career strikeout rates if the season ended today. Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Donovan Solano, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro are all on this list. Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer are having their worst strikeout seasons since 2019. Looking at some newcomers, Farmer, Vázquez, Castro, and Taylor have all come from different organizations and have seen their strikeout rates explode with the Twins. Kind of odd that there would be so many cases of this in addition to the holdovers who are also whiffing more than ever. It’s fair to note that many of these names aren’t qualified hitters and it’s still plenty possible that their strikeouts normalize over the rest of the season, but it’s still odd. So what could be going on? Coincidence What are the odds that so many players would be having their worst seasons by K rate or in some cases, their worst in 3+ years by pure chance? It’s hard to say exactly, but it’s likely pretty low. Still, it has to be said that baseball is weird and random. Maybe the Twins are the recipients of this round of wrath from the baseball gods. Each of these players could have completely separate issues they must work through. Who’s to say? Scouting A big part of today’s game is scouting and preparation. What does this pitcher throw, and when do they throw it? Where do they like to throw their fastball compared to their breaking ball? Is there a slight difference in a release point that can give the hitter a small edge? These are all things that lineups prepare for everyday pre-game and have become a necessity. We’re not mind readers and have no idea what goes on pregame, but it's hard to say who does if the Twins don’t look like an unprepared offensive team. It seems like night after night an opposing pitcher is setting a career high in strikeouts. They’ve faced off against starters with predictable plans of attack such as Michael Kopech sitting above the zone with the fastball, and look completely surprised over and over again as they chase. While Domingo German was skirting the line of using a foreign substance in New York, it was disheartening to hear the broadcast discuss his well-known changeup as a go-to pitch and watch the lineup react as though they didn’t even know it was in his repertoire. It’s possible the Twins' preparation leaves them either underprepared for the challenge on a given night, or that it just doesn’t work for everybody as reported by Dan Hayes of the Athletic this week: We may find out more in this regard as personnel decisions are made amidst the struggles, and it’s something to keep an eye on as players appear to be losing faith in the process. Organizational Philosophy Every organization preaches some kind of hitting philosophy. Sometimes it’s obvious such as the Royals or Guardians focusing on contact no matter how poor the quality. It’s fair to wonder if the Twins are on the complete opposite side of that spectrum. With a handful of new faces coming over and seeing such notable increases in strikeout rate, it makes one wonder whether they showed up to camp and were tasked with changing their approach. In plenty of cases, an increase in whiffs could be attributed to aging such as with Vázquez, who has also seen a decline in barrels. It’s not a theory that’s supported across the board, but one to consider as both new and old players continue down their strikeout-riddled path. With Derek Falvey recently noting that he "expected the Twins to be a top-10 team in strikeouts", but is surprised by being #1, it makes you think. Could this have been an organizational shift gone horribly wrong? The unfortunate truth is that publicly we’ll never know for sure. It could be one of the aforementioned theories, a mixture of the three, or another issue not previously considered at all. The bottom line is that what the Twins are doing right now isn’t working. Even in the AL Central, it can be argued that you can’t make the playoffs while only showing up offensively 1-3 days per week. The boom-bust nature of the lineup has trended far too deep into the trenches of “bust”, and it’s becoming clear that the Twins' offense has crossed the line that no pitching staff can pull them back from. With roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, the Twins are in the unenviable position of needing to make a sweeping change in approach across an entire lineup. They’re not one bat away, and they’re not missing any saviors on the IL with Gallo and Buxton being the poster children for what has been a fatally inconsistent lineup. Can they make an adjustment?

Brock Stewart has been a pleasant surprise. After dominating in St. Paul for just under nine innings, the right-hander got the call to the big leagues for the first time since 2019 and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s overcome an unsightly 15.5% BB rate with his 28.2% K rate in order to post a 1.06 ERA. He would have been a nice supporting piece to an already quality bullpen, but instead, he’s been a big reason it’s stayed afloat. It’s safe to say the Twins bullpen has not shaken out in the way they intended. After making no additions this offseason, things could be going worse, but they haven’t quite been up to the task of supporting what has been a stagnant offense. With little margin for error, 2022 breakout Griffin Jax has allowed a barrage of blown leads. Jorge Alcala has not rebounded from elbow surgery. Caleb Thielbar has missed time with injury. 2022 trade deadline acquisition Jorge Lopez has somehow been even more of a liability than he was down the stretch in 2022. All of this has led to Brock Stewart becoming an invaluable piece of the Twins late-game formula, as evidenced by his Win Probability Added being second-best in the bullpen. The Twins deserve credit for seeking out Stewart on a minor-league deal a year ago to rehab under their watch, but they’re fortunate that it’s turned out so well that Stewart has been one of their go-to relievers in 2023. Beyond the context of what Stewart has meant to this bullpen, his development is a major credit to him. A former top starting pitch prospect, he’s completely reinvented himself at the age of 31 after a career of struggles and injury. Stewart’s average fastball during his last MLB action was a modest 91.7. It currently sits at 97.2. In addition to the heater, Stewart has a five-pitch mix including a sinker, sweeper, cutter and changeup, all of which are inducing whiffs at a rate of over 35%. He has an entire arsenal of weapons. All of this to say, the Twins are fortunate to have Brock Stewart on call. There was little fanfare coming into the season, and he’s taken an opportunity and run with it. There’s no telling what the future holds for Stewart at 31, but the right-hander isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2025 so long as he can keep the magic going. Like they’ve done in the past, it appears the Twins have found a diamond in the rough. It’s hard to say where they’d be without Brock Stewart.

Christian Vázquez was a plus defender in 2022 and around league average hitter, making him one of the premier catchers on the market. It was enough for the Twins to outbid other interested teams in uncharacteristic fashion. Between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, Vázquez’s bat in particular looks to be headed in the wrong direction. Is it worth worrying about? Vázquez had an all-around solid 2022 season, albeit with a rough ending. The Red Sox-turned-Astros backstop was traded at the deadline and struggled down the stretch, posting a .470 OPS in September. It’s a trend you’ll sometimes see from a catcher as they wear down late in the season, and often is tough to avoid. Vázquez’s struggles have carried into 2023 as we’ve reached a third of the way through. The Twins backstop has posted a sub .600 OPS so far at age 32, and he’s showing signs that his age is catching up to him at the plate. The most obvious issue is that Vázquez has yet to collect a barrel at the plate. By definition, a barrel is categorized as a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph struck at a launch angle of 26-30 degrees. For every tick above 98 mph, the launch angle expands to meet the definition of a barrel. Thus far, Vázquez has an average exit velocity of 86.3 mph. His launch angle is 10.4 degrees. Both are his worst since 2017. Vázquez has a reputation of being a hitter that puts the ball in play for better or worse, rarely walking or striking out. So far, his 24.1% K rate is up from any other season in his career. Digging deeper into his K rate is an even more worrisome trend. Vázquez has whiffed more against offspeed pitches and breaking balls, but he’s also posting a career-worst whiff rate against fastballs at 23.6% after doing so 15.1% of the time last season and 11.7% of the time in 2021. Vázquez is undeniably trending in the wrong direction when it comes to catching up to fastballs. Vázquez is still by all accounts a great defender behind the plate despite a few errors early in the season. That being said, this isn’t what the Twins signed up for. With a 71 wRC+, Vázquez has been a zero in the Twins' inconsistent lineup. Catchers are almost always defense-first players and often provide no offensive value at all. The Twins had their choice of several such catchers this winter if they chose to go that route, but decided to pick out Vázquez due to his ability to provide a bit more. So far he has not. Hopefully, this is just some sort of slump for Vázquez in the early going, but anytime a 32-year-old catcher loses all power and starts slipping against fastballs, red flags go up. The catching position endures so much wear and tear that players at the position can fall off quickly. There’s a lot of time and money left on the contract, and while Vázquez has been as advertised behind the plate, the Twins would leave a good bit of value on the table over the length of the deal if this is the offense he provides. Luckily they have Ryan Jeffers to hopefully pick up the slack if need be, but the beginning of Vázquez’s Twins career is disappointing. Can he turn it around?

Matt Wallner has become something of a forgotten top prospect before his recent stint in the big leagues. Many write him off because of his lack of range as a defender and his heavy swing-and-miss tendencies. He’s been stashed in St. Paul for much of the season where he’s dominated the competition, as he has at every other stop in the minors. Having finally been given a chance to show what he can do at the big league level, Wallner has come through. Unfortunately, the Twins have set up a situation where it doesn’t matter what Wallner shows, he’s buried too far down the depth chart. This winter the Twins reportedly had trade offers on the table for Max Kepler. He’s underperformed expectations in every year of his career aside from the juiced ball 2019 and was coming off of a 2022 season in which he failed to produce at even league-average levels. It seemed Kepler’s time as a Twin was coming to an end, especially when they signed Joey Gallo to hit from the left side and play a gold glove-caliber corner outfield. Instead, they kept them both. To be fair, neither move has been an albatross. Kepler has been a shade above average offensively, and his defense remains a plus. Gallo has been a boon at least at times as a source of power in an offense that has been the team's Achilles Heel. Unfortunately, those are just two pieces of the left-handed puzzle. Nick Gordon was still in the picture, as was the switch-hitting Willi Castro, not to mention Trevor Larnach, who was recently placed on the IL with pneumonia. It took injuries to three left-handed outfielders for Matt Wallner to get an opportunity at the big-league level despite posting a 120 wRC+ at every stop in the minor leagues. Last September he was called up and posted an above-league-average slash line in the MLB as well. Wallner was called up for a brief five-game spell when Larnach hit the IL and has showcased what he could do. His total after 11 big league games this season includes a .368/.520/.579 slash line. The major red flag in his profile is the strikeout rate, and he’s kept the whiffs below 20% so far. Wallner’s on-base power combo has been a refreshing addition to a Twins lineup that continues to sink further into the abyss. With news of Max Kepler’s IL trip coming to an end, however, Wallner is getting sent back to St. Paul. There isn’t a corresponding move that makes more sense than sending down a left-handed corner outfielder for Max Kepler’s return. If Larnach were healthy and playing he would have been the casualty considering it was Kepler’s injury that got him up in the first place. That being said, it’s a huge bummer. There was never any level of performance that would have kept Wallner in the big leagues, and they set themselves up for this situation. The only route for young left-handed bats to get an opportunity is through injury. No matter how well they perform, they’re doomed to be sent back down when the corresponding player is healthy. The Twins find themselves in the middle of a no man's land that they had to have known was a possibility. It’s possible that Wallner’s recent stretch of success puts him ahead of Larnach on the depth chart, but they’ll both still fall behind two players in Gallo and Kepler who have been too good to cut bait with but have no possibility of being cornerstones of a lineup. Alex Kirilloff will hopefully be up to stay. Nick Gordon will also be back later this season. The Twins have an undeniable unwillingness to turn the page on organizational favorites like Max Kepler, and to be fair, Kepler has justified the move. Joey Gallo has been a strong addition to the team even with his well-known deficiencies. Rostering both is beginning to stretch the definition of the word “depth” As the lineup continues to find new lows it’s becoming fair to wonder whether new faces might be the answer rather than relying on a full lineup rebound. Matt Wallner will head back to St. Paul having reached base in eight consecutive plate appearances. There’s a small chance at the very least that he was becoming a much-needed contributor to the Twins lineup, and if they had the ability, it’s fair to say the Twins would have allowed this hot streak to play out. Unfortunately, we really won’t know until another injury occurs, and that’s a shame.

The Twins were projected to be a good-not-great team headed into 2023. Betting outlets and websites such as FanGraphs had them projected to finish in the 80-85 win range. 50 games into the season, the Twins are right on par to meet those expectations. Far from a juggernaut, they’ve been good enough to lead the pack in the AL Central. All that being said, fans having some disappointment thus far is more than fair. The “AL Central Champions” title hasn’t carried much weight in recent seasons, and 2023 is no different. On one hand, the Twins are doing what they should be by being on top of such a weak division, but some may find the surrounding context frustrating. With the second-place team in the division being Detroit (29th in runs scored and 21st in ERA), it does make one wonder how good the Twins actually are given their meager two-game lead through 50 contests. While the Twins leading the division is undeniably good, the competition is undeniably bad, and they’re just barely hanging on. The Twins first place standing in the worst division in baseball may not give much reassurance to some, which is probably fair. The Twins' style as a team has also been frustrating to date. Starting pitching has long been the missing piece of the puzzle, and now that they have arguably the best rotation in baseball, the offense has completely disappeared. It’s like a sick game of Whack-A-Mole for the baseball gods. The boom-bust nature we saw all too often in 2022 has carried into 2023 to an even more intense degree. They’ve scored 3 runs or fewer in 22 of their 50 games, 44% of the time. Their 26th-ranked team batting average and 24th-ranked team OBP paired with a near 10 strikeouts per game as a team creates little action. Their sixth-best 68 homers can only do so much to make up for such little else going on offensively. That’s not only a frustrating combination of offensive struggles, but an extremely boring one to watch. The offense is failing in ways that are bound to cause frustration, as Carlos Correa has put up the worst start to a season in his career with a sub-.700 OPS. Bases loaded opportunities have reached maddening levels of incompetence, as the offense is slashing .116/.173/.116 with 13 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances. They remain hitless in 10 plate appearances with bases loaded and no outs. The Twins pursued pieces to hit around left-handed pitching this offseason, adding Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano to a respectable group of existing righties. For the fourth consecutive season, they’re not meeting expectations against lefties, and have in fact been downright brutal slashing .215/.309/.390 in these matchups. Many of the offensive struggles simply make no sense. This of course leads into the bullpen, as after spending so much of the season pitching with zero margin for error courtesy of the offense, they’ve started to spring a leak. With zero offseason additions, the Twins once again appear to be one arm short in the late innings. Griffin Jax has been allowed to take loss after loss, accumulating six already with an ERA over 5.00. The Twins not only passed on non-tendering Emilio Pagán, but reportedly on trading him this offseason. While he’s pitched better as a mostly low-leverage reliever, Caleb Thielbar’s injury and Jax’s struggles once again thrust him into high leverage, which he promptly melted down in against the Dodgers. At this point, it’s a bit hard to blame anyone for being fed up watching this play out. The frustration with the Twins lies in missed opportunity. The starting pitching rarely leaves the game without giving the team a chance to win. The rest of the team is far too often finding new creative ways to lose. The Twins would certainly be playing from behind in the division if the starting staff was even top 10 rather than the very top of the league. The Twins' failure to create any padding despite their pitching so far is difficult to swallow. Especially looking back on 2022, where the team failed to create any space in what was a summer-long division lead only to finish in third place and 14 games out. There’s nothing wrong with hoping the Twins will get better as the season goes on or even being content with their record so far as it falls right in line with projections. That being said, there’s a lingering feeling that they’ve left quite a few wins on the table. It’s okay to be disappointed.

The Twins have a mess of established players not answering the bell from Carlos Correa in the lineup to Griffin Jax out of the bullpen. This has shifted some of the pressure onto the less established members of the team to pick up the slack. Luckily, a few of them have. Jovani Morán Morán has been serving as the bullpen’s sole lefty since Caleb Thielbar hit the IL, and it appears we have a ways to go until he’s ready to return. Morán got off to a dreadful start to the season, with his patented walk issues on display and allowing a few uncharacteristic home runs. When the Twins have needed him most, he’s stepped up in what has been a leaky bullpen. The most encouraging piece here is his walk rate in May being about a third of his career rate in the MLB. It’s likely wishful thinking to believe this is some new norm for the inaccurate left-hander, but any reduction would be a welcome development. His command issues reared their head in Tuesday’s game when he walked a hitter with bases loaded, but also flashed the stuff to nearly escape after entering the situation with no outs. The same goes for Thursday when he walked the first hitter of the inning and promptly struck out the side. Morán’s rocky start wiped many fans' memories of his 2022 season in which he posted a 2.21 ERA in 40+ innings. If he can limit the walks just a bit, he has the ability to help fortify the bullpen during the summer months. Willi Castro Willi’s bar isn’t set very high, but he’s definitely flashing the skills that the Twins saw when they named him the super-utility man coming out of spring training. Bouncing around the outfield and occasionally filling in at third base, Castro has posted a plenty respectable 89 wRC+. He’s posted a .711 OPS in May and more recently a .757 OPS since May 12. His .674 OPS on the season is just a touch behind Carlos Correa, and his 0.3 Wins Above Replacement is tied despite appearing in 8 fewer games. Castro’s recent success has largely been the result of a batting average on balls in play that would make the Cleveland Guardians blush. The fact of the matter is he’s doing more than enough offensively relative to where he’s at in the order regardless of how. There aren’t many other hitters across the Twins lineup that this can be said about. A continued hot streak may just keep Castro around deep into the summer. José De León De León sports an unsightly 5.79 ERA, but the bad news stops there. De León was added to the roster to fill a long relief role but in a very small sample, looks like he should get a chance to develop into more. Averaging near 95 mph on the fastball so far, De León has struck out nearly 47% of the hitters he’s faced. His fastball has allowed a .226 xWOBA, and the changeup and slider have generated whiff rates above 40% apiece. This explains why every existing underlying stat says he should be dominating. De León isn’t a young up-and-comer at 30 years old, but as we’ve seen with Brock Stewart, relievers can find a switch to flip even into their 30s. The Twins will likely be a bit less inclined to send him down based on the raw stuff he’s flashed, as doing so would expose him to waivers, and even in a small sample size, he’s shown enough to catch the eyes of other teams across the league. We’ll likely see De León get a chance to play himself into or out of a legitimate bullpen role, though for now, we can expect him to pitch in low leverage. Hopefully, some of the big dogs get going, but some of these names continuing to do what they’ve done and possibly even taking it a step further can help. Are there any other Twins trending up under the radar? Let us know below!