Cody Pirkl

The Twins have a pair of corner outfielders with similar profiles under team control over the next few seasons. As they try to thread the needle this offseason, will they decide that only one of them can fit through the eye? Image courtesy of orlando ramirez-usa today sports Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are currently likely to fill both corner outfield spots in the Twins' Opening Day lineup for 2025. Each has had their share of highs in a Twins uniform, and (alas) miserable lows to match. Could the Twins decide this winter that they would be better off not trusting both of them? Larnach and Wallner each saw their values completely bottom out at one point in 2024. Larnach seemed like a sure thing to be shipped out before the season, and Wallner quickly lost his starting job and was demoted to St. Paul after looking thoroughly lost at the MLB level throughout spring training and over the first fortnight of the regular campaign. For a Twins roster that finished the season at the lowest of lows, however, these two put up tremendous seasons and have given the Twins every reason to trust them in 2025. Whereas they appeared to be part of the problem early on, they were the only things about the team that worked down the stretch. Larnach’s rebound had much to do with completely retooling his plate approach. After three seasons and nearly 700 plate appearances with a strikeout rate over 30%, he lowered this mark to 22.3% in 2024—while posting a career high in homers and slugging average. He didn’t completely put his injury problems behind him, but he was able to play through much of the season with turf toe, which leaves one wondering if Larnach has yet another level he could attain. Wallner was one of the saviors of the Twins in 2023. but was demoted after striking out 17 times in 33 at-bats in April. He returned in July and slashed .282/.386/.559 with 12 homers the rest of the way. He was one of the few offensive players pulling their weight during the team’s historic collapse. Importantly, though, he did so with a strikeout rate well above 30%. Both players have established themselves as high-upside offensive players who are limited defensively and still possess plenty of red flags when evaluating their futures. For a team likely trading away starting players from other parts of the roster, Larnach or Wallner could each be dangled on the trade market as part of what could be a sizeable shakeup. A team like the Twins, who value defensive chops, may be nervous about running out this pair, given the defensive falloff they would see with Max Kepler’s departure. One could argue that each of these sluggers putting up slightly better than average offense would bridge the gap, but if the Twins don’t feel confident in their ability to do so, it may make a decision that much easier. Of course, the Twins could choose to keep their homegrown players, both of whom were bright spots during a miserable 2024. Each has had their fair share of adversity, and has bounced back significantly. There are also arguments for even more upside for both. Larnach could further tap into his raw power, making him a monster at the plate if he can hold his strikeout gains. Wallner performed at an elite level, even with one of the worst strikeout rates among regulars last season. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are both high-variance, left-handed corner outfielders who have made strides in the last year, though their futures are not without questions. Should the Twins cash in on one of them coming off a season in which their value may be at an all-time high? Should they let it ride and hope they can become core players in the heart of the lineup for years to come? Let us know below! View full article

In a vacuum, yes. Starting pitchers are more valuable than relief pitchers. If Jax were a high end starter, it would blow his value as a high end reliever out of the water. That being said, the odds of any pitcher switching from the bullpen and becoming a high end starter are not high regardless of examples we can cite. Id argue that if Jax made a switch and became a solid starting pitcher (which would be a great outcome), it would have less impact on this particular roster than if he remained a high end reliever.

Id argue the Twins absolutely have a choice here. Jax doesn't have them over a barrel, he's still under team control.

Seth Lugo had to wait until free agency and change teams to try starting again because moving him didn't work best for the Mets roster. That's how it goes in baseball sometimes, the players don't always get to play the position they want to if it doesn't fit into the teams plans. See Royce Lewis at second base.

There are tons of examples of guys making the transition successfully and Jax certainly could do it. In Lopez's specific case though, he blew out and wasn't available to the Braves down the stretch when they needed him most.

He's coming off a dominant 2024 season as the anchor of a shaky Twins bullpen. As the offseason ramps up, it sounds like Jax’s role could change. But does it make any sense for the Twins roster? Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports In an otherwise quiet offseason so far, a very impactful bit of Twins speculation dropped on Wednesday, leaving fans to wonder whether they’ll see Griffin Jax closing down games for the team in 2025. Does it make any sense for the team to change his role? While this isn’t exactly a commitment on the Twins' part to move Jax to the rotation, it is noteworthy, after Jax made it known that he wanted to have another shot at the starting rotation several times in 2024. It makes sense for him, as there’s more money to be found as a solid starting pitcher than even a high-leverage reliever. The Twins should be highly skeptical of how it benefits their roster to make this move, though. The Minnesota bullpen ranked 9th in the AL with a 4.12 ERA in 2024 and was a big reason for the team’s collapse down the stretch. There’s plenty to like about the returning names, but counting on players like Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, and even Jhoan Durán in 2025 seems like a much riskier bet after watching 2024 play out. While relief pitchers are volatile, Jax appears to be the safest bet of the current group after posting a 2.03 ERA in 71 innings. Moving Jax would leave an enormous hole in the back end of games, and this regime has given us enough evidence to assume they would not be bringing in another reliever of any consequence to bridge the gap. In regard to the rotation, the Twins' starting pitching is not as much in question, when it comes to high-end talent or depth. Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan are a formidable top three. Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack should have the inside track on the other two spots, assuming they’re both on the Opening Day roster. In addition to David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who debuted in 2024, the team has several exciting young arms expected to open the season in St. Paul, including Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and Andrew Morris. One could argue that the team should be looking to deal pieces away from this group, rather than pulling from other parts of the roster to reinforce it. When it comes to Jax’s desire to move back to the rotation, it’s hard to blame him. In addition to the financial incentives, he’s done a lot to warrant another opportunity. He posted a 6.37 ERA in his debut, as his two-pitch mix got crushed. In the three years since, he’s developed a repertoire that includes two different fastballs, two breaking balls, and an effective changeup. He has the tools to work through lineups multiple times, theoretically, and it’s easy to see why he would be confident in his ability to work through opposing lineups multiple times. He did force both lefties and righties to respect three or four possible pitch types, which is a key factor for a would-be starter. Unfortunately, it's not that simple after three years of pitching out of the bullpen. Jax’s assortment of pitches had strong indicators in metrics like Stuff+ and performed exceptionally well, but that was in short bursts where he could give 100% effort on every pitch. There were whispers that Jax preferred not to pitch more than a single inning at a time because of the intensity he summoned to execute that way. He only pitched more than one inning in five of his seventy-two appearances in 2024. He’s conditioned to pitch in short stints at this point. His stuff will decline as he’s stretched back out, and it’s impossible to say to what degree. His career high in innings pitched is 127, coming back in 2019. Injury must also be a concern if he were to build back up. In moving Jax to the starting rotation, the Twins would be making a significant gamble. In order to make up for the loss of Jax’s dominance in the bullpen, he would have to be a mid to high-end starting pitcher, especially considering that his innings will likely be limited. Given their current depth chart, the team simply wouldn’t benefit from a middling or back-end starting pitcher. Adding one to the current group would accomplish nothing other than blocking the young arms they already have. It would be hard to blame the Twins for respecting Jax’s wishes, but it’s hard to imagine taking one of the bright spots from a disastrous 2024 season and completely changing their role. There is a reality where Griffin Jax, the starting pitcher, pays off for the Twins, but given the need for him in the bullpen and the current state of the rotation, it seems like the Twins would be betting against the odds. Should the Twins give Jax a shot at the rotation? Should he remain the anchor of a currently questionable bullpen? Let us know below! View full article

The Twins have typically been slow to transition young pitchers into traditional relief roles. While the rationale is easy to follow, they need more bullpen help in 2025. They may have no choice but to be decisive with their young arms. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images The Twins are coming off a season in which their bullpen played a big part in a historic collapse. That bullpen has plenty of remaining question marks, including whether the team could part with a foundational member to improve the overall roster. With such a small needle to thread, the Twins may have to be more aggressive in transitioning young arms to the bullpen. That leaves the club in an interesting spot this offseason. The relief corps does not need a complete teardown, because even as-is, they're a talented unit headed into 2025. They could still use some help, though, and even if this front office valued relief pitchers at a high level (they do not), the payroll situation would prevent any significant additions. Financial restrictions could even result in a big name being traded away from this group. The bullpen will likely include many of the names from last season. While this group carries plenty of talent, we saw it completely implode as the worst-case scenarios played out repeatedly. We know there likely isn’t any external help coming, but the Twins should look to fortify their bullpen depth from within in 2025. Three standout candidates could do just that. Louie Varland The Twins kept Varland in the St. Paul rotation even while multiple other pitchers were ahead of him on the MLB depth chart, and the MLB bullpen struggled. In 2025, he should be a member of the Twins bullpen from day one. After multiple years of struggling as a starting pitcher, it’s time that the Twins let his plus raw stuff play up in a role where his mistake pitches are at least thrown with 100% effort. Varland’s tendency to leave balls over the plate could still be a problem in the bullpen, but the frequency at which he did so in the rotation led to too many untenable outings. We’ve seen his dominance for the short stretches the Twins have allowed him to be a traditional reliever. It’s time we see if Varland can be a high-end relief pitcher in 2025. Matt Canterino Injury struggles have overshadowed Matt Canterino’s complete dominance in his professional baseball career. He’s struck out over one-third of the opposing hitters he’s faced and posted a sub-2.00 ERA across all levels of the minor leagues, but this has been through just over 80 innings across three seasons. His health is currently in flux following a shoulder injury that ended his 2024 campaign, but as long as he’s in the organization, he’s a potential factor for the Twins because of his talent. The Twins have tried to bring Canterino back from multiple serious injuries as a starter, and it’s gone poorly every time. It’s possible that the 6-foot-2 right-hander’s arm would give him trouble regardless of his role, but it’s pretty clear at this point that asking him to throw multiple innings has not been successful. At 26 years old and already on the 40-man roster, Canterino is out of time to build up to a starter’s workload, and every inning thrown in the minor leagues seems like a waste. If he’s healthy in 2025, the Twins should fast-track him to the big-league bullpen and hope that a change in role can keep him on the field. Connor Prielipp Prielipp’s story is similar to Canterino’s, in that both have the raw potential that makes it difficult for the Twins to give up on them as starters. However, the injuries are becoming too much to stick to the plan. Prielipp has dominated whenever he’s been on the mound in recent years, but those occasions have been far too rare. In 2024, he threw just over 23 innings and was dominant from the left side. Prielipp should still be handled carefully, but one could argue it shouldn’t be as a starting pitcher. Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft, Prielipp has the kind of raw stuff to make the jump to MLB at some point in 2025, despite not having reached Double-A. While not as old as Canterino, Prielipp’s raw stuff is so compelling that it’s easy to dream of him dominating big-league hitters right now, rather than spending several years hoping he can build up a starter’s workload while using up bullets against minor-league hitters. It’s something the Twins have to at least consider in 2025. The Twins have rarely made significant external additions to the bullpen under Derek Falvey, and when they have, they’ve typically gone very poorly. Given the financial constraints this winter, it may be time to change how they handle some young pitching in their system. While the value comparison between a starting pitcher and a reliever is obvious, the Twins should be taking steps to ensure a 2024 bullpen meltdown doesn’t happen again in 2025. View full article

The former top-5 pick didn’t make much of an impact during his rookie season, but it was a solid debut. If his ceiling came down a bit, maybe we also saw his floor rise. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Austin Martin’s stats may not jump off the page, but the versatile rookie's returns were acceptable. He showed signs that while he may not be a future superstar, there’s a path for him to earn a role moving forward. A .670 OPS in 2024 leaves much to be desired, but in a down offensive year league-wide, this number came in just 6% below the league average. Martin showed much of what we expected, based on his minor-league career. His on-base skills were sufficient, but he showed little to no power. One fear regarding Martin’s profile on his way up to the MLB level was his ability to punish hittable pitches. This lack of power and reliance on walks has led many hitters with similar profiles to get the bat knocked out of their hands by fastballs. While Martin didn’t crush heaters, his numbers against them were solid. He also held his own against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, which didn’t leave any apparent holes for pitchers to exploit. Unlike many of his teammates, he's a multi-gear hitter. Martin showed his raw athleticism with seven stolen bases, which carries much more weight given the lack of speed elsewhere on the Twins roster. His ability to make plays on the bases will afford him at least a bit more opportunity on the MLB roster in the coming years, regardless of how his bat develops. Of course, Martin's biggest question moving forward will be his defense. The Twins likely played around too long by keeping Martin at shortstop throughout most of his minor league career when all indications were that they knew he was not an MLB-caliber shortstop. Even at second base, he was nothing more than an emergency option. Upon Martin’s deployment in the outfield, it became apparent that he had little experience or comfort there, either. Despite his athleticism, his debut on the grass was rough. His defense was a big reason he was a net negative for the team in measurements like FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. He was worth -13 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, as despite his physical ability to cover ground, we often saw poor reads and routes to fly balls. With so much time the team can count on needing to fill in center field every season, even Martin’s rookie season offensive production would make him a staple on the roster with average defense in center. Martin looked very much like an infielder thrust into outfield action, and hopefully, with continued reps and experience, significant improvements can be made. The raw ability is obvious. It’s easy for Martin’s rookie season to get lost in the shuffle, due to the up-and-down nature of his time on the team, but there are reasons to be encouraged. Putting up near-league-average production as a rookie isn’t a given, regardless of the player’s pedigree. Look no further than fellow rookie Brooks Lee, who posted a punchless .585 OPS during his rookie season. While Martin never stuck on the roster for an extended period and was disappointing defensively, he has a straightforward path to being a catalytic role player on the 2025 roster. The hope is that Martin has done enough to keep the Twins from bringing in a 2025 version of Manuel Margot, after (hopefully) figuring out that Martin could have filled that role better. His ability to be optioned will continue to make him somewhat expandable, but given the payroll restraints, he may be the first to get a crack at this job next season. Martin didn't quite impress, but he showed plenty of reason to hope for more from him in the coming years. Is there hope for Austin Martin to fill a platoon role in 2025? Can he earn an even more significant role? Let us know below! View full article

Among the many disappointments of the 2024 season was the Twins bullpen, one of the worst in baseball for the last month-plus of the season. Headed into 2025, they have three big question marks. Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images The Twins bullpen was largely ineffective in 2024 despite Griffin Jax being one of the best relievers in baseball and Cole Sands having a breakout season. Just about everything else went wrong, leaving them with several big questions heading into 2025. What’s Up With Durán? Jhoan Durán had the worst season of his MLB career so far in 2024, which is to say he was merely human instead of being one of the absolut ebest relievers in baseball. He lost over an entire MPH from his fastball, and his strikeout rate dropped from 32.9% to 28.9%. While still a good reliever, Durán was far from his dominant self, and a Twins bullpen that was supposed to be anchored by the 6’5" right-hander felt like it was missing its number-one option for the entire season. Durán suffered an oblique injury at the beginning of the season and never quite got back to his dominant ways. The hope is that this injury cost him some of his premium velocity and can be found again in 2025. The question is whether the Twins feel like betting on this development. After reportedly listening to trade offers for Durán last trade deadline, they could be overwhelmed with an offer this winter if teams are willing to pay peak price. With a Twins front office that does not value relief pitching, it’s worth not only wondering whether Durán will regain his pre-2024 form but also whether he’ll be in the Twins bullpen at all. Can Brock Stewart Contribute Enough? Stewart has become an essential piece of the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons, but the Twins have had to play large chunks of both years without him. More recently, Stewart was shut down with what was described as minor shoulder discomfort, requiring season-ending shoulder surgery a couple of months later. This came just one year after he missed most of the second half of 2023, though he did return at season’s end from that injury. 2025 will be Stewart’s age 33 season. After the bullpen completely ran out of gas in 2024, the goal will be to avoid it happening again in 2025. Brock Stewart will be a huge X factor in this decision-making process. While we feel safe projecting elite production when Stewart is on the mound, the Twins can’t have any confidence in his ability to be available for the entire season. Look for the Twins to try to bolster the bullpen depth in some way, but how much Stewart is available in 2025 carries a lot of weight in how the bullpen performs. Can Louie Varland Meet The Hype? The Twins' hopes of Varland sticking in the rotation should be gone headed into 2025. Between the large sample of data showing Varland isn’t effective in this role and the wealth of young starting pitching they’ll have available, it’s time to fully transition to the bullpen. The Twins have seen flashes of an elite reliever from Varland across the last two seasons, and in 2025 they should be leaning into making him a consistent contributor at the back end of games. With Varland’s raw stuff, there’s no reason he shouldn’t succeed in a shorter role, but it doesn't feel easy to say. Despite averaging 95+ on his fastball with multiple off-speed pitches to go with it, Varland owns a career ERA of over 5.50, and he hasn’t been able to strike out a batter per inning. For how talented Varland is, he’s lacked the ability to finish hitters and has been prone to game-breaking implosions. Undoubtedly, he has the raw talent to be a high-end relief pitcher; the question is whether he can harness it to meet the potential he’s shown in shorter stints. When a bullpen implodes as spectacularly as the Twins’ did this season, plenty of questions arise headed into the offseason. These three pitchers carry significant weight in how the Twins bullpen will perform next season. Can this trio help pick up the pieces and put them back together in 2025? View full article

He was one of the best hitters on the team for a stretch this summer, but his second half looked more like his 2023 self. How will his steep decline affect his future on the team and how the Twins operate this offseason? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports José Miranda hit safely in 12 consecutive at-bats at one point this season. His offensive numbers were exceptional at that moment, and he looked like a core piece of the lineup. Just like a few years ago, an injury soon followed, and Miranda’s production came crashing down. How does another injury-wrecked season affect him, and the Twins? Through Jul. 10, Miranda had posted an .888 OPS when he was placed on the IL with a back injury. Upon his return at the end of July, it was immediately apparent that Miranda’s back was still not right. In just over 150 plate appearances over the last two months, Miranda posted a .543 OPS. He was placed on the IL for the same back injury just days before the end of the season, and once again, he looks like a question mark heading into 2025. Miranda’s upside is obvious. He’s flashed it multiple times since he debuted in 2022. Unfortunately, he's matched the Twins' team-wide level of consistency during that period, bouncing between elite offensive production and offering absolutely nothing at the plate. These stretches are concerning, and even if they can be entirely chalked up to injury struggles, Miranda has now had two consecutive seasons ruined by injuries. With a roster now defined by at least three other star offensive players with the same concerns, it’s discouraging to see Miranda falling into the same bucket. It will be interesting to see how much the Twins trust Miranda. With Carlos Santana likely leaving via free agency, Miranda looked like his successor at first base, at one point this year. It would have been ideal for the Twins, who could have slotted him in cheaply, to deploy their financial or prospect capital in other areas of need. Miranda was already a question mark defensively, even at first base. Now, the Twins must be concerned about how much of Miranda’s struggles result from injury and whether he can stay healthy for an entire season. Even when healthy, Miranda’s offensive profile has some red flags. His plate approach involves a lot of swinging and making contact, sometimes to his detriment. His barrel rate is in the 28th percentile, as he swings too indiscriminately. This plate approach leads to at least some of the extreme streakiness from Miranda in his career. If pitchers live on the edges and do not make mistakes, Miranda will often make poor contact and get himself out. The ups and downs are likely to be more extreme in Miranda’s case, and we’ve seen plenty of this. With limited funds this offseason, the Twins may have to roll with Miranda at first base, regardless of their thoughts on why Miranda’s performance suffered in the second half. In previous years, they insulated certain positions when the incumbents were questionable. Sadly, those days are probably over in a new age of low payroll for the Twins. Miranda is still a big question mark, and he’s joined the group of Correa, Buxton, and Lewis as high-upside position players on this roster who seem likely to miss chunks of time throughout any given season. The Twins enter the offseason needing to hold a roster spot for him, but unsure of how much playing time to allot to him as they look toward 2025. Do you think Miranda’s second half was solely the result of injury? Has he reached the point where the Twins shouldn’t rely on him to play an entire season? Let us know below! View full article

Simeon Woods Richardson has blown past his previous high in innings in a successful rookie season. As he struggles to make it to the finish line, however, he’s made some interesting adjustments. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Simeon Woods Richardson’s season has been a massive success, and one of the more unexpected developments on the 2024 Twins. The team asked much more of him than anyone could have expected, resulting in a career-high innings count and noticeably diminished stuff down the stretch. How has Woods Richardson combated the fatigue? We heard some chatter of Woods Richardson having made some mechanical changes and increasing his velocity this spring. The hope was that, even if his days as a starter were numbered following a tremendously disappointing 2023 season, he could play up in a bullpen role. Instead, he took a starting rotation spot from Louie Varland four turns into the season and hasn’t let go. Woods Richardson’s fastball increased from under 91 mph in 2023, to over 93 in 2024. We even saw him run it up into the high 90s at times, in the peak of the summer. Unfortunately, this newfound velo and a heavy workload have led to a decline in stuff on the pitch down the stretch, and Woods Richardson has had to adjust. In August, Woods Richardson's heater reached a season-high of 93.5, but it has lost over a full tick in September, at 92.1. The pitch's effectiveness is reflected in the Stuff+ numbers, as his fastball has dropped from an already below-average 72 to an unplayable 62. An obvious adjustment would be to throw the pitch less often. After all, Woods Richardson has a slider in his repertoire, which has been his best pitch regarding opponent success and whiff rates. It would be fair to expect him to ramp up this usage as his fastball becomes less effective. That’s not what Woods Richardson decided on, though, Woods Richardson threw his slider 34% of the time in July, more than any other month. In August, he dropped the usage to 29.9%, and has held it there so far in September. He instead opted to increase the usage of his curveball, which had been a much less effective pitch in the early going. It seems he was onto something. The curveball has been Woods Richardson’s best pitch for the last two months. The pitch has spiked in whiff rate and has only allowed one hit--a ground-ball single--since Aug. 1. What gives? There are a few possible explanations. First, SWR’s slider may have become less effective as the fastball velocity has dipped. Perhaps with a slower heater, the curveball plays off of it better than the slider, which may be less deceptive as Woods Richardson has slowed down. The physical characteristics of the pitch haven't changed all that much, but starting in August, he has thrown the pitch a bit harder, just as his fastball has started coming in a bit slower. He's also landing it more in the strike zone, and specifically in the middle and upper portions thereof, including to the arm side. Before August, it was a pitch he targeted solely to the glove side, away from righty batters and in toward the back foot of lefties. Normally, it's not a great idea to live in the middle of the zone with your curveball, but when your curve is 15 or more miles per hour slower than the fastball, it can fool hitters and earn a lot of called strikes or hilarious, overcooked whiffs that way. Targeting the arm side of the plate more has also taken the horizontal wiggle out of the pitch, from the hitter's vantage point, making it harder to distinguish it early from the fastball. It's still a pitch with a really steep angle of entry into the hitting zone, coming from the lanky Richardson's fairly high release. Put all that together, and his Stuff+ on the curve has jumped from 100 through the end of August to 125 in September. It’s also worth noting that the spin rates on the curveball have dropped off a bit in recent months. It directly coincides with when the pitch became so dominant. While it’s possible that the spin rates have dropped off as he’s felt less fresh, it’s also possible a new grip or cue was found when throwing the pitch to reduce a bit of spin, and the results have been exciting. The latter option is obviously the one to hope for. For as good as Woods Richardson has been as a rookie, it’s felt like his upside has been capped because of his lack of strikeouts. His fastball had been serviceable, and his slider had been his go-to offspeed pitch. If he’s found another effective tool to add to his repertoire, it’s possible we’re looking at a different Simeon Woods Richardson in 2025. The curve might help him survive another fistful of crucial innings, if the team asks him to work in relief to save the season this weekend or if he's called upon for a playoff start next week. Failing that, though, it gives him one more way to adapt and thrive next year. View full article

The Minnesota Twins had some obvious needs heading into the 2024 MLB trade deadline, but they neglected them. As the season circles the drain, it’s time to look back and analyze what the organization may have been thinking. Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images The Twins' inaction at the trade deadline was inexcusable. It’s impossible to ignore that, as we watch a severely understaffed roster find new ways to lose on a daily basis. There will be plenty of raw emotion directed at their fateful decision in July, and rightfully so. Still, it’s important to try to follow the circumstances that led to the decisions they made. We can’t talk about the 2024 trade deadline without acknowledging that it felt much different than previous ones. The expanded playoffs limited the pool of clear sellers, driving up the acquisition prices for even short-term, medium-impact players. The front office echoed this point following the quiet passing of the deadline. We saw several starters and relievers traded for strong returns, and even got word that acquiring a mid-rotation arm like Erick Fedde would have cost the Twins one of their top prospects, perhaps because of an intradivisional trade tax. Some rental relievers were traded for MLB-ready high-end prospects, something we haven't seen happen in a long time. The Twins decided to hold onto their highly regarded farm system, and live or die with what they had--aside from Trevor Richards, that is, who likely wound up being responsible for a loss or two all by himself before being designated for assignment a few weeks after being acquired. Unfortunately, financial restraints are also a consideration. While the exact details will never be public, the Twins certainly had very little space to add salary. There was some suggestion that doing so would have required trading away someone like Max Kepler to offset the cost. While the front office could have gotten creative, they had a tough needle to thread. The Twins' history at the trade deadline is also worth considering in tandem with both points. This front office's history of acquiring players via trade during competitive seasons is flat-out putrid. Sergio Romo is one of the only deadline acquisitions under this regime to come in and increase the team's odds of winning anything. Sam Dyson, Tyler Mahle, and Jorge López are a few examples of players acquired to bolster competitive rosters down the stretch, but who instead imploded spectacularly. After watching this play out so many times before, it’s possible that the Twins preferred to mirror their low-wattage but successful 2023 trade deadline, rather than pay up to make a huge, risky splash. This is where the devil’s advocate act ends, however. The Twins are in a death spiral, and a lack of meaningful additions to the team is directly to blame. Slashing payroll resulted in lower-tier additions this last offseason, and aside from Carlos Santana (who has been a glowing success), the team hasn’t added an external player to the roster who has contributed in a meaningful way in almost two years. Some may praise the front office for their frugalness in keeping all of their prospects this deadline, deeming the prices too expensive. The problem is that every other competitive team in baseball disagreed, because they felt that improving their current roster was priority number one. At a certain point, “too expensive” is simply the market price everyone else is paying. It can be argued that the Twins are set up better for 2025, but there are no guarantees with prospects. The history of baseball is riddled with trades involving exciting prospects who never even make it to the majors. The Royals overhauled their bullpen at the deadline, not only by acquiring Lucas Erceg but by adding Michael Lorenzen to their rotation, deepening their pen through salutary demotion. They then reinforced their outfield in August with waiver claims, paying the remaining salaries of Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman to add them to their mix and snapping up Yuli Gurriel to replace the injured Vinnie Pasquantino. The Guardians only added Alex Cobb to their rotation, and his injury issues have persisted, but they also bolstered their outfield with Lane Thomas, who was atrocious in August but is hitting .294/.324/.603 for them in September. Those teams got better heading into the late summer, because they committed themselves to doing so. Competitive windows are unpredictable, even when an MLB roster looks so primed for future success with a robust farm system propping them up. Look no further than the Chicago White Sox, across the division, who were supposed to be in the middle of one right now. The Twins' season may look completely different if they had even one more decent reliever. Instead, they’re watching their playoff hopes come crashing down in September for the second time in three years, which would be an embarrassing outcome for a contending team in the era of expanded playoffs. We can’t say this was their last big chance to go on a run, as much of the team will be returning in 2025, but given how this season has unfolded, there are no guarantees. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey is not currently under contract beyond this season, as far as we or anyone else outside the organization knows. One must wonder if the payroll situation may affect his decision about whether to return. Speaking of the payroll, another reduction could be coming this winter, after attendance projections were not even close to being met in 2024. The team cut $30 million this last offseason, even after they received most of the payout they were accustomed to from their deal with Bally Sports. This will almost certainly not be the case in 2025. If the club misses out on the financial boost of making the playoffs, it will only increase ownership's urgency to save money. In addition to that lost revenue, attendance projections will see a sharp decline, as many fans will have likely been lost due to their inability to watch games on television and the overall state of the team. Competitive seasons are precious in baseball. Sometimes, magical things happen, and sometimes, they flame out. A team’s goal should be to improve its odds in this unpredictable game as much as possible. The Twins did not see the need to do so after their first playoff win in two decades, and it’s cost them dearly. The only question is whether the organization realizes to what degree yet. View full article

It seems like a lifetime ago that Matt Wallner struggled to start the year and was demoted to St. Paul. He’s emerged to help save the Twins season, for a second year in a row. Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports The one crippling hole in Matt Wallner’s game reared its head early in the season, when he posted a 51.5% strikeout rate across 33 plate appearances. Wallner spemt much of the first half in the minors, but he came back just before the All-Star break and has been white-hot ever since. While 2023 was worth plenty of praise, he’s been even better in 2024. Still, it doesn’t feel like he gets enough appreciation. Matt Wallner is approaching an entire season’s worth of plate appearances, spread over three years. After his 2022 debut, in which he posted a .709 OPS in a minimal sample, he emerged as part of the Twins' future in 2023 by posting an .877 OPS. Despite a horrid start to 2024, Wallner carries a .948 OPS so far. We’re left with a slash line of .251/.367/.518 across 158 games and 539 plate appearances. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, that’s elite offensive output, 48% better than the average hitter over that period. The context of Wallner’s performance, particularly the last two seasons, is also essential. The Twins had a very unimpressive first half of the 2023 season, and Wallner played a massive part in turning the offense around. In 2024, he’s been one of the few bright spots in a lineup missing Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa for much of the second half, while several other expected contributors have struggled. It’s interesting to wonder where the Twins would be in either of the last two years, without Wallner. Defensively, Wallner has been perfectly fine in the corner outfield. He ranks below average in Outs Above Average, which measures the ground he can cover, but his 99th-percentile arm more than makes up the difference. His defense will never be his calling card, but it is still vital. Next season, with Kepler set to hit free agency, the Twins should have an adequate full-time replacement. What Wallner lacks in defensive metrics, he should more than make up for between his throwing arm and his bat. The Twins are preparing to slot Wallner right in to replace Kepler in 2025. Not only has Wallner been the one to slide over to right field in Kepler’s absence, but he’s also taken Kepler’s role as the left-handed hitter in the lineup to play every day, regardless of matchup. While he hasn’t fared particularly well against southpaws so far, it’s encouraging that the Twins appear to be preparing him for a full-time role in 2025. Wallner remains far from a perfect player. His strikeout rate still sits above 35%, but his performance is partially anchored to the start of the season. It’s unlikely that we ever see Wallner significantly cut down the strikeouts like we saw with Trevor Larnach this year, but we’re approaching the point where we have to accept that he’s capable of making it work anyway. He may not be the guy you want up to move a runner over, but his swing-and-miss, high-powered profile is much more of a complement to the current Twins lineup. Without multiple players like Miguel Sanó or Joey Gallo in the fold, the Twins can afford to have someone with Wallner’s profile playing every day. The perception of Wallner has probably skewed toward him being underrated. Strikeouts are frustrating, and Wallner is one of the few hitters left in the Twins lineup who commit the mortal sin of striking out over 30% of the time. Last offseason, some accused Wallner of having a fluky second half that was sure to come crashing down due to his strikeout issues. They were proven right early on in 2024, and for some, that handful of early plate appearances may still carry weight in their mind. Matt Wallner’s numbers in his career are elite. After helping save the Twins offense in 2023, he’s done it again in 2024. For those who detest strikeouts to the point that nothing else a hitter does matters, Wallner will continue to be doubted. For those watching the impact he makes in the lineup every day, they know they’re watching a star offensive player. View full article

Max Kepler has had a long and successful career with the Twins and is set to hit free agency in 2025. Change can be difficult, but there are several reasons to believe the Twins will benefit from Kepler’s likely departure this offseason. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler has had many ups and downs in his Twins career, but it’s impossible not to recognize his contributions to a decade of Twins baseball. His longevity has placed him on several leaderboards in Twins' history. Twins fans are well aware that Max Kepler isn’t without blemishes in his player profile, but there are several situations we’ve seen play out with Kepler that have hurt the Twins' chances at times. Not all are Kepler’s fault, but it’s fair to consider how different things could look in 2025 without him, in a good way. Playing Through Injury Kepler fouled a ball off his knee on opening day and has been dealing with after-effects since then. About two weeks ago, it was reported that Kepler’s knee was acting up, and he was scratched on Sunday, August 25. Naturally, the Twins put him on the IL to recover… eleven days later. He played in just three games during that span and was 100% off limits at times as the Twins had several opportunities arise for pinch hitters, runners, etc., and couldn’t make a move. We’ve seen this between the Twins and Max Kepler on what seems like a yearly basis. The team seems to hold out hope that he can return before the mandated 10 days should they officially place him on the Injured List. Perhaps this year they were extra desperate to not be without Kepler while also missing Buxton and Correa. Unfortunately, the Twins have been playing without "Max Kepler" for months, as he’s posted a .600ish OPS since June 1. One could argue that the reward of getting a hobbled Kepler back onto the field as soon as possible is outweighed by an already banged-up roster playing short for so long. The Twins would disagree. This gets into a theme that’s become hard to deny when it comes to Kepler. While he’s a fine player, the Twins look at him as much more of a contributor than his career numbers say he is. Every player takes the field at less than 100% during the grind of the MLB season, but the Twins have made a habit of delaying the inevitable on Max Kepler when he’s been downright injured. It has sometimes hurt the team, and the dip in production during those periods will likely affect Kepler’s market this winter. Platooning Returning to the theme of the Twins overvaluing Kepler, he’s become the default left-handed hitter to remain in the lineup against southpaws over names such as Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. While no left-handed hitter is likely to carve out a career-long sample of mashing same-handed pitching, Kepler has had enough data to draw from to conclude that he shouldn’t be hitting against left-handed pitchers. In almost 1100 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Kepler is slashing .221/.292/.363 (ironically, a better pace than his last 3 months of 2024). It’s doubtful he will figure things out in his 30s. It may be a case of the Twins deferring to his defense, which is fair considering that's a known advantage he has over several of the other options. His departure this offseason would open opportunities for other left-handed hitters or platoon players like Austin Martin or Michael Helman. There may not be any surefire option to replace him in those matchups, but the Twins have no shortage of candidates who could come through. Defensive Flexibility It’s become public knowledge that Kepler does not want to play center field. We’ve seen several occasions when Byron Buxton is out for long periods with no good options to replace him, and Kepler remains in right field despite his capability of at least filling in up the middle. The Twins made a point of insulating the position the last few years, knowing that Buxton would miss time and Kepler would not be an option to fill in. Fans certainly have their thoughts on Kepler’s preference, but looking at the situation objectively, it's a bit odd. The team has had a ton of innings up for grabs in center field over the last few years, but Kepler has remained in the corner despite his capability to slide over. Suppose the Twins could count on Kepler to fill in at center field. In that case, they’d have likely operated very differently the last few offseasons, not to mention the added flexibility it would add to the lineup on a day-to-day basis. Kepler’s offensive numbers would also be much more appealing coming from a premium defensive position rather than the corner outfield, where the bar to clear at the plate is typically higher. In 2025, the Twins can keep players like Willi Castro out of center field while keeping him in the everyday lineup with so much playing time opening. Perhaps if someone like DaShawn Keirsey Jr. makes the team, he'll be more open to shifting between outfield positions considering he's a plus defender at any of them. Being much less frigid with playing time in right field will open all kinds of opportunities. Logistically, it’s hard to envision a Max Kepler return in 2025. The team has several current and upcoming options to fill his playing time moving forward, and a left-handed corner outfielder will be the least of their needs next season. Bringing back a 32-year-old player coming off of the season he’s had with so many ready replacements would surely be a poor investment at any cost, given the budgetary restraints. Unless the Twins' affinity for Kepler outweighs several layers of teambuilding logic (don’t rule it out), what has been a successful Twins career for Max Kepler will end after this season. There would undoubtedly be a Max Kepler-sized hole on the Twins roster in 2025, but it won’t all be bad news. Do you agree? View full article