Jordan Balazovic Has Emerged

It seemed disaster was around the corner when the Twins lost Brock Stewart to injury before the all-star break. The resurgent flame thrower had become the Twins fireman to complement Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, and was arguably pitching better than either of them with Caleb Thielbar on the IL and Jorge Lopez not living up to expectations. The Twins were seemingly left with two reliable bullpen arms and a whole lot of questions. Emilio Pagan certainly deserves his praise, but Jordan Balazovic’s performance may be the most encouraging for the future of the Twins bullpen.

Jordan Balazovic so far has posted a 2.93 ERA on the season. While his peripherals indicate regression is coming, his xERA is in the perfectly acceptable mid-3s. His FIP and xFIP are in the high 4s to mid 5s range, but they're being skewed quite a bit by his most recent outing where the Mariners put together two great at-bats, not chasing well-executed pitches to work walks before Dylan Moore ambushed Balazovic on a 95 mph fastball at the top of the zone. The stuff looked good despite the disappointing outcome.

On Monday night, the Twins bullpen was depleted after having to use Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax on consecutive days. Balazovic was thrust into his first high-leverage opportunity. Facing the heart of the Mariners lineup, Balazovic stranded a runner at third base to preserve the lead. While Jax would allow a go-ahead homer in the ninth, Balazovic had himself set up for his first Major League hold. 

Despite it looking like Balazovic could be headed in the wrong direction by the numbers, it’s very possible he can stave off regression with some further adjusting. 

The Twins did Balazovic no favors when it comes to his MLB debut. He had spent his season in St. Paul as a long reliever before injuries forced him onto the Twins roster where he filled a single-inning role. It’s a completely different style of pitching, and now that he’s been fully transitioned to a one-inning relief role, it should be expected that he’ll adjust as he settles in.

A big reason the underlying numbers aren’t big fans of Balazovic is the lack of strikeouts thus far. He hasn’t shown a lack of whiffs in the minors since 2017 and had struck out 31.1% of hitters in St. Paul this season before his call-up. It may take some playing around, but Balazovic should have the tools to collect punchouts at an acceptable rate. His mid-90s fastball paired with a slider that’s posted a 118 Stuff+ alone should collect more whiffs long-term, and he’s rarely used his changeup despite it posting a 37.5% whiff rate having only been thrown 17 times. 

For a starter-turned-long reliever-turned-traditional reliever all in the same season, things could be going worse for Jordan Balazovic, and he’s been a cog in a bullpen machine that could have easily misfired regularly while missing multiple important pieces. When some of the injured arms return or the Twins go out and acquire help at the deadline, Balazovic will be pushed back down into lower leverage. As long as the walks stay down, Balazovic has shown that he deserves a spot as at least a functional middle reliever, and given his prospect pedigree as a starter, it’s fair to imagine that there’s much more he has to offer over the next 6+ years of team control.

With their backs against the wall, the Twins bullpen has held it’s own, and Jordan Balazovic has been a pleasantly surprising reason why. Can he parlay his fill-in performance into a bigger bullpen role in the next few years?