Cody Pirkl

Cole Sands is the most recent in a line of former starting pitching prospects to find their footing in the Twins' bullpen. He’s been nothing short of dominant in 2024, but in a very weird way. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports As a former fifth-round pick, Cole Sands never had an elite pedigree as a prospect. His fastball was in the low 90s, but he limited walks and he had a plus breaking ball. The most obvious path for Sands in a relief role was to lean on his breaking ball, as we’ve seen with players like Griffin Jax. Sands is finding his success in a much different way. The name of the game when it comes to relievers is typically to simplify their arsenal and focus on what they do best. Instead, as Cole Sands transitioned to a reliever, his pitch mix got more diverse. He introduced a splitter last year, throwing more than the breaking ball. In 2024, his most used pitch is a 90 mph cutter. The cutter has drawn whiffs over 30% of the time, allowing an exit velocity of just 78 mph. Sands throws it just a touch more than his four-seamer, which has climbed up near 95 mph on average. That extra tick surely helps, but it’s fair to wonder whether the pitch also benefits from a more diverse arsenal to complement it. He has yet to allow a hit on the pitch. The splitter is mainly used against left-handed hitters and has a 42.9% whiff rate. Between this and the cutter, Sands suddenly has two plus pitches to attack hitters with, not to mention the expected boost in velocity. Sustaining this, though, will depend on whether Sands can improve on the breaking ball, his calling card as a prospect. The pitch has yet to draw a single swing and miss in 2024. The question to consider at this point isn’t just whether Sands can continue with his performance; it’s what to do with him if it does. If he’s armed with a repertoire that includes a usable cutter, splitter, and curveball, he may be deserving of a chance to stretch back into a starting role and see what happens. There’s room in the Saints' rotation, and the Twins could certainly use the depth. Is this to say that Cole Sands has established himself as a staple of their pitching staff? Not necessarily. The sample size is still tiny, and relievers are fickle. What we’ve seen so far suggests that he’s a different pitcher than the one the Twins drafted, or even the one we all watched just last year. Those who thought Cole Sands could succeed were probably picturing him doing it differently. Regardless of the expectations, Sands has been convincingly good. He appears to be taking the leap that some expected he could in recent years; he’s just doing it in a weird way. View full article

They did try a sign and trade. On the Patreon, they noted the Twins believed if they non tendered him that he would have been the best shortstop on the FA market. Now Willi Castro is the backup SS. That in itself is a misjudgement of his value. You can choose to believe whatever you'd like, but there are multiple arguments based on the free agent market and how they've used him this year that says they misjudged his value.

Based solely on the fact that Farmer isn't the backup SS, that $6.3m was an overpay without even considering his performance so far. Farmer was surprised he was brought back, and if you're a Gleeman & the Geek listener, Twins sources themselves admitted that they misjudged that decision. Is that the main issue with the team right now? No, but it's hurting them.

I disagree. Rotation-even if Paddack and Varland turn things around, they're going to need depth to make it through the season. We knew that before they were getting shelled every 5th day. Woods Richardson is the only somewhat meaningful depth they have. That's going to cost them at some point. 1B/DH - even if Santana plays to the level he did last season, he's not the caliber of hitter we hoped they'd add this winter. Another legit bat would have helped soften the blow of the injuries to players we knew had injury histories. Farmer - This was always a questionable decision. Farmer himself was surprised by it. Even if he isn't a total disaster the rest of the year as he has been, that salary is an overpay for a team that cut payroll. There's literally no arguing that point. People can cite his leadership all they want. He's a spot starter vs lefties, and apparently isn't even the backup at SS anymore. They probably could have non tendered him and brought him back for $2-3m. I also don't believe setting a cutoff for analysis out 15 games further is any less arbitrary than doing it right now. There's no magical deadline where it's appropriate to form opinions.

I think we've seen enough the last few years to confidently say they're at least 2-3 months away from moving on from Santana. He could go hitless for the rest of the season and likely still be on the roster in July. That's just how they operate. Whether it's them not wanting to admit that they made a bad decision, or having way too much faith in veteran player, they don't cut the cord. See Joey Gallo.

The Minnesota Twins are treading water with their current health situation, and they’re trying to stay afloat until critical players return. Three decisions the team made this winter are already making this task more difficult. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports With several star players out already, the Twins' depth is immediately being tested. Unlike in previous years (when insulating the roster was a priority), however, the payroll situation left the team exposed. Three choices they made, in particular, are coming back to haunt them now. Letting It Ride with the Rotation In 2023, the Twins opened the season with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland in Triple-A as depth arms. It wasn’t long until they were both needed, and each wound up carrying a substantial workload, even though the Twins had one of the healthier rotations in baseball. This year, they did the opposite. Their only starting pitching depth was Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick in St. Paul, with Varland opening the season in the rotation. Headrick is currently on the IL, and Varland is getting hammered in MLB so far. Several options were available for a reasonable price, but the Twins put a hard stop on spending. It’s possible Varland could iron out his issues in the minor leagues, but regardless of performance, he will get a lot more run in the MLB rotation. Through 14 innings, he has a 3.21 HR/9 and an 8.36 ERA. The Twins did, of course, acquire Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade in late January. They were rolling the dice on his elbow, knowing that an injury had shortened his 2023 season and that he wasn't entirely out of the woods in terms of needing surgery. Indeed, he did, and he's now out for the season. Though it was necessitated by their ownership-enforced financial constraints, the gamble on DeSclafani turned out to be a calamitous one. Going Cheap at 1B/DH Many Twins fans hoped for another high-upside bat this winter, but it wasn’t in the cards. Instead, 38-year-old Carlos Santana was brought in for his sure-handed defense and discerning eye at the plate. He was immediately considered an everyday player, despite his pedestrian .724 OPS from the left side in 2023. In 2024, fans are begging for pedestrian output from the veteran first baseman. Santana has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. At his age, many are already starting to wonder if the Twins caught him at the end of the road. There are no signs of his once-elite plate discipline, and he’s striking out more than ever. His slash line of .135/.224/.154 is good for an 11 wRC+. With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day. The front office may have targeted Santana regardless of payroll, with him having spent years in Cleveland and having veteran status. Their choice not to (or inability to) aim higher has already hurt the team, as Santana has been the least valuable player on the roster with a -0.4 fWAR. The payroll situation and his status as a veteran will almost surely afford him extra time on the roster, as we’ve seen so often. Tendering Kyle Farmer Farmer had a solid 2023 with the Twins, but his $6.3 million projected salary seemed like an easy non-tender situation, so much so that Farmer himself was surprised when the Twins brought him back. That decision has looked worse and worse ever since. The Twins went on to massively cut payroll, making that dollar amount a real headscratcher for a 33-year-old weak-side platoon player. That money could have been much better spent on an arm to push Varland into a depth role or put toward first base to find a better option than Santana. The case could be made that we’re lucky to have him, now that he’s needed on a near-everyday basis, but Farmer has been right there with Santana as one of the least valuable players on the roster, despite not seeing the field nearly as often. The cherry on top of the Farmer situation is that, with Correa out, he doesn’t even appear to be the primary shortstop. His price tag becomes even more questionable if he’s mostly an option at non-premium positions. The amount of money is small enough that it shouldn’t be an issue, but the Twins made it one with their payroll slashing. To a degree, the Twins were destined to struggle, given the number of injuries that have already occurred this season. While acknowledging this, it’s fair to note that decisions made along the way set them up for total catastrophe if a handful of players went down. It seems that the payroll situation made the bitter 2022 season a distant memory, and now all the Twins can do is hope the season isn’t already lost when their star players return. View full article

It's not about performance, it's about all of the players being used in a way that makes the most sense.

The Twins' offense has been hard to watch so far in 2024, and nothing will fix it other than the lineup making more contact and hitting with runners in scoring position. There is one roster change the Twins can consider for help. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are not shy about preferring platoon advantages, and they’ve built their team to include several players that help them set these matchups. A wrench was thrown into the plans when Royce Lewis was immediately injured, and the Twins were left with few options to replace him. So far, it appears they’ve chosen the wrong one. The Twins' choice to call up Austin Martin was perfectly understandable. He’s a versatile, athletic, right-handed hitter whose skillset should complement much of the Twins lineup. He's earned a shot at the MLB level. While he couldn’t play third base to replace Lewis, Kyle Farmer could and Martin could find himself platooning with Julien at second base. We could look back in a few years and see that Martin has become a solid contributor to the team, but the way the roster is currently utilized suggests the time may not be suitable for him to make his debut. For starters, Martin’s usage isn’t doing him any favors. He’s made one start in center field with three plate appearances. Not only is he not playing every day, but he’s just a “break glass in case of emergency” player. He appears to be the number one option for pinch-running and the last option when it comes to an opportunity at the plate. This was immediately obvious when Martin pinch-ran against the Royals and was pinch-hit for by Manny Margot in his first game. The Twins burned a roster spot to replace Martin with another right-handed, high-contact hitter. His one start in which Brady Singer shut out the Twins was his one chance to show his skills at the plate. Speaking of Manny Margot, the Twins' usage of him to begin the season has been questionable. He has yet to start a game, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher the Twins face. These opportunities so far have gone to Castro and Martin. Instead, Margot, a career .255/.308/.384 hitter, has pinch-hit in five of the Twins' six games to begin the season. Even though Margot posted a .665 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2023, these are the matchups he should be put in. The problem is that they’re solely coming off the bench when the “pinch-hit tax” comes into play. Even if Margot can perform at his career .760 OPS level against southpaws in these spots, he’s not exactly the caliber of hitter that will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Also worth noting is that some of these substitutions happen early enough that Margot gets at least one more plate appearance, often against a high-leverage right-handed reliever. So what other choice do the Twins have? Belief in Jose Miranda may be at an all-time low, but he’s a better roster fit for the current situation, and he’s showing flashes so far in St. Paul. Not only is he looking strong at the plate with exit velocities to match, but he’s begun playing third base again. It was assumed that the Twins didn’t see him as an option at the hot corner anymore, but perhaps that’s not the case. Margot would then become one of the primary outfielders with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, a role that would set him up for more success than seeing 100% of his plate appearances off the bench. While it would be a bummer for Martin to go back down, he would at least return to playing every day until he’s needed for a more regular role. It may be picking nits when the current offensive struggles are apparent, but there’s too much redundancy on the Twins bench. It’s not setting up the players involved for success and isn’t doing anything to help the Twins offensively. It may already be time to admit that the initial response to the Lewis injury needs to be adjusted, and Jose Miranda may be just the lever the Twins need to pull. View full article

Chris Paddack made his 2024 debut on Wednesday, in an eventual Twins win. Although this was his first start of the season, it’s worth exploring some trends and how they may inform his future in the rotation. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports Chris Paddack was far from sharp in his first big-league start since undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in 2022. In four innings, he allowed six hits and walked two. His two earned runs were a testament to how well he navigated the trouble he was constantly in and gave the Twins a chance to win, though. Aside from his final line, there were a few critical observations for the rest of Paddack’s 2024 season. Paddack averaged 94.3 mph on the fastball on Wednesday, up significantly from the 93 we saw in his brief 2022 debut with the Twins. Paddack was a fire-breathing reliever in his return to the mound in 2023, averaging 95.5 mph. Lower velocity was expected as he stretched back out, but the question was whether he could find the velocity he had before his second Tommy John. So far, so good, as Wednesday’s number is right in line with some of the best seasons of Paddack’s career. Also encouraging was Paddack’s ability to reach back for more when he needed it. He topped out at 96.1 on the fastball and found a few extra ticks whenever he was in trouble. It seems the raw stuff should be all the way back; it’s just a matter of how well he can sustain it over the course of the season. Aside from Paddack’s raw stuff, how he deployed it was also interesting. When the Twins acquired Paddack, their confidence in his ability to add a slider to his repertoire was a big topic. While he barely had a chance to throw it in 2022 before he got injured, it looked like an effective pitch. This spring, it was his major focus. On Wednesday, the slider was essentially a show-me pitch. He threw it just six times and didn’t generate any whiffs on it. Instead, he leaned on his fastball and changeup mix, with the occasional curveball--just as he did with the Padres before the trade. It was an effective formula at times, but it limited his ceiling. Paddack’s innings will likely be capped this season, so getting quality when he’s on the mound will be important. As a right-handed pitcher who’s held lefties to a .688 OPS in his career, getting righties out is the obvious way for him to take the next step. It’s likely what the Twins had in mind when they acquired him, and hopefully, the plan is to see that slider usage increase to neutralize same-handed hitters. Paddack’s first start of the season was similar to Louie Varland’s. He slightly missed his spots and racked up a high pitch count, often getting outs only once the string was all the way out. As a name on the relatively short list of pitchers to return from two Tommy John surgeries, Paddack showed flashes to be excited about. While rocky, Paddack’s first start of 2024 can be considered a success. The question now is where he goes from here. Perhaps his control and command can be as pinpoint as they were prior to his barrage of health-related setbacks. The Twins could improve his slider and make it a legitimate weapon. Either of these developments would be massive. Where does Paddack go from here? View full article

The jury is still out on him for sure, but they took a big risk scrapping his 2 seamer from last season and by stuff numbers it looks like it could pay off. They've had success stories like having Matt Wisler throw his slider more, but in Duarte's case they completely changed who he is as a pitcher. I'm very interested to see how it plays out.

I doubt Raya is up this year, but Festa should be. I'm not sure how people are still talking about SWR ahead of anyone on the depth chart. Maybe the spring training gains stick, but we have to see it first. Last year he had games where his fastball was in the mid 80s and he had major walk problems all year.

I'm an unabashed Dobnak lover, and I think it's fair for anyone to be a huge fan. The fact is that he's probably 9th on the depth chart at worst for the rotation, and they needed 11 starters last year. Pretty decent chance we see him this year so it's worth checking in.

The Minnesota Twins' bullpen will be tested over the next few weeks. With three of their top five relievers missing, someone must step up. One of their offseason waiver pickups may be a top candidate to do so. Daniel Duarte had the raw stuff to be a decent reliever with the Cincinnati Reds in 2023, but couldn’t put it all together. Now, with a bit of Twins magic and a golden opportunity, Duarte may find himself climbing the bullpen depth chart. Spring Training results are to be taken with a grain of salt, but his 12 strikeouts in 12+ innings were impressive, especially without a walk to temper their value. Free passes were arguably Duarte’s biggest problem in 2023. He may have walked a hitter in his regular-season debut, but he still looked like a candidate to move up the pecking order at the end of games. On a day when everyone standing on the mound in a Twins jersey was getting knocked around by the Royals, Duarte threw two scoreless innings with two strikeouts, while allowing one hit. He showcased a slider and averaged north of 96 miles per hour on the fastball. Both pitches generated whiffs at least a third of the time. He was typically a one-inning reliever in 2023, but he held his stuff through two innings on Sunday. It may be jumping the gun based on one appearance, but what we’ve seen is a fantastic sign. Duarte’s most-used pitch in 2023 was his sinker, which was incredibly effective in terms of overall results but only drew a 20% whiff rate. His slider was his fourth-most-used pitch. On Sunday, those two pitches traded places. The slider became a legitimate weapon, and his high-octane fastball seemed a lot more effective than it had at any point last season. Unsurprisingly, the Twins picked Duarte up to make him a slider-first pitcher. The pitch was effective for him in 2023, but it had an extra inch and a half of vertical drop against the Royals on Sunday. The hope is that a change in pitch mix and the tweaked movement on the slider helps Duarte’s fastball play up, after it allowed a .724 SLG with Cincinnati. The Twins have found this to be a winning formula in the past, even if the payoff is turning a player bouncing around the league into a solid middle reliever. At this point, such a development would be welcome, given the injuries to the bullpen. There is no apparent hierarchy behind Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax, but it would be a win for the Twins if Duarte could grab ahold of that job. The group will be much deeper, of course, when Jhoan Durán, Caleb Thielbar, and Justin Topa return in the coming weeks. Duarte isn’t expected to have the upside of Durán or Jax, but he has good enough stuff to aspire to a setup man ceiling. We’ve seen the Twins succeed with these kinds of pitch mix changes, and it’s fair to wonder whether Duarte’s 2024 success has everything to do with walks. If he’s throwing 96 mph with the weapon of a slider he showed on Sunday, the only thing that can hold him back is issuing free passes. The Twins currently have solid depth in the bullpen, even in light of their injury issues, but they could use someone taking a step forward. Duarte flashed that capability against the Royals. Could he be another under-the-radar success story? View full article

Randy Dobnak spent all of 2023 stuck in St. Paul, after being removed from the Minnesota Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins' payroll reduction and a lack of pitching depth should create opportunity. Could 2024 bring redemption? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Randy Dobnak) Randy Dobnak has been named the St. Paul Saints starter for the home opener. Then, after exactly the kind of twist we should have learned to expect from his career, inclement weather delayed that opener, and when it came, David Festa got the honor of toeing the rubber first. Dobnak responded with four superb innings as Festa' piggyback partner Saturday, though. Could it be the first step of a journey back to the big leagues? There’s no need to deep dive into what transpired with the payroll and roster this winter. The summary of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda departing and not being effectively replaced is all that matters for Dobnak. While it’s fair to hope that Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack can pick up a lot of the slack, the Twins will need more than the five starters in the Opening Day rotation, regardless of how well the campaign goes. As of Saturday, we have official confirmation that Anthony DeSclafani won't be among the shock troops, as he's set for a season-ending surgery. The rotation depth chart beyond the MLB level is an assortment of names with upside, but there’s no Ober or Louie Varland type like last year. We’re likely to see several arms get an opportunity. Dobnak is a different pitcher from the one we saw in 2019 and 2020. His bowling ball sinker, which was once an equalizer to any and all hitters, hasn’t been the same since the finger injury that ultimately cost him his roster spot. He’s reinvented himself, leaning more on his offspeed pitches and mixing in a four-seam fastball. His ERA over 5.00 in St. Paul last season may not be impressive, but his ability to limit the long ball is still a plus skill; he yielded just 12 homers in 126+ innings. Reports say that Dobnak has returned to the 93-MPH heat we saw from him at his peak. Indeed, though he only threw a few of the four-seamers Saturday, that was his average velocity on them. It would be easy to say that arms such as Simeon Woods-Richardson or Brent Headrick should get the first crack at an opportunity with the Twins due to their youth and theoretical long-term upside, and they're certainly ahead of him in line, given their possession of 40-man spots already. It’s worth noting, perhaps, that these two had similar struggles in Triple-A to Dobnak's recent ones. They may have the advantage regarding long-term team control, but Dobnak is due another $6.25 million over the next three years. While this amount (hopefully) won’t hold the Twins back financially in the coming years, Dobnak getting an opportunity and making a resurgence of any kind is in the best interest of all involved. What does Dobnak need to do to earn another shot? It’s hard to argue that Dobnak’s ability to limit homers will translate well to MLB, but his most significant issue in 2023 was issuing free passes. His walk rate over 10% was the worst he’s posted for any sustained period of his career. He’ll never be one to post strong strikeout rates, but if he can get back to the 5.5% career rate he put up before the injury to pair with his home run suppression, those two skills would likely be enough to find some success at the MLB level once again. To that end, the absence of any walks in his line is more important than the presence of six strikeouts Saturday. We know what a successful Dobnak looks like. Even if the run he went on to begin his career was unsustainable, his skills were enough for the Twins to invest a bit in his ability to contribute at the major-league level. His health in 2023 was probably the most essential part of his performance, and if he can build off of the adjustments he made last season, there will be plenty of opportunity for him at Target Field in 2024. It would be difficult to find a single Twins fan not rooting for Dobnak to earn another shot. One of the best stories in MLB in recent years, the former independent-ball pitcher and Uber driver still holds a place in the hearts of many in Twins Territory. Should he get another shot? View full article

How about their performances that determine whether they're on prospect lists? There's a reason Woods-Richardson was MLB.com's #24th ranked Twins prospect, and why Headrick isn't on the list at all for example. They both had near 5 ERAs in St. Paul last year and their underlying numbers weren't much better. There's a reason Dallas Keuchel was pitching for us last season. They didn't have anyone in Triple-A that looked like they could compete in the MLB. They have to be successful in the minors before they're even considered for the MLB roster.

Important to consider with Canterino: his career high in professional innings for a season is 37. I was surprised they didn't just make him a reliever when he came back as a 26 year old and the clock ticking on his team control. Now he's starting the season on the IL with an innings limit probably well below 100. I'm guessing when he's healthy again this time, we see them throw the plans for him to start out the window. If his body can even handle an MLB starters workload, it'll take multiple seasons to build up an innings floor.

I think you'll have to show your work on both counts to win me over. The Vazquez/Jeffers split pretty much always had more to do with the handedness of the opposing pitcher and/or how many days one caught in a row. Julien was pretty much always sitting as a result of the handedness of the opposing pitcher aside from from being lifted in late and close games for defensive purposes. Sonny Gray was the only groundball pitcher in the rotation last year, and Julien and Jeffers played when he pitched plenty. Look no further than the playoffs when the games counted the most and they both started when Sonny pitched.

I don't think adding Lorenzen now would stop them from adding at the deadline. We'd be talking about a higher tier of pitcher at this point. If we had two Varlands ready to go, I'd say ride with the younger guys. Unfortunately it's Varland who we hope is relatively safe, Festa who's thrown 12 innings in St. Paul, and then guys like Woods-Richardson who have pitched so poorly that they aren't even on most prospect lists anymore. I just fear the odds of multiple guys at that level working out are very very low.

That was before they lost their 5th starter. Of course Varland can replace him and maybe that's what they choose to do, but they've shown in the past that's not how they prefer to operate. I'm just hoping they can be coaxed into pushing payroll a bit further.

Varland won Minor League Pitcher of the year and debuted in 2022. Woods-Richardson and Headrick had near 5 ERAs in St. Paul last year. Tjose two in particular are miles behind where Varland was at the start of last season. I hope Festa will be good, but he threw 12 innings in Triple-A and doesn't have the pedigree of success and workload Varland did. Those are guys I'd like to see further down in the pecking order, because the reality is that if one of them is a halfway competent MLB starter for a couple years, that's a very good outcome.