Cody Pirkl

The French-Canadian God of Walks hasn’t had much success this season, but he’s been a changed man at the plate. Finally abandoning his overly patient plate approach, he's worth watching as a Twins breakout hitter in 2025. Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images Edouard Julien’s patient plate approach was taken advantage of by opposing pitchers last season. While he didn’t hint at being more aggressive, he did recognize his need to compete against non-fastballs this season to bounce back. So far, in 2025, he’s been able to do both. His sophomore campaign was a massive disappointment for Julien, whose patient approach sometimes crossed over into outright passivity. Opposing pitchers put together a rock-solid scouting report against him, as evidenced by Julien leading the league in called strikeouts—despite spending a good chunk of the season at Triple A. It was time for Julien to make a big adjustment, and that’s precisely what he’s done. For the first time in his major-league career, Julien is swinging at more than half the pitches he sees. After constantly finding himself down in the count last season, he’s no longer willing to let the borderline pitches sneak by. While he hasn’t worked counts and taken walks as much as we’ve come to expect, he’s also cut down on the strikeouts so far this season. The quality of contact has also remained steady in the early going. Julien’s hard-hit rate is back to the level it was in his breakout rookie season, and his barrel rate is better than it’s ever been. He’s not just selling out to try to make contact of any kind, he’s consistently putting a charge into the ball. More encouraging is Julien’s performance against non-fastballs. Last season, he had no chance in non-fastball counts, and pitchers repeatedly attacked him with soft stuff when he was behind. While Julien may not be punishing fastballs like we’ve seen him do in the past, it’s hard to imagine he’s lost his ability to do so long-term. More importantly, the talk of spring training regarding Julien was his need to compete against other pitches, and so far, he’s doing so at a level we’ve never seen from him before. While the sample size is small, it coincides with a change in approach, which should always be given at least some attention. It's not just that he's timing his swing to the softer stuff, either—though there might be truth in that, and he might need to make a next wave of adjustments because of it, so he can catch up to the heat. Julien is also hitting from a slightly more spread-out stance, and using a slightly shorter stride this year. That's allowed him to make contact farther in front of his own body, and to catch the ball in front of home plate—which usually means more thump, particularly against breaking and offspeed pitches. Julien likely still has a bit to iron out with his plate approach in 2025. Swinging so often can also be taken advantage of, particularly when chasing pitches outside the zone. Julien has chased nearly 30% of the time this season, a notable increase from the 18% rate he showed in 2024. While his strikeout rate has declined, his per-swing whiff rate has increased from 30.9% to 35.7%. It’s hard to expect Julien to come out this season with a completely different plate approach and have it optimized, but this is a start. Instead of looking for the perfect pitch, it appears he’s more willing to expand what he’s hunting for, and so far it’s worked. Julien Hit.mp4 Julien has shown plenty to be excited about early this season. Watching him take strike three so consistently in 2024 became maddening, and we’re seeing some encouraging signs of him putting that tendency in the rearview mirror. He's a different hitter in 2025. Can he keep it up? View full article

The Twins' 2022 first-round pick has returned to Triple-A in his rehab assignment, and his return to the Twins is looming. With no shortage of candidates, which player on the current roster should be replaced? Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images Brooks Lee was never a lock to make the Opening Day roster out of spring training, and in different circumstances, he may have remained in St. Paul for some time, even after his rehab assignment ended. Given the Twins' poor start, however, the plan will likely be to get Lee back up as soon as he’s ready. Which player stands to lose their job? Unfortunately, there are a few viable candidates. Mickey Gasper Gasper is a great story, but we may be seeing why it’s taken so long for him to get a shot at the MLB level. His discerning eye at the plate is his calling card. To his credit, he’s walked 20% of the time. He’s also struck out 40% of the time and has only one hit, effectively canceling out the walks. Gasper hasn’t been able to punish pitches in the zone, as even his one hit was a dribbler that barely left the infield. If pitchers have no concerns filling up the strike zone, Gasper’s primary tool dries up. If he were a stronger defensive player, Gasper would be a solid bench option, but that’s not proven to be the case. Despite being labeled a catcher when the Twins acquired him, the team clearly doesn’t see him that way. He’s played first base, but his size has already cost him on one occasion at that position. He also made a tough error on Tuesday night in Kansas City at second base, where he played for the first time this season. He doesn’t have much immediate utility to the roster or a track record to wait on, making Gasper the likeliest player to lose out upon Lee’s return. Jose Miranda While it’s a long shot, there’s certainly a world where Jose Miranda gets demoted back to St. Paul. Aside from a big three-run homer against Houston, he’s looked completely lost at the plate. Miranda’s free-swinging ways have been on full display. He's had, seemingly, no idea what’s a ball and what’s a strike. If the Twins feel like Miranda would benefit from seeing lesser pitching to get back into a groove, St. Paul could be an option. Miranda has done a fine job filling in at third base, but Lee would be an upgrade defensively. He has rarely seen time at first base, and with the way Harrison Bader is being used, there are much better options for the DH spot. If the Twins decide Lee is going to play a lot of third base, a Miranda demotion becomes realistic. Edouard Julien The Twins’ view of Edouard Julien has soured, making him a sleeper pick of this trio. Julien is no longer a lock to start, even against right-handed pitching. While he’s barreled some balls so far this season, he doesn’t have the production to show for it. These barrels have also come at the expense of Julien’s plate approach. He’s chasing nearly 30% of pitches outside the zone and is whiffing over 35% of the time. This level of aggressiveness is a 180° from the passiveness he's shown in the past, but that seems to have been an overcorrection. There are reasons for optimism, but it may take time for Julien to hone this new plate approach, and it may be easier to do so in Triple-A. Most concerning for Julien was Gasper starting over him at second base on Tuesday. Gasper learned this position on the fly in spring training, and the Twins preferred him there on Tuesday. while Julien served as the DH. Gasper made an error, but Julien has made plenty of those himself in the last two years, and he’s starting to look like a player without a defensive home. It may be more telling if Julien isn’t optioned back to Triple-A, as it would indicate the Twins are no longer prioritizing getting him everyday at-bats. Julien has found himself in a precarious spot. These three all deserve a demotion in different ways, and to different degrees. It’s become clear that Lee needs to be up as soon as he’s ready, to shore up the defense and add a new face to an already stale roster. Which player should be the one headed back to St. Paul? View full article

His career has had many ups and downs—some due to injury, and some due to the nature of his plate approach. He can run white-hot for long periods, and then turn ice-cold without warning. To begin 2025, we’ve seen the latter. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images At the midway point of last season, José Miranda looked like he had hit his way back into the Twins' plans. He slashed .325/.366/.522 in the first half, but suffered a back injury and posted a .543 OPS to finish the season. As a result, the Twins didn’t trust him to become the full-time first baseman headed into 2025. In a small sample this season, he’s proven their decision correct. Miranda was a late-blooming prospect. It took him a few years to turn his ability to make frequent contact into an ability to do damage. Even as he ascended through the minor leagues, his consistency was always the question, as his lack of patience canceled out his lack of swing-and-miss. That's precisely what we’ve seen from him (at his worst) at the MLB level. So far this season, Miranda’s plate approach has continued to hold him back. The Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee injuries have allowed him to play in every game thus far, but he has done little to seize the opportunity. Miranda whiffing at nearly 33% of pitches is likely the result of the small sample, but the rest of his profile affirms the concerns many have long harbored about him. He’s chased over 40% of pitches outside the zone, which has always been his chief flaw. It’s resulted in minimal hard contact, which will continue even as the whiff rate stabilizes. We’re watching the worst version of Miranda right now. We’ve seen it before, and so far in 2025, it appears he hasn’t ironed out these tendencies. We know he can be a force at the plate when locked in and 100% healthy, but he’s continually bounced between extreme highs and extreme lows in his career, with little in between. When he’s seeing pitches in the zone, his ability to make contact has resulted in some memorable performances. When pitchers decide not to throw him anything to hit, he’s taking the same swings and badly slumping. It also results in very low walk rates, and Miranda has yet to earn a free pass this season. We still aren’t sure of the timelines for Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis, but Miranda will have to go on a run offensively before either of them returns. The Twins have no shortage of options in the DH spot, where Miranda will likely need most of his playing time to come from when another third baseman is ready to take over in the field. The Twins are doubtful of him, considering he’s been hitting in the 8th spot against right-handed pitching. It’s up to Miranda to prove them wrong. A major-league hitter can make a living chasing pitches and making frequent contact. Twins fans got to experience the highs and lows of this strategy for years when Eddie Rosario was roaming the outfield. It’s a difficult needle to thread regarding sustained performance, though, and it typically doesn’t age well. The Twins, notably, cut bait with Rosario in his last year of arbitration at age 29 and were proven correct. The hope was that Miranda could evolve at the plate to become more well-rounded and consistent. The early returns in 2025 show the same problematic plate approach, and as he nears 27 years of age, the likelihood of adjusting has significantly declined. He may always be a feast-or-famine hitter, cut from the opposite end of the same cloth as hitters such as Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano. It’s an important year for Miranda, and he’s gotten off to a discouraging start. While the sample size is minuscule, many of his past deficiencies at the plate have been alive and well so far. Can he turn it around before another third baseman is ready to return? View full article

Good news for players like Mickey Gasper and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. meant bad news for Austin Martin today. What’s next for the former top prospect left off the Opening Day roster? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Twins made a series of announcements this week, awarding roster spots to several players who will travel north with the team when the regular season begins this week. Austin Martin is on the outside looking in, raising significant questions for the 26-year-old former fifth overall pick. Several roster spots have opened up unexpectedly on the position player side this spring, as Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee opened the season on the IL. While disappointing, this created an opportunity for a handful of players. At this point, it must be alarming that the Twins perceive Austin Martin so far down the depth chart. Offensively, Martin has struggled to make good on his draft pedigree at almost every stop in the minor leagues. He’s often displayed impressive plate discipline and ability to make contact but hasn’t been able to develop any power whatsoever throughout his career. He has yet to slug .400 in an entire season, which leaves a murky path to being anything close to a regular in the MLB. Even with an 18.3% walk rate at the MLB level in 2024, he was a below-average hitter. The hope was that Martin’s athleticism could still earn him a bench spot and afford him more time to seize an opportunity and develop further. Unfortunately, Martin hasn’t been able to translate that athleticism to the defensive side of his game, which is likely what cost him an Opening Day roster spot. Martin saw significant playing time in the infield throughout his minor league career despite the Blue Jays and Twins having little faith that he would stick there long term. The hope was that Martin would immediately become a strong outfielder defensively because of his raw physical talent when they finally made the change. So far, in his brief MLB action, this has not proven to be the case. Martin was a negative defensively at every position the Twins tried him at in 2024. His speed hasn’t been able to compensate for his lack of instincts at these positions, leaving him without a defensive home. The lack of confidence in Martin’s ability to contribute on either side of the ball will result in him spending the beginning of his age-26 season in St. Paul. He’s already performed there as well as can be expected over the last two seasons, which begs the question of what precisely the Twins need to see from him to trust him at the MLB level. Martin is a depth piece, behind several players at multiple positions on the depth chart, with several top prospects approaching who may quickly surpass him. Luke Keaschall will warrant playing time at second base. Emmanuel Rodriguez will see time in center field at some point this season. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. will likely play ahead of him if he gets squeezed off the MLB roster. It’s not a good spot for Martin to be. Austin Martin could further develop his outfield defense to at least earn a bench spot in the future, but time is likely running out for the former headliner of the Jose Berrios trade to work his way into the Twins plans. He has nothing left to prove in Triple-A, and the Twins don’t feel he can help them at the MLB level. It will take quite a series of events for Martin to have a chance to establish himself in Minnesota at this point, raising the question of whether this opportunity may have to come elsewhere. Monday’s roster cuts were a worst-case scenario for Austin Martin and raised some significant questions about his future with the Minnesota Twins. Is his time about to run out? What should the Twins do with Austin Martin? Where does he go from here? Let us know in the comments. View full article

Kind of a lot to address here for me on mobile, so I'll just say this: I didn't only cite Paddack's ERA as the reason he's a worthy back end starting pitcher. I know you say you care about results, so none of this is likely meaningful, but Paddack pitched much better than his near 5.00 ERA he wound up with. The projection systems agree by the way. Steamer projects a 4.15 ERA for him in 2025, while the worst projection for him is a 4.41. For many people, this means absolutely nothing, which is their prerogative. Many of his numbers last season point to him deserving much better results though, and the projection systems value that and see what he could provide with the skills he's shown while healthy.

Absolutely true, but I don't think there's significant data showing that moving him to the bullpen where he'll empty the tank in shorter stints will keep him healthy either. This is something I would have liked to see them try earlier with Matt Canterino, but that's because he was a young highly drafted arm with team control who hadn't impacted the team in any way since being drafted. Paddack has shown the ability to perform like at least a back end starting pitcher when healthy over his career, and is currently healthy and built up to start the season in the rotation.

This is a common argument, but I assume you're referencing David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who each have their own concerns. Festa wasn't trusted to turn the lineup over last season which strained the bullpen. He also made some mechanical adjustments and really struggled this spring. Zebby had a very tough audition last season after going from A Ball to the MLB. If either had done enough to earn the spot over Paddack, I would assume the Twins would have been happy to give Paddack to another team and save the salary.

I just think this scale sets you up for disappointment. By these measures Pablo Lopez falls into the #4-5 starter range by last seasons measures. How often do MLB teams have a consensus back end starter put up a season on par with 2024 Pablo Lopez?

They don't need him in the bullpen either, though. Worst case scenario he either struggles or gets injured down the line and Zebby or Festa make the 5 minute trip from CHS field at that point. There isn't a reason to make that decision right now.

The bar for a back end starting pitcher is pretty low. Go look at the depth charts for the Mets, Yankees, Astros etc. It's unrealistic to expect an entire rotation of top end starting pitchers. Paddack also allowed almost 1/3 of his total runs between two starts, which is exactly why it's worth looking at more just just ERA.

The veteran right-hander made the Twins’ Opening Day rotation, and it seems like this decision was never in doubt. Some may argue this is based on his salary, but he earned this opportunity. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Coming off another injury-plagued season, Chris Paddack looks to bounce back in 2025 and reestablish his value before hitting free agency. Despite being far from a sure thing, he’ll have a rotation spot from the get-go. The Twins have several other worthy candidates for his role, but Paddack has earned it. In three years with the Twins organization, Paddack has yet to make a significant impact. The shine of his early career has worn off, as he’s struggled with injuries and inconsistency. After another season-ending injury in 2024, the Twins stuck with Paddack, instead of dumping his salary this offseason or simply awarding a younger arm with his rotation spot. There are several arguments to support this decision, including roster construction, finances, and the maintenance of organizational depth. Still, Paddack himself has done his part to justify it. Paddack’s 2024 season was underwhelming, but far from a failure. In 88 innings, he posted an ERA of just under 5.00, with his peripherals (such as FIP and xFIP) suggesting that better times may have been ahead had he stayed healthy. He was on pace to be worth around 2 Wins Above Replacement in FanGraphs's calculation, which would be a more-than-capable back-end starting pitcher in any rotation. Michael Lorenzen signed with Kansas City this winter for $7 million. Mike Soroka signed with Washington for $9 million. A 37-year-old Alex Cobb pitched 16 innings last season and signed with Detroit for $15 million. If we look at Paddack alongside those hurlers, he fares well. His health concerns are no reason to keep him from the Opening Day rotation; he can be swapped out anytime. Speaking of health, Paddack has given the Twins no reason to doubt where he’s at. He’s struck out 26.7% of hitters he’s faced this spring, and has a walk rate of just 3.3%. His surface-level performance won’t blow anyone away, but four of the seven runs he’s allowed this spring came in his first appearance on March 7th. More recently, Paddack has shown signs of a pitcher the Twins haven’t seen since he returned in a bullpen role in 2023. Rocco Baldelli noted as much, saying it’s the best he’s seen Paddack pitch. One outing in spring training only matters so much, and the rotation battle was never much of an actual competition. Still, for Paddack to dominate as he did so close to the regular season has to count for something. When healthy, Paddack was more than serviceable in 2024 and has looked better as spring training has ramped up. While pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa are more exciting options who are likelier to figure into the long-term picture, neither is without concerns of their own, and having to earn a spot by dominating in St. Paul isn’t the worst thing. We’ll see them both this season, but keeping Paddack in the organization and stretched out as a starter best allows them to manage the eventuality of injuries. Who knows what Chris Paddack’s ceiling is at this point, or how he’ll hold up physically in 2025? For now, he’s earned a rotation spot, based on his performance in 2024 and how he’s looked this spring. Do you agree? View full article

That's totally my bad, I've had my mind on whiffs for most of this conversation and those two stats always make my head spin. Swinging strike rate is valuable, and I can't check it right this moment, but I imagine he wasn't exactly cruising along in that department before his last outing either. And swinging strike rate is another metric he declined in in 2024. I have no problem with anyone defense more to swinging strike rate as an indicator because generally I'm in that same camp. I will say CSW is typically my favorite, and that's way down at 23% this spring too. Paired with the overall lack of swing and miss so far, it's something I'll be watching very closely when the season starts.

I feel like you're interpreting my opinion as 2024 being some kind of disaster for him when that's not the case whatsoever. He lost a full tick on his fastball and the pitch had a negative run value. There were some weird potential luck related things with it, but it also lost two inches of vertical movement. His WPA was the worst of his career and he had more occasions of looking vulnerable than his first two seasons combined, and there are statistics that show why aside from his Savant percentiles. That's a problem when one pitcher makes up such a significant portion of the bullpens projected value. To see him struggle in ways beyond ERA this spring worries me personally. They can only afford so much of a decline.

For what it's worth, his swinging strike rate last spring was 25% when he had an oblique injury. While his last outing dragged it down, those first two outings you listed were also quite bad.

There's any number of arguments one could come up with regarding his first two seasons in which he was one of the top 2 or 3 relievers in baseball. There was no scouting report or MLB data to gameplay with in his rookie season for example. And I get the argument that all of spring is a small sample, but even without his last outing in which he didn't draw a single whiff, his whiff rates this spring would have been bad instead of disastrous as they are now. And yes, as the league sees him more and compiles more data, they're better able to prepare. He throws a pretty straight fastball that doesn't have much for standout characteristics aside from the velocity. For all we know, it could become very hittable if it drops below 100 mph. He wouldn't be the first. And I'm glad you're not concerned, I hope you're right. Some people prefer to ignore absolutely everything about spring training performance. I think there are still indicators that deserve attention.

It's not about his final stat line, it's about the numbers under the hood that lead to the stat line. In both regards, Duran has not had a good spring. I'm sure the answer to this is "spring doesn't matter", which is fine if you feel that way, but I personally think at least some things do actually matter in the spring, especially when the season is right around the corner.

I'm a pretty firm believer that fastball characteristics matter. Duran's fastball is different than Joe Ryan's, whose 95 has more ride and therefore looks faster than the radar gun picks up on. Depending on the shape, extension, angle etc., there's a breaking point for every pitchers fastball where it's effectiveness drops off, which affects their whole repertoire. Just because one pitcher saw that drop off at 93 mph doesn't mean another will. It's absolutely possible and I'd argue likely that Duran can be less effective at 100 than 102. It's also valuable to identify concerning trends before they bubble over into actual performance. Statcast percentiles may be more indicative than just looking at a pitchers ERA, but things like chase rate also tell the story of how deceptive a pitcher is and how opposing hitters see them. Duran had a decline in that in 2024 despite his still solid season as I pointed out, but the bottom has fallen out this spring. If anyone wants to shrug off the slight decline he showed last year or the red flags he's shown this spring, I've got no issue with that. I just find it concerning and find it worth keeping a close eye on.

The Twins' young closer has had a disappointing spring, in several regards. It’s easy to shrug off spring training stats, but harder to do so when they're underpinned by troubling indicators. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Jhoan Durán suffered an oblique injury last spring, which delayed his season and prevented him from being his typically dominant self for most of 2024. His velocity never returned to its peak, and while his numbers remained solid, he wasn’t the anchor of the Twins bullpen, as we had grown accustomed to him being. His spring training performance thus far isn’t giving many signs that he’s set to return to his former dominance. In fact, it might be urging us to expect the exact opposite. Duran was a good pitcher in 2024 in terms of results. However, he lost a tick over his fastball, and for the first time in his career, there were occasions where it appeared opposing hitters could ambush him. His strikeout rate was below 30%, after being above 32% in his first two seasons. His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%, despite his chase rate dropping below 30%. A few percentage points here and there are negligible, but there’s likely a cliff at some point as these peripherals trend down. Hitters weren’t as fooled by Durán’s stuff as they had been in his first two seasons, and it coincided with a notable dropoff in velocity. The Twins would be fine with the 2024 version of Durán, but any further loss of his dominance would be worrisome, making his spring performance all the more notable. Duran’s whiff rates are at an all-time low in spring training, and not by a matter of a few percentage points. His velocity hasn’t rebounded, and his ability to get swings and misses isn’t just lower than usual; it’s been flat-out bad. His spring whiff rate of 11.8% puts him below any pitcher with at least 200 batters faced in 2024, and it’s less than half of his 2024 spring whiff rates, when he turned out to be injured. While it cannot be emphasized enough that spring stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, this degree of dropoff is beyond worrisome. Even if he’s been “working on things” during games that don’t matter, Durán has shown no signs of his dominant self at any point, and Opening Day is right around the corner. Pablo López has also gotten hit hard this spring, which can be attributed to that vague notion of working on stuff and caring little for results, but his velocity has also ramped up along the way as he approaches the regular season. Sometimes, spring training data does matter. It mattered for Matt Wallner last season, when his strikeouts carried over into the regular season and ultimately landed him in St. Paul. It mattered for Durán himself, when his decline in velocity and whiff rate turned out to be the result of an injury. When the struggles are this significant, especially for a reliever who declined in several areas last season, it’s worth wondering whether there are significant problems ahead. Perhaps there’s a switch flipped when Opening Day arrives for Durán, but in each previous season of his career, he had rounded into form by now. Even if he’s toying around with new approaches or dialing back his velocity on purpose, it must be notable to see such a lack of dominance from a reliever who had previously been one of the most feared in baseball. While most spring training performances don’t correlate with the regular season, Durán may be in trouble in 2025 if any portion of it does. Durán has much more going on than surface-level struggles in meaningless spring training games. His last outing was the worst of the spring, and his entire body of work looks nothing like the dominant reliever the Twins needed him to be. Is it time to worry? View full article

Agreed. I look at the system now and see more options close to the MLB level at 2B, which is why I'd argue Brooks should see the most time at 3B rather than having to bounce back and forth. Of course best case scenario is Royce comes back and stays healthy and pushed Lee off, I just find that hard to plan on at this point.